Notre Dame Offense vs. LSU Defense
Senior QB Brady Quinn has overcome a slow start by finishing the regular season completing 63.4 percent of his throws for 3,278 yards and 35 touchdown passes. The one knock on Quinn and the Irish, though, is that they've failed to come up with the "big win" against a superior opponent. The senior gun-slinger has one more opportunity to rewrite his legacy vs. an LSU team that boasts the nation's fifth-ranked scoring defense. In its last showing at USC, Notre Dame's offense worked out of the shotgun with more three-and-four receiver sets than it had throughout most of the previous 11 games in 2006. One reason for the change in philosophy was the absence of injured TE John Carlson. The other, and perhaps the more prevalent reason, was to help neutralize the speed of USC's defense. While the Irish turned in a losing effort in The Coliseum that night, the offense was not to blame. In fact, the system was effective enough to believe that coach Charlie Weis will implement a similar package vs. an even faster LSU defense in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Carlson is practicing with the team and is expected to be fully recovered on Jan. 3rd. Fortunately for Weis and his staff, Carlson is a versatile weapon that can be used in-line as a traditional tight end, as well as "flexed" out as a slot receiver. He notched 46 receptions in 10 games played prior to his injury and at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, Carlson can present some matchup problems for the LSU defense. It also helps having one of the premier wide receiver tandems in the country working the perimeter in seniors Jeff Samardzija and Rhema McKnight, who have combined for 1,843 yards and 26 touchdowns on 134 receptions. LSU's secondary is experienced and talented with juniors Jonathan Zenon and Chevis Jackson starting on the corners and seniors LaRon Landry and Jessie Daniels starting at the two safety spots. While Zenon and Jackson are solid in coverage, neither can be expected to hold up one-on-one vs. Samardzija or McKnight on a consistent basis. That means there will be lots of pressure placed on Daniels and Landry to provide vertical help over the top without over-committing and leaving too much room for Quinn to find Carlson streaking down the seam.
LSU vs. Notre Dame
When: Jan. 3, 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Where: New Orleans
Pass protection has not been a strong suit for Notre Dame's offensive line this season. The unit ranks 92nd nationally in sacks allowed (30) and it will have its hands full trying to protect Quinn vs. LSU's swarming defense. Defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is not afraid to blitz, but he also is blessed with a defensive front four that generates consistent pressure without the help of its linebackers and defensive backs. In fact, DT Glenn Dorsey and DEs Tyson Jackson and Chase Pittman have combined for 17 of the team's 38 sacks. So even if Notre Dame does a good job of spreading the field with multiple-receiver sets and keeping LSU in nickel and dime personnel packages, Quinn is likely to still face consistent pass rush pressure throughout this game. Quinn has done a fine job of limiting his critical errors this season -- only five interceptions in 12 games played -- but he does have a tendency to get "happy feet" in the pocket. If Quinn gets hit several times early in the game and begins to tuck the ball too early in an attempt to buy extra time with his feet, LSU will have successfully neutralized Notre Dame's personnel advantages in the perimeter passing game. Also, if Quinn makes some ill-advised throws under duress, Landry (11 career interceptions) is the type of ballhawk that will make him pay. Notre Dame has not shown the ability to run the ball when it needs to this season, which is another reason to believe it will spread the field and put the ball in Quinn's hands. Junior RB Darius Walker is the fourth Irish running back to ever eclipse 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons and he has done so by netting 1,139 yards on 233 carries in 2006. Walker is a tough runner with good patience and vision. He also is a versatile back with excellent hands and good blocking skills. However, he lacks ideal size and power to run over defenders and he lacks ideal speed to turn the corner vs. faster defenses. In fact, Walker has failed to rush for 100 yards against a respectable run defense this season (Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, UCLA and USC) and he combined for only 81 rushing yards in the team's two losses. Do not expect that trend to reverse in the Sugar Bowl against the nation's 15th-ranked run defense. LSU's defensive front four is extremely quick and will give Notre Dame's offensive line all it can handle on running downs. The Tigers are getting tremendous linebacker play out of Darry Beckwith (MLB) and Ali Highsmith (SLB), who will take advantage of the room they are given to roam from sideline-to-sideline. Finally, while the first priority for DSs Landry and Daniels is in coverage, neither is afraid to mix it up in run support. Landry leads the team with 68 total tackles and Daniels ranks fifth with 46 stops on the season.
LSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
LSU's offense is hardly flawless, but it does match up extremely well vs. Notre Dame's much-maligned defensive group. The biggest disappointment for the Tigers this season has been their unreliable ground game. They have actually run the ball 79 more times than they have thrown, but six different players have 40 or more carries and none of them has eclipsed the half-century mark for rushing yards. In essence, LSU has depth at the running back position but no star has emerged from the unit. Jacob Hester, who led the team with 91 carries, is a bruising 228-pound junior that lacks elusiveness. Alley Broussard and Justin Vincent are good sized and experienced backs but neither has been able to regain his explosiveness after suffering respective knee injuries last season. Keiland Williams and Charles Scott, on the other hand, are promising talents but inconsistent performers. As usual, expect offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher to use a rotation early in the game before settling on the "hot hands" in the second half. With that in mind, it wouldn't be surprising if Williams winds up leading the team in rushing in this game. Williams finished the season strong and he's one of the fastest backs in the stable, which should allow him to consistently turn the corner on Notre Dame's slower defensive unit. Notre Dame's defensive front seven is disciplined but it still gives up too many yards per game on the ground (127.8). DTs Derek Landri and Trevor Laws do a good job of disrupting in the backfield and combined for 125 total tackles during the regular season. All the attention that Landri and Laws draw up front also frees up MLB Maurice Crum, who leads the team with 92 total tackles, to pursue the run from sideline-to-sideline. If LSU is to establish any semblance of a consistent rushing attack, it will take a great effort from its interior offensive line of OC Brett Helms and OGs Herman Johnson and Brian Johnson. QB JaMarcus Russell has made more of an impact running the football recently, so it will also be important for Notre Dame to track his movement when he sets up as a passer. However, Russell has emerged as one of college football's most dangerous offensive weapons during the second half of this season more so for his improved efficiency as a passer. The junior signal caller is showing more patience and better vision from within the pocket. He also is avoiding locking onto his primary target as much as he once did, which has led to more opportunities for his playmaking trio of receivers in Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis and Early Doucet. Notre Dame's secondary has struggled most vs. bigger and deeper wide receiver corps, as witnessed in losses to Michigan and USC. That's not good news vs. the trio of Bowe, Davis and Doucet, which has combined for 2,355 yards and 23 touchdowns on 163 receptions. Bowe has emerged as the most consistent of the three, but Davis will made some big plays thanks to his good size and reliable hands, and Doucet has a knack for coming up with clutch receptions on third downs and inside the red-zone. Irish CBs Mike Richardson and Terrail Lambert lack the speed to be left alone in man coverage with any type of frequency. As a result, defensive coordinator Rick Minter is forced to play a lot of conservative zone coverage. The only problem, however, is that DSs Tom Zbikowski and Chinedum Ndukwe lack ideal range in deep-half coverage, so there tends to be gaping holes in the cover-2 and cover-2 zones for an opposing quarterback to exploit. With that in mind, Notre Dame's only chance of keeping the LSU passing attack in check is to get consistent front four pressure on Russell. That means there will be a heavy onus on LDE Victor Abiamiri, who has notched 21 career sacks, and DT Landri, who is second on the team with seven sacks this season, to come up big as pass rushers in this game. If Minter is forced to get his linebackers and safeties overly involved in the blitz package, it will be a long night for the Irish faithful.
Special Teams
Notre Dame's special teams units have been inconsistent throughout the 2006 season, but it still owns a slight edge over LSU in this facet of the game. The highlight of the group is PT Geoff Price, who ranks sixth nationally with an average of 45.2 yards per attempt. Placekicking has been far more adventurous, though. PK Carl Gioia has missed four of his 12 field goal attempts and five extra points on the season. His long of the season is 40 yards and he has missed all three attempts from beyond that distance.
The Irish are more effective returning kickoffs than they are returning punts. Zbikowski averages nine yards per punt return, which was boosted by one 52-yard return for a score. On the season, Zbikowski has been far less explosive and not as sure-handed as in the past. The majority of the kickoffs have been handled by David Grimes, who is averaging 25.5 yards per return on the season. George West has also chipped in on kickoff returns and is averaging 20.3 yards on 10 attempts.
LSU PK Colt David has had a rollercoaster season. He has connected on six of 10 field goal attempts with a long of 45 yards. However, he has missed four of his seven attempts beyond 40 yards and he also had an extra point blocked in a close game vs. Ole Miss. Versatile Chris Jackson, who can also attempt field goals, handles the kickoff and punting duties. Though he generally gets good distance on his kicks, he has had some trouble with his directional skills in that department, which is something to keep an eye on when kicking to Grimes. Jackson has been solid as the team's punter, averaging 41.8 yards per attempt. However, he has had one punt blocked on the season. KORs Early Doucet and Trindon Holliday possess excellent speed and each can go the distance when he gets a seam. However, the kickoff return unit has struggled to consistently open creases this year, which explains why LSU ranks 46th nationally in this department. PR Craig Davis is explosive and he returned a punt 77 yards for a touchdown against Fresno State earlier this year.
Matchups
? Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn vs. LSU DS LaRon Landry
? LSU WR Dwayne Bowe vs. Notre Dame CB Mike Richardson
? LSU ROT Peter Dyakowski vs. Notre Dame LDE Victor Abiamiri
Scouts' Edge
LSU matches up brilliantly with Notre Dame on paper. For starters, Russell and his stable of thoroughbred receivers should have their way with a smaller, slower Irish secondary. Secondly, the Tiger defense has the speed to blanket Walker and the run game, while keeping consistent front four pressure on Quinn when he looks to throw. And finally, don't forget this is a virtual home game for LSU, which must travel less than 80 miles I-10 East to set up shop in the Superdome.
The sum of all those parts should equal a Tigers' blowout, right? Well, we're not so sure. After all, LSU is far from perfect. Its offense lacks consistent balance from the ground game and its special teams units have been pedestrian, at best, this season. The Irish, on the other hand, bring with them 18 senior starters that are sick and tired of hearing, "They can't win the big game." Quinn, Samardzija and McKnight are three of those seniors, and they should make enough big plays on offense to keep this contest closer than expected late into the fourth quarter. However, Notre Dame's defensive deficiencies will once again prove to be fatal, allowing LSU to come out on top of this high-scoring seesaw-like battle.
Prediction: Tigers 31, Fighting Irish 28
Senior QB Brady Quinn has overcome a slow start by finishing the regular season completing 63.4 percent of his throws for 3,278 yards and 35 touchdown passes. The one knock on Quinn and the Irish, though, is that they've failed to come up with the "big win" against a superior opponent. The senior gun-slinger has one more opportunity to rewrite his legacy vs. an LSU team that boasts the nation's fifth-ranked scoring defense. In its last showing at USC, Notre Dame's offense worked out of the shotgun with more three-and-four receiver sets than it had throughout most of the previous 11 games in 2006. One reason for the change in philosophy was the absence of injured TE John Carlson. The other, and perhaps the more prevalent reason, was to help neutralize the speed of USC's defense. While the Irish turned in a losing effort in The Coliseum that night, the offense was not to blame. In fact, the system was effective enough to believe that coach Charlie Weis will implement a similar package vs. an even faster LSU defense in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Carlson is practicing with the team and is expected to be fully recovered on Jan. 3rd. Fortunately for Weis and his staff, Carlson is a versatile weapon that can be used in-line as a traditional tight end, as well as "flexed" out as a slot receiver. He notched 46 receptions in 10 games played prior to his injury and at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, Carlson can present some matchup problems for the LSU defense. It also helps having one of the premier wide receiver tandems in the country working the perimeter in seniors Jeff Samardzija and Rhema McKnight, who have combined for 1,843 yards and 26 touchdowns on 134 receptions. LSU's secondary is experienced and talented with juniors Jonathan Zenon and Chevis Jackson starting on the corners and seniors LaRon Landry and Jessie Daniels starting at the two safety spots. While Zenon and Jackson are solid in coverage, neither can be expected to hold up one-on-one vs. Samardzija or McKnight on a consistent basis. That means there will be lots of pressure placed on Daniels and Landry to provide vertical help over the top without over-committing and leaving too much room for Quinn to find Carlson streaking down the seam.
LSU vs. Notre Dame
When: Jan. 3, 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Where: New Orleans
Pass protection has not been a strong suit for Notre Dame's offensive line this season. The unit ranks 92nd nationally in sacks allowed (30) and it will have its hands full trying to protect Quinn vs. LSU's swarming defense. Defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is not afraid to blitz, but he also is blessed with a defensive front four that generates consistent pressure without the help of its linebackers and defensive backs. In fact, DT Glenn Dorsey and DEs Tyson Jackson and Chase Pittman have combined for 17 of the team's 38 sacks. So even if Notre Dame does a good job of spreading the field with multiple-receiver sets and keeping LSU in nickel and dime personnel packages, Quinn is likely to still face consistent pass rush pressure throughout this game. Quinn has done a fine job of limiting his critical errors this season -- only five interceptions in 12 games played -- but he does have a tendency to get "happy feet" in the pocket. If Quinn gets hit several times early in the game and begins to tuck the ball too early in an attempt to buy extra time with his feet, LSU will have successfully neutralized Notre Dame's personnel advantages in the perimeter passing game. Also, if Quinn makes some ill-advised throws under duress, Landry (11 career interceptions) is the type of ballhawk that will make him pay. Notre Dame has not shown the ability to run the ball when it needs to this season, which is another reason to believe it will spread the field and put the ball in Quinn's hands. Junior RB Darius Walker is the fourth Irish running back to ever eclipse 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons and he has done so by netting 1,139 yards on 233 carries in 2006. Walker is a tough runner with good patience and vision. He also is a versatile back with excellent hands and good blocking skills. However, he lacks ideal size and power to run over defenders and he lacks ideal speed to turn the corner vs. faster defenses. In fact, Walker has failed to rush for 100 yards against a respectable run defense this season (Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan, UCLA and USC) and he combined for only 81 rushing yards in the team's two losses. Do not expect that trend to reverse in the Sugar Bowl against the nation's 15th-ranked run defense. LSU's defensive front four is extremely quick and will give Notre Dame's offensive line all it can handle on running downs. The Tigers are getting tremendous linebacker play out of Darry Beckwith (MLB) and Ali Highsmith (SLB), who will take advantage of the room they are given to roam from sideline-to-sideline. Finally, while the first priority for DSs Landry and Daniels is in coverage, neither is afraid to mix it up in run support. Landry leads the team with 68 total tackles and Daniels ranks fifth with 46 stops on the season.
LSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
LSU's offense is hardly flawless, but it does match up extremely well vs. Notre Dame's much-maligned defensive group. The biggest disappointment for the Tigers this season has been their unreliable ground game. They have actually run the ball 79 more times than they have thrown, but six different players have 40 or more carries and none of them has eclipsed the half-century mark for rushing yards. In essence, LSU has depth at the running back position but no star has emerged from the unit. Jacob Hester, who led the team with 91 carries, is a bruising 228-pound junior that lacks elusiveness. Alley Broussard and Justin Vincent are good sized and experienced backs but neither has been able to regain his explosiveness after suffering respective knee injuries last season. Keiland Williams and Charles Scott, on the other hand, are promising talents but inconsistent performers. As usual, expect offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher to use a rotation early in the game before settling on the "hot hands" in the second half. With that in mind, it wouldn't be surprising if Williams winds up leading the team in rushing in this game. Williams finished the season strong and he's one of the fastest backs in the stable, which should allow him to consistently turn the corner on Notre Dame's slower defensive unit. Notre Dame's defensive front seven is disciplined but it still gives up too many yards per game on the ground (127.8). DTs Derek Landri and Trevor Laws do a good job of disrupting in the backfield and combined for 125 total tackles during the regular season. All the attention that Landri and Laws draw up front also frees up MLB Maurice Crum, who leads the team with 92 total tackles, to pursue the run from sideline-to-sideline. If LSU is to establish any semblance of a consistent rushing attack, it will take a great effort from its interior offensive line of OC Brett Helms and OGs Herman Johnson and Brian Johnson. QB JaMarcus Russell has made more of an impact running the football recently, so it will also be important for Notre Dame to track his movement when he sets up as a passer. However, Russell has emerged as one of college football's most dangerous offensive weapons during the second half of this season more so for his improved efficiency as a passer. The junior signal caller is showing more patience and better vision from within the pocket. He also is avoiding locking onto his primary target as much as he once did, which has led to more opportunities for his playmaking trio of receivers in Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis and Early Doucet. Notre Dame's secondary has struggled most vs. bigger and deeper wide receiver corps, as witnessed in losses to Michigan and USC. That's not good news vs. the trio of Bowe, Davis and Doucet, which has combined for 2,355 yards and 23 touchdowns on 163 receptions. Bowe has emerged as the most consistent of the three, but Davis will made some big plays thanks to his good size and reliable hands, and Doucet has a knack for coming up with clutch receptions on third downs and inside the red-zone. Irish CBs Mike Richardson and Terrail Lambert lack the speed to be left alone in man coverage with any type of frequency. As a result, defensive coordinator Rick Minter is forced to play a lot of conservative zone coverage. The only problem, however, is that DSs Tom Zbikowski and Chinedum Ndukwe lack ideal range in deep-half coverage, so there tends to be gaping holes in the cover-2 and cover-2 zones for an opposing quarterback to exploit. With that in mind, Notre Dame's only chance of keeping the LSU passing attack in check is to get consistent front four pressure on Russell. That means there will be a heavy onus on LDE Victor Abiamiri, who has notched 21 career sacks, and DT Landri, who is second on the team with seven sacks this season, to come up big as pass rushers in this game. If Minter is forced to get his linebackers and safeties overly involved in the blitz package, it will be a long night for the Irish faithful.
Special Teams
Notre Dame's special teams units have been inconsistent throughout the 2006 season, but it still owns a slight edge over LSU in this facet of the game. The highlight of the group is PT Geoff Price, who ranks sixth nationally with an average of 45.2 yards per attempt. Placekicking has been far more adventurous, though. PK Carl Gioia has missed four of his 12 field goal attempts and five extra points on the season. His long of the season is 40 yards and he has missed all three attempts from beyond that distance.
The Irish are more effective returning kickoffs than they are returning punts. Zbikowski averages nine yards per punt return, which was boosted by one 52-yard return for a score. On the season, Zbikowski has been far less explosive and not as sure-handed as in the past. The majority of the kickoffs have been handled by David Grimes, who is averaging 25.5 yards per return on the season. George West has also chipped in on kickoff returns and is averaging 20.3 yards on 10 attempts.
LSU PK Colt David has had a rollercoaster season. He has connected on six of 10 field goal attempts with a long of 45 yards. However, he has missed four of his seven attempts beyond 40 yards and he also had an extra point blocked in a close game vs. Ole Miss. Versatile Chris Jackson, who can also attempt field goals, handles the kickoff and punting duties. Though he generally gets good distance on his kicks, he has had some trouble with his directional skills in that department, which is something to keep an eye on when kicking to Grimes. Jackson has been solid as the team's punter, averaging 41.8 yards per attempt. However, he has had one punt blocked on the season. KORs Early Doucet and Trindon Holliday possess excellent speed and each can go the distance when he gets a seam. However, the kickoff return unit has struggled to consistently open creases this year, which explains why LSU ranks 46th nationally in this department. PR Craig Davis is explosive and he returned a punt 77 yards for a touchdown against Fresno State earlier this year.
Matchups
? Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn vs. LSU DS LaRon Landry
? LSU WR Dwayne Bowe vs. Notre Dame CB Mike Richardson
? LSU ROT Peter Dyakowski vs. Notre Dame LDE Victor Abiamiri
Scouts' Edge
LSU matches up brilliantly with Notre Dame on paper. For starters, Russell and his stable of thoroughbred receivers should have their way with a smaller, slower Irish secondary. Secondly, the Tiger defense has the speed to blanket Walker and the run game, while keeping consistent front four pressure on Quinn when he looks to throw. And finally, don't forget this is a virtual home game for LSU, which must travel less than 80 miles I-10 East to set up shop in the Superdome.
The sum of all those parts should equal a Tigers' blowout, right? Well, we're not so sure. After all, LSU is far from perfect. Its offense lacks consistent balance from the ground game and its special teams units have been pedestrian, at best, this season. The Irish, on the other hand, bring with them 18 senior starters that are sick and tired of hearing, "They can't win the big game." Quinn, Samardzija and McKnight are three of those seniors, and they should make enough big plays on offense to keep this contest closer than expected late into the fourth quarter. However, Notre Dame's defensive deficiencies will once again prove to be fatal, allowing LSU to come out on top of this high-scoring seesaw-like battle.
Prediction: Tigers 31, Fighting Irish 28
