Sunday 2 cents

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Least surprising confirmed hypothesis of the day: sportsline IS definately a source of nasty cookie pop-up advertigo.

Surviving lately, despite the Bosox pen. Cheap Angels helpsed.

adding more (f)or less confusion:
*less comfortable with #; lotsa X-factors
**middle; less unpredictable
***most comfortable with #
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Rockies(Chacon--)@Pirates(Suppan)
P.OPS: Rocks: 780, Pitt: 705
PITCH: Rocks: 79, Pitt: 75
--Rocks not as picky hitting right or left-handers lately (.280s on both, past 10); Chacon still having a solid year, but he's had trouble vs Pirates, though this is his first appearance vs this season; Suppan's 1st ever vs Rockies; slight edge to Pirates BP, edge to Rocks defense. Rocks just 13-27 on road but 3-2 on current road-trip. Rockies 57%**
Price: Rockies -120 (PV +2)
PASS

HP Brinkman is not a big factor for the total (8.5) which looks a bit low the way Pirates have hit Chacon in past. This is a different year for him, though, and most Rockies have never even seen Suppan (Helton, Walker & Wilson haven't), so the starters might keep it down for awhile. sub-par BP's don't help under; 8.5 about right, especially with teams scoring 8 then 9 in this series.

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D'Backs(Batista+)@Tigers(Cornejo)
P.OPS: D'Backs: 772, Tigers: 626
PITCH: D'Backs: 80, Tigers: 69
--What comes around goes around: I can still vividly remember my 2nd place club, all season, chasing a 35-5 Tigers (to start '84) club. Being a Jays fan I can feel no sympathy for this hopeless squad (old rivalry thing). Cornejo is one of their "top prospects", so you can understand that their shortcomings are not all surrounded upon their hopeless offense. D'Backs with several bats hurt, but youngsters are really starting to step up and may this team competitive. D'Backs 68%**
Price: D'Backs -180 (PV +3)
PASS

Adjusting my # down, for the runline, I got 54%. That's only even value on the -115 I can get. PASS
8.5 seems a bit low, but Batista may just stone this offense for 6 or 7 (BP solid despite missing closer Mantei), and just who is this HP ump Scott Nelson? 1st big-league game and I imagine his strike zone will NOT be non-existent.

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Reds(Haynes-)@Indians(Davis)
P.OPS: Reds: 756, Indians: 703
PITCH: Reds: 70, Indians: 70
--Personally, I'm still not sure about this Davis guy, and Haynes always surprises me whenever he tosses decent innings. Indians bats still trying to recover since loss of Burks; Indians BP better lately, about on-par w/Reds. Gotta give edge to Reds, 53%*
Price: Reds +100 (PV +3)
PASS

Consistently with a high strike %, BP O'Nora is 12-6 OVER this year after going 22-11 UNDER last year. His past 4 (has 5 total) Haynes starts have gone UNDER, including 2 last season. Did a Davis start April 15th this year, and 8-3 Indians win over Orioles (Daal).

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It's already written that today will be one to remember
(Blind Faith-Had To Cry Today)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Expos(Ohka)@Jays(Escobar-)
P.OPS: Expos: 718, Jays: 867
PITCH: Expos: 72, Jays: 75
--could do worse than Ohka, but I can't see him slowing down the Jays bats like Vargas did yesterday -- he was tossing pretty hot. Jays killer line-up now with more to work with, as Hinske and Stewart are back (make a TRADE, guys!!! -- how about some BP hElP?!?!?!). Loss of key offensive AND defensive sparkplug, Guerrero, in my opinion makes Expos more competitive with Tigers (well...say...) or Indians. Jays defense has been solid this month save for about 1 brain-cramp inning every 16.1. Escobar supposedly had some trouble last game due to a split fingernail, which I adjusted for a little (i.e. Jays down), but if it's (or HE'S) bad enough for him to split by the 4th then I'll wish I had the over. Jays 71%**
Price: Jays -175 (PV +7)
nothing I like (so far) to parlay it with, and too $$$ for me as is

Runline (+110) has PV +9 at my adjusting # of 57%.
PLAY:
Jays -1.5 +110
1/1.1

I don't like the total (10.5) w/Jays pitching so unpredictable. I think Jays will get theirs. HP Hunter.W. 10-7 unders this season.

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Braves(Ortiz+)@D'Rays(Sosa)
P.OPS: Braves: 819, D'Rays: 721
PITCH: Braves: 81, D'Rays: 69
--Ortiz, whose tossed an 8 inning beauty vs D'Rays last year (@Turner), has probably been their best all season. I see Sosa with a slim chance of surviving. Braves healthy and should rebound from the one-game slip-up here. Braves 66%***
Price: Braves -200 (PV -1)
PASS at 50 cents on the dollar

Runline is -130, too much for these numbers (need 57+)
Total of 9.5 is low if D'Rays can score 3-4, as Sosa has slim ...
HP Kellogg 9-8 under this year, but in career is more overage.
Mr. Total-Guts here is PASSing for now.

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Phillies(Millwood-)@Orioles(Helling--)
P.OPS: Phils: 759, O's: 759
PITCH: Phils: 80, O's: 66
--over-temptation on the 9.5, as Millwood has been bad in 2 GS vs O's, while Helling has been even worse in 3 G (2GS) vs Phillies; Phillies bats doing better than early season (including .292 vs R past 10); Millwood has been garbage lately; Phillies better BP and defense. Phillies 60% *(Millwood-factor)
Price: Phillies -156 (PV -1)
PASS

HP Montague 9-8 over this year; no way I can touch this total after having yesterday's under (Hentgen nothing-age and Philly BP-stinkage both surprised(me)). Millwood needs to prove he's not DL-bound.

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Hot time, summer in the city
Back of my neck gettin' dirty and gritty
(Lovin' Spoonful-Summer in the City)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Rangers(Ramos)@Astros(Villone)
P.OPS: Rangers: 730, Astros: 775
PITCH: Rangers: 67, Astros: 78
--Villone has looked good since return to bigs while Ramos has shown next to nothing in short outtings; Rangers #'s down when facing lefties while Astros prefer lefties (both are here). Astros edge on defense, BP, and, of course, at home. Loss of Kent not huge factor here. Astros 67%**
Price: Astros -160 (PV +5)
I woulda played this 2 or 3 weeks ago, but I'm looking for cheaper stuff lately. PASS

Will try the Astros runline, as +120 gives me PV +7 at my 53%.
1/1.2

HP Brian Knight an X-factor. May also favor the home side here. Total looks high when considering it's a match-up of 2 lefties or the Astros hot BP, but looks low when considering what the bats are capable of, where it's being played, and the quality of the starters.

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Cubs(Wood--)@Chisox(Loaiza+)
P.OPS: Cubs: 729, Chisox: 712
PITCH: Cubs: 87, Chisox: 88
--I got this as a coin-toss using the Force, 'capping, and it's what I get when I look at the oddsmakers. I'd take Wood here almost anyday, but he's sucked vs Chisox on several occasions while Loaiza has looked good vs Cubs. Cubs better BP not performing as well as early season, while Chisox pen nothing special EXCEPT (it seems) when mopping up for Loaiza. Very tough call here.

HP Marquez a bit of an underage the past year-and-a-half, but nothing to bet the mortgage on. 7 is brutally low, here. At 8 the temptation would probably overcome me, but Loaiza may implode with no notice (looking less and less likely very start) and Wood has looked bad vs, including 7.94 era in 11.1 pitched @Comiskey.

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it's ALMOST too hot for coffee
(Lucy Fur)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Marlins(Penny)@Bosox(Lowe+)
P.OPS: Marlins: 746, Bosox: 875
PITCH: Marlins: 75, Bosox: 78
--hard not to like the over after 1st 2, but Lowe has been much better than his early-season efforts, and Penny has had his strong outtings. Regardless off yesterday's final (did I save money playing the run-line?:shrug: ?0 and 2 Lowell blast w/2 outs killed both/all), I gotta call Bosox strong odds here, 68% (55 runline)**
Price: Bosox -189 (PV +3) (ROI 3% if I understand this chit)
PASS

Price Bosox -1.5 +100 (PV +5) (ROI 10% if same)
PLAY
1/1

The under is a perfect 2-0 when HP Gerry Davis calls and Marlins win a Penny start (over 2-0 when Davis calls and Marlins lose a Penny start (Marlins 2-2 in Davis-called-Penny-starts)())

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New car, caviar, four-star daydream
Think I'll buy me a football team
(yeah right-Pink Floyd-Money)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

PASS on Cards@KC: I think KC will suffer without Sweeney, and their BP is brutal, but Tomko not rated (here) much higher than George (who allegedly HAS potential). Cards 59%**

PASS on A's@SF as Giants BP has been stronger lately and Hendrix-only-know what Foppert will bring. Mulder solid in career vs SF while Foppert not-so-hot in 1 vs. Dye probably missing one more here. A's 54%*

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Dodgers(Perez-)@Angels(Sele+++)
P.OPS: LA: 635, Angels: 762
PITCH: LA: 79, Angels: 76
--I have the Dodgers BP top-ranked, with the Angels BP likely to remain no better than 2nd all-year (as I have them now); Dodgers bats (still) stink, especially vs righties, and they certainly cannot afford to have the injury problems that they're now experiencing (e.g. McGriff, Jordan, Hundley). Angels missing Fullmer, but they're hitting lefties .296 at home on the year, and may be pumped to try and sweep the hot Dodgers (& state-rival) here. Perez a bit improved lately. Sele has been pretty gross, but he is 4-0 in 4 career starts vs Dodgers, with a 1.16 era. Calling Angels 62%**
Price: Angels -105 (PV +10)
PLAY:
2.1/2

SOMEBODY CORRECT THIS IF (LIKELY/POSSIBLY) WRONG:
205*62=12,710 return
105*100=10,500 risk
profit=2210

R.O.I.=
2210
-----------....=21%
10,500

Does that make sense?
If so, then R.O.I. and gambling make strange bedfellows: a two-team parlay of 2 +100 lines (assuming a 60% probability for the games, making the parlay 36% likely and a true +300 (need 25%)for PV+11, again higher than PV+10 for a 60% at +100) gives a higher R.O.I. than the 60%'s alone: 44% ROI for the 36% parlay and 20% ROI on the straight.

"Something REEAALLLY wrong is goin' on here"
(me and Pacino)

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Padres(Jarvis--)@M's(Garcia+++)
P.OPS: Padres: 727, M's: 760
PITCH: Padres: 65, M's: 84
--unlike the Dodgers, the M's occasionally have games where the break-out offensively; I kinda expect this to be one of those occasions; Garcia has been mostly good lately (incl. 3-0 w/1.23 era over past 3), and M's pen AND defense are both much, much better than Padres'. Highest # I got today, Mariners 75%(runline 65%)***
Price: Mariners -260 (PV +2)
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Price: M's -1.5 -130 (PV +8)
ON:
2.6/2

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Mets(Leiter)@Yankees(Weaver)
P.OPS: Mets: 724, Yanks: 797
PITCH: Mets: 75, Yanks: 68
--Weaver, I think, has proven that he can perform (crappily) consistently as a Yankee - tough to figure out; Leiter seems to have only the odd good game these days, but Mets have a chance to score here - not a lefty, a not a nasty-non-lefty at that. Mets pen still brutal but Yanks pen also a liability this year (compared to most for them). Neither team top-ranked defensively, either, making the over a temptation, but HP Hohn NOT helping much there (he's 31-18 unders in career). Somebody talk me into this over. For now I'm on Mets small, as I figure if I wait and bet it later it may have moved against me (I can't see big $upport for Weaver). Call is NYY 54%**
Price: Mets +150 (PV +6 at 46%)
PLAY:
0.5/0.75

Hindsight often declares that betting against the Yankees was silly.

Somebody talk me into this over.

Here's hoping economic ruin doesn't somber your mood.

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Got to be a joker he just do what he please
(Beatles-Abbey Road-Come Together)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Added:
Cubs
1.05/1

THE WORKS
----------------
Jays -1.5 -+- 1/1.1
Astros -1.5 -+- 1/1.2
Cubs -+- 1.05/1
Bosox -1.5 -+- 1/1
Angels -+- 2.1/2
Mariners -1.5 -+- 2.6/2
Mets -+- 0.5/0.75


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Will I be back tomorrow for the punch line of the joke
(James-Rides Again-The Bomber)