08:05 PM [911] LA DODGERS -145 ( S KAZMIR -L / M MAYERS -R )
01:05 PM [916] TOR BLUE JAYS -1.5 +115 ( W MILEY -L / J HAPP -L )
02:10 PM [924] HOU ASTROS -1.5 +100 ( T LINCECUM -R / M FIERS -R )
02:15 PM [926] KC ROYALS -1.5 +180 ( A GRIFFIN -R / E VOLQUEZ -R )
01:05 PM [930] NY YANKEES -142 ( J SAMARDZIJA -R / N EOVALDI -R )
1 unit bet pays 33 ....betdsi line ... yes, will hope to hedge this later tonight...
MLB parlays: 11-112, -16.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23th - last night!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
yes, Tim Lincecum is 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA in 10 career starts against the Astros - But that was many many years ago. His only start vs them in last several years (1 start a month ago) he got smacked around real bad....Mike Fiers is off an embarassing start (including well-publicised arguments/heated emotions in dugout- he'll atone for that), and is much better at home - team is 7-2 in his home starts. He is pitching for his spot in the rotation now, folks are clamoring for him to be replaced by Feldman.
"Every time out is a new time to show what I have and convince these guys that I can be one of the five starters," Fiers said. "I'm excited. I need to put down a quality start and just keep it rolling."
Astros are 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. a right-handed starter
Astros are 11-4 in their last 15 during game 3 of a series
Angels are 4-13 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter
Houston is off consecutive series sweeps of AL West teams, they go for third in a row today.
yes, the best arms in the Yanks pen are out for today: Betances (37 pitches in 2 days), Miller (42 2 days), Aroldis Chapman (53 in 2 days). That is maxed out for these guys, who might be used in Houston tomorrow. They've never been used 3 days/row this season (but 1 guy once), let alone with high pitch counts like this.
SF is very pleased to have that burden of a losing streak off their back, can exhale and relax now, take it easy, play nice and loose. That usually means more hits. Or maybe they'll be more focused on long flight back home?
Samardzija sports a bad Interleague record, but actually looks decent compared to his rotten overall pitching of late.
Samardzija vs available New York Yankees: .273 BA, .387 OBP, .442 SLG, .829 OPS, .367 wOBA
Eovaldi vs available San Francisco Giants: .309 BA, .356 OBP, .412 SLG, .768 OPS, .339 wOBA
Yes, Eovaldi started the season very well, then was sent to the bullpen for suckage, but he turned it around. He gave up just 1 ER in his first start back after the demotion. What he changed, mostly, is using his fastball a whole lot more than before. Working great now. I think he'll be good today.
So I like the Yanks here, but the bullpen worries me some - except those SF bats have not been all that frightening of late (which also kept me off the over)
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Giants are 6-1 in their last six Sunday games, and 17-5 in their last 22 game threes of a series.
Samardzija owns a 3-9 record with a 5.28 ERA in 21 Interleague appearances, including 15 starts. He has allowed 12 home runs in his last eight outings after yielding five homers in his first 11 games.
Eovaldi was 6-2 with a 3.71 ERA through his first 10 starts before going into a tailspin which he attributes to inconsistency with his location. From June 3 on, opponents have batted .344 with a 1.109 OPS against Eovaldi, including 12 homers. His 19 homers allowed have already surpassed his career high...9.20 ERA over his last six starts....Eovaldi looks back on track with a slightly different strategy. In his last start, Eovaldi used his fastball about 15 percent more often than he has this season - which resulted in 5.1 innings, 4 hits, 1 ER vs Balt...
Giants / Yankees Over 9
I believe these two teams are due for a big break out. Yesterday was absolutely embarrassing on how many runners each team left on base. These two pitchers are perfect hurlers to get these offenses back on track. Samardzija is prone to the long ball (that's not a good thing at Yankee Stadium) and has been terrible in Inter-League play. He has allowed 4+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and currently has an ERA just south of 7 against the Bronx Bombers. It's hard to believe but Eovaldi is even worse against the Giants, He is 1-4 with a career ERA of 13.30. Bullpens were also used a ton yesterday as well. We also have a solid weather pattern as it's going to be hot and less humid with the wind blowing out to RF. We should see a lot of fireworks here.
There's some risk, but Zack Godley is in the mix, especially for those chasing wins. Godley will take the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Great American Ballpark, which seems daunting, but the dirty little secret is that the venue is neutral for runs despite being a homer haven. Godley is a ground ball pitcher, so if he can keep the ball in the yard, he should hang around long enough to be in play for a win.
DBacks / Reds Over 9.5
On a hot, muggy, humid day at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park, I see double-digit runs being scored in this matchup.
These are the two worst bullpens in the National League right now and the starting pitching matchup isn't strong either with Zack Godley facing Brandon Finnegan.
Godley is getting the call because Shelby Miller imploded this season. Godley is 4-6 with a 3.62 ERA - at the minor league level this season. The Reds are swinging hot bats scoring 30 runs in their last five games
Finnegan has a 4.18 home ERA in nine starts at Great American Ball Park. The Diamondbacks have scored only three runs during the first two games of this series. They have way too many good hitters to stay in a scoring slump especially at such a favorable hitting site.
It's a plus for the over that Chris Owings is back from the DL while good-field, no-hit Nick Ahmed goes on the DL.
Los Angeles at Houston
Pick: Houston
Houston has now won ten straight games against the Angels following last night's convincing 7-2 victory before the home faithful. Houston is also 16-5 overall in this series, and I expect that domination to continue in light of the fact that the the Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 home games, 22-8 in their last 30 versus American League West foes, 11-4 during game 3 of a series, 53-23 versus right-handed starters and 36-16 in their last 52 overall.
Following a strong outing to start the 2016 campaign, Los Angeles right-hander Tim Lincecum has fallen on hard times. The two-time Cy Young Award winner toes the rubber with a 6.59 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and a 5.47 FIP (4.08 BB/9; 1.88 HR/9; 23.1% HR/FB). Since the beginning of the 2012 season, Lincecum has garnered a 4.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so he's clearly not the answer to the Angels' injury-depleted starting rotation.
The last time Lincecum faced the Astros (June 28), he allowed seven hits and five runs in just 4 1/3 innings. The declining hurler owns a triple digit ERA-, FIP- and xFIP- so there is little room for optimism moving forward. Lincecum also has a career-high hard contact rate in 2016 (39.0%), although to be fair he has also been hampered by an unsustainable .436 BABIP (small sample size, however). The veteran's lack of control (9.1% BB%) works well for a Houston squad that is 25-9 versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30.
Houston right-hander Mike Fiers has been very good at home this season, going 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He possesses a 20.8% strikeout rate at Minute Maid Park, together with a 5.6% walk rate and a 3.53 xFIP. Following a rough road outing in his last start, Fiers is determined to bounce back today. "Every time out is a new time to show what I have and convince these guys that I can be one of the five starters," Fiers said. "I'm excited. I need to put down a quality start and just keep it rolling."
Fiers is also backed by a very good Houston bullpen that owns a 3.11 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season, together with a 2.68 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home, a 2.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in day games and a 1.77 ERA over the last seven games. In contrast, the Angels' relief staff has a 4.74 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road and a 4.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in afternoon contests.
Finally, Houston is 4-0 in Fiers' last four home starts and 5-0 in his last five starts during game 3 of a series, whereas the Angels are 4-11 in their last 15 division games and have dropped four straight road games.
Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have split the first two games of the series with the rubber match to be contested on Sunday. The Phillies' best pitcher this season has been Vince Velasquez (8-2, 3.15 ERA) and he takes the mound. Velasquez won his last three starts before the break, despite dealing with some arm tiredness. His first start since the Phillies returned to play after the break came this past Tuesday when he pitched well (7 IP / 3 hits / 1 ER) but did not earn a decision this past Tuesday in Philadelphia's 2-1, 10-inning loss to Miami. The bottom line is that Velasquez has been outstanding since spending nearly three weeks on the DL, going 3-0 (team is 3-1) in four starts, allowing just five ERs over 24 innings for a 1.88 ERA.
Pittsburg?s starting rotation is somewhat of a mess. Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole are the mainstays but neither has been consistent. Jonathan Niese and Juan Nicasio now find themselves in the bullpen plus Jeff Locke will have his start skipped this coming week with off days Monday and Thursday. However, it?s not as if everything is going well with the ?new guys.? Rookie Tyler Glasnow left his second career start in the fourth inning with right shoulder discomfort in yesterday?s game. Chad Kuhl, another highly-touted prospect who made his big league debut last month (June 26), was pulled in the first inning of a Triple-A game Saturday for reasons that are unclear. Rookie Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.44 ERA) makes the start this afternoon.
The Pirates are 4-2 in his six starts, after winning his last three (he?s allowed just one ER over each of his last two, going six innings in each with a 9-2 KW ratio). Taillon took a line drive off the head early in his outing against Milwaukee on Tuesday but stayed in the game and worked six innings of one-run ball in a no-decision. "To be honest, I was waiting for it to hurt when I was down," said Jameson, who was placed in the league's concussion protocol but is OK to start in this one. Two good-looking young pitchers square off in this one and I?m backing the home team.
---------
Matz is in a good spot versus a squad with an average wOBA and a healthy strikeout rate versus southpaws. Also, the 25-year old lefty will be opposed by Jose Urena, so on paper, Matz should get run support.
Astros are 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. a right-handed starter
Volquez is 2-2 with an 11.50 ERA in four starts this season against American League West clubs...Volquez is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and a 1.761 WHIP over 15.1 innings of work against Texas.
Velasquez is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA (five earned runs in 24 innings) in four starts since he returned from the disabled list in June. His velocity jumped in Tuesday?s start against the Marlins, which he attributed to rest at the All-Star break.
Velasquez is intriguing since the Bucs have been slumping versus right-handers; in July, they sport the third-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA) and have an above-average strikeout rate. Taillon is coming off an outing where he was struck in the head with a line drive, but he has checked out fine. He's more than holding his own, though his 6.4 K/9 is low for DFS. The Phillies are weak offensively so Taillon is also in play, but the elevated strikeout potential for Velasquez gives him the nod.
The over is 26-12 in the Pirates last 38 home games
Toeing the rubber for the Twins will be Tommy Milone, who has gone 3-2 with a 4.781 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) this year, including 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts and 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA in seven games (six starts) on the road. Milone is now 22-19 with a 4.42 ERA in 66 games (62 starts) on the road in his career and 14-12 with a 4.15 ERA in 39 day games (38 day starts), while vs the Red Sox he is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA in four starts, including 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA in three starts here at Fenway
Boston is 13-3 in Porcello?s last 16 home starts, and hit lefties at a .308 clip at home and score 7.43 runs per nine off of southpaws here at Fenway
The Cubs have lost three of their last five games Lester has been on the mound, and Guerra is one of those pitchers on a bad team you can actually trust. I'll take a shot with the big plus money and the home team....Milwaukee Brewers +149
Griffin retired the first nine Angels he faced [in last start], but allowed five runners to cross the plate over his next two innings. The 28-year-old threw his sixth consecutive outing without a quality start [team is 3-3 in those starts].... He owns a 4.26 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP with 50 strikeouts in 57 innings pitched on the year.
Griffin: Endurance is the issue
?Every pitcher that comes back from not throwing for an extended period of time is going to have certain setbacks,? Rangers manager Jeff Banister said. ?We?ve encouraged him to continue to work on the endurance, which is going to allow the body to be stronger, to maintain the mechanical integrity throughout the delivery for extended periods of time.?
The club is hoping with more starts and more conditioning, Griffin will return to the pitcher he was before surgery, which included 30 starts of six or more innings combined in 2012 and ?13.
?We?re trying to get him strong enough where we can push that envelope a little further down in the pitch count, further along in the game.?
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Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8?
The National League Central division leading Chicago Cubs visit the Milwaukee Brewers in the finale of the three-game series. The Cubs and Jon Lester are money line favorites over Junior Guerra and the Brew Crew.
The Cubs (58-38, 28-22 road) have built the best record in the majors in part because of their above average play on the road. The Brewers were less hospitable Saturday, handing Chicago a 6-2 loss as the Cubs managed just six hits. The Brewers (41-54, 24-23 home) are already in wait until next season mode with most of the exciting action happening in the front office. Milwaukee?s brain trust has been working the phones in search of trade partners ahead of the July 31 deadline.
Lester (10-4, 2.89 ERA) turned in a solid performance in his last outing holding the Mets to one run and four hits over 7.2 innings to earn his first win since June 18. Lester is 2-2 with a 2.22 ERA in four starts against the Brewers posting a 2-0 mark. He?s 5-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 10 road starts this season.
Guerra (6-2, 3.06 ERA) is a 31-year old rookie who has been one of the bright spots in a dismal season. He?s notched quality starts in nine of his 14 outings, including four of his past five. Guerra beat the Cubs on May 19, racking up a career-high 11 strikeouts while allowing three runs over seven frames.
Chicago is 23-9 in the past 22 series meetings and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Milwaukee.
The Cubs are 8-0 to the UNDER in their past eight games but just 2-7 to the south side in their last nine road games.
The A's plan to recall Hahn, who was optioned to Triple-A Nashville on June 10. The righty had a rough start to June with Oakland, allowing 11 runs in 4 1/3 innings (two starts). He's gone 1-5 with a 3.63 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts.
It's been an odd season for Hahn. The questions entering 2016 revolved around whether he would be healthy enough to flash his undeniable talent, but instead the reverse has happened -- he stayed free of injuries, but isn't pitching all that well. His awful spring training landed him in Triple-A to start the year, and he's ranged from decent to awful in his two MLB stints so far. Even in Triple-A, he's walking a batter every other inning through a dozen starts.
But still, with Dillon Overton ineligible to return for several more days after his recent send-down, Hahn is a perfectly acceptable choice to make a spot start. It wasn't long ago that his talent allowed him to headline a trade for an All-Star catcher, and the only way to rediscover it is to keep running him out there. As it happens, there's space to run him out there in Oakland on Sunday, so it sounds like a plan. Maybe this is the time he sorts himself out and sticks around for good, and either way at least he's more interesting than Zach Neal.
Mike Mayers will be summoned by the Cardinals as they need a spot starter. He's a 24-year-old righty who has split his season between Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. He's not especially dominant but he keeps the ball in the yard. It's a bit curious that Mayers has pitched more than six innings only once all season, his initial outing.
Mayers had a 2.94 ERA over 52 innings in nine starts for Memphis after posting a 2.30 ERA over 54 2/3 innings for Class AA Springfield this season. He holds a 3.49 ERA over 351 innings throughout 66 games (64 starts) in his four-year minor league career.....Mayers expects 30-35 family members to attend his debut.
"Very rarely do you have a young guy come up in the perfect scenario," Matheny said. "You just get an opportunity. What do you make of it? Make the most of it. Don't look back. Just go about your business like he has been doing all season long. Because he's been doing something right."
----
Dodgers are 8-2 in Scott Kazmir's last 10 starts.
01:05 PM [916] TOR BLUE JAYS -1.5 +115 ( W MILEY -L / J HAPP -L )
02:10 PM [924] HOU ASTROS -1.5 +100 ( T LINCECUM -R / M FIERS -R )
02:15 PM [926] KC ROYALS -1.5 +180 ( A GRIFFIN -R / E VOLQUEZ -R )
01:05 PM [930] NY YANKEES -142 ( J SAMARDZIJA -R / N EOVALDI -R )
1 unit bet pays 33 ....betdsi line ... yes, will hope to hedge this later tonight...
MLB parlays: 11-112, -16.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23th - last night!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
yes, Tim Lincecum is 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA in 10 career starts against the Astros - But that was many many years ago. His only start vs them in last several years (1 start a month ago) he got smacked around real bad....Mike Fiers is off an embarassing start (including well-publicised arguments/heated emotions in dugout- he'll atone for that), and is much better at home - team is 7-2 in his home starts. He is pitching for his spot in the rotation now, folks are clamoring for him to be replaced by Feldman.
"Every time out is a new time to show what I have and convince these guys that I can be one of the five starters," Fiers said. "I'm excited. I need to put down a quality start and just keep it rolling."
Astros are 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. a right-handed starter
Astros are 11-4 in their last 15 during game 3 of a series
Angels are 4-13 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter
Houston is off consecutive series sweeps of AL West teams, they go for third in a row today.
yes, the best arms in the Yanks pen are out for today: Betances (37 pitches in 2 days), Miller (42 2 days), Aroldis Chapman (53 in 2 days). That is maxed out for these guys, who might be used in Houston tomorrow. They've never been used 3 days/row this season (but 1 guy once), let alone with high pitch counts like this.
SF is very pleased to have that burden of a losing streak off their back, can exhale and relax now, take it easy, play nice and loose. That usually means more hits. Or maybe they'll be more focused on long flight back home?
Samardzija sports a bad Interleague record, but actually looks decent compared to his rotten overall pitching of late.
Samardzija vs available New York Yankees: .273 BA, .387 OBP, .442 SLG, .829 OPS, .367 wOBA
Eovaldi vs available San Francisco Giants: .309 BA, .356 OBP, .412 SLG, .768 OPS, .339 wOBA
Yes, Eovaldi started the season very well, then was sent to the bullpen for suckage, but he turned it around. He gave up just 1 ER in his first start back after the demotion. What he changed, mostly, is using his fastball a whole lot more than before. Working great now. I think he'll be good today.
So I like the Yanks here, but the bullpen worries me some - except those SF bats have not been all that frightening of late (which also kept me off the over)
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Giants are 6-1 in their last six Sunday games, and 17-5 in their last 22 game threes of a series.
Samardzija owns a 3-9 record with a 5.28 ERA in 21 Interleague appearances, including 15 starts. He has allowed 12 home runs in his last eight outings after yielding five homers in his first 11 games.
Eovaldi was 6-2 with a 3.71 ERA through his first 10 starts before going into a tailspin which he attributes to inconsistency with his location. From June 3 on, opponents have batted .344 with a 1.109 OPS against Eovaldi, including 12 homers. His 19 homers allowed have already surpassed his career high...9.20 ERA over his last six starts....Eovaldi looks back on track with a slightly different strategy. In his last start, Eovaldi used his fastball about 15 percent more often than he has this season - which resulted in 5.1 innings, 4 hits, 1 ER vs Balt...
Giants / Yankees Over 9
I believe these two teams are due for a big break out. Yesterday was absolutely embarrassing on how many runners each team left on base. These two pitchers are perfect hurlers to get these offenses back on track. Samardzija is prone to the long ball (that's not a good thing at Yankee Stadium) and has been terrible in Inter-League play. He has allowed 4+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and currently has an ERA just south of 7 against the Bronx Bombers. It's hard to believe but Eovaldi is even worse against the Giants, He is 1-4 with a career ERA of 13.30. Bullpens were also used a ton yesterday as well. We also have a solid weather pattern as it's going to be hot and less humid with the wind blowing out to RF. We should see a lot of fireworks here.
There's some risk, but Zack Godley is in the mix, especially for those chasing wins. Godley will take the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Great American Ballpark, which seems daunting, but the dirty little secret is that the venue is neutral for runs despite being a homer haven. Godley is a ground ball pitcher, so if he can keep the ball in the yard, he should hang around long enough to be in play for a win.
DBacks / Reds Over 9.5
On a hot, muggy, humid day at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park, I see double-digit runs being scored in this matchup.
These are the two worst bullpens in the National League right now and the starting pitching matchup isn't strong either with Zack Godley facing Brandon Finnegan.
Godley is getting the call because Shelby Miller imploded this season. Godley is 4-6 with a 3.62 ERA - at the minor league level this season. The Reds are swinging hot bats scoring 30 runs in their last five games
Finnegan has a 4.18 home ERA in nine starts at Great American Ball Park. The Diamondbacks have scored only three runs during the first two games of this series. They have way too many good hitters to stay in a scoring slump especially at such a favorable hitting site.
It's a plus for the over that Chris Owings is back from the DL while good-field, no-hit Nick Ahmed goes on the DL.
Los Angeles at Houston
Pick: Houston
Houston has now won ten straight games against the Angels following last night's convincing 7-2 victory before the home faithful. Houston is also 16-5 overall in this series, and I expect that domination to continue in light of the fact that the the Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 home games, 22-8 in their last 30 versus American League West foes, 11-4 during game 3 of a series, 53-23 versus right-handed starters and 36-16 in their last 52 overall.
Following a strong outing to start the 2016 campaign, Los Angeles right-hander Tim Lincecum has fallen on hard times. The two-time Cy Young Award winner toes the rubber with a 6.59 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and a 5.47 FIP (4.08 BB/9; 1.88 HR/9; 23.1% HR/FB). Since the beginning of the 2012 season, Lincecum has garnered a 4.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so he's clearly not the answer to the Angels' injury-depleted starting rotation.
The last time Lincecum faced the Astros (June 28), he allowed seven hits and five runs in just 4 1/3 innings. The declining hurler owns a triple digit ERA-, FIP- and xFIP- so there is little room for optimism moving forward. Lincecum also has a career-high hard contact rate in 2016 (39.0%), although to be fair he has also been hampered by an unsustainable .436 BABIP (small sample size, however). The veteran's lack of control (9.1% BB%) works well for a Houston squad that is 25-9 versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30.
Houston right-hander Mike Fiers has been very good at home this season, going 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He possesses a 20.8% strikeout rate at Minute Maid Park, together with a 5.6% walk rate and a 3.53 xFIP. Following a rough road outing in his last start, Fiers is determined to bounce back today. "Every time out is a new time to show what I have and convince these guys that I can be one of the five starters," Fiers said. "I'm excited. I need to put down a quality start and just keep it rolling."
Fiers is also backed by a very good Houston bullpen that owns a 3.11 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season, together with a 2.68 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home, a 2.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in day games and a 1.77 ERA over the last seven games. In contrast, the Angels' relief staff has a 4.74 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road and a 4.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in afternoon contests.
Finally, Houston is 4-0 in Fiers' last four home starts and 5-0 in his last five starts during game 3 of a series, whereas the Angels are 4-11 in their last 15 division games and have dropped four straight road games.
Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have split the first two games of the series with the rubber match to be contested on Sunday. The Phillies' best pitcher this season has been Vince Velasquez (8-2, 3.15 ERA) and he takes the mound. Velasquez won his last three starts before the break, despite dealing with some arm tiredness. His first start since the Phillies returned to play after the break came this past Tuesday when he pitched well (7 IP / 3 hits / 1 ER) but did not earn a decision this past Tuesday in Philadelphia's 2-1, 10-inning loss to Miami. The bottom line is that Velasquez has been outstanding since spending nearly three weeks on the DL, going 3-0 (team is 3-1) in four starts, allowing just five ERs over 24 innings for a 1.88 ERA.
Pittsburg?s starting rotation is somewhat of a mess. Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole are the mainstays but neither has been consistent. Jonathan Niese and Juan Nicasio now find themselves in the bullpen plus Jeff Locke will have his start skipped this coming week with off days Monday and Thursday. However, it?s not as if everything is going well with the ?new guys.? Rookie Tyler Glasnow left his second career start in the fourth inning with right shoulder discomfort in yesterday?s game. Chad Kuhl, another highly-touted prospect who made his big league debut last month (June 26), was pulled in the first inning of a Triple-A game Saturday for reasons that are unclear. Rookie Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.44 ERA) makes the start this afternoon.
The Pirates are 4-2 in his six starts, after winning his last three (he?s allowed just one ER over each of his last two, going six innings in each with a 9-2 KW ratio). Taillon took a line drive off the head early in his outing against Milwaukee on Tuesday but stayed in the game and worked six innings of one-run ball in a no-decision. "To be honest, I was waiting for it to hurt when I was down," said Jameson, who was placed in the league's concussion protocol but is OK to start in this one. Two good-looking young pitchers square off in this one and I?m backing the home team.
---------
Matz is in a good spot versus a squad with an average wOBA and a healthy strikeout rate versus southpaws. Also, the 25-year old lefty will be opposed by Jose Urena, so on paper, Matz should get run support.
Astros are 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. a right-handed starter
Volquez is 2-2 with an 11.50 ERA in four starts this season against American League West clubs...Volquez is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and a 1.761 WHIP over 15.1 innings of work against Texas.
Velasquez is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA (five earned runs in 24 innings) in four starts since he returned from the disabled list in June. His velocity jumped in Tuesday?s start against the Marlins, which he attributed to rest at the All-Star break.
Velasquez is intriguing since the Bucs have been slumping versus right-handers; in July, they sport the third-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA) and have an above-average strikeout rate. Taillon is coming off an outing where he was struck in the head with a line drive, but he has checked out fine. He's more than holding his own, though his 6.4 K/9 is low for DFS. The Phillies are weak offensively so Taillon is also in play, but the elevated strikeout potential for Velasquez gives him the nod.
The over is 26-12 in the Pirates last 38 home games
Toeing the rubber for the Twins will be Tommy Milone, who has gone 3-2 with a 4.781 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) this year, including 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts and 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA in seven games (six starts) on the road. Milone is now 22-19 with a 4.42 ERA in 66 games (62 starts) on the road in his career and 14-12 with a 4.15 ERA in 39 day games (38 day starts), while vs the Red Sox he is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA in four starts, including 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA in three starts here at Fenway
Boston is 13-3 in Porcello?s last 16 home starts, and hit lefties at a .308 clip at home and score 7.43 runs per nine off of southpaws here at Fenway
The Cubs have lost three of their last five games Lester has been on the mound, and Guerra is one of those pitchers on a bad team you can actually trust. I'll take a shot with the big plus money and the home team....Milwaukee Brewers +149
Griffin retired the first nine Angels he faced [in last start], but allowed five runners to cross the plate over his next two innings. The 28-year-old threw his sixth consecutive outing without a quality start [team is 3-3 in those starts].... He owns a 4.26 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP with 50 strikeouts in 57 innings pitched on the year.
Griffin: Endurance is the issue
?Every pitcher that comes back from not throwing for an extended period of time is going to have certain setbacks,? Rangers manager Jeff Banister said. ?We?ve encouraged him to continue to work on the endurance, which is going to allow the body to be stronger, to maintain the mechanical integrity throughout the delivery for extended periods of time.?
The club is hoping with more starts and more conditioning, Griffin will return to the pitcher he was before surgery, which included 30 starts of six or more innings combined in 2012 and ?13.
?We?re trying to get him strong enough where we can push that envelope a little further down in the pitch count, further along in the game.?
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Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8?
The National League Central division leading Chicago Cubs visit the Milwaukee Brewers in the finale of the three-game series. The Cubs and Jon Lester are money line favorites over Junior Guerra and the Brew Crew.
The Cubs (58-38, 28-22 road) have built the best record in the majors in part because of their above average play on the road. The Brewers were less hospitable Saturday, handing Chicago a 6-2 loss as the Cubs managed just six hits. The Brewers (41-54, 24-23 home) are already in wait until next season mode with most of the exciting action happening in the front office. Milwaukee?s brain trust has been working the phones in search of trade partners ahead of the July 31 deadline.
Lester (10-4, 2.89 ERA) turned in a solid performance in his last outing holding the Mets to one run and four hits over 7.2 innings to earn his first win since June 18. Lester is 2-2 with a 2.22 ERA in four starts against the Brewers posting a 2-0 mark. He?s 5-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 10 road starts this season.
Guerra (6-2, 3.06 ERA) is a 31-year old rookie who has been one of the bright spots in a dismal season. He?s notched quality starts in nine of his 14 outings, including four of his past five. Guerra beat the Cubs on May 19, racking up a career-high 11 strikeouts while allowing three runs over seven frames.
Chicago is 23-9 in the past 22 series meetings and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Milwaukee.
The Cubs are 8-0 to the UNDER in their past eight games but just 2-7 to the south side in their last nine road games.
The A's plan to recall Hahn, who was optioned to Triple-A Nashville on June 10. The righty had a rough start to June with Oakland, allowing 11 runs in 4 1/3 innings (two starts). He's gone 1-5 with a 3.63 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts.
It's been an odd season for Hahn. The questions entering 2016 revolved around whether he would be healthy enough to flash his undeniable talent, but instead the reverse has happened -- he stayed free of injuries, but isn't pitching all that well. His awful spring training landed him in Triple-A to start the year, and he's ranged from decent to awful in his two MLB stints so far. Even in Triple-A, he's walking a batter every other inning through a dozen starts.
But still, with Dillon Overton ineligible to return for several more days after his recent send-down, Hahn is a perfectly acceptable choice to make a spot start. It wasn't long ago that his talent allowed him to headline a trade for an All-Star catcher, and the only way to rediscover it is to keep running him out there. As it happens, there's space to run him out there in Oakland on Sunday, so it sounds like a plan. Maybe this is the time he sorts himself out and sticks around for good, and either way at least he's more interesting than Zach Neal.
Mike Mayers will be summoned by the Cardinals as they need a spot starter. He's a 24-year-old righty who has split his season between Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. He's not especially dominant but he keeps the ball in the yard. It's a bit curious that Mayers has pitched more than six innings only once all season, his initial outing.
Mayers had a 2.94 ERA over 52 innings in nine starts for Memphis after posting a 2.30 ERA over 54 2/3 innings for Class AA Springfield this season. He holds a 3.49 ERA over 351 innings throughout 66 games (64 starts) in his four-year minor league career.....Mayers expects 30-35 family members to attend his debut.
"Very rarely do you have a young guy come up in the perfect scenario," Matheny said. "You just get an opportunity. What do you make of it? Make the most of it. Don't look back. Just go about your business like he has been doing all season long. Because he's been doing something right."
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Dodgers are 8-2 in Scott Kazmir's last 10 starts.
