01:00 PM NFL [452] TOTAL u43-110 (JAX JAGUARS vrs KC CHIEFS)
01:00 PM NFL [454] TOTAL u42-110 (DET LIONS vrs MIN VIKINGS)
04:25 PM NFL [468] GB PACKERS -7-115
08:30 PM NFL [471] DEN BRONCOS PK-105
10:35 PM NBA [512] Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 -105
06:05 PM NHL [2] Detroit Red Wings -150
08:05 PM NHL [8] New York Rangers -220
08:05 PM NHL [10] Chicago Blackhawks -160
1 unit bet pays 101 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
N.Y. Jets +3? over MIAMI
An angry Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets have gone 2-0 after trying to bench him in Week 7. Another player left on the scrap heap was running back Matt Forte but he's quietly having a great season. Forte has scored four touchdowns during the Jets' two game winning streak. The Jets' run defense has been solid this season, as they are tied for the league lead, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt. That should serve them well here, as they head to Miami to face a Dolphins squad that has been very run heavy their last two games and if the Fish can?t run, they sure as hell can?t pass either.
The Dolphins had a ton of momentum before heading into the bye. The legend of running back Jay Ajayi only grew as the Fish sat idle. Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards in both of his starts this season and now all eyes are on him, as he tries to set a Super Bowl era record by becoming the first player to rush for over 200 yards in three straight games. The Dolphins have won two straight but those were as a plucky home dog. They are now laying points in a division game, which is a completely different role that they rarely thrive in. We have pointed out two distinct cases of two different teams that were forced to take huge momentum into its bye week and subsequently shit the bed upon returning. The first case was Philadelphia taking its 3-0 record into its bye before losing to Detroit. The second case was Minnesota taking its 5-0 record into its bye week before losing to Philadelphia. Now it?s the Dolphins turn after seemingly turning their season around with huge wins in back-to-back games against the then red-hot Steelers and Bills. Do you remember how pathetic the Dolphins looked in back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Tennessee less than a month ago? That?s the Miami team we expect to see here. It's time to sell.
Jacksonville vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The 2-5 Jags and 5-2 Chiefs meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. No one's quite sure what happened to KC's Alex Smith last Sunday (concussion or not?) but either way, he's being held out of Sunday's game. Nick Foles played well in relief of Smith last Sunday against the Colts, completing 16 of 22 for 223 yards with two TD passes, no interceptions and a QB rating of 135.2. He'll get the start on Sunday.
Jacksonville head coach Gus Bailey fired offensive coordinator Greg Olson two days after losing 36-22 beating at Tennessee in a Week 8 Thursday night game Olson was replaced by QBs coach Nathanial Hackett, the son of former Chiefs offensive coordinator from the 1990s Paul Hackett. Bradley is under mounting pressure, as he's 14-41 as head coach of the Jaguars and his teams are 5-22 on the road the last three-plus seasons.
QB Blake Bortles had a strong season for the struggling Jags last year (4,428 yards with 35 TDs and 18 INTs) but things haven't gone as well in 2016. Concerns about his mechanics prompted a call for help from Adam Dedeaux, who is part of the 3DQB Academy in southern California that's run by former major league pitcher and now quarterback Guru Tom House. "Hopefully, we'll tighten some things up and get back to where I was throwing the ball with efficiency," said Bortles. "When you struggle with what you're supposed to do all the time, you try to fix it as quickly as possible rather than let it get worse."
Maybe Dedeaux can help Bortles but he can't help the team's pathetic running game, averaging a pathetic 72.6 YPG (30th) or a defense allowing 28.0 PPG (26th). KC would rather have Smith at QB than Foles, as the Chiefs have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games under Smith. Yes, Foles is much more prone to turning it over than Smith but note that the Jacksonville defense hasn't forced a single turnover in its last three games. Foles has experience in Andy Reid?s offense from their time together in Philadelphia and I'm going to lay the points with the Chiefs.
Philadelphia (+2.5) over New York
I don't like the Giants as a favorite here. Don't buy in to the fact that this team is 4-3 or that they are coming off their bye. The Giants offense is basic and boring, and that is truly disappointing with the talent that they have on that side of the football. Ben McAdoo and his coaching staff are letting this team down as they have the ability to be considerably better. The Eagles defense will give the Giants fits in this game as they will have Eli forcing throws all day long. The Giants seem to be too stubborn to move their wideouts around, and until they do so they won't be able to compete with the better teams in the NFL. The Giants running game is inept. They haven't averaged more than three yards per carry in their last three games. The Eagles defense is one of the best in the NFL in points per game/against, and that will prove very beneficial in this game. Look for the Eagles to win this game outright 24-20.
Jaguars (2-5) at Chiefs (5-2)
Not eager to endorse the Chiefs in this price range but happy to fade these useless Jaguars as they continue to falter week in and week out. No seat is hotter than Gus Bradley?s at the moment, however not much figures to change as there are no valid excuses for Jacksonville?s poor play other than incompetence. Kansas City is on a three-game win streak, two of those contests coming on the road. While KC has significant injuries on offence, its defence has managed to stop Derek Carr, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck on current run so slowing down inadequate Blake Bortles shouldn?t be much of a challenge. KC can ill afford to look past a visitor such as this one as its decent 5-2 mark still has them sitting third in competitive AFC West. The Jags have just two wins in past 19 road games and there?s little evidence of that changing. TAKING: CHIEFS ?7?
Eagles (4-3) at Giants (4-3)
Very comfortable taking points with defensively sound Eagles, especially against erratic division foe such as these Giants. Philadelphia is not only 3-1 versus spread when receiving points this season but are also 3-1 straight up in same games. The only blemish was an unjust one when Dallas scored a major in overtime last week, the Eagles +4 but losing by six. The Giants may be feeling a false sense of security after being off for two weeks after defeating the Rams over in England. That game saw Los Angeles QB Case Keenum at his unreliable best with four interceptions but the G-Men only able to manage a 17-10 triumph despite all of LA?s miscues. These two know each other all too well as the visitor has fared well in series, able to cover in 15 of the previous 22 encounters. We prefer the points offered, complemented by the better defensive squad. TAKING: EAGLES +2?
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
Blake Bortles is the practice squad superstar throwing for 337 yards and 3 TDs last week in a blowout?loss to the Titans last Thursday night. While B-squared?s numbers are a facade, what is for real is the Jaguars defense which is holding opponents to under 44% success rate offensively and a 7th ranked yards per play allowed of 5.2 yards. On the other side of the ball the Chiefs new QB1, Nick Foles, looked great in spot duty last week, going 16-22 for 233 and 2 TDs. With Alex Smith in concussion protocol, the Chiefs may find that Foles is an upgrade at the QB position as he is someone who takes more sacks, but also more deep shots. Foles grades out slightly below Smith because of his terrible time with the Rams (in which he averaged 5.6 NYPP), although in the right system he has produced numbers that do far exceed Captain Checkdowns (6.9 NYPP for Foles vs. 6.2 NYPP for Smith). The Chiefs are 5-2 and the Jags are 2-5 and a big part is not the peripheral stats each team has put up, but the turnover differential as the Chiefs are +9 and Jags -8.
In what was initially a Jags Best Bet at +9.5 against Alex Smith, but with the Chiefs getting a possible upgrade in QB with Nick Foles and the line shrinking to +7.5 the advanced stats model now makes the Jaguars (+7.5) a Strong Opinion and UNDER (44) a Strong Opinion.
Cowboys vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8?
Well, we are at the half-way point in the season and the Browns have yet to win a game (0-8 ) and the Cowboys (6-1) are running away from everyone in their division. And running is the key with Ezekiel Elliott and their offense works with rookie Dak Prescott heading the offense. Dallas was very fortunate to escape with an overtime won against the Eagles last Sunday and next week they have Pittsburgh on deck. I believe Dallas can't help but look ahead at the Steelers and sleep walk through this contest.
MINNESOTA -6 over Detroit
The Lions are a mess. The Matt Stafford MVP talk is completely crazy but it's not often the Lions get national attention for something positive, so we'll take this opportunity to capitalize on it. Detroit has won three out of four but all of those victories came at home. On the road this season, Detroit has been a low percentage play with just one win and one cover in four tries and no wins or covers in its last three. The Lions have also failed to cover in both of their division games this year. Their defense hasn't stopped anybody this season and they've made average quarterbacks like Brock Osweiler and Case Keenum look like All-Pros.
The Vikings were a popular choice on Monday night against the Bears and that game was another great example of why it's so dangerous to lay points on the road in a prime time division game. Minny was also the overwhelming choice in Philadelphia the week prior so they've let its many backers down two weeks in a row after starting the season 5-0. We often preach stepping in when most are jumping off, as this is a ?what have you done for me lately?. When a team burns you, it's so hard to come back on them -- now times that by two. Add the fact offensive coordinator Norv Turner abruptly stepped down this week and this is the lowest we've seen Minnesota's stock since Teddy (Wobbly Balls) Bridgewater went down with a season ending injury. The loss of Turner is no big deal, as his big air offense didn't fit the Vikings system or personality anyway and it just might be a blessing. One of the big talking points this week is that the Vikings are banged up on the offensive line. While that's true, we're not going to dwell on it, as that information is not privy and injuries are always factored into the line.
The perception heading into Week 9 is that the Vikings are a totally one-sided squad that was exposed by the Bears. This might look like a big number for the Vikings to cover but it?s not. It?s small. This one looks like a mismatch and despite their two straight losses, the Vikes still have the top rated defense in the league while the Lions come into this one ranked 26th. Minnesota is also allowing the fewest points against with just 14.9 points per game through seven games. Meanwhile, the Lions are giving up 23.8 pts/game. The Vikings hype train has come to a sudden stop and if you listen closely you can actually hear the broken ankles of bandwagoners jumping ship. That's our cue to step in.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Play: Pittsburgh +2.5
The Ravens and the Steelers are both coming off the bye week and it looks from all reports that BIg Ben will play on Sunday. This game is HUGE for both clubs as the AFC NORTH looks like it will be a dog fight right till the end of the season between these two clubs and the Cincinnati Bengals. After winning their first 3 games of the year the Ravens have dropped their last 4 and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time for them. The problem for the Ravens is that Joe Flacco is not 100% healthy with some shoulder problems. Flacco has 5 TD's to 6 INT on the year and just hasn't looked like the same QB to us all year. We like the Pittsburgh defense in this matchup. The Pittsburgh D has had some trouble stopping the run the last couple of games but going up against one of the worse rushing offenses in the league (last game 11 yards vs the Jets) we see them be able to get the upper hand which will help their passing D as well. Even if Roethlisberger has a set back Landry Jones is more than capable, after seeing action in their last game. With Le'Veon Bell back and looking great and then having the superstar WR Antonio Brown to throw to, we believe the Steelers have the advantage on the home side today. Backing our selection is the fact that the Ravens are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and the fact that the Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Saints vs. 49ers
Play: Over 52
The New Orleans Saints will hit the road for the fourth time looking to secure the team?s fourth win in the last five tries after getting out to an 0-3 start. The San Francisco 49ers will be out to stop the bleeding fresh out of their bye in hopes of snapping a six game overall losing streak and three game home losing streak. All kinds of points could hit the board in Week 9 with the league?s two worst scoring defenses squaring off against one another.
Though the Niners rank No. 7 defending the pass, I think that has more to do with them ranking dead last against the run. Why pass the ball when you can run the rock right down your opponent?s throat? The Saints don?t possess a good rushing attack. Mark Ingram has been an enormous fantasy bust, and was benched last week after fumbling on his third carry. With San Fran conceding 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, look for Brees to look to the air when it matters most.
With San Francisco having nearly two weeks to work on its passing game with Kaepernick taking all the practice snaps, I believe we see a much better passing game in this one. This will likely be a back and forth affair should San Fran actually show up in the second half. Points should come in bunches. While New Orleans has seen its last two overall and two of its three road games play to low scorers, that won?t prevent me from hitting the over in this tilt.
OAKLAND -1? over Denver
A boatload of cash was riding on the Raiders last week as a small favorite in Tampa Bay. Those that bet the Raiders cashed their tickets but not before some beads of sweat dropped to the floor. Oakland must?ve had their backers pulling their hair out while screaming at the TV, as the Raiders committed more penalties in one game than any team in the history of this sport. Anyone that suffered through that victory was not only thrilled and relieved to cash that ticket, but they are not likely to put themselves through that suffering again this week. Surely, a disciplined team like the Broncos, with championship credentials, is not going to lose to an undisciplined team like the Raiders. Furthermore, Oakland still doesn?t have a win against a team with a winning record and they?ve come up short when tested, losing at home to both the Chiefs and Falcons. Derek Carr struggled when he faced Kansas City and the thinking is he?ll have a tough outing against Denver?s vaunted defense. The Broncos haven?t given up more than 23 points in a game all season. Indeed, everything points to a Denver win but we wouldn?t be so quick to jump on that bandwagon. Oakland?s penalty-fest was well documented this past week and now what we have is an overreaction to that. The fact that Oakland won, despite taking so many penalties, on the road no less, counts for something. This now becomes Oakland?s biggest game in a very long time. The Raiders are also difficult to stop with 28 points or more scored in four of their past five games.
Meanwhile, it?s not all talking chipmunks and singing candlesticks in Denver. Trevor Siemian is the second best QB in this game. He has been held to one TD throw or less in every game he?s played in but one. Last week, Siemian threw an interception that turned into a pick-six and lost a fumble. He's never been a game changer and the offense is not improving. The Broncos are winning in spite of Siemian, not because of him and there is a big difference there. The Broncos have been living a charmed life with an easy schedule that includes just one lousy road game since Week 4. That occurred in San Diego, where they Broncs lost 21-13 and looked horrible in doing so. Denver?s last road win was in Tampa Bay.
These Raiders have played five road games already and have not had trouble refreshing, recharging and getting serious about the prospect of beating Denver. Home field looms large and Oakland carries considerable positive momentum in the wake of last week's win and its 6-2 record. The question is whether or not the Raiders are legit. We shall see but we?re betting that the Broncos are very beatable.
Colts at Packers
Pick: Over
Both teams have ace quarterbacks and the Colts come to town with a terrible defense. The Indianapolis pass defense ranks 31st in the league with an average of 288 yards allowed. The secondary figures to be at less than full strength again on Sunday, with safety Mike Adams (groin) and cornerback Vontae Davis (concussion) sitting out Wednesday's practice. The Over is 20-8 in the Colts last 28 road games. Green Bay, which can match injury lists with any team in the league, was without three key members of the secondary (Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins) while getting burned by Matt Ryan and Atlanta's passing attack last week. And the Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Colts (3-5) at Packers (4-3)
No need to overthink this one. The Colts aren?t suddenly going to have a drastic improvement. Maybe their quarterback can play but he too appears out of sorts these days, perhaps from frustration from lack of talent around him. Now Andrew Luck must take to the road for the third time in four weeks and to the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field. Green Bay has lost only one game here this season, that one to high-flying Cowboys. The other three victories have come by an average of 10 points. It?s also the Packers last home game before heading to the road for next three weeks. In hot pursuit of Minnesota and with the passing game resuscitating, a long afternoon could be in store for this nimble visitor. Indy?s secondary is abysmal, ranking 31st in the league and that?s without facing any notable passers with the exception of Philip Rivers. Blowout wouldn?t surprise. TAKING: PACKERS ?7
New Orleans at San Francisco
Play: New Orleans -4
New Orleans is very flawed entry. The Saints have a very prolific offense, but yet again the team is getting hamstrung by a shoddy defense. New Orleans is also not noted for being much of a road team. That makes laying any kind of number with them a bit dicey, even against a bad opponent. Nevertheless, I?m willing to spot some points here with the Saints.
This is pretty clearly a San Francisco fade. The 49ers are a total mess, starting at the very top with what is an increasingly unpopular ownership. There was a time when this was the absolute model franchise in the NFL. But those days are long gone and I don?t think it?s a stretch to offer that aside from the eternally awful Browns, the 49ers might well be the most easy to poke fun at franchise in the entire league.
The 49ers started the season off with a bang, shutting out the Rams 28-0. They have subsequently lost six straight and the closest they?ve come is a touchdown loss at home to Dallas. San Francisco has been outscored by an ugly 103 points in the current 0-6 skid.
I can?t argue with those who might feel this game represents the best chance the 49ers could have to win a game the rest of the way. But I won?t be shocked if San Francisco ends up losing ?em all, and I would absolutely be surprised if they end up with more than three wins overall.
The sieve-like New Orleans defense basically can?t stop anyone, so this is a game where even the impotent SF offense might produce a few scores. But what was supposed to be the strength of the 49ers sure hasn?t been, as they?re actually only marginally better than the Saints on defense. On offense, it?s a blowout on the stats favoring the road team, and I would rate the special teams comparison about even.
I think this is a huge game for New Orleans. A win gets them to 4-4, and they will have life not only in their division, but as a potential wild card. But a loss drops them to 3-5 and with Denver and Carolina on deck, 3-7 becomes a realistic possibility. This team can forget about playing past the regular season finale if that happens, so this is one they assuredly have circled as a must win. I think it?s also a will win, and I?m going ahead and giving the points with the Saints.
JAZZ AT KNICKS
PLAY: JAZZ -1
I like the spot here. Utah got stomped at home on Friday by the Spurs. That was not unexpected to me as they had just gone into San Antonio and pretty much buried the Spurs. Good payback spot for a high end team, and San Antone in revenge was play on material. But the fact Utah got buried should have them looking to rebound here.
The Knicks, meanwhile, were a very impressive winner at Chicago on Friday, and that was a huge game for the New Yorkers. If you watched the game, there was no doubt at all Noah and Rose really wanted to play well against their former team, and the two were all big smiles and more when they left the court together late in the game.
I?m not big on guessing at letdowns, at least not in the pros where emotions aren?t as volatile as they are at the college level. But this has a chance to be a somewhat flat spot for the home team. Additionally, I made this number Utah -2 just on the math, so there?s no offset as far as that goes. I?ll tab the Jazz to start the day off right.
01:00 PM NFL [454] TOTAL u42-110 (DET LIONS vrs MIN VIKINGS)
04:25 PM NFL [468] GB PACKERS -7-115
08:30 PM NFL [471] DEN BRONCOS PK-105
10:35 PM NBA [512] Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 -105
06:05 PM NHL [2] Detroit Red Wings -150
08:05 PM NHL [8] New York Rangers -220
08:05 PM NHL [10] Chicago Blackhawks -160
1 unit bet pays 101 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
N.Y. Jets +3? over MIAMI
An angry Ryan Fitzpatrick is the best Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets have gone 2-0 after trying to bench him in Week 7. Another player left on the scrap heap was running back Matt Forte but he's quietly having a great season. Forte has scored four touchdowns during the Jets' two game winning streak. The Jets' run defense has been solid this season, as they are tied for the league lead, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt. That should serve them well here, as they head to Miami to face a Dolphins squad that has been very run heavy their last two games and if the Fish can?t run, they sure as hell can?t pass either.
The Dolphins had a ton of momentum before heading into the bye. The legend of running back Jay Ajayi only grew as the Fish sat idle. Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards in both of his starts this season and now all eyes are on him, as he tries to set a Super Bowl era record by becoming the first player to rush for over 200 yards in three straight games. The Dolphins have won two straight but those were as a plucky home dog. They are now laying points in a division game, which is a completely different role that they rarely thrive in. We have pointed out two distinct cases of two different teams that were forced to take huge momentum into its bye week and subsequently shit the bed upon returning. The first case was Philadelphia taking its 3-0 record into its bye before losing to Detroit. The second case was Minnesota taking its 5-0 record into its bye week before losing to Philadelphia. Now it?s the Dolphins turn after seemingly turning their season around with huge wins in back-to-back games against the then red-hot Steelers and Bills. Do you remember how pathetic the Dolphins looked in back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Tennessee less than a month ago? That?s the Miami team we expect to see here. It's time to sell.
Jacksonville vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The 2-5 Jags and 5-2 Chiefs meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. No one's quite sure what happened to KC's Alex Smith last Sunday (concussion or not?) but either way, he's being held out of Sunday's game. Nick Foles played well in relief of Smith last Sunday against the Colts, completing 16 of 22 for 223 yards with two TD passes, no interceptions and a QB rating of 135.2. He'll get the start on Sunday.
Jacksonville head coach Gus Bailey fired offensive coordinator Greg Olson two days after losing 36-22 beating at Tennessee in a Week 8 Thursday night game Olson was replaced by QBs coach Nathanial Hackett, the son of former Chiefs offensive coordinator from the 1990s Paul Hackett. Bradley is under mounting pressure, as he's 14-41 as head coach of the Jaguars and his teams are 5-22 on the road the last three-plus seasons.
QB Blake Bortles had a strong season for the struggling Jags last year (4,428 yards with 35 TDs and 18 INTs) but things haven't gone as well in 2016. Concerns about his mechanics prompted a call for help from Adam Dedeaux, who is part of the 3DQB Academy in southern California that's run by former major league pitcher and now quarterback Guru Tom House. "Hopefully, we'll tighten some things up and get back to where I was throwing the ball with efficiency," said Bortles. "When you struggle with what you're supposed to do all the time, you try to fix it as quickly as possible rather than let it get worse."
Maybe Dedeaux can help Bortles but he can't help the team's pathetic running game, averaging a pathetic 72.6 YPG (30th) or a defense allowing 28.0 PPG (26th). KC would rather have Smith at QB than Foles, as the Chiefs have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games under Smith. Yes, Foles is much more prone to turning it over than Smith but note that the Jacksonville defense hasn't forced a single turnover in its last three games. Foles has experience in Andy Reid?s offense from their time together in Philadelphia and I'm going to lay the points with the Chiefs.
Philadelphia (+2.5) over New York
I don't like the Giants as a favorite here. Don't buy in to the fact that this team is 4-3 or that they are coming off their bye. The Giants offense is basic and boring, and that is truly disappointing with the talent that they have on that side of the football. Ben McAdoo and his coaching staff are letting this team down as they have the ability to be considerably better. The Eagles defense will give the Giants fits in this game as they will have Eli forcing throws all day long. The Giants seem to be too stubborn to move their wideouts around, and until they do so they won't be able to compete with the better teams in the NFL. The Giants running game is inept. They haven't averaged more than three yards per carry in their last three games. The Eagles defense is one of the best in the NFL in points per game/against, and that will prove very beneficial in this game. Look for the Eagles to win this game outright 24-20.
Jaguars (2-5) at Chiefs (5-2)
Not eager to endorse the Chiefs in this price range but happy to fade these useless Jaguars as they continue to falter week in and week out. No seat is hotter than Gus Bradley?s at the moment, however not much figures to change as there are no valid excuses for Jacksonville?s poor play other than incompetence. Kansas City is on a three-game win streak, two of those contests coming on the road. While KC has significant injuries on offence, its defence has managed to stop Derek Carr, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck on current run so slowing down inadequate Blake Bortles shouldn?t be much of a challenge. KC can ill afford to look past a visitor such as this one as its decent 5-2 mark still has them sitting third in competitive AFC West. The Jags have just two wins in past 19 road games and there?s little evidence of that changing. TAKING: CHIEFS ?7?
Eagles (4-3) at Giants (4-3)
Very comfortable taking points with defensively sound Eagles, especially against erratic division foe such as these Giants. Philadelphia is not only 3-1 versus spread when receiving points this season but are also 3-1 straight up in same games. The only blemish was an unjust one when Dallas scored a major in overtime last week, the Eagles +4 but losing by six. The Giants may be feeling a false sense of security after being off for two weeks after defeating the Rams over in England. That game saw Los Angeles QB Case Keenum at his unreliable best with four interceptions but the G-Men only able to manage a 17-10 triumph despite all of LA?s miscues. These two know each other all too well as the visitor has fared well in series, able to cover in 15 of the previous 22 encounters. We prefer the points offered, complemented by the better defensive squad. TAKING: EAGLES +2?
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
Blake Bortles is the practice squad superstar throwing for 337 yards and 3 TDs last week in a blowout?loss to the Titans last Thursday night. While B-squared?s numbers are a facade, what is for real is the Jaguars defense which is holding opponents to under 44% success rate offensively and a 7th ranked yards per play allowed of 5.2 yards. On the other side of the ball the Chiefs new QB1, Nick Foles, looked great in spot duty last week, going 16-22 for 233 and 2 TDs. With Alex Smith in concussion protocol, the Chiefs may find that Foles is an upgrade at the QB position as he is someone who takes more sacks, but also more deep shots. Foles grades out slightly below Smith because of his terrible time with the Rams (in which he averaged 5.6 NYPP), although in the right system he has produced numbers that do far exceed Captain Checkdowns (6.9 NYPP for Foles vs. 6.2 NYPP for Smith). The Chiefs are 5-2 and the Jags are 2-5 and a big part is not the peripheral stats each team has put up, but the turnover differential as the Chiefs are +9 and Jags -8.
In what was initially a Jags Best Bet at +9.5 against Alex Smith, but with the Chiefs getting a possible upgrade in QB with Nick Foles and the line shrinking to +7.5 the advanced stats model now makes the Jaguars (+7.5) a Strong Opinion and UNDER (44) a Strong Opinion.
Cowboys vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8?
Well, we are at the half-way point in the season and the Browns have yet to win a game (0-8 ) and the Cowboys (6-1) are running away from everyone in their division. And running is the key with Ezekiel Elliott and their offense works with rookie Dak Prescott heading the offense. Dallas was very fortunate to escape with an overtime won against the Eagles last Sunday and next week they have Pittsburgh on deck. I believe Dallas can't help but look ahead at the Steelers and sleep walk through this contest.
MINNESOTA -6 over Detroit
The Lions are a mess. The Matt Stafford MVP talk is completely crazy but it's not often the Lions get national attention for something positive, so we'll take this opportunity to capitalize on it. Detroit has won three out of four but all of those victories came at home. On the road this season, Detroit has been a low percentage play with just one win and one cover in four tries and no wins or covers in its last three. The Lions have also failed to cover in both of their division games this year. Their defense hasn't stopped anybody this season and they've made average quarterbacks like Brock Osweiler and Case Keenum look like All-Pros.
The Vikings were a popular choice on Monday night against the Bears and that game was another great example of why it's so dangerous to lay points on the road in a prime time division game. Minny was also the overwhelming choice in Philadelphia the week prior so they've let its many backers down two weeks in a row after starting the season 5-0. We often preach stepping in when most are jumping off, as this is a ?what have you done for me lately?. When a team burns you, it's so hard to come back on them -- now times that by two. Add the fact offensive coordinator Norv Turner abruptly stepped down this week and this is the lowest we've seen Minnesota's stock since Teddy (Wobbly Balls) Bridgewater went down with a season ending injury. The loss of Turner is no big deal, as his big air offense didn't fit the Vikings system or personality anyway and it just might be a blessing. One of the big talking points this week is that the Vikings are banged up on the offensive line. While that's true, we're not going to dwell on it, as that information is not privy and injuries are always factored into the line.
The perception heading into Week 9 is that the Vikings are a totally one-sided squad that was exposed by the Bears. This might look like a big number for the Vikings to cover but it?s not. It?s small. This one looks like a mismatch and despite their two straight losses, the Vikes still have the top rated defense in the league while the Lions come into this one ranked 26th. Minnesota is also allowing the fewest points against with just 14.9 points per game through seven games. Meanwhile, the Lions are giving up 23.8 pts/game. The Vikings hype train has come to a sudden stop and if you listen closely you can actually hear the broken ankles of bandwagoners jumping ship. That's our cue to step in.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Play: Pittsburgh +2.5
The Ravens and the Steelers are both coming off the bye week and it looks from all reports that BIg Ben will play on Sunday. This game is HUGE for both clubs as the AFC NORTH looks like it will be a dog fight right till the end of the season between these two clubs and the Cincinnati Bengals. After winning their first 3 games of the year the Ravens have dropped their last 4 and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time for them. The problem for the Ravens is that Joe Flacco is not 100% healthy with some shoulder problems. Flacco has 5 TD's to 6 INT on the year and just hasn't looked like the same QB to us all year. We like the Pittsburgh defense in this matchup. The Pittsburgh D has had some trouble stopping the run the last couple of games but going up against one of the worse rushing offenses in the league (last game 11 yards vs the Jets) we see them be able to get the upper hand which will help their passing D as well. Even if Roethlisberger has a set back Landry Jones is more than capable, after seeing action in their last game. With Le'Veon Bell back and looking great and then having the superstar WR Antonio Brown to throw to, we believe the Steelers have the advantage on the home side today. Backing our selection is the fact that the Ravens are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and the fact that the Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Saints vs. 49ers
Play: Over 52
The New Orleans Saints will hit the road for the fourth time looking to secure the team?s fourth win in the last five tries after getting out to an 0-3 start. The San Francisco 49ers will be out to stop the bleeding fresh out of their bye in hopes of snapping a six game overall losing streak and three game home losing streak. All kinds of points could hit the board in Week 9 with the league?s two worst scoring defenses squaring off against one another.
Though the Niners rank No. 7 defending the pass, I think that has more to do with them ranking dead last against the run. Why pass the ball when you can run the rock right down your opponent?s throat? The Saints don?t possess a good rushing attack. Mark Ingram has been an enormous fantasy bust, and was benched last week after fumbling on his third carry. With San Fran conceding 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, look for Brees to look to the air when it matters most.
With San Francisco having nearly two weeks to work on its passing game with Kaepernick taking all the practice snaps, I believe we see a much better passing game in this one. This will likely be a back and forth affair should San Fran actually show up in the second half. Points should come in bunches. While New Orleans has seen its last two overall and two of its three road games play to low scorers, that won?t prevent me from hitting the over in this tilt.
OAKLAND -1? over Denver
A boatload of cash was riding on the Raiders last week as a small favorite in Tampa Bay. Those that bet the Raiders cashed their tickets but not before some beads of sweat dropped to the floor. Oakland must?ve had their backers pulling their hair out while screaming at the TV, as the Raiders committed more penalties in one game than any team in the history of this sport. Anyone that suffered through that victory was not only thrilled and relieved to cash that ticket, but they are not likely to put themselves through that suffering again this week. Surely, a disciplined team like the Broncos, with championship credentials, is not going to lose to an undisciplined team like the Raiders. Furthermore, Oakland still doesn?t have a win against a team with a winning record and they?ve come up short when tested, losing at home to both the Chiefs and Falcons. Derek Carr struggled when he faced Kansas City and the thinking is he?ll have a tough outing against Denver?s vaunted defense. The Broncos haven?t given up more than 23 points in a game all season. Indeed, everything points to a Denver win but we wouldn?t be so quick to jump on that bandwagon. Oakland?s penalty-fest was well documented this past week and now what we have is an overreaction to that. The fact that Oakland won, despite taking so many penalties, on the road no less, counts for something. This now becomes Oakland?s biggest game in a very long time. The Raiders are also difficult to stop with 28 points or more scored in four of their past five games.
Meanwhile, it?s not all talking chipmunks and singing candlesticks in Denver. Trevor Siemian is the second best QB in this game. He has been held to one TD throw or less in every game he?s played in but one. Last week, Siemian threw an interception that turned into a pick-six and lost a fumble. He's never been a game changer and the offense is not improving. The Broncos are winning in spite of Siemian, not because of him and there is a big difference there. The Broncos have been living a charmed life with an easy schedule that includes just one lousy road game since Week 4. That occurred in San Diego, where they Broncs lost 21-13 and looked horrible in doing so. Denver?s last road win was in Tampa Bay.
These Raiders have played five road games already and have not had trouble refreshing, recharging and getting serious about the prospect of beating Denver. Home field looms large and Oakland carries considerable positive momentum in the wake of last week's win and its 6-2 record. The question is whether or not the Raiders are legit. We shall see but we?re betting that the Broncos are very beatable.
Colts at Packers
Pick: Over
Both teams have ace quarterbacks and the Colts come to town with a terrible defense. The Indianapolis pass defense ranks 31st in the league with an average of 288 yards allowed. The secondary figures to be at less than full strength again on Sunday, with safety Mike Adams (groin) and cornerback Vontae Davis (concussion) sitting out Wednesday's practice. The Over is 20-8 in the Colts last 28 road games. Green Bay, which can match injury lists with any team in the league, was without three key members of the secondary (Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins) while getting burned by Matt Ryan and Atlanta's passing attack last week. And the Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Colts (3-5) at Packers (4-3)
No need to overthink this one. The Colts aren?t suddenly going to have a drastic improvement. Maybe their quarterback can play but he too appears out of sorts these days, perhaps from frustration from lack of talent around him. Now Andrew Luck must take to the road for the third time in four weeks and to the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field. Green Bay has lost only one game here this season, that one to high-flying Cowboys. The other three victories have come by an average of 10 points. It?s also the Packers last home game before heading to the road for next three weeks. In hot pursuit of Minnesota and with the passing game resuscitating, a long afternoon could be in store for this nimble visitor. Indy?s secondary is abysmal, ranking 31st in the league and that?s without facing any notable passers with the exception of Philip Rivers. Blowout wouldn?t surprise. TAKING: PACKERS ?7
New Orleans at San Francisco
Play: New Orleans -4
New Orleans is very flawed entry. The Saints have a very prolific offense, but yet again the team is getting hamstrung by a shoddy defense. New Orleans is also not noted for being much of a road team. That makes laying any kind of number with them a bit dicey, even against a bad opponent. Nevertheless, I?m willing to spot some points here with the Saints.
This is pretty clearly a San Francisco fade. The 49ers are a total mess, starting at the very top with what is an increasingly unpopular ownership. There was a time when this was the absolute model franchise in the NFL. But those days are long gone and I don?t think it?s a stretch to offer that aside from the eternally awful Browns, the 49ers might well be the most easy to poke fun at franchise in the entire league.
The 49ers started the season off with a bang, shutting out the Rams 28-0. They have subsequently lost six straight and the closest they?ve come is a touchdown loss at home to Dallas. San Francisco has been outscored by an ugly 103 points in the current 0-6 skid.
I can?t argue with those who might feel this game represents the best chance the 49ers could have to win a game the rest of the way. But I won?t be shocked if San Francisco ends up losing ?em all, and I would absolutely be surprised if they end up with more than three wins overall.
The sieve-like New Orleans defense basically can?t stop anyone, so this is a game where even the impotent SF offense might produce a few scores. But what was supposed to be the strength of the 49ers sure hasn?t been, as they?re actually only marginally better than the Saints on defense. On offense, it?s a blowout on the stats favoring the road team, and I would rate the special teams comparison about even.
I think this is a huge game for New Orleans. A win gets them to 4-4, and they will have life not only in their division, but as a potential wild card. But a loss drops them to 3-5 and with Denver and Carolina on deck, 3-7 becomes a realistic possibility. This team can forget about playing past the regular season finale if that happens, so this is one they assuredly have circled as a must win. I think it?s also a will win, and I?m going ahead and giving the points with the Saints.
JAZZ AT KNICKS
PLAY: JAZZ -1
I like the spot here. Utah got stomped at home on Friday by the Spurs. That was not unexpected to me as they had just gone into San Antonio and pretty much buried the Spurs. Good payback spot for a high end team, and San Antone in revenge was play on material. But the fact Utah got buried should have them looking to rebound here.
The Knicks, meanwhile, were a very impressive winner at Chicago on Friday, and that was a huge game for the New Yorkers. If you watched the game, there was no doubt at all Noah and Rose really wanted to play well against their former team, and the two were all big smiles and more when they left the court together late in the game.
I?m not big on guessing at letdowns, at least not in the pros where emotions aren?t as volatile as they are at the college level. But this has a chance to be a somewhat flat spot for the home team. Additionally, I made this number Utah -2 just on the math, so there?s no offset as far as that goes. I?ll tab the Jazz to start the day off right.
