Sunday July 29th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday July 29th 2007

yesterday: 4-4 -3.49
July: 134-123 +11.36
ml 73-56 +2.59
rl 9-5 +7.31
totals 28-32 -6.36
parlays 24-30 +7.82
system picks 0-2 yesterday; 34-23 in July (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; 43-41 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mets 73 (-220)+4 RL 58 (+104)+8
cubs 65 (-149)+5 RL 51 (+109)+3
Phil 59 (-133)+1
Hou 58 (Jennings-Stauffer)
mil 56 (-126)even
Col 61 (+101)+11
fla 57 (-107)+5
atl 61 (-133)+3
Clev 63 (-183)-2
nyy 62 (-172)-2
bost 58 (-143)-1
Cws 56 (-119)+1
Kc 53 (-103)+2
det 60 (-124)+4
oak 53 (+126)+8

system totals

bost@Tb un9 70% (-125)+14 --ump Johnson is even (best I can tell; he hasn't been around long)
tex@Kc ov10 66% (+105)+17 --ump unknown; Tichenor was at 1st, yesterday, but he's umped 1 game in his career so he may be skipped (the 1 played over)
oak@Seat un9 67 (-120)+12 --ump Knight is even


I took the wrong day off. System sides went 11-3 on Friday but were below .500 for Saturday. Feel like I should take another day off, but I've already made some plays so I'm hoping the cookie crumbles a little better tomorrow. My last 2 days of wagering has pretty much cut my July plus in half; worse than that, I'm now doing better on parlays and runlines than I am for moneylines this month; moneylines were my strength in April, May and June, PLUS system sides are hitting at somewhere near 60% for the month for ALL games, so my tiny moneyline plus (lost over 5u there yesterday) has me somewhat dismayed. At least Saturday was only half as bad, financially, as Thursday was, and about 1/10th as painful. I'm still glad it's over, mind you.

Cubs and Rockies are system picks today, if that means anything anymore (1-5 over the past 3 days). Cubs not only have a big mismatch at SP for this game, but the already poor Reds bullpen got a good workout yesterday and will probably be needed today as Belisle can't be expected to go too deep (he's made it through 7 IP only once in his past 9 starts). Rockies Jimenez has looked pretty good over his first 2 starts but has lacked run support. I'm taking a chance on him while he's still affordable; always the chance that his first two starts are a bit of an illusion, though, as he's faced only the Nationals and the Padres?not exactly powerhouses at the plate.

I've also got the Tigers; I think that they can get to Moseley for several runs and Bonderman should be able to last long enough to prevent the Angels from seeing too much of their lousy bullpen. Mets I've already got on a pair of parlays that somehow survived yesterday (w/Phillies & Twins) so I don't know if I want to try more on the runline or not. Not too anxious to make any more side bets after missing my 3 biggest ones yesterday. Marlins, Braves and A's I probably leave alone for the same reason, though all look possible for Sunday.

Boston-T'Bay under is the only total that interests me, but again I think I'll stick with the few plays I've already got and leave it at that. The ump is a total unknown and these clubs put up huge numbers yesterday. Both starters have done excellent work vs the opponent, mind you.

I haven't had a winning day since Wednesday.
I sorta forget what it feels like.
Lookin' for a reminder on Sunday.

Will post plays within the hour.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I don't live today. Maybe tomorrow. I just can't say.

I don't live today. Maybe tomorrow. I just can't say.

PLAYS

system picks

cubs -149 2.98/2
Rockies +101 2/2.02

other picks

tigers -124 2.48/2


Leaving it at that.
Cubs look like the best play on the board to me, but the last 4 "best" plays on the board "to me" have all lost (2 Thursday & 2 Saturday), so I ain't pounding nothing right now.
Two of three and I'll be happy. I miss all 3 and I think I'll take the last 2 days of July off.
I calculate a 5% chance of that happening, but I've been beating those odds my last couple of tries.

Here's to the rebirth of cool.
:toast:
Not fade away.
:SIB

 

[bryanz]

I have to say it because I'm thinking it, that's me. First let me state the obvious. Thank you for ALL THE HARD WORK & COMMITMENT TO WHAT YOU DO. I couldn't do it. Yesterday you had Mil in both games. You bet against a team that was on a 5-3 run against left handers. The brewers were also 4-9L13 road....... 7-7L 14 -vs- right handers.... 3-7L 10 in day games. If I have any understanding of your post, your system is based on stats. What made the brewers a play in both games ? I broke one of my rules yesterday and bet against a streaking team. When I saw your plays on Mil, I thought, what does he know.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

hey bryanz,

I'm far from perfect. That should be obvious how my last few cracks have gone.

I had the Brewers with an edge in BOTH games at the plate. I'm sure you know, the Brewers were way up in the first game but their usually strong pen blew it.

The second game was close, and there was really no excuse for the Brewers not producing off of Reyes, who I believe was 0-10 with an era over 6. That was a key factor for the call in game #2. The Cards may have been on a nice, short run against lefties, but overall their work against lefties is pretty poor. Capuano had been looking better lately, too.

For what it's worth, that was my take on the games.
Included in the 'cap was a hefty penalty to the Brewers for being the road team and a good-sized bonus for the Cards at home. Kinda indicates that I had the Brewers--if it were on neutral turf--as very large favorites.

Can't do nothing about the past.
Please, next time, ask me BEFORE the games are final.

Maybe you can save me some money, aye?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

early look at Monday

early look at Monday

quiet board; just 5 games

I've 'capped them and I've got the visitor as probable in each game (except in Oakland).

Jays have the highest call.

Looks like there's some value on the Jays, Royals and Phillies.

Tough to go against Lilly right now--or the Cubs in general--but the Cubs have a tough time against lefties (even more so than the Phillies), Hamels has been quite sharp lately, and the past 7 days has the Phillies OPS at .922 while the Cubs OPS was .677.

No promising totals.
Maybe the under at Wrigley, but Hendrix-only-knows when they finally open that one.