01:00 PM NFL [456] TENN TITANS +125
01:00 PM NFL [464] KC CHIEFS -290
01:10 PM MLB [951] Los Angeles Dodgers -179 ( K Maeda - R /Urena)
01:05 PM MLB [966] New York Yankees -129 ( M Andriese/Cessa)
02:10 PM MLB [973] Cleveland Indians -1.5 -130 (Kluber/Berrios)
1 unit bet pays 13.81 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-154, -25.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Closing out the elite tier is Kenta Maeda, who has assuaged the early season fears regarding how effective he'll be down the stretch. The questions were warranted considering the increased workload and travel incurred by the Los Angeles Dodgers' rookie, not to mention whether the league would adjust to Maeda's deception. If there's a negative to Maeda's campaign, it's averaging only 5 2/3 innings per outing, which ranks 74th out of the 111 hurlers with at least 20 starts. On the other hand, the conservative number of frames is likely the reason why the 27-year old freshman is still effective with three weeks to go in the 26-week marathon. And considering the Dodgers' bullpen is the third-best in baseball despite accounting for more innings than any other, Maeda has been handled smartly.
There's a chance Brandon Finnegan's 2016 season will be over after Sunday, so let's take a moment to point out his strong finish. Since the midsummer hiatus, the 23-year-old lefty acquired by the Cincinnati Reds in last season's Johnny Cueto trade has spun a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, featuring 60 punchouts in 58 1/3 innings. Finnegan, who struggled with control last time out, no doubt wants to end his season on a high note and has the chance to do just that facing a Pittsburgh Pirates club that's vulnerable to dominant lefties. However, the Bucs are also very patient, so Finnegan will need to throw strikes, or he may go into the offseason on a downer. It's worth noting Ryan Vogelsong will be Finnegan's mound foe, putting the win in play.
Edwin Jackson - The veteran righty made a minor mechanical adjustment before his last start, and it paid major dividends as Jackson blanked the Red Sox over seven innings. He?s struggled against Colorado with an 11.34 ERA in 12 career appearances.
Over is 16-2 in last 18 games at Target Field...Over is 46-17-2 in Min Twins' last 65 home games....Minnesota lost 17 of last 20 games.
Has there ever been a pitcher sporting a 2.84 ERA and 1.05 WHIP subject to more concern than Jake Arrieta? To be fair, a drop in whiffs and a significant spike in walks is alarming, particularly the latter. But the Chicago Cubs' righty is inducing a hard-contact rate well below league average, resulting in a .229 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), well below league norm. This is even more impressive coming from an extreme ground ball artist, as they usually carry a BABIP above league average. The defending NL Cy Young award winner is in a sneaky good spot as the opposing Astros have had a rough time with a righty on the hill since the All-Star break. The spot is even better if Carlos Correa remains sidelined.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB?
It is almost shocking that the Yankees of all teams could put on such a surge and there only be crickets, not just from the Sports Mediaverse, but also the Betting Markets. Could it be that the folks that wrote them off simply don?t want to admit their mistake and alter their notions? Now a team that has gone 6-0 on this high-pressure home-stand, moving to within a single game of the Wild Card, is being sold short once again, and it will be #966 NY Yankees (1:05 Eastern) in play this afternoon, with as low as -123 out there in the early trading (make this good to -135).
This is not just a play-on situation, but the fact that the Rays have been abysmal on the road all season, a 24-42 that includes a 4-11 slide since August 1. Matt Andriese does not have the form to turn that, looking weary in his last two outings, when the Orioles and Red Sox tagged him for 14 runs over just nine innings. It shows what happens when a division opponent gets added looks vs. his mediocre stuff, and that is a particular problem today ? he was hit very hard from this mound back on August 13, four different Yankees hitting HRs in an easy NYY win.
Luis Cessa has worked to a 2-0/3.04 in four outings since being moved into the starting rotation, only walking five batters across those 23.1 frames. With Dellin Betances fresh from a Saturday day off the later stages are in good hands as well, with the oddsmakers selling this setting short of where it should be.
In the Sights, NFL?
I will get in play today with what will be a recurring theme in the early part of the season ? with Tyler Eifert and Marvin jones missing on the field, and Hue Jackson from the sidelines, the magical season put together by Andy Dalton in 2015 brings the strong prospect of regression, and the path for Week #1 is
#459 Cincinnati Team Total Under (1:00 Eastern), with 21.5 available in the Sunday trading (make it good to -130).
Here is the arc of the Dalton?s career, measured by Passer Rating ?
2011 80.4
2012 87.4
2013 88.8
2014 83.5
2015 106.2
That puts perspective on how much of a leap 2015 was, and while Dalton indeed made strides, much of that was about the supporting cast around him, including 117 catches for 1,431 yards and 17 TDs from Jones/Eifert (13 of those TDs were from Eifert, who will be missed badly in the red zone until he returns). In terms of replacing Jones note that Dalton did not complete a pass to Brandon LaFell in the pre-season, and is still learning the ways of rookie WR Tyler Boyd, while TE?s Tyler Kroft and C. J. Uzomah are each in their second season, and unproven. Lacking chemistry will be a problem on the road against one of the NFL?s best defenses, especially with Darrelle Reavis being one of the few CBs that can go one-on-one with A. J. Green, which frees up those stunts and blitzes that are a big part of the Todd Bowles Schemes. And while opening without Sheldon Richardson would be a major blow for most teams, the Jets have plenty of depth up front.
I don?t expect the Bengals to be efficient on offense today, nor bring much of a pace as the new faces get worked in.
Minnesota @ TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE +121 over Minnesota
The Vikings are market's ?sexy? choice to come out of the NFC this season. They are building off a division title a year ago and will open a new state of the art stadium next week when they host Green Bay. Rarely is Week 1 a bad spot for anyone, as teams are excited to play for keeps but if there ever was a Week 1, look-ahead spot, this would be it.
So let?s start with the Vikings running the table in the pre-season. That?s nice but it means jack because preseason football means jack. But the Vikings won the NFC North last year with an 11-5 record you say. We say, ?That?s nice too but the Vikes beat two teams with a winning record and one of those was the Chiefs in the midst of a five-game losing streak. Everything about the Vikes is now on hold because Teddy Bridgewater went down with a season ending injury. Reports say Viking players were openly weeping on the sidelines, as they carted their leader off the field. When the dust settled, somehow the Vikes had given up a kings? ransom to get former number one pick Sam Bradford from the Eagles. However, the market isn?t too shook up by that, as Minnesota?s success revolves around their defense and running game. Hell, if Christian Ponder can win games, so too can Sam Bradford, no?
Time will tell but the emotional letdown of losing its starting QB cannot be overstated here nor can the excitement of opening their new stadium against the Packers next week. Whether it?s positive or negative, the Vikes have been one of the most talked about clubs over the past few weeks while the Titans might be the league?s biggest afterthought. That provides us with this outstanding opportunity.
The Titans are on the right track for sure so don?t sleep on them. Tennessee has improved overall, as they had an excellent draft on both sides of the ball and look to be net winners in Free Agency as well. It appears that the Titans are going to give Mike Mularkey a real shot as Head Coach. Mularkey has been saying all summer that he wants to play smash-mouth football on offense.
The Titans are going to be very different this year. Terry Robiskie comes over from the Falcons to help run the offense but Marcus Mariota gets more help from the rushing offense even if it means a less need to pass. Adding DeMarco Murray already was a big upgrade over the turn-style at tailback last year. Then drafting Derrick Henry (Heisman winner) suddenly makes this backfield something to fear instead of ridicule. Despite little protection and no running game, Mariota still had a serviceable passing rating of 91.3. Expect better things.
On defense, Tennessee?s new GM Jon Robinson (another Patriots alumnus) made a significant overhaul (doubtless in conjunction with Dick Lebeau) bringing in free agents Spence, Johnson and Blake and taking three defenders within the draft?s first 64 picks, as well as three late round picks. The defense should benefit from being in the second year under Lebeau and from the offence controlling the ball, should that indeed come to pass. Tennessee is one of our two choices for being this year?s most improved team and we?ll put that to the test immediately in a great spot and in a very winnable game.
New York at Dallas
Play: Dallas -1
Sunday afternoon features a pair of NFC East foes as the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants. The Cowboys will start the year with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott as veteran Tony Romo will be out for 10 weeks with a fracture in his back. The 4th round pick from Mississippi State put up stellar numbers during the preseason, completing 78% of his passes and scoring 7 total touchdowns with no interceptions thrown.
The Giants dealt with some struggles offensively during the preseason, scoring just 48 total points (12 ppg). However, the three key pieces of the offense weren't around much as quarterback Eli Manning and receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz were rarely on the field together. On the flip side, the defense did look sharp throughout the preseason. Veteran Jason Pierre-Paul returns for what will be his first opening day start since 2014. Rookies Eli Apple and Darian Thompson along with newly acquired Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are expected to shore up a pass defense that allowed an NFL-worst 299 ypg last season.
Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single possession including both meetings last year in which the teams split (NYG 2-0 ATS). The focus on this handicap has obviously been on Prescott who as mentioned did look good during the preseason. Many, including myself, have concerns how he?ll react against first-stringers and more complex defensive packages. The x-factor though are the weapons surrounding him. Prescott has the benefit of playing behind one of the league?s best offensive lines and has playmakers Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley at his disposal. It puts Prescott in a good position to manage the offense effectively, particularly against a Giants defense that while on paper looks improved but still grades out as league average. I?ll support the home team in this pick ?em type price range.
Browns at Eagles
Play: Under 42
In all 7 new head coaches will be roaming the sidelines and in the spring the only thing we knew for sure was that Houston and Denver would both have new QB?s. However, after RG III won the Cleveland job, Tom Brady?s suspension finally came to fruition plus injuries to Dallas? Tony Romo and Minnesota?s Teddy Bridgewater which caused a trade of Philadelphia?s Sam Bradford there will most likely be 7 QB?s starting for a new team or for the first time. Cleveland and Philadelphia are the only teams to have both new HC?s and new starting QB?s.
Well, what does that mean? For me it means I?m looking at the UNDER for this game. The offensive skill players for the Browns rank collectively in the bottom 10% of the league while the Eagles will now go with a rookie, in Conner Wentz, who was planning to hold a clipboard this season and only completed 12 pre-season passes. By the way, that was 4th on the Eagles behind Chase Daniels (37 comp), Sam Bradford (32 comp) and McLeod Bethel-Thompson (16 comp). Expect both teams to run the ball with a conservative game plan as neither new head coach will want their new QB to commit turnovers in what both teams perceive as a very winnable game.
ARIZONA over New England
While it would be very easy to select the Seahawks this week, we are not in favor of playing the consensus favorite or the biggest favorite on the board to win because if they do lose, you end up going down with everyone else. We now get to root for Miami to knock out at least 35% of the participants (maybe more) and then hope for our quality selection to come through. Given the choice to go against Ryan Tannehill or Jimmy Garoppolo, we?ll choose the latter every time. Garoppolo has thrown 20 passes over the past two years and now he?s on the road to open the season.
The Cardinals easily took the NFC West with a 13-3 mark. With all due respect to Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians may be even be better. He?s at least Belichick?s equal. Now three seasons under Arians and the offense has never been better. Neither has the defense, which is one of the NFL?s best. There are no personnel changes of any note for the Cardinals, as the offensive scheme enters its fourth year. The Cardinals remain of the best balanced teams in the NFL. The Cards always play better at home and now they open up facing a quarterback who has never started an NFL game and who threw just one completion last year. A juggernaut losing the opener at home under those conditions is not an option.
Packers vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +5
No surprise here, the betting public is all over Green Bay. As much hype as the Jaguars have been getting, it means nothing when facing the Packers. The public loves to back Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay and will do so at what they perceive to be a favorable line.
I?m going opposite of the public action in this one and taking the Jaguars to cover the number at home. All the talk about Jacksonville surprising this year is legit. This team has the weapons to score offensively and the defense should be greatly improved. They got Pro Bowl caliber players littered on the defensive side of the ball.
One of my big concerns with Green Bay is how they will handle the humidity and heat they will be up against in Jacksonville. The Packers haven't played well on the road early in the season over recent years.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Packers are minus starting center Corey Linsley, who is on the PUP list. Backup guard Lane Taylor is being forced into the starting role. It might not seem like a big deal, but the play of the center is huge in the NFL. I think it slows down the Packers offense just enough to allow the Jags to cover.
Keep in mind this Jacksonville defense Rodgers will be facing is very young and athletic. The team is raving about last year?s first round pick in Dante Fowler Jr. They also added Malik Jackson up front and safety Tashaun Gibson. Not to mention stud rookie corner Jalen Ramsey.
Offensively the Jaguars have a lot more weapons than you might realize. Despite being under constant pressure, Blake Bortles made huge strides in year two. They have two big time playmakers at receiver in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. They also beefed up the ground game with the addition of Chris Ivory.
With a huge division game on deck at Minnesota, I think Green Bay potentially overlooks this contest against a Jaguars team that has been awful over the last 5 years (19-61). I see a close game throughout, with the value clearly with the home team in this one.
Dolphins vs. Seahawks
Play: Dolphins +10?
The Seahawks have been an elite team for the last five years of the Pete Carroll era. But Carroll?s teams tend to pick up momentum as the season goes along, not right from the get-go on opening day. The Seahawks have lost in SU fashion on opening day three times in the last five years; twice as favorites. Only once ? their Thursday Night opener against Green Bay following their Super Bowl title ? have they won on opening day by more than a touchdown. The Seahawks are not a team to lay double digits with coming out of the gate in 2016.
The betting markets continue to look at Seattle as a team without weaknesses. But one weakness has been very apparent if you?ve been paying attention to the Seahawks throughout the preseason ? their offensive line. Offensive line coach Tom Cable has been trying to cobble together a unit that won?t have a single starter playing the same position as they did last year. First round pick and expected OL centerpiece Germain Ifedi was the latest projected starter to go down with an injury in practice this past week. Throw in the Seahawks issues at running back in the post Marshawn Lynch era and it?s difficult to see how the Seahawks offense is going to click right here in Week 1, especially given the first string offenses? repeated struggles in August.
A weak, rebuilt offensive line is bad news against most teams. Against the Dolphins, it has the potential to be a disaster. Miami has spent a small fortune upgrading their front seven on defense over the past few offseasons. With Ndamukong Suh and Mario Williams anchoring the defensive front and Kiko Alonzo moving into the middle linebacker spot, don?t sleep on the Dolphins defensive talent. Expect Seattle?s running game to be very limited here, and Russell Wilson to be running for his life behind poor protection.
Can the Dolphins score enough to keep this one close? All reports out of Miami indicate that they can! New head coach Adam Gase developed a ?quarterback whisperer? reputation in previous stops at Denver and Chicago. Miami has been taking offensive linemen at the top of the draft in recent seasons; a unit loaded with elite level talent. Meanwhile, like most elite teams trying to stay elite, the Seahawks have had to pay their stars in recent seasons, leading to ongoing depth problems. The deepest defense in the league two or three years ago isn?t the deepest defense in the league any more?. ..Be sure to take at least a taste of the Dolphins on the moneyline at +425 or higher, in a game they?re live to win.
San Diego vs. Kansas City
Pick: San Diego
The KC Chiefs won 27-20 at Houston in Week 1 last season but followed with a five-game losing streak. However, the Chiefs then ended the regular season on a 10-game winning streak (it began in lucky Week 7), to finish 11-5 (tied with Denver for the AFC West?s best record but lost the tie-breaker). The Chiefs made it 11 straight wins by winning 30-0 at Houston in the wild card round but saw its winning streak and season end in New England in the divisional round, losing 27-20. Philip Rivers put up huge passing numbers last season (66.1% / 4792 yards / 29-13 ratio) but it was mostly out of necessity, as the Chargers ranked 31st in the league in rushing (84.9 YPG on 3.5 YPC) and typically found themselves playing from behind in most games. SD finished just 4-12. Many thought the Chargers were headed out of San Diego but they open the 2016 still in that beautiful city.
The two division rivals open the 2016 season in Kansas City and the winner gets to jump start its season. The Chiefs beat the Chargers in San Diego 33-3 in Week 11 and then in Kansas City (Week 14) 10-3, a game played in a downpour. KC?s Pro-Bowl running back Jamaal Charles suffered a torn ACL in his right knee in Week 5 and many figured he?d be ready here but head coach Andy Reid said Friday, "He's probably not going to play." The Chiefs kept four running backs on the 53-man active roster with Charles still ailing. The tandem of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware held up their end of the bargain in 2015, combining for 1,037 yards and 10 TDs. San Diego's No. 1 pick last year, RB Melvin Gordon was a flop (641 yards on 3.5 YPC with zero TDs) and this year?s No. 1 pick, Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa just recently agreed to terms and has been slowed by a hamstring injury that likely will keep him off the field Sunday.
QB Alex Smith can?t match Rivers? passing numbers but he?s led winning teams in both San Francisco and now KC. Off of last year, KC seems like the better team but let?s not forget that the Chargers won nine games in both 2013 and 2014. The Chargers have been at their best in this pointspread range, going 13-3 ATS when getting 4 1/2-points or more the last three years (including the 2013 postseason).
01:00 PM NFL [464] KC CHIEFS -290
01:10 PM MLB [951] Los Angeles Dodgers -179 ( K Maeda - R /Urena)
01:05 PM MLB [966] New York Yankees -129 ( M Andriese/Cessa)
02:10 PM MLB [973] Cleveland Indians -1.5 -130 (Kluber/Berrios)
1 unit bet pays 13.81 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-154, -25.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Closing out the elite tier is Kenta Maeda, who has assuaged the early season fears regarding how effective he'll be down the stretch. The questions were warranted considering the increased workload and travel incurred by the Los Angeles Dodgers' rookie, not to mention whether the league would adjust to Maeda's deception. If there's a negative to Maeda's campaign, it's averaging only 5 2/3 innings per outing, which ranks 74th out of the 111 hurlers with at least 20 starts. On the other hand, the conservative number of frames is likely the reason why the 27-year old freshman is still effective with three weeks to go in the 26-week marathon. And considering the Dodgers' bullpen is the third-best in baseball despite accounting for more innings than any other, Maeda has been handled smartly.
There's a chance Brandon Finnegan's 2016 season will be over after Sunday, so let's take a moment to point out his strong finish. Since the midsummer hiatus, the 23-year-old lefty acquired by the Cincinnati Reds in last season's Johnny Cueto trade has spun a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, featuring 60 punchouts in 58 1/3 innings. Finnegan, who struggled with control last time out, no doubt wants to end his season on a high note and has the chance to do just that facing a Pittsburgh Pirates club that's vulnerable to dominant lefties. However, the Bucs are also very patient, so Finnegan will need to throw strikes, or he may go into the offseason on a downer. It's worth noting Ryan Vogelsong will be Finnegan's mound foe, putting the win in play.
Edwin Jackson - The veteran righty made a minor mechanical adjustment before his last start, and it paid major dividends as Jackson blanked the Red Sox over seven innings. He?s struggled against Colorado with an 11.34 ERA in 12 career appearances.
Over is 16-2 in last 18 games at Target Field...Over is 46-17-2 in Min Twins' last 65 home games....Minnesota lost 17 of last 20 games.
Has there ever been a pitcher sporting a 2.84 ERA and 1.05 WHIP subject to more concern than Jake Arrieta? To be fair, a drop in whiffs and a significant spike in walks is alarming, particularly the latter. But the Chicago Cubs' righty is inducing a hard-contact rate well below league average, resulting in a .229 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), well below league norm. This is even more impressive coming from an extreme ground ball artist, as they usually carry a BABIP above league average. The defending NL Cy Young award winner is in a sneaky good spot as the opposing Astros have had a rough time with a righty on the hill since the All-Star break. The spot is even better if Carlos Correa remains sidelined.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB?
It is almost shocking that the Yankees of all teams could put on such a surge and there only be crickets, not just from the Sports Mediaverse, but also the Betting Markets. Could it be that the folks that wrote them off simply don?t want to admit their mistake and alter their notions? Now a team that has gone 6-0 on this high-pressure home-stand, moving to within a single game of the Wild Card, is being sold short once again, and it will be #966 NY Yankees (1:05 Eastern) in play this afternoon, with as low as -123 out there in the early trading (make this good to -135).
This is not just a play-on situation, but the fact that the Rays have been abysmal on the road all season, a 24-42 that includes a 4-11 slide since August 1. Matt Andriese does not have the form to turn that, looking weary in his last two outings, when the Orioles and Red Sox tagged him for 14 runs over just nine innings. It shows what happens when a division opponent gets added looks vs. his mediocre stuff, and that is a particular problem today ? he was hit very hard from this mound back on August 13, four different Yankees hitting HRs in an easy NYY win.
Luis Cessa has worked to a 2-0/3.04 in four outings since being moved into the starting rotation, only walking five batters across those 23.1 frames. With Dellin Betances fresh from a Saturday day off the later stages are in good hands as well, with the oddsmakers selling this setting short of where it should be.
In the Sights, NFL?
I will get in play today with what will be a recurring theme in the early part of the season ? with Tyler Eifert and Marvin jones missing on the field, and Hue Jackson from the sidelines, the magical season put together by Andy Dalton in 2015 brings the strong prospect of regression, and the path for Week #1 is
#459 Cincinnati Team Total Under (1:00 Eastern), with 21.5 available in the Sunday trading (make it good to -130).
Here is the arc of the Dalton?s career, measured by Passer Rating ?
2011 80.4
2012 87.4
2013 88.8
2014 83.5
2015 106.2
That puts perspective on how much of a leap 2015 was, and while Dalton indeed made strides, much of that was about the supporting cast around him, including 117 catches for 1,431 yards and 17 TDs from Jones/Eifert (13 of those TDs were from Eifert, who will be missed badly in the red zone until he returns). In terms of replacing Jones note that Dalton did not complete a pass to Brandon LaFell in the pre-season, and is still learning the ways of rookie WR Tyler Boyd, while TE?s Tyler Kroft and C. J. Uzomah are each in their second season, and unproven. Lacking chemistry will be a problem on the road against one of the NFL?s best defenses, especially with Darrelle Reavis being one of the few CBs that can go one-on-one with A. J. Green, which frees up those stunts and blitzes that are a big part of the Todd Bowles Schemes. And while opening without Sheldon Richardson would be a major blow for most teams, the Jets have plenty of depth up front.
I don?t expect the Bengals to be efficient on offense today, nor bring much of a pace as the new faces get worked in.
Minnesota @ TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE +121 over Minnesota
The Vikings are market's ?sexy? choice to come out of the NFC this season. They are building off a division title a year ago and will open a new state of the art stadium next week when they host Green Bay. Rarely is Week 1 a bad spot for anyone, as teams are excited to play for keeps but if there ever was a Week 1, look-ahead spot, this would be it.
So let?s start with the Vikings running the table in the pre-season. That?s nice but it means jack because preseason football means jack. But the Vikings won the NFC North last year with an 11-5 record you say. We say, ?That?s nice too but the Vikes beat two teams with a winning record and one of those was the Chiefs in the midst of a five-game losing streak. Everything about the Vikes is now on hold because Teddy Bridgewater went down with a season ending injury. Reports say Viking players were openly weeping on the sidelines, as they carted their leader off the field. When the dust settled, somehow the Vikes had given up a kings? ransom to get former number one pick Sam Bradford from the Eagles. However, the market isn?t too shook up by that, as Minnesota?s success revolves around their defense and running game. Hell, if Christian Ponder can win games, so too can Sam Bradford, no?
Time will tell but the emotional letdown of losing its starting QB cannot be overstated here nor can the excitement of opening their new stadium against the Packers next week. Whether it?s positive or negative, the Vikes have been one of the most talked about clubs over the past few weeks while the Titans might be the league?s biggest afterthought. That provides us with this outstanding opportunity.
The Titans are on the right track for sure so don?t sleep on them. Tennessee has improved overall, as they had an excellent draft on both sides of the ball and look to be net winners in Free Agency as well. It appears that the Titans are going to give Mike Mularkey a real shot as Head Coach. Mularkey has been saying all summer that he wants to play smash-mouth football on offense.
The Titans are going to be very different this year. Terry Robiskie comes over from the Falcons to help run the offense but Marcus Mariota gets more help from the rushing offense even if it means a less need to pass. Adding DeMarco Murray already was a big upgrade over the turn-style at tailback last year. Then drafting Derrick Henry (Heisman winner) suddenly makes this backfield something to fear instead of ridicule. Despite little protection and no running game, Mariota still had a serviceable passing rating of 91.3. Expect better things.
On defense, Tennessee?s new GM Jon Robinson (another Patriots alumnus) made a significant overhaul (doubtless in conjunction with Dick Lebeau) bringing in free agents Spence, Johnson and Blake and taking three defenders within the draft?s first 64 picks, as well as three late round picks. The defense should benefit from being in the second year under Lebeau and from the offence controlling the ball, should that indeed come to pass. Tennessee is one of our two choices for being this year?s most improved team and we?ll put that to the test immediately in a great spot and in a very winnable game.
New York at Dallas
Play: Dallas -1
Sunday afternoon features a pair of NFC East foes as the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants. The Cowboys will start the year with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott as veteran Tony Romo will be out for 10 weeks with a fracture in his back. The 4th round pick from Mississippi State put up stellar numbers during the preseason, completing 78% of his passes and scoring 7 total touchdowns with no interceptions thrown.
The Giants dealt with some struggles offensively during the preseason, scoring just 48 total points (12 ppg). However, the three key pieces of the offense weren't around much as quarterback Eli Manning and receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz were rarely on the field together. On the flip side, the defense did look sharp throughout the preseason. Veteran Jason Pierre-Paul returns for what will be his first opening day start since 2014. Rookies Eli Apple and Darian Thompson along with newly acquired Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are expected to shore up a pass defense that allowed an NFL-worst 299 ypg last season.
Five of the last six meetings have been decided by a single possession including both meetings last year in which the teams split (NYG 2-0 ATS). The focus on this handicap has obviously been on Prescott who as mentioned did look good during the preseason. Many, including myself, have concerns how he?ll react against first-stringers and more complex defensive packages. The x-factor though are the weapons surrounding him. Prescott has the benefit of playing behind one of the league?s best offensive lines and has playmakers Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley at his disposal. It puts Prescott in a good position to manage the offense effectively, particularly against a Giants defense that while on paper looks improved but still grades out as league average. I?ll support the home team in this pick ?em type price range.
Browns at Eagles
Play: Under 42
In all 7 new head coaches will be roaming the sidelines and in the spring the only thing we knew for sure was that Houston and Denver would both have new QB?s. However, after RG III won the Cleveland job, Tom Brady?s suspension finally came to fruition plus injuries to Dallas? Tony Romo and Minnesota?s Teddy Bridgewater which caused a trade of Philadelphia?s Sam Bradford there will most likely be 7 QB?s starting for a new team or for the first time. Cleveland and Philadelphia are the only teams to have both new HC?s and new starting QB?s.
Well, what does that mean? For me it means I?m looking at the UNDER for this game. The offensive skill players for the Browns rank collectively in the bottom 10% of the league while the Eagles will now go with a rookie, in Conner Wentz, who was planning to hold a clipboard this season and only completed 12 pre-season passes. By the way, that was 4th on the Eagles behind Chase Daniels (37 comp), Sam Bradford (32 comp) and McLeod Bethel-Thompson (16 comp). Expect both teams to run the ball with a conservative game plan as neither new head coach will want their new QB to commit turnovers in what both teams perceive as a very winnable game.
ARIZONA over New England
While it would be very easy to select the Seahawks this week, we are not in favor of playing the consensus favorite or the biggest favorite on the board to win because if they do lose, you end up going down with everyone else. We now get to root for Miami to knock out at least 35% of the participants (maybe more) and then hope for our quality selection to come through. Given the choice to go against Ryan Tannehill or Jimmy Garoppolo, we?ll choose the latter every time. Garoppolo has thrown 20 passes over the past two years and now he?s on the road to open the season.
The Cardinals easily took the NFC West with a 13-3 mark. With all due respect to Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians may be even be better. He?s at least Belichick?s equal. Now three seasons under Arians and the offense has never been better. Neither has the defense, which is one of the NFL?s best. There are no personnel changes of any note for the Cardinals, as the offensive scheme enters its fourth year. The Cardinals remain of the best balanced teams in the NFL. The Cards always play better at home and now they open up facing a quarterback who has never started an NFL game and who threw just one completion last year. A juggernaut losing the opener at home under those conditions is not an option.
Packers vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +5
No surprise here, the betting public is all over Green Bay. As much hype as the Jaguars have been getting, it means nothing when facing the Packers. The public loves to back Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay and will do so at what they perceive to be a favorable line.
I?m going opposite of the public action in this one and taking the Jaguars to cover the number at home. All the talk about Jacksonville surprising this year is legit. This team has the weapons to score offensively and the defense should be greatly improved. They got Pro Bowl caliber players littered on the defensive side of the ball.
One of my big concerns with Green Bay is how they will handle the humidity and heat they will be up against in Jacksonville. The Packers haven't played well on the road early in the season over recent years.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Packers are minus starting center Corey Linsley, who is on the PUP list. Backup guard Lane Taylor is being forced into the starting role. It might not seem like a big deal, but the play of the center is huge in the NFL. I think it slows down the Packers offense just enough to allow the Jags to cover.
Keep in mind this Jacksonville defense Rodgers will be facing is very young and athletic. The team is raving about last year?s first round pick in Dante Fowler Jr. They also added Malik Jackson up front and safety Tashaun Gibson. Not to mention stud rookie corner Jalen Ramsey.
Offensively the Jaguars have a lot more weapons than you might realize. Despite being under constant pressure, Blake Bortles made huge strides in year two. They have two big time playmakers at receiver in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. They also beefed up the ground game with the addition of Chris Ivory.
With a huge division game on deck at Minnesota, I think Green Bay potentially overlooks this contest against a Jaguars team that has been awful over the last 5 years (19-61). I see a close game throughout, with the value clearly with the home team in this one.
Dolphins vs. Seahawks
Play: Dolphins +10?
The Seahawks have been an elite team for the last five years of the Pete Carroll era. But Carroll?s teams tend to pick up momentum as the season goes along, not right from the get-go on opening day. The Seahawks have lost in SU fashion on opening day three times in the last five years; twice as favorites. Only once ? their Thursday Night opener against Green Bay following their Super Bowl title ? have they won on opening day by more than a touchdown. The Seahawks are not a team to lay double digits with coming out of the gate in 2016.
The betting markets continue to look at Seattle as a team without weaknesses. But one weakness has been very apparent if you?ve been paying attention to the Seahawks throughout the preseason ? their offensive line. Offensive line coach Tom Cable has been trying to cobble together a unit that won?t have a single starter playing the same position as they did last year. First round pick and expected OL centerpiece Germain Ifedi was the latest projected starter to go down with an injury in practice this past week. Throw in the Seahawks issues at running back in the post Marshawn Lynch era and it?s difficult to see how the Seahawks offense is going to click right here in Week 1, especially given the first string offenses? repeated struggles in August.
A weak, rebuilt offensive line is bad news against most teams. Against the Dolphins, it has the potential to be a disaster. Miami has spent a small fortune upgrading their front seven on defense over the past few offseasons. With Ndamukong Suh and Mario Williams anchoring the defensive front and Kiko Alonzo moving into the middle linebacker spot, don?t sleep on the Dolphins defensive talent. Expect Seattle?s running game to be very limited here, and Russell Wilson to be running for his life behind poor protection.
Can the Dolphins score enough to keep this one close? All reports out of Miami indicate that they can! New head coach Adam Gase developed a ?quarterback whisperer? reputation in previous stops at Denver and Chicago. Miami has been taking offensive linemen at the top of the draft in recent seasons; a unit loaded with elite level talent. Meanwhile, like most elite teams trying to stay elite, the Seahawks have had to pay their stars in recent seasons, leading to ongoing depth problems. The deepest defense in the league two or three years ago isn?t the deepest defense in the league any more?. ..Be sure to take at least a taste of the Dolphins on the moneyline at +425 or higher, in a game they?re live to win.
San Diego vs. Kansas City
Pick: San Diego
The KC Chiefs won 27-20 at Houston in Week 1 last season but followed with a five-game losing streak. However, the Chiefs then ended the regular season on a 10-game winning streak (it began in lucky Week 7), to finish 11-5 (tied with Denver for the AFC West?s best record but lost the tie-breaker). The Chiefs made it 11 straight wins by winning 30-0 at Houston in the wild card round but saw its winning streak and season end in New England in the divisional round, losing 27-20. Philip Rivers put up huge passing numbers last season (66.1% / 4792 yards / 29-13 ratio) but it was mostly out of necessity, as the Chargers ranked 31st in the league in rushing (84.9 YPG on 3.5 YPC) and typically found themselves playing from behind in most games. SD finished just 4-12. Many thought the Chargers were headed out of San Diego but they open the 2016 still in that beautiful city.
The two division rivals open the 2016 season in Kansas City and the winner gets to jump start its season. The Chiefs beat the Chargers in San Diego 33-3 in Week 11 and then in Kansas City (Week 14) 10-3, a game played in a downpour. KC?s Pro-Bowl running back Jamaal Charles suffered a torn ACL in his right knee in Week 5 and many figured he?d be ready here but head coach Andy Reid said Friday, "He's probably not going to play." The Chiefs kept four running backs on the 53-man active roster with Charles still ailing. The tandem of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware held up their end of the bargain in 2015, combining for 1,037 yards and 10 TDs. San Diego's No. 1 pick last year, RB Melvin Gordon was a flop (641 yards on 3.5 YPC with zero TDs) and this year?s No. 1 pick, Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa just recently agreed to terms and has been slowed by a hamstring injury that likely will keep him off the field Sunday.
QB Alex Smith can?t match Rivers? passing numbers but he?s led winning teams in both San Francisco and now KC. Off of last year, KC seems like the better team but let?s not forget that the Chargers won nine games in both 2013 and 2014. The Chargers have been at their best in this pointspread range, going 13-3 ATS when getting 4 1/2-points or more the last three years (including the 2013 postseason).
