Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line -138
Detroit Tigers Money Line -152
St Louis Cardinals/Chicago Cubs Total Points Under 9 (-115)
Miami Dolphins Money Line -450
Green Bay Packers Money Line -250
Pittsburgh Steelers Money Line -200
1 unit bet pays 12.72 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-164, -36.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074 Goooooood Luck ALLLL!!!! :spotting: :00hour:em71: :drinky: :mj06:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
OAKLAND -105 over Texas
The Rangers punched their ticket to the playoffs with a victory yesterday. The Rangers will very likely end up with the best record in the AL but they are a good fade today after the celebrations. Figure the Rangers to rest some starters here too. The pitching matchup of Colby Lewis versus Jharel Cotton favors the Athletics too. Cotton is coming off a two-hit, 0 walks, 6 K gem in six frames against the Astros while Lewis is coming off two months on the DL and two subsequent below average starts that the Rangers lost both times.
This is a strong situational play that the price will allow us to step into.
N.Y. Yankees +136 over TORONTO
The Yanks have gone cold but that is still not going to deter us from backing them at these prices in a pitching matchup that so heavily favors them. The last time Michael Pineda faced the Blue Jays, he had a 5-0 lead in the 5th back in New York when the rains came and a subsequently 45 minute rain delay. Pineda did not return and the Jays rallied to win but Pineda was making them look foolish up there.
After enduring a 6.33 ERA in April and a 7.52 ERA in May, despite outstanding skills, Michael Pineda finally posted a 2.75 ERA 0.97 WHIP in June. But he was back to his early season returns in July and August with a 4.80 ERA. Michael Pineda is the poster boy for how luck plays a factor in this game and how it could follow one around, either good or bad for months at a time. Pineda has an xERA this season of 3.40. His xERA in his last six starts is 2.67, which is the third highest in the majors over that span. Pineda has been hurt by more than his share of misfortune and should have some of the best surface stats in baseball. He has been stung badly by hit rate, strand rate, and hr/f (17%) bad luck. Yankee Stadium's net +55% HR park factor is second in the majors only to Miller Park and is certainly a factor here. The 1?+ run gap between Pineda's ERA & xERA screams for a correction, as does his command numbers. Pineda sports an elite strikeout rate (199 in 165 IP) with sufficient swinging strikes to validate it and his control sub-indicators support it all. Pineda has the talent and tools to pitch at the front of a rotation but he?s not priced like it.
The question here is will luck win over skill. It could but Marco Estrada is the opposite of Pineda. Estrada?s 3.62 ERA is much lower than his 5.22 xERA. Over his last 32 innings, Estrada has walked 15 batters. Over his last 32 innings, Estrada?s groundball/fly-ball rate continues to be one of the worst in the game at 30%/49%. In his last start, Estrada?s groundball rate was 21%. Estrada continues to wiggle out of jams with a high strand rate. Everything that Estrada does with the exception of getting guys to swing and miss on his changeup, is luck driven. From his low hit-rate to his high strand rate, to his hard hit balls being hit at people to his warning track shots just missing, Estrada is a rare pitcher that is behind in the count to almost every batter he faces and gets away with that too. That doesn?t mean that Estrada?s luck will not hold up here, as it very well could. What it does mean is that his surface numbers are not sustainable and whether it?s this year, next year or in the playoffs, Estrada is in for another major swoon, just like the one he had in mid-August.
Mariners -140
I'm coming right back with Seattle on Sunday, as the Mariners should have no problem bouncing back from yesterday's defeat. Seattle will once again have a clear edge on the mound, as they send out Taijuan Walker against Hector Santiago. Walker has really pitched well of late, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Santiago on the other hand has struggled to the tune of a 4.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He was hit especially hard in his last outing, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits at home to the Tigers. Mariners are 23-8 in their last 31 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 5-0 in their last 5 during Game 3 of a series. Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 off a win and 0-4 in their last 4 during Game 3 of a series.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -7
NFL teams coming off an upset win (i.e. won as an underdog) are a money-burning 419-473 ATS in their next game, which makes sense since amateur bettors tend to overreact to short-term results and/or small sample sizes. NFL teams coming off an upset win at home are an even worse 149-205 ATS in their next game, giving us a solid 57.9% ATS winning proposition with the Panthers this afternoon. Finally, NFL home teams matched up against an opponent off an upset win at home are a profitable 151-106 ATS (58.8% win rate).
Minnesota is coming off an emotionally-charged upset win over the Packers in its season-opener and now have to travel to play an explosive Carolina squad that is averaging 40.4 points in their last seven home games. The Vikings will also be without the services of running back Adrian Peterson, who suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee, and left tackle Matt Kalil, who underwent surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right hip.
The loss of Kalil is significant in that quarterback Sam Bradford was pressured on 31.4% of his dropbacks last week despite the fact that he had the 10th-fastest release in the league. Carolina's stout defense has forced three-and-outs on 48.1% of their opponent's possessions this season, which leads the league. Finally, let's not forget the fact that Sam Bradford has underperformed throughout his NFL career and actually lost the starting job to a rookie who played on a limited basis during the preseason.
With Carolina standing at 9-2 ATS at home since the start of last season, including 4-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown (keep an eye on the line), lay the points with the Panthers and invest with confidence.
Vikings vs. Panthers
Play: Under 42
Yes, the oddsmakers have put a big number, for the NFL anyway, on the Carolina Panthers here at -7, a full touchdown favorite over the Minnesota Vikings, fresh off a great showing in their new stadium home opener against the hated Green Bay Packers. Sam Bradford actually looked like an NFL Quarterback in that game, but the worst news out of that game was Adrian Peterson was lost for the next 8 weeks minimum with a knee injury that has already been surgically repaired.
The Panthers won with ease in a score fest against the Niners last week at home but I want everyone to hold the presses a minute. The last time Carolina faced a good defense they lost to Denver to open the season and scored 20 points. The Vikings managed 17 points last week against a bad defense. Let?s do the math here for a minute. The strength of the Panthers is their defense and they will get after Sam Bradford like none other today. I am not sold on Bradford and never have been since he left Oklahoma, he likes to turn it over and hang on to the ball too long, and against this pass rush of Carolina, that is doom. Also the Vikings after 2 weeks rank 28th in total yards on offense in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball for the Vikings is a well-coached, lean and mean defense that can give any QB fits, just ask Aaron Rodgers. Cam Netwon will be held in check and without RB Stewart this week, that also opens the door to a nonproductive offense for the Panthers against this Vikings defense. The Vikings defense after 2 weeks ranks 5th in the NFL.
All in all, I can see the Vikings making a game of this and taking the 7 points with the underdog Vikes in a low scoring affair is very tempting, but I am not sure Bradford and company can put up more than 10 points here in all honesty. When looking at the Las Vegas Line value, in my opinion it is not the side play, but the Totals play and the line at 43 totals points that has value. I can easily see neither team getting past 17-20 points here and I think this will be a defensive battle from wire to wire and points at a premium.
Steelers vs. Eagles
Play: Steelers -3?
Yes, the Eagles are 2-0 to open the season. But those two wins came against Bottom 5 competition, with both the Browns and Bears losing at truly dismal seasons. This is a major step up in class for a team playing on a short week, a mediocre (at best) squad who is feeling pretty good about themselves right now.
Make no mistake about it. Carson Wentz has looked pretty good, with a QB rating of 94 through his first two NFL starts. He?s yet to throw an interception and he?s only been sacked four times in 75 dropbacks. But Jordan Matthews is the only receiver with 100 yards. Despite the success of the passing game, Philly is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. And they?ve only faced bottom tier defenses thus far, with the Browns at the very bottom of any defensive rankings and the Bears suffering a barrage of in-game injuries that left them without five defensive starters in the second half. Pittsburgh?s defense isn?t truly elite, but it?s a good notch or two better than anything Wentz and the Eagles offense has seen before.
Philly has looked good defensively against RG3 (who may never start another NFL game) and Jay Cutler (who, if Chicago wasn?t paying him a fortune, might never start another NFL game). The Steelers offense is another animal entirely. Two time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger ranks in the upper echelon of NFL QB?s. Antonio Brown is the most dangerous receiver in the NFL. Sammie Coates has emerged as a deep threat on every drive. DeAngelo Williams leads the NFL in rushing yards through the first two weeks. The Steelers hung 24 on a top notch defense in lousy weather last week, and there?s no reason to think that Philly?s defense will be able to stop them or that Philly?s offense will be able to trade points. Expect a comfortable win from the road favorite.
Broncos vs. Bengals
Play: Broncos +3?
Even with Dalton expected to play in this one, I still think the edge is with Denver. Especially with the Broncos catching a field goal plus the hook.
I?ve mentioned it several times now, but Denver just isn?t getting the love you would expect to see for defending Super Bowl champion. I?m not saying they shouldn?t be a dog in Cincinnati, but they shouldn?t be catching more than a field goal.
For me this one comes down to the Broncos having an edge on both sides of the ball. Denver?s offense hasn?t been anything spectacular, but they have ran the ball effectively. The Broncos put up 148 yards on the ground against the Panthers and 134 more yards last week against the Colts.
Cincinnati has had a horrible time trying to contain the run. They allowed 152 yards on the ground against the Jets in Week 1 and 124 last week to the Steelers. As long as Denver can run the ball, Trevor Siemian is going to continue to play well. Keep in mind a key reason for the Bengals struggles against the run is the absence of Vontaze Burfict. He?s not eligible to return from his suspension until Week 4.
Coming into the season the Bengals looked to have one of the better offensive lines. So far that hasn?t been the case. Cincinnati has 103 combined rushing yards in their first two games. Andy Dalton has also been sacked 8 times, 7 coming in the opener against the Jets.
When you can?t run the football, it?s hard to have success against Denver?s defense. Not only do the Broncos have a great pass rush, but they are loaded with talent in the secondary.
It?s also worth noting Denver has thrived as an underdog under Gary Kubiak. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot, winning on average by a score of 26.0 to 20.0. At the same time, we see that the Bengals are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 after playing 2 straight on the road.
Tampa Bay -4.5
I occasionally will make a play based almost solely on the situation, and this looks like one of those spots. I don't like this scenario for the visiting Rams, and I very much like it for the Tampa Bay side.
First off, I'll just say that I couldn't care less about the travel factor. The west to east deal that used to work very well really hasn't for some time now, and I basically ignored that completely when sizing up this particular game.
What does matter to me is that the 1-1 Rams are incompetent on offense and I believe they're in the wrong place on the wrong week here.
Los Angeles is off a huge emotional win. They just won the first game in their new home and did so against a true rival as the Seahawks are divisional opponents. That was a gigantic victory for Jeff Fisher's team. But were they impressive in getting past Seattle? I sure didn't think so. I thought the win was more an indication of just how awful the Seattle offense is right now. The Seahawks offensive line is pathetic, and QB Russell Wilson was clearly not his usual self thanks to that balky ankle. The Rams were good enough to get the win, but I certainly didn't upgrade them off getting that decision.
Meanwhile, the Bucs had to head to the desert to face a superior Cardinals squad that was smarting from a disappointing Week One defeat at the hands of the Patriots. Arizona was more than ready to play on Sunday, and the Cardinals were also catching the Bucs in a second straight road game off a divisional win against Atlanta. From a scheduling dynamics standpoint, that was one tough spot for Tampa Bay.
Had the Bucs put forth a big effort and just come up a little short, I might not feel as I do about this game. But they got absolutely humiliated by the Cardinals for the entire 60 minutes. I like this team to be improved this season, so my take here is that I'm going to get a fired up host eager to make immediate amends for a terrible showing.
Better team at home in what looks to be a favorable situational spot is more than palatable to me and I'm making the Buccaneers minus the points my free play for this weekend's NFL slate.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL?
So we come full circle in this one, and ?go down to Tampa? after all. As note din the lead this week there were a lot of actors that had me wanting to put he Bucs at the top of the list, but there needed to be a proper line compensation for the absence of Doug Martin. Now there has been, and with -3.5 commonly available, much of that at reduced vig, it is #480 Tampa Bay (4:05 Eastern) in play.
I don?t have to say much more about the limitations of the Rams offense that to note something remarkable, courtesy of the folks at Pro Football Focus ? Todd Gurley has 101 yards after contact through the first two games, yet only 98 net rushing yards. That shows the limitations of Case Keenum and a weak set of receivers in stretching opposing defenses, which is not going to change any time soon. With Gurley neutralized it leaves L.A. with one strength, the pass rush, but that may not be in play for the full four quarters today ? with a Heat Index of 98 projected at kickoff, the Tampa humidity can wear down a group accustomed to playing in much drier conditions.
One of the ways that Dirk Koetter can work around not having Martin is to pick up the pace and throw even more. Tampa is already snapping 1.3 seconds faster than 2015, and while Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers do not have Martin?s punch between the tackles they are both good receivers. Look for an aggressive approach that can wear down that defense, and the pop-gun Ram passing game to lack a counter from behind.
Detroit Tigers Money Line -152
St Louis Cardinals/Chicago Cubs Total Points Under 9 (-115)
Miami Dolphins Money Line -450
Green Bay Packers Money Line -250
Pittsburgh Steelers Money Line -200
1 unit bet pays 12.72 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-164, -36.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
OAKLAND -105 over Texas
The Rangers punched their ticket to the playoffs with a victory yesterday. The Rangers will very likely end up with the best record in the AL but they are a good fade today after the celebrations. Figure the Rangers to rest some starters here too. The pitching matchup of Colby Lewis versus Jharel Cotton favors the Athletics too. Cotton is coming off a two-hit, 0 walks, 6 K gem in six frames against the Astros while Lewis is coming off two months on the DL and two subsequent below average starts that the Rangers lost both times.
This is a strong situational play that the price will allow us to step into.
N.Y. Yankees +136 over TORONTO
The Yanks have gone cold but that is still not going to deter us from backing them at these prices in a pitching matchup that so heavily favors them. The last time Michael Pineda faced the Blue Jays, he had a 5-0 lead in the 5th back in New York when the rains came and a subsequently 45 minute rain delay. Pineda did not return and the Jays rallied to win but Pineda was making them look foolish up there.
After enduring a 6.33 ERA in April and a 7.52 ERA in May, despite outstanding skills, Michael Pineda finally posted a 2.75 ERA 0.97 WHIP in June. But he was back to his early season returns in July and August with a 4.80 ERA. Michael Pineda is the poster boy for how luck plays a factor in this game and how it could follow one around, either good or bad for months at a time. Pineda has an xERA this season of 3.40. His xERA in his last six starts is 2.67, which is the third highest in the majors over that span. Pineda has been hurt by more than his share of misfortune and should have some of the best surface stats in baseball. He has been stung badly by hit rate, strand rate, and hr/f (17%) bad luck. Yankee Stadium's net +55% HR park factor is second in the majors only to Miller Park and is certainly a factor here. The 1?+ run gap between Pineda's ERA & xERA screams for a correction, as does his command numbers. Pineda sports an elite strikeout rate (199 in 165 IP) with sufficient swinging strikes to validate it and his control sub-indicators support it all. Pineda has the talent and tools to pitch at the front of a rotation but he?s not priced like it.
The question here is will luck win over skill. It could but Marco Estrada is the opposite of Pineda. Estrada?s 3.62 ERA is much lower than his 5.22 xERA. Over his last 32 innings, Estrada has walked 15 batters. Over his last 32 innings, Estrada?s groundball/fly-ball rate continues to be one of the worst in the game at 30%/49%. In his last start, Estrada?s groundball rate was 21%. Estrada continues to wiggle out of jams with a high strand rate. Everything that Estrada does with the exception of getting guys to swing and miss on his changeup, is luck driven. From his low hit-rate to his high strand rate, to his hard hit balls being hit at people to his warning track shots just missing, Estrada is a rare pitcher that is behind in the count to almost every batter he faces and gets away with that too. That doesn?t mean that Estrada?s luck will not hold up here, as it very well could. What it does mean is that his surface numbers are not sustainable and whether it?s this year, next year or in the playoffs, Estrada is in for another major swoon, just like the one he had in mid-August.
Mariners -140
I'm coming right back with Seattle on Sunday, as the Mariners should have no problem bouncing back from yesterday's defeat. Seattle will once again have a clear edge on the mound, as they send out Taijuan Walker against Hector Santiago. Walker has really pitched well of late, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Santiago on the other hand has struggled to the tune of a 4.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He was hit especially hard in his last outing, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits at home to the Tigers. Mariners are 23-8 in their last 31 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games and 5-0 in their last 5 during Game 3 of a series. Twins are 0-7 in their last 7 off a win and 0-4 in their last 4 during Game 3 of a series.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -7
NFL teams coming off an upset win (i.e. won as an underdog) are a money-burning 419-473 ATS in their next game, which makes sense since amateur bettors tend to overreact to short-term results and/or small sample sizes. NFL teams coming off an upset win at home are an even worse 149-205 ATS in their next game, giving us a solid 57.9% ATS winning proposition with the Panthers this afternoon. Finally, NFL home teams matched up against an opponent off an upset win at home are a profitable 151-106 ATS (58.8% win rate).
Minnesota is coming off an emotionally-charged upset win over the Packers in its season-opener and now have to travel to play an explosive Carolina squad that is averaging 40.4 points in their last seven home games. The Vikings will also be without the services of running back Adrian Peterson, who suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee, and left tackle Matt Kalil, who underwent surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right hip.
The loss of Kalil is significant in that quarterback Sam Bradford was pressured on 31.4% of his dropbacks last week despite the fact that he had the 10th-fastest release in the league. Carolina's stout defense has forced three-and-outs on 48.1% of their opponent's possessions this season, which leads the league. Finally, let's not forget the fact that Sam Bradford has underperformed throughout his NFL career and actually lost the starting job to a rookie who played on a limited basis during the preseason.
With Carolina standing at 9-2 ATS at home since the start of last season, including 4-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown (keep an eye on the line), lay the points with the Panthers and invest with confidence.
Vikings vs. Panthers
Play: Under 42
Yes, the oddsmakers have put a big number, for the NFL anyway, on the Carolina Panthers here at -7, a full touchdown favorite over the Minnesota Vikings, fresh off a great showing in their new stadium home opener against the hated Green Bay Packers. Sam Bradford actually looked like an NFL Quarterback in that game, but the worst news out of that game was Adrian Peterson was lost for the next 8 weeks minimum with a knee injury that has already been surgically repaired.
The Panthers won with ease in a score fest against the Niners last week at home but I want everyone to hold the presses a minute. The last time Carolina faced a good defense they lost to Denver to open the season and scored 20 points. The Vikings managed 17 points last week against a bad defense. Let?s do the math here for a minute. The strength of the Panthers is their defense and they will get after Sam Bradford like none other today. I am not sold on Bradford and never have been since he left Oklahoma, he likes to turn it over and hang on to the ball too long, and against this pass rush of Carolina, that is doom. Also the Vikings after 2 weeks rank 28th in total yards on offense in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball for the Vikings is a well-coached, lean and mean defense that can give any QB fits, just ask Aaron Rodgers. Cam Netwon will be held in check and without RB Stewart this week, that also opens the door to a nonproductive offense for the Panthers against this Vikings defense. The Vikings defense after 2 weeks ranks 5th in the NFL.
All in all, I can see the Vikings making a game of this and taking the 7 points with the underdog Vikes in a low scoring affair is very tempting, but I am not sure Bradford and company can put up more than 10 points here in all honesty. When looking at the Las Vegas Line value, in my opinion it is not the side play, but the Totals play and the line at 43 totals points that has value. I can easily see neither team getting past 17-20 points here and I think this will be a defensive battle from wire to wire and points at a premium.
Steelers vs. Eagles
Play: Steelers -3?
Yes, the Eagles are 2-0 to open the season. But those two wins came against Bottom 5 competition, with both the Browns and Bears losing at truly dismal seasons. This is a major step up in class for a team playing on a short week, a mediocre (at best) squad who is feeling pretty good about themselves right now.
Make no mistake about it. Carson Wentz has looked pretty good, with a QB rating of 94 through his first two NFL starts. He?s yet to throw an interception and he?s only been sacked four times in 75 dropbacks. But Jordan Matthews is the only receiver with 100 yards. Despite the success of the passing game, Philly is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. And they?ve only faced bottom tier defenses thus far, with the Browns at the very bottom of any defensive rankings and the Bears suffering a barrage of in-game injuries that left them without five defensive starters in the second half. Pittsburgh?s defense isn?t truly elite, but it?s a good notch or two better than anything Wentz and the Eagles offense has seen before.
Philly has looked good defensively against RG3 (who may never start another NFL game) and Jay Cutler (who, if Chicago wasn?t paying him a fortune, might never start another NFL game). The Steelers offense is another animal entirely. Two time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger ranks in the upper echelon of NFL QB?s. Antonio Brown is the most dangerous receiver in the NFL. Sammie Coates has emerged as a deep threat on every drive. DeAngelo Williams leads the NFL in rushing yards through the first two weeks. The Steelers hung 24 on a top notch defense in lousy weather last week, and there?s no reason to think that Philly?s defense will be able to stop them or that Philly?s offense will be able to trade points. Expect a comfortable win from the road favorite.
Broncos vs. Bengals
Play: Broncos +3?
Even with Dalton expected to play in this one, I still think the edge is with Denver. Especially with the Broncos catching a field goal plus the hook.
I?ve mentioned it several times now, but Denver just isn?t getting the love you would expect to see for defending Super Bowl champion. I?m not saying they shouldn?t be a dog in Cincinnati, but they shouldn?t be catching more than a field goal.
For me this one comes down to the Broncos having an edge on both sides of the ball. Denver?s offense hasn?t been anything spectacular, but they have ran the ball effectively. The Broncos put up 148 yards on the ground against the Panthers and 134 more yards last week against the Colts.
Cincinnati has had a horrible time trying to contain the run. They allowed 152 yards on the ground against the Jets in Week 1 and 124 last week to the Steelers. As long as Denver can run the ball, Trevor Siemian is going to continue to play well. Keep in mind a key reason for the Bengals struggles against the run is the absence of Vontaze Burfict. He?s not eligible to return from his suspension until Week 4.
Coming into the season the Bengals looked to have one of the better offensive lines. So far that hasn?t been the case. Cincinnati has 103 combined rushing yards in their first two games. Andy Dalton has also been sacked 8 times, 7 coming in the opener against the Jets.
When you can?t run the football, it?s hard to have success against Denver?s defense. Not only do the Broncos have a great pass rush, but they are loaded with talent in the secondary.
It?s also worth noting Denver has thrived as an underdog under Gary Kubiak. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot, winning on average by a score of 26.0 to 20.0. At the same time, we see that the Bengals are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 after playing 2 straight on the road.
Tampa Bay -4.5
I occasionally will make a play based almost solely on the situation, and this looks like one of those spots. I don't like this scenario for the visiting Rams, and I very much like it for the Tampa Bay side.
First off, I'll just say that I couldn't care less about the travel factor. The west to east deal that used to work very well really hasn't for some time now, and I basically ignored that completely when sizing up this particular game.
What does matter to me is that the 1-1 Rams are incompetent on offense and I believe they're in the wrong place on the wrong week here.
Los Angeles is off a huge emotional win. They just won the first game in their new home and did so against a true rival as the Seahawks are divisional opponents. That was a gigantic victory for Jeff Fisher's team. But were they impressive in getting past Seattle? I sure didn't think so. I thought the win was more an indication of just how awful the Seattle offense is right now. The Seahawks offensive line is pathetic, and QB Russell Wilson was clearly not his usual self thanks to that balky ankle. The Rams were good enough to get the win, but I certainly didn't upgrade them off getting that decision.
Meanwhile, the Bucs had to head to the desert to face a superior Cardinals squad that was smarting from a disappointing Week One defeat at the hands of the Patriots. Arizona was more than ready to play on Sunday, and the Cardinals were also catching the Bucs in a second straight road game off a divisional win against Atlanta. From a scheduling dynamics standpoint, that was one tough spot for Tampa Bay.
Had the Bucs put forth a big effort and just come up a little short, I might not feel as I do about this game. But they got absolutely humiliated by the Cardinals for the entire 60 minutes. I like this team to be improved this season, so my take here is that I'm going to get a fired up host eager to make immediate amends for a terrible showing.
Better team at home in what looks to be a favorable situational spot is more than palatable to me and I'm making the Buccaneers minus the points my free play for this weekend's NFL slate.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL?
So we come full circle in this one, and ?go down to Tampa? after all. As note din the lead this week there were a lot of actors that had me wanting to put he Bucs at the top of the list, but there needed to be a proper line compensation for the absence of Doug Martin. Now there has been, and with -3.5 commonly available, much of that at reduced vig, it is #480 Tampa Bay (4:05 Eastern) in play.
I don?t have to say much more about the limitations of the Rams offense that to note something remarkable, courtesy of the folks at Pro Football Focus ? Todd Gurley has 101 yards after contact through the first two games, yet only 98 net rushing yards. That shows the limitations of Case Keenum and a weak set of receivers in stretching opposing defenses, which is not going to change any time soon. With Gurley neutralized it leaves L.A. with one strength, the pass rush, but that may not be in play for the full four quarters today ? with a Heat Index of 98 projected at kickoff, the Tampa humidity can wear down a group accustomed to playing in much drier conditions.
One of the ways that Dirk Koetter can work around not having Martin is to pick up the pace and throw even more. Tampa is already snapping 1.3 seconds faster than 2015, and while Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers do not have Martin?s punch between the tackles they are both good receivers. Look for an aggressive approach that can wear down that defense, and the pop-gun Ram passing game to lack a counter from behind.
