Happy Canada Day!
:canada1
Sunday July 1st 2007
yesterday: 6-5 +4.10
April: 122-111 -4.21
May: 180-144 +51.40
June: 176-165 +7.38
2007: 478-420 +54.57
system picks 4-1 yesterday, ending the month on a nice little 6-1 run (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system picks April 30-20 (60%)
system picks May 52-23 (69%)
system picks June 50-37 (57%)
system totals 1-2 yesterday but still on a 6 day run of 11-4
system totals April 45-53 (46%)
system totals May 61-41 (60%)
system totals June 75-40 (65%)
Final 3 months is where this hard work should really start to pay off.
I'm looking for more of what May gave me, for July.
Then it won't seem like "work".
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
atl 53% (+114)+6
Cin 56 (-108)+4
Pitt 64 (-145)+4
Phil 52 (Kendrick-Pelfrey)
Hou 55 (-129)-2
Cubs 62 (-113)+8
Sf 55 (-129)-2
sd 54 (+107)+5
tb 54 (+131)+10
Nyy 53 (-135)-5
Det 59 (-163)-3
Balt 52 (+130)+8
Bost 52 (-170)-11 tex 48 (+162)+9
cws 60 (-110)+7
tor 55 (-109)+2
system totals
ariz@Sf un8.5 65% (-110)+12 --ump Vanover is even
tb@Clev ov9.5 69 (+109)+21 --Meriwether is a slight over-ump
laa@Balt un9 68 (-130)+11 --Davis is a slight over-ump; sucks?I like this one
tor@Seat un9.5 73 (-125)+17 --Holbrook is an over-ump; pass here
That's a decent way to end the month. Bosox was the only system pick missed and it's still got me shaking my head; shouldn't bitch?hit Brewers, Braves, Giants and Indians. Went 1-2 on totals but hit the big one. Went 1-1 on parlays to pick up almost 1?wow?brings my parlay minus to LESS THAN 18 units for the month. Somebody remind me of that number if I start posting lots of parlays again?I could have cleared 25 units for June if I hadn't parlayed anything. Stunned to be in the plus as it is; this last month was full of bad breaks for me, it seemed. Goodbye Norma June?
Sunday looks like a fine day to take it easy. 10 of 15 calls at 55% or less?lotsa crapshoots on today's board, if you ask me. Braves are a thought the way they're going, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Marlins salvage this one with Willis. Tempted (again) to try the Reds Bailey, but I was hoping for dog money on that one. Pirates Maholm has looked better lately and faces a very hittable Bacsik here; I probably would have tried the Nats if Bergmann starts here, but with this matchup it's Pirates or nothing for me; hard to lay this kinda juice with a crappy team using, arguably, a crappy starter, no matter how crappy their opponent. Cubs is my biggest lean, right now; might try a piece there. Shields has looked good against the Indians before, and the D'Rays are really smokin' lefties (OPS .829); I think I've already played the D'Rays 3 times over the past week and have been a loser each time so I'm hesitant to back them here; it is a system call, with that +10 V.I., but a 54% call isn't going to get too much of my money no matter what the line?well?talk to me at +200 but don't expect much from me at +131. White Sox are just barely a system pick also, and I think I like them about as much as I like the Cubs; Garland has done great work vs Royals in his career and this Thomson experiment probably won't pan out the second time around like it did the first; Chisox playing good ball last week or two also?'course?look at their competition (D'Rays, Royals). Orioles are another thought, but again I'm looking at a low call (52%) which doesn't get me too excited.
Totals have a couple of umpire-kills, though Davis (in Balt) might be tolerable to play an under with; probably should just get a 5 or 10% penalty for the under, maybe bringing the call to something like 58-63% for the under; not a sytem total then, because of the umpire, and who wants to lay -130 on a 58% proposition anyway? (57% break-even mark for -130's). Passing in Seattle because of the umpire, too. Giants game under looks maybe worth a shot and Indians game over also.
I probably won't have much more to offer today, save for my picks?I'm going to try and do some updates, now that it's month end. I'm running on fumes right now, as it is.
GL
:canada1
Sunday July 1st 2007
yesterday: 6-5 +4.10
April: 122-111 -4.21
May: 180-144 +51.40
June: 176-165 +7.38
2007: 478-420 +54.57
system picks 4-1 yesterday, ending the month on a nice little 6-1 run (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system picks April 30-20 (60%)
system picks May 52-23 (69%)
system picks June 50-37 (57%)
system totals 1-2 yesterday but still on a 6 day run of 11-4
system totals April 45-53 (46%)
system totals May 61-41 (60%)
system totals June 75-40 (65%)
Final 3 months is where this hard work should really start to pay off.
I'm looking for more of what May gave me, for July.
Then it won't seem like "work".
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
atl 53% (+114)+6
Cin 56 (-108)+4
Pitt 64 (-145)+4
Phil 52 (Kendrick-Pelfrey)
Hou 55 (-129)-2
Cubs 62 (-113)+8
Sf 55 (-129)-2
sd 54 (+107)+5
tb 54 (+131)+10
Nyy 53 (-135)-5
Det 59 (-163)-3
Balt 52 (+130)+8
Bost 52 (-170)-11 tex 48 (+162)+9
cws 60 (-110)+7
tor 55 (-109)+2
system totals
ariz@Sf un8.5 65% (-110)+12 --ump Vanover is even
tb@Clev ov9.5 69 (+109)+21 --Meriwether is a slight over-ump
laa@Balt un9 68 (-130)+11 --Davis is a slight over-ump; sucks?I like this one
tor@Seat un9.5 73 (-125)+17 --Holbrook is an over-ump; pass here
That's a decent way to end the month. Bosox was the only system pick missed and it's still got me shaking my head; shouldn't bitch?hit Brewers, Braves, Giants and Indians. Went 1-2 on totals but hit the big one. Went 1-1 on parlays to pick up almost 1?wow?brings my parlay minus to LESS THAN 18 units for the month. Somebody remind me of that number if I start posting lots of parlays again?I could have cleared 25 units for June if I hadn't parlayed anything. Stunned to be in the plus as it is; this last month was full of bad breaks for me, it seemed. Goodbye Norma June?
Sunday looks like a fine day to take it easy. 10 of 15 calls at 55% or less?lotsa crapshoots on today's board, if you ask me. Braves are a thought the way they're going, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Marlins salvage this one with Willis. Tempted (again) to try the Reds Bailey, but I was hoping for dog money on that one. Pirates Maholm has looked better lately and faces a very hittable Bacsik here; I probably would have tried the Nats if Bergmann starts here, but with this matchup it's Pirates or nothing for me; hard to lay this kinda juice with a crappy team using, arguably, a crappy starter, no matter how crappy their opponent. Cubs is my biggest lean, right now; might try a piece there. Shields has looked good against the Indians before, and the D'Rays are really smokin' lefties (OPS .829); I think I've already played the D'Rays 3 times over the past week and have been a loser each time so I'm hesitant to back them here; it is a system call, with that +10 V.I., but a 54% call isn't going to get too much of my money no matter what the line?well?talk to me at +200 but don't expect much from me at +131. White Sox are just barely a system pick also, and I think I like them about as much as I like the Cubs; Garland has done great work vs Royals in his career and this Thomson experiment probably won't pan out the second time around like it did the first; Chisox playing good ball last week or two also?'course?look at their competition (D'Rays, Royals). Orioles are another thought, but again I'm looking at a low call (52%) which doesn't get me too excited.
Totals have a couple of umpire-kills, though Davis (in Balt) might be tolerable to play an under with; probably should just get a 5 or 10% penalty for the under, maybe bringing the call to something like 58-63% for the under; not a sytem total then, because of the umpire, and who wants to lay -130 on a 58% proposition anyway? (57% break-even mark for -130's). Passing in Seattle because of the umpire, too. Giants game under looks maybe worth a shot and Indians game over also.
I probably won't have much more to offer today, save for my picks?I'm going to try and do some updates, now that it's month end. I'm running on fumes right now, as it is.
GL
