1:00 PM NFL [252] JAX JAGUARS PK-150 (B+2)
1:00 PM NFL [259] TOTAL o47.5 -150 (B+2) (ATL FALCONS vrs PHI EAGLES)
1:00 PM NFL [263] GB PACKERS -1-175 (B+2)
4:25 PM NFL [272] TOTAL u52-150 (B+2) (DAL COWBOYS vrs PIT STEELERS)
3:35 PM NBA [701] Charlotte Hornets +10-150 (B+2)
2:00 PM CBB [713] Eastern Michigan +15-145 (B+2)
2:00 PM CBB Added Game [744] Siena -14.5 -110
2:05 PM NHL [51] Los Angeles Kings -105
4:05 PM NHL [53] Dallas Stars -130
1 unit bet pays 134 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Chiefs vs. Panthers
Play: Panthers -3
From a scheduling stand point, we think this is a very strong play. The Panthers entered their bye-week sitting at 1-5, but have come out on the other side with two straight wins, including a 13-10 effort over the Rams last Sunday. With a big game against rival New Orleans next week, we?re expecting the home side to be extremely focused on the task at hand. Despite the slow start, the NFC South is still up for grabs and the Panthers will be looking to keep the momentum rolling. Meanwhile the Chiefs come to town off four straight wins, including a satisfying victory at home over Jacksonville last week. All signs point to a classic letdown spot for the visitors in our opinion.
Pittsburgh -2.5
My line for this game is 6.5....If ever the Cowboys would have a stumble letdown game, this would be the one....Cowboys have been very good this year, but I worry about the level of competition they have faced this year overall.....They haven't had a true test on the road with a team with a good offense and good defense IMO...Yes they played the Packers and won, but GB is in a real funk...I'm not taking anything away from Dallas, but I feel the schedule was loaded with a bunch of teams with losing records or piss poor defenses...This is a real test for the Cowboys and Pitt now has their backs up against the wall..That usually spells disaster for a team against Pitt..Plus they are at home and coming off a 3rd loss..Big Ben will be back in the saddle again and the Steelers offense last week looked like it was stuck in mud....This is a typical god spot though for the Steelers..They seem to beat the good teams and struggle with teams they should beat...Preskott has been very good, but I feel we might just see that clunker game from him..Pitt has a pretty good rush defense and if they can limited Elliot from having a big game, it will be on the shoulders of Preskott on the road..I don't like the situation for the Cowboys...Big Ben will have his legs under him for this game after a week of practice once again..I feel this line is very short and needing only 3 or more to get us the win looks good...7-1 record for Dallas is very sharp, but I feel that record is baked into this incorrect line....I got this one Pitt 31-20
San Francisco at Arizona
Play: Under 48
These two met in San Francisco on a Thursday night back in Week 5, with the Cardinals earning the 33-21 victory. The quarterback matchup in that first meeting was Blaine Gabbert versus Drew Stanton. This game will feature a QB matchup of Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer.
In that Week 5 meeting, the 49ers defense had absolutely no answer for Cardinals running back David Johnson, who torched the Niner D for 157 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The pitiful 49ers defense will make stopping Johnson a priority, but I doubt it will matter.
The betting public will see the 54 points scored in the first meeting (Gabbert/Stanton), consider the porous 49ers defense, and look to bet the Over with Palmer now back under center for Arizona. And let?s face it, the public doesn?t need much incentive to bet Overs. I think that?s a mistake here.
One aspect the public probably won?t consider is the stout Arizona defense. Take away the game against New England in the season opener, and Arizona has allowed just 8.25 points per game at home this season.
I expect Arizona to once again feature David Johnson. That keeps the clock moving. The 49ers offense may have looked good against the Saints last Sunday, but there?s a wide gap between the Saints defense and this Arizona stop unit.
I can see Arizona winning in a blowout, but I hate laying double digits in the NFL. A wide margin should lead to a clock-burning fourth quarter. These games usually end up being dog & Over or favorite & Under. Since I expect the chalk to roll here but don?t wish to lay the heavy lumber, I see the total as the better play.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -13.5
The Arizona Cardinals come out of their bye week in serious trouble, and the playoffs look at little out of reach. Today they look to get a win streak going and get on a run to try and make the playoffs. Who better to get it started with than the SF 49ers. The 49ers have really looked awful since winning their first game of the year. In their last 4 games they have given up 33,45,34 and 41 points respectively. The Cardinals put up 33 last time in San Francisco and that was with Drew Stanton at QB. Actually both teams will have different QB's today with Colin Kaepernick replacing Blaine Gabbert for SF. Kaeparnick still isn't the same guy he was when he took the 49ers to the Super Bowl. The last time he played in Arizona it was a nightmare for him as the Cardinals beat the 49ers 47-7. We see a Cardinal team desperate to make a statement taking out their frustrations against the lowly 49ers. The line is 13 1/2 at the time of this writing. We normally would not lay these many points at anytime but the situation today has us very comfortable in doing so. We see another blowout in Arizona today.
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -3
Make no mistake, the Chiefs have been winning because of a plus 13 turnover margin. Is that sustainable? Not likely. Last year Kansas City ended the year +14, but the prior year it had a -3 deficit. KC was +18 in 2013, but -24 the prior season. So you can tell that turnovers for the most part are random, especially fumbles. Digging deeper we find that the Chiefs this year are 6-2 on the season, but are just 4-4 when looking at yards per play statistics. When KC fails to win the turnover battle it is 0-3 on the season.
The Panthers are just 3-5 on the year, and 4-4 in yards per play analysis. When looking at explosive plays Carolina has an advantage of three on the season vs the Chiefs. The big key is turnover margin in which KC has a whopping 19 advantage over Carolina. As we know that type of edge is not sustainable, which gives us a solid play here on the Panthers.
Broncos vs. Saints
Play: Broncos +3
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here on the Broncos after their loss to the Raiders last week. This is still a very good Denver team and I don't think they should be catching a field goal against the Saints. New Orleans was a dog in their last two home games against the Panthers and Seahawks. While they won both, that just shows you the value we are getting here with Denver. The Broncos offense should be able to help the defense in this one, as the Saints are atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. This is a big bounce back game for Denver and I expect them to deliver with a big road win here. Broncos are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 after a SU loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 350 or more total yards in their previous game.
Broncos vs. Saints
Play: Broncos +3
We expect a nice bounce back from Denver here after a very poor performance on Sunday Night last week. They were beaten 30-20 by Oakland and the defense, which is still ranked as the 2nd most efficient in the NFL, was run all over for 218 rushing yards. The 30 points was by far the most Denver has given up this year (23 was most prior to last week) and you can bet this experienced unit was embarrassed by their performance. They face a different type of offense this year. Even though they ran for a pile of yards last week vs a terrible San Fran defense, New Orleans isn?t a great running team. They normally rely heavily on the arm of Drew Brees which plays right into Denver?s strength as they are #1 in the NFL in passing YPG allowed, QB completion rate, and yards allowed per pass attempt. The Denver offense should play well against a Saint defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. New Orleans is just 2-2 at home this year with their wins coming to the wire with margins of 3 & 5 points. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS the last 8 times as an underdog winning 6 of those games outright. We feel we?re getting the better team, as a 3-point dog, and motivated off a terrible performance on national TV.
49ers vs. Cardinals
Play: 49ers +14
OMG not again. I just can't believe that I am coming back with San Francisco after the way they fail 'ME' last week against the Saints. Colin Kaepernick doesn't stand for the National Anthem, vote in our elections or even know how to throw a forward pass with any touch at all. Okay, we know the Niners limitations but the over-rated Arizona squad is without a number of key personnel and just don't have what it takes to grab the brass ring. With this generous (by NFL standards) points the 49ers can stay within the spread margin.
Texans vs. Jaguars
Play: Texans +2.5
I don?t know how you take the Jaguars right now. They outgained an injury depleted KC team on the road by more than 200 yards. Yet still found a way to lose and it could have been worse had the Chiefs not had to settle for 4 field goals.
Houston isn?t a team that I like a lot, but I feel the price is right here with them getting points against an inferior opponentl. I think some of the reason we are seeing a small line, is because Houston is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road. However, that?s a misleading stat. The Texans 3 road games have come against the Patriots, Vikings and Broncos.
One thing Houston has been able to do is take care of business against bad teams. I don?t think there?s any arguing that Jacksonville is not good. Prior to the loss to the Chiefs, they lost 16-33 at home to the Raiders and 22-36 at the Titans.
Typically we expect a team like the Jaguars to show value after such a bad start. I don?t know that will be the case this time around. Jacksonville was getting all kinds of hype coming into season and I think the players believed in it. It?s a lot easier to finish strong when there?s no expectations. I see the struggles continuing.
This is also not a game the Texans can afford to lose if they want to win the division. In their next four they host the Raiders and Chargers and go to Green Bay and Indianapolis. I don?t think it would surprise anyone if they lost all 4 of those, making this one that much more important.
Another huge key here is that Houston is coming off a bye. That gives them an even bigger edge here. You also have to look at how they have dominated this series. The Texans have won each of the last 4 meetings with Jacksonville, with 3 of the 4 wins coming by double-digits.
Houston @ Jacksonville
Pick: Over 42
Many thought this would be the season that the Jacksonville Jaguars would turn the corner, perhaps even contending for a playoff spot in the weak AFC South. Instead its playing out like so many of the recent Jaguars' seasons... another loser. The Jags have not had a winning record in eight seasons, and they appear to be headed for their ninth loser n a row after starting the season 2-6. Despite the bad news, this team has made some progress in the running game. They have been slightly above average in generating 4.3 yards per carry vs. a schedule of teams that average allowing 4.1. Jacksonville's defense has allowed 26.9 points per game this season while Houston's has allowed 28.3 points per game on the road. The weakness in the Houston defense has been against the run where they allow 4.4 yards per carry vs. teams that average just 4.0. The Jaguars churned out a season high 205 yards on the ground last week, and it did help the passing game as they threw for 244 yards as well. The problem for Jacksonville was not moving the ball, it was four turnovers that held them to just 14 points. And, that is where we find the value in this one. Houston has run for over 400 yards themselves over the last three games, and should find some room in this game. Jacksonville is 35-20 to the OVER in their last 55 games after outgaining their last opponent by 100 yards or more. In their last 16 games vs. losing teams, the Texans are 11-5 to the OVER.
JACKSONVILLE -2? over Houston
The Texans are coming off their bye and for an offense with no rhythm or consistency, an offensive improvement is not likely at all. The Texans are winless on the road. Their tenure at the top of the AFC South may be closing soon considering they have four away venues over the next five games. The offense continues to struggle both rushing and passing while the defense mostly steps up in home games. The Texans record has been propped up entirely by home wins over average or worse teams. That this group of dregs are in first place and has more wins than losses is a true testament to how weak and pathetic the AFC South is. Brock Osweiler?s confidence has to be ravaged with half of a season of poor play after being the pricey free agent addition in the offseason. Osweiler only totals nine touchdowns on the year with nine interceptions. Houston ranks 30th in passing offense. Worse yet are his four games with under 200 yards and the fact that he's played in three road games and has managed one touchdown from those games combined. He also never passed for more than 196 yards in an away game. Given the choice between Brock Osweiler and anyone else in the league that is playing or sitting on the bench as a backup, we would not choose Osweiler.
The Jaguars lost 19-14 in Kansas City but they were the better team throughout. If you had the Chiefs in your survivor pool, you dodged a massive bullet. The Jags outgained K.C. in total yardage 449 to 231 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That's why it's so hard to back a team like Jacksonville. Even when they are the better team, Blake Bortles is a turnover factory and the team keeps finding ways to lose. The Jags have a disappointing 2-6 record but one has to trust they are on the verge. Teams? like Jacksonville, with talent and potential, often play their best when it matters least. The Jags aren?t out of it yet but with two wins in eight tries, their expectations have fallen dramatically. Jacksonville?s defense has been a highlight this season, as they are a top 10 unit heading into Week 10. That figures to bode well against Osweiler.
Here?s what we know for sure; The Jags have the superior QB and it?s not close. The Texans are worse than Jacksonville but have a better record based on ?in-game variances?. Houston has not won a road game yet. Lastly, Houston swept the Jaguars last year and a team as bad as they are should never beat its equal or better three times in a row. Just hold onto the ball and this should not be a difficult game for the host, who sit just three games back of these visiting dregs and play them twice more. Whenever the Texans are on the road, they should be offered more points than this, which is our cue to move in hard.
Denver +127 over NEW ORLEANS
The Broncos fell 30-20 on Sunday Night Football to the Raiders. These high profile prime time games almost always receive the biggest overreactions because of the attention they receive and because of the millions that watched. What they saw was that Denver dug a deep hole early and could not recover. It was an emotional night for the Raiders, as Oakland hosted their first Sunday night game in over a decade. Despite the loss, the Broncos are still 6-3. They may not have the same pedigree without Peyton Manning at quarterback but Trevor Siemian has filled in admirably. He?s not flashy but does have 10 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He?s also put up over 275 yards passing the last two games. Siemian is trending in the right direction and he could have his biggest game of the year against a Saints team that has a hard time stopping anything.
The Saints have won four of their last five games after crushing the 49ers, 41-23. They are now 4-4 after a 0-3 start. The Saints offense is putting up big points but their defense has played poorly by allowing 20 points or more in their last six games. The Saints can?t stop the pass. They?re giving up a league worst 300 yards per game through the air. It doesn?t get much better on the ground either where the opposition is racking up 108.5 yards per game. More than all of that however, is that New Orleans? stock is up after covering five straight games but there is nothing but holes in their game. Three of its four wins could have gone either way. Its only dominating victory was over the ?Niners, a team that is a total mess. The Saints have put up big offensive numbers against some of the worst defenses in the league (49ers, Falcons, Raiders, Chargers) so their offensive rankings and numbers are skewed The old adage says a ?good defense beats a good offense?. Those old adages have been around for a very long time because they are true and we?ll happily put it to the test here. Broncs outright is the call.
TENNESSEE +136 over Green Bay
The Packers found out what happens when you try to use a receiver at running back in their 31-26 home loss to the Colts. The Packers were flat out of the gate and the final score actually flatters them. We rarely discuss injuries because they are figured into the line but this is one of those rare exceptions that the injuries are being overlooked because it is a brand name versus a no-name. The Packers IR is loaded and the replacement players are a misfit collection of undrafted college free agents. Their highly touted run defense is a shell of what it was earlier in the season. The Packers defense has been exposed in recent weeks by giving up big points to the Lions, Cowboys, Falcons and Colts. Green Bay is now 4-4 after losing three of their last four games. They are banged up, they?re in poor form and they head out on a three game road trip.
The Titans lost a 43-35 shootout in San Diego last Sunday. Despite the loss, the Titans put up 413 yards of total offense including over 300 yards passing from Marcus Mariota. Turnovers sunk the Titans but there's a lot to like about them and they?re still very much under the radar. Tennessee has the third-ranked running game in the league and that's bad news for the banged up Packers D. When you can run in this league it makes a huge difference in opening up the passing game. A balanced offense is one no team wants to face and these Packers are completely ill-equipped right now. By contrast, the Packers non-existent running game should allow this Tennesse defensive unit to focus on shutting down Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have been favored on the road one other time this season and that was in Week 1 in Jacksonville where they barely covered 3? points. Green Bay was healthy then. In its current form, Green Bay cannot be favored on the road against an opponent on the rise like this one. The Titans offense is in great form, as the points have been up sharply for the last five games and in a game that actually favors the Titans in so many ways, we must play the value and take them to win outright.
NEW ENGLAND -7? over Seattle
We?re going to wait until Sunday to pull the trigger on this one because we anticipate the number dropping by then. After all, it?s not often that a team like Seattle is being offered points like this and the market is likely going to eat those points up. Not us, as we?ll gladly swallow them and here?s why: The Seahawks defense has allowed over 24 points in three of the last four games and the offense has become completely devoid of a rushing attack. The passing offense - when it works - is still little more than pitch-and-catch with Jimmy Graham and something that simple is not going to work against the best prepped team in the business. After a prime time game last week, the Seahawks have less time to prepare for a cross country trip for another prime time game. The Seahawks 5-2-1 record is a farce. The last time we saw them on the road in prime time was in a 6-6 tie against Arizona three weeks ago when they should?ve lost by 28. In the great words of Dennis Green, ?The Patriots will not let them off the hook?.
Before we get into the Patriots, let us take you back to last week?s prime time game against Buffalo. The NFL is losing customers (viewers) because the product is getting worse every year. Words like rigged, biased, a hoax and fixed are being thrown around more than ever. Fans and bettors are getting fed up with this product. This year?s ratings are way down from previous years, especially in prime time games. Well, once again, the Seahawks were the beneficiaries of some horrible officiating last week that had Twitter in an uproar and most of the venom was being thrown at the poor officiating in Seattle?s favor. The miscarriage of justice (an understatement) to the Bills was trending for at least an hour afterward all over Twitter and we can assure you that Roger Goddell and his office was watching and taking notice. The emphasis this week will be to tone it down big time. In other words, do not expect the Seahawks to get many calls their way. That?s just another obstacle this intruder will have to deal with.
Bill Belichick is in a league by himself. No other coach even comes close to having his troops? ready the way he does week in and week out season after season after season. These other idiots have no clue what is happening on the field. They?re all too busy trying to figure out the next play or the next sequence as it happens with no regard given to situations, time on clock or anything else. Bill Belichick is like a chess grandmaster playing an advanced player because he?s 10 moves ahead of everyone else. Tom Brady is even more passionate. Just four weeks into the season for Brady and he already has thrown 12 touchdowns and topped 300 yards three times. In true Brady fashion, he's relying on different receivers for a big game every week and still has yet to turn the ball over. At home, he's been worth three touchdowns and over 300 yards every game. These are not even games anymore for the Patriots. These are glorified practices that they dominate and while they have the occasional hiccup from time to time, that hiccup is unlikely to occur against a team they hate as much as Seattle or a team they want to defeat more.
Houston vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Jacksonville
The 5-3 Houston Texans welcomed the team's bye in Week 9 and return to the field on Sunday hoping to maintain their spot atop the AFC South with a road victory over the 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars. The last-place Jaguars (also AFC South) are trying to avoid a fourth consecutive loss. The Jaguars have been plagued by turnovers during their three-game skid, committing eight while failing to record a single takeaway. Houston opened the season 2-0 but has split six games since but with no other AFC South team above .500, the team has a chance to possibly start pulling away with a few wins in a row.
Jacksonville would be a good place to start, as the Jags are 0-3 at home to open the 2016 season and overall, head coach Gus Bradley is only 14-42 (.250) in his fourth season at Jacksonville. How ?hot? has his ?seat? become? Houston hit the midway point of the season 1 1/2 games ahead of Indianapolis and Tennessee in the AFC South. QB Brock Osweiler has been inconsistent at best, completing 59.3 percent with nine TDs and nine INTs. His QB rating of 73.1 is hardly what Houston expected when it signed him to a big FA deal during the off-season. Houston ranks 30th in passing YPG (199.2), causing the team to rank 30th in total offense as well (313.2 YPG) and most troubling of all, just 30th in scoring at 17.1 PPG. The defense obviously misses J.J. Watt but it?s been respectable, allowing 20.9 PPG (11th) and fifth in total defense (316.2 YPG).
Blake Bortles leads the Jacksonville offense but his numbers are down from last year, when he threw 35 TD passes (18 INTs), averaged 276.8 YPG passing with an 88.2 QB rating. Halfway through the 2016 season he?s got 14 TD passes (10 INTs) and is averaging 256.3 YPG with an 80.2 QB rating. He?s rarely been helped by his running game, as before last Sunday?s outburst in Kansas City, the Jags entered that contest averaging 72.6 YPG on the ground. However, Jacksonville is coming off its best offensive output of the year thanks to a season-high 205 rushing yards against the Chiefs. Jacksonville outgained KC 449-231 in yards, as well as 25-10 in FDs but the Jags could only score 14 points and still lost!
Chris Ivory (107 yards) led the resurgent ground game and could continue to see a greater share of the work than T.J. Yeldon, while QB Blake Bortles racked up 54 rushing yards last week but remains inconsistent in the passing game. The Jaguars also turned in their best defensive effort of the year against Kansas City but they haven?t forced a turnover since Week 4 against Indianapolis. However, maybe Houston is the right opponent at the right time? The Texans have failed to record 300 total yards of offense in three of their last four games and four of their last six. Houston?s forced just six turnovers (three interceptions and three fumble recoveries), with only Jacksonville's five takeaways (three interceptions and two fumble recoveries) being fewer this season. The Texans are tied for 29th at minus-7 in the TO margin department and the Jaguars (2-6) are last at minus-12.
These teams are at opposite ends of the division standings but Houston head coach Bill O?Brien is quick to note the Jaguars have three losses by five points or fewer, including last week?s 19-14 defeat at Kansas City. ?They?ve had some very, very close games,? O?Brien told reporters. ?They?ve lost some close games like (last week). Very close. They?ve won a couple of close games. We know that this is going to be a very, very difficult challenge for us in Jacksonville.? I believe Houston fans should heed O'Brien's warning and stay away from the Texans in this one. Jacksonville gets a rare win.
THE BEST BETS
Texans (5-3) at Jaguars (2-6)
As poor as the Jaguars appear to be, we?re willing to take this leap of faith. The timing seems right: Jacksonville is home for only the second time in its past six games. The four road games prior to today included a trip to London, an away win in Chicago, at Tennessee on a short week and then last week?s defeat at Kansas City. The latest loss saw the Jags outgain the Chiefs 449-231 while amassing 25 first downs to 10 for their host. Three lost fumbles and an interception did the Jags in on that day. Most notable is the sudden surge to a lethargic offence after Nathaniel Hackett replaced offensive coordinator Greg Olson. RB Chris Ivory cracked the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time and he could be effective against Houston?s 28th-ranked run defence. As mistake prone as Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has been, he?s still better than an inept Brock Osweiler as Houston?s quarterback has as many touchdown passes as interceptions (nine) and he has yet to win on the road this year in his new uniform. TAKING: JAGUARS -1?
Dolphins (4-4) at Chargers (4-5)
Chargers came through for us in this space last week as a favourite in a similar price range. But loyalties are temporary when it comes to picking against pointspreads and as a result, we won?t feel guilty when fading the Bolts this weekend. San Diego is known for playing close games, uncanny really. Even when scoring 43 last week and winning by eight, the Titans were knocking on the door near the end. Eight of nine San Diego games this season have been decided by one possession. It?s hard to imagine that a red-hot Miami team can?t stay close here or win this one outright. The Dolphins have improved greatly since the emergence of RB Jay Ajayi and not coincidently since Miami?s O-line has been back to full strength. Ajayi?s production and workload has taken pressure of QB Ryan Tannehill as the current three-game win streak has not included an interception. Fins should get some passing opportunities against San Diego?s iffy secondary. The Fish are 0-3 on road but that was at New England, Seattle and then Cincy on a short week. TAKING: DOLPHINS +4
Seahawks (5-2-1) at Patriots (7-1)
At least the schedule maker likes the Patriots, for this week anyway. Not only do the Seahawks have to fly all the way east on a short week to play the league?s top team, they arrive in New England with the Pats having had an extra week to prepare for their arrival. While many references will be made to the cliff-hanger Super Bowl that these two played in just two seasons ago, it will have no bearing on this contest. New England is equal or stronger than that group while the same can?t be said of the Seahawks. Seattle?s defence remains stellar, but stopping Tom Brady and his scary good offence is no easy task. Seattle?s offence is where the most notable difference is. The Seahawks have a brutal offensive line. That deficiency has sunk Seattle?s ground game to a 30th-ranked unit, averaging just 75 yards per game. Playing good ?D? and waiting for an opponent?s blunder is a strategy that won?t work for Seachickens here. Patriots haven?t been in primetime much this year. Watch them flaunt their stuff. TAKING: NEW ENGLAND ?7?
THE REST
Chiefs (6-2) at Panthers (3-5)
Chiefs aren?t sexiest of teams, but are proving to be quite proficient. Heck, at 6-2 they?d be leading five of the other seven divisions, but are currently a half game behind Oakland in the talented AFC West. When it all stacks up, taking points against the 3-5 Panthers is the prudent play here. Kansas City wins because they are careful with the ball. Currently on a four-game win streak, the Chiefs lead the league in turnover ratio at +13, with 20 takeaways and only seven giveaways. Carolina had those kind of numbers a year ago, but this year?s bunch has been much sloppier with just 11 takeaways compared to 17 giveaways, their -6 ratio ranking 26th in the league. The Panthers give up a lot more points and a ton more passing yards (305 vs. 256 yards per game) than today?s opponent. TAKING: CHIEFS +3
Broncos (6-3) at Saints (4-4)
We can understand why the Broncos were a one-point underdog in Oakland last week. Being a three-point dog here is more puzzling. Let?s be reminded that Denver is the reigning Super Bowl champion. The Saints did not see the post-season a year ago and they just pulled up to .500 last week with a win over the dreadful 49ers. Sure, the Saints can score points, but guess what? The Broncos are darn good at preventing them. Yes, Denver has offensive issues, but they can get remedied rather quickly here as they face New Orleans? 30th-ranked defensive unit, a group that has allowed the most passing yards in the league and the 30th most points. Denver has been bitten by the injury bug quite regularly lately, but it still has enough leaders and skilled position players to do battle here. TAKING: BRONCOS +3
Rams (3-5) at Jets (3-6)
Apple vs. Android this is not. The Jets are a mess. They?ve spent the week waiving dead-weight guys, signing practice-squad players from other rosters and trying to figure out who their starting quarterback will be. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick is ready to go (knee issues), is he someone to fear with his horrendous eight touchdown to 13 interception line? Defensive linemen Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson were benched last week for disciplinary reasons, which translates to not giving a hoot about their team under current conditions. Just not a team that you?d want to invest in and especially when they are required to give away some points here. Granted, the Rams have many issues of their own, not the least of which is at quarterback where Case Keenum continues to falter but with good defensive players strewn throughout their lineup, Rams earn our slight lean here. TAKING: RAMS +2
Falcons (6-3) at Eagles (4-4)
Yes, Eaglemania has died down after Philadelphia?s 3-0 start has suddenly evened out to 4-4, good for last place in the competitive NFC East. However, let?s be fair. Philly has not lost at home this season in three starts here. The Eagles have been on the road for four of the past five weeks with all four of those travels against teams currently sporting a winning record. Three of those away games were against each of the teams in Philadelphia?s division. The only home game during that extensive span was a decisive win over the Vikings, snapping Minnesota?s five-game winning streak. Falcons are solid and are certainly dangerous but they give up a lot of yardage. Maybe Carson Wentz and the Eagles? defence overachieved in the early going. But maybe a tough schedule and difficult situations has them undervalued here? We think the latter is more likely. TAKING: EAGLES +2
Vikings (5-3) at Redskins (4-3-1)
Minnesota?s offensive line has become a liability, minus both tackles and with starting guards rotating in and out of lineup all year. With such unsteadiness comes deficiency and the Vikings? anaemic offence is the victim here. This offence currently ranks dead last in total yards while the ground game sits 31st in a league of 32. Rushing for 2.7 yards per carry is just not going to work in this league. It?s not like the Vikes can turn to their passing game to bail them out as that unit ranks in lower tier as well. Minnesota has not won since coming off its bye three weeks ago while averaging just 12 points per game in this three-game slide. The marketplace seems to underestimate the Redskins. They?ve only lost once in past five games and they are well-rested for this home contest after a two-week break. TAKING: REDSKINS ?2?
Packers (4-4) at Titans (4-5)
The public still considers Green Bay among top teams while the Titans are equally perceived, but from the other end of the spectrum. That thinking suggests an inflated line here and one that spells danger. Truth be told, the Packers may not deserve this billing. They just lost at home to the Colts. The team is riddled with injuries and its offensive backfield is in shambles. Things are so bad back there that QB Aaron Rodgers has the team?s most rushing yards over the past two weeks. As good a passer that Rodgers is, it?s very difficult to be one-dimensional in this league. Defensively, the Pack are also beat up with several key secondary players on the limp. The Titans have improved offensively, scoring 26 or more in each of their past five games. At this price, they are more deserving of our support. TAKING: TITANS +3
Bears (2-6) at Buccaneers (3-5)
Not interested in a Tampa team that is not receiving a handful of points. The Bucs are basically required to win here to earn a cover and that?s something only a fool would rely on. With all of its quarterback, coaching and personnel changes, the Buccaneers have just three wins in past 20 tries on this field. Four games as hosts this season have produced zero wins and zero covers. While today?s visitor is only 2-6 overall, the Bears arrive here rested and confident after a tidy 20-10 triumph before their bye. That game saw QB Jay Cutler return to the field and the team perked up considerably. We know that Cutler can be erratic and moody, but he is certainly the preferred pivot at this price against sophomore QB Jameis Winston, who has regressed since an impressive rookie season. Winston and Tampa?s backfield are also nursing some pains. TAKING: BEARS ?1
49ers (1-7) at Cardinals (3-4-1)
How bad are the 49ers, you ask? So bad that a sub .500 team is nearly a two-touchdown favourite over them. There is good reason for this. Losers of seven straight, the Niners defence is a worn-out group that can?t stop its opponents due to fatigue, injuries and subpar players. This group ranks 32nd against the run, allowing an implausible 193 yards per game on the ground. Cleveland, the next highest, allows almost 50 yards less per game. Arizona RB David Johnson could set some sort of rushing record on this day. Don?t expect Johnson or his mates to overlook this opponent. The Cardinals are desperate for wins if they are able to crawl back to playoff contention. The Cards defeated this visitor by 47-7 on this field a year ago. The 49ers have not covered a road game this season. This could get ugly TAKING: CARDINALS ?13?
Cowboys (7-1) at Steelers (4-4)
The Cowboys have won and covered seven straight. Their only blemish was a one-point Week 1 loss to the Giants. When taking points this season, the ?Boys defeated both the Bengals and Packers by 14 points each. This isn?t a fluke. Dallas employs the league leading rusher in Ezekiel Elliott, averaging 111 yards per game, 20 yards better than next-best DeMarco Murray. Elliott?s skills combined with a strong offensive line have allowed rookie QB Dak Prescott to play smartly and the results are evident. Meanwhile, the Steelers can?t be counted on. Even QB Ben Roethlisberger?s return last week couldn?t stop the team?s losing streak, now up to three games. Also worth noting is that the NFC East has dominated the AFC North this season with a 7-0-1 mark straight up mark and 8-0 against the spread. Dallas too reliable this year to refuse point offered. TAKING: COWBOYS +2?
Bengals (3-4) at Giants (5-3)
LINE: NY GIANTS Even
Another AFC North team takes on a NFC East squad and, as noted above, that hasn?t worked out very well this year for the AFC side. Both teams tricky to figure out at times, but the Giants are hot right now (three straight wins) and this is a cheap price to pay against a Cincinnati team that has not covered a spread this year in five tries when traveling. In addition, Cincinnati?s wins have come against losing teams while all losses have occurred against teams that were above .500 when they met. For the Giants, QB Eli Manning has rekindled with WR Odell Beckham and the tandem have produced five touchdowns in the G-Men?s previous three games. While the Bengals? defensive numbers suggest aptitude, the secondary has been leaky, causing coaching staff to tinker with lineup this week. Host gets minor nod. TAKING: GIANTS Even
HOU @ JAX -2
Houston?s 32nd ranked pass-O will face off against Jacksonville?s 12th ranked pass-D, while Jacksonville?s 24th ranked pass-O will face off against Houston?s 7th ranked pass-D. Something?s got to give. Texans are 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, though they have faced off against NE, MIN, and DEN, some of the better teams in the league. Now they?ll take on the Jags, one of the worst teams. Jags are 0-3 SU and 0-2 ATS at home. Houston is coming off a BYE week, so had 2 weeks to prepare here. Jacksonville has now lost 3 straight, against beatable teams in OAK, TEN, and KC (no Smith/Ware). Last week though they gained 6.0 YPP to KC?s 4.1 YPP, registered 25 1st downs to KC?s 10, and gained almost 450 yards to KC?s 230. How the heck did they lose? Well, a 0-4 TO-differential had mostly to do with it. But it?s important to note that Jacksonville dominated this top-10 KC offense last week, while their own D did it?s job against the Chiefs. For Jacksonville, it doesn?t get more ?beatable? than Houston though, which just like the Jags, are one of the worst teams in the NFL. One major potential issue for Houston is the fact that AJ Bouye injured his ankle in Friday?s practice. He?s listed as questionable and ?could? play this week, but frankly, getting injured this late in the week is bad news. Why am I mentioning Bouye, a CB most people have never heard of? Well, because he?s the #1 ranked corner by PFF, one of two with a grade above 90 (Talib, another injured corner, is the other one). Remember, Houston is without Kevin Johnson, the 7th ranked corner. This pass-D might not be as tough in this meeting as the ranking indicates. Of course the way to attack both defenses is via the run as JAC ranks 27th and HOU 28th defending it. There?s also significant RLM to consider in this game, as about 30% of the wagers is on the home team, yet the line moved from +1.5 to -2 now. I lean JAX in this one as I think the two teams mirror each other pretty well: crappy QB?s, crappy offenses, good pass-D?s, bad run-D. The fact that Houston could be down two of their top corners (elite corners at that), plus with Jags playing at home, gives Jacksonville enough of an edge with the line under a FG. Lean: JAX -2
KC @ CAR -3
The Chiefs struggled mightily last week as they were without Smith and Ware. Both are back this week. The Panthers barely squeezed out a win against the Rams, though they were NOT the better team. Panthers got outgained 339 to 244 yards, and 5.1 YPP to only 3.9 YPP. Rams had over 100 yards in penalty yardage and a costly turnover, which was pretty much the difference in the game. Bottom line is that the Panthers were NOT the better team last week, yet they?re once again a full FG favorite in this matchup. My model has CAR -1 in this one, providing solid value on the visitors. One key factor to consider is that the Panthers are once again without Ryan Kalil, their best offensive lineman. They?re also without Oher (though he stinks), making this O-line very thin coming into this matchup. The Chiefs have a top-10 pass-D, and if they can contain these Carolina receivers, Newton could get battered once again. I expect a very tight game here with the points being very valuable. Lean: KC +3
DEN @ NO -3
I have this one -1 NO, so once again the road team has plenty of value. The Saints are 4-1 in the last 5 games, but it?s not like they?ve dominated. They were lucky to come back against the Chargers (won by 1), held off the Panthers at home (won by 3), lost @ KC, and held on against the Seahawks, who simply ran out of time while they were driving late for a game winning TD (won by 5). Denver is a good team, and there?s no reason NOT to expect a close game. It hurts that the Broncos are without Talib and Wolfe, but this defense is still plenty talented. Of course their run-D is the weak point and the Saints have a pretty efficient running attack all of a sudden. Still, the Broncos are 7-2 ATS as an underdog the last few years while the Saints are 7-16 ATS as a favorite over the same time-span. Lean: DEN +3
LAR @ NYJ -1
This Rams D shut down Cam Newton last week, so what do you think they?ll do to Fitzpatrick, who is the WORST starter in the league. It?s not even close actually. Now dealing with a knee issue, and facing a healthy Rams D-line (remember, their key player missed some games a few weeks back), this one could be a disaster for the Jets. It won?t help that Clady and Mangold are out once again. Rams rank 7th in run-D and their D-line is #2 in stopping the run. I doubt New York will be able to lean on Forte in this one. While I also expect the Jets D to stop LA?s run-game, there is one factor that is in the Rams? favor: offensive playmakers in the passing game. Jets have Brandon Marshall and Enunwa somewhat. The Rams though, have Austin, Britt, Quick, and Kendricks, who are all capable offensive weapons. I think you also have to give the edge to Keenum in this one, as he?s healthier, and (I can?t believe I?m about to write this!) a better QB in this matchup. Jet?s 30th ranked pass-D is also a factor in visitor?s favor. LA is playing on the East Coast, in the 1 PM EST time-slot, but I?d be willing to overlook that this week as they?re the ?better? team in the matchup. Lean: LAR +1
ATL @ PHI +1
The best QB in the league is Matt Ryan: #1 in DYAR; #2 in DVOA; #3 in QBR; #3 in PY/A @ 8.5 with 23:4 TD:INT ratio and 70% Completion %. Wentz isn?t close: #23 in DYAR; #24 in DVOA; #29 in QBR; #29 in PY/A @ 6.2 with 9:5 TD:INT ratio and 65% Completion %. Clearly there?s a huge advantage for ATL at the most important position. They?ve also had 10-days to rest/prepare for this one. Trufant is out for the Falcons, and though a factor, it?s not as big as McKelvin being downgraded to limited practices on Thur and Fri. I think McKelvin sits, but even if he plays, he?s not going to keep up with Julio Jones. Philly?s corners overall are horrible and I expect the best offense in the league to take full advantage. The question is can Wentz effectively lead the offense in this matchup? Atlanta is 21st defensively and does give up a ton of points. Philly is 1-4 SU/ATS on the road but this team is 3-0 SU/ATS at home. The Falcons are only 4-16 ATS as favorites in the last 20 matchups. As ?appealing? as it looks to back the Falcons, I think you have to side with the home dog in this one, especially the one looking to break a 2-game losing streak. Lean: PHI +1
MIN @ WAS -2.5
I have this one at WAS -1, so not much value here as long as the spread is below a FG. The luster has come off the Vikings after their 5-0 start, as this team is mired in a 3-game losing streak. Their O-Coordinator quit, the O-line is horrendous, and losing to Detroit at home in OT had to be demoralizing last week. Washington ranks 4th in ASR% and has a 13th ranked pass-D. This is a tough matchup for Minnesota?s offense. It should be equally tough for Washington?s too. Stud LT Trent Williams is out for 4 weeks (suspension), DeSean Jackson is going to sit, they?re starting an undrafted rookie at RB, and Vikings are getting Kendricks back. Minnesota is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year and 16-5 ATS in the last few years. Washington is 1-2 ATS as a favorite and 2-8 ATS in the last few years. Lean: MIN +2.5
GB @ TEN +3
Aaron Rodgers ranks 5th in QBR / 13th in DVOA, but he?s 40th in PY/A with 5.8. League average mark is 6.5 PY/A, so you can see how bad Rodgers has been in that area. He?s fairly efficient, but there?s virtually zero big play ability in this Packers offense. Luckily for them, they get to face off against the Titans? 27th ranked pass-D. Plus they?re getting Cobb back and maybe even Starks. Tennessee is a hard team to back. They?re good enough to cover spreads but they continue to be so mistake prone that they?re failing to do so on a regular basis. Last week they had two TO?s returned for TD?s. The team is 3-6 ATS though they should be 5-4 ATS at least (Vikings and Chargers games). Green Bay off two straight losses is in a ?must win? spot of sorts, and the defensive advantage (#8 vs #26) has to give them an edge in this one. Lean: GB -3
CHI @ TB +2.5
The Bears are 2-6 ATS, 0-2 ATS as favorites this year, and 2-6 ATS as favorites over the last few years. Bucs are 0-4 ATS at home but 15-16 ATS as an underdog (3-4 ATS as an underdog this year). The ATS numbers indicate to be very careful with Chicago as listed ?favorites?, especially on the road, though let?s not forget that this is a new regime in charge. Due to this, it?s easy to pass on them. The Bears have gotten very healthy over their BYE week, getting all their defensive starters back plus Sitton/Long for the O-line. They are a better team, no doubt. Tampa has 3 wins: vs ATL in week 1 (have no clue how they won that one), @ SF, and @ CAR when Cam Newton was out. Basically, this team is 0-5 SU/ATS against every other opponent that is ?better? than them, besides ATL in week 1. I think they?re a fade every time with a favorable spread (under a FG) and facing a superior team. Lean: CHI -2.5
MIA @ SD -4.5
The Chargers were lucky to cover last week as TEN allowed two turnovers to be returned for TD?s. The overall matchup was pretty even with SD @ 6.5 YPP and TEN @ 6.3. The Dolphins are off 3 straight wins and making their way all the way across the country for this one. They?ve beaten PIT (when Roethilisberger got hurt), BUF (without McCoy), and the NYJ, arguably the worst team in the league. All games were at home, and now Miami is going on the road where they are 0-3 this season. The Dolphins are also a run-oriented team now, with Ajayi playing like a monster. Their 2nd ranked rushing-O will take on a mediocre 19th ranked SD run-D. If Miami can control the clock with their run-game, they?ll be in this one. If San Diego gets out to a quick lead (and Miami?s secondary is pretty bad so that?s very doable), this one could be over. Tannehill just isn?t good enough to carry a team. My model has this one at -4.8, so this one is a pass for me. PASS
SF @ ARZ -14
I got this one at -11.5 ARZ so value?s on the road team. Let?s not forget that this is a divisional matchup, so the teams are fairly familiar with one another. Those types of games are often closer than most assume they?d be. Cardinals rank 17th overall in the NFL. They have an elite defense, but their offense is only 26th and their ST?s are 30th. This team shouldn?t be this big of a favorite against a divisional opponent. Lean: SF +14
DAL @ PIT -2.5
Is this the week when Dallas? winning streak ends? Remember, they lost Claiborne and Church, their best two players in the secondary, last week. Though Cleveland couldn?t take advantage of it, Steelers surely could. Roethlisberger didn?t look fully healthy last week but he played much better in the 4th quarter against the Ravens, and I?d expect him to be fully healthy for this game. He?s also getting Ladarius Green for this one, so Steelers will have plenty of weapons to attack this over-achieving Dallas defense. Remember, Pittsburgh got their key players back healthy last week and I expect them to be even better at home in this matchup. In off-season this line was -6 PIT. It?s below a FG now. I think Steelers will bring this Dallas team down to Earth a bit this week. Lean: PIT -2.5
Rams/Jets will indeed raw a lot of attention because of Petty starting but I am not sure there is anywhere to go with it - a pick'em game between two teams that won't be able to run the ball well, forcing some bad QBs to be putting the ball in the air perhaps more than the coaches would like, is a recipe for randomness in the outcome, the game more likely to be decided by which QB makes the most mistakes, rather than the most good plays. As for line adjustment a proper starting point is that Fitzpatrick was dead last among starting QBs with a 67.6 Passer Rating, so any adjustment can only go so far. And of course for comparison across the field Keenum is #29 at 77.2.
Delaware vs. Bradley
Play: Under 137
Bradley and Delaware both struggled with their division two opponents and now play each other in Peoria. The Braves are traditionally a more methodical team although they did score 70 points in game one. Each of these teams are breaking in a lot of new players in their rotation and neither is particularly quick. The Blue Hens played a much lower scoring game winning only 64-56. They don't have a ton of options so they have to rely on their defense. Bradley has gone under in 15 of their last 25 home games. Delaware has gone under in 23 of their last 42 games as an underdog. This game was a 70-47 UD win last year with more talent. We'll see another lower scoring contest in this one.
HORNETS AT CAVALIERS
PLAY: HORNETS +8
There?s not much debate that the Cavaliers are going to once again be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. They?re the best team in that sector by a pretty substantial margin and they know it.
But that doesn?t mean there aren?t spots where taking a good number of points and trying to grab a cover makes plenty of sense. I think that?s the case today as Charlotte pays a visit to the reigning champs.
The Hornets are playing very good basketball. They?re 6-2 to start the season and the two losses were close. I?m quite confident that Charlotte will be looking at this as a very big game, so asking for max effort isn?t a stretch.
As for the Cavs, they?re 7-1, so there doesn?t appear to be a hangover, which sometimes can afflict championship teams, particularly early in the season. The champs are taking care of business for the most part.
I?ll make a case, however, that this Charlotte team might be legit. They were 48-34 last season and if the first 10% of the new campaign is an indicator, the Hornets could very well be a team that ends up owning a top four seed in the Eastern Conference come playoff time.
The Cavs won three of the four meetings between these teams last season, and they?ll probably take this one as well. But I think there?s a bit of value at the price with the underdog. I expect Charlotte to compete here, and I?ll go ahead and grab the eight with the Hornets to produce a spread win.
Lakers vs. Wolves
Play: Lakers +4?
The Lakers have covered the spread five of the last six meetings and 13 of the last 16 in Minnesota which, of course, includes some bad Lakers teams. However, the Lakers appear to be much improved this season under new coach Luke Walton having won five of their last six games. The Lakers blew out New Orleans 126-99 last night as they shot 55.3 percent overall and sank 16 of 30 three-point attempts. Jordan Clarkson led his team with 23 points D'Angelo Russell added 22 points while Julius Randle grabbed 11 rebounds against the Pelicans. The Timberwolves also played on Saturday night but lost 119-105 to the Clippers to lower their record to 2-6 both straight up and ATS. The Clippers were coming off a tough, two-point win in Oklahoma City the night before but still had no trouble with the Timberwolves.
In the Sights, Sunday Hoops?
Don Monson and Long Beach State annually play the toughest non-conference schedule of any program in college basketball, a way to grab some paychecks for the athletic department, and also toughen up for Big West Conference play down the line. This time around it is taken to an entirely different level, the next 10 days arguably the toughest cycle any team has ever attempted, and I believe the biggest headache game through that cycle is this evening, which puts #728 WICHITA STATE (8:00 Eastern) into play, with -9 available in the morning trading and this one good up to -10.
Here is how it lays out ? the 49ers are in Wichita this evening, then at North Carolina Tuesday, Louisville Thursday, UCLA Sunday and Washington the following Tuesday. That is brutal not just for the quality of opponents but also length of travel across multiple time zones. It might have been somewhat manageable without tonight?s game, but when LBS accepted a spot in part of the Battle4Atlantis ? Mainland, this one got added late to the tour.
Tonight the 49ers will come in ill-prepared for the tpe of game that will be played, a physical grinder that negates their strength ? the ability to get out into the open court with multiple scorers ? and exacerbates their weaknesses, which are size, depth and toughness. Monson highlighted those problems as part of his pre-season focus - ?This team is probably as good offensively as I?ve had for a while. But it needs some guys to do the dirty work and it needs some guys to rebound and defend and do some other things.?
Wichita is all about those lunch pail aspects of the sport. While losing long-time mainstays Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet would be difficult for any program, Gregg Marshall has a deep, athletic and talented rotation, one that got a chance to develop ahead of schedule with a trip to Canada back in early August. Part of that development was an array of full-court presses to utilize the particular talents on hand, and you could see some of those designs in Friday?s 85-39 rout of South Carolina State, when a dozen Shockers played at least 10 minutes, none of them going more than 20.
There will be times in the early season when Wichita will struggle to score, caught up in half-court games in which the offensive chemistry will be a work in progress. But tonight there will be plenty of opportunities in the open floor, and I anticipate Marshall?s bunch wearing down an opponent with much less depth. And while a victory here would be a feather in the cap for the Shockers, the 49ers aren?t really out to grab wins on this trip, and with the short turnaround before playing North Carolina Monson will need to get some of his inexperienced players some action tonight. That is where this one can break open.
I see a nice edge in #713 Eastern Michigan over SMU this afternoon. Early in the season its best to catch teams with returning minutes and points against teams without. Such is the case as Eastern Michigan (2015 RPI .527) returns nine players who averaged double digits while SMU returns 3. EMU returns over 3 players who averaged double digits in points while SMU 1. EMU gets 12 points in this contest. I chart this a one or two basket game. I am on the visiting dog EMU.
It may all come down to how much impact Friday night had on the Eagles - to lose in double overtime at Pittsburgh, and then have to come back for an afternoon tip-off two days later, is a difficult turnaround. I might be inclined to look towards the +7 for the first half there for part of the ticket, since there is a concern about the staying power of the visitor. They played a terrific game on Friday; to play that well and loose can zap a little spirit.
1:00 PM NFL [259] TOTAL o47.5 -150 (B+2) (ATL FALCONS vrs PHI EAGLES)
1:00 PM NFL [263] GB PACKERS -1-175 (B+2)
4:25 PM NFL [272] TOTAL u52-150 (B+2) (DAL COWBOYS vrs PIT STEELERS)
3:35 PM NBA [701] Charlotte Hornets +10-150 (B+2)
2:00 PM CBB [713] Eastern Michigan +15-145 (B+2)
2:00 PM CBB Added Game [744] Siena -14.5 -110
2:05 PM NHL [51] Los Angeles Kings -105
4:05 PM NHL [53] Dallas Stars -130
1 unit bet pays 134 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Chiefs vs. Panthers
Play: Panthers -3
From a scheduling stand point, we think this is a very strong play. The Panthers entered their bye-week sitting at 1-5, but have come out on the other side with two straight wins, including a 13-10 effort over the Rams last Sunday. With a big game against rival New Orleans next week, we?re expecting the home side to be extremely focused on the task at hand. Despite the slow start, the NFC South is still up for grabs and the Panthers will be looking to keep the momentum rolling. Meanwhile the Chiefs come to town off four straight wins, including a satisfying victory at home over Jacksonville last week. All signs point to a classic letdown spot for the visitors in our opinion.
Pittsburgh -2.5
My line for this game is 6.5....If ever the Cowboys would have a stumble letdown game, this would be the one....Cowboys have been very good this year, but I worry about the level of competition they have faced this year overall.....They haven't had a true test on the road with a team with a good offense and good defense IMO...Yes they played the Packers and won, but GB is in a real funk...I'm not taking anything away from Dallas, but I feel the schedule was loaded with a bunch of teams with losing records or piss poor defenses...This is a real test for the Cowboys and Pitt now has their backs up against the wall..That usually spells disaster for a team against Pitt..Plus they are at home and coming off a 3rd loss..Big Ben will be back in the saddle again and the Steelers offense last week looked like it was stuck in mud....This is a typical god spot though for the Steelers..They seem to beat the good teams and struggle with teams they should beat...Preskott has been very good, but I feel we might just see that clunker game from him..Pitt has a pretty good rush defense and if they can limited Elliot from having a big game, it will be on the shoulders of Preskott on the road..I don't like the situation for the Cowboys...Big Ben will have his legs under him for this game after a week of practice once again..I feel this line is very short and needing only 3 or more to get us the win looks good...7-1 record for Dallas is very sharp, but I feel that record is baked into this incorrect line....I got this one Pitt 31-20
San Francisco at Arizona
Play: Under 48
These two met in San Francisco on a Thursday night back in Week 5, with the Cardinals earning the 33-21 victory. The quarterback matchup in that first meeting was Blaine Gabbert versus Drew Stanton. This game will feature a QB matchup of Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer.
In that Week 5 meeting, the 49ers defense had absolutely no answer for Cardinals running back David Johnson, who torched the Niner D for 157 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The pitiful 49ers defense will make stopping Johnson a priority, but I doubt it will matter.
The betting public will see the 54 points scored in the first meeting (Gabbert/Stanton), consider the porous 49ers defense, and look to bet the Over with Palmer now back under center for Arizona. And let?s face it, the public doesn?t need much incentive to bet Overs. I think that?s a mistake here.
One aspect the public probably won?t consider is the stout Arizona defense. Take away the game against New England in the season opener, and Arizona has allowed just 8.25 points per game at home this season.
I expect Arizona to once again feature David Johnson. That keeps the clock moving. The 49ers offense may have looked good against the Saints last Sunday, but there?s a wide gap between the Saints defense and this Arizona stop unit.
I can see Arizona winning in a blowout, but I hate laying double digits in the NFL. A wide margin should lead to a clock-burning fourth quarter. These games usually end up being dog & Over or favorite & Under. Since I expect the chalk to roll here but don?t wish to lay the heavy lumber, I see the total as the better play.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -13.5
The Arizona Cardinals come out of their bye week in serious trouble, and the playoffs look at little out of reach. Today they look to get a win streak going and get on a run to try and make the playoffs. Who better to get it started with than the SF 49ers. The 49ers have really looked awful since winning their first game of the year. In their last 4 games they have given up 33,45,34 and 41 points respectively. The Cardinals put up 33 last time in San Francisco and that was with Drew Stanton at QB. Actually both teams will have different QB's today with Colin Kaepernick replacing Blaine Gabbert for SF. Kaeparnick still isn't the same guy he was when he took the 49ers to the Super Bowl. The last time he played in Arizona it was a nightmare for him as the Cardinals beat the 49ers 47-7. We see a Cardinal team desperate to make a statement taking out their frustrations against the lowly 49ers. The line is 13 1/2 at the time of this writing. We normally would not lay these many points at anytime but the situation today has us very comfortable in doing so. We see another blowout in Arizona today.
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -3
Make no mistake, the Chiefs have been winning because of a plus 13 turnover margin. Is that sustainable? Not likely. Last year Kansas City ended the year +14, but the prior year it had a -3 deficit. KC was +18 in 2013, but -24 the prior season. So you can tell that turnovers for the most part are random, especially fumbles. Digging deeper we find that the Chiefs this year are 6-2 on the season, but are just 4-4 when looking at yards per play statistics. When KC fails to win the turnover battle it is 0-3 on the season.
The Panthers are just 3-5 on the year, and 4-4 in yards per play analysis. When looking at explosive plays Carolina has an advantage of three on the season vs the Chiefs. The big key is turnover margin in which KC has a whopping 19 advantage over Carolina. As we know that type of edge is not sustainable, which gives us a solid play here on the Panthers.
Broncos vs. Saints
Play: Broncos +3
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here on the Broncos after their loss to the Raiders last week. This is still a very good Denver team and I don't think they should be catching a field goal against the Saints. New Orleans was a dog in their last two home games against the Panthers and Seahawks. While they won both, that just shows you the value we are getting here with Denver. The Broncos offense should be able to help the defense in this one, as the Saints are atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. This is a big bounce back game for Denver and I expect them to deliver with a big road win here. Broncos are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 after a SU loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 350 or more total yards in their previous game.
Broncos vs. Saints
Play: Broncos +3
We expect a nice bounce back from Denver here after a very poor performance on Sunday Night last week. They were beaten 30-20 by Oakland and the defense, which is still ranked as the 2nd most efficient in the NFL, was run all over for 218 rushing yards. The 30 points was by far the most Denver has given up this year (23 was most prior to last week) and you can bet this experienced unit was embarrassed by their performance. They face a different type of offense this year. Even though they ran for a pile of yards last week vs a terrible San Fran defense, New Orleans isn?t a great running team. They normally rely heavily on the arm of Drew Brees which plays right into Denver?s strength as they are #1 in the NFL in passing YPG allowed, QB completion rate, and yards allowed per pass attempt. The Denver offense should play well against a Saint defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. New Orleans is just 2-2 at home this year with their wins coming to the wire with margins of 3 & 5 points. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS the last 8 times as an underdog winning 6 of those games outright. We feel we?re getting the better team, as a 3-point dog, and motivated off a terrible performance on national TV.
49ers vs. Cardinals
Play: 49ers +14
OMG not again. I just can't believe that I am coming back with San Francisco after the way they fail 'ME' last week against the Saints. Colin Kaepernick doesn't stand for the National Anthem, vote in our elections or even know how to throw a forward pass with any touch at all. Okay, we know the Niners limitations but the over-rated Arizona squad is without a number of key personnel and just don't have what it takes to grab the brass ring. With this generous (by NFL standards) points the 49ers can stay within the spread margin.
Texans vs. Jaguars
Play: Texans +2.5
I don?t know how you take the Jaguars right now. They outgained an injury depleted KC team on the road by more than 200 yards. Yet still found a way to lose and it could have been worse had the Chiefs not had to settle for 4 field goals.
Houston isn?t a team that I like a lot, but I feel the price is right here with them getting points against an inferior opponentl. I think some of the reason we are seeing a small line, is because Houston is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road. However, that?s a misleading stat. The Texans 3 road games have come against the Patriots, Vikings and Broncos.
One thing Houston has been able to do is take care of business against bad teams. I don?t think there?s any arguing that Jacksonville is not good. Prior to the loss to the Chiefs, they lost 16-33 at home to the Raiders and 22-36 at the Titans.
Typically we expect a team like the Jaguars to show value after such a bad start. I don?t know that will be the case this time around. Jacksonville was getting all kinds of hype coming into season and I think the players believed in it. It?s a lot easier to finish strong when there?s no expectations. I see the struggles continuing.
This is also not a game the Texans can afford to lose if they want to win the division. In their next four they host the Raiders and Chargers and go to Green Bay and Indianapolis. I don?t think it would surprise anyone if they lost all 4 of those, making this one that much more important.
Another huge key here is that Houston is coming off a bye. That gives them an even bigger edge here. You also have to look at how they have dominated this series. The Texans have won each of the last 4 meetings with Jacksonville, with 3 of the 4 wins coming by double-digits.
Houston @ Jacksonville
Pick: Over 42
Many thought this would be the season that the Jacksonville Jaguars would turn the corner, perhaps even contending for a playoff spot in the weak AFC South. Instead its playing out like so many of the recent Jaguars' seasons... another loser. The Jags have not had a winning record in eight seasons, and they appear to be headed for their ninth loser n a row after starting the season 2-6. Despite the bad news, this team has made some progress in the running game. They have been slightly above average in generating 4.3 yards per carry vs. a schedule of teams that average allowing 4.1. Jacksonville's defense has allowed 26.9 points per game this season while Houston's has allowed 28.3 points per game on the road. The weakness in the Houston defense has been against the run where they allow 4.4 yards per carry vs. teams that average just 4.0. The Jaguars churned out a season high 205 yards on the ground last week, and it did help the passing game as they threw for 244 yards as well. The problem for Jacksonville was not moving the ball, it was four turnovers that held them to just 14 points. And, that is where we find the value in this one. Houston has run for over 400 yards themselves over the last three games, and should find some room in this game. Jacksonville is 35-20 to the OVER in their last 55 games after outgaining their last opponent by 100 yards or more. In their last 16 games vs. losing teams, the Texans are 11-5 to the OVER.
JACKSONVILLE -2? over Houston
The Texans are coming off their bye and for an offense with no rhythm or consistency, an offensive improvement is not likely at all. The Texans are winless on the road. Their tenure at the top of the AFC South may be closing soon considering they have four away venues over the next five games. The offense continues to struggle both rushing and passing while the defense mostly steps up in home games. The Texans record has been propped up entirely by home wins over average or worse teams. That this group of dregs are in first place and has more wins than losses is a true testament to how weak and pathetic the AFC South is. Brock Osweiler?s confidence has to be ravaged with half of a season of poor play after being the pricey free agent addition in the offseason. Osweiler only totals nine touchdowns on the year with nine interceptions. Houston ranks 30th in passing offense. Worse yet are his four games with under 200 yards and the fact that he's played in three road games and has managed one touchdown from those games combined. He also never passed for more than 196 yards in an away game. Given the choice between Brock Osweiler and anyone else in the league that is playing or sitting on the bench as a backup, we would not choose Osweiler.
The Jaguars lost 19-14 in Kansas City but they were the better team throughout. If you had the Chiefs in your survivor pool, you dodged a massive bullet. The Jags outgained K.C. in total yardage 449 to 231 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That's why it's so hard to back a team like Jacksonville. Even when they are the better team, Blake Bortles is a turnover factory and the team keeps finding ways to lose. The Jags have a disappointing 2-6 record but one has to trust they are on the verge. Teams? like Jacksonville, with talent and potential, often play their best when it matters least. The Jags aren?t out of it yet but with two wins in eight tries, their expectations have fallen dramatically. Jacksonville?s defense has been a highlight this season, as they are a top 10 unit heading into Week 10. That figures to bode well against Osweiler.
Here?s what we know for sure; The Jags have the superior QB and it?s not close. The Texans are worse than Jacksonville but have a better record based on ?in-game variances?. Houston has not won a road game yet. Lastly, Houston swept the Jaguars last year and a team as bad as they are should never beat its equal or better three times in a row. Just hold onto the ball and this should not be a difficult game for the host, who sit just three games back of these visiting dregs and play them twice more. Whenever the Texans are on the road, they should be offered more points than this, which is our cue to move in hard.
Denver +127 over NEW ORLEANS
The Broncos fell 30-20 on Sunday Night Football to the Raiders. These high profile prime time games almost always receive the biggest overreactions because of the attention they receive and because of the millions that watched. What they saw was that Denver dug a deep hole early and could not recover. It was an emotional night for the Raiders, as Oakland hosted their first Sunday night game in over a decade. Despite the loss, the Broncos are still 6-3. They may not have the same pedigree without Peyton Manning at quarterback but Trevor Siemian has filled in admirably. He?s not flashy but does have 10 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He?s also put up over 275 yards passing the last two games. Siemian is trending in the right direction and he could have his biggest game of the year against a Saints team that has a hard time stopping anything.
The Saints have won four of their last five games after crushing the 49ers, 41-23. They are now 4-4 after a 0-3 start. The Saints offense is putting up big points but their defense has played poorly by allowing 20 points or more in their last six games. The Saints can?t stop the pass. They?re giving up a league worst 300 yards per game through the air. It doesn?t get much better on the ground either where the opposition is racking up 108.5 yards per game. More than all of that however, is that New Orleans? stock is up after covering five straight games but there is nothing but holes in their game. Three of its four wins could have gone either way. Its only dominating victory was over the ?Niners, a team that is a total mess. The Saints have put up big offensive numbers against some of the worst defenses in the league (49ers, Falcons, Raiders, Chargers) so their offensive rankings and numbers are skewed The old adage says a ?good defense beats a good offense?. Those old adages have been around for a very long time because they are true and we?ll happily put it to the test here. Broncs outright is the call.
TENNESSEE +136 over Green Bay
The Packers found out what happens when you try to use a receiver at running back in their 31-26 home loss to the Colts. The Packers were flat out of the gate and the final score actually flatters them. We rarely discuss injuries because they are figured into the line but this is one of those rare exceptions that the injuries are being overlooked because it is a brand name versus a no-name. The Packers IR is loaded and the replacement players are a misfit collection of undrafted college free agents. Their highly touted run defense is a shell of what it was earlier in the season. The Packers defense has been exposed in recent weeks by giving up big points to the Lions, Cowboys, Falcons and Colts. Green Bay is now 4-4 after losing three of their last four games. They are banged up, they?re in poor form and they head out on a three game road trip.
The Titans lost a 43-35 shootout in San Diego last Sunday. Despite the loss, the Titans put up 413 yards of total offense including over 300 yards passing from Marcus Mariota. Turnovers sunk the Titans but there's a lot to like about them and they?re still very much under the radar. Tennessee has the third-ranked running game in the league and that's bad news for the banged up Packers D. When you can run in this league it makes a huge difference in opening up the passing game. A balanced offense is one no team wants to face and these Packers are completely ill-equipped right now. By contrast, the Packers non-existent running game should allow this Tennesse defensive unit to focus on shutting down Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have been favored on the road one other time this season and that was in Week 1 in Jacksonville where they barely covered 3? points. Green Bay was healthy then. In its current form, Green Bay cannot be favored on the road against an opponent on the rise like this one. The Titans offense is in great form, as the points have been up sharply for the last five games and in a game that actually favors the Titans in so many ways, we must play the value and take them to win outright.
NEW ENGLAND -7? over Seattle
We?re going to wait until Sunday to pull the trigger on this one because we anticipate the number dropping by then. After all, it?s not often that a team like Seattle is being offered points like this and the market is likely going to eat those points up. Not us, as we?ll gladly swallow them and here?s why: The Seahawks defense has allowed over 24 points in three of the last four games and the offense has become completely devoid of a rushing attack. The passing offense - when it works - is still little more than pitch-and-catch with Jimmy Graham and something that simple is not going to work against the best prepped team in the business. After a prime time game last week, the Seahawks have less time to prepare for a cross country trip for another prime time game. The Seahawks 5-2-1 record is a farce. The last time we saw them on the road in prime time was in a 6-6 tie against Arizona three weeks ago when they should?ve lost by 28. In the great words of Dennis Green, ?The Patriots will not let them off the hook?.
Before we get into the Patriots, let us take you back to last week?s prime time game against Buffalo. The NFL is losing customers (viewers) because the product is getting worse every year. Words like rigged, biased, a hoax and fixed are being thrown around more than ever. Fans and bettors are getting fed up with this product. This year?s ratings are way down from previous years, especially in prime time games. Well, once again, the Seahawks were the beneficiaries of some horrible officiating last week that had Twitter in an uproar and most of the venom was being thrown at the poor officiating in Seattle?s favor. The miscarriage of justice (an understatement) to the Bills was trending for at least an hour afterward all over Twitter and we can assure you that Roger Goddell and his office was watching and taking notice. The emphasis this week will be to tone it down big time. In other words, do not expect the Seahawks to get many calls their way. That?s just another obstacle this intruder will have to deal with.
Bill Belichick is in a league by himself. No other coach even comes close to having his troops? ready the way he does week in and week out season after season after season. These other idiots have no clue what is happening on the field. They?re all too busy trying to figure out the next play or the next sequence as it happens with no regard given to situations, time on clock or anything else. Bill Belichick is like a chess grandmaster playing an advanced player because he?s 10 moves ahead of everyone else. Tom Brady is even more passionate. Just four weeks into the season for Brady and he already has thrown 12 touchdowns and topped 300 yards three times. In true Brady fashion, he's relying on different receivers for a big game every week and still has yet to turn the ball over. At home, he's been worth three touchdowns and over 300 yards every game. These are not even games anymore for the Patriots. These are glorified practices that they dominate and while they have the occasional hiccup from time to time, that hiccup is unlikely to occur against a team they hate as much as Seattle or a team they want to defeat more.
Houston vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Jacksonville
The 5-3 Houston Texans welcomed the team's bye in Week 9 and return to the field on Sunday hoping to maintain their spot atop the AFC South with a road victory over the 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars. The last-place Jaguars (also AFC South) are trying to avoid a fourth consecutive loss. The Jaguars have been plagued by turnovers during their three-game skid, committing eight while failing to record a single takeaway. Houston opened the season 2-0 but has split six games since but with no other AFC South team above .500, the team has a chance to possibly start pulling away with a few wins in a row.
Jacksonville would be a good place to start, as the Jags are 0-3 at home to open the 2016 season and overall, head coach Gus Bradley is only 14-42 (.250) in his fourth season at Jacksonville. How ?hot? has his ?seat? become? Houston hit the midway point of the season 1 1/2 games ahead of Indianapolis and Tennessee in the AFC South. QB Brock Osweiler has been inconsistent at best, completing 59.3 percent with nine TDs and nine INTs. His QB rating of 73.1 is hardly what Houston expected when it signed him to a big FA deal during the off-season. Houston ranks 30th in passing YPG (199.2), causing the team to rank 30th in total offense as well (313.2 YPG) and most troubling of all, just 30th in scoring at 17.1 PPG. The defense obviously misses J.J. Watt but it?s been respectable, allowing 20.9 PPG (11th) and fifth in total defense (316.2 YPG).
Blake Bortles leads the Jacksonville offense but his numbers are down from last year, when he threw 35 TD passes (18 INTs), averaged 276.8 YPG passing with an 88.2 QB rating. Halfway through the 2016 season he?s got 14 TD passes (10 INTs) and is averaging 256.3 YPG with an 80.2 QB rating. He?s rarely been helped by his running game, as before last Sunday?s outburst in Kansas City, the Jags entered that contest averaging 72.6 YPG on the ground. However, Jacksonville is coming off its best offensive output of the year thanks to a season-high 205 rushing yards against the Chiefs. Jacksonville outgained KC 449-231 in yards, as well as 25-10 in FDs but the Jags could only score 14 points and still lost!
Chris Ivory (107 yards) led the resurgent ground game and could continue to see a greater share of the work than T.J. Yeldon, while QB Blake Bortles racked up 54 rushing yards last week but remains inconsistent in the passing game. The Jaguars also turned in their best defensive effort of the year against Kansas City but they haven?t forced a turnover since Week 4 against Indianapolis. However, maybe Houston is the right opponent at the right time? The Texans have failed to record 300 total yards of offense in three of their last four games and four of their last six. Houston?s forced just six turnovers (three interceptions and three fumble recoveries), with only Jacksonville's five takeaways (three interceptions and two fumble recoveries) being fewer this season. The Texans are tied for 29th at minus-7 in the TO margin department and the Jaguars (2-6) are last at minus-12.
These teams are at opposite ends of the division standings but Houston head coach Bill O?Brien is quick to note the Jaguars have three losses by five points or fewer, including last week?s 19-14 defeat at Kansas City. ?They?ve had some very, very close games,? O?Brien told reporters. ?They?ve lost some close games like (last week). Very close. They?ve won a couple of close games. We know that this is going to be a very, very difficult challenge for us in Jacksonville.? I believe Houston fans should heed O'Brien's warning and stay away from the Texans in this one. Jacksonville gets a rare win.
THE BEST BETS
Texans (5-3) at Jaguars (2-6)
As poor as the Jaguars appear to be, we?re willing to take this leap of faith. The timing seems right: Jacksonville is home for only the second time in its past six games. The four road games prior to today included a trip to London, an away win in Chicago, at Tennessee on a short week and then last week?s defeat at Kansas City. The latest loss saw the Jags outgain the Chiefs 449-231 while amassing 25 first downs to 10 for their host. Three lost fumbles and an interception did the Jags in on that day. Most notable is the sudden surge to a lethargic offence after Nathaniel Hackett replaced offensive coordinator Greg Olson. RB Chris Ivory cracked the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time and he could be effective against Houston?s 28th-ranked run defence. As mistake prone as Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has been, he?s still better than an inept Brock Osweiler as Houston?s quarterback has as many touchdown passes as interceptions (nine) and he has yet to win on the road this year in his new uniform. TAKING: JAGUARS -1?
Dolphins (4-4) at Chargers (4-5)
Chargers came through for us in this space last week as a favourite in a similar price range. But loyalties are temporary when it comes to picking against pointspreads and as a result, we won?t feel guilty when fading the Bolts this weekend. San Diego is known for playing close games, uncanny really. Even when scoring 43 last week and winning by eight, the Titans were knocking on the door near the end. Eight of nine San Diego games this season have been decided by one possession. It?s hard to imagine that a red-hot Miami team can?t stay close here or win this one outright. The Dolphins have improved greatly since the emergence of RB Jay Ajayi and not coincidently since Miami?s O-line has been back to full strength. Ajayi?s production and workload has taken pressure of QB Ryan Tannehill as the current three-game win streak has not included an interception. Fins should get some passing opportunities against San Diego?s iffy secondary. The Fish are 0-3 on road but that was at New England, Seattle and then Cincy on a short week. TAKING: DOLPHINS +4
Seahawks (5-2-1) at Patriots (7-1)
At least the schedule maker likes the Patriots, for this week anyway. Not only do the Seahawks have to fly all the way east on a short week to play the league?s top team, they arrive in New England with the Pats having had an extra week to prepare for their arrival. While many references will be made to the cliff-hanger Super Bowl that these two played in just two seasons ago, it will have no bearing on this contest. New England is equal or stronger than that group while the same can?t be said of the Seahawks. Seattle?s defence remains stellar, but stopping Tom Brady and his scary good offence is no easy task. Seattle?s offence is where the most notable difference is. The Seahawks have a brutal offensive line. That deficiency has sunk Seattle?s ground game to a 30th-ranked unit, averaging just 75 yards per game. Playing good ?D? and waiting for an opponent?s blunder is a strategy that won?t work for Seachickens here. Patriots haven?t been in primetime much this year. Watch them flaunt their stuff. TAKING: NEW ENGLAND ?7?
THE REST
Chiefs (6-2) at Panthers (3-5)
Chiefs aren?t sexiest of teams, but are proving to be quite proficient. Heck, at 6-2 they?d be leading five of the other seven divisions, but are currently a half game behind Oakland in the talented AFC West. When it all stacks up, taking points against the 3-5 Panthers is the prudent play here. Kansas City wins because they are careful with the ball. Currently on a four-game win streak, the Chiefs lead the league in turnover ratio at +13, with 20 takeaways and only seven giveaways. Carolina had those kind of numbers a year ago, but this year?s bunch has been much sloppier with just 11 takeaways compared to 17 giveaways, their -6 ratio ranking 26th in the league. The Panthers give up a lot more points and a ton more passing yards (305 vs. 256 yards per game) than today?s opponent. TAKING: CHIEFS +3
Broncos (6-3) at Saints (4-4)
We can understand why the Broncos were a one-point underdog in Oakland last week. Being a three-point dog here is more puzzling. Let?s be reminded that Denver is the reigning Super Bowl champion. The Saints did not see the post-season a year ago and they just pulled up to .500 last week with a win over the dreadful 49ers. Sure, the Saints can score points, but guess what? The Broncos are darn good at preventing them. Yes, Denver has offensive issues, but they can get remedied rather quickly here as they face New Orleans? 30th-ranked defensive unit, a group that has allowed the most passing yards in the league and the 30th most points. Denver has been bitten by the injury bug quite regularly lately, but it still has enough leaders and skilled position players to do battle here. TAKING: BRONCOS +3
Rams (3-5) at Jets (3-6)
Apple vs. Android this is not. The Jets are a mess. They?ve spent the week waiving dead-weight guys, signing practice-squad players from other rosters and trying to figure out who their starting quarterback will be. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick is ready to go (knee issues), is he someone to fear with his horrendous eight touchdown to 13 interception line? Defensive linemen Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson were benched last week for disciplinary reasons, which translates to not giving a hoot about their team under current conditions. Just not a team that you?d want to invest in and especially when they are required to give away some points here. Granted, the Rams have many issues of their own, not the least of which is at quarterback where Case Keenum continues to falter but with good defensive players strewn throughout their lineup, Rams earn our slight lean here. TAKING: RAMS +2
Falcons (6-3) at Eagles (4-4)
Yes, Eaglemania has died down after Philadelphia?s 3-0 start has suddenly evened out to 4-4, good for last place in the competitive NFC East. However, let?s be fair. Philly has not lost at home this season in three starts here. The Eagles have been on the road for four of the past five weeks with all four of those travels against teams currently sporting a winning record. Three of those away games were against each of the teams in Philadelphia?s division. The only home game during that extensive span was a decisive win over the Vikings, snapping Minnesota?s five-game winning streak. Falcons are solid and are certainly dangerous but they give up a lot of yardage. Maybe Carson Wentz and the Eagles? defence overachieved in the early going. But maybe a tough schedule and difficult situations has them undervalued here? We think the latter is more likely. TAKING: EAGLES +2
Vikings (5-3) at Redskins (4-3-1)
Minnesota?s offensive line has become a liability, minus both tackles and with starting guards rotating in and out of lineup all year. With such unsteadiness comes deficiency and the Vikings? anaemic offence is the victim here. This offence currently ranks dead last in total yards while the ground game sits 31st in a league of 32. Rushing for 2.7 yards per carry is just not going to work in this league. It?s not like the Vikes can turn to their passing game to bail them out as that unit ranks in lower tier as well. Minnesota has not won since coming off its bye three weeks ago while averaging just 12 points per game in this three-game slide. The marketplace seems to underestimate the Redskins. They?ve only lost once in past five games and they are well-rested for this home contest after a two-week break. TAKING: REDSKINS ?2?
Packers (4-4) at Titans (4-5)
The public still considers Green Bay among top teams while the Titans are equally perceived, but from the other end of the spectrum. That thinking suggests an inflated line here and one that spells danger. Truth be told, the Packers may not deserve this billing. They just lost at home to the Colts. The team is riddled with injuries and its offensive backfield is in shambles. Things are so bad back there that QB Aaron Rodgers has the team?s most rushing yards over the past two weeks. As good a passer that Rodgers is, it?s very difficult to be one-dimensional in this league. Defensively, the Pack are also beat up with several key secondary players on the limp. The Titans have improved offensively, scoring 26 or more in each of their past five games. At this price, they are more deserving of our support. TAKING: TITANS +3
Bears (2-6) at Buccaneers (3-5)
Not interested in a Tampa team that is not receiving a handful of points. The Bucs are basically required to win here to earn a cover and that?s something only a fool would rely on. With all of its quarterback, coaching and personnel changes, the Buccaneers have just three wins in past 20 tries on this field. Four games as hosts this season have produced zero wins and zero covers. While today?s visitor is only 2-6 overall, the Bears arrive here rested and confident after a tidy 20-10 triumph before their bye. That game saw QB Jay Cutler return to the field and the team perked up considerably. We know that Cutler can be erratic and moody, but he is certainly the preferred pivot at this price against sophomore QB Jameis Winston, who has regressed since an impressive rookie season. Winston and Tampa?s backfield are also nursing some pains. TAKING: BEARS ?1
49ers (1-7) at Cardinals (3-4-1)
How bad are the 49ers, you ask? So bad that a sub .500 team is nearly a two-touchdown favourite over them. There is good reason for this. Losers of seven straight, the Niners defence is a worn-out group that can?t stop its opponents due to fatigue, injuries and subpar players. This group ranks 32nd against the run, allowing an implausible 193 yards per game on the ground. Cleveland, the next highest, allows almost 50 yards less per game. Arizona RB David Johnson could set some sort of rushing record on this day. Don?t expect Johnson or his mates to overlook this opponent. The Cardinals are desperate for wins if they are able to crawl back to playoff contention. The Cards defeated this visitor by 47-7 on this field a year ago. The 49ers have not covered a road game this season. This could get ugly TAKING: CARDINALS ?13?
Cowboys (7-1) at Steelers (4-4)
The Cowboys have won and covered seven straight. Their only blemish was a one-point Week 1 loss to the Giants. When taking points this season, the ?Boys defeated both the Bengals and Packers by 14 points each. This isn?t a fluke. Dallas employs the league leading rusher in Ezekiel Elliott, averaging 111 yards per game, 20 yards better than next-best DeMarco Murray. Elliott?s skills combined with a strong offensive line have allowed rookie QB Dak Prescott to play smartly and the results are evident. Meanwhile, the Steelers can?t be counted on. Even QB Ben Roethlisberger?s return last week couldn?t stop the team?s losing streak, now up to three games. Also worth noting is that the NFC East has dominated the AFC North this season with a 7-0-1 mark straight up mark and 8-0 against the spread. Dallas too reliable this year to refuse point offered. TAKING: COWBOYS +2?
Bengals (3-4) at Giants (5-3)
LINE: NY GIANTS Even
Another AFC North team takes on a NFC East squad and, as noted above, that hasn?t worked out very well this year for the AFC side. Both teams tricky to figure out at times, but the Giants are hot right now (three straight wins) and this is a cheap price to pay against a Cincinnati team that has not covered a spread this year in five tries when traveling. In addition, Cincinnati?s wins have come against losing teams while all losses have occurred against teams that were above .500 when they met. For the Giants, QB Eli Manning has rekindled with WR Odell Beckham and the tandem have produced five touchdowns in the G-Men?s previous three games. While the Bengals? defensive numbers suggest aptitude, the secondary has been leaky, causing coaching staff to tinker with lineup this week. Host gets minor nod. TAKING: GIANTS Even
HOU @ JAX -2
Houston?s 32nd ranked pass-O will face off against Jacksonville?s 12th ranked pass-D, while Jacksonville?s 24th ranked pass-O will face off against Houston?s 7th ranked pass-D. Something?s got to give. Texans are 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, though they have faced off against NE, MIN, and DEN, some of the better teams in the league. Now they?ll take on the Jags, one of the worst teams. Jags are 0-3 SU and 0-2 ATS at home. Houston is coming off a BYE week, so had 2 weeks to prepare here. Jacksonville has now lost 3 straight, against beatable teams in OAK, TEN, and KC (no Smith/Ware). Last week though they gained 6.0 YPP to KC?s 4.1 YPP, registered 25 1st downs to KC?s 10, and gained almost 450 yards to KC?s 230. How the heck did they lose? Well, a 0-4 TO-differential had mostly to do with it. But it?s important to note that Jacksonville dominated this top-10 KC offense last week, while their own D did it?s job against the Chiefs. For Jacksonville, it doesn?t get more ?beatable? than Houston though, which just like the Jags, are one of the worst teams in the NFL. One major potential issue for Houston is the fact that AJ Bouye injured his ankle in Friday?s practice. He?s listed as questionable and ?could? play this week, but frankly, getting injured this late in the week is bad news. Why am I mentioning Bouye, a CB most people have never heard of? Well, because he?s the #1 ranked corner by PFF, one of two with a grade above 90 (Talib, another injured corner, is the other one). Remember, Houston is without Kevin Johnson, the 7th ranked corner. This pass-D might not be as tough in this meeting as the ranking indicates. Of course the way to attack both defenses is via the run as JAC ranks 27th and HOU 28th defending it. There?s also significant RLM to consider in this game, as about 30% of the wagers is on the home team, yet the line moved from +1.5 to -2 now. I lean JAX in this one as I think the two teams mirror each other pretty well: crappy QB?s, crappy offenses, good pass-D?s, bad run-D. The fact that Houston could be down two of their top corners (elite corners at that), plus with Jags playing at home, gives Jacksonville enough of an edge with the line under a FG. Lean: JAX -2
KC @ CAR -3
The Chiefs struggled mightily last week as they were without Smith and Ware. Both are back this week. The Panthers barely squeezed out a win against the Rams, though they were NOT the better team. Panthers got outgained 339 to 244 yards, and 5.1 YPP to only 3.9 YPP. Rams had over 100 yards in penalty yardage and a costly turnover, which was pretty much the difference in the game. Bottom line is that the Panthers were NOT the better team last week, yet they?re once again a full FG favorite in this matchup. My model has CAR -1 in this one, providing solid value on the visitors. One key factor to consider is that the Panthers are once again without Ryan Kalil, their best offensive lineman. They?re also without Oher (though he stinks), making this O-line very thin coming into this matchup. The Chiefs have a top-10 pass-D, and if they can contain these Carolina receivers, Newton could get battered once again. I expect a very tight game here with the points being very valuable. Lean: KC +3
DEN @ NO -3
I have this one -1 NO, so once again the road team has plenty of value. The Saints are 4-1 in the last 5 games, but it?s not like they?ve dominated. They were lucky to come back against the Chargers (won by 1), held off the Panthers at home (won by 3), lost @ KC, and held on against the Seahawks, who simply ran out of time while they were driving late for a game winning TD (won by 5). Denver is a good team, and there?s no reason NOT to expect a close game. It hurts that the Broncos are without Talib and Wolfe, but this defense is still plenty talented. Of course their run-D is the weak point and the Saints have a pretty efficient running attack all of a sudden. Still, the Broncos are 7-2 ATS as an underdog the last few years while the Saints are 7-16 ATS as a favorite over the same time-span. Lean: DEN +3
LAR @ NYJ -1
This Rams D shut down Cam Newton last week, so what do you think they?ll do to Fitzpatrick, who is the WORST starter in the league. It?s not even close actually. Now dealing with a knee issue, and facing a healthy Rams D-line (remember, their key player missed some games a few weeks back), this one could be a disaster for the Jets. It won?t help that Clady and Mangold are out once again. Rams rank 7th in run-D and their D-line is #2 in stopping the run. I doubt New York will be able to lean on Forte in this one. While I also expect the Jets D to stop LA?s run-game, there is one factor that is in the Rams? favor: offensive playmakers in the passing game. Jets have Brandon Marshall and Enunwa somewhat. The Rams though, have Austin, Britt, Quick, and Kendricks, who are all capable offensive weapons. I think you also have to give the edge to Keenum in this one, as he?s healthier, and (I can?t believe I?m about to write this!) a better QB in this matchup. Jet?s 30th ranked pass-D is also a factor in visitor?s favor. LA is playing on the East Coast, in the 1 PM EST time-slot, but I?d be willing to overlook that this week as they?re the ?better? team in the matchup. Lean: LAR +1
ATL @ PHI +1
The best QB in the league is Matt Ryan: #1 in DYAR; #2 in DVOA; #3 in QBR; #3 in PY/A @ 8.5 with 23:4 TD:INT ratio and 70% Completion %. Wentz isn?t close: #23 in DYAR; #24 in DVOA; #29 in QBR; #29 in PY/A @ 6.2 with 9:5 TD:INT ratio and 65% Completion %. Clearly there?s a huge advantage for ATL at the most important position. They?ve also had 10-days to rest/prepare for this one. Trufant is out for the Falcons, and though a factor, it?s not as big as McKelvin being downgraded to limited practices on Thur and Fri. I think McKelvin sits, but even if he plays, he?s not going to keep up with Julio Jones. Philly?s corners overall are horrible and I expect the best offense in the league to take full advantage. The question is can Wentz effectively lead the offense in this matchup? Atlanta is 21st defensively and does give up a ton of points. Philly is 1-4 SU/ATS on the road but this team is 3-0 SU/ATS at home. The Falcons are only 4-16 ATS as favorites in the last 20 matchups. As ?appealing? as it looks to back the Falcons, I think you have to side with the home dog in this one, especially the one looking to break a 2-game losing streak. Lean: PHI +1
MIN @ WAS -2.5
I have this one at WAS -1, so not much value here as long as the spread is below a FG. The luster has come off the Vikings after their 5-0 start, as this team is mired in a 3-game losing streak. Their O-Coordinator quit, the O-line is horrendous, and losing to Detroit at home in OT had to be demoralizing last week. Washington ranks 4th in ASR% and has a 13th ranked pass-D. This is a tough matchup for Minnesota?s offense. It should be equally tough for Washington?s too. Stud LT Trent Williams is out for 4 weeks (suspension), DeSean Jackson is going to sit, they?re starting an undrafted rookie at RB, and Vikings are getting Kendricks back. Minnesota is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year and 16-5 ATS in the last few years. Washington is 1-2 ATS as a favorite and 2-8 ATS in the last few years. Lean: MIN +2.5
GB @ TEN +3
Aaron Rodgers ranks 5th in QBR / 13th in DVOA, but he?s 40th in PY/A with 5.8. League average mark is 6.5 PY/A, so you can see how bad Rodgers has been in that area. He?s fairly efficient, but there?s virtually zero big play ability in this Packers offense. Luckily for them, they get to face off against the Titans? 27th ranked pass-D. Plus they?re getting Cobb back and maybe even Starks. Tennessee is a hard team to back. They?re good enough to cover spreads but they continue to be so mistake prone that they?re failing to do so on a regular basis. Last week they had two TO?s returned for TD?s. The team is 3-6 ATS though they should be 5-4 ATS at least (Vikings and Chargers games). Green Bay off two straight losses is in a ?must win? spot of sorts, and the defensive advantage (#8 vs #26) has to give them an edge in this one. Lean: GB -3
CHI @ TB +2.5
The Bears are 2-6 ATS, 0-2 ATS as favorites this year, and 2-6 ATS as favorites over the last few years. Bucs are 0-4 ATS at home but 15-16 ATS as an underdog (3-4 ATS as an underdog this year). The ATS numbers indicate to be very careful with Chicago as listed ?favorites?, especially on the road, though let?s not forget that this is a new regime in charge. Due to this, it?s easy to pass on them. The Bears have gotten very healthy over their BYE week, getting all their defensive starters back plus Sitton/Long for the O-line. They are a better team, no doubt. Tampa has 3 wins: vs ATL in week 1 (have no clue how they won that one), @ SF, and @ CAR when Cam Newton was out. Basically, this team is 0-5 SU/ATS against every other opponent that is ?better? than them, besides ATL in week 1. I think they?re a fade every time with a favorable spread (under a FG) and facing a superior team. Lean: CHI -2.5
MIA @ SD -4.5
The Chargers were lucky to cover last week as TEN allowed two turnovers to be returned for TD?s. The overall matchup was pretty even with SD @ 6.5 YPP and TEN @ 6.3. The Dolphins are off 3 straight wins and making their way all the way across the country for this one. They?ve beaten PIT (when Roethilisberger got hurt), BUF (without McCoy), and the NYJ, arguably the worst team in the league. All games were at home, and now Miami is going on the road where they are 0-3 this season. The Dolphins are also a run-oriented team now, with Ajayi playing like a monster. Their 2nd ranked rushing-O will take on a mediocre 19th ranked SD run-D. If Miami can control the clock with their run-game, they?ll be in this one. If San Diego gets out to a quick lead (and Miami?s secondary is pretty bad so that?s very doable), this one could be over. Tannehill just isn?t good enough to carry a team. My model has this one at -4.8, so this one is a pass for me. PASS
SF @ ARZ -14
I got this one at -11.5 ARZ so value?s on the road team. Let?s not forget that this is a divisional matchup, so the teams are fairly familiar with one another. Those types of games are often closer than most assume they?d be. Cardinals rank 17th overall in the NFL. They have an elite defense, but their offense is only 26th and their ST?s are 30th. This team shouldn?t be this big of a favorite against a divisional opponent. Lean: SF +14
DAL @ PIT -2.5
Is this the week when Dallas? winning streak ends? Remember, they lost Claiborne and Church, their best two players in the secondary, last week. Though Cleveland couldn?t take advantage of it, Steelers surely could. Roethlisberger didn?t look fully healthy last week but he played much better in the 4th quarter against the Ravens, and I?d expect him to be fully healthy for this game. He?s also getting Ladarius Green for this one, so Steelers will have plenty of weapons to attack this over-achieving Dallas defense. Remember, Pittsburgh got their key players back healthy last week and I expect them to be even better at home in this matchup. In off-season this line was -6 PIT. It?s below a FG now. I think Steelers will bring this Dallas team down to Earth a bit this week. Lean: PIT -2.5
Rams/Jets will indeed raw a lot of attention because of Petty starting but I am not sure there is anywhere to go with it - a pick'em game between two teams that won't be able to run the ball well, forcing some bad QBs to be putting the ball in the air perhaps more than the coaches would like, is a recipe for randomness in the outcome, the game more likely to be decided by which QB makes the most mistakes, rather than the most good plays. As for line adjustment a proper starting point is that Fitzpatrick was dead last among starting QBs with a 67.6 Passer Rating, so any adjustment can only go so far. And of course for comparison across the field Keenum is #29 at 77.2.
Delaware vs. Bradley
Play: Under 137
Bradley and Delaware both struggled with their division two opponents and now play each other in Peoria. The Braves are traditionally a more methodical team although they did score 70 points in game one. Each of these teams are breaking in a lot of new players in their rotation and neither is particularly quick. The Blue Hens played a much lower scoring game winning only 64-56. They don't have a ton of options so they have to rely on their defense. Bradley has gone under in 15 of their last 25 home games. Delaware has gone under in 23 of their last 42 games as an underdog. This game was a 70-47 UD win last year with more talent. We'll see another lower scoring contest in this one.
HORNETS AT CAVALIERS
PLAY: HORNETS +8
There?s not much debate that the Cavaliers are going to once again be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. They?re the best team in that sector by a pretty substantial margin and they know it.
But that doesn?t mean there aren?t spots where taking a good number of points and trying to grab a cover makes plenty of sense. I think that?s the case today as Charlotte pays a visit to the reigning champs.
The Hornets are playing very good basketball. They?re 6-2 to start the season and the two losses were close. I?m quite confident that Charlotte will be looking at this as a very big game, so asking for max effort isn?t a stretch.
As for the Cavs, they?re 7-1, so there doesn?t appear to be a hangover, which sometimes can afflict championship teams, particularly early in the season. The champs are taking care of business for the most part.
I?ll make a case, however, that this Charlotte team might be legit. They were 48-34 last season and if the first 10% of the new campaign is an indicator, the Hornets could very well be a team that ends up owning a top four seed in the Eastern Conference come playoff time.
The Cavs won three of the four meetings between these teams last season, and they?ll probably take this one as well. But I think there?s a bit of value at the price with the underdog. I expect Charlotte to compete here, and I?ll go ahead and grab the eight with the Hornets to produce a spread win.
Lakers vs. Wolves
Play: Lakers +4?
The Lakers have covered the spread five of the last six meetings and 13 of the last 16 in Minnesota which, of course, includes some bad Lakers teams. However, the Lakers appear to be much improved this season under new coach Luke Walton having won five of their last six games. The Lakers blew out New Orleans 126-99 last night as they shot 55.3 percent overall and sank 16 of 30 three-point attempts. Jordan Clarkson led his team with 23 points D'Angelo Russell added 22 points while Julius Randle grabbed 11 rebounds against the Pelicans. The Timberwolves also played on Saturday night but lost 119-105 to the Clippers to lower their record to 2-6 both straight up and ATS. The Clippers were coming off a tough, two-point win in Oklahoma City the night before but still had no trouble with the Timberwolves.
In the Sights, Sunday Hoops?
Don Monson and Long Beach State annually play the toughest non-conference schedule of any program in college basketball, a way to grab some paychecks for the athletic department, and also toughen up for Big West Conference play down the line. This time around it is taken to an entirely different level, the next 10 days arguably the toughest cycle any team has ever attempted, and I believe the biggest headache game through that cycle is this evening, which puts #728 WICHITA STATE (8:00 Eastern) into play, with -9 available in the morning trading and this one good up to -10.
Here is how it lays out ? the 49ers are in Wichita this evening, then at North Carolina Tuesday, Louisville Thursday, UCLA Sunday and Washington the following Tuesday. That is brutal not just for the quality of opponents but also length of travel across multiple time zones. It might have been somewhat manageable without tonight?s game, but when LBS accepted a spot in part of the Battle4Atlantis ? Mainland, this one got added late to the tour.
Tonight the 49ers will come in ill-prepared for the tpe of game that will be played, a physical grinder that negates their strength ? the ability to get out into the open court with multiple scorers ? and exacerbates their weaknesses, which are size, depth and toughness. Monson highlighted those problems as part of his pre-season focus - ?This team is probably as good offensively as I?ve had for a while. But it needs some guys to do the dirty work and it needs some guys to rebound and defend and do some other things.?
Wichita is all about those lunch pail aspects of the sport. While losing long-time mainstays Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet would be difficult for any program, Gregg Marshall has a deep, athletic and talented rotation, one that got a chance to develop ahead of schedule with a trip to Canada back in early August. Part of that development was an array of full-court presses to utilize the particular talents on hand, and you could see some of those designs in Friday?s 85-39 rout of South Carolina State, when a dozen Shockers played at least 10 minutes, none of them going more than 20.
There will be times in the early season when Wichita will struggle to score, caught up in half-court games in which the offensive chemistry will be a work in progress. But tonight there will be plenty of opportunities in the open floor, and I anticipate Marshall?s bunch wearing down an opponent with much less depth. And while a victory here would be a feather in the cap for the Shockers, the 49ers aren?t really out to grab wins on this trip, and with the short turnaround before playing North Carolina Monson will need to get some of his inexperienced players some action tonight. That is where this one can break open.
I see a nice edge in #713 Eastern Michigan over SMU this afternoon. Early in the season its best to catch teams with returning minutes and points against teams without. Such is the case as Eastern Michigan (2015 RPI .527) returns nine players who averaged double digits while SMU returns 3. EMU returns over 3 players who averaged double digits in points while SMU 1. EMU gets 12 points in this contest. I chart this a one or two basket game. I am on the visiting dog EMU.
It may all come down to how much impact Friday night had on the Eagles - to lose in double overtime at Pittsburgh, and then have to come back for an afternoon tip-off two days later, is a difficult turnaround. I might be inclined to look towards the +7 for the first half there for part of the ticket, since there is a concern about the staying power of the visitor. They played a terrific game on Friday; to play that well and loose can zap a little spirit.
