sunday ncaa basketball play..........

[gman2]

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virginia (-1) over florida state (1:00pm)
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cavs keep popping up as a play. for better or for
worse, gonna ride them in what is a pretty good
spot. theyre a desperate team right now and i
would be very surprised if they dont play with
a sense of urgency here. a few things i feel
point to virginia in this spot:

~~ this has been a home-dominated series. home
team has won 7 of the L8 in this series~~

~~virginia has soundly defeated fsu the L3 yrs in
their meetings in charlottesville (85-72, 91-74,
and 89-71). i think L3 yrs is a fair sample size
simply because fsu hasnt had a ton of roster
turnover lately and these are the same guys
who have struggled here in the past~~

~~florida state has been unbelievably careless
with the ball on the road this year. in their 5
games away from home, theyve turned the
ball over 20+ times in 4 of the 5 gms. thats
simply not conducive to winning~~

~~neither team a great FT shooting squad, but
virginia gets there much more often (365 times
in 14 games compared to just 309 attempts for
florida state in 16 games. 56 more FTs in 2 less
games is notable here for virginia~~

ill take my chances that gillen has this team out to scrap and find a way to somehow win this game.

 

[emmitt]

gman2

gman2

any thoughts on mass -duq( duq -3.5)
cent mich-bg(bg-10.5)
sw miss st - ill st(ill st-.5) ???
thanks and bol emmitt

 

[freelancc]

line is down to PK at my outs... very curious line...

good luck gman... and thanks for the research on this game.

 

[hellah10]

gman....sooooo sorry i didnt get a hold of ya on Friday to get ya that local...I couldnt get a hold of him myself over the weekend. He went out of town, at least thats what he told me. Anyways...Im gonna be watching the Pats game with him...so I`ll get ya the info that ya need today...

again, sorry

 

[gman2]

emmitt:

sorry many, none of those 3 gms you listed stand out as possible plays from any side. that bg/cmu gm looks like its two teams going in opposite directions. cmu had some good outings early in this season but has been dogshit lately; bg is finally healthy and showing a pulse in the mac. still a lot of pts to lay, but cmu just not playing well enough to make em a live dog. im already looking at the gms for monday to try and find some that stand out. those are tough gms you listed. the only other possible lean i had was st.johns but i decided to pass. gl

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

FYI: from covers.com

Seminoles hate ACC road trips
Johnston Farrow

The Florida State Seminoles absolutely despise road trips.

Besides the long bus and plane trips during ACC play, the Seminoles deal with the pain of defeat. FSU has lost 17 straight conference road games. Most of the players don't remember the last time they won on the road: Mar. 3, 2001 at Clemson.

Florida State has lost three in a row after starting the season 10-0 and cracking the national Top 25 polls. However, the team is 0-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) over its past three, even as favorites in two of those games.

"Hopefully this is just a period that some teams go through and we'll snap out of it," FSU Head Coach Leonard Hamilton told the Florida Times-Union.


Unfortunately for the Seminoles, their next game is on the road. The Virginia Cavaliers provide the opposition today; they're just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over their last six outings, but also enjoy an 8-2 record at home.

The Seminoles got even more bad news this week when Diego Romero, the junior 6-foot-10 power forward from Argentina, decided to redshirt the rest of the season after he missed 15 games because of eligibility questions.

Romero had 14.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game last year at Lon Morris JUCO. His work in the high post would have brought added scoring to a team that ranks near the bottom of the ACC with 70.8 points a game.

 

[lowell]

any thoughts on the total.i am on vi but may wrap it with over for .5 unit thanks

 

[gman2]

i never like betting florida state over the total. theyre the only team in the acc that is willing to slow it down and not get in to run-n-gun games. virginia has a tendency to let their opponent dictate the tempo. when they play duke and maryland, theyll trade baskets all day. when they play slow down teams, they get sucked into that tempo. no real opinion on that total. fsu is a strange team sometimes

 

[fatback]

G, I did some research on the small home favorite I had asked you about the other day and it looks promising. This isn't exact because i went by vegasinsider lines but yesterday any away team that was a dog of 3.5 or less went 14 - 4

Unfortunately today that would include FSU but also SMS which is good for alot of people on here today

I was also going w/ Virginia but now I'm going to wait and see how it pans out

Good Luck

 

[gman2]

fatback:

i was thinking about that exact thing we talked about when i played virginia.

thanks for doing the initial research on that 'line situation'. lets keep an eye on it.

 

[lowell]

hate to have the over with va.teams are shooting 11 for 39 so far.woill need 3 overtimes to reach 142.5.what a ugly game.

 

[Unicorn]

Winner! OT was a good thing here. Didn't watch the game but everytime I checked it was tight either way. I needed that one, liked VA and like it more when I read your write up. good play GMan...

 

[lowell]

got lucky with a total .won 3 plays w/vir. good call.i think they will play well in next game and then they go to unc.great call

 

[gman2]

lowell:

nice hit with that over. thats the luxury of having an over in a game that is supposed to be fairly tight throughout. always the chance for overtime. nice job bud.

 

[lowell]

every home team has covered so far.why i played st johns and swm is beyond me.home teams or pass.i should know this by now.especially in the acc-other than duke on the road you would doing great sticking to home teams.