Sunday NFL Week 2 Official HALFTIME THREAD
- Thread starter UT-Longhorn
- Start date
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #1
Bet the underdog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
-- Comments: This angle went 8-10-3 last season. This was a huge disappointment because it seems the most logical -- yet it was the only losing angle of the Dalla Halftime Angles. Nevertheless, the angle has hit 56 percent winners over the period 1981-1998 and 2002 (I did not track 1999-2001 because I could not find the data).
-- Reasoning: This commonly occurs when the dog is blowing out the favorite, pulling off a "shocking" upset at halftime. Many bettors have a knee-jerk reaction and automatically go with the favorite in this spot to rebound big in the second half, which is a big mistake. It's also a contrarian play, since it generally goes against the public.
-- Update: I am certainly not going to dismiss this angle because of 21 trials and a losing season. So, I'll leave this up for at least another year.
HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #2
When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
-- Comments: This angle went 25-12-1 last season -- which is about 67 percent. I love this angle. It is clearly related to the outcome of the second half and is a PROVEN winner.
-- Reasoning: This trend is even stronger when the road team is leading. What happens is, the winning team gets conservative on offense and rushes more than passes. This eats up clock time. The winning team can also bring in 5-6 defensive backs, since it knows the opponent will be passing more often. However, the opponent, which is losing badly and getting embarrassed sometimes will revert to fundamentals (i.e. "let's get one score first, then worry about playing catch up"). This happens often in games where the starting QB has gone down with an injury in the first half. Furthermore, if the winning team has the ball with under five minutes to play, they will often drive down the field and kneel at the opponent's goal line, instead of crashing in for another score. This means that anywhere from 1-5 minutes out of 30 minutes is wiped out so far as scoring chances. Finally -- in blowout games, field goals become less likely, since the losing team needs touchdowns to get back in the game. Instead of kicking a 33-yard field goal the losing team will often go for it on 4th down and goal or 4th and long. Odds are, the team usually will not convert or score. That puts the other team deep in it's own territory to start the next drive.
-- Update: This angle went 45-23 for the test period (1997 and 1998). Again, I have to rely on secondary data which is why there are gaps in the years. So, the combined record of this angle in years tested is 70-34-1. Anyway you slice it, this angle is phenomenal. It's good for about two plays a week, on average, and hits about 66 percent. I defy anyone to show me a better angle than this one.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #3
When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, bet the UNDER in the second-half.
-- Comments: This is an extension of the previous angle, but is even more powerful. This angle went 10-2-1 last season. Enough said. A winner. Side Note: For detractors who suggest this should be combined with the previous angle, I disagree. When this situation arises, it is so powerful that you may want to consider a two-unit wager (combining Angles #2 and #3).
-- Reasoning: This is closely related to the previous Angle (#2) But, it's even stronger. When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, the UNDER occurs 60.5 percent in the second-half. OVERS occur only 34.9 percent of the time. It doesn't matter if the road team is favored or the dog. This happens for the reasons previously explained. But it's even stronger when the road team is winning big
-- Update: With last year's results, this angle is hitting 61 percent over a 20-year period.
Bet the underdog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
-- Comments: This angle went 8-10-3 last season. This was a huge disappointment because it seems the most logical -- yet it was the only losing angle of the Dalla Halftime Angles. Nevertheless, the angle has hit 56 percent winners over the period 1981-1998 and 2002 (I did not track 1999-2001 because I could not find the data).
-- Reasoning: This commonly occurs when the dog is blowing out the favorite, pulling off a "shocking" upset at halftime. Many bettors have a knee-jerk reaction and automatically go with the favorite in this spot to rebound big in the second half, which is a big mistake. It's also a contrarian play, since it generally goes against the public.
-- Update: I am certainly not going to dismiss this angle because of 21 trials and a losing season. So, I'll leave this up for at least another year.
HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #2
When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
-- Comments: This angle went 25-12-1 last season -- which is about 67 percent. I love this angle. It is clearly related to the outcome of the second half and is a PROVEN winner.
-- Reasoning: This trend is even stronger when the road team is leading. What happens is, the winning team gets conservative on offense and rushes more than passes. This eats up clock time. The winning team can also bring in 5-6 defensive backs, since it knows the opponent will be passing more often. However, the opponent, which is losing badly and getting embarrassed sometimes will revert to fundamentals (i.e. "let's get one score first, then worry about playing catch up"). This happens often in games where the starting QB has gone down with an injury in the first half. Furthermore, if the winning team has the ball with under five minutes to play, they will often drive down the field and kneel at the opponent's goal line, instead of crashing in for another score. This means that anywhere from 1-5 minutes out of 30 minutes is wiped out so far as scoring chances. Finally -- in blowout games, field goals become less likely, since the losing team needs touchdowns to get back in the game. Instead of kicking a 33-yard field goal the losing team will often go for it on 4th down and goal or 4th and long. Odds are, the team usually will not convert or score. That puts the other team deep in it's own territory to start the next drive.
-- Update: This angle went 45-23 for the test period (1997 and 1998). Again, I have to rely on secondary data which is why there are gaps in the years. So, the combined record of this angle in years tested is 70-34-1. Anyway you slice it, this angle is phenomenal. It's good for about two plays a week, on average, and hits about 66 percent. I defy anyone to show me a better angle than this one.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #3
When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, bet the UNDER in the second-half.
-- Comments: This is an extension of the previous angle, but is even more powerful. This angle went 10-2-1 last season. Enough said. A winner. Side Note: For detractors who suggest this should be combined with the previous angle, I disagree. When this situation arises, it is so powerful that you may want to consider a two-unit wager (combining Angles #2 and #3).
-- Reasoning: This is closely related to the previous Angle (#2) But, it's even stronger. When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, the UNDER occurs 60.5 percent in the second-half. OVERS occur only 34.9 percent of the time. It doesn't matter if the road team is favored or the dog. This happens for the reasons previously explained. But it's even stronger when the road team is winning big
-- Update: With last year's results, this angle is hitting 61 percent over a 20-year period.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #4
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: This angle went 14-3-1 this season. Incredibly, it did not lose until the 15th week of the season. I have said it before and I will say it again. There is something about a game score that is 10-7 at halftime that leads to more conservative play in the second-half. The results demonstrate the strong correlation to 2H UNDER plays.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #5
When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: I was most leery about these OVERS, but posted them anyway because the data shows a 20-year profit. This angle went just 2-8-1 in 2002 and might be mothballed to storage for next season. Possible mean-regression for the least-convincing of the angles.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #6
When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: There were only four plays this year and the angle went 3-1. We can draw no conclusions from this, especially since it's related to the previous angle (which lost). This rates as a hold, or wait-and-see for next season.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #7
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: This angle went a perfect 3-0 this season. Not many plays, but proven results over 20 years.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #8
When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: How about a perfect 5-0 for this angle? Again, not many plays, but a moneymaker. A keeper for next year.
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: This angle went 14-3-1 this season. Incredibly, it did not lose until the 15th week of the season. I have said it before and I will say it again. There is something about a game score that is 10-7 at halftime that leads to more conservative play in the second-half. The results demonstrate the strong correlation to 2H UNDER plays.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #5
When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: I was most leery about these OVERS, but posted them anyway because the data shows a 20-year profit. This angle went just 2-8-1 in 2002 and might be mothballed to storage for next season. Possible mean-regression for the least-convincing of the angles.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #6
When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: There were only four plays this year and the angle went 3-1. We can draw no conclusions from this, especially since it's related to the previous angle (which lost). This rates as a hold, or wait-and-see for next season.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #7
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: This angle went a perfect 3-0 this season. Not many plays, but proven results over 20 years.
HALFTIME BETTING ANGLE #8
When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
COMMENTS: How about a perfect 5-0 for this angle? Again, not many plays, but a moneymaker. A keeper for next year.
See angle 3 for jets game...
However, Nolan did feel that the books would catch up sooner or later to these trends. I have a feeling they have taken this into account for the Miami total, since it is only 17.5-18.5 as of now.
However, Nolan did feel that the books would catch up sooner or later to these trends. I have a feeling they have taken this into account for the Miami total, since it is only 17.5-18.5 as of now.
Re: TJ
Re: TJ
Not too sure on this after reading Nolan's angles. Too late for me. I guess there is really no difference between 17.5 & 18.5
Better 2nd games coming.
GL Highroller!!! :shrug:
Re: TJ
HighRoller said:
Not too sure on this after reading Nolan's angles. Too late for me. I guess there is really no difference between 17.5 & 18.5
Better 2nd games coming.
GL Highroller!!! :shrug:
Playing Colts +.5 2nd half big. . . they win this game by double digits. . . Titans may be without MnNair and I still like them to cover this if he plays. Colts will walk away with this one.
Also, Phins/Jets under 17.5. . . I'll be the sucker!
Also, Phins/Jets under 17.5. . . I'll be the sucker!
12:00 pm Half Time
191 Cleveland Browns -3 +100 19 +110 -165
192 Baltimore Ravens -120 -130 +145
12:00 pm Half Time
193 Tennessee Titans -? 21 -130
194 IndianapoIlis Colts +110
12:00 pm Half Time
199 Buffalo Bills +100 +155
200 Jacksonville Jaguars -3 21 -120 -175
191 Cleveland Browns -3 +100 19 +110 -165
192 Baltimore Ravens -120 -130 +145
12:00 pm Half Time
193 Tennessee Titans -? 21 -130
194 IndianapoIlis Colts +110
12:00 pm Half Time
199 Buffalo Bills +100 +155
200 Jacksonville Jaguars -3 21 -120 -175
Am I not seeing something?
Colts were -2.5 for the game...... Now with McNair out the Colts are getting +.5 :shrug:
GL
Colts were -2.5 for the game...... Now with McNair out the Colts are getting +.5 :shrug:
GL
browns look terrible!!! gonna get even a bigger dose of j. lewis in 2nd half. im gonna sit back because i have cleve +11- on 9 pt. teaser.
if i were gonna bet id go with balt.+3. only chance cleve. has if they open up the offense with a no huddle type approach.
6 quarters no TDS. gonna play like this ~ couch can qb:shrug:
gl if anyone plays this 1
if i were gonna bet id go with balt.+3. only chance cleve. has if they open up the offense with a no huddle type approach.
6 quarters no TDS. gonna play like this ~ couch can qb:shrug:
gl if anyone plays this 1
2nd half points for KC/Pitt is 24-- any thoughts?
Here is my card- 3 units each--
BIlls +3
Colts +.5
Ravens +3
still looking at the KC/Pitt game.......
Here is my card- 3 units each--
BIlls +3
Colts +.5
Ravens +3
still looking at the KC/Pitt game.......
