STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
***** Sunday, 6/8/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #10
?Rockies Mystified By Kershaw And The Dodgers: The Colorado Rockies may have the top offense in Major League Baseball, but they have not been able to solve Clayton Kershaw. In Kershaw's last six starts against Colorado, the Rockies have come away with one win. The Left-hander has held the Rockies scoreless in three of those games and has strukout at least eight batters four times. Those six starts have seen the Rockies average a terrible 1.8 runs per game.
?Harang Paying Out For Totals Bettors: Not too many people expected the resurgence we've seen from Aaron Harang this season and though the hype has died down, he is still a solid play for bettors. Harang has 13 starts so far this season for the Atlanta Braves. In those 13 starts, Harang has a 4-8-1 over/under record. Only twice all season long has the left-hander had more than two runs notched against him and has only allowed 26 runs in his 13 starts. The Braves will finish their weekend series against the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday.
?Wheeler Underwealming For Mets As Underdogs: The New York Mets have not had a lot to be excited about this season and that's not likely to change with Zach Wheeler on the mound. The Mets are a lowly 2-8 in Wheeler's last 10 starts as the underdog. The right-hander has a 2-5 record with a 3.89 ERA this season. New York will wrap up a three-game weekend series in San Francisco (4:05 PM EST) Sunday against Tim Lincecum and the Giants.
?Miller, Cardinals Ground Blue Jays: There's no way Shelby Miller could have predicted how his day was going to unfold after the way it started. The St. Louis Cardinals right-hander said he didn't feel good warming up, but ended up disposing of the Toronto Blue Jays in dominating fashion, using 105 pitches to record 27 outs and blank the hottest team in baseball. Miller threw the second complete game of his career and Randal Grichuk hit his first career home run to power the Cardinals to a 5-0 victory over the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Miller (7-5) flirted with perfection and lost his no-hit bid in the sixth but settled for a three-hit shutout to snap Toronto's six-game winning streak.
The 23-year-old bounced back from three rough outings in which he allowed 15 runs over three losses to record his first shutout since one-hitting the Colorado Rockies last May. Miller, who logged his fifth quality start of the season, walked one and struck out six to send the Cardinals to their third victory in their last 11 games. Blue Jays manager John Gibbons singled out Miller's fastball as the difference, a pitch that was routinely hitting 95-plus mph and generating swings and misses. Grichuk's solo blast to dead-center field off Mark Buehrle in the fifth inning broke open a scoreless game and put the Cardinals (32-31) ahead, 1-0, giving Miller all the run support he needed on the sunny afternoon.
?Votto To Start Rehab Assignment Sunday: Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto is scheduled to start a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, according to Cincinnati TV station Fox 19. Votto was scheduled to travel to Pawtucket, where Louisville is playing. Votto has been out since May 16 with a strained left quadriceps. He is expected to rejoin the Reds next week after a short rehab stint. Votto has a batting line of .257/.410/.449 with six home runs and 12 RBIs in 173 plate appearances this season.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
?SAN FRANCISCO is 25-8 (+18.9 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.6, OPPONENT 2.8.
?CHI WHITE SOX are 9-0 OVER (+9.1 Units) in road games versus an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better this season.
The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 6.1, OPPONENT 6.2.
?HOUSTON is 41-17 (+24.9 Units) against the run line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 4.1.
?ANIBAL SANCHEZ is 9-20 (-19.6 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SANCHEZ 3.1, OPPONENT 3.9.
?SAM DEDUNO is 14-2 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DEDUNO 3.0, OPPONENT 3.2.
?HENDERSON ALVAREZ is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the run line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ALVAREZ 3.7, OPPONENT 3.4.
Situation Analysis of The Day
?Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(58-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.6%, +41.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -187.8
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +2.7)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, -0.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-6, +15.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (125-50, +32.9 units)
?Play On - All favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (WASHINGTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -National League, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(36-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.0%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (42-8 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.5, money line price: +121
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 2.6 (Average run differential = +2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 29 (58% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-4, -0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-11, +12.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (59-68, +3.2 units).
?Play Under - Road teams where the total is 10 or higher (CLEVELAND) - terrible fielding team - averaging 0.9+ errors/game against opponent terrible power team - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game on the season, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a winning team.
(73-28 since 1997.) (72.3%, +43.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 10.4, Money Line=-105.5
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 4.6 (Total runs scored = 9.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 63 (62.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1, -0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2, +0.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2, +0.7 units).
#951 PHILADELPHIA @ #952 CINCINNATI - 1:10 PM
?Phillies RH David Buchanan (1-2, 6.11 ERA, WHIP: 1.471) - After emerging victorious in his major-league debut, Buchanan has struggled in his next two outings. The 25-year-old permitted season highs in homers (two), runs (seven) and hits (10) in a 7-0 setback to Washington on Tuesday. Buchanan managed to strike out six to triple his output in his each of his prior two starts, and may see more time than expected as Cliff Lee remains less than optimistic as he nurses a strained elbow.
?Reds RH Homer Bailey (6-3, 4.99 ERA, WHIP: 1.465) - Bailey recorded his third straight victory and fifth in his last six decisions after allowing three runs and striking out seven in six innings against San Francisco on Tuesday. The lone setback in that stretch came against the Phillies, who battered the 28-year-old for six runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings on May 17. Bailey fell to 0-4 with a 4.41 ERA in his career versus Philadelphia.
--KEY STAT: BAILEY is 1-7 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in home games in June games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 4.1, OPPONENT 5.9.
--BAILEY is 8-0 OVER (+8.2 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 5.8, OPPONENT 5.4.
--BAILEY is 7-0 OVER (+7.2 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 5.4, OPPONENT 5.7.
--BAILEY is 7-0 OVER (+7.2 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BAILEY 5.9, OPPONENT 5.7.
#953 MILWAUKEE @ #954 PITTSBURGH - 1:35 PM
?Brewers RH Yovani Gallardo (3-4, 4.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.302) - Gallardo has steadily regressed following a promising first month of the season, capped by a dismal performance last time out when he was tagged for a season-worst six runs on eight hits in a home loss to Minnesota. Gallardo beat Baltimore in his previous start, giving up three runs in 6 2/3 innings. An inability to keep the ball in the park has contributed to his downfall - Gallardo has coughed up eight homers in his last five starts.
--KEY STAT: GALLARDO is 77-34 (+36.4 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was GALLARDO 5.1, OPPONENT 3.4.
?Pirates RH Charlie Morton (2-7, 3.31 ERA, WHIP: 1.282) - The Pirates have scratched left-hander Jeff Locke from Sunday's scheduled assignment against the Brewers. Locke was slated to start but could pitch Monday if manager Clint Hurdle decides to go with Morton. Morton is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee this year and 2-6 with a 4.63 ERA in 11 overall.
--KEY STAT: MORTON is 26-11 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was MORTON 2.6, OPPONENT 3.9.
#955 MIAMI @ #956 CHICAGO CUBS - 2:20 PM
?Marlins RH Henderson Alvarez (3-3, 2.62 ERA, WHIP: 1.282) - Alvarez is five days removed from becoming the first pitcher in the majors with three shutouts this season and has not allowed a home run in 30 consecutive frames. The 24-year-old has achieved most of his success at home while going 0-2 with a 4.13 ERA on the road. Alvarez won his only prior start versus the Cubs, allowing three runs in six innings at Wrigley Field last season.
--KEY STAT: ALVAREZ is 11-0 against the run line (+11.0 Units) in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 3.7, OPPONENT 3.4.
--ALVAREZ is 10-0 against the run line (+10.0 Units) in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 3.7, OPPONENT 3.4.
--ALVAREZ is 10-1 against the run line (+10.2 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 4.1, OPPONENT 3.2.
?Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (1-1, 3.00 ERA, WHIP: 1.600) - Arrieta allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings against the New York Mets on Tuesday but needed a season-high 105 pitches to get that far, continuously working out of trouble. He has yielded one run or fewer in four of his six starts while lasting six frames just twice as opponents have accumulated 35 hits and 13 walks in 30 innings. Arrieta, who has allowed one run in 10 innings at home this year, has never faced the Marlins.
#957 NY METS @ #958 SAN FRANCISCO - 4:05 PM
?Mets RH Zack Wheeler (2-5, 3.89 ERA, WHIP: 1.356) - Wheeler, like many New York starters, is having trouble getting run support and failed to secure a win at Chicago on Tuesday despite surrendering two hits in 6 2/3 scoreless innings. That marked the third straight quality start for the 24-year-old, who struck out 23 in 19 2/3 innings over that span. Wheeler was drafted and developed by San Francisco before joining the Mets in a deadline deal for Carlos Beltran in 2011 and is 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts against his former franchise.
--KEY STAT: WHEELER is 9-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WHEELER 5.5, OPPONENT 2.6.
--WHEELER is 11-1 against the run line (+10.0 Units) in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WHEELER 5.5, OPPONENT 2.6.
--WHEELER is 11-1 against the run line (+10.0 Units) on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WHEELER 4.8, OPPONENT 3.1.
?Giants RH Tim Lincecum (4-4, 5.01 ERA, WHIP: 1.562) - Lincecum is struggling to find consistency in 2014 and is trying to bounce back from his worst effort after allowing eight runs in 4 1/3 innings at Cincinnati on Tuesday. The Washington native, who turns 30 next Sunday, held the Chicago Cubs hitless over five innings in his previous outing but issued four walks in that turn. Lincecum enjoys plenty of success against New York and is 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 10 career starts against the Mets.
--KEY STAT: LINCECUM is 22-11 OVER (+11.4 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LINCECUM 4.5, OPPONENT 4.6.
#959 ATLANTA @ #960 ARIZONA - 4:10 PM
?Braves RH Aaron Harang (4-4, 3.24 ERA, WHIP: 1.244) - Harang is winless in his past four starts despite allowing two earned runs in three of those outings. He got a no-decision June 1 at Miami, giving up two runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings, his second consecutive start of six innings or more with two earned runs allowed. Harang, who has 10 quality starts in his 12 outings this season, is 3-8 lifetime with a 3.20 ERA in 17 career games against the Diamondbacks.
--KEY STAT: HARANG is 2-10 against the run line (-11.2 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HARANG 3.1, OPPONENT 5.5.
?Diamondbacks RH Chase Anderson (4-0, 3.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.247) - Anderson has brought out the best in Arizona?s offense ? the Diamondbacks are averaging 10.3 runs in his four starts ? but the 26-year-old has pitched well for a rotation that has struggled. He allowed one run on four hits in six innings Tuesday to lift Arizona to a 4-2 victory at Colorado. Anderson has held left-handed hitters to a .135 batting average; right-handers are batting .340 with nine extra-base hits in 47 at-bats.
#961 WASHINGTON @ #962 SAN DIEGO - 4:10 PM
?Nationals RH Jordan Zimmermann (4-2, 3.59 ERA, WHIP: 1.374) - Zimmerman comes in off eight scoreless innings during a 7-0 victory over Philadelphia when he allowed only five hits. The 28-year-old has yielded three or fewer earned runs in nine of 12 starts and boasts 54 strikeouts and only 14 walks in 67 2/3 innings. Alonso is 3-for-7 with a homer against Zimmerman, who is 1-2 with a 2.35 ERA in six career outings versus San Diego.
--KEY STAT: ZIMMERMANN is 20-4 (+14.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 6.0, OPPONENT 2.5.
--ZIMMERMANN is 41-17 (+18.2 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 4.9, OPPONENT 3.4.
--ZIMMERMANN is 24-11 OVER (+12.1 Units) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3.
?Padres LH Eric Stults (2-6, 5.03 ERA, WHIP: 1.484) - Stults returns from the bereavement to take on Washington for the second time this season after yielding two runs in 5 1/3 innings on April 24 without getting a decision. The Indiana native has gone four games without a victory and completed more than six innings only once in 12 starts. Danny Espinosa is 2-for-6 with a homer against Stults, who is 1-0 in two outings versus Washington.
--KEY STAT: STULTS is 15-3 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games in the first half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was STULTS 4.5, OPPONENT 2.7.
--STULTS is 18-7 UNDER (+10.0 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STULTS 3.0, OPPONENT 3.5.
#963 LA DODGERS @ #964 COLORADO - 4:10 PM
?Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (4-2, 3.32 ERA, WHIP: 1.084) - Kershaw allowed a two-run homer to rookie phenom Jose Abreu among four hits while striking out nine in eight innings of a 5-2 victory over the Chicago White Sox on Monday. The 26-year-old Texan, who won the Cy Young Award in 2011 and 2013, is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts as he rounds into form after missing 1 1/2 months because of a shoulder injury. Kershaw is 10-5 with a 3.60 ERA in 23 starts against Colorado, including 5-3, 5.24 in 13 turns at Coors Field.
--KEY STAT: KERSHAW is 40-16 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 4.4, OPPONENT 3.2.
--KERSHAW is 13-4 against the run line (+9.6 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KERSHAW 5.4, OPPONENT 3.2.
?Rockies LH Jorge De La Rosa (6-4, 3.68 ERA, WHIP: 1.197) - De La Rosa, who has allowed three or fewer runs in his last nine starts, yielded three runs and seven hits in seven innings of a 4-2 loss to Arizona on Tuesday. The 33-year-old Mexican is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three outings against Los Angeles after going 0-8 with a 6.75 ERA in 14 previous games (10 starts). De La Rosa, who is 38-13 with a 4.06 ERA at Coors Field, won at Dodger Stadium 6-1 on April 27 when he permitted one run and four hits in seven innings.
--KEY STAT: DE LA ROSA is 35-11 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 7.7, OPPONENT 5.2.
--DE LA ROSA is 14-1 (+13.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.6, OPPONENT 2.8.
--DE LA ROSA is 10-0 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 4.6, OPPONENT 2.0.
--DE LA ROSA is 31-14 OVER (+16.3 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was DE LA ROSA 7.7, OPPONENT 5.2.
#965 BOSTON @ #966 DETROIT - 8:05 PM
?Red Sox RH John Lackey (6-4, 3.28 ERA, WHIP: 1.243) - Lackey suffered a complete-game loss at Cleveland on Monday, surrendering three runs on eight hits and coming out on the wrong end of a 3-0 final. The veteran had combined for 13 1/3 scoreless innings over his previous two starts and has issued a total of three walks in his last three turns. Lackey had a string of four straight quality starts come to an end against Detroit on May 17, when he was reached for six runs ? five earned ? and nine hits in 5 1/3 frames.
--KEY STAT: LACKEY is 3-11 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 2.5, OPPONENT 3.9.
--LACKEY is 20-5 UNDER (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 4.0, OPPONENT 3.4.
--LACKEY is 12-2 UNDER (+9.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.7, OPPONENT 2.9.
--LACKEY is 19-6 UNDER (+12.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LACKEY 3.9, OPPONENT 3.7.
?Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (2-2, 2.15 ERA, WHIP: 0.894) - Sanchez has yet to allow more than three earned runs in an outing and went seven scoreless frames while yielding two hits and striking out five against Toronto on Tuesday. The 30-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his last four starts, a run that began with a solid turn at Boston. Sanchez earned a win on May 18 while holding the Red Sox to two runs ? one earned ? and five hits in five innings.
--KEY STAT: SANCHEZ is 9-20 (-19.6 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 3.1, OPPONENT 3.9.
--SANCHEZ is 20-6 UNDER (+13.8 Units) after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANCHEZ 3.4, OPPONENT 3.1.
#967 OAKLAND @ #968 BALTIMORE - 1:35 PM
?Athletics LH Scott Kazmir (6-2, 2.40 ERA, WHIP: 0.987) - Kazmir did not factor into the decision during Tuesday?s 5-2, 10-inning victory over the New York Yankees despite striking out a season-high 10 batters. The two-time All-Star, who is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 18 strikeouts against two walks over his last two turns, allowed two runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings and has permitted three runs or fewer in all but one of his 12 starts. Kazmir last faced the Orioles on June 26, yielding an unearned run on one hit over seven frames in a no-decision.
--KEY STAT: KAZMIR is 43-27 (+20.2 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 4.8, OPPONENT 4.1.
--KAZMIR is 20-8 against the run line (+14.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 5.8, OPPONENT 3.1.
--KAZMIR is 41-19 UNDER (+19.8 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was KAZMIR 3.9, OPPONENT 4.1.
?Orioles RH Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 4.39 ERA, WHIP: 1.478) - After going 2-6 with a 4.98 ERA over his first 10 turns, Jimenez gave up only one run for the second straight time in Tuesday?s 8-3 triumph over the Texas Rangers. The 30-year-old Dominican scattered four hits over 5 2/3 innings, but hasn?t made it past the sixth inning in either start and is 0-4 with a 5.72 ERA in five home turns. Jimenez hasn't won since May 8, although he enters Sunday with a 3-0 record and 3.09 ERA in four career outings versus Oakland.
--KEY STAT: JIMENEZ is 2-11 against the run line (-14.8 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 3.1, OPPONENT 5.5.
--JIMENEZ is 14-23 against the run line (-17.1 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 3.8, OPPONENT 4.5.
--JIMENEZ is 24-10 UNDER (+13.0 Units) in June games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JIMENEZ 4.2, OPPONENT 3.4.
#969 SEATTLE @ #970 TAMPA BAY - 1:40 PM
?Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (8-1, 2.57 ERA, WHIP: 1.033) - Hernandez defeated the New York Yankees in his last turn when he gave up two runs and eight hits in seven innings. One of the victories during the streak came against Tampa Bay on May 12 when Hernandez took a shutout into the seventh but ended up allowing four runs and eight hits in 6 2/3 innings. Hernandez is 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA in 12 career starts against Tampa Bay.
--KEY STAT: HERNANDEZ is 9-2 against the run line (+8.5 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 5.5, OPPONENT 3.2.
--HERNANDEZ is 36-80 against the run line (-35.4 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is +115 to +160 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
--HERNANDEZ is 20-7 UNDER (+11.8 Units) in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HERNANDEZ 3.5, OPPONENT 3.3.
?Rays RH Chris Archer (3-3, 3.73 ERA, WHIP: 1.386) - Archer has given up just three runs in 24 2/3 innings over his last four starts but is just 1-1 during the stretch. He suffered a 1-0 loss to the Miami Marlins on Tuesday when he gave up one run and five hits in seven innings. Archer is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against Seattle while being touched up for four homers in nine innings.
#971 HOUSTON @ #972 MINNESOTA - 2:10 PM
?Astros RH Collin McHugh (4-3, 2.52 ERA, WHIP: 0.960) - McHugh has won back-to-back starts, allowing seven hits over 12 shutout innings against the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels. He has been surprisingly good since being recalled and has given up just 34 hits in 50 innings while striking out 54. McHugh is 2-1 with a 1.33 ERA in four road starts.
?Twins RH Samuel Deduno (2-3, 3.83 ERA, WHIP: 1.394) - Deduno defeated the Milwaukee Brewers in his last turn when he gave up two runs and six hits in five innings. He has given up two runs in three of his last four starts and has allowed just two homers in 51 2/3 innings this season. Deduno took a no-decision against the Astros last August when he gave up two runs and four hits in six innings.
--KEY STAT: DEDUNO is 14-2 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DEDUNO 3.0, OPPONENT 3.2.
--DEDUNO is 13-1 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DEDUNO 2.9, OPPONENT 3.1.
--DEDUNO is 14-3 UNDER (+10.8 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was DEDUNO 3.1, OPPONENT 3.4.
#973 NY YANKEES @ #974 KANSAS CITY - 2:10 PM
?Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (4-3, 4.27 ERA, WHIP: 1.242) - Kuroda is coming off his finest effort of the season, limiting Oakland to one run on two hits over 6 2/3 innings before the bullpen blew the save and cost him a victory. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts and has not lost since May 1. Kuroda has been victimized by the long ball, surrendering six homers in his last five starts, and is 1-2 with a 3.34 ERA lifetime versus the Royals.
--KEY STAT: KURODA is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.6, OPPONENT 2.6.
--KURODA is 30-13 UNDER (+15.2 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.9, OPPONENT 3.2.
--KURODA is 35-17 UNDER (+15.4 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.9, OPPONENT 3.6.
--KURODA is 17-3 UNDER (+13.8 Units) after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KURODA 3.4, OPPONENT 3.3.
?Royals RH James Shields (6-3, 3.68 ERA, WHIP: 1.249) - Shields has been knocked around in three straight starts, but he has not factored in the decision and Kansas City has won all three thanks to an offense that produced 23 runs in that span. All three outings have come away from home for Shields, who has surrendered seven homers during the rough patch after giving up five in his first 10 starts. Kansas City has scored fewer than five runs only once in Shields' last 10 turns.
--KEY STAT: SHIELDS is 12-3 (+9.2 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 6.0, OPPONENT 3.3.
--SHIELDS is 8-27 against the run line (-18.1 Units) in home games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.1, OPPONENT 3.9.
--SHIELDS is 17-6 against the run line (+12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.1.
--SHIELDS is 7-0 OVER (+7.3 Units) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 6.3, OPPONENT 4.7.
#975 CLEVELAND @ #976 TEXAS - 3:05 PM
?Indians RH Justin Masterson (3-4, 4.72 ERA, WHIP: 1.494) - Masterson busted out of a slump with a strong effort against Boston on Monday, striking out 10 while scattering three hits in seven scoreless frames. The 10 strikeouts matched his total from the previous four starts, none of which made it through six frames. Masterson has not had much success against Texas in his career, going 1-4 with a 5.03 ERA in nine games ? five starts.
--KEY STAT: MASTERSON is 21-9 (+14.6 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MASTERSON 3.9, OPPONENT 3.3.
?Rangers LH Joe Saunders (0-1, 3.68 ERA, WHIP: 1.840) - Saunders is making his third start since a lengthy stint on the disabled list and allowed a total of two runs in 11 innings over the previous two. The Virginia native surrendered 10 hits to the Baltimore Orioles on Monday but limited the damage to two runs without factoring in the decision. Saunders made two starts against Cleveland as a member of the Seattle Mariners last season and was knocked around in both, yielding a total of 10 runs ? nine earned ? and 20 hits in 10 innings.
--KEY STAT: SAUNDERS is 54-27 against the run line (+31.9 Units) versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SAUNDERS 4.7, OPPONENT 3.9.
#977 CHI WHITE SOX @ #978 LA ANGELS - 3:35 PM
?White Sox LH Jose Quintana (3-5, 3.31 ERA, WHIP: 1.268) - Quintana did not give up an earned run over six frames in Monday?s 5-2 defeat against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but took the loss anyway when two sixth-inning errors led to five unearned runs. The third-year veteran, who has alternated wins and losses over his last five turns, yielded six hits and fanned five while extending his streak of not allowing a homer to seven games. The 25-year-old Quintana is 0-2 despite a 3.57 ERA in three career starts against the Angels.
--KEY STAT: QUINTANA is 21-8 UNDER (+12.0 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.7, OPPONENT 3.6.
--QUINTANA is 20-7 UNDER (+12.2 Units) when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was QUINTANA 3.1, OPPONENT 3.5.
?Angels LH C.J. Wilson (6-5, 3.52 ERA, WHIP: 1.210) - Battling flu-like symptoms early last week, Wilson failed to make it into the seventh inning for the first time in seven tries and suffered his second straight loss in Wednesday?s 7-2 setback against the Houston Astros. The former fifth-round pick of the Texas Rangers was tagged for five runs on six hits and a season-high five walks over a season-low 2 2/3 innings ? his shortest outing since Sept. 19, 2012. Wilson is 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 all-time appearances (five starts) against the White Sox.
--KEY STAT: WILSON is 16-5 against the run line (+11.7 Units) in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 5.6, OPPONENT 2.9.
--WILSON is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in home games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 3.9, OPPONENT 2.4.
--WILSON is 13-3 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 4.2, OPPONENT 2.6.
Interleague
#979 ST LOUIS @ #980 TORONTO - 1:05 PM ET
?Cardinals LH Jaime Garcia (1-0, 5.47 ERA, WHIP: 0.973) - Garcia allowed three hits in four scoreless frames before yielding six runs and five hits in the fifth inning of St. Louis' 8-7 loss to Kansas City on Tuesday in his worst performance of the season. ?I just wasn?t able to execute,? the 27-year-old Mexican told reporters. ?I?ve got to go out and do a better job than that.... I?m on the mound (and) I?m trying to execute pitches until the manager comes to take the ball out of my hand.? Garcia, who has struck out 22 with zero walks in 24 2/3 innings this season while sporting an impressive 0.97 WHIP, is 2-3 with a 5.70 ERA in eight interleague starts - 1-1, 2.77 in two starts against Toronto.
?Blue Jays RH Drew Hutchison (4-3, 3.50 ERA, WHIP: 1.181) - Hutchison, who hasn't lost in four starts (3-0), struck out seven and yielded three hits in seven shutout innings while receiving a no-decision in the Blue Jays' 5-3 victory at Detroit on Tuesday. ?Once I found my rhythm, I was really able to lock in," the 23-year-old Florida native, who missed 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, told reporters. "I believe I?m a good pitcher and I?m capable of doing that every night. That?s what I expect out of myself.? Hutchison has never faced the Cardinals.
