Sunday Baseball

RobertBIrish

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Baltimore (Lopez) @ Texas (Rogers)


Going to be playing the under in this game and I will tell you why.

Baltimore sends out Rodrigo Lopez for the start here today who has been a solid starter for them so far, he is 6-3 on the year with a solid ERA of 3.07 and a WHIP of 1.200 with the under cashing in 8 times out of his 13 starts including going 5-1 in his last 6 starts. This is his first trip to the mound against the Rangers so they may take a couple trips through the order to get the feel for him.

Texas counters with the one pitcher in their rotation that has been solid Kenny Rogers with a 9-4 record on the year and an ERA of 3.11 with a WHIP of 1.209, when he gets the start at home he pitches even better with his ERA dropping to 2.17 and a WHIP of 1.130 with a 4-2 record. The under is a solid 6-2 when he starts at home. He has 10 starts against the Birds since '97 with him having a 4-2 record in those starts and an ERA of 4.14 but a very solid WHIP of 1.248.

Baltimore is 10-15 against left-handed starters and are batting .233 as a team against them on the road, they are averaging just 3.7 runs a game against them on the year with a very poor on base percentage of .315. The defense is allowing their opponents to score 4.5 runs a game while the bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.79.

The Texas offense is averaging 5.1 runs a game against righties at home but they are only managing 4.4 runs of support when Rogers gets the start while the defense is giving up 5.5 but believe it or not they are very solid when it comes to giving up errors with only 48 so far this year with 29 of those at home. The bullpen has been horrible but Rogers averages 6.42 innings a start.

We get an extra kicker for the under here with Jim Reynolds behind home plate, the under is a solid 12-5 when he makes the calls with an average of 7.39 runs a game, he has a strike out to walk ratio of 1.87 with the under going 3-1 when set at 9.5.

Bottom line is that we have two solid pitchers on the mound with a pitchers ump on the last day before the all-star break.

Playing Under 9.5 +100
 

Nolan Dalla

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I have been thinking about this game going UNDER myself. Only trouble is -- once the Rangers bullpen takes the field, ANYTING in possible. Wouldn't surprise me to see Rogers leave the game with a 4-3 lead to see the pen five up 3-4 more runs.

Excellent write up -- and excellent analysis.
 

loophole

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i was going to post this play up myself but am content to give a big thumbs up to your analysis. i'll throw in the orioles career numbers vs rodgers:

batista 1/12 .083 .083 slg%
bordick 10/54 .185 .222 slg%
cordova 4/30 .133 .133 slg%
fordyce 1/4 .250 .250 slg%
hairston 1/5 .200 .200 slg%
mora 1/5 .200 .200 slg%
singleton 0/5 .000 .000 slg%


by my count, orioles have a grand total of 2 extra-base hits in 115 a/b's vs rodgers. that gives us as good a chance as we can get that rodgers will go deep into this game and keep the shakey ranger bullpen off the field. fwiw, orioles are 4-8 to the under vs lefthanders on the road, averaging 2.8 rpg, and are 3-11-2 to the under last 16 away.

finally, no ranger has ever faced lopez.
 

Terryray

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TX over is 12-1-1 in last game of series, last 14 series.

TX over is 17-5-1 at home last 23.

ump Reynolds over has hit 11-2 the last 13 Balt and TX games he officiatied at HP (vs various opponents)

over is 3-1 Rogers last 4 starts vs Balt.


Should I put much stock into these trends?
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RobertBIrish

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Trends have been going the other way all year to be honest I don't put allot of stock in them in baseball , I do use them but believe recent form and results is more important. Just my 2 cents.
 

kcwolf

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For those of you who know me, you know I mean no harm to anyone. Love discussing things like this (trends) so we all can learn. Not here to trash anyone.

Personally, I only use trends over a 7-10 game period, for the most part. Generally, baseball must be handicapped that way on all key handicapping stats. There are exceptions which would require a very lengthy reply. Even then, trends should be on the bottom of your list in handicapping games.

I use 12-18 capping statistics in evaluating a play in baseball. They vary in importance and are constantly evaluated as to where they stand for a particular play, on a seasonal basis for sure, and daily as needed.

Bottomline, try not to get caught up on trends, it wil miss direct your focus on more important things in generating a plus side.
 
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