Sunday June 24th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday June 24th 2007

yesterday: 7-6 +2.64
June: 143-132 +7.64
ml 69-50 +9.79
rl 10-11 -6.01
totals 52-35 +20.05
parlays 12-36 -16.19
system picks 3-2 yesterday; now 118-72 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 5-3 yesterday; now 63-35 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

phil 65% (-169)+2 RL 50 (-109)-3
min 59 (-211)-9 Fla 41 (+193)+6
det 60 (-114)+6
col 52 (+111)+4
Mets 68 (-143)+9 RL 53 (+150)+13
clev 60 (-155)-1
Tb 51 (+125)+6
Mil 74 (-175)+10 RL 61 (+114)+14
Laa 59 (-160)-3
Sd 57 (-121)+2
Seat 55 (-136)-3
nyy 55 (-157)-7 Sf 45 (+149)+4
balt 52 (+111)+4
cubs 58 (+102)+8
hou 51 (-107)-1

system totals

oak@Mets un8.5 77% --ump Montague is even
bost@Sd un7 86 --ump DeMuth is even
nyy@Sf un9 71 --ump Cuzzi is a good under-ump (always high K%)


I would have had this up sooner, but I was following the end of Bost-Sd pretty closely, hoping to pull off the under there, to save my totals day and to also save my total day. It gave me a plus instead of a small minus. I'll take it; was actually hoping for a better day yesterday?Astros sorta killed that idea?and the pitching change for the A's. On to a possible 3rd straight winning day?

System sides pulled off another 11-4 day, giving a 7-day record of 61-29 (67.7% winners). Should have hit 4 of 5 system picks, but the Orioles choked away an early 4-0 lead. Them's the breaks.

Today I like the Mets and the Brewers, but I think I'll try to take it easy on them. Other sides I need to look at further. A few totals worth trying, and I've already got myself a piece of the Beckett-Peavy under. That should be a very interesting game.

Will post what pleases me as the party progresses.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Mets 68% (-143)+9 V.I.

argument for game:
Mets .799 OPS vs lefties
A's .723 OPS vs righties
Maine coming in rated higher than Kennedy.
Both pens good, but slight edge to Mets.
Mets have the momentum; looking for the sweep.

-143 is 69.9 cents on the dollar
68 x 0.699 = 47.532
32 x -1......= -32
---------------------------------
...................15.532%

Not bad; there were some better returns yesterday. This result is a few points higher than the Astros (who lost) were yesterday.

68's, with the Astros loss yesterday, fall to 3-2 for June (60% winners) and 13-7 on the year (65% winners). Due to hit one...would bring the year's mark to 67%.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Brewers 74% (-175)+10 V.I.

argument for game:
Brewers .822 OPS vs lefties.
Brewers lead MLB in runs scored off lefties.
Brewers .817 OPS at home.
royals .716 OPS vs righties.
royals .677 OPS on the road.
royals have scored the second least runs on the road, ahead of only the Chisox.
Gallardo looked okay in hist first start, also at home, and comes in rated higher than Perez...that's AFTER giving Perez a reasonable bonus for his good career work vs Brewers...which probably comes to an end here.
Brewers bullpen WAY better than Royals.
Brewers have the momentum, taking the first two games seemingly with ease.

-175 is 57.1 cents on the dollar
74 x 0.571 = 42.254
26 x -1.......= -26
---------------------------------
....................16.254%

Obviously the better choice of the two, as we get a higher probability AND a better ROI.

74's are 0-1 in June and 5-2 (71.4%) for the year. Due for one here, too, which would bring me up to 75% (6 of 8).

I'm still not going to pound it.
Want a peaceful easy feeling kind of Sunday.
To pick up a few units would be a bonus.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I've got to attempt this one, too.
Looking like my play of the day, after all.

return on investment breakdown for Bost-Sd UNDER 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think that for totals my system calls might be a bit inflated; that's why I only make a 65% or higher a system call. Still...totals are on fire this month (not bad in May, too) and this game has got to be about as highly rated as an under-call could be...I'm going to stick with the system call of 86%.

Now the 86% call is to NOT LOSE money, so part of that has to be designated as a push-percent. I think that 7 has a good chance to hit--and so do the linesmakers, obviously--so I'm going to call it 20% probability of falling right on the 7.

86-20 = 66 times a winner

I got a better line than this, but it's currently at -125 so I'll stick with that.

-125 is 80 cents on the dollar
66 x 0.8 = 52.8%
14 x -1...= -14
----------------------------
.................38.8%

That's phenomenal. Even at the expensive price (for a total).

I have a slight lean to the Padres, and love Peavy, but I'm staying away from the sides and just going to hope that nobody scores...well, almost nobody...

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

A couple of umpire notes and things, before I try and get some sleep.

A few games I almost played simply because of the umpires, but I think I'll pass on; getting it off my chest here should be good enough; this way I can track how they do.

Rockies@Jays has Gorman ump'ing; he's an under-ump; system call is 52% over the 10; ump maybe makes it a 55% under proposition; passola crayola.
P.S. Don't believe everything you read (including here), or at least be careful about how certain things are interpreted--Brian Gorman is a definate under-ump. GL to those over players regardless...starting pitching matchup should help

Injuns@Nats has super-under Hirschbeck going; I'm almost tried the under 10 simply because of him; Simontacchi a long-shot to NOT get pounded; Injunsticks might have woken up the latter part of last game, and might carry it over here; Westbrook does Hendrix-knows-what; still...1st two in the series have played under; I still might try this one

Was thinking over 10 for lad@Tb; Jackson is trash and D'Rays smokin' lefties (OPS .831); ump Dowdy is even but seems to always have a pretty high K%, so walks may not happen so much; I dunno...Kuo has some nasty stuff, from what I saw vs the Jays...if he can harness it he could shut down the D'Rays; Dodgers have top-notch pen, too; Dodgers team total over might be better, but I can't get a line for it currently

cubs@Chisox has over-ump Bucknor going, making the over 9 a temptation; Contreras hasn't been so sharp lately; C.B. is one of the better over-umps, so fire away at this one if you like; I think I'll pass the way the series is going

kc@Mil has over-ump Schrieber going; total of 10 might be surpassed (hopefully by the Brewers alone!); too hard to predict what Gallardo will do here; potential for a great game is there, facing the lowly Royals (.716 OPS vs R); passing as I've got the Brew-Crew

For hou@Tex the system call is over the 11 at 63%.
Not a system total, as such.
Still might be a good play; if I have some extra money after the day's games I might take a shot at the over here.
Ump Campos looks like he'd HURT IT, if anything; I can't get an over/under record for him...just a K%...it's pretty high, again reducing walks.
Both Astros and Rangers prefer facing lefties, too (Astros OPS vs L .778 but vs R only .721) (Rangers OPS vs L .830 but vs R only .731).
Now that I analyze it further I think I might just take the money and run if I win today; Sampson isn't that bad and Tejeda can surprise at times; besides, I'm going to have Monday to prepare for...it has the potential to be very profitable, methinks.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

Mets -143 2.86/2
Brewers -175 3.5/2

other picks

tigers -115 1.07/0.93

totals

bost@Sd un7 -115 3.45/3
nyy@Sf un9 +113 1/1.13


That's going to be it for me. Hoping to sweep system picks, none of this 3-2 nonsense like the last couple of days. If I only hit one there (Hendrix grant me at least that!) then I'll really need to hit that Petco under. Would like it regardless. There's probably some value on the board that I'm missing (Indians?), but I think I'm playing the two strongest sides available, so I'm happy with my picks. Hopefully I can remain that way.

Monday looks to be very promising. Regular League schedules will resume, making things a little easier to handicap, and we've got some great series-opening matchups coming. 10 out of the 12 games I've 'capped at over 60%, meaning some lopsided contests. 6 of those might be 65% or higher. Some very lopsided matchups. I'm sure there will be at least a few lines worth playing amongst all that; surely we're not going to see -170s across the board. I'll be there to hop on those miscues when they happen.
I'll probably have tomorrow's numbers up sometime early into the night game.
With any luck I'll be able to post a 3rd straight plus.

See you in the aftermath.
GL

 

[Heineken Man]

That's some great stuff in those posts. Thanks for sharing and good luck today.

HM

 

[LIGHT-IT-UP]

Good luck today X!!

 

[Regular Joe]

Ex,

Another first game winner! Always nice to get that first one home. Congrats!

"Joe"

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, guys.

I finally woke up.

Nice (easy) Mets win got my mood started off right; just need the Brew-Crew to maybe cash another 1 or 2 and take that one to safety.

Go BREWERS!!!

:00hour

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

<explicit content removed>

:com:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

f'en a-hole Turnbow walks the leadoff hitter--batting 9th!-to start the 8th...flippin' clown!

:com:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

great...Brewers 3rd reliever of the 8th...still can't get that 2nd out.

:violin: :nooo: :cursin:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

great...now Peavy allows 5 singles in the 3rd.

Looks like I should have stayed in bed.

:violin: :dizzy:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

and Corey Hart

gives me a chance...

c'mon fools...deliver for me!!!

:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

:flush:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

PAPELBON!!!

Thank-ya now.

I'm entitled to at least a little celebration for that one!

:00hour

 

[Hindsite]

PAPELBON!!!

Thank-ya now.

I'm entitled to at least a little celebration for that one!

:00hour

I followed you on that one... Great call.. & U7is scarey!!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a lot, Hindsite!

2 out of 3 ain't bad, I guess...for my bigger plays.

Sure could use a quick three outs in the Yanks top of the 9th to sweep my totals.

:mj09:

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

dang garbage run in the top of the 9th cost me a unit; still went 1-0 on totals.

Well...I'm gauranteed a plus 0 (that's ZERO)...+0.43 for today.

Tigers are worth 2 units to me; would leave me up 2.43.

Looking forward to it.

:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

That does it.

I have begun to stew about that flippin' Brewers loss.
Was my call out to lunch or was it simply a case of a 26% probability happening? (my call for Brewers to LOSE)

-175 is a big freakin' line

I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that some MJ'ers think my posts are a joke because of the juice that I will lay.

Personally, I don't care so much as I'll play a big number if I sense there's value.

But...I think I have a project for tonight.

I'm going to go back over my 2007 record and see just what my record is for games at MORE THAN -150.
This seems like a good cut-off point, as -150 has a break-even mark of 60%.
I'm going to find out the Won-Loss and the plus/minus (absurdio...Golden Earring reference...never mind...).
I am not happy with my performance on big lines in June.
I have a feeling that May I did just fine, seeing as 70+ calls were 23-3. Not this month.

:SIB