Sunday July 15th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday July 15th 2007

yesterday: 4-9 -5.11
July: 55-52 -1.62
ml 33-26 +1.39
rl 2-3 +0.25
totals 13-17 -6.41
parlays 7-6 +3.15
system picks 1-2 yesterday; 17-8 in July(68%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals pushed twice yesterday; 15-15 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Fla 55% (-157)-7 wash 45 (+149)+4
Atl 61 (-147)+1
Mets 63 (-185)-2
Mil 55 (-127)-1
hou 53 (+118)+7
Sf 59 (-115)+5
Ariz 64 (-152)+3
stl 51 (+113)+4
Clev 67 (-224)-3 RL 53 (-107)+1
Balt 52 (+100)+2
nyy 68 (-182)+3 RL 55 (-122)even
Bost 73 (-222)+4 RL 59 (+103)+9
oak 55 (-109)+2
Laa 64 (-191)-2
det 62 (-135)+4

system totals

wash@Fla ov9.5 62+3(ump)=65% --ump is decent over-ump Poncino
cin@Mets un9 80% (+100)+30 --ump Danley is even
col@Mil ov9 70 (-114)+16 --ump Everitt is even (though 11-6 UNDER this year)
nyy@Tbay ov10.5 62+5(ump)=67% --ump Bucknor one of the better over-umps
det@Seat un9 65 (-125)+9 --ump Knight is even (low K% this season but 9-6 on the under)


That stunk. Chisox and Padres shoulda both been winners, but were undone by the bullpens. Went a pathetic 1-4 on the moneyline. Survived my parlays and my totals but got burned on what I thought was a nice team total (D'Backs under 4). System sides did go a decent 9-6 Saturday, hitting a 72, a 70, a couple of 67's and a 65; missed the high number with Indians 73%...Sabathia lookin' shaky recently. Numbers are hitting, it just looks like I got some bad breaks Saturday so I won't take it too hard. Sunday figures to be a light one for me.

Astros, Giants and Tigers have my interest. Maybe a piece of the D'Backs, Yanks and Bosox, maybe some parlay action. Nothing looks great. For totals, that Shea number looks kinda high the way this series has gone; Reds with only 2 hits off of lefty Glavine yesterday so I don't expect a ton from them today (OPS vs L only .714 and that goes way down when they're away from home); Lohse has been dynamite lately, too, and the Mets are only OPS .740 vs righthanders and that number is lower at Shea. I also like the Yankees to have their best outburst of the series today vs Jackson and Co.; D'Rays have showed that they can score off of the Rocket and Wang, so I can't see Mussina keeping them quiet; add in a great over-ump in C.B. Bucknor and this is a great scenario for the over. Other totals are unlikely for me, though I may look at some team totals.

Lookin' to rebound.
Will post what's played.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

without further ado...

without further ado...

here are the team totals I'll consider:
(relative system number; + for overs, etc)

Marlins ov5.5 +125 (+6)
reds u4 -120 (-14)
rockies ov4.5 -105 (+6)
padres u4 -125 (-11)
cards ov5 +105 (+8)
Indians ov6 +115 (+11)
yankees ov6 -115 (+18)a couple of points higher than yesterday, where the Yanks went over the 5.5
jays u4.5 -130 (-10)
Bosox ov5.5 -130 (+8)
Twins u4 -130 (-8)
Mariners u4 -115 (-10)


That's the biggest numbers I've got.
Often the runline is equivalent to playing a team over, making a decision necessary. Bosox and Yankees fall in there today. I think I like the Yankees to score lots Sunday MORE than I like them to win by 2...D'Rays may get their share. Bosox should score, though they might not need 6 with Beckett going; a bit hard to bet against my team (Jays) but I think that the 73% call on the game is justified; line may be kinda high to tackle but I'll be looking at a parlay or the runline (or both).
Twins and M's under don't look so hot.
I'd only try reds un, rocks ov, padres un, cards ov, Clev ov, or nyy ov. Bosox over I think I'd pass on for the runline.

A lot of what I'm considering for Sunday seems sketchy (Astros, Giants, Tigers).
Don't feel good vibes right now.
Might be best to take the day off, but that's a longshot for me (+666).
That Padres collapse cost me over 5 units.
Went outside for some fresh air at 4-1 and when I came back 10 minutes later it was 4-4.
Still got a bad taste in my mouth.
Need to wash it away with a winning Sunday.
I plan to play carefully.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

great...Wandy is 0-2 (8.38 era) in 2 starts at Wrigley.

Those 16 consecutive scoreless innings that he's working on WERE against decent opponent's, mind you (Rocks and Mets).

Marquis doesn't have great numbers vs the Astros (4.92 era, BAA .301), and he's coming off of a real stinker vs the Powerful Pirates.

Bitch of a game to call.
I would have liked it better if 'Stros had won Saturday (another one I HAD the lead in, to go along with Padres, Tigers, and Chisox).
Astros 36% winners away to righties.
Cubs 50% winners at home to lefties.

I think I might be looking for action a little too desperately...analyzing this game--that past 10 minutes or so--kind makes me think that it's a coin-toss, AT BEST, what with how the Cubbies seem to be coming on strong. Wandy's 2 beauties may be (likely) an aberration (sic?). Astros 53% is generous, if anything. Current line I can get has a little value...

astros 53% (+115)+6 V.I.

53 x 1.15 = 60.95
47 x -1.....= -47
------------------------------
...................13.95%

Acceptable, but I prefer my higher probabilities; with a 47% (at least, I'd say) chance of failure, a 13% return doesn't thrill me.

Moving on to the next game...

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Philly

in Philly

coin-toss side, by my calculations

I was looking at the over, but Jim Wolf as umpire is totally an under-ump in 2007.

Cards 41% winners on the road to righties.
Phillies 56% winners at home to righties.
Doesn't help much there.

Wainwright has been decent, but not as good as he was 4-6 weeks ago, while Eaton has been trash his last 4 or 5.

Slight edge Cards but I've got the same dilemma as with the Astros game...almost exactly.

Would be lower ROI, due to the lower call.
I almost flipped it to Phillies 51% due to them AGAIN mashing the Cards pitching, but decided to leave the edge with Wainwright over Eaton here.

No WAY I can touch the Cards here.
Too bad Eaton is such a dog...reasonable line for the Phillies here the way they're going.
I'd feel like a fool if I played Philly and they lost (what with my Cards 51% call), so I'm a spectator here.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

de la Rosa with 3 straight W's, including beating the M's and Angels.

Royals don't look so bad...at times.

Carmona has never thrilled me much.
He actually surprised me this season.

Looked at the runline...but only for a second.

Passola.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

de la Rosa with 3 straight W's, including beating the M's and Angels.

Royals don't look so bad...at times.

Carmona has never thrilled me much.
He actually surprised me this season.

Looked at the runline...but only for a second.

Passola.

:SIB

I totally agree Ex...the only play on the Injuns is the RL...I think this is Carmona's career year...Indains have been my team since I was a wee little lad, but De La Pasta has been throwing well lately...will probably throw the Injuns RL in a par somewhere, but this kid is due to get lit up and somewhere along the line this season the Royals realized that they are playing Major League baseball and to me have gone from pretty much a team to bet against everytime to a decent dog....Gl to what ya do!! I really appreciate all the work you do and think that your system is great!!!

Gl today!!
MoeshY-13-

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, MY-13,

I appreciate it.

Need some serious breaks with my crazy action for Sunday; lotsa juice-laden parlays goin' on.

I was just about to post my mess.

Might as well.
I'm done.
For better or for worse.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYS

no system picks today

other picks

Giants -115 1.15/1
D'Backs -152 1.52/1
Bosox -1.5 +100 0.75/0.75
tigers -135 2.02/1.5

totals

cin@Mets u9 +100 1/1
nyy@Tb ov10.5 -105 1.05/1

2-teamer
--Mets ml
--Indians ml
+126
0.5/0.63

2-teamer
--Mets ml
--yankees ml
+140
0.71/1

3-teamer
--Indians ml
--yankees ml
--Bosox ml
+230
0.5/1.15

2-teamer
--yankees ml
--Bosox ml
+126
1.19/1.5

2-teamer
--reds under 4
--Bosox ml
+164
0.5/0.82

9-team IF bet
1.wash@Fla ov9.5 0.55/0.5
2.astros 0.5/0.58
3.Bosox -1.5 0.57/0.5
4.cin@Mets un9 0.7/0.7
5.Giants 0.87/0.7
6.nyy over 6 1.15/1
7.D'Backs -1.5 0.74/1
8.tigers 1.45/1
9.cards 0.6/0.69
0.55 to win max.6.66 (there's that number again?"I been around for a long long years, stole many a man's soul and faith?")


Bit the bullet near the end, there, and put the Indians on a couple of parlays. Big calls in the AL but I'm hoping to bag the bunch (Injuns,yanks,Bosox). Tigers, Giants, and D'Backs I just couldn't pass on (D'Backs have my +5/5 requirement for >-150's; just barely with the sticks?pathetic Padres bats?). I like the totals I've got, too, and if I could just get some wins on totals then my July would be looking better. I'd be thrilled with a plus, today?I've kinda made a mess of my selections, on further review; too much parlay action?my July plus is gonna become an ex-plus real soon if I keep pushing my luck like this. Yanks and Bosox look solid; Mets and Indians have little excuse for losing today as well. Maybe I should be optimistic.

Can't say squat about Monday as I haven't even looked. Got 3 or 4 days ahead of the game but now I'm about even, or maybe behind (Monday's shouldn't take long). I still need to update the past 2 days worth of stats; system sides went 10-4 and then 9-6 so that 19-10 (65.5%) shouldn't hurt. I see that system sides for July WERE 78-45 (63.4%), so the past 2 days now gives me, for July, 97-55 (63.8% winners). For ALL games that's spectacular, but I don't think that can keep up the whole month; gimme the high calls, that's whatIneed.

See you tomorrow.
GL

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Gl today EX!!! Once again...I truly appreciate all the work you put into your system and think you are turly onto a great thing!!!!! :00hour

 

[spang]

Surprising to me that you are passing on the Royals at a big number today. De la Rosa has great stuff but lacked consistency but it appears that he has settled in as of late. I also like that he threw a gem in a game I attended at the Jake last month, ironically losing a tough 1-0 decision vs. Sabathia.

Kc is a must play for me at that number, but if it falls beyond the parameters of your system I understand you passing the game.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks MY-13,
it's a bit of work but I enjoy it for the most part.
more so if I can get on a roll.

I've looked at Monday. Lotsa games for a Monday--full NL slate.
Lots of poor matchups happening (i.e. crappy starting pitching) so I'm thinking it might be OVER-day.
Haven't 'capped it yet, but the following matchups sound like over material to me before I even 'cap 'em:
col@Pitt (bucholz-van benschoten)
hou-wash (williams-bacsik)
stl-fla (looper-kim)
ariz-Mil (owings-bush)
mets@Sd (sosa-wells)
kc-bost (bannister-gabbard)
tor-nyy (towers-igawa)might play over 12 here
even cws-clev (danks-lee)
and maybe the topper...
gimme a 9 and I'll feel fine...
tex-oak (wright-komine)

I don't know about sides.
Dodgers, in Penny vs Moyer...maybe (Lad won 58% at home to L while Phillies won 59% away to R); if Penny is healthy you'd think he could tame the Phillies; Phillies scored, what?, 23 runs in the past 2?...they score 6 or more, today off of Wainwright and Co., and I can't play against them tomorrow.

Lincecum-Hill in Chicago sounds interesting, and will likely result in a fairly even call; maybe a low 50's for the Cubs due to an edge at the plate; Hill on the downswing currently but Giants OPS vs L only .701; I see that Giants have also won 50% of their games away vs lefties, so maybe this is a spot for them. Sounds like a coin-toss, sorta like the Cubs game today; play against the Cubs right now at great risk, perhaps.

Brewers, with some decent play, could easily sweep their series with the D'Backs--they'll miss Webb here. If they can survive the Bush start, in the opener, then I'll like their chances. For the Bush start I might go up to -140. I'm not crazy about the guy. Keep it as low as 9 and I'll be all over the over.

None of the 5 AL games really looks appealing.
Might try a dogline on the Rangers in their opener with the A's

M's at home to the O's is another possible sweep scenario. (or do they face Bedard?). A decent line for the M's will interest me.

AL looks like heavy over territory.
Forget the sides.

I still need to 'cap them, but it looks like it will be mostly 50's as opposed to 60's or higher.
Jays are solid against lefties and face a dog in Igawa so even the Yanks number won't be that high; Towers coming off a solid game.

I should get some sleep.
Visiting the folks tomorrow.
I might not even check the scores until about 9 or 10 pm.
Kinda cool to go through them, one by one, and see just the final results.
Hell of a lot better when they're favourable, mind you.
I think the last time I did so was way back on Father's Day.
Went 5-0.

:SIB