San Diego Padres/Miami Marlins Under 8? (-105)
Chicago Cubs -176
San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9? (-115)
Wash Nationals GM2 -180
Toronto Blue Jays -135
Tampa Bay Rays/St Louis Cardinals Under 8? (-105)
1 unit bet pays 29
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074 :spotting: :em71: :drinky: :mj06:
MLB parlays this season: 1-23, +5.0 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted Monday, August 14th...
here's some light reading for ya! (read, follow it, and lighten your wallet!)
Seattle Yankees 1:05 Albers (Tanaka - I don't see Albers doing well on road, especially this stadium. He's certainly not going deep. Tanaka been fine last month or so...Yanks -1.5...that was easy....next
Minne Toronto 1:07 Gibson (Biagini - Gibson had a studly line last start (1 ER in 7 innings), against CWS, but then, so do lotta aces (cough!), I don't expect another 1 ER start here...Biagini's last stint with the big club he was predictable as a coin flip, so he was sent down to the AAA Bisons and he has dutifully worked on his mechanics and figuring out how to work the slider in, etc to gain some consistency and it has worked - 1-1 in four starts with a 3.12 ERA and 14 strikeouts across bit over 17 innings. Gibbons and him are eager to test it out on the big level, and I think he'll do well (and Twins batters strike out a lot), as he has the experience now, and Toro ain't under a lot of pressure..
Kansas City Cleveland 1:10 Skoglund (Carrasco - Skoglund has been in the pen of late, after stint in minors, as his 3 starts with the big club were wildly all over the place, kinda like Carrasco's efforts this month. I'm guessing Carrasco be the better one here, but don't want to predict Royals get swept vs chief rival this season for Division and such, so I'm on the KC dog...tho Salvi is out, resting
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 1:10 Taillon (Mahle - Taillon off two poor efforts, I would doubt we get 3, but ya never know this time of year and esp vs a team he's struggled against of late, one of the best teams vs RH...Mahle, the top Reds pitching prospect, dominated AA, was very good in AAA with his fine fastball and decent off speed pitches, he could be good in debut (which are hard to predict anyway) but ya know he won't go deep and that Reds pen been pretty rotten of late - I'm taking Pitts and over
San Diego Miami 1:10 Richard (Straily - Clayton has decent chance to bounce back strong as he almost always does well vs Miami..Straily decent of late, and he's consistently better in day starts...so I'm on that under, and the Fish - as they 6-1 last seven, 12-3 last 15
Colorado Atlanta 1:35 Gray (Foltynewicz - Gray been his fine usual self but Folty has really sucked of late - a 15.43 ERA last 3 starts! He is working hard to iron out his mental and mechanical issues, but I don't see he snapping out of it all of once. So CO here, despite those rotten road bats they have - well, today might very well be the day they break out...but CO under is 6-2 last eight, 15-6 last 21...Kemp is out, resting
Baltimore Boston 1:35 Miley (Fister - both these mediocre pitchers been decent of late. I'm not buying it, I'm on the over.
Cubs Philadelphia 1:35 Lackey (Pivetta - Lackey should rebound here, but those young Phila bats are looking good of late!...Pivetta's sucked of late (22 ER last 13 or so innings!) and usually does suck vs strong teams like Cubs - who tore the cover off the ball last night with 17 runs, 14 hits, 6 HR!.and unlike lotta clubs, offensive outburst by Cubs usually carries over into the next day....takin Cubs and over (I was on PHila last few days)
Mets Washington 1:35 Milone (Fedde - Milone, 5 ER in 4.2 innings last start - heee's back! and no one knows why!...Fedde gives up runs like that too.. how about an over?...Murphy is out, resting
Detroit White Sox 2:10 Boyd (Giolito - Boyd, oh boy! here come some runs!...Giolito's command issues last start deserved 6 ER or so, but he lucked out with just 4 in 6 innings..over
Tampa Bay St. Louis 2:15 Archer (Lynn - Archer is even more Ace-like daytime starts and vs teams never seen him, STL TT under!...Lynn damn consistent (except last start) and these guys have gobs of unders between them of late, so I'm on that...HP ump Bucknor has lotta unders this season, but he's always consistently called a rather tight strikezone over the years, but starters like these are pretty much immune to umpire issues...but STL over is 15-3-1 last 19
Houston L.A. Angels 3:37 Morton (Nolasco - Morton's been decent of late, and Nolasco has a surprising amount of decent starts and team wins last 10, I dunno, Houston the better team and pitcher, I guess take the short number..
Texas Oakland 4:05 Griffin (Cotton - two decidedly unpredictable starters! But TX is on a roll, does well vs righties and AL West, Oak sucked of late so I am rolling with Texas, just a rolling stone from texas (that's a nice title for a song!)
San Fran Arizona 4:10 Stratton (Corbin - Stratton's given zero ER his last 2 starts (12.1 innings), Corbin has given up 1 in his last 23.1 innings and scoreless last 20, now at home he faces these awlful SF bats!)...Corbin last 15 starts - 3 ER or less in 14 of 'em! I still don't understand what got into him. But we are not here to understand, but to receive the gift...of a nice under bet coming in!...SF has beat Corbin twice this season, but that was before his current streak..
Milwaukee Dodgers 4:10 Nelson (Darvish - LAD RL, why think it over...(because it hurts! too much feeling here...) OK, Dodgers are also off a loss and Nelson slipping bit of late...
Mets Washington 8:08 Lugo (Roark - ESPN - Mets injurie woes and losses pile up, they 3-10 last 13, 8-19 last 27...WA RL
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Giants +178
Now we end the week and for Sunday, I really do not like anything. Sometimes, I am loaded up. Sometimes not. I will rarely take a fave of more than -150, so you know I am not going to be laying huge numbers as we enter September and rosters expand.
I do like the GIANTS this afternoon. Yes, tough to fade Corbin who has been an absolute beast his last 3 starts giving up 1 run in 23.3 innings. But I think we can see a bit of regression after back to back 8 inning starts. Arizona has had problems pushing across runs this series.
The Giants are bad. It hurts to grab them anytime for sure. But, DBacks struggling at the plate right now. Chris Stratton gave up 10 runs in 7 innings. One game was at the end of April, 5 runs in a third of an inning. The other, his first start after getting called up in July after being sent down after that April game. He has given up just 4 runs in his next 22.2 innings.
Play: Rockies -117
The Colorado Rockies are just 32-34 on the road this season, but I like them to improve on that record here in the rubber-match of a three game set at Atlanta.
The Braves have one of the worst home records in baseball at 29-35, and today they hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (10-9, 4.95 ERA) who has been lit up wherever he's pitched lately. The 25 year old has been tagged with a total of 20 runs in just 11 2/3 frames through his last three outings, and that includes surrendering eight in 3 1/3 innings at Coors Field on August 16.
Just like today, Foltynewicz pitched opposite Jon Gray (5-3, 4.54 ERA) in that contest. Gray gave up just five hits and struck out six while holding the Braves to a pair of runs in six innings of the 17-2 Rockies victory. Gray is 1-3 with a 5.72 ERA in eight road starts on the season, but he's been pretty sharp in recent outings compiling a solid 3.70 ERA through last four starts away from Coors.
The Rockies are 17-5 in the last 22 head-to-head meetings, and I think this looks like a more than fair price on the visitors who are fighting to hold on to their wild card spot.
Tampa Bay has come into fine form over the last week, winning against other contenders for the 2nd American League wild card spot. They look to continue their hot play against interleague opponent St. Louis on Sunday afternoon.
Chris Archer is on his way to his 5th successful season with the Rays, and is looking for his 10th win on the year against the St. Louis Cardinals. His strikeout rate is the best it has been in his career as well, sitting at 11.33 K/9 on the season, while his BB/9 is sitting at the lowest in his career at 2.66. He is 7th in the MLB with his FIP of 3.14 on the year, and he ranks 3rd in the MLB in strikeouts. Chris Archer is awesome, and his .214 BAA in August shows he is still going strong this season.
On the xFIP fade list for most of the year is Lance Lynn of the Cardinals, who has a 3.17 ERA against a 4.68 xFIP. This discrepancy is due to Lynn?s decreased strikeout rate, increased walk rate, and well below career average BABIP. Everything screams that Lynn will regress soon and regress hard in his coming starts. It has finally started to happen in August, and his 13.6% K rate and 11.7% walk rate is nothing to write home about, as well as Lynn?s 4.25 FIP. This line opened at -120 favoring Lynn and has swung the other way for good reason. I?ll follow the money and take Tampa Bay at -104 on the moneyline at BookMaker as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.
Free MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML
Jimmy Nelson should not be an underdog. Ever. Our MLB handicapper takes him no matter the opponent on Sunday afternoon.
Although his win-loss record doesn?t reflect it, Jimmy Nelson is having the best season of his career by far this year. His K/9 rate is a stellar 10.05 and his BB/9 rate is 2.35. Each are the best he?s ever put up by 2 or more in his career. Nelson?s FIP of 3.14 is 7th in the MLB this season, and his 4.3 WAR he?s put up so far is also 7th in the league. We are getting some value here with Nelson?s August ERA of 5.59 against an FIP of 2.99, so this line has more value than it normally would with Nelson?s recent results.
Another reason I like the Brewers here is Yu Darvish of the Dodgers, who finds himself as a -190 favorite at Bovada even though he has a losing record on the year. His 3.99 FIP is worse than Nelson?s as is his 15.9% HR/FB rate. He?s got a 4.53 FIP in the second half of the season, where he has allowed a .262 BAA versus a .213 BAA in the first half. With the odds where they land, all we are looking at is for Nelson to keep it close here, so I will take the Brewers on the run line at -125 at 5Dimes as one of my Sunday MLB selections.
San Francisco @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -4
Minnesota plays hard for no-nonsense coach Mike Zimmer, even in August. They've allowed 30 total points in two games, on a 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS preseason run. The Vikings were hit hard by injuries on the offensive line last year, so they've bulked up with depth on the O-line and the backfield for this season to have better balance. After losing both starting tackles for the year by Week 3 and seeing each of the interior offensive linemen go down at different times during the 2016 season, the Vikings' depth looks much improved. That depth was on display Friday in Seattle as neither starting lineman on the left side, tackle Riley Reiff and guard Alex Boone, suited up, which forced the Vikings to start Rashod Hill and Nick Easton. The makeshift first-team line did not give up a sack and sprung running back Dalvin Cook for 40 yards on just seven carries. A battle is still waging in camp over the center position. Easton and third-round pick Pat Elflein have each started one preseason game and have mixed in at practice, spending some time at guard. QB Sam Bradford was given more time to throw against Seattle last week, which allowed him to push the ball downfield for several explosive plays, including a 39-yard pass to speedy WR Stefon Diggs, while RB Cook averaged 5.7 yards per carry. And there are no concerns with a Minnesota defense that is loaded with talent and depth. They are home against the San Francisco squad pretty much rebuilding from scratch under a new coaching staff. The defense has allowed 50 points in two games and the QB rotation is poor with Brian Hoyer, rookie C.J. Beathard and Matt Barkley. They come off a 33-14 loss to Denver. The Niners' starters struggled in Kansas City in Week 1, then in Week 2 the offense had had three turnovers and didn't put any points on the board in its first four possessions. Making matters worse, Denver played without seven of its normal defensive starters -- and it won't get any easier this week.
Chicago Cubs -176
San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9? (-115)
Wash Nationals GM2 -180
Toronto Blue Jays -135
Tampa Bay Rays/St Louis Cardinals Under 8? (-105)
1 unit bet pays 29
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074 :spotting: :em71: :drinky: :mj06:
MLB parlays this season: 1-23, +5.0 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted Monday, August 14th...
here's some light reading for ya! (read, follow it, and lighten your wallet!)
Seattle Yankees 1:05 Albers (Tanaka - I don't see Albers doing well on road, especially this stadium. He's certainly not going deep. Tanaka been fine last month or so...Yanks -1.5...that was easy....next
Minne Toronto 1:07 Gibson (Biagini - Gibson had a studly line last start (1 ER in 7 innings), against CWS, but then, so do lotta aces (cough!), I don't expect another 1 ER start here...Biagini's last stint with the big club he was predictable as a coin flip, so he was sent down to the AAA Bisons and he has dutifully worked on his mechanics and figuring out how to work the slider in, etc to gain some consistency and it has worked - 1-1 in four starts with a 3.12 ERA and 14 strikeouts across bit over 17 innings. Gibbons and him are eager to test it out on the big level, and I think he'll do well (and Twins batters strike out a lot), as he has the experience now, and Toro ain't under a lot of pressure..
Kansas City Cleveland 1:10 Skoglund (Carrasco - Skoglund has been in the pen of late, after stint in minors, as his 3 starts with the big club were wildly all over the place, kinda like Carrasco's efforts this month. I'm guessing Carrasco be the better one here, but don't want to predict Royals get swept vs chief rival this season for Division and such, so I'm on the KC dog...tho Salvi is out, resting
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 1:10 Taillon (Mahle - Taillon off two poor efforts, I would doubt we get 3, but ya never know this time of year and esp vs a team he's struggled against of late, one of the best teams vs RH...Mahle, the top Reds pitching prospect, dominated AA, was very good in AAA with his fine fastball and decent off speed pitches, he could be good in debut (which are hard to predict anyway) but ya know he won't go deep and that Reds pen been pretty rotten of late - I'm taking Pitts and over
San Diego Miami 1:10 Richard (Straily - Clayton has decent chance to bounce back strong as he almost always does well vs Miami..Straily decent of late, and he's consistently better in day starts...so I'm on that under, and the Fish - as they 6-1 last seven, 12-3 last 15
Colorado Atlanta 1:35 Gray (Foltynewicz - Gray been his fine usual self but Folty has really sucked of late - a 15.43 ERA last 3 starts! He is working hard to iron out his mental and mechanical issues, but I don't see he snapping out of it all of once. So CO here, despite those rotten road bats they have - well, today might very well be the day they break out...but CO under is 6-2 last eight, 15-6 last 21...Kemp is out, resting
Baltimore Boston 1:35 Miley (Fister - both these mediocre pitchers been decent of late. I'm not buying it, I'm on the over.
Cubs Philadelphia 1:35 Lackey (Pivetta - Lackey should rebound here, but those young Phila bats are looking good of late!...Pivetta's sucked of late (22 ER last 13 or so innings!) and usually does suck vs strong teams like Cubs - who tore the cover off the ball last night with 17 runs, 14 hits, 6 HR!.and unlike lotta clubs, offensive outburst by Cubs usually carries over into the next day....takin Cubs and over (I was on PHila last few days)
Mets Washington 1:35 Milone (Fedde - Milone, 5 ER in 4.2 innings last start - heee's back! and no one knows why!...Fedde gives up runs like that too.. how about an over?...Murphy is out, resting
Detroit White Sox 2:10 Boyd (Giolito - Boyd, oh boy! here come some runs!...Giolito's command issues last start deserved 6 ER or so, but he lucked out with just 4 in 6 innings..over
Tampa Bay St. Louis 2:15 Archer (Lynn - Archer is even more Ace-like daytime starts and vs teams never seen him, STL TT under!...Lynn damn consistent (except last start) and these guys have gobs of unders between them of late, so I'm on that...HP ump Bucknor has lotta unders this season, but he's always consistently called a rather tight strikezone over the years, but starters like these are pretty much immune to umpire issues...but STL over is 15-3-1 last 19
Houston L.A. Angels 3:37 Morton (Nolasco - Morton's been decent of late, and Nolasco has a surprising amount of decent starts and team wins last 10, I dunno, Houston the better team and pitcher, I guess take the short number..
Texas Oakland 4:05 Griffin (Cotton - two decidedly unpredictable starters! But TX is on a roll, does well vs righties and AL West, Oak sucked of late so I am rolling with Texas, just a rolling stone from texas (that's a nice title for a song!)
San Fran Arizona 4:10 Stratton (Corbin - Stratton's given zero ER his last 2 starts (12.1 innings), Corbin has given up 1 in his last 23.1 innings and scoreless last 20, now at home he faces these awlful SF bats!)...Corbin last 15 starts - 3 ER or less in 14 of 'em! I still don't understand what got into him. But we are not here to understand, but to receive the gift...of a nice under bet coming in!...SF has beat Corbin twice this season, but that was before his current streak..
Milwaukee Dodgers 4:10 Nelson (Darvish - LAD RL, why think it over...(because it hurts! too much feeling here...) OK, Dodgers are also off a loss and Nelson slipping bit of late...
Mets Washington 8:08 Lugo (Roark - ESPN - Mets injurie woes and losses pile up, they 3-10 last 13, 8-19 last 27...WA RL
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Giants +178
Now we end the week and for Sunday, I really do not like anything. Sometimes, I am loaded up. Sometimes not. I will rarely take a fave of more than -150, so you know I am not going to be laying huge numbers as we enter September and rosters expand.
I do like the GIANTS this afternoon. Yes, tough to fade Corbin who has been an absolute beast his last 3 starts giving up 1 run in 23.3 innings. But I think we can see a bit of regression after back to back 8 inning starts. Arizona has had problems pushing across runs this series.
The Giants are bad. It hurts to grab them anytime for sure. But, DBacks struggling at the plate right now. Chris Stratton gave up 10 runs in 7 innings. One game was at the end of April, 5 runs in a third of an inning. The other, his first start after getting called up in July after being sent down after that April game. He has given up just 4 runs in his next 22.2 innings.
Play: Rockies -117
The Colorado Rockies are just 32-34 on the road this season, but I like them to improve on that record here in the rubber-match of a three game set at Atlanta.
The Braves have one of the worst home records in baseball at 29-35, and today they hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (10-9, 4.95 ERA) who has been lit up wherever he's pitched lately. The 25 year old has been tagged with a total of 20 runs in just 11 2/3 frames through his last three outings, and that includes surrendering eight in 3 1/3 innings at Coors Field on August 16.
Just like today, Foltynewicz pitched opposite Jon Gray (5-3, 4.54 ERA) in that contest. Gray gave up just five hits and struck out six while holding the Braves to a pair of runs in six innings of the 17-2 Rockies victory. Gray is 1-3 with a 5.72 ERA in eight road starts on the season, but he's been pretty sharp in recent outings compiling a solid 3.70 ERA through last four starts away from Coors.
The Rockies are 17-5 in the last 22 head-to-head meetings, and I think this looks like a more than fair price on the visitors who are fighting to hold on to their wild card spot.
Tampa Bay has come into fine form over the last week, winning against other contenders for the 2nd American League wild card spot. They look to continue their hot play against interleague opponent St. Louis on Sunday afternoon.
Chris Archer is on his way to his 5th successful season with the Rays, and is looking for his 10th win on the year against the St. Louis Cardinals. His strikeout rate is the best it has been in his career as well, sitting at 11.33 K/9 on the season, while his BB/9 is sitting at the lowest in his career at 2.66. He is 7th in the MLB with his FIP of 3.14 on the year, and he ranks 3rd in the MLB in strikeouts. Chris Archer is awesome, and his .214 BAA in August shows he is still going strong this season.
On the xFIP fade list for most of the year is Lance Lynn of the Cardinals, who has a 3.17 ERA against a 4.68 xFIP. This discrepancy is due to Lynn?s decreased strikeout rate, increased walk rate, and well below career average BABIP. Everything screams that Lynn will regress soon and regress hard in his coming starts. It has finally started to happen in August, and his 13.6% K rate and 11.7% walk rate is nothing to write home about, as well as Lynn?s 4.25 FIP. This line opened at -120 favoring Lynn and has swung the other way for good reason. I?ll follow the money and take Tampa Bay at -104 on the moneyline at BookMaker as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.
Free MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML
Jimmy Nelson should not be an underdog. Ever. Our MLB handicapper takes him no matter the opponent on Sunday afternoon.
Although his win-loss record doesn?t reflect it, Jimmy Nelson is having the best season of his career by far this year. His K/9 rate is a stellar 10.05 and his BB/9 rate is 2.35. Each are the best he?s ever put up by 2 or more in his career. Nelson?s FIP of 3.14 is 7th in the MLB this season, and his 4.3 WAR he?s put up so far is also 7th in the league. We are getting some value here with Nelson?s August ERA of 5.59 against an FIP of 2.99, so this line has more value than it normally would with Nelson?s recent results.
Another reason I like the Brewers here is Yu Darvish of the Dodgers, who finds himself as a -190 favorite at Bovada even though he has a losing record on the year. His 3.99 FIP is worse than Nelson?s as is his 15.9% HR/FB rate. He?s got a 4.53 FIP in the second half of the season, where he has allowed a .262 BAA versus a .213 BAA in the first half. With the odds where they land, all we are looking at is for Nelson to keep it close here, so I will take the Brewers on the run line at -125 at 5Dimes as one of my Sunday MLB selections.
San Francisco @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -4
Minnesota plays hard for no-nonsense coach Mike Zimmer, even in August. They've allowed 30 total points in two games, on a 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS preseason run. The Vikings were hit hard by injuries on the offensive line last year, so they've bulked up with depth on the O-line and the backfield for this season to have better balance. After losing both starting tackles for the year by Week 3 and seeing each of the interior offensive linemen go down at different times during the 2016 season, the Vikings' depth looks much improved. That depth was on display Friday in Seattle as neither starting lineman on the left side, tackle Riley Reiff and guard Alex Boone, suited up, which forced the Vikings to start Rashod Hill and Nick Easton. The makeshift first-team line did not give up a sack and sprung running back Dalvin Cook for 40 yards on just seven carries. A battle is still waging in camp over the center position. Easton and third-round pick Pat Elflein have each started one preseason game and have mixed in at practice, spending some time at guard. QB Sam Bradford was given more time to throw against Seattle last week, which allowed him to push the ball downfield for several explosive plays, including a 39-yard pass to speedy WR Stefon Diggs, while RB Cook averaged 5.7 yards per carry. And there are no concerns with a Minnesota defense that is loaded with talent and depth. They are home against the San Francisco squad pretty much rebuilding from scratch under a new coaching staff. The defense has allowed 50 points in two games and the QB rotation is poor with Brian Hoyer, rookie C.J. Beathard and Matt Barkley. They come off a 33-14 loss to Denver. The Niners' starters struggled in Kansas City in Week 1, then in Week 2 the offense had had three turnovers and didn't put any points on the board in its first four possessions. Making matters worse, Denver played without seven of its normal defensive starters -- and it won't get any easier this week.
