cinci/stlouis
looking at bell's last 4 (2 at home, 2 away), he is showing a about 5 era. his record, at 0-3, shows two losses which could have been wins, throwing 8 innings, and allowing 2 earned runs, and 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs. he is nothing spectacular.
matthews shows about a 4 era in his last 3, his only starts, and relies heavily on his bullpen, going only 5.1 innings on average.
conclusion is that at a 1 run disadvantage for cinci, i will take the +180, strictly as value, as i don't think this game is worth more than 140/130.
this is a madjack special, rare double bet:
sanfran/colo
the numbers here are so overwhelming in favor of s.f., that it is a no-brainer in my mind, especially getting +135.
gardner's last 4, again, 2 at home, 2 away, shows us a puny less than 1 era, but only 1 win to show for it. there really is not much more to say here.
astacio's last 4 show an era over 7 and 3 losses to show for it, quite fitting for that type of performance. here is a golden 6 run differential in era, and a must play.
both pitcher's trends/performances are truly going in opposite directions. sanfran
this next one shows some strange trends which lead me to pick it:
tampa at seattle
sturtze is now making his 6th appearance as a starter, showing a 2(away)-2(home) record and a 6 plus era in his last 4 games, and playing red hot seattle, kill them, right? not so fast. this man has some strange showings at home vs. away, so here it goes: his last 3 at home, oh, i don't even want to figure it out. they are bad. let's see his last 2 away as a starter, which includes his last game pitched: 14 innings, 11 hits, 7 bb, and an era of, what, my calculator is smoking, here it comes......, oh, it broke down. anyway 1 earned run in his last 14 innings away. want to go the whole year, both as a starter and reliever, again, away? 24 innings, 3 earned runs, let's see, that is like a 1 point something, i guess.
so what about freddy garcia? well, this is actually a challenge, and the only reason for my pick is the overwhelming odds against tampa. garcia has been pitching decent ball lately, going 2-0 in his last 4, showing about a 4 era, which include 2- 7 inning, 1 run games, but again, he has been near flawless at home, so the immovable object (in my opinion) gets hit by an unstoppable force, what is the outcome? oh, gimme the +240.
wrap-up
cinci +180
sanfr +135 double bet
tampa +240
pep
looking at bell's last 4 (2 at home, 2 away), he is showing a about 5 era. his record, at 0-3, shows two losses which could have been wins, throwing 8 innings, and allowing 2 earned runs, and 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs. he is nothing spectacular.
matthews shows about a 4 era in his last 3, his only starts, and relies heavily on his bullpen, going only 5.1 innings on average.
conclusion is that at a 1 run disadvantage for cinci, i will take the +180, strictly as value, as i don't think this game is worth more than 140/130.
this is a madjack special, rare double bet:
sanfran/colo
the numbers here are so overwhelming in favor of s.f., that it is a no-brainer in my mind, especially getting +135.
gardner's last 4, again, 2 at home, 2 away, shows us a puny less than 1 era, but only 1 win to show for it. there really is not much more to say here.
astacio's last 4 show an era over 7 and 3 losses to show for it, quite fitting for that type of performance. here is a golden 6 run differential in era, and a must play.
both pitcher's trends/performances are truly going in opposite directions. sanfran
this next one shows some strange trends which lead me to pick it:
tampa at seattle
sturtze is now making his 6th appearance as a starter, showing a 2(away)-2(home) record and a 6 plus era in his last 4 games, and playing red hot seattle, kill them, right? not so fast. this man has some strange showings at home vs. away, so here it goes: his last 3 at home, oh, i don't even want to figure it out. they are bad. let's see his last 2 away as a starter, which includes his last game pitched: 14 innings, 11 hits, 7 bb, and an era of, what, my calculator is smoking, here it comes......, oh, it broke down. anyway 1 earned run in his last 14 innings away. want to go the whole year, both as a starter and reliever, again, away? 24 innings, 3 earned runs, let's see, that is like a 1 point something, i guess.
so what about freddy garcia? well, this is actually a challenge, and the only reason for my pick is the overwhelming odds against tampa. garcia has been pitching decent ball lately, going 2-0 in his last 4, showing about a 4 era, which include 2- 7 inning, 1 run games, but again, he has been near flawless at home, so the immovable object (in my opinion) gets hit by an unstoppable force, what is the outcome? oh, gimme the +240.
wrap-up
cinci +180
sanfr +135 double bet
tampa +240
pep
