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Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Upstate NY
trying to keep my head above water in the nfl. don't really love the card today, so i'm treading lightly.

tennessee (+6.5) 1 unit. seems like everyone is on them, and that can't be good. after dropping 3 straight ATS, indy has been lucky to cover their last 2. ok, it's not 'luck' to overcome a large deficit on the road, but they had no business covering that game. anyway, tennessee has been just as hot lately, and they don't have the pressure of an undefeated season weighing them down.

tenn/indy under (46) 2 units. this matchup has gone under in 8 of their last 9 games, including 4 straight in indy.

miami (+4) 2 units. if it didn't say 'new england' on their jerseys, would this team be laying 4 points on the road? they haven't won a road game yet this year (no, i don't count beating tampa in london). and now they're laying 4 on the road in a divisional game. has anybody noticed just how bad tom brady has suddenly become?

SF (-1) 1 unit. SF is 3-0-2 ATS on the road this year. they are also 3-0 straight up and ATS in their division. statistically, both teams are mediocre. the only thing that jumps out at me is that SF has an advantage both running the ball and stopping the run.

SF/Seattle under (41) 1 unit. mediocre offense on both sides of the ball. plus, all 3 of SF's divisional games have gone under this year.

leaning towards dallas, but the giants have to win again at SOME point, don't they?
 
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