8:00 PM MLB [914] SFO GIANTS -255 ( A BRADLEY -R / M BUMGARNER -L )
1:05 PM MLB [915] TOTAL o10-101 (DET TIGERS vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( A SANCHEZ -R / R DICKEY -R )
1:35 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o9-101 (TB RAYS vrs BOS RED SOX) ( J ODORIZZI -R / D PRICE -L )
1:35 PM MLB [922] BAL ORIOLES -1.5 -110 ( T LINCECUM -R / C TILLMAN -R )
2:10 PM MLB [924] HOU ASTROS -220 ( S MANAEA -L / D KEUCHEL -L )
3:05 PM MLB [927] TOTAL o10.5 -110 (MIN TWINS vrs TEX RANGERS) ( T MILONE -L / A GRIFFIN -R )
3:00 PM SOC Final [26257] FRANCE -0.5 -102
1 unit bet pays 56 ....betdsi line ... might have a hedge opportunity this evening..
MLB parlays: 10-103, -25.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Reed has struggled since his first big league start. He has not been able to establish his power fastball for strikes or command his usually effective slider. He doesn?t believe it?s a mechanical issue, rather a mental one....Cody Reed could be your guy as he draws the Miami Marlins and their 24 percent whiff rate against lefties. The Cincinnati Reds rookie southpaw has opened his career with a hefty 9.9 K/9 but beware, the punchouts may come at the expense of ratios.
Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (8-2 past 10)
The 'under' has been the play lately for the Rockies, hitting in eight of their past 10 games, including seven straight matchups against a right-handed starter. The 'under' is also a frequent play when Tyler Chatwood gets the ball, cashing in each of his past four starts at Coors Field, and six of his past eight outings overall. Couple that with the fact the 'under' has hit in 12 of the past 17 games for Philadelphia against NL West foes, and 4-1 in their past five games overall, and Sunday's line of 12 looks a tad bit on the high side.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (12-3 past 15)
The D-Backs have had the 'over' cashing frequently over the past few weeks, including 5-1 in their past six outings on the road. The 'over' has hit in eight of their past nine games overall, and 15 of their past 18 games inside the National League West. As far as Bradley is concerned, the 'over' is 14-2-1 in his past 17 starts overall, 7-2 in his past nine on the road and a perfect 8-0 in his past eight assignments against divisional foes.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -180
Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman is 7-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season, and he is coming off the best start of the season (against the Dodgers) wherein he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings. Overall, Tillman is 11-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 2016, together with a 4.30 FIP and 4.37 SIERA.
However, Tillman boasts a 3.98 FIP and 3.82 xFIP at Camden Yards, together with a 24.3% K% (9.05 K/9) and 15.8% K-BB%. I also like the fact that the 28-year-old is a perfect 2-0 with a career 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP versus the Angels.
Tillman is also supported by a solid Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, including a 3.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home. Meanwhile, Los Angeles takes the field with a lineup that is producing just 4.5 runs in day games (12-14; -2.3 units) and 4.6 runs per game overall in 2016. Conversely, Baltimore's attack is averaging 5.7 runs in afternoon tilts and 5.3 run per game at home this season.
The Orioles have also hit a league-best 135 home runs, setting a franchise records for the most home runs before the All-Star break. Los Angeles starter Tim Lincecum is coming off a subpar outing wherein he allowed 10 hits and five runs over 4 2/3 innings of work against the Rays on July 5. Lincecum has failed to complete five innings in three of his four starts this season, and Camden Yards is a difficult venue for any pitcher against such a potent Baltimore lineup.
After undergoing hip surgery last September, the former Cy Young winner has allowed 29 hits in 18 innings in his comeback attempt in Anaheim. His fastball velocity is down (89 mph) and reports indicate that the 32-year-old is dealing with psychological issues based upon his downward career trajectory.
?I?m working with a (sport psychologist) right now, Tom Mitchell, who is out of the Bay Area," Lincecum said. "I thought it was necessary. I felt like, at times, the game and the lifestyle of this game - what I was going through on the field - became a little bit overwhelming. I needed some help dealing with that, coping with things and moving on from what I?ve gone through up until this point."
Overall, Lincecum is 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA, a 5.29 FIP and a 4.63 SIERA in 2016, together with an alarming 10% BB% and a poor 8.9% K-BB%. Let's also note that the Angels' bullpen owns a pedestrian 4.09 ERA this season, including a 4.80 ERA on the road, a 4.48 ERA in day games and a 4.99 ERA over its last seven games.
Technically speaking, Baltimore is 8-1 in its last nine games versus teams with a losing record, 8-2 in its last ten during game 3 of a series, 7-2 in its last 9 following a win and 37-14 in its last 51 home games, including 40-17 versus right-handed starters.
The Orioles are also 18-4 in Tillman's last 22 starts, 21-6 in his last 27 home starts versus .499 or worse opposition and 42-18 in Tillman's last 60 home starts overall. Take Baltimore and invest with confidence.
I've been talking about an under-the-radar rookie pitcher for a little bit named Zach Eflin and it was great to see him explode on the scene with a line of 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks against the Braves last night... So here's the quick low-down for those who have forgotten. He has a steady Fastball with a little life around 93-96 and uses a decent Slider to miss bats. He tosses in an occasional Changeup and hook for good measure, though it's mostly a Fastball/Slider combo platter. It's not the best repertoire, but he has good enough command of his heater to get by and sprinkle some Ks in between. Now look, I don't see Eflin as a Top 60 guy. He's not like Mengden or Norris or whatever. But, he can be valuable against NL Easy teams and he'll get a good share of those matchups in the second half
Betcha didn?t know: The Giants have won 22 of their past 27 games inside the National League West division, while going 4-1 in Madison Bumgarner's past five starts against division rivals. The Giants are also an impressive 11-3 in MadBum's past 14 starts overall, while San Francisco has consistently cashed against right-handed pitching, too. The Giants are 9-4 in their past 13 vs. RHP, and 37-18 in their past 55 home games against righties. The Giants have won eight of their past nine games against the Diamondbacks, although Arizona is 10-3 in their past 13 trips to AT&T, and the Giants are 0-4 in MadBum's past four home assignments against the Snakes.
Atlanta +151 over CHICAGO
The Braves beat up Chris Sale Friday night. They had a decent chance to win yesterday, eventually falling 5-4. The Braves have scored 15 runs in two games at U.S Cellular Field and also scored five times on the Mets before coming here. Now they face James Shields. We don?t have to go into details about Big Game. He?s been a disaster signing for the South Side and he?s going to cost somebody a job because of it. Shields brings his 7.23 ERA and 7.11 xERA into this start but he?s priced like he?s La Marr Hoyt (look it up). If the South Side and Shields? emerge victorious here, we?ll be the first to congratulate them but there is no chance of us refusing this tag on this stiff. Shields was recently a +221 dog against Rich Porcello and how he?s a -170 (or thereabouts) favorite over Mike Foltynewicz. Really?
Foltynewicz has made just eight starts this year and is 2-3 with an ERA of 4.29. Last year he went 4-6 with a 5.71 ERA in 87 innings for the Braves. He missed September to costochondritis or blood clots in his arm. On the field (last year) a heavy line-drive/fly-ball tilt mixed with an elevated hit rate and hr/f rate wreaked havoc on his ERA. His raw stuff did not translate to a plus K-rate, though his first-pitch strike gains offer hope. Foltynewicz xERA last season further suggested he needed more seasoning. Foltynewicz did, indeed, rejoin the Braves' rotation on June 30. Before going on the DL 5? weeks ago, he had compiled a 3.97 xERA with a nice BB/K split of 8/35 in 35 innings. The 2.2 BB?s/9 is noteworthy, as he had struggled to throw strikes in his previous MLB stints. Foltynewicz brings 96 MPH heat with late life. He has a tremendous bulldog mentality in that he just keeps coming at hitters and is not fazed by anything. He?s a pitcher to keep on your radar and is an absolute must play taking back a tag like this against James Shields.
Minnesota +150 over TEXAS
In terms of value, this is probably the best wager of the day. Texas dropped another one last night, 8-6. It was the eighth (!) straight game in which its starter could not make it out of the fifth inning. The Rangers have now dropped eight of their past 11 games and come into this final game before the break with a heavily taxed bullpen. At one point during the season recently and despite having the best record in the AL, Texas was an underdog in 23 of 25 straight games! That reveals exactly what the books thought about these imposters and they were right. The Rangers have gotten every bounce this season. They have strung together hits in timely fashion while the brutal pitching staff luckily weaved and danced their way through lineups. Well, the clock has struck midnight on the Rangers and they?ll limp into the All-Star break having had one day off over the past 39 days. They are extremely ripe to get beat again today.
The Twins are the exact opposite of the Rangers. Projected to finish with more wins than the Rangers, Minnesota was on a pace to lose 120 games (!) at the end of May. With 12 wins in their past 19 games and four wins in their last five, the Twinkies no longer have the worst record in baseball. They are now within striking distance of Tampa Bay, the Angels and the A?s. Loaded with offensive talent and playing well, the Twins are having fun and they?re playing with intensity. Minnesota continues to offer up tremendous value and that applies in this one too.
Tommy Milone brings an elite groundball rate of 60% into this start. Milone is not going to dazzle anyone or strike out many but he?s facing a tired Rangers? squad and he?s a streaky pitcher that can get hot for a few starts. Frankly, we don?t care who is starting for the Twins because this wager has nothing to do with backing today?s starter. It?s a bet on Minnesota to defeat Texas again.
As long as Cole Hamels isn?t pitching, every other starter on Texas is a huge risk. A.J. Griffin?s 3.06 ERA after nine starts is like all of the Rangers other starter?s numbers, a complete mirage. Griffin has a 36%/47% groundball/fly-ball split. His xERA is 4.42 or nearly 1?-runs higher than his actual ERA. Griffin was supposed to be in the Rangers rotation last season after he recovered from '14 TJ surgery. Then, just before going on a rehab stint, shoulder tendinitis struck, and he missed ANOTHER full season. That?s his story his entire career. He?s made of glass and now he?s priced like it?s 2012. We?ll stash him until he shakes off two years of rust and comes in as a pooch. As a favorite in this range and playing for a Rangers? team that can?t wait for today to end, this is instant fade material.
Cincinnati +146 over MIAMI
Tom Koehler has started 17 games for the Marlins and he?s 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA while averaging just over five innings per start. Koehler?s ERA over his past three starts is 7.07. His xERA is 4.94 and his WHIP is 1.54. One can comb through his profile every year since he entered the league and find nothing but a lot of ugly numbers. Even his batted ball profile of 40% grounders, 24% line-drives and 36% fly-balls is ugly. Tom Koehler is a back-of-the-rotation guy that is a big risk spotting prices like this.
Cody Reed brings his 0-3 record and 9.00 ERA after four starts into this one. Welcome to the bigs, kid. The long ball has done in him, as he?s surrendered eight of them in four starts. However, two of his starts came at home, one was at Wrigley with the wind blowing out and the other was at Houston?s Minute Maid Park. Marlins Ballpark is an extreme pitcher's park so Reed figures to benefit from that in terms of HR?s allowed. Aside from that, Reed has pitched well. He has 22 K?s in 20 frames, which is backed up by a 12% swing and miss rate. His groundball rate is outstanding at 53%. The Johnny Cueto deal last year would not have happened without Reed, as he was the main cog in that trade. He was a raw-tools bet for the Royals in the second round of 2013 and has all the talent in the world to succeed. Reed has an ideal pitching frame and features two pitches that get plus-plus grades in his mid-90s fastball and mid-to-high-80s slider. The fastball can touch 97, and shows solid late life while coming in with good deception because of a low, three-quarters arm slot. The slider is a true out pitch for him, which similarly showcases biting, sweeping tilt. Yeah, Reed is suffering from growing pains and yeah, he may bet lit up again. However, he?s not the first talented rookie to get whacked early in his career before something clicks. That something can click at any time but at the end of the day, Tom Koehler does not warrant being in this price range against a Reds? team that can score runs. We'll take our chances on talent over experience.
1:05 PM MLB [915] TOTAL o10-101 (DET TIGERS vrs TOR BLUE JAYS) ( A SANCHEZ -R / R DICKEY -R )
1:35 PM MLB [919] TOTAL o9-101 (TB RAYS vrs BOS RED SOX) ( J ODORIZZI -R / D PRICE -L )
1:35 PM MLB [922] BAL ORIOLES -1.5 -110 ( T LINCECUM -R / C TILLMAN -R )
2:10 PM MLB [924] HOU ASTROS -220 ( S MANAEA -L / D KEUCHEL -L )
3:05 PM MLB [927] TOTAL o10.5 -110 (MIN TWINS vrs TEX RANGERS) ( T MILONE -L / A GRIFFIN -R )
3:00 PM SOC Final [26257] FRANCE -0.5 -102
1 unit bet pays 56 ....betdsi line ... might have a hedge opportunity this evening..
MLB parlays: 10-103, -25.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Reed has struggled since his first big league start. He has not been able to establish his power fastball for strikes or command his usually effective slider. He doesn?t believe it?s a mechanical issue, rather a mental one....Cody Reed could be your guy as he draws the Miami Marlins and their 24 percent whiff rate against lefties. The Cincinnati Reds rookie southpaw has opened his career with a hefty 9.9 K/9 but beware, the punchouts may come at the expense of ratios.
Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (8-2 past 10)
The 'under' has been the play lately for the Rockies, hitting in eight of their past 10 games, including seven straight matchups against a right-handed starter. The 'under' is also a frequent play when Tyler Chatwood gets the ball, cashing in each of his past four starts at Coors Field, and six of his past eight outings overall. Couple that with the fact the 'under' has hit in 12 of the past 17 games for Philadelphia against NL West foes, and 4-1 in their past five games overall, and Sunday's line of 12 looks a tad bit on the high side.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (12-3 past 15)
The D-Backs have had the 'over' cashing frequently over the past few weeks, including 5-1 in their past six outings on the road. The 'over' has hit in eight of their past nine games overall, and 15 of their past 18 games inside the National League West. As far as Bradley is concerned, the 'over' is 14-2-1 in his past 17 starts overall, 7-2 in his past nine on the road and a perfect 8-0 in his past eight assignments against divisional foes.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -180
Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman is 7-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season, and he is coming off the best start of the season (against the Dodgers) wherein he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings. Overall, Tillman is 11-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 2016, together with a 4.30 FIP and 4.37 SIERA.
However, Tillman boasts a 3.98 FIP and 3.82 xFIP at Camden Yards, together with a 24.3% K% (9.05 K/9) and 15.8% K-BB%. I also like the fact that the 28-year-old is a perfect 2-0 with a career 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP versus the Angels.
Tillman is also supported by a solid Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, including a 3.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home. Meanwhile, Los Angeles takes the field with a lineup that is producing just 4.5 runs in day games (12-14; -2.3 units) and 4.6 runs per game overall in 2016. Conversely, Baltimore's attack is averaging 5.7 runs in afternoon tilts and 5.3 run per game at home this season.
The Orioles have also hit a league-best 135 home runs, setting a franchise records for the most home runs before the All-Star break. Los Angeles starter Tim Lincecum is coming off a subpar outing wherein he allowed 10 hits and five runs over 4 2/3 innings of work against the Rays on July 5. Lincecum has failed to complete five innings in three of his four starts this season, and Camden Yards is a difficult venue for any pitcher against such a potent Baltimore lineup.
After undergoing hip surgery last September, the former Cy Young winner has allowed 29 hits in 18 innings in his comeback attempt in Anaheim. His fastball velocity is down (89 mph) and reports indicate that the 32-year-old is dealing with psychological issues based upon his downward career trajectory.
?I?m working with a (sport psychologist) right now, Tom Mitchell, who is out of the Bay Area," Lincecum said. "I thought it was necessary. I felt like, at times, the game and the lifestyle of this game - what I was going through on the field - became a little bit overwhelming. I needed some help dealing with that, coping with things and moving on from what I?ve gone through up until this point."
Overall, Lincecum is 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA, a 5.29 FIP and a 4.63 SIERA in 2016, together with an alarming 10% BB% and a poor 8.9% K-BB%. Let's also note that the Angels' bullpen owns a pedestrian 4.09 ERA this season, including a 4.80 ERA on the road, a 4.48 ERA in day games and a 4.99 ERA over its last seven games.
Technically speaking, Baltimore is 8-1 in its last nine games versus teams with a losing record, 8-2 in its last ten during game 3 of a series, 7-2 in its last 9 following a win and 37-14 in its last 51 home games, including 40-17 versus right-handed starters.
The Orioles are also 18-4 in Tillman's last 22 starts, 21-6 in his last 27 home starts versus .499 or worse opposition and 42-18 in Tillman's last 60 home starts overall. Take Baltimore and invest with confidence.
I've been talking about an under-the-radar rookie pitcher for a little bit named Zach Eflin and it was great to see him explode on the scene with a line of 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks against the Braves last night... So here's the quick low-down for those who have forgotten. He has a steady Fastball with a little life around 93-96 and uses a decent Slider to miss bats. He tosses in an occasional Changeup and hook for good measure, though it's mostly a Fastball/Slider combo platter. It's not the best repertoire, but he has good enough command of his heater to get by and sprinkle some Ks in between. Now look, I don't see Eflin as a Top 60 guy. He's not like Mengden or Norris or whatever. But, he can be valuable against NL Easy teams and he'll get a good share of those matchups in the second half
Betcha didn?t know: The Giants have won 22 of their past 27 games inside the National League West division, while going 4-1 in Madison Bumgarner's past five starts against division rivals. The Giants are also an impressive 11-3 in MadBum's past 14 starts overall, while San Francisco has consistently cashed against right-handed pitching, too. The Giants are 9-4 in their past 13 vs. RHP, and 37-18 in their past 55 home games against righties. The Giants have won eight of their past nine games against the Diamondbacks, although Arizona is 10-3 in their past 13 trips to AT&T, and the Giants are 0-4 in MadBum's past four home assignments against the Snakes.
Atlanta +151 over CHICAGO
The Braves beat up Chris Sale Friday night. They had a decent chance to win yesterday, eventually falling 5-4. The Braves have scored 15 runs in two games at U.S Cellular Field and also scored five times on the Mets before coming here. Now they face James Shields. We don?t have to go into details about Big Game. He?s been a disaster signing for the South Side and he?s going to cost somebody a job because of it. Shields brings his 7.23 ERA and 7.11 xERA into this start but he?s priced like he?s La Marr Hoyt (look it up). If the South Side and Shields? emerge victorious here, we?ll be the first to congratulate them but there is no chance of us refusing this tag on this stiff. Shields was recently a +221 dog against Rich Porcello and how he?s a -170 (or thereabouts) favorite over Mike Foltynewicz. Really?
Foltynewicz has made just eight starts this year and is 2-3 with an ERA of 4.29. Last year he went 4-6 with a 5.71 ERA in 87 innings for the Braves. He missed September to costochondritis or blood clots in his arm. On the field (last year) a heavy line-drive/fly-ball tilt mixed with an elevated hit rate and hr/f rate wreaked havoc on his ERA. His raw stuff did not translate to a plus K-rate, though his first-pitch strike gains offer hope. Foltynewicz xERA last season further suggested he needed more seasoning. Foltynewicz did, indeed, rejoin the Braves' rotation on June 30. Before going on the DL 5? weeks ago, he had compiled a 3.97 xERA with a nice BB/K split of 8/35 in 35 innings. The 2.2 BB?s/9 is noteworthy, as he had struggled to throw strikes in his previous MLB stints. Foltynewicz brings 96 MPH heat with late life. He has a tremendous bulldog mentality in that he just keeps coming at hitters and is not fazed by anything. He?s a pitcher to keep on your radar and is an absolute must play taking back a tag like this against James Shields.
Minnesota +150 over TEXAS
In terms of value, this is probably the best wager of the day. Texas dropped another one last night, 8-6. It was the eighth (!) straight game in which its starter could not make it out of the fifth inning. The Rangers have now dropped eight of their past 11 games and come into this final game before the break with a heavily taxed bullpen. At one point during the season recently and despite having the best record in the AL, Texas was an underdog in 23 of 25 straight games! That reveals exactly what the books thought about these imposters and they were right. The Rangers have gotten every bounce this season. They have strung together hits in timely fashion while the brutal pitching staff luckily weaved and danced their way through lineups. Well, the clock has struck midnight on the Rangers and they?ll limp into the All-Star break having had one day off over the past 39 days. They are extremely ripe to get beat again today.
The Twins are the exact opposite of the Rangers. Projected to finish with more wins than the Rangers, Minnesota was on a pace to lose 120 games (!) at the end of May. With 12 wins in their past 19 games and four wins in their last five, the Twinkies no longer have the worst record in baseball. They are now within striking distance of Tampa Bay, the Angels and the A?s. Loaded with offensive talent and playing well, the Twins are having fun and they?re playing with intensity. Minnesota continues to offer up tremendous value and that applies in this one too.
Tommy Milone brings an elite groundball rate of 60% into this start. Milone is not going to dazzle anyone or strike out many but he?s facing a tired Rangers? squad and he?s a streaky pitcher that can get hot for a few starts. Frankly, we don?t care who is starting for the Twins because this wager has nothing to do with backing today?s starter. It?s a bet on Minnesota to defeat Texas again.
As long as Cole Hamels isn?t pitching, every other starter on Texas is a huge risk. A.J. Griffin?s 3.06 ERA after nine starts is like all of the Rangers other starter?s numbers, a complete mirage. Griffin has a 36%/47% groundball/fly-ball split. His xERA is 4.42 or nearly 1?-runs higher than his actual ERA. Griffin was supposed to be in the Rangers rotation last season after he recovered from '14 TJ surgery. Then, just before going on a rehab stint, shoulder tendinitis struck, and he missed ANOTHER full season. That?s his story his entire career. He?s made of glass and now he?s priced like it?s 2012. We?ll stash him until he shakes off two years of rust and comes in as a pooch. As a favorite in this range and playing for a Rangers? team that can?t wait for today to end, this is instant fade material.
Cincinnati +146 over MIAMI
Tom Koehler has started 17 games for the Marlins and he?s 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA while averaging just over five innings per start. Koehler?s ERA over his past three starts is 7.07. His xERA is 4.94 and his WHIP is 1.54. One can comb through his profile every year since he entered the league and find nothing but a lot of ugly numbers. Even his batted ball profile of 40% grounders, 24% line-drives and 36% fly-balls is ugly. Tom Koehler is a back-of-the-rotation guy that is a big risk spotting prices like this.
Cody Reed brings his 0-3 record and 9.00 ERA after four starts into this one. Welcome to the bigs, kid. The long ball has done in him, as he?s surrendered eight of them in four starts. However, two of his starts came at home, one was at Wrigley with the wind blowing out and the other was at Houston?s Minute Maid Park. Marlins Ballpark is an extreme pitcher's park so Reed figures to benefit from that in terms of HR?s allowed. Aside from that, Reed has pitched well. He has 22 K?s in 20 frames, which is backed up by a 12% swing and miss rate. His groundball rate is outstanding at 53%. The Johnny Cueto deal last year would not have happened without Reed, as he was the main cog in that trade. He was a raw-tools bet for the Royals in the second round of 2013 and has all the talent in the world to succeed. Reed has an ideal pitching frame and features two pitches that get plus-plus grades in his mid-90s fastball and mid-to-high-80s slider. The fastball can touch 97, and shows solid late life while coming in with good deception because of a low, three-quarters arm slot. The slider is a true out pitch for him, which similarly showcases biting, sweeping tilt. Yeah, Reed is suffering from growing pains and yeah, he may bet lit up again. However, he?s not the first talented rookie to get whacked early in his career before something clicks. That something can click at any time but at the end of the day, Tom Koehler does not warrant being in this price range against a Reds? team that can score runs. We'll take our chances on talent over experience.
