SUICIDE PICK....need some help!

[Gmarco]

We have a suicide pool here at work and we are down to 12 people. The pot is around $3,000. I have used MIAMI, SD, INDY & PHILLY. Its a pool where you can only use a team once. No point spread, just the winner.

I was leaning towards SF against Rams, but can the Rams go 0-5.
Second choice was Cleveland and
third choice Carolina.

What would some of you pick?

Gmarco

 

[SmashMouth]

I would not use san sfran. why not save them for later?
Love Cleveland

 

[vanbasten]

gmarco,

with 12 people left, this thing probably won't go but 3-4 weeks, so looking ahead, here is how i see it.

first, i know you may or not know what other teams people have used, but regardless, i imagine some/most of the people that are still alive have used alot of the same teams so far.

i agree with smash that cleveland looks good this week, but you will probably find others using cleveland or san fran, as people look to use bigger fav's.

if it was me, i would look ahead to weeks 6, 7 and 8 and see who i could use in those weeks. again, figuring this thing might only go 3-4 more weeks.

week 6 - you haven't used buffalo and they are playing the texans - should win for you. pittsburgh is in cinncy, should be a winner as well, but a divisional game, on the road and some wierd history there, would stay away and hope others take pitt and they get upset.

week 7 - here's where you use cleveland. they are playing houston in cleveland. hopefully other left will have already used cleveland in week 5, and you have another easy winner.

ok, so we go to week 8 - jacksonville is hosting houston, tennessee is in cinncy, and arizona is in san fran. here's a great opportunity to use san fran, again figuring others may have already used them in week 5.

so....who would i use in week 5?? new orleans or kansas city, but would probably lean towards the home team and go with the saints.

just my opinion. good luck and let us know what you do.

 

[Frank Brabec]

I don't like the SF pick a lot, I believe there are safer picks, unless you think you'll absolutely need to use SF before the end of the season (only a couple of their games look good to me, and they come late in the season).
I'd save Cleveland for later in the year...Houston week 7, Jets week 8, and Cincy week 11 look like great spots for them.
Carolina hasn't beat anybody (I mean that in the haven't beaten anybody that's any good way), and if they turn out to be world-beaters, well, you'll still have them too. Arizona has been close in their games, but their running backs are hurting right now...that's a tough game sraight-up.
But, as to what I like ...
I like Tampa Bay a lot, and I'm not sure you can use them the following two weeks for sure, with Cleveland and Philly coming up weeks six and seven.
However, I think I like the KC Chiefs the best this week, as Pennington is probably not the answer for the Jets woes...they need a healthy Martin too, and even that might not be enough.
Plus, the Chierfs are scoring well right now, and you can't use them weeks 6,7, and 8 (opponents SD, Denver, and Oakland).
One important consideration is what bullets your opponents have left. One strategy to use is to pick away from what they will be taking. You can sometimes infer their picks by the teams that they have left.
I have won 2 of these-type pools in the past 10 years and got heads-up late in the season in another, but this year, I busted out in week 2, so your milage may vary
Good Luck,
Frank

 

[Z-MAN]

YOU CAN'T LOOK AHEAD IN THESE THINGS

Why? Injuries.

Take Cleveland and run. I think New Orleans is a bad call. Take the team every week that you haven't used that has the best matchup - period.

I am in a league where there are 16 people left. I am picking Indy this week.......

Just my opinion - good luck whatever you do.......

 

[nakor]

My pool still has 52 left (you can rebuy once in the first 3 weeks - about 80% of those left rebought). I debated for a long time about Indy vs Cleveland vs SF, and even considered Tennessee briefly. In the end I went with Cleveland. Indy plays Baltimore at home next week, I'll probably use them then. Also I have a hunch that Indy may lose outright this week. I also think SF has been too inconsistent (although I did bet them - figure they either win by a bunch or lose outright).

Good luck.

 

[nakor]

I should also point out that my cardinal rule in these pools is

NEVER TAKE A ROAD TEAM (unless absolutely necessary)

It's almost never that a road team will be the best bet.

 

[vanbasten]

zman and nakor,

good luck to both of you. zman, i like the saints to cover the small number as well, just waiting for a better line. wish we all had a crystal ball, huh?

 

[Diglerusa]

You might not want to hear it, but take the BILLS

Don't think the Raiders will go 4-0, and Buff plays well @ home and on turf....

Bills to cover

 

[Gmarco]

I haven't made up my mind yet, but I think a few people are going with Cleveland. I also was considering Denver (coming off loss monday night and going back home in a division game. SD is coming off a huge win at home and now has to travel to Mile High) I 'll keep you posted.

 

[pghpounder]

If I were you I would lay off of the 49ers because they have yet to impress anyone. I would go with either carolina or the broncos because after an embarrasing loss on monday night i think that denver will be ready to go especially against a san diego team that is undefeated. This could heal some of their wounds if they defeat them and they are at home which is a very tough place for any team to go in and win.

Take Denver!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[PaTsJaMM]

Go against New England at your peril

 

[GM]

KC's a big risk. I agree with what was said above....never take a road team. Esp. only a 3-point favorite. Two strong systems plays point at NYJ this week (as ugly as they have looked). #1 Go Against any team that has scored 90 pts in the past 3 weeks (KC has scored 102!). And #2, Go With a team that has scored fewer than 30 pts in the past 3 weeks (Jets = 13). When they play each other the numbers are unbelieveable (kinda wish we were getting more than +3 on the Jets!). Anyways, KC could lose here.

Cleveland and Carolina both look good I think. Carolina's defence has been excellent this year. Yes, they haven't played a lot of top-notch teams, but still the highest # of points they have given up this year is just 17, last week @ GB. And with Ariz travelling I kind of like the Panthers if you want to play it a bit risky. I don't see Ariz scoring much in this game. Balt ~should~ let down this week, Clev should bounce back. But maybe Clev is needed in the coming weeks as also mentioned above.

I don't know what to think of SF/StL yet. But ya, StL could lose 5 in a row. A lot of people didn't think they could lose 3 in a row, or 4....

 

[Roger]

take the 49ers!

 

[Gmarco]

Took Denver. Hope I make it.

 

[PUHD]

I myself took Cleveland for mine. Was between Denver and Cleveland, and with only myself and 1 other guy left, I had to go cleveland just out of hope. The other guy had Indy today, so we'll see.

 

[Gmarco]

Well we lost 4 guys...down to 8. (cleveland 3, Tenn 1) we also had 4 KC. I was hoping for Jets upset.)

Next week I am looking at Pitt vs Cin ( but Pitt is scary this yr)
also might go with Tampa against Cleve