houston (+4) 3 units
houston (ML) 1 unit to win 1.7. well, i said i'm going to look to bet against this overrated baltimore team pretty much every chance i get. and today looks like a good chance. every team the ravens has played this year has ranked 20th or worse in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. the one exception was pitt, who is 4th in the league. and baltimore beat pitt in OT, after knocking rudolph out of the game. the steelers held the ravens to 3.5 yards/carry. if you take jackson out of the equation, the ravens ran for 68 yards on 26 carries. granted, houston's run defense is not as good at pitt, as they rank 12th in the league. but they are still the 2nd best run defense the ravens have faced this year. if you believe in the DVOA rankings, houston is the best run defense they've faced.
on the other side of the ball, the texans also like to run the ball. they are 3rd in the league, averaging 5 yards/carry. and baltimore is not good at stopping the run. they just haven't had to do it much this year. per the DVOA rankings, baltimore's run defense is 28th in the league. the texans are going to keep this close with the ground game, and when it comes time to make a play through the air, i trust watson far more than i trust jackson.
nyj/wash over (38.5) 2 units.
den/minn over (40) 2 units. i've lost my damn mind. no idea how either of these go over the total. but they're going to.
miami (ML) 1 unit to win 2.1. i think you can get a better # now, but i put these in on friday. and this is nuts. but the bills shouldn't be laying 7 on the road to anyone and, don't look now, but the phins have won 2 straight. so, fuck it, i'll throw a few bucks on the dolphins. and i'll kick myself after buffalo wins by 30.
philly (+3.5) 2 units
philly (ML) 1 unit to win 1.6. again, better #s are available today. yeah, this is not the eagles team of 2 years ago. but, wow, this pats team is not all that great either. they've played an incredibly weak schedule. they shouldn't be laying over a fg on the road against an average nfl team.
chi/lar under (40) 3 units. maybe this one is too easy. but the rams can't score and the bears REALLY can't score. whoever gets to 17 will win this game.
monday
sd 1st half (+2.5) 2 units
sd (+4) 2 units
sd (ML) 1 unit to win 1.7. i just like betting against the chiefs. they haven't really fixed any of their defensive issues, so the opponent is always in the game. just need a big game from melvin gordan and for rivers to suck a little less than usual...
houston (ML) 1 unit to win 1.7. well, i said i'm going to look to bet against this overrated baltimore team pretty much every chance i get. and today looks like a good chance. every team the ravens has played this year has ranked 20th or worse in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. the one exception was pitt, who is 4th in the league. and baltimore beat pitt in OT, after knocking rudolph out of the game. the steelers held the ravens to 3.5 yards/carry. if you take jackson out of the equation, the ravens ran for 68 yards on 26 carries. granted, houston's run defense is not as good at pitt, as they rank 12th in the league. but they are still the 2nd best run defense the ravens have faced this year. if you believe in the DVOA rankings, houston is the best run defense they've faced.
on the other side of the ball, the texans also like to run the ball. they are 3rd in the league, averaging 5 yards/carry. and baltimore is not good at stopping the run. they just haven't had to do it much this year. per the DVOA rankings, baltimore's run defense is 28th in the league. the texans are going to keep this close with the ground game, and when it comes time to make a play through the air, i trust watson far more than i trust jackson.
nyj/wash over (38.5) 2 units.
den/minn over (40) 2 units. i've lost my damn mind. no idea how either of these go over the total. but they're going to.
miami (ML) 1 unit to win 2.1. i think you can get a better # now, but i put these in on friday. and this is nuts. but the bills shouldn't be laying 7 on the road to anyone and, don't look now, but the phins have won 2 straight. so, fuck it, i'll throw a few bucks on the dolphins. and i'll kick myself after buffalo wins by 30.
philly (+3.5) 2 units
philly (ML) 1 unit to win 1.6. again, better #s are available today. yeah, this is not the eagles team of 2 years ago. but, wow, this pats team is not all that great either. they've played an incredibly weak schedule. they shouldn't be laying over a fg on the road against an average nfl team.
chi/lar under (40) 3 units. maybe this one is too easy. but the rams can't score and the bears REALLY can't score. whoever gets to 17 will win this game.
monday
sd 1st half (+2.5) 2 units
sd (+4) 2 units
sd (ML) 1 unit to win 1.7. i just like betting against the chiefs. they haven't really fixed any of their defensive issues, so the opponent is always in the game. just need a big game from melvin gordan and for rivers to suck a little less than usual...
