Sun NRL pick/Sat wrap

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Went 2-2 in a disappointing day y'day.

NRL:
Cowboys 14 Eels 14

Super 12:
Blues 27 Sharks 41
Highlanders 39 Waratahs 20
Stormers 29 Reds 27

The Eels led 12-4 at the break and a couple of minutes into the second half bombed a six-pointer when PJ Marsh passed to a Cowboy with three unmarked Eels outside him and the tryline beckoning
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So what would have been an 18-4 lead never materialised and the Cowboys grew heart to come back.
The Blues were so awful it wasn't funny, although we got some awful calls from ref Wayne Erickson at crucial times that threatened the longevity of my TV.
The Highlanders had a huge second half to cover easily - they are a completely different team at home at Carisbrook; No8 Sami Vaihofalau was unstoppable and great to see him blaze past that fat Teletubby Waratahs prop Matt Dowling that the Aussie commentators all love!
Another nice result with the Reds, who lost SU with a last-minute try but continued their trend of hanging close. Have lost 5 games by no more than 8pts and so +9.5 was a good number for us to take.

Just one play for today at this stage. I'm still pondering playing the Crusaders at -3.5 away to the Bulls but may not pull the trigger - if I do at all - until approx 9.30pm tonight, which may be totally out of time for those in other parts of the world. Apologies if that's the case; just need more time to ponder this one. There is a vast gulf in class between these two teams and the Crusaders will be smarting from their home loss to the 'Canes; they desperately need points to keep in touch for the semis. Andrew Mehrtens loves playing at altitude with his booming kicks and the Crusaders have done well in SA in the past. However, I was waiting to play the Bulls once they finally got home at altitude, but was hoping for a bigger number than this. Hmmm...

Anyway, today's definite play is:

NRL:
Game 7) Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons, 13.35 CST
Panthers pick 'em

Believe this line is an over-reaction to the Panthers win over the Roosters on Monday night. That was one out of the box for the Panthers and while impressive, the Roosters were poor - they have a tendency to run very hot and cold. If the line for this match had been made before that match, the Panthers would have been approx +8.5. The Dragons are 3-4 ATS but very hot; having thumped the Cowboys 48-12 last weekend after previously running up nearly 50 in whacking the Eagles. With Trent Barrett fit again to pull the strings, the Dragons possess too many weapons for the 2-5 ATS Panthers and represent good value here.
PLAY DRAGONS PICK 'EM

GLTA

Be back tonight (NZ time) with a decision on the Bulls v Crusaders.
 

gloveski

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Mar 29, 2001
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I agree i think St.George will beat the panthers been waiting to play this one as the panthers cost me dearly last weekend.
Mind you i know as much about rugby as Azrusty knows about Aussie Rules but I am learning fast.(The hardway)
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Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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Panthers 14 Dragons 42
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Ah, betcha that felt good gloveski! What were the books thinking on this one - had they only watched the Panthers once this season (last week)??

Which brings me too .... the final play of the weekend. Bear with me on this one and gimme some latitude.

Super 12:
Game 6) Bulls v Canterbury Crusaders, 22:35 CST
Bulls +3.5

Bulls are in a good spot, coming off the bye and in their first match at home at altitude this season after a real tough road trip - Sharks, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Waratahs, Brumbies. And getting +3.5 pts, I'd be tempted to play them in almost any situation. This one is a bit different though. They host the Crusaders - the 3x defending champs who are on the verge of going out of the playoff reckoning altogether with a loss here. Both teams are 2-3 ATS. The difference we have is class. While the Bulls have put up fine efforts in covering against the 'Canes and the Brumbies, they have never truly looked like winning a match. Home advantage at altitude is a big factor, but the Crusaders are the best-travelled NZ team. Over the past three seasons, they have played six matches in SA for a fine 4-2 record. In '99 they pipped the Bulls 30-28 in injury time and Andrew Mehrtens celebrated by doing what all NZ rugby players have wanted to do to SA crowds since the dawn of time - gave 'em the fingers
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The Bulls' fans will remember that, and the players should remember the 75-27
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hammering the Crusaders dished out last season to them at Jade Stadium. But pride, determination and will can only carry you so far, and the visitors should have equal amounts in a game absolutely crucial for them.
Ex-Springbok James Dalton comes back into the Bulls forward pack while there are 3 changes for the Crusaders - Ben Blair on the wing for Afato So'alo, Brad Thorn at No8 for Sam Broomhall, and Todd Blackadder goes back to lock the engine room with Norm Maxwell as Reuben Thorne comes back at No6. Don't think these Crusaders are done yet.
However - ya knew there would be a catch, right
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- this could go to the wire and I ain't that sold on -3.5. So I'm going to play the Crusaders at the -130 ML instead. Way I figure it, we've got a couple of +100/+105 ML winners this season that we've simply termed one-unit winners, so we're owed a little here.
And if anyone wants to argue, Redsfann's PC's been on the blink for a week; he's missed all the redneck chit on the China Crisis - boy, they were a dodgy 80s band
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- and he's real
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and spoiling for a fight
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PLAY CRUSADERS ML -130

GLTA, and again, apologies if some of you missed this post - you'll have to stay up all night from now on...


[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-08-2001).]
 

AzRusty

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Dec 16, 2000
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Yep. I missed these plays. Don't know how because I have been checking back here frequently.

I appreciate your posts. And you seem to know a lot more about this stuff than I do!
Which is pretty easy because I have NO idea what this stuff is about.

But I do like money..

Look forward to your next posts.

AzRusty
 

Anders

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Dec 17, 2000
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New Zealand
Bulls 29 Crusaders 42
biggrin.gif


Don't know what I was worried about
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although I wasn't thinking that when they were down 21-6
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Means we went 5-3 (62.50%) for the weekend (Fri-Sun); Super 12 4-1, NRL 1-2.

Back in a few hours with a wrap
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