Sunday Dog Day

[Save It]

It's that time of year - perceptions are formed, spreads are rising - few weeks back i played every early dog and did very well - coming back w/ it this week - playing all 9 early game dogs - not a spread under 4 points...every close game (FG or less) will be a winner, every upset a winner...NFL week to week is anyone's guess - the points are just a bonus...don't overthink it - just put equal money on all 9 early plays & take these dogs:

Denver +7 (-120)
Oakland +10.5
Baltimore +7
Houston +8
Chicago +4
Cincinnati +9
Kansas City +5.5
Detroit +14
Minnesota +5

Also doing the same thing for the afternoon games - taking every dog:

Jacksonville +3 (Titans lose first game today)
Seattle +3 (AZ not same team on road - another good live home dog - should be pumped w/ hasslebeck returning)
Rams +7 (no difference between Rams & 49ers - game is even in my opinion - take the points)
Chargers +5 (might actually win one of these cross country games outright - Pitt been terrible as fave this year)


So 13 dogs today - I'm going to project that these 13 dogs go 8W-5L today...I put equal money on each - we'll see how it turns out...gl

 

[HUDSON]

GL Save!! I really like SD!!

 

[TontoKowalski]

Not a bad idea, actually. I've done similar things to this, backdoor covers really piss you off. Say for instance the raiders hang all game and lose by 14 on a last minute td or fg. that's really frustrating.

 

[Save It]

Not a bad idea, actually. I've done similar things to this, backdoor covers really piss you off. Say for instance the raiders hang all game and lose by 14 on a last minute td or fg. that's really frustrating.

The thing is at least what I have found in past is more games end up having the dog cover late than the fave covering - at least in all my historical past experiences...I just love taking anything over 7 in the NFL. There is no league where I believe public perception is so skewed. People tend to bet on what they just saw last week. I absolutely love the months of Nov & Dec in NFL - year in and out I use this contrarian approach to betting the NFL. Just not alot of value to be found these days laying 8, 9, 10, 14 pts in NFL.

One angle that I've used before as well, and has been very profitable over the years is at the half way point you see who the "good" and "bad" teams are. Historically I have gone against those 7-1, 6-2 teams, and played on those 1-7, 0-8 type of teams. The good teams are usually laying so many points, the bad teams receiving just a few more points than they should. This is a league of parity and year to year look at all the quick turnarounds and dropoffs. If a team starts out hot first half of year, they tend to regress a little in the 2nd half. And those bad teams tend to do better ATS in 2nd half.

Betting sports all comes down to the point spread value. Throw stats out the window in most cases. It's the perceptions that are formed that usually determine the results.

One of my favorite statements to make about betting football is perception is not reality - in NFL what usually appears to be the right side at first glance is not. I love dogs this time of year. GL w/ your plays!

 

[THE KOD]

I like this concept

gl with the dogs that bark loud

 

[baby johnson]

could play em all on the money line and get really f'n rich !!!!!:00hour :00hour

 

[TeeMo]

WOW.............

Well, for selfish purposes, I hope you're wrong today as I have most of the favorites !!!!!!:scared

 

[jer-z jock]

BOL today SI, nice to see you on the board nice and early:00hour