04:40 PM MLB [1913] 1H ARI DBACKS +101 ( B SHIPLEY -R / L PERDOMO -R )
02:10 PM MLB [1924] TOTAL u4.5 -105 (1H OAK vrs 1H CHI WHITE SOX) (NEAL/QUINTANA)
01:00 PM SOC [27056] FK Austria Wien -112 = AUSTRIA - BUNDESLIGA
02:15 PM SOC [25225] Real Madrid -125 = SPAIN - LA LIGA
01:35 PM MLB [908] PIT PIRATES -138 ( J URENA -R / R VOGELSONG -R )
04:10 PM MLB [911] CHI CUBS -1.5 -115 ( J HAMMEL -R / J DE LA ROSA -L )
02:15 PM MLB [926] KC ROYALS -162 ( E SANTANA -R / D DUFFY -L )
1 unit bet pays 68 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-138, -29.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Boston/Detroit under 5 innings ... I wanted to take the over, bullpens last 14 days: Detroit ranked #28 and Boston #29!, but Harry's been excellent in the minors of late, does toss out the occasional fine game, which could happen today as Detroit bats in a slump, and Verlander has a poor outing to bounce back from.
Dodgers are 7-3 in Urias' last 10 starts, including 6-0 his last 6?...but Reds are 5-0 in Tony Disco's home starts this season...hmmm....
We all know Perez is a different animal on the road, I read "Perez is now 1-12 with a 5.56 ERA in his last 20 starts on the road and 8-7 with a 3.14 ERA in 20 games (19 starts) in daytime"...but been worse in day this season...Smyly's off his 5th QS in a row (mostly vs mediocre offenses) but I think he'll hold down TX enough here to leave the mound with a lead (TX mediocre vs lefties, esp on road), then TX vs TB bullpen can swing away and add to their MLB record # of comeback wins this season.
Storman could go toe-to-toe with Kluber, and Toro has been an under machine of late vs RH pitching, Cleve been getting lots unders at home of late.
Vogelsong's focus was off his last start, his SF homecoming, he promises better today..and is on the better team with better offense...while Urena doesn't miss many bats, has been awful vs any team that can hit well...perhaps the over too
Oak/CWS under 5 .. Neal's pinpoint control should be helped a lot by this ump on getaway day...we all know of Quint's under record this season...
Cubs just because...Hammel has pitched good one at Coors last season...
AZ 5 innings...I expect Ship to be fine here, AZ not playing well, but bats are swinging last few. SD had more errors than hits last night!... but who knows what will happen after the bullpens get involved.
over Mets/SF - total seems rather low for these starters formerly known as aces, as these teams getting lots overs of late...
Chacin was good in the pen, but sure not as a starter. He took Lincecum's place and ain't any better!...I do like how NYY's Green pitches better after each call up and swing thru the rotation. They say his slider he was working on most in that last stint in the minors, it's really come along now..just not sure how he will fare on the road, coming off that excellent 1st start coming back up (a perfect game into the fifth vs Toro). I guess I kinda want him to suck today so he'll be a terrific bet his next home start!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 15-5 in BOS last 20 road games.
Red Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -151
Detroit is worth a look here at home against the Red Sox on Sunday. The Tigers have a massive edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Justin Verlander against the Red Sox Henry Owens. Verlander is 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 14 home starts and has a red-hot 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts. Owens on the other hand will be making his first start since May and for good reason. Owens was awful in his 3 starts earlier this season, posting a 5.11 ERA an ugly 2.109 WHIP. Verlander isn't going to be intimidated by the strong Boston offense. In fact, he has a strong 2.90 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Red Sox.
The Under is 11-3 in Toronto last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter
Under is 5-2 Cleveland last seven games at home
Under is 15-5-2 in KC last 22 overall.
Athletics at White Sox
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. Oakland is a long way from home with a bad offense, #25 in runs scored, #28 in on-base percentage, #22 in slugging. It's their sixth consecutive road contest. The Athletics are 15-37 away against a left-handed starter and face a good one in Jose Quintana (2.85 ERA). Quintana has had some rough luck this season, going just 9-9 despite an outstanding 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. That's mostly because he has received just 3.08 runs of support per game, the second-worst run support. Chicago is no offensive dynamo, either, #26 in runs scored, #21 in on-base percentage and #28 in slugging. Chicago is 19-7-2 under the total versus the AL West.
You know who I haven't given enough love to? Forgotten Cubs pitcher Jason Hammel who had his third straight shutout start with a 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks against the Brew Crew yesterday, lowering his ERA to 2.75 for the season. Over his last seven starts he now has a 1.26 ERA, 8.37 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, and while his FIP is 3.09 and xFIP 3.66 in that time, he also has 23.2% soft contact and 27.8% hard, which means this isn't just a lucky streak. That's solid stuff all around, it's simply too bad that I don't like his stuff all too much to make me think he has Top 25 Upside. I may raise him a bit closer to #30 on Monday, though the best argument for his recent success is a schedule that includes the Brewers, Angels, Marlins, White Sox, and Braves. Not exactly the toughest of tough. He heads to Coors next followed by a visit to Dodgers Stadium, then San Fran...which doesn't help his case at all. Can't say I expect him to keep this up through that mini gauntlet.
Syndergaard picked up the win after giving up 4 runs (2 earned) on 7 hits and 2 walks with 8 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday vs. the D-backs. He?s tweaked his mechanics in recent weeks, and it's led to improved velocity and command.
Noah Syndergaard - 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Good to see the Ks return with authority, but Thor was Singled Out a bit to make his WHIP rise to 1.59 for the night. Just give one of those classic dominating outings Syndergaard, okay? It's been too long. Well, at least he hit a 2-run bomb off of Shipley, but we don't get credit for that
Going in the opposite direction as Kluber is Noah Syndergaard. It's not like he's stinking up the joint, but a 4.08 ERA and 1.57 WHIP for the past month is very un-Thor like. In fact, Syndergaard hasn't lasted more than six frames since July 3, spanning seven outings. Of course, this has coincided with the news Syndergaard is working with bone chips in his throwing elbow. It doesn't get any easier for the 23-year-old right-hander as he'll take the hill in AT&T Park against the grinding San Francisco Giants.
Toronto +144 over CLEVELAND
On the surface, Cory Kluber took a big step back last year from his 2014 breakout. However, he was the same pitcher both years. After hit, strand, and hr/f gods were firmly on his side in 2014, regression in those marks and a few more fly-balls sent his ERA above 3.00. This year, Kluber is the same ace he?s been for three years running. He has an elite BB/K split of 38/163 in 163 innings. His 3.15 ERA has the support of his 3.36 xERA. He throws strikes, he wins games and he comes in with an elite 14% swing and miss rate. Kluber has a lethal enough arsenal to not want to fade him but he?s also had some blowups. Kluber?s 41%/20%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his past 10 starts reveals his risk at Progressive Field. Let?s not forget that Kluber is 13-8 so it?s not like he always wins and never loses.
The real wager here, however, surrounds Marcus Stroman, who has quietly surpassed Aaron Sanchez as Toronto?s ace. For the first 3? months of the season, Stroman was not the dominant starter he was expected to be. However, you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant starter in the majors over the past five weeks or so. Over that stretch, Stroman?s 2.77 xERA is the best in the majors. Over his last 25 innings, Stroman has 32 K?s with just three walks issued. On top of those strikeouts is an elite 60% groundball rate. Stroman got off to a slow start but his elite profile has kicked into gear. His top-tier control/groundball%/strikeout rate combo make him one of the most difficult pitchers in baseball to score upon and now he?s priced like he?s R.A. Dickey. Win or lose, you will not make a better value bet today than the Blue Jays taking back a tag like this with Stroman on the mound.
Rangers vs. Rays
Play: Under 8?
The Texas Rangers continue their quest towards the American League Western Division title when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays in the rubber match of their three-game series.
The Rangers (73-50, 34-30 road) picked up outfielder Carlos Gomez who was placed on waivers by the Astros. Gomez will report to Triple-A Round Rock. The Rays (50-70, 28-35 home) have been riding the hot bat of Evan Longoria who has 14 RBIs in his last 10 contests. He belted his 28th home run in Saturday?s 8-2 win leaving just five big flies from his career high of 33.
Martin Perez (8-8, 4.09 ERA) goes to the mound for the Rangers who had their four-game winning streak snapped. Perez ended an eight-game winless streak last time out as he allowed two run over seven innings to beat Oakland.
Drew Smyly (5-11, 4.85) has turned around his season during his last five starts, permitting eight runs over 32 innings while recording three victories in that span. He gave up one run and one hit last time out against San Diego and has posted a 3.16 ERA since the All-Star break. Smyly is 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 career games (five starts) versus the Rangers.
The Rangers are 7-1-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 road games and 18-7-2 in their last 27 overall.
Cubs vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11?
I realize these are two potent lineups squaring off in the thin air of Denver. However, the pitching match-up is a key as to why I feel this game will stay under the big number. Jorge de la Rosa gets the start for the Rockies. He has compiled some sub-par numbers on the season but this is hiding the fact that he's enjoyed years of success pitching at Coors Field and also the fact that he's been in great form of late. Even though he allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start, de la Rosa only gave up 6 hits in 6 innings. Also, the Rockies southpaw had allowed 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his 11 prior starts! In fact, 7 of those 10 solid starts saw him allow 2 earned runs or less! Each of his last three starts have resulted in unders. Jason Hammel gets the start for the Cubs and the under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts! The last time Hammel pitched in a game that went over the total was July 1st. He's in top current form with only 7 earned runs allowed in his last 6 starts combined! These pitchers also have the edge of their opponents having not yet faced them this season. As a road fave of -125 to -150, the under is 20-10 in Cubs games the past three seasons. This season, the under is 23-15 in Cubs games against left-handed starters. 14 of the Cubs last 20 games against teams with a losing record have stayed under the total. 15 of the Rockies last 24 games against teams with a winning record have fell short of the total! A rare pitchers duel expected at Coors Field this afternoon.
Diamondbacks +112
Arizona is showing great value here as a small road dog against the Padres on Sunday. San Diego will send out Luis Perdomo, who has an ugly 5.71 ERA and 1.961 WHIP in his last 3 starts and awful 6.23 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 4 home starts. Arizona counters with Brandon Shipley, who has really pitched well on the road. Shipley owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 3 road starts. He's also in a prime spot to succeed, as the Padres come in hitting just .199 as a team over their last 7 games. Arizona on the other hand is averaging 6.3 runs/game and hitting .299 as a team over their last 7 games.
Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 road games after a contest with a combined score of 3 runs or less, while the Padres are 10-29 in their last 39 day games and 3-16 when playing on Sunday this season.
Miami +126 over PITTSBURGH
The Marlins go for the sweep here and there is nothing suggesting they won?t get it. Pittsburgh has been a bankroll killer as the chalk all season long and have zero appeal here as the favorite with Ryan Vogelsong going. On August 5, Vogelsong made his first start since a frightening eye injury after being hit in the face by a pitch two months prior. Vogelsong gave up just one run in six innings against the Braves and followed that up with another strong start against the Padres. Then the wheels inevitably flew off in his last start against the Giants. We say inevitably because this is a weak set of skills. Vogelsong drew one (!) swinging strike in his last start in 94 pitches. His swinging strike rate this season is one of MLB?s worst at 5%. He has an overall BB/K split of 15/28 in 39.1 innings. Pay no attention to Vogelsong?s overall surface ERA of 3.20 or to his 2.55 ERA since returning from injury. Vogelsong?s xERA of 5.72 assures us that regression is coming. He?s been greatly aided by an unsustainable 80% strand rate but sooner or later all those hard hit balls will land elsewhere besides right at someone. Vogelsong lived on the margins when he was ?good? and now at 38, he?s unlikely to return any profits.
The Pirates are favored here because of Jose Urena?s 6.80 ERA. This game is another example of how surface stats influence the line and how misleading they can be. That?s not to say Urena doesn?t bring risk because he does. He?s a starter turned reliever turned starter and has worked in just 20 games this season with only four of those coming as a starter. He has just 42 innings under his belt this season. However, Urena is a starter at heart. He?s just 23-years-old. He?s spent a lot of time in the minors this season already, all as a starter, so this role is his most comfortable. In the extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this season, Urena allowed a mere 41 hits in 48.1 innings and pitched to an ERA/xERA split of 3.17/3.44. xERA?s do not take park factors into consideration so Urena?s numbers are therefore even more impressive. Urena has filthy stuff but the risk comes in his inability or lack thereof to throw strikes consistently. In 750 career minor league innings, Urena has allowed just 49 jacks so he?s able to keep the ball in the park. He?s been pitching in the minors since he was 16 years-old. So, control is the key here. When it tanks (3.6 BB?s/9 in MLB), the MLB results fit but elements of intrigue are a 95+ mph heater and his good slider and changeup both show promise. The seeds of something here and now he needs time to sew the raw materials together at this level. If he?s throwing strikes, he has a great chance to succeed. If he?s not and gets blown up, the Marlins can still win this game.
Arizona +109 over SAN DIEGO
We have backed Luis Perdomo many times this season but he and the Padres have been a pooch every single time we stepped in. As the favorite, we?ll now have to switch gears and attack Perdomo. Perdomo remains a very intriguing speculation. His combination of being able to miss bats (10.8% swing and miss rate) and generating groundballs (62%) gives him a unique profile, especially when considering his mid-90s fastball. However, we are absolutely seeing signs of fatigue now. Perdomo?s swing and miss rate since July 22, covering five starts is down to 8%. His walks are up from 3 BB?s/9 before July 22 to 3.9 BB?s/9 afterward. Over his last 30 innings, Perdomo has walked 14 batters and hit two. He now has 40 walks in 100 frames overall and an unsightly 1.84 WHIP. Pitching with all that traffic on the bases all season long is taxing. As a Rule 5 selection, the Padres have been forced to roster him all season, which is not a problem for a team going nowhere. Thing is, he was supposed to be in the minors all year. Perdomo?s highest level of competition before this season was a mere 26 innings at A-ball. He?s raw as can be and he?s paying the price for it now. Fatigued and getting hit hard over his past eight games, Perdomo is about as unappealing a favorite as there is on today?s board.
If you?ve never watched Braden Shipley pitch before and decide to watch him today, you are very likely in for a treat. Shipley has made just five starts this season so we?re talking about a small sample size. He was also whacked in his last start against the light-hitting Mets so there?s a great chance he?ll be overlooked in the market. Shipley was a first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has been effective with three average to above average offerings. This is his first season above Double-A and he?s done a much better job of commanding the plate with his sinking 91-96 mph fastball. On the one hand, his strikeout rate has been disappointing. On the other hand, he works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. He has some work to do with pitch sequencing, but he?s making strides in all facets of pitching. In three of his five starts, Shipley made the Dodgers, Mets (the first time he faced them), and Brewers look silly in a slew of AB?s. The Padres have never seen him before and could be in for a similar fate.
Milwaukee +145
The Brewers are in full rebuilt mode. This is something veteran Matt Garza is well aware of. Best case scenario for the Brewers and Garza is a deal is made before the opening of the 2017 season where a team trades for Garza and gives Milwaukee a decent prospect or two. The Brewers want to get under Garza's $12.5 million contract and he doesn't fit into their long range plans.
Garza must pitch well for that to take place. That is starting to happen. Garza hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his past five starts posting a respectable 3.49 ERA during this span. He should pitch a solid six innings here against a normally tough Seattle lineup that is likely to be resting several regulars with an upcoming home series against the Yankees starting Monday.
The Brewers are facing rookie lefty Ariel Miranda, who is making just his third big league start and has a 5.79 ERA. It's my opinion Miranda isn't ready yet to be in a big league rotation. He's only in Seattle's rotation because James Paxton is out with an elbow injury.
The Brewers have won six of the last eight times they've gone against a southpaw starter.
Milwaukee has some underrated and intriguing offensive talent besides Ryan Braun and Chris Carter, who has hit the third-most homers in the National League. Jonathan Villar is batting .300 and has the second-most steals in the majors. Hernan Perez is batting .283 with double-digit homers and 23 steals. Centerfielder Keon Broxton has finally started showing something and rightfielder Domingo Santana just recently came off the DL bringing his 20-plus home run potential into the lineup.
Seattle is playing well and Milwaukee has dropped nine of its last 11 road games. So you really have to be careful picking spots with the Brewers especially away from Miller Park. But given the pitching matchup and price, I think a small Brewers investment is warranted.
Hottest pitcher: Jason Hammel, Cubs (13-5, 2.75 ERA)
Last season, Jake Arrieta put together a terrific second half on the way to a Cy Young award. Another Cubs? right-hander is on fire post All-Star break as Hammel has won six consecutive decisions, including three straight scoreless outings. However, Hammel has done most of his damage in this span at home, as he is making his first road start since July 22 when he takes the mound at Colorado. Hammel tries to improve on his away struggles, as the Cubs are 2-5 in his last seven road starts.
Coldest pitcher: Jose Urena, Marlins (1-4, 6.80 ERA)
The Miami right-hander has lost each of his last three starts, while allowing 15 hits and 13 earned runs in his past two appearances (10.1 innings). Urena gave up five first inning runs to the Reds in his previous outing, but actually didn?t allow a run in the next five innings of a 6-3 setback. The Marlins have compiled a 1-8 record in Urena?s past nine starts since last June, while yielding 10 hits and five earned runs in less than five innings of a 5-1 loss at Pittsburgh last May as the Marlins and Pirates wrap up their series on Sunday.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (11-3 last 14)
There has been no rhyme or reason to Oakland?s latest UNDER stretch, as the A?s tossed a shutout against the White Sox on Friday, but failed to register a run against Chris Sale on Saturday in a 6-2 loss. The A?s offense has scored four runs or less in six of the past seven games, while also dealing with several inflated totals in UNDERS at Texas. Zach Neal makes his fourth start of the season for Oakland in Sunday?s finale at Chicago, as the rookie allowed five earned runs in his previous outing against Seattle.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (6-1 last seven)
Arizona and San Diego played two exciting games to start its series at Petco Park as the two NL West rivals combined for 17 and 11 runs. In fact, 10 of the last 11 meetings between the Padres and D-backs have sailed OVER the total, including eight of the past 10 matchups with the teams combining for at least 10 runs. Braden Shipley has cashed the OVER in each of his last two starts for Arizona, while right-hander Luis Perdomo has finished OVER the total in three of four starts at Petco Park.
02:10 PM MLB [1924] TOTAL u4.5 -105 (1H OAK vrs 1H CHI WHITE SOX) (NEAL/QUINTANA)
01:00 PM SOC [27056] FK Austria Wien -112 = AUSTRIA - BUNDESLIGA
02:15 PM SOC [25225] Real Madrid -125 = SPAIN - LA LIGA
01:35 PM MLB [908] PIT PIRATES -138 ( J URENA -R / R VOGELSONG -R )
04:10 PM MLB [911] CHI CUBS -1.5 -115 ( J HAMMEL -R / J DE LA ROSA -L )
02:15 PM MLB [926] KC ROYALS -162 ( E SANTANA -R / D DUFFY -L )
1 unit bet pays 68 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-138, -29.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Boston/Detroit under 5 innings ... I wanted to take the over, bullpens last 14 days: Detroit ranked #28 and Boston #29!, but Harry's been excellent in the minors of late, does toss out the occasional fine game, which could happen today as Detroit bats in a slump, and Verlander has a poor outing to bounce back from.
Dodgers are 7-3 in Urias' last 10 starts, including 6-0 his last 6?...but Reds are 5-0 in Tony Disco's home starts this season...hmmm....
We all know Perez is a different animal on the road, I read "Perez is now 1-12 with a 5.56 ERA in his last 20 starts on the road and 8-7 with a 3.14 ERA in 20 games (19 starts) in daytime"...but been worse in day this season...Smyly's off his 5th QS in a row (mostly vs mediocre offenses) but I think he'll hold down TX enough here to leave the mound with a lead (TX mediocre vs lefties, esp on road), then TX vs TB bullpen can swing away and add to their MLB record # of comeback wins this season.
Storman could go toe-to-toe with Kluber, and Toro has been an under machine of late vs RH pitching, Cleve been getting lots unders at home of late.
Vogelsong's focus was off his last start, his SF homecoming, he promises better today..and is on the better team with better offense...while Urena doesn't miss many bats, has been awful vs any team that can hit well...perhaps the over too
Oak/CWS under 5 .. Neal's pinpoint control should be helped a lot by this ump on getaway day...we all know of Quint's under record this season...
Cubs just because...Hammel has pitched good one at Coors last season...
AZ 5 innings...I expect Ship to be fine here, AZ not playing well, but bats are swinging last few. SD had more errors than hits last night!... but who knows what will happen after the bullpens get involved.
over Mets/SF - total seems rather low for these starters formerly known as aces, as these teams getting lots overs of late...
Chacin was good in the pen, but sure not as a starter. He took Lincecum's place and ain't any better!...I do like how NYY's Green pitches better after each call up and swing thru the rotation. They say his slider he was working on most in that last stint in the minors, it's really come along now..just not sure how he will fare on the road, coming off that excellent 1st start coming back up (a perfect game into the fifth vs Toro). I guess I kinda want him to suck today so he'll be a terrific bet his next home start!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 15-5 in BOS last 20 road games.
Red Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -151
Detroit is worth a look here at home against the Red Sox on Sunday. The Tigers have a massive edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Justin Verlander against the Red Sox Henry Owens. Verlander is 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 14 home starts and has a red-hot 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts. Owens on the other hand will be making his first start since May and for good reason. Owens was awful in his 3 starts earlier this season, posting a 5.11 ERA an ugly 2.109 WHIP. Verlander isn't going to be intimidated by the strong Boston offense. In fact, he has a strong 2.90 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Red Sox.
The Under is 11-3 in Toronto last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter
Under is 5-2 Cleveland last seven games at home
Under is 15-5-2 in KC last 22 overall.
Athletics at White Sox
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. Oakland is a long way from home with a bad offense, #25 in runs scored, #28 in on-base percentage, #22 in slugging. It's their sixth consecutive road contest. The Athletics are 15-37 away against a left-handed starter and face a good one in Jose Quintana (2.85 ERA). Quintana has had some rough luck this season, going just 9-9 despite an outstanding 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. That's mostly because he has received just 3.08 runs of support per game, the second-worst run support. Chicago is no offensive dynamo, either, #26 in runs scored, #21 in on-base percentage and #28 in slugging. Chicago is 19-7-2 under the total versus the AL West.
You know who I haven't given enough love to? Forgotten Cubs pitcher Jason Hammel who had his third straight shutout start with a 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks against the Brew Crew yesterday, lowering his ERA to 2.75 for the season. Over his last seven starts he now has a 1.26 ERA, 8.37 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, and while his FIP is 3.09 and xFIP 3.66 in that time, he also has 23.2% soft contact and 27.8% hard, which means this isn't just a lucky streak. That's solid stuff all around, it's simply too bad that I don't like his stuff all too much to make me think he has Top 25 Upside. I may raise him a bit closer to #30 on Monday, though the best argument for his recent success is a schedule that includes the Brewers, Angels, Marlins, White Sox, and Braves. Not exactly the toughest of tough. He heads to Coors next followed by a visit to Dodgers Stadium, then San Fran...which doesn't help his case at all. Can't say I expect him to keep this up through that mini gauntlet.
Syndergaard picked up the win after giving up 4 runs (2 earned) on 7 hits and 2 walks with 8 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday vs. the D-backs. He?s tweaked his mechanics in recent weeks, and it's led to improved velocity and command.
Noah Syndergaard - 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Good to see the Ks return with authority, but Thor was Singled Out a bit to make his WHIP rise to 1.59 for the night. Just give one of those classic dominating outings Syndergaard, okay? It's been too long. Well, at least he hit a 2-run bomb off of Shipley, but we don't get credit for that
Going in the opposite direction as Kluber is Noah Syndergaard. It's not like he's stinking up the joint, but a 4.08 ERA and 1.57 WHIP for the past month is very un-Thor like. In fact, Syndergaard hasn't lasted more than six frames since July 3, spanning seven outings. Of course, this has coincided with the news Syndergaard is working with bone chips in his throwing elbow. It doesn't get any easier for the 23-year-old right-hander as he'll take the hill in AT&T Park against the grinding San Francisco Giants.
Toronto +144 over CLEVELAND
On the surface, Cory Kluber took a big step back last year from his 2014 breakout. However, he was the same pitcher both years. After hit, strand, and hr/f gods were firmly on his side in 2014, regression in those marks and a few more fly-balls sent his ERA above 3.00. This year, Kluber is the same ace he?s been for three years running. He has an elite BB/K split of 38/163 in 163 innings. His 3.15 ERA has the support of his 3.36 xERA. He throws strikes, he wins games and he comes in with an elite 14% swing and miss rate. Kluber has a lethal enough arsenal to not want to fade him but he?s also had some blowups. Kluber?s 41%/20%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his past 10 starts reveals his risk at Progressive Field. Let?s not forget that Kluber is 13-8 so it?s not like he always wins and never loses.
The real wager here, however, surrounds Marcus Stroman, who has quietly surpassed Aaron Sanchez as Toronto?s ace. For the first 3? months of the season, Stroman was not the dominant starter he was expected to be. However, you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant starter in the majors over the past five weeks or so. Over that stretch, Stroman?s 2.77 xERA is the best in the majors. Over his last 25 innings, Stroman has 32 K?s with just three walks issued. On top of those strikeouts is an elite 60% groundball rate. Stroman got off to a slow start but his elite profile has kicked into gear. His top-tier control/groundball%/strikeout rate combo make him one of the most difficult pitchers in baseball to score upon and now he?s priced like he?s R.A. Dickey. Win or lose, you will not make a better value bet today than the Blue Jays taking back a tag like this with Stroman on the mound.
Rangers vs. Rays
Play: Under 8?
The Texas Rangers continue their quest towards the American League Western Division title when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays in the rubber match of their three-game series.
The Rangers (73-50, 34-30 road) picked up outfielder Carlos Gomez who was placed on waivers by the Astros. Gomez will report to Triple-A Round Rock. The Rays (50-70, 28-35 home) have been riding the hot bat of Evan Longoria who has 14 RBIs in his last 10 contests. He belted his 28th home run in Saturday?s 8-2 win leaving just five big flies from his career high of 33.
Martin Perez (8-8, 4.09 ERA) goes to the mound for the Rangers who had their four-game winning streak snapped. Perez ended an eight-game winless streak last time out as he allowed two run over seven innings to beat Oakland.
Drew Smyly (5-11, 4.85) has turned around his season during his last five starts, permitting eight runs over 32 innings while recording three victories in that span. He gave up one run and one hit last time out against San Diego and has posted a 3.16 ERA since the All-Star break. Smyly is 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 career games (five starts) versus the Rangers.
The Rangers are 7-1-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 road games and 18-7-2 in their last 27 overall.
Cubs vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11?
I realize these are two potent lineups squaring off in the thin air of Denver. However, the pitching match-up is a key as to why I feel this game will stay under the big number. Jorge de la Rosa gets the start for the Rockies. He has compiled some sub-par numbers on the season but this is hiding the fact that he's enjoyed years of success pitching at Coors Field and also the fact that he's been in great form of late. Even though he allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start, de la Rosa only gave up 6 hits in 6 innings. Also, the Rockies southpaw had allowed 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his 11 prior starts! In fact, 7 of those 10 solid starts saw him allow 2 earned runs or less! Each of his last three starts have resulted in unders. Jason Hammel gets the start for the Cubs and the under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts! The last time Hammel pitched in a game that went over the total was July 1st. He's in top current form with only 7 earned runs allowed in his last 6 starts combined! These pitchers also have the edge of their opponents having not yet faced them this season. As a road fave of -125 to -150, the under is 20-10 in Cubs games the past three seasons. This season, the under is 23-15 in Cubs games against left-handed starters. 14 of the Cubs last 20 games against teams with a losing record have stayed under the total. 15 of the Rockies last 24 games against teams with a winning record have fell short of the total! A rare pitchers duel expected at Coors Field this afternoon.
Diamondbacks +112
Arizona is showing great value here as a small road dog against the Padres on Sunday. San Diego will send out Luis Perdomo, who has an ugly 5.71 ERA and 1.961 WHIP in his last 3 starts and awful 6.23 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 4 home starts. Arizona counters with Brandon Shipley, who has really pitched well on the road. Shipley owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 3 road starts. He's also in a prime spot to succeed, as the Padres come in hitting just .199 as a team over their last 7 games. Arizona on the other hand is averaging 6.3 runs/game and hitting .299 as a team over their last 7 games.
Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 road games after a contest with a combined score of 3 runs or less, while the Padres are 10-29 in their last 39 day games and 3-16 when playing on Sunday this season.
Miami +126 over PITTSBURGH
The Marlins go for the sweep here and there is nothing suggesting they won?t get it. Pittsburgh has been a bankroll killer as the chalk all season long and have zero appeal here as the favorite with Ryan Vogelsong going. On August 5, Vogelsong made his first start since a frightening eye injury after being hit in the face by a pitch two months prior. Vogelsong gave up just one run in six innings against the Braves and followed that up with another strong start against the Padres. Then the wheels inevitably flew off in his last start against the Giants. We say inevitably because this is a weak set of skills. Vogelsong drew one (!) swinging strike in his last start in 94 pitches. His swinging strike rate this season is one of MLB?s worst at 5%. He has an overall BB/K split of 15/28 in 39.1 innings. Pay no attention to Vogelsong?s overall surface ERA of 3.20 or to his 2.55 ERA since returning from injury. Vogelsong?s xERA of 5.72 assures us that regression is coming. He?s been greatly aided by an unsustainable 80% strand rate but sooner or later all those hard hit balls will land elsewhere besides right at someone. Vogelsong lived on the margins when he was ?good? and now at 38, he?s unlikely to return any profits.
The Pirates are favored here because of Jose Urena?s 6.80 ERA. This game is another example of how surface stats influence the line and how misleading they can be. That?s not to say Urena doesn?t bring risk because he does. He?s a starter turned reliever turned starter and has worked in just 20 games this season with only four of those coming as a starter. He has just 42 innings under his belt this season. However, Urena is a starter at heart. He?s just 23-years-old. He?s spent a lot of time in the minors this season already, all as a starter, so this role is his most comfortable. In the extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this season, Urena allowed a mere 41 hits in 48.1 innings and pitched to an ERA/xERA split of 3.17/3.44. xERA?s do not take park factors into consideration so Urena?s numbers are therefore even more impressive. Urena has filthy stuff but the risk comes in his inability or lack thereof to throw strikes consistently. In 750 career minor league innings, Urena has allowed just 49 jacks so he?s able to keep the ball in the park. He?s been pitching in the minors since he was 16 years-old. So, control is the key here. When it tanks (3.6 BB?s/9 in MLB), the MLB results fit but elements of intrigue are a 95+ mph heater and his good slider and changeup both show promise. The seeds of something here and now he needs time to sew the raw materials together at this level. If he?s throwing strikes, he has a great chance to succeed. If he?s not and gets blown up, the Marlins can still win this game.
Arizona +109 over SAN DIEGO
We have backed Luis Perdomo many times this season but he and the Padres have been a pooch every single time we stepped in. As the favorite, we?ll now have to switch gears and attack Perdomo. Perdomo remains a very intriguing speculation. His combination of being able to miss bats (10.8% swing and miss rate) and generating groundballs (62%) gives him a unique profile, especially when considering his mid-90s fastball. However, we are absolutely seeing signs of fatigue now. Perdomo?s swing and miss rate since July 22, covering five starts is down to 8%. His walks are up from 3 BB?s/9 before July 22 to 3.9 BB?s/9 afterward. Over his last 30 innings, Perdomo has walked 14 batters and hit two. He now has 40 walks in 100 frames overall and an unsightly 1.84 WHIP. Pitching with all that traffic on the bases all season long is taxing. As a Rule 5 selection, the Padres have been forced to roster him all season, which is not a problem for a team going nowhere. Thing is, he was supposed to be in the minors all year. Perdomo?s highest level of competition before this season was a mere 26 innings at A-ball. He?s raw as can be and he?s paying the price for it now. Fatigued and getting hit hard over his past eight games, Perdomo is about as unappealing a favorite as there is on today?s board.
If you?ve never watched Braden Shipley pitch before and decide to watch him today, you are very likely in for a treat. Shipley has made just five starts this season so we?re talking about a small sample size. He was also whacked in his last start against the light-hitting Mets so there?s a great chance he?ll be overlooked in the market. Shipley was a first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has been effective with three average to above average offerings. This is his first season above Double-A and he?s done a much better job of commanding the plate with his sinking 91-96 mph fastball. On the one hand, his strikeout rate has been disappointing. On the other hand, he works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. He has some work to do with pitch sequencing, but he?s making strides in all facets of pitching. In three of his five starts, Shipley made the Dodgers, Mets (the first time he faced them), and Brewers look silly in a slew of AB?s. The Padres have never seen him before and could be in for a similar fate.
Milwaukee +145
The Brewers are in full rebuilt mode. This is something veteran Matt Garza is well aware of. Best case scenario for the Brewers and Garza is a deal is made before the opening of the 2017 season where a team trades for Garza and gives Milwaukee a decent prospect or two. The Brewers want to get under Garza's $12.5 million contract and he doesn't fit into their long range plans.
Garza must pitch well for that to take place. That is starting to happen. Garza hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his past five starts posting a respectable 3.49 ERA during this span. He should pitch a solid six innings here against a normally tough Seattle lineup that is likely to be resting several regulars with an upcoming home series against the Yankees starting Monday.
The Brewers are facing rookie lefty Ariel Miranda, who is making just his third big league start and has a 5.79 ERA. It's my opinion Miranda isn't ready yet to be in a big league rotation. He's only in Seattle's rotation because James Paxton is out with an elbow injury.
The Brewers have won six of the last eight times they've gone against a southpaw starter.
Milwaukee has some underrated and intriguing offensive talent besides Ryan Braun and Chris Carter, who has hit the third-most homers in the National League. Jonathan Villar is batting .300 and has the second-most steals in the majors. Hernan Perez is batting .283 with double-digit homers and 23 steals. Centerfielder Keon Broxton has finally started showing something and rightfielder Domingo Santana just recently came off the DL bringing his 20-plus home run potential into the lineup.
Seattle is playing well and Milwaukee has dropped nine of its last 11 road games. So you really have to be careful picking spots with the Brewers especially away from Miller Park. But given the pitching matchup and price, I think a small Brewers investment is warranted.
Hottest pitcher: Jason Hammel, Cubs (13-5, 2.75 ERA)
Last season, Jake Arrieta put together a terrific second half on the way to a Cy Young award. Another Cubs? right-hander is on fire post All-Star break as Hammel has won six consecutive decisions, including three straight scoreless outings. However, Hammel has done most of his damage in this span at home, as he is making his first road start since July 22 when he takes the mound at Colorado. Hammel tries to improve on his away struggles, as the Cubs are 2-5 in his last seven road starts.
Coldest pitcher: Jose Urena, Marlins (1-4, 6.80 ERA)
The Miami right-hander has lost each of his last three starts, while allowing 15 hits and 13 earned runs in his past two appearances (10.1 innings). Urena gave up five first inning runs to the Reds in his previous outing, but actually didn?t allow a run in the next five innings of a 6-3 setback. The Marlins have compiled a 1-8 record in Urena?s past nine starts since last June, while yielding 10 hits and five earned runs in less than five innings of a 5-1 loss at Pittsburgh last May as the Marlins and Pirates wrap up their series on Sunday.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (11-3 last 14)
There has been no rhyme or reason to Oakland?s latest UNDER stretch, as the A?s tossed a shutout against the White Sox on Friday, but failed to register a run against Chris Sale on Saturday in a 6-2 loss. The A?s offense has scored four runs or less in six of the past seven games, while also dealing with several inflated totals in UNDERS at Texas. Zach Neal makes his fourth start of the season for Oakland in Sunday?s finale at Chicago, as the rookie allowed five earned runs in his previous outing against Seattle.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (6-1 last seven)
Arizona and San Diego played two exciting games to start its series at Petco Park as the two NL West rivals combined for 17 and 11 runs. In fact, 10 of the last 11 meetings between the Padres and D-backs have sailed OVER the total, including eight of the past 10 matchups with the teams combining for at least 10 runs. Braden Shipley has cashed the OVER in each of his last two starts for Arizona, while right-hander Luis Perdomo has finished OVER the total in three of four starts at Petco Park.
