tampa (+7.5) 2 units. depending on what line you had in their game against washington, tampa is either 9-0 ATS their last 9 on the road, 8-0-1, or 8-1. they're on a great run on the road is what i'm telling you. tampa has won 2 of their last 3 trips to new orleans and 5 of their last 7. since the current division format was put in place in 2002, new orleans has not beaten tampa at home by more than 4.
no play on clev/pitt for me, but cleveland is 1-6 ATS since beating new england. and that only win was at miami, where EVERYBODY wins.
detroit (-3) 1 unit. hard to take the lions as a favorite, but they continue to play hard. take out a 3-game stretch in november, and the lions are 11-1 ATS this year. sure, that one loss was at minny, but only by a point. i'll take the team playing hard against the team that has had one distraction after another all year, and had a big win 5 days ago. they might not get too 'up' for a team they beat by 14 in september.
buffalo (+2) 1 unit. i really like the bills, but a few factors keep this at 1 unit. i don't think fitzpatrick practiced all week, so it's hard to say how effective he'll be if he starts. and once sanchez comes out of the game, the jets offense might suddenly resemble a capable nfl offense, even with 90-year old mark brunell. buffalo has covered 4 straight trips to new jersey, winning 3 of those straight up.
i was going to play miami, but this line jumping up to 6 will keep me off it. sure, miami has been great on the road and new england has nothing to play for, but the patriots appear to be in what bill simmons calls their "eff you mode", when they are just out to destroy everybody. you don't bet against new england when they are in 'eff you mode.' they are 7-3-1 ATS since dumping moss.
washington (+4) 1 unit. the skins are 2-0 ATS since benching mcnabb, winning at jacksonville and damn near pulling off a huge comeback against dallas. you know your career is coming to an end when rex grossman is an upgrade over you. can't you just feel another late-season collapse by the giants culminating in a loss at washington?
seattle (+3) 1 unit. the seahawks are 4-1 ATS at home against division opponents the last 2 years, including 2-0 this year. so while they're getting beat down at home by playoff teams (atlanta, new york, and kansas city, they beat their non-playoff opponents (san diego, carolina, san fran, and arizona).
seattle/st louis under (41.5) 2 units. as the only true 'win and you're in' matchup today, i expect both defenses to be ready to play today.
no play on clev/pitt for me, but cleveland is 1-6 ATS since beating new england. and that only win was at miami, where EVERYBODY wins.
detroit (-3) 1 unit. hard to take the lions as a favorite, but they continue to play hard. take out a 3-game stretch in november, and the lions are 11-1 ATS this year. sure, that one loss was at minny, but only by a point. i'll take the team playing hard against the team that has had one distraction after another all year, and had a big win 5 days ago. they might not get too 'up' for a team they beat by 14 in september.
buffalo (+2) 1 unit. i really like the bills, but a few factors keep this at 1 unit. i don't think fitzpatrick practiced all week, so it's hard to say how effective he'll be if he starts. and once sanchez comes out of the game, the jets offense might suddenly resemble a capable nfl offense, even with 90-year old mark brunell. buffalo has covered 4 straight trips to new jersey, winning 3 of those straight up.
i was going to play miami, but this line jumping up to 6 will keep me off it. sure, miami has been great on the road and new england has nothing to play for, but the patriots appear to be in what bill simmons calls their "eff you mode", when they are just out to destroy everybody. you don't bet against new england when they are in 'eff you mode.' they are 7-3-1 ATS since dumping moss.
washington (+4) 1 unit. the skins are 2-0 ATS since benching mcnabb, winning at jacksonville and damn near pulling off a huge comeback against dallas. you know your career is coming to an end when rex grossman is an upgrade over you. can't you just feel another late-season collapse by the giants culminating in a loss at washington?
seattle (+3) 1 unit. the seahawks are 4-1 ATS at home against division opponents the last 2 years, including 2-0 this year. so while they're getting beat down at home by playoff teams (atlanta, new york, and kansas city, they beat their non-playoff opponents (san diego, carolina, san fran, and arizona).
seattle/st louis under (41.5) 2 units. as the only true 'win and you're in' matchup today, i expect both defenses to be ready to play today.
