01:00 PM NFL [456] TOTAL u47-150 (B+2) (TB BUCCANEERS vrs KC CHIEFS)
01:00 PM NFL [463] BAL RAVENS +9-160 (B+2)
04:05 PM NFL [467] MIA DOLPHINS +2.5 -155 (B+2)
04:25 PM NFL [472] SEA SEAHAWKS -4.5 -150 (B+2)
01:00 PM NFL [1454] 1H DET LIONS -3.5 -110
07:30 PM CBB [535] Xavier -4.5 -110
09:30 PM CBB [552] Central Florida +15.5 -110
05:05 PM NHL [4] Carolina Hurricanes -150
1 unit bet pays 85 ....betdsi line ... close again! yesterday's 8 teamer lost just due to Penguins...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Detroit (-6.5) over Jacksonville
The Jaguars just make too many mistakes. Yes, Blake Bortles is the king of garbage time points, both on the scoreboard and in fantasy circles, but it won't be enough in Detroit. The Lions are quietly playing some good football. Since October 9 the Lions are 4-1 S.U. with wins over the Eagles, Rams, Redskins, and Vikings. Their only loss was at the Houston Texans in a defensive battle. Detroit should have little difficulty scoring at home versus Jacksonville and the Jags will continue to make mistakes on the offensive side of the football. With Minnesota and Green Bay just not looking that great, the Lions know that each winnable game is one they have to take care of business in. This Division is wide open and the Lions are starting to believe in themselves. Lay the points here as Detroit wins 34-17.
Steelers vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8
The Steelers are on a 3 game losing streak, and not looking very good of late, and are fade material here on the road . Note: PITTSBURGH is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and HC Tomlin is 9-18 ATS L/27 against lower tier teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of a ugly record are a team, that's desperate for a victory. Just one win , and than their free to tank, so that they can pick up North Carolina's super star under center Mitch Trubisky a Cleveland native in the draft. I know this one smells like a Norwegian fish market, but please just plug your nose, close your eyes and pull the trigger.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Browns - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 29-9 ATS L/38 opportunities.
Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Buffalo
Even with their already being a mid-week adjustment on this line, the better team is still getting points. While Cincinnati is off a brutal one-point loss Monday night (which may have sunk their season), Buffalo has been waiting in the wings, set to come off its bye week. The Bills are simply better. Take the points.
Buffalo has been somewhat all over the place this season, They opened 0-2 and fired their offensive coordinator. Then, they rattled off a four-game win streak (covering every game) and looked like one of the better teams in the league. Since that time, they've lost three in a row, including a hard-fought game at Seattle two weeks ago. After facing the Patriots and Seahawks in the L2 games, this most definitely is a drop in class for the Bills. Despite the losing record, Rex Ryan's team has actually outscored opponents by 34 points this year.
Cincy is not only at a situational disadvantage here, they are faced w/ the fact that they may very well be a team on the decline. They have just three wins and two of them are at the Browns and Jets' expense. That Browns win is their lone victory since September. They average just 20.8 PPG, so they are not a good candidate to be laying points at this time. There was a time (1989-2010) when they'd lost 10 straight to Buffalo. They've won the L3 meetings, but that streak ends Sunday.
Teaser - Lions Pk & Seahawks Pk
Needing the Lions and Seahawks just to win at home looks good....I know Seattle might be a bit sluggish, but the offense also week looked great against the Pats...Although I can't stand this Seahawks team, that game and outcome on both sides of the ball is just what they needed...Philly isn't all that great and the offense with a young Carson Wentz will struggle...Philly had some success last week running the ball, so I expect Philly to muck this game up a little bit. The killer for Philly will the the combo of the butter finger WR's...They drop the ball in the most crucial spots..You can't do that in this zoo of a stadium against this defense...Philly will have issue hearing in this place and Wentz has never dealt with a road game like he will see tonight....Philly backend opened up after Carroll went out with a concussion...He might play this week, but the Philly secondary still has issue...Russell Wilson looks far more mobile right now and that alone is key for the Seahawks...It will be a close game for a bit, but in the end the Eagles dropped passes and mistakes will haunt them.
I like this one enough to lay the 6.5, but it very well could be a tad close..Why not just tease the Lions here...Detroit hasn't been bad and a BYE week will do them wonders...Jags just don't have it this year...Another road game for them and asking the Jags to win looks very tough...Detroit has the running game and passing game working well with Stafford..I think they put together a solid scripted game plan to start out the game..Id also consider Lions 1st qtr and 1st half wager as well.
In the Sights, NFL?
When line moves take place these days there are a variety of ways to take advantage, and with the Vikings being pushed form pick?em to -2.5 late-week it sets one up here, with #460 Minnesota Team Total Under (1:00 Eastern), 20.5 having become the going rate. To get rewarded with a win if the Vikings land on 20 is significant here.
Thee isn?t much need for deep detail on the struggles of the Minnesota offense, with a pedestrian skill cast that needs good play from the OL to open up things up for them, but that line is playing as poorly as any in the league, and as a result it has been over a month since they last topped 20 in a game, averaging 14.0 over the last four outings. A ground game managing just 2.7 per carry may not be fixable with the current components, which continues to force down-and-distance situations the passing game is not good enough to overcome. Now the one strength that has emerged, Sam Bradford connecting with Stefon Diggs (61 catches), also gets neutralized through the presence of Patrick Peterson, making it an even greater uphill challenge for the Vikings to produce.
Eagles vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 42?
With both teams coming off huge wins last week, I think we are going to see both come out a bit flat here and that's going to end up leading to a defensive battle between two of the leagues' top defensive teams. Seattle comes in 9th in total defense (Top 10 against both the run and the pass) and Philadelphia is 7th in total defense. On top of that, I think this is a bad matchup for both offenses. Philadelphia's strength defensively is their front 7 and I look for their defensive line to have their way with Seattle's offensive line. At the same time, I think the books is out on Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense. The Seahawks aren't going to let him have a big day on their home turf and Philadelphia offense hasn't been as productive on the road.
New England at San Francisco
Play: New England -12.5
Not often that we will look to lay double digits on the road in the NFL, but we are making a rare exception here. The Patriots looked terrible last week against Seattle coming out of the bye. While the 49ers normally wouldn't get a great deal of attention from the Patriots, last weeks performance brings out the best of Bill's bunch here.
Despite giving the Cardinals all it could take last week, the 49ers were still outgained 6.0 to 4.6 yards per play. It was a +3 turnover edge that kept the game close. Only once since opening day have the Niners won the ypp battle and even in that game it lost on the screboard by 18 points.
DALLAS -7 over Baltimore
The Ravens crushed the Browns 28-7 on Thursday Night Football after Cleveland took a lead into halftime. After two straight division wins, Baltimore now finds itself atop the AFC North but it?s all smoke and mirrors. The Ravens other victory during this modest two game win streak was against the Steelers with a half crippled Ben Roethlisberger playing. The Ravens are not good and their body of work this season supports that. Their other wins have come over Buffalo, Jacksonville and Cleveland again. They've lost every game they've played against anyone half decent including the Raiders, Redskins, Giants and Jets and we don?t consider the Jets or Giants decent.
Tony Romo said it best on Sunday when he was caught on camera saying ?it's his time? into his headset. Romo knows what Jerry Jones refuses to admit; this is Dak Prescott's team. For all the deserved praise the rookie signal caller has gotten, we would be remiss if we didn't use this space to talk about how great the Cowboys' offensive line is. They give Dak time to throw and the holes they create for rookie runner Eziekel Elliot have made him a fantasy football legend in just half a season. The Cowboys are on a different level right now and their win over the Steelers on Sunday was one of those season defining games. They went on the road into a very hostile environment, overcame an early turnover that led to Steeler points and they closed the game out with a touchdown drive in the final seconds to win it.
Analytics are big in baseball and hockey but advance stats aren't yet the rage in the NFL. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. It's basically a more accurate representation of where a team is at beyond the surface stats. The Ravens offense ranks dead last when it's weighted against the other teams in the league. Their opponents this week in Dallas are 2nd. After playing the eighth ranked Steelers, the Cowboys are taking a big step down in competition when they host Baltimore on Sunday. When the oddsmakers put a ?hook? on a key number like seven, we always have to take a closer look. That half point can be enough to sway bettors to the dog and we think the books have done just that. Furthermore, this is a classic sandwich game for Dallas, as they have the Redskins on deck for their annual Thanksgiving Day game on Thursday. The propensity after that big win over Pittsburgh would be a letdown but we?re not anticipating that here. Dallas has huge momentum and have not let up yet so we see no reason for a step back here. There is a colossal difference in class between these two teams and when it?s all said and done, the colossal difference in class will likely be reflected on the scoreboard.
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Play: Ravens +7?
Fresh off a lucky winner with the Saints on Thursday, Teddy is now 64-43 (60%) in the NFL since the start of 2015. And fresh off an easy 3 TD winner with Kansas State on Saturday, Teddy is now hitting 67% with his Big Ticket Reports over the past five weeks. Get the best of both worlds with his Big Ticket 'Wrong Team Favored' winner on Sunday!
No team in the NFL is hotter than Dallas, winning and covering each and every game since their Week 1 home loss to the Giants. Over the last month, they?ve won tough road games at Green Bay and Pittsburgh. But at home, they were lucky to get past Philadelphia and even luckier to cover the spread in overtime; continuing a long term trend of struggles to cover as a home favorite throughout the Jason Garrett era.
The Cowboys left it all on the field with their big win over the Steelers last week, a wild game that went back and forth through the final minute. Up next? A huge divisional showdown against hated rival Washington on Thanksgiving Day; a short week ahead. In between? This non-conference affair against a Ravens team; a game they?ve got to win by more than a TD to cover the spread. For Dallas to overcome this flat spot, they?d need an opponent they can just steamroll, like they did to the Browns a few weeks back.
But the Ravens aren?t getting steamrolled by anyone these days ? all four previous losses for this first place squad have come by eight points or less; competitive games. John Harbaugh?s defense is ranked #1 in the NFL against the run (yards per rush) and #3 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Their offense finally found some rhythm running no-huddle in the second half last week, turning a 7-6 deficit into a 28-7 victory. And, let?s not forget ? Baltimore?s in first place right now; just like Dallas; a capable football team. Too many points!
Tennessee Titans +3
There is nothing more important in sports betting than getting to the party on time. With the linemaker adjusting more quickly than ever, it is vital, that as a handicapper, we react quickly to changes in the fortunes of a team. When that happens to opposing teams in the same game, it is imperative that we take advantage. We are bucking a lot of history in making this underdog call. But, the reality of the performance of these teams is a long way from the public?s continued perception. The linemaker and public continue to perceive the Colts as being a team that looks to enjoy the same success as they did in the waning years of QB Manning and the outset of the career of QB Luck. It is so easy to fall into the trap that the Colts? earlier victory of 34-26 at Tennessee is a sign that not much has changed between these teams. Nothing could be further from the truth. The history book says that, under QB Luck, the Colts are 18-4 SU in divisional play and have won 10 straight games against these Titans. They are also 9-2 ATS coming off their BYE week. That was at a time when the Colts had among the best line play in the league. Now, an aging roster has grown long in the tooth with a DL unable to provide much pressure on opposing QBs and an OL that is in shambles allowing Luck to be sacked 34 times this season.
On the other sideline is a Tennessee team, whose past transgressions are etched in the mind of the public. There are bad historical numbers everywhere you look, including a run of 1-12 ATS when coming off a victory. That is their role this week, as they enter following a trouncing of a fading Green Bay team in which they outrushed the Packers 30/162 to 13/69 and profited from a (+3) net TO margin. But, if you think there is going to be a letdown off that win, then you underestimate the hunger of this team in this division rivalry as well as their great improvement. The Titans haven?t been to the playoff party in 7 years. At last, however, the defense has improved. Credit DC LeBeau (Pittsburgh), who brings the Titans in with a defense that is better across the board than the Colts, including 42 YPG. They also feature the superior offense across the board. Most particularly, consider their 30/146/4.9 running numbers as compared to the Colts? 24/98/4.1. That running offense for the Titans is No. 3 in the league, trailing only Buffalo and Dallas. Each of these teams comes off an upset of Green Bay (the Colts prior to their BYE week) and each of these teams trails Houston for the division lead by 2 losses. Today, however, we know who the better team will be as they take the field. And, it is not the one perceived in the eyes of the linemaker and public. Reborn Titans? offense has averaged 33 PPG L6G behind Mariota, who has a 17/3 ratio. Along with the better running game and defense, we will take the superior team as dog to break the stranglehold of the Colts in this series.
Chicago +7? over N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants don't win them by much but for four weeks now they have won by a touchdown or less. They currently have the fourth best record in the NFC which is impressed by any team over .500 this year. These next two games - the Bears and Browns ? figure to be wins before the schedule gets very tough for the final five games. The Giants certainly have not played in a way that suggests that they are one of the top teams in the conference but welcome to 2016. The G-men had to rally against the pitiful Bengals on Monday night. They struggled to a 17-10 win over the Rams. They lost to both Minnesota and Green Bay while scoring 10 and 16 points respectively. They overcame the Saints earlier in the year and scored just 16 in a three-point victory. The list for the Giants goes on and on of low scoring games that get decided in the final few minutes. After a big Monday night win and with Cleveland on deck, this looks like one of those troubling spots that result in an upset.
The Giants are perhaps the most overvalued team in the NFL so let?s recap. Their best defensive player blew up his hand and is playing with a lobster claw. The Giants coach is offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, master of the tight end fade route. You younger Giant fans who missed out on the Ray Handley era are experiencing that treat now. Then there?s Eli Manning. Has there ever been a more accomplished yet less respected athlete in history? No one fears Eli. Even his own fans clown him. This man has won two Super Bowls, has thrown for a bazillion yards and has been the most durable quarterback since Brett Favre. Somewhere under that dopey exterior is the black heart of a bloodthirsty competitor? a man driven by perceived disrespect and sibling non-rivalry. Only we don?t see that man. All we see is the dumbest kid at your seven-year-old?s birthday party. The Giants offensive line is still god awful, forcing Little Eli to scramble around in desperate search of either an open wideout or his mawmaw?s warm embrace. Combine that line with McAdoo?s offense, along with a running game destined to average 0.0003 yards per carry, and Manning is gonna get his throat ripped open at some point. We honestly have no idea how the Giants win football games and we?re sure as hell not going to miss taking back 7?-points against them here.
There are sources that say that the Bears are already tanking it this year and that they don't want to play with Jay Cutler. The defense has been very good when at home and not good at all when they leave. The offense struggled all year to post points and judging by last week's 26 point loss in Tampa Bay, that is a trend that is not going to go away. The Bears lose Alshon Jeffery for four weeks due to a suspension for performance enhancing drugs, which his fantasy owners can readily attest were not working anyway. Jay Cutler was accused of not preparing to play the Buccaneers and his stand-offish ways would result in the Bears switching quarterbacks if they had anyone decent to use. The point of all this is that the Bears are a total mess but the media blows everything out of proportion, especially when it comes to tearing down an individual. The Chicago media, like most, are relentless and cruel when someone or a group is at their worst. More often than not, however, that group will respond with a solid effort. Nobody, not even the media really know what the dynamics are in the locker room when it is closed. We have seen Cutler rise to the occasion before and it would surprise us not if he rose to the occasion here. This wager, however, is still more about fading a team that has trouble scoring seven points and that remains grossly overvalued.
Philadelphia +6? over SEATTLE
Over and under-reactions are a big part of our handicapping theories and it really doesn?t get any better than this. Seattle was given little chance of going into Foxborough last week and defeating the Patriots as a 7?-point pooch. Then something strange happened. The Seahawks looked flawless while the Patriots looked heavily flawed and the result was an outright victory for the visitor. Going into Week 10, Seattle had not played a single quarter, half or game that resembled anything we saw from them last week. Yes indeed, Russell Wilson looked like his old self. Yes indeed, the Seahawks defense stepped up when it mattered most just like they did in their hey-day. We are now going to attempt to take advantage of the market overreaction. Seattle goes from a 7?-point dog to a 6?-point favorite in the span of one week against a very good team. That?s a swing of 14 points from one week to the next and it is so wrong. Never put too much emphasis on one game but that is precisely what this market is doing. That win over New England raises the Seahawks stock through the roof but it also pointed out that the rushing defense is not nearly as good as the passing defense. That bodes well for the Eagles. Besides, the Seahawks have turned in more ugly performances this year than impressive ones.
The Eagles rediscovered the ground game, and just in time. Ryan Mathews rushed for over 100 yards and scored twice to help the Eagles to a 24-15 win over the Falcons on Sunday. That puts them at 5-4 and in position to compete down a difficult homestretch. Holding the Falcons to 15 points is something. Strong on defense and special teams, the Eagles appear to be at their best when they're playing an opportunistic, ball-control style on the offensive side. We see absolutely no reason for them to get away from that formula here. This is a smart coaching staff coming off a very nice win to get the Eagles back on track. Philadelphia has far better unity than last season's squad and has the talent and coaching to make this one very competitive. Philly outright is tempting but Pete Carroll always comes out smelling like a rose so we?ll take the more cautious approach and grab the points.
Buffalo +125 over CINCINNATI
This pits a stumbling Bengals' team against the Bills who have just suffered through a bad patch in the schedule more than played poorly. At 3-5-1, the season is already all but lost for the Bengals since there is no reason to expect any improvement from OC Ken Zampese's first year. A 10-year old with Madden Football experience could call a better game than the idiot that the Bengals hired. With an offensive scheme that is only nine games old and described as "stale and predictable, Andy Dalton looks like a deer caught in the headlights. The decline in the defense doesn?t help the Bengals either. The Bengals three wins occurred against the Jets by one point in Week 1, against Week 4 Miami on a Thursday night and against Cleveland.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off back-to-back losses to Seattle and New England in which they scored 25 points in both games. The last two weak teams that the Bills played, San Fran and the Rams, Buffalo won both times while outscoring that pair, 75-35. The Bills other two wins came against New England and Arizona. So while the Bengals look worse every week against weak competition, the Bills are playing some inspired football. The Buffalo Bills are much better than their record. They just are not better than their schedule but that all likely changes here. Buffalo outright.
MINNESOTA -2? over Arizona
An optimist might say that there was good, bad and ugly in the Cardinals' win over San Francisco on Sunday. Arizona returned to the passing game after the 49ers made it a priority to stop David Johnson, whom the Cardinals leaned heavily on during the first half of the season after defenses focused on taking away their vertical passing game. Sunday was a breakthrough for Arizona, to some degree, as it returned to the passing game with two 100-yard receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. That?s nice but that was against the putrid 49ers and the Cards needed a FG on the final play of the game to win by three against a San Fran team coming off three losses by 18, 17 and 29 points to New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Buffalo respectively. Carson Palmer looks decrepit and lost out there and now Arizona takes a massive step up in class this week when facing the Vikes defense. If Arizona scores anything, it?ll be shocking.
The plight of the Vikings is sure an interesting one. Not many 5-4 teams create the sense of gloom and doom as the Vikings have. After an amazing stretch of five games won largely thanks to a defense that both scored and prevented opponents from scoring, it doesn't work the same anymore. Coming off their Week 6 bye, this has not been the same team. The defense is not as good and the offense has continued to decline. OC Norv Turner committed a sort of hara-kiri rather than take the ride down. For a team that suddenly looked like the power of the NFC East for a time, the Vikings look more like a team that is becoming unraveled with no reason to assume a turn around. The Vikings asked Sam Bradford to throw the ball 40 times on Sunday, and their leading rusher (Matt Asiata) ran for 16 yards. They returned to a number of the negative plays coach Mike Zimmer had sought to eliminate, and after the 26-20 loss to the Redskins on Sunday, guard Alex Boone said, "It's like teams know what we're doing now." Ya think, Alex? Anyway, the point is that the Vikings stock is very low and now they?re underpriced because of it. This now becomes the best time in a long time to buy some Minnesota stock and that is precisely what we are going to do. The Cardinals scare nobody.
Dolphins -1
The big news going into this game is the Rams will be debuting rookie Jared Goff. This might not seem like a big deal, given how much the offense was struggling under quarterback Case Keenum. I'm sure even some people might view it as an upgrade. I'm not one of them. After watching Goff struggle the way he did on Hard Knocks, I wasn't surprised at all that LA waited this long to make the switch.
I know Fisher has said that he's not going to rush a rookie into action, but you don't trade up for the No. 1 pick and not expect to play him right away. Not in today's NFL. I personally think the Rams realized they made a mistake with Goff and were simply trying to save face by pushing back his debut.
I also think there's something to say about how Keenum reacted to losing his job. Given how poorly he has played, you wouldn't expect him to be so upset about losing the job, unless he feels that he gives the team the better chance to win. I get the feeling the Rams players don't think Goff has what it takes and if they aren't behind this move, things are going to go south in a hurry.
All of this and I haven't even mentioned that the Dolphins are arguably the better team here and come into this game on a roll, having won 4 straight. While Jay Ajayi and the running game is getting all the praise right now, I've really been impressed with the play of Ryan Tannehill, who I think is now on the same page with head coach and quarterback guru Adam Gase. The perception here is that this isn't a great matchup for Miami, because the Rams have such a talented defensive line. While it's definitely talented, it's much better at getting after the quarterback than stopping the run. LA is only 17th in the league against the run, giving up 103.1 ypg. On top of that, they could be missing two key pieces up front, as Quinn and Brockers are both questionable.
I just think there's too much value here with Miami not to take a shot on the Dolphins in this spot, as I just feel there's a much greater chance that Goff fails in his debut than comes out and lights the world on fire.
BEST BETS
Cardinals (4-4-1) at Vikings (5-4)
As bad as the Vikings have been, currently mired in a four-game losing streak, the Cardinals have been worse. We can see Minnesota snapping out of this current slump. The Vikes are home after playing three of past four on the road. They are 3-1 on this field with only loss occurring in overtime to divisional-foe Detroit. The Packers, Giants and Texans all went down on their respective visits here. Minny has had trouble protecting Sam Bradford, but the QB still managed to throw for 307 yards and two touchdowns in last week?s loss to Washington. While the endorsement for Minnesota might appear mild, Arizona?s recent form elevates this host significantly. The Cardinals only road win this season was against dreadful San Francisco. That?s the same 1-8 San Fran club that Arizona barely snuck by 23-20 last week in the rematch. The Cards? four wins have come against three sub-.500 clubs (Rams, Bucs and the Niners twice). Despite woes, Vikings remain tied atop NFC North. A win here is essential and they should pull it off. TAKING: VIKINGS Even
Bills (4-5) at Bengals (3-5-1)
Having lost three straight, the public might be disenchanted with the Bills, but falling prey to the red-hot Dolphins, Patriots and Seahawks is a fate that many would have succumbed to. Buffalo had won four straight prior to the three-game skid and now they get back to facing a club that is more its speed. Cincinnati can?t seem to get out of its own way. Its offensive line isn?t protecting Andy Dalton nor is it producing running lanes for its ground game. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals rank 24th in both overall yards allowed and rushing yards permitted. That should bode well for talented Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy. We also get that odd scheduling quirk where Cincinnati is on a short week after losing at the Giants on Monday night while Bills rested after regrouping during their bye week. Besides, why would we want to give away points with a team whose only win in its past five games was against the sad-sack Browns? TAKING: BILLS +3
Texans (6-3) vs. Raiders (7-2)
Don?t get fooled by the 6-3 Texans as their record is far superior to their ability. Houston?s offence is about as exciting as a soccer team?s. QB Brock Osweiler has been a bust in his new digs. He currently has a passer rating of 74.1, which ranks higher than only two other quarterbacks being tracked, namely Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blaine Gabbert, both of whom have been benched. Osweiler has just 11 touchdown passes on the year compared to nine interceptions. Scoring just 17.9 points per game, Houston ranks only ahead of the Browns, Rams and Bears. Phooey! Prior to first road win of season at Jacksonville last week, the Texans were outscored 85-22 in three other road defeats. As for the Raiders, they continue to impress. Derek Carr is in the MVP conversation with his 17-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Raiders are strong offensively, getting better defensively and, after a well-earned rest, they should have little trouble disposing of this imposter. TAKING: RAIDERS ?5?
THE REST
Titans (5-5) at Colts (4-5)
This is a corner the Titans would love to turn. Not only have the Colts won the previous 10 meetings between these two, but a Tennessee victory here would create a 1?-game gap between the pair while helping the Titans stay in pursuit of division-leading Texans. With Tennessee?s improved offence (82 points in past two games) facing Indianapolis? questionable defence, there is some hope. However, until we see it happen, we?re not prepared to expect it. The Colts were victorious in Nashville less than a month ago. Indy is home for just the second time in six weeks. They?ve had an extra week to prepare for this one. They know the importance of it as they have a short week coming before facing Steelers. The Titans are shooting for consecutive wins, something they?ve accomplished only once since 2014. Seeing is believing. TAKING: COLTS ?3
Jaguars (2-7) at Lions (5-4)
Folks that believe in QB Blake Bortles haven?t seen him play lately. His record as a starter since taking the helm for the Jaguars in 2014 now stands at a dismal 10-28. The only time he seems to accumulate reasonable throwing stats is during cosmetic time when his team is getting smashed. Don?t get us wrong. Jacksonville?s troubles are not restricted to its quarterback. This team can?t run the ball or defend the run. They own a -14 turnover ratio. With coach Gus Bradley on borrowed time, this group remains a rudderless ship. Now they will head to Detroit to take on a rejuvenated Lions? squad that finds itself atop the NFC North. The rested Leos have won four of past five, led by the stellar play of its quarterback with Matthew Stafford completing 67% of his passes for 18 TDs and only five interceptions. TAKING: LIONS ?6
Buccaneers (4-5) at Chiefs (7-2)
Giving away more than a touchdown with these field-goal happy Chiefs isn?t the most pleasing thing to do. But a closer look shows a difference in class here. Maybe Tampa?s 36-10 win last week has inspired some to get behind the Buccaneers for this one. We can?t put much merit into that one as the screwy 2-7 Bears barely showed up. Tampa?s other wins aren?t much either as they included the 1-8 49ers and the 3-6 Panthers with Derek Anderson quarterbacking Carolina on that day. Somewhat surprisingly, Kansas City has lost just three of its past 21 games. They are in a tight race in the ultra-competitive AFC West and can ill afford even the slightest lapse. Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston has experienced many lapses. Despite flashes of brilliance, he is prone to reckless turnovers. His Bucs 0-4 vs. spread against winning teams this year. TAKING: CHIEFS ?7?
Bears (2-7) at Giants (6-3)
Chicago teased everyone a couple of Mondays ago with upset win over the Vikings. Jay Cutler returned to the lineup after missing some time and the Bears appeared to be improved. That was short-lived. A clunker last week against the Bucs appears to have taken any fight that was left out of this team. Since that loss, Chicago has seen its best receiver get suspended while its top O-lineman, Kyle Long, has been sidelined for the rest of the year. Bears are already 0-5 against the spread in their previous five road games. They just don?t have the manpower nor the desire to compete. The Giants will be going full throttle as they ride a four-game win streak. This will be New York?s third consecutive home game before traveling for a pair. Even though it?s a big spot here, prefer G-Men?s momentum to Chicago?s downward spiral. TAKING: GIANTS ?7?
Ravens (5-4) at Cowboys (8-1)
Both are division leaders at the moment, but the disparity between the two is great. If you?ve seen the Ravens play, you know what we?re talking about. Baltimore lacks offensive playmakers. Their best receiver is 37-year-old Steve Smith Sr. Their No. 1 back is a Cleveland Browns castoff, which explains their 28th-ranked ground game. This is a team that is life-and-death to get to 20 points. Three of Baltimore?s five wins have come against the Jaguars and Browns (x2) and it has yet to defeat a winner. The Cowboys are the only one-loss team in the league with that setback occurring way back in Week 1. Dallas is playing well on both sides of the ball and there is little to believe that the Ravens can keep up. NFC East teams now 9-1 this season vs. teams from crumbling AFC North. TAKING: COWBOYS ?7
Steelers (4-5) at Browns (0-10)
The oddsmaker erred on this one. Figuring that no one is interested in the winless Browns, he set this number at Pittsburgh -10 on openers. Oops. The marketplace came charging in on Cleveland despite its woeful ways and the line dropped to where we see it now, Steelers by 7?. While results are never known until the games are played, that movement is a significant condemnation of slumping Pittsburgh and one worth paying attention to. It?s rare to see a team that has lost four straight, like the Steelers have, giving away such substantial points in a divisional road game. Pittsburgh?s only road win this season was opening week vs. Redskins. Since then, 0-3 while being outscored 85-32. Are we all-in with the Browns here? Of course not. Cleveland is barely fielding a pro team, but given the choice, the points seem plausible. TAKING: CLEVELAND +7?
Dolphins (5-4) at Rams (4-5)
This one has an odd stench to it. The Dolphins are on a roll while the Rams have lost four of five with the only win occurring last week when scoring just nine points. So who is backing Los Angeles here? The answer is twofold. Firstly, defensive stats have the Rams with the seventh-best overall numbers at stopping their opponents. The biggest concern is Miami?s run defence which ranks 30th, ahead of only Cleveland and San Francisco. Secondly, is the oddsmaker. When numbers were first released, L.A. was the small favourite. It is the public that has driven the visitor to be spotting points and that carries a red flag with it. The Rams have finally decided to give rookie QB Jared Goff a chance to get his feet wet. He?ll game-manage and hand off often to Todd Gurley. That might just do the trick. TAKING: RAMS +1?
Patriots (7-2) at 49ers (1-8 )
We won?t insult your intelligence by trying to sell you on the merits of the 49ers here. These two are worlds apart as San Francisco is a team under construction and will take some time for it to compete with clubs such as these Patriots. But as tempting as it may be to give these points away, we can?t recommend it either. Double-digit road favourites are a losing proposition. It?s easy to say that this one is different as the difference between the two clubs is so great, but that same principle would apply almost every time this rarity occurs. The Niners showed some spunk in a close loss and cover to the Cardinals last week in the same price range, but that was on the road. Now home, having to stay within two touchdowns is not out of the question. Have to lean that way. TAKING: 49ers +13
Eagles (5-4) at Seahawks (6-2)
This is typically when the Seahawks start gathering steam. It looks more evident than ever after winning in New England on Sunday night and now they?ll return home where they rarely lose, including 4-0 this season. While the Eagles have been a pleasant surprise after undergoing significant off-season changes, this is a tough spot. Philadelphia has just one win in its five road games, that victory occurring in Chicago back in Week 2. Rookie QB Carson Wentz was heralded as the biggest thing to hit Philly since Rocky Balboa, but the youngster has tapered off with just two touchdowns against four interceptions over the Eagles past five games. Seattle is best when Russell Wilson can do his thing and, after spending the early going on a gimpy leg, Wilson appears to be his old self as the offence has scored 31 points in consecutive games. TAKING: SEAHAWKS ?6?
Packers (4-5) at Redskins (5-3-1)
OK, Packers, enough is enough. Time to be one of the top NFC teams you were supposed to be. If that is to remotely happen, it must start here. After dropping three straight and surrendering 111 points in the process, there is work to be done. But when you have one of the best quarterbacks in the game going for you, there is always hope. That hope is extended when you get a rare opportunity to take back some points with Green Bay. The Packers have been underdogs just once this season and they were able to cover in a 33-32 nailbiter in Atlanta. Redskins are playing well but they have a history of wetting themselves in primetime, where they have just two wins in past 12 tries. Packers also hammered Washington 35-18 in playoffs last year. The investor?s adage to ?sell high, buy low? is very applicable here. TAKING: PACKERS +2?
Packers at Redskins
Play: Over 49.5
The Green Bay Packers head to Washington for their second road game in a row and they are a desperate team. Aaron Rodgers can do all he wants on offense, but one thing we know is that he can't play defense and the Packers are a mess on that side of the ball. We see Rodgers without any kind of running game throwing it well over 50 times on Sunday. Take a look at the Packers points in the last 3 games. They scored 25, 26, and 32 points respectively. All games were losses. The totals for those games were 72, 57 and 65 respectively. Until we see something different from this Packer club we will keep backing the OVER. With the Redskins ranked 6th in total offense, points will be plenty today. Backing our selection is the fact that the Over is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 home games and the fact that the OVER is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
TEN @ IND -2.5
Not surprisingly, after last week?s shellacking of the Packers, the Titans are getting plenty of love from the public. Looks like the sharps have also jumped in the mix, moving the line from the opener of -3. That?s a fairly significant move actually, and the type that forces an astute bettor to look at the home team in most cases. Let?s join those guys and see if we can find a way to back the Colts. First, let?s not forget that Indy just beat the Packers themselves, and they did it on the road, in Lambeau. Second of all, they?re coming off a BYE-week, giving them extra time to prepare and more importantly, to get healthier. A couple of defenders are set to return, most importantly FS Mike Adams. Offensively, Colts are fully healthy as well for the first time since week 1. When these two teams met earlier this year (TEN -4 at home), Indy averaged 6.5 YPP to Tennessee?s 4.9. They were more inefficient on 3rd downs (4 for 10) than the Titans (9 for 15), which made it a back-and-forth type of game with each team trading leads late. I think overall, both teams are fairly even here, and with Indy being at home (Luck is undefeated against the Titans in his career so far - this is not a factor, but an interesting trend nonetheless), I?d give them a very slight edge. With the spread below a FG, this one might be just playable. (By the way, in the offseason, this line was IND -8 FWIW) Lean: IND -2.5
JAX @ DET -6.5
Coming off a BYE week the Lions find themselves at top of NFC North. They didn?t even need to do anything, as all other divisional opponents simply lost last week. But Detroit better not be looking ahead to their Turkey-day game with the Vikings in 4 days. Jags are on a 4-game losing streak, but do you know that the current spread is the second highest all year for them, after they were +7.5 @ KC a few weeks back. Neither Smith nor Ware played in that one though, so the number would have been higher. Still, my point here is that Lions are getting a lot of respect from the bookmakers in this one. This team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite on the year and they still sport the league?s worst defense. Even a crappy offense led by a crappy QB like Bortles should have success here right?....Right?? On the other side, Jags sport a 13th ranked pass-D, which is an important factor going up against a pass-heavy offense like the Lions. In the off-season this line was -3.5 DET. They feel over-valued as well. JAX +6.5
TB @ KC -7
I got this one at -6.5 KC, so the road team is worth some investigating, though the +7.5?s are gone now unfortunately. Part of the reason the line moved is that the bookmakers expect the Chiefs to be undermanned I?m assuming. Maclin is out, Peters (their stud CB) hasn?t practiced all week, DE Howard is out, and Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe are all questionable after each logging one limited practice each. Justin Houston will make his debut this week, though I think he?ll be on snap count in his first game back. One thing to keep in mind is that KC hasn?t really been that dominant lately, even though they?re sporting a 5-win trend. They needed a massive comeback against the Panthers last week and got totally outplayed against the Jags (6.0 YPP vs 4.1 YPP for KC) the week before, winning only due to a 4 to 0 TO differential in the game. Now with a big game @ Denver next week this one is shaping up as a classic ?look ahead? spot for them. Throw in all the injuries and a TD spread, and this one seems fairly solid. Lean: TB +7
CHI @ NYG -7.5
My model has this one at NYG -7, so there?s slight value on the Bears due to the ?hook?. But what a miserable season this is turning out to be for Chicago. There are reports that Jay Cutler has ?lost the locker room? (whatever the heck that means) from current Bears players supposedly. Alshon Jeffery is on the ?juice? and is going to miss the next 4 games. Chicago?s O-line is heavily depleted with Long out for the year and Massie missing this week with a concussion. This team is a mess and now will go against a top-10 Giants D. New York is coming off a big win on MNF, and due to a shorter turnaround, I wouldn?t overpay to back them either. PASS
ARZ @ MIN -2.5
Once ?darlings? of the NFL, these two teams have fallen back into mediocrity as the season has gone on. Both teams feature top-10 defense, but horrific, bottom-10 offenses. Both can rush the passer and neither has the O-line to protect their QB. Arizona barely?and I do mean, barely, beat San Francisco at home last week. Vikings are now sporting a 4-game losing streak. My model has this one at -2 MIN. If you still haven?t figured out what my recommended course of action is here, then you?re not reading these every week! PASS
BAL @ DAL -7.5
I?ve faded the Cowboys for 4 straight weeks now with disastrous results of course. They just keep on winning and covering in the process. Elliot and Prescott are two super-rookies, who have seemingly never heard the concept of a ?rookie wall?. At the very least, they?re not ?hitting? it just yet. Well, I?m going to recommend potentially fading the Cowboys once again here. My model has this one at -6.5 DAL, so the current line provides a ton of value as the ?hook? is in play (Remember, 7 is a key # in NFL). Last week Dallas faced a team with a great offense and a bad D. They barely pulled it out, as predictably (no Church and no Claiborne, their best players in the secondary) the D was bad (allowed 30 points). The offense did just enough to grab a close win. This week, Dallas will face a Baltimore team with an elite defense but a horrific offense. Ravens rank #1 in run-D, 5th in rushing the passer, and 6th against the pass. This team is 1st in Power Scenarios on defense and doesn?t allow runners many yards once they do get to the second level. If any team can stop this Dallas rushing attack, this is it. Will they be able to do it? I?m not sure, as the Cowboys have been matchup-proof so far this season. Still, I think Baltimore brings them down to Earth a bit here. This team has had 10-days to prepare and I expect Harbaugh to have them ready. Offensively, Baltimore has gotten Steve Smith back over the last few weeks, their young rookie RB Kenneth Dixon is finally fully healthy, and Marshal Yanda, their best O-lineman, is set to rejoin the team after missing a few games. Baltimore?s offense is in best shape they?ve been in weeks and I expect them to score some points here. In the NFL, a 7-point spread is a ton. Cowboys have played well enough to show they are deserving of such respect, but I think this week is when they underperform. Lean: BAL +7.5
PIT @ CLE +8
I have this one at -5.8 PIT, so there?s a lot of value on the home dog at this number. Cleveland looked way overmatched the last few weeks, but they?ve faced top-ranked Dallas team and an elite defensive team in the Ravens in those contests. Now they?ll take on a Pittsburgh team that is bottom-10 defensively. Expect the Steelers to be even worse going forward as their stud DT Cameron Heyward is out for the year. Pittsburgh has the worst pass-rush in the league, a bottom-10 pass-D, and now a run-D that is going to get gashed. If Browns can?t score points on this team, they won?t on anyone. Oh, and they?ve had 10-days to prepare for this one. I know it?s not easy, but backing an undervalued home dog is typically a winning proposition. You have such a scenario here. By the way, with almost 90% of all the best on the Steelers, the line moved from -10 to -8: RLM at it?s finest for those that like to look at such a thing. Lean: CLE +8
MIA @ LAR +2
I think this Rams offense is going to get ?worse? before it gets better. I watched this Goff kid in preseason and he looked absolutely clueless playing the most crucial position in football. There?s A reason why he didn?t become a starter till now. He?s NOT ready, but of course Fisher is under a ton of pressure to get him into the game. Miami is sporting a 6th ranked D overall and 4th against the pass. I think Goff?s debut is going to be a disaster. To make matters worse, Gurley re-injured himself at Friday?s practice. He played with a thigh issue last week and looks like it acted up again. Averaging a pathetic 3.1 YPC on the season, expect an even worse performance out of him if he does play. This Rams offense is going to be really bad in this matchup. On the other side, Dolphins are dealing with a lot of injuries. They?re without two starting O-linemen, in Pouncey and Albert and their WR?s are a bit banged up though both should play (Landry / Stills). Still, they?re a much better team than the Rams, and even if their offense plays well below expectations, Miami should have a strong shot of grinding out a win. They are taking this game seriously, as they decided to stay in Southern California after their game @ SD last week, instead of flying back home to Miami. Smart move, similar to what Oakland did a few weeks ago when they played b2b in Florida. Lean: MIA -2
NE @ SF +11.5
I have NE -9 here, so there?s value in the home dog above 10. This one is similar to the PIT @ CLE, where you have a superior road team being a heavy favorite?.AND overvalued. I think when you have scenarios like this, it?s important to remember that the ?spread? is a great equalizer in football. Everyone knows that NE > SF, but is NE -11.5 > SF +11.5? Well, that latter one is debatable of course. New England played a tough game against Seattle at home and now travels cross-country for this one. Sure, they?re motivated to ?win? but are they motivated for a ?blowout?? New England is without Gronk, they traded their best LB last week, and they?ll also be missing Chris Hogan. More importantly, this is a 27th ranked pass-D with non-existent pass-rush (ranked 31st). Expect the Pats to slow the game down by running down San Francisco?s throat, and by minimizing the number of possessions they?ll ultimately have in a game, the chance for a home team cover is that much greater. I?d look to back the ?value?. Lean: SF +11.5
PHI @ SEA -6.5
The spread says that Seattle is 3.5 points better than the Eagles on neutral field. That?s completely inaccurate. Whatever metric you want to look up, Eagles rank as either a ?better? team or just as good as the Seahawks. So why is Seattle this big of a favorite? Well, partly because the public loves them and is overwhelmingly on ?em (70%+). I backed the Seahawks last week as they were greatly undervalued at NE for my Game of the Week. Big part of that was due to New England?s non-existent pass-rush, as I felt that Wilson will be able to do whatever he wanted. He did, and Seattle won. Well, against the Eagles, it?s going to be totally opposite. Philly ranks 2nd in rushing the passer and I expect them to make life very uncomfortable for Wilson. In addition, Philly ranks 1st in pass-D, while New England is 27th. I don?t think Baldwin will be scoring 3 TD?s this week. I know Philly is starting a rookie, which is always dangerous in Seattle, but I think Pederson will once again utilize a heavy run approach here, trying to control the flow and keep Seattle?s offense off the field. Keep in mind that Bennett is still out, and Seattle?s pass-rush isn?t even close to what it is with him in the lineup. I think Wentz and Co. will be alright. This would have been my Game of the Week this week if not for the one I selected, as that one has even better matchup advantages than this. Play: PHI +6.5
GB @ WAS -3
The Packers simply look ?cooked?. The offense looks broken, they have no big-play ability, and the defense can?t stop anyone. Washington, on the other hand, has been impressive. Still, this is a team that is 1-5 ATS as a favorite over the last few years. They are a better team, and my model has them at -4, but I simply can?t back them as a favorite, especially when I?d need them to win by more than a FG. PASS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
In a game that could see inclement weather, the Total has crashed from an opening number of 50 to 46. The Browns have been the 30th ranked defense, giving up 7.8 NYPP and 4.5 YPR. However, the Steelers have been surprisingly almost as bad on defense as their AFC North counterparts, ranking 28th. The difficulty with backing winless teams is that it is tough to gauge when you will get effort, as they Brownies completely gave up last week against the Ravens after leading 7-6 at halftime. The advanced stats model leans to the Browns (+7.5), though it is below the threshold of a play. No opinion on the Total.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Touchdown Tom makes his return home, as it will be the San Mateo kid?s first game back in the Bay Area to face off against his childhood team, the San Franciso 49ers. The Niners are riding an eight-game losing streak as they have not won since week 1. However, they did make progress last week in the closest game during the streak, losing by only a field goal. While the Niners give up 31.4 points per game, the big problem with their team has been the downfield passing attack as Kaepernick has been a shell of his younger self, averaging only 6.0 NYPP. Tom Brady has been the polar opposite of whatever CK7 is doing inside and outside of the pocket, averaging 9.0 NYPP and even in a loss to the vaunted Seahawks pass defense, TB12 put up an efficient 316 yards and 72% completion rate. The advanced stats model leans to the Pats and Over, though both are below model thresholds.
Sunday's comp play winner is the Hawks in the NBA over the Knicks.
Believe it or not, New York has won and covered the last pair of series meetings between the teams.
That changes today, as Atlanta is off to a 9-3 start, and they are playing this game off a loss at Charlotte on Friday night that snapped a 6 game winning streak.
Expect Atlanta to get back into the win column today against the inconsistent Knicks.
New York saw their mini winning streak halted at 2 games with the loss at Washington on Thursday, and while they have had the extra day to get ready for this afternoon affair at the Garden, I don't think the talent matches up for the Knicks to extend the series win streak to 3 straight.
Dwight Howard has made a difference in the Atlanta lineup, and I look for the first meeting of the season between the clubs to land in Atlanta's favor.
Go with the Hawks as the small road favorite on Sunday afternoon.
CAROLINA -? +116 over Winnipeg
Regulation only. We?re really not sure how the Jets are going to summon up enough energy to compete here. The Jets played last night in Boston. They will play their eighth game in the past 12 days, their fourth game in the past six, their third game in four days and the tail end of back to backs after playing in Boston last night. This one is also an earlier start, as the puck drops at 5:00 PM EST. The Jets managed a mere 12 shots on net yesterday in Boston. The most shots the Jets had had in any one period last night was five. Boston fired away 38 shots. Aside from the absolute brutal schedule that the Jets are enduring right now, this is their third road game in a row and their fourth road game in their last six that included a trip to Colorado and Arizona. The Jets are also playing shorthanded with as many as six regulars out and while this is a deep and talented team, the toll that the injuries and schedule has taken has caught up to them and Carolina is not a good matchup under those circumstances.
We love that the Hurricanes were not at their best when they beat Montreal on Friday night. It shows progress that they can win when they don?t play to their potential. In the past, that?s a game they would?ve lost for sure. One can expect a stronger effort here because that?s who the ?Canes are. The Hurricanes relentless pursuit of the puck is a beautiful thing to watch and so is their second to none group of defensemen. Justin Faulk returned to duty last game and now has that one game back under his belt. Carolina has won three in a row over Washington, San Jose and Montreal. They outshot Washington and San Jose by a combined 71-43. They have taken four minor penalties over their past three games. This is a talented, disciplined and very methodically sound group. The ?Canes figure to be highly energized here after one of their weaker performances on Friday and they catch a Jets? squad that is running on fumes, which means chasing the puck and taking a bunch of penalties along the way.
01:00 PM NFL [463] BAL RAVENS +9-160 (B+2)
04:05 PM NFL [467] MIA DOLPHINS +2.5 -155 (B+2)
04:25 PM NFL [472] SEA SEAHAWKS -4.5 -150 (B+2)
01:00 PM NFL [1454] 1H DET LIONS -3.5 -110
07:30 PM CBB [535] Xavier -4.5 -110
09:30 PM CBB [552] Central Florida +15.5 -110
05:05 PM NHL [4] Carolina Hurricanes -150
1 unit bet pays 85 ....betdsi line ... close again! yesterday's 8 teamer lost just due to Penguins...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Detroit (-6.5) over Jacksonville
The Jaguars just make too many mistakes. Yes, Blake Bortles is the king of garbage time points, both on the scoreboard and in fantasy circles, but it won't be enough in Detroit. The Lions are quietly playing some good football. Since October 9 the Lions are 4-1 S.U. with wins over the Eagles, Rams, Redskins, and Vikings. Their only loss was at the Houston Texans in a defensive battle. Detroit should have little difficulty scoring at home versus Jacksonville and the Jags will continue to make mistakes on the offensive side of the football. With Minnesota and Green Bay just not looking that great, the Lions know that each winnable game is one they have to take care of business in. This Division is wide open and the Lions are starting to believe in themselves. Lay the points here as Detroit wins 34-17.
Steelers vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8
The Steelers are on a 3 game losing streak, and not looking very good of late, and are fade material here on the road . Note: PITTSBURGH is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and HC Tomlin is 9-18 ATS L/27 against lower tier teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of a ugly record are a team, that's desperate for a victory. Just one win , and than their free to tank, so that they can pick up North Carolina's super star under center Mitch Trubisky a Cleveland native in the draft. I know this one smells like a Norwegian fish market, but please just plug your nose, close your eyes and pull the trigger.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Browns - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 29-9 ATS L/38 opportunities.
Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Buffalo
Even with their already being a mid-week adjustment on this line, the better team is still getting points. While Cincinnati is off a brutal one-point loss Monday night (which may have sunk their season), Buffalo has been waiting in the wings, set to come off its bye week. The Bills are simply better. Take the points.
Buffalo has been somewhat all over the place this season, They opened 0-2 and fired their offensive coordinator. Then, they rattled off a four-game win streak (covering every game) and looked like one of the better teams in the league. Since that time, they've lost three in a row, including a hard-fought game at Seattle two weeks ago. After facing the Patriots and Seahawks in the L2 games, this most definitely is a drop in class for the Bills. Despite the losing record, Rex Ryan's team has actually outscored opponents by 34 points this year.
Cincy is not only at a situational disadvantage here, they are faced w/ the fact that they may very well be a team on the decline. They have just three wins and two of them are at the Browns and Jets' expense. That Browns win is their lone victory since September. They average just 20.8 PPG, so they are not a good candidate to be laying points at this time. There was a time (1989-2010) when they'd lost 10 straight to Buffalo. They've won the L3 meetings, but that streak ends Sunday.
Teaser - Lions Pk & Seahawks Pk
Needing the Lions and Seahawks just to win at home looks good....I know Seattle might be a bit sluggish, but the offense also week looked great against the Pats...Although I can't stand this Seahawks team, that game and outcome on both sides of the ball is just what they needed...Philly isn't all that great and the offense with a young Carson Wentz will struggle...Philly had some success last week running the ball, so I expect Philly to muck this game up a little bit. The killer for Philly will the the combo of the butter finger WR's...They drop the ball in the most crucial spots..You can't do that in this zoo of a stadium against this defense...Philly will have issue hearing in this place and Wentz has never dealt with a road game like he will see tonight....Philly backend opened up after Carroll went out with a concussion...He might play this week, but the Philly secondary still has issue...Russell Wilson looks far more mobile right now and that alone is key for the Seahawks...It will be a close game for a bit, but in the end the Eagles dropped passes and mistakes will haunt them.
I like this one enough to lay the 6.5, but it very well could be a tad close..Why not just tease the Lions here...Detroit hasn't been bad and a BYE week will do them wonders...Jags just don't have it this year...Another road game for them and asking the Jags to win looks very tough...Detroit has the running game and passing game working well with Stafford..I think they put together a solid scripted game plan to start out the game..Id also consider Lions 1st qtr and 1st half wager as well.
In the Sights, NFL?
When line moves take place these days there are a variety of ways to take advantage, and with the Vikings being pushed form pick?em to -2.5 late-week it sets one up here, with #460 Minnesota Team Total Under (1:00 Eastern), 20.5 having become the going rate. To get rewarded with a win if the Vikings land on 20 is significant here.
Thee isn?t much need for deep detail on the struggles of the Minnesota offense, with a pedestrian skill cast that needs good play from the OL to open up things up for them, but that line is playing as poorly as any in the league, and as a result it has been over a month since they last topped 20 in a game, averaging 14.0 over the last four outings. A ground game managing just 2.7 per carry may not be fixable with the current components, which continues to force down-and-distance situations the passing game is not good enough to overcome. Now the one strength that has emerged, Sam Bradford connecting with Stefon Diggs (61 catches), also gets neutralized through the presence of Patrick Peterson, making it an even greater uphill challenge for the Vikings to produce.
Eagles vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 42?
With both teams coming off huge wins last week, I think we are going to see both come out a bit flat here and that's going to end up leading to a defensive battle between two of the leagues' top defensive teams. Seattle comes in 9th in total defense (Top 10 against both the run and the pass) and Philadelphia is 7th in total defense. On top of that, I think this is a bad matchup for both offenses. Philadelphia's strength defensively is their front 7 and I look for their defensive line to have their way with Seattle's offensive line. At the same time, I think the books is out on Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense. The Seahawks aren't going to let him have a big day on their home turf and Philadelphia offense hasn't been as productive on the road.
New England at San Francisco
Play: New England -12.5
Not often that we will look to lay double digits on the road in the NFL, but we are making a rare exception here. The Patriots looked terrible last week against Seattle coming out of the bye. While the 49ers normally wouldn't get a great deal of attention from the Patriots, last weeks performance brings out the best of Bill's bunch here.
Despite giving the Cardinals all it could take last week, the 49ers were still outgained 6.0 to 4.6 yards per play. It was a +3 turnover edge that kept the game close. Only once since opening day have the Niners won the ypp battle and even in that game it lost on the screboard by 18 points.
DALLAS -7 over Baltimore
The Ravens crushed the Browns 28-7 on Thursday Night Football after Cleveland took a lead into halftime. After two straight division wins, Baltimore now finds itself atop the AFC North but it?s all smoke and mirrors. The Ravens other victory during this modest two game win streak was against the Steelers with a half crippled Ben Roethlisberger playing. The Ravens are not good and their body of work this season supports that. Their other wins have come over Buffalo, Jacksonville and Cleveland again. They've lost every game they've played against anyone half decent including the Raiders, Redskins, Giants and Jets and we don?t consider the Jets or Giants decent.
Tony Romo said it best on Sunday when he was caught on camera saying ?it's his time? into his headset. Romo knows what Jerry Jones refuses to admit; this is Dak Prescott's team. For all the deserved praise the rookie signal caller has gotten, we would be remiss if we didn't use this space to talk about how great the Cowboys' offensive line is. They give Dak time to throw and the holes they create for rookie runner Eziekel Elliot have made him a fantasy football legend in just half a season. The Cowboys are on a different level right now and their win over the Steelers on Sunday was one of those season defining games. They went on the road into a very hostile environment, overcame an early turnover that led to Steeler points and they closed the game out with a touchdown drive in the final seconds to win it.
Analytics are big in baseball and hockey but advance stats aren't yet the rage in the NFL. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. It's basically a more accurate representation of where a team is at beyond the surface stats. The Ravens offense ranks dead last when it's weighted against the other teams in the league. Their opponents this week in Dallas are 2nd. After playing the eighth ranked Steelers, the Cowboys are taking a big step down in competition when they host Baltimore on Sunday. When the oddsmakers put a ?hook? on a key number like seven, we always have to take a closer look. That half point can be enough to sway bettors to the dog and we think the books have done just that. Furthermore, this is a classic sandwich game for Dallas, as they have the Redskins on deck for their annual Thanksgiving Day game on Thursday. The propensity after that big win over Pittsburgh would be a letdown but we?re not anticipating that here. Dallas has huge momentum and have not let up yet so we see no reason for a step back here. There is a colossal difference in class between these two teams and when it?s all said and done, the colossal difference in class will likely be reflected on the scoreboard.
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Play: Ravens +7?
Fresh off a lucky winner with the Saints on Thursday, Teddy is now 64-43 (60%) in the NFL since the start of 2015. And fresh off an easy 3 TD winner with Kansas State on Saturday, Teddy is now hitting 67% with his Big Ticket Reports over the past five weeks. Get the best of both worlds with his Big Ticket 'Wrong Team Favored' winner on Sunday!
No team in the NFL is hotter than Dallas, winning and covering each and every game since their Week 1 home loss to the Giants. Over the last month, they?ve won tough road games at Green Bay and Pittsburgh. But at home, they were lucky to get past Philadelphia and even luckier to cover the spread in overtime; continuing a long term trend of struggles to cover as a home favorite throughout the Jason Garrett era.
The Cowboys left it all on the field with their big win over the Steelers last week, a wild game that went back and forth through the final minute. Up next? A huge divisional showdown against hated rival Washington on Thanksgiving Day; a short week ahead. In between? This non-conference affair against a Ravens team; a game they?ve got to win by more than a TD to cover the spread. For Dallas to overcome this flat spot, they?d need an opponent they can just steamroll, like they did to the Browns a few weeks back.
But the Ravens aren?t getting steamrolled by anyone these days ? all four previous losses for this first place squad have come by eight points or less; competitive games. John Harbaugh?s defense is ranked #1 in the NFL against the run (yards per rush) and #3 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Their offense finally found some rhythm running no-huddle in the second half last week, turning a 7-6 deficit into a 28-7 victory. And, let?s not forget ? Baltimore?s in first place right now; just like Dallas; a capable football team. Too many points!
Tennessee Titans +3
There is nothing more important in sports betting than getting to the party on time. With the linemaker adjusting more quickly than ever, it is vital, that as a handicapper, we react quickly to changes in the fortunes of a team. When that happens to opposing teams in the same game, it is imperative that we take advantage. We are bucking a lot of history in making this underdog call. But, the reality of the performance of these teams is a long way from the public?s continued perception. The linemaker and public continue to perceive the Colts as being a team that looks to enjoy the same success as they did in the waning years of QB Manning and the outset of the career of QB Luck. It is so easy to fall into the trap that the Colts? earlier victory of 34-26 at Tennessee is a sign that not much has changed between these teams. Nothing could be further from the truth. The history book says that, under QB Luck, the Colts are 18-4 SU in divisional play and have won 10 straight games against these Titans. They are also 9-2 ATS coming off their BYE week. That was at a time when the Colts had among the best line play in the league. Now, an aging roster has grown long in the tooth with a DL unable to provide much pressure on opposing QBs and an OL that is in shambles allowing Luck to be sacked 34 times this season.
On the other sideline is a Tennessee team, whose past transgressions are etched in the mind of the public. There are bad historical numbers everywhere you look, including a run of 1-12 ATS when coming off a victory. That is their role this week, as they enter following a trouncing of a fading Green Bay team in which they outrushed the Packers 30/162 to 13/69 and profited from a (+3) net TO margin. But, if you think there is going to be a letdown off that win, then you underestimate the hunger of this team in this division rivalry as well as their great improvement. The Titans haven?t been to the playoff party in 7 years. At last, however, the defense has improved. Credit DC LeBeau (Pittsburgh), who brings the Titans in with a defense that is better across the board than the Colts, including 42 YPG. They also feature the superior offense across the board. Most particularly, consider their 30/146/4.9 running numbers as compared to the Colts? 24/98/4.1. That running offense for the Titans is No. 3 in the league, trailing only Buffalo and Dallas. Each of these teams comes off an upset of Green Bay (the Colts prior to their BYE week) and each of these teams trails Houston for the division lead by 2 losses. Today, however, we know who the better team will be as they take the field. And, it is not the one perceived in the eyes of the linemaker and public. Reborn Titans? offense has averaged 33 PPG L6G behind Mariota, who has a 17/3 ratio. Along with the better running game and defense, we will take the superior team as dog to break the stranglehold of the Colts in this series.
Chicago +7? over N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants don't win them by much but for four weeks now they have won by a touchdown or less. They currently have the fourth best record in the NFC which is impressed by any team over .500 this year. These next two games - the Bears and Browns ? figure to be wins before the schedule gets very tough for the final five games. The Giants certainly have not played in a way that suggests that they are one of the top teams in the conference but welcome to 2016. The G-men had to rally against the pitiful Bengals on Monday night. They struggled to a 17-10 win over the Rams. They lost to both Minnesota and Green Bay while scoring 10 and 16 points respectively. They overcame the Saints earlier in the year and scored just 16 in a three-point victory. The list for the Giants goes on and on of low scoring games that get decided in the final few minutes. After a big Monday night win and with Cleveland on deck, this looks like one of those troubling spots that result in an upset.
The Giants are perhaps the most overvalued team in the NFL so let?s recap. Their best defensive player blew up his hand and is playing with a lobster claw. The Giants coach is offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, master of the tight end fade route. You younger Giant fans who missed out on the Ray Handley era are experiencing that treat now. Then there?s Eli Manning. Has there ever been a more accomplished yet less respected athlete in history? No one fears Eli. Even his own fans clown him. This man has won two Super Bowls, has thrown for a bazillion yards and has been the most durable quarterback since Brett Favre. Somewhere under that dopey exterior is the black heart of a bloodthirsty competitor? a man driven by perceived disrespect and sibling non-rivalry. Only we don?t see that man. All we see is the dumbest kid at your seven-year-old?s birthday party. The Giants offensive line is still god awful, forcing Little Eli to scramble around in desperate search of either an open wideout or his mawmaw?s warm embrace. Combine that line with McAdoo?s offense, along with a running game destined to average 0.0003 yards per carry, and Manning is gonna get his throat ripped open at some point. We honestly have no idea how the Giants win football games and we?re sure as hell not going to miss taking back 7?-points against them here.
There are sources that say that the Bears are already tanking it this year and that they don't want to play with Jay Cutler. The defense has been very good when at home and not good at all when they leave. The offense struggled all year to post points and judging by last week's 26 point loss in Tampa Bay, that is a trend that is not going to go away. The Bears lose Alshon Jeffery for four weeks due to a suspension for performance enhancing drugs, which his fantasy owners can readily attest were not working anyway. Jay Cutler was accused of not preparing to play the Buccaneers and his stand-offish ways would result in the Bears switching quarterbacks if they had anyone decent to use. The point of all this is that the Bears are a total mess but the media blows everything out of proportion, especially when it comes to tearing down an individual. The Chicago media, like most, are relentless and cruel when someone or a group is at their worst. More often than not, however, that group will respond with a solid effort. Nobody, not even the media really know what the dynamics are in the locker room when it is closed. We have seen Cutler rise to the occasion before and it would surprise us not if he rose to the occasion here. This wager, however, is still more about fading a team that has trouble scoring seven points and that remains grossly overvalued.
Philadelphia +6? over SEATTLE
Over and under-reactions are a big part of our handicapping theories and it really doesn?t get any better than this. Seattle was given little chance of going into Foxborough last week and defeating the Patriots as a 7?-point pooch. Then something strange happened. The Seahawks looked flawless while the Patriots looked heavily flawed and the result was an outright victory for the visitor. Going into Week 10, Seattle had not played a single quarter, half or game that resembled anything we saw from them last week. Yes indeed, Russell Wilson looked like his old self. Yes indeed, the Seahawks defense stepped up when it mattered most just like they did in their hey-day. We are now going to attempt to take advantage of the market overreaction. Seattle goes from a 7?-point dog to a 6?-point favorite in the span of one week against a very good team. That?s a swing of 14 points from one week to the next and it is so wrong. Never put too much emphasis on one game but that is precisely what this market is doing. That win over New England raises the Seahawks stock through the roof but it also pointed out that the rushing defense is not nearly as good as the passing defense. That bodes well for the Eagles. Besides, the Seahawks have turned in more ugly performances this year than impressive ones.
The Eagles rediscovered the ground game, and just in time. Ryan Mathews rushed for over 100 yards and scored twice to help the Eagles to a 24-15 win over the Falcons on Sunday. That puts them at 5-4 and in position to compete down a difficult homestretch. Holding the Falcons to 15 points is something. Strong on defense and special teams, the Eagles appear to be at their best when they're playing an opportunistic, ball-control style on the offensive side. We see absolutely no reason for them to get away from that formula here. This is a smart coaching staff coming off a very nice win to get the Eagles back on track. Philadelphia has far better unity than last season's squad and has the talent and coaching to make this one very competitive. Philly outright is tempting but Pete Carroll always comes out smelling like a rose so we?ll take the more cautious approach and grab the points.
Buffalo +125 over CINCINNATI
This pits a stumbling Bengals' team against the Bills who have just suffered through a bad patch in the schedule more than played poorly. At 3-5-1, the season is already all but lost for the Bengals since there is no reason to expect any improvement from OC Ken Zampese's first year. A 10-year old with Madden Football experience could call a better game than the idiot that the Bengals hired. With an offensive scheme that is only nine games old and described as "stale and predictable, Andy Dalton looks like a deer caught in the headlights. The decline in the defense doesn?t help the Bengals either. The Bengals three wins occurred against the Jets by one point in Week 1, against Week 4 Miami on a Thursday night and against Cleveland.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off back-to-back losses to Seattle and New England in which they scored 25 points in both games. The last two weak teams that the Bills played, San Fran and the Rams, Buffalo won both times while outscoring that pair, 75-35. The Bills other two wins came against New England and Arizona. So while the Bengals look worse every week against weak competition, the Bills are playing some inspired football. The Buffalo Bills are much better than their record. They just are not better than their schedule but that all likely changes here. Buffalo outright.
MINNESOTA -2? over Arizona
An optimist might say that there was good, bad and ugly in the Cardinals' win over San Francisco on Sunday. Arizona returned to the passing game after the 49ers made it a priority to stop David Johnson, whom the Cardinals leaned heavily on during the first half of the season after defenses focused on taking away their vertical passing game. Sunday was a breakthrough for Arizona, to some degree, as it returned to the passing game with two 100-yard receivers in Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. That?s nice but that was against the putrid 49ers and the Cards needed a FG on the final play of the game to win by three against a San Fran team coming off three losses by 18, 17 and 29 points to New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Buffalo respectively. Carson Palmer looks decrepit and lost out there and now Arizona takes a massive step up in class this week when facing the Vikes defense. If Arizona scores anything, it?ll be shocking.
The plight of the Vikings is sure an interesting one. Not many 5-4 teams create the sense of gloom and doom as the Vikings have. After an amazing stretch of five games won largely thanks to a defense that both scored and prevented opponents from scoring, it doesn't work the same anymore. Coming off their Week 6 bye, this has not been the same team. The defense is not as good and the offense has continued to decline. OC Norv Turner committed a sort of hara-kiri rather than take the ride down. For a team that suddenly looked like the power of the NFC East for a time, the Vikings look more like a team that is becoming unraveled with no reason to assume a turn around. The Vikings asked Sam Bradford to throw the ball 40 times on Sunday, and their leading rusher (Matt Asiata) ran for 16 yards. They returned to a number of the negative plays coach Mike Zimmer had sought to eliminate, and after the 26-20 loss to the Redskins on Sunday, guard Alex Boone said, "It's like teams know what we're doing now." Ya think, Alex? Anyway, the point is that the Vikings stock is very low and now they?re underpriced because of it. This now becomes the best time in a long time to buy some Minnesota stock and that is precisely what we are going to do. The Cardinals scare nobody.
Dolphins -1
The big news going into this game is the Rams will be debuting rookie Jared Goff. This might not seem like a big deal, given how much the offense was struggling under quarterback Case Keenum. I'm sure even some people might view it as an upgrade. I'm not one of them. After watching Goff struggle the way he did on Hard Knocks, I wasn't surprised at all that LA waited this long to make the switch.
I know Fisher has said that he's not going to rush a rookie into action, but you don't trade up for the No. 1 pick and not expect to play him right away. Not in today's NFL. I personally think the Rams realized they made a mistake with Goff and were simply trying to save face by pushing back his debut.
I also think there's something to say about how Keenum reacted to losing his job. Given how poorly he has played, you wouldn't expect him to be so upset about losing the job, unless he feels that he gives the team the better chance to win. I get the feeling the Rams players don't think Goff has what it takes and if they aren't behind this move, things are going to go south in a hurry.
All of this and I haven't even mentioned that the Dolphins are arguably the better team here and come into this game on a roll, having won 4 straight. While Jay Ajayi and the running game is getting all the praise right now, I've really been impressed with the play of Ryan Tannehill, who I think is now on the same page with head coach and quarterback guru Adam Gase. The perception here is that this isn't a great matchup for Miami, because the Rams have such a talented defensive line. While it's definitely talented, it's much better at getting after the quarterback than stopping the run. LA is only 17th in the league against the run, giving up 103.1 ypg. On top of that, they could be missing two key pieces up front, as Quinn and Brockers are both questionable.
I just think there's too much value here with Miami not to take a shot on the Dolphins in this spot, as I just feel there's a much greater chance that Goff fails in his debut than comes out and lights the world on fire.
BEST BETS
Cardinals (4-4-1) at Vikings (5-4)
As bad as the Vikings have been, currently mired in a four-game losing streak, the Cardinals have been worse. We can see Minnesota snapping out of this current slump. The Vikes are home after playing three of past four on the road. They are 3-1 on this field with only loss occurring in overtime to divisional-foe Detroit. The Packers, Giants and Texans all went down on their respective visits here. Minny has had trouble protecting Sam Bradford, but the QB still managed to throw for 307 yards and two touchdowns in last week?s loss to Washington. While the endorsement for Minnesota might appear mild, Arizona?s recent form elevates this host significantly. The Cardinals only road win this season was against dreadful San Francisco. That?s the same 1-8 San Fran club that Arizona barely snuck by 23-20 last week in the rematch. The Cards? four wins have come against three sub-.500 clubs (Rams, Bucs and the Niners twice). Despite woes, Vikings remain tied atop NFC North. A win here is essential and they should pull it off. TAKING: VIKINGS Even
Bills (4-5) at Bengals (3-5-1)
Having lost three straight, the public might be disenchanted with the Bills, but falling prey to the red-hot Dolphins, Patriots and Seahawks is a fate that many would have succumbed to. Buffalo had won four straight prior to the three-game skid and now they get back to facing a club that is more its speed. Cincinnati can?t seem to get out of its own way. Its offensive line isn?t protecting Andy Dalton nor is it producing running lanes for its ground game. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals rank 24th in both overall yards allowed and rushing yards permitted. That should bode well for talented Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy. We also get that odd scheduling quirk where Cincinnati is on a short week after losing at the Giants on Monday night while Bills rested after regrouping during their bye week. Besides, why would we want to give away points with a team whose only win in its past five games was against the sad-sack Browns? TAKING: BILLS +3
Texans (6-3) vs. Raiders (7-2)
Don?t get fooled by the 6-3 Texans as their record is far superior to their ability. Houston?s offence is about as exciting as a soccer team?s. QB Brock Osweiler has been a bust in his new digs. He currently has a passer rating of 74.1, which ranks higher than only two other quarterbacks being tracked, namely Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blaine Gabbert, both of whom have been benched. Osweiler has just 11 touchdown passes on the year compared to nine interceptions. Scoring just 17.9 points per game, Houston ranks only ahead of the Browns, Rams and Bears. Phooey! Prior to first road win of season at Jacksonville last week, the Texans were outscored 85-22 in three other road defeats. As for the Raiders, they continue to impress. Derek Carr is in the MVP conversation with his 17-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Raiders are strong offensively, getting better defensively and, after a well-earned rest, they should have little trouble disposing of this imposter. TAKING: RAIDERS ?5?
THE REST
Titans (5-5) at Colts (4-5)
This is a corner the Titans would love to turn. Not only have the Colts won the previous 10 meetings between these two, but a Tennessee victory here would create a 1?-game gap between the pair while helping the Titans stay in pursuit of division-leading Texans. With Tennessee?s improved offence (82 points in past two games) facing Indianapolis? questionable defence, there is some hope. However, until we see it happen, we?re not prepared to expect it. The Colts were victorious in Nashville less than a month ago. Indy is home for just the second time in six weeks. They?ve had an extra week to prepare for this one. They know the importance of it as they have a short week coming before facing Steelers. The Titans are shooting for consecutive wins, something they?ve accomplished only once since 2014. Seeing is believing. TAKING: COLTS ?3
Jaguars (2-7) at Lions (5-4)
Folks that believe in QB Blake Bortles haven?t seen him play lately. His record as a starter since taking the helm for the Jaguars in 2014 now stands at a dismal 10-28. The only time he seems to accumulate reasonable throwing stats is during cosmetic time when his team is getting smashed. Don?t get us wrong. Jacksonville?s troubles are not restricted to its quarterback. This team can?t run the ball or defend the run. They own a -14 turnover ratio. With coach Gus Bradley on borrowed time, this group remains a rudderless ship. Now they will head to Detroit to take on a rejuvenated Lions? squad that finds itself atop the NFC North. The rested Leos have won four of past five, led by the stellar play of its quarterback with Matthew Stafford completing 67% of his passes for 18 TDs and only five interceptions. TAKING: LIONS ?6
Buccaneers (4-5) at Chiefs (7-2)
Giving away more than a touchdown with these field-goal happy Chiefs isn?t the most pleasing thing to do. But a closer look shows a difference in class here. Maybe Tampa?s 36-10 win last week has inspired some to get behind the Buccaneers for this one. We can?t put much merit into that one as the screwy 2-7 Bears barely showed up. Tampa?s other wins aren?t much either as they included the 1-8 49ers and the 3-6 Panthers with Derek Anderson quarterbacking Carolina on that day. Somewhat surprisingly, Kansas City has lost just three of its past 21 games. They are in a tight race in the ultra-competitive AFC West and can ill afford even the slightest lapse. Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston has experienced many lapses. Despite flashes of brilliance, he is prone to reckless turnovers. His Bucs 0-4 vs. spread against winning teams this year. TAKING: CHIEFS ?7?
Bears (2-7) at Giants (6-3)
Chicago teased everyone a couple of Mondays ago with upset win over the Vikings. Jay Cutler returned to the lineup after missing some time and the Bears appeared to be improved. That was short-lived. A clunker last week against the Bucs appears to have taken any fight that was left out of this team. Since that loss, Chicago has seen its best receiver get suspended while its top O-lineman, Kyle Long, has been sidelined for the rest of the year. Bears are already 0-5 against the spread in their previous five road games. They just don?t have the manpower nor the desire to compete. The Giants will be going full throttle as they ride a four-game win streak. This will be New York?s third consecutive home game before traveling for a pair. Even though it?s a big spot here, prefer G-Men?s momentum to Chicago?s downward spiral. TAKING: GIANTS ?7?
Ravens (5-4) at Cowboys (8-1)
Both are division leaders at the moment, but the disparity between the two is great. If you?ve seen the Ravens play, you know what we?re talking about. Baltimore lacks offensive playmakers. Their best receiver is 37-year-old Steve Smith Sr. Their No. 1 back is a Cleveland Browns castoff, which explains their 28th-ranked ground game. This is a team that is life-and-death to get to 20 points. Three of Baltimore?s five wins have come against the Jaguars and Browns (x2) and it has yet to defeat a winner. The Cowboys are the only one-loss team in the league with that setback occurring way back in Week 1. Dallas is playing well on both sides of the ball and there is little to believe that the Ravens can keep up. NFC East teams now 9-1 this season vs. teams from crumbling AFC North. TAKING: COWBOYS ?7
Steelers (4-5) at Browns (0-10)
The oddsmaker erred on this one. Figuring that no one is interested in the winless Browns, he set this number at Pittsburgh -10 on openers. Oops. The marketplace came charging in on Cleveland despite its woeful ways and the line dropped to where we see it now, Steelers by 7?. While results are never known until the games are played, that movement is a significant condemnation of slumping Pittsburgh and one worth paying attention to. It?s rare to see a team that has lost four straight, like the Steelers have, giving away such substantial points in a divisional road game. Pittsburgh?s only road win this season was opening week vs. Redskins. Since then, 0-3 while being outscored 85-32. Are we all-in with the Browns here? Of course not. Cleveland is barely fielding a pro team, but given the choice, the points seem plausible. TAKING: CLEVELAND +7?
Dolphins (5-4) at Rams (4-5)
This one has an odd stench to it. The Dolphins are on a roll while the Rams have lost four of five with the only win occurring last week when scoring just nine points. So who is backing Los Angeles here? The answer is twofold. Firstly, defensive stats have the Rams with the seventh-best overall numbers at stopping their opponents. The biggest concern is Miami?s run defence which ranks 30th, ahead of only Cleveland and San Francisco. Secondly, is the oddsmaker. When numbers were first released, L.A. was the small favourite. It is the public that has driven the visitor to be spotting points and that carries a red flag with it. The Rams have finally decided to give rookie QB Jared Goff a chance to get his feet wet. He?ll game-manage and hand off often to Todd Gurley. That might just do the trick. TAKING: RAMS +1?
Patriots (7-2) at 49ers (1-8 )
We won?t insult your intelligence by trying to sell you on the merits of the 49ers here. These two are worlds apart as San Francisco is a team under construction and will take some time for it to compete with clubs such as these Patriots. But as tempting as it may be to give these points away, we can?t recommend it either. Double-digit road favourites are a losing proposition. It?s easy to say that this one is different as the difference between the two clubs is so great, but that same principle would apply almost every time this rarity occurs. The Niners showed some spunk in a close loss and cover to the Cardinals last week in the same price range, but that was on the road. Now home, having to stay within two touchdowns is not out of the question. Have to lean that way. TAKING: 49ers +13
Eagles (5-4) at Seahawks (6-2)
This is typically when the Seahawks start gathering steam. It looks more evident than ever after winning in New England on Sunday night and now they?ll return home where they rarely lose, including 4-0 this season. While the Eagles have been a pleasant surprise after undergoing significant off-season changes, this is a tough spot. Philadelphia has just one win in its five road games, that victory occurring in Chicago back in Week 2. Rookie QB Carson Wentz was heralded as the biggest thing to hit Philly since Rocky Balboa, but the youngster has tapered off with just two touchdowns against four interceptions over the Eagles past five games. Seattle is best when Russell Wilson can do his thing and, after spending the early going on a gimpy leg, Wilson appears to be his old self as the offence has scored 31 points in consecutive games. TAKING: SEAHAWKS ?6?
Packers (4-5) at Redskins (5-3-1)
OK, Packers, enough is enough. Time to be one of the top NFC teams you were supposed to be. If that is to remotely happen, it must start here. After dropping three straight and surrendering 111 points in the process, there is work to be done. But when you have one of the best quarterbacks in the game going for you, there is always hope. That hope is extended when you get a rare opportunity to take back some points with Green Bay. The Packers have been underdogs just once this season and they were able to cover in a 33-32 nailbiter in Atlanta. Redskins are playing well but they have a history of wetting themselves in primetime, where they have just two wins in past 12 tries. Packers also hammered Washington 35-18 in playoffs last year. The investor?s adage to ?sell high, buy low? is very applicable here. TAKING: PACKERS +2?
Packers at Redskins
Play: Over 49.5
The Green Bay Packers head to Washington for their second road game in a row and they are a desperate team. Aaron Rodgers can do all he wants on offense, but one thing we know is that he can't play defense and the Packers are a mess on that side of the ball. We see Rodgers without any kind of running game throwing it well over 50 times on Sunday. Take a look at the Packers points in the last 3 games. They scored 25, 26, and 32 points respectively. All games were losses. The totals for those games were 72, 57 and 65 respectively. Until we see something different from this Packer club we will keep backing the OVER. With the Redskins ranked 6th in total offense, points will be plenty today. Backing our selection is the fact that the Over is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 home games and the fact that the OVER is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
TEN @ IND -2.5
Not surprisingly, after last week?s shellacking of the Packers, the Titans are getting plenty of love from the public. Looks like the sharps have also jumped in the mix, moving the line from the opener of -3. That?s a fairly significant move actually, and the type that forces an astute bettor to look at the home team in most cases. Let?s join those guys and see if we can find a way to back the Colts. First, let?s not forget that Indy just beat the Packers themselves, and they did it on the road, in Lambeau. Second of all, they?re coming off a BYE-week, giving them extra time to prepare and more importantly, to get healthier. A couple of defenders are set to return, most importantly FS Mike Adams. Offensively, Colts are fully healthy as well for the first time since week 1. When these two teams met earlier this year (TEN -4 at home), Indy averaged 6.5 YPP to Tennessee?s 4.9. They were more inefficient on 3rd downs (4 for 10) than the Titans (9 for 15), which made it a back-and-forth type of game with each team trading leads late. I think overall, both teams are fairly even here, and with Indy being at home (Luck is undefeated against the Titans in his career so far - this is not a factor, but an interesting trend nonetheless), I?d give them a very slight edge. With the spread below a FG, this one might be just playable. (By the way, in the offseason, this line was IND -8 FWIW) Lean: IND -2.5
JAX @ DET -6.5
Coming off a BYE week the Lions find themselves at top of NFC North. They didn?t even need to do anything, as all other divisional opponents simply lost last week. But Detroit better not be looking ahead to their Turkey-day game with the Vikings in 4 days. Jags are on a 4-game losing streak, but do you know that the current spread is the second highest all year for them, after they were +7.5 @ KC a few weeks back. Neither Smith nor Ware played in that one though, so the number would have been higher. Still, my point here is that Lions are getting a lot of respect from the bookmakers in this one. This team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite on the year and they still sport the league?s worst defense. Even a crappy offense led by a crappy QB like Bortles should have success here right?....Right?? On the other side, Jags sport a 13th ranked pass-D, which is an important factor going up against a pass-heavy offense like the Lions. In the off-season this line was -3.5 DET. They feel over-valued as well. JAX +6.5
TB @ KC -7
I got this one at -6.5 KC, so the road team is worth some investigating, though the +7.5?s are gone now unfortunately. Part of the reason the line moved is that the bookmakers expect the Chiefs to be undermanned I?m assuming. Maclin is out, Peters (their stud CB) hasn?t practiced all week, DE Howard is out, and Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe are all questionable after each logging one limited practice each. Justin Houston will make his debut this week, though I think he?ll be on snap count in his first game back. One thing to keep in mind is that KC hasn?t really been that dominant lately, even though they?re sporting a 5-win trend. They needed a massive comeback against the Panthers last week and got totally outplayed against the Jags (6.0 YPP vs 4.1 YPP for KC) the week before, winning only due to a 4 to 0 TO differential in the game. Now with a big game @ Denver next week this one is shaping up as a classic ?look ahead? spot for them. Throw in all the injuries and a TD spread, and this one seems fairly solid. Lean: TB +7
CHI @ NYG -7.5
My model has this one at NYG -7, so there?s slight value on the Bears due to the ?hook?. But what a miserable season this is turning out to be for Chicago. There are reports that Jay Cutler has ?lost the locker room? (whatever the heck that means) from current Bears players supposedly. Alshon Jeffery is on the ?juice? and is going to miss the next 4 games. Chicago?s O-line is heavily depleted with Long out for the year and Massie missing this week with a concussion. This team is a mess and now will go against a top-10 Giants D. New York is coming off a big win on MNF, and due to a shorter turnaround, I wouldn?t overpay to back them either. PASS
ARZ @ MIN -2.5
Once ?darlings? of the NFL, these two teams have fallen back into mediocrity as the season has gone on. Both teams feature top-10 defense, but horrific, bottom-10 offenses. Both can rush the passer and neither has the O-line to protect their QB. Arizona barely?and I do mean, barely, beat San Francisco at home last week. Vikings are now sporting a 4-game losing streak. My model has this one at -2 MIN. If you still haven?t figured out what my recommended course of action is here, then you?re not reading these every week! PASS
BAL @ DAL -7.5
I?ve faded the Cowboys for 4 straight weeks now with disastrous results of course. They just keep on winning and covering in the process. Elliot and Prescott are two super-rookies, who have seemingly never heard the concept of a ?rookie wall?. At the very least, they?re not ?hitting? it just yet. Well, I?m going to recommend potentially fading the Cowboys once again here. My model has this one at -6.5 DAL, so the current line provides a ton of value as the ?hook? is in play (Remember, 7 is a key # in NFL). Last week Dallas faced a team with a great offense and a bad D. They barely pulled it out, as predictably (no Church and no Claiborne, their best players in the secondary) the D was bad (allowed 30 points). The offense did just enough to grab a close win. This week, Dallas will face a Baltimore team with an elite defense but a horrific offense. Ravens rank #1 in run-D, 5th in rushing the passer, and 6th against the pass. This team is 1st in Power Scenarios on defense and doesn?t allow runners many yards once they do get to the second level. If any team can stop this Dallas rushing attack, this is it. Will they be able to do it? I?m not sure, as the Cowboys have been matchup-proof so far this season. Still, I think Baltimore brings them down to Earth a bit here. This team has had 10-days to prepare and I expect Harbaugh to have them ready. Offensively, Baltimore has gotten Steve Smith back over the last few weeks, their young rookie RB Kenneth Dixon is finally fully healthy, and Marshal Yanda, their best O-lineman, is set to rejoin the team after missing a few games. Baltimore?s offense is in best shape they?ve been in weeks and I expect them to score some points here. In the NFL, a 7-point spread is a ton. Cowboys have played well enough to show they are deserving of such respect, but I think this week is when they underperform. Lean: BAL +7.5
PIT @ CLE +8
I have this one at -5.8 PIT, so there?s a lot of value on the home dog at this number. Cleveland looked way overmatched the last few weeks, but they?ve faced top-ranked Dallas team and an elite defensive team in the Ravens in those contests. Now they?ll take on a Pittsburgh team that is bottom-10 defensively. Expect the Steelers to be even worse going forward as their stud DT Cameron Heyward is out for the year. Pittsburgh has the worst pass-rush in the league, a bottom-10 pass-D, and now a run-D that is going to get gashed. If Browns can?t score points on this team, they won?t on anyone. Oh, and they?ve had 10-days to prepare for this one. I know it?s not easy, but backing an undervalued home dog is typically a winning proposition. You have such a scenario here. By the way, with almost 90% of all the best on the Steelers, the line moved from -10 to -8: RLM at it?s finest for those that like to look at such a thing. Lean: CLE +8
MIA @ LAR +2
I think this Rams offense is going to get ?worse? before it gets better. I watched this Goff kid in preseason and he looked absolutely clueless playing the most crucial position in football. There?s A reason why he didn?t become a starter till now. He?s NOT ready, but of course Fisher is under a ton of pressure to get him into the game. Miami is sporting a 6th ranked D overall and 4th against the pass. I think Goff?s debut is going to be a disaster. To make matters worse, Gurley re-injured himself at Friday?s practice. He played with a thigh issue last week and looks like it acted up again. Averaging a pathetic 3.1 YPC on the season, expect an even worse performance out of him if he does play. This Rams offense is going to be really bad in this matchup. On the other side, Dolphins are dealing with a lot of injuries. They?re without two starting O-linemen, in Pouncey and Albert and their WR?s are a bit banged up though both should play (Landry / Stills). Still, they?re a much better team than the Rams, and even if their offense plays well below expectations, Miami should have a strong shot of grinding out a win. They are taking this game seriously, as they decided to stay in Southern California after their game @ SD last week, instead of flying back home to Miami. Smart move, similar to what Oakland did a few weeks ago when they played b2b in Florida. Lean: MIA -2
NE @ SF +11.5
I have NE -9 here, so there?s value in the home dog above 10. This one is similar to the PIT @ CLE, where you have a superior road team being a heavy favorite?.AND overvalued. I think when you have scenarios like this, it?s important to remember that the ?spread? is a great equalizer in football. Everyone knows that NE > SF, but is NE -11.5 > SF +11.5? Well, that latter one is debatable of course. New England played a tough game against Seattle at home and now travels cross-country for this one. Sure, they?re motivated to ?win? but are they motivated for a ?blowout?? New England is without Gronk, they traded their best LB last week, and they?ll also be missing Chris Hogan. More importantly, this is a 27th ranked pass-D with non-existent pass-rush (ranked 31st). Expect the Pats to slow the game down by running down San Francisco?s throat, and by minimizing the number of possessions they?ll ultimately have in a game, the chance for a home team cover is that much greater. I?d look to back the ?value?. Lean: SF +11.5
PHI @ SEA -6.5
The spread says that Seattle is 3.5 points better than the Eagles on neutral field. That?s completely inaccurate. Whatever metric you want to look up, Eagles rank as either a ?better? team or just as good as the Seahawks. So why is Seattle this big of a favorite? Well, partly because the public loves them and is overwhelmingly on ?em (70%+). I backed the Seahawks last week as they were greatly undervalued at NE for my Game of the Week. Big part of that was due to New England?s non-existent pass-rush, as I felt that Wilson will be able to do whatever he wanted. He did, and Seattle won. Well, against the Eagles, it?s going to be totally opposite. Philly ranks 2nd in rushing the passer and I expect them to make life very uncomfortable for Wilson. In addition, Philly ranks 1st in pass-D, while New England is 27th. I don?t think Baldwin will be scoring 3 TD?s this week. I know Philly is starting a rookie, which is always dangerous in Seattle, but I think Pederson will once again utilize a heavy run approach here, trying to control the flow and keep Seattle?s offense off the field. Keep in mind that Bennett is still out, and Seattle?s pass-rush isn?t even close to what it is with him in the lineup. I think Wentz and Co. will be alright. This would have been my Game of the Week this week if not for the one I selected, as that one has even better matchup advantages than this. Play: PHI +6.5
GB @ WAS -3
The Packers simply look ?cooked?. The offense looks broken, they have no big-play ability, and the defense can?t stop anyone. Washington, on the other hand, has been impressive. Still, this is a team that is 1-5 ATS as a favorite over the last few years. They are a better team, and my model has them at -4, but I simply can?t back them as a favorite, especially when I?d need them to win by more than a FG. PASS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
In a game that could see inclement weather, the Total has crashed from an opening number of 50 to 46. The Browns have been the 30th ranked defense, giving up 7.8 NYPP and 4.5 YPR. However, the Steelers have been surprisingly almost as bad on defense as their AFC North counterparts, ranking 28th. The difficulty with backing winless teams is that it is tough to gauge when you will get effort, as they Brownies completely gave up last week against the Ravens after leading 7-6 at halftime. The advanced stats model leans to the Browns (+7.5), though it is below the threshold of a play. No opinion on the Total.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Touchdown Tom makes his return home, as it will be the San Mateo kid?s first game back in the Bay Area to face off against his childhood team, the San Franciso 49ers. The Niners are riding an eight-game losing streak as they have not won since week 1. However, they did make progress last week in the closest game during the streak, losing by only a field goal. While the Niners give up 31.4 points per game, the big problem with their team has been the downfield passing attack as Kaepernick has been a shell of his younger self, averaging only 6.0 NYPP. Tom Brady has been the polar opposite of whatever CK7 is doing inside and outside of the pocket, averaging 9.0 NYPP and even in a loss to the vaunted Seahawks pass defense, TB12 put up an efficient 316 yards and 72% completion rate. The advanced stats model leans to the Pats and Over, though both are below model thresholds.
Sunday's comp play winner is the Hawks in the NBA over the Knicks.
Believe it or not, New York has won and covered the last pair of series meetings between the teams.
That changes today, as Atlanta is off to a 9-3 start, and they are playing this game off a loss at Charlotte on Friday night that snapped a 6 game winning streak.
Expect Atlanta to get back into the win column today against the inconsistent Knicks.
New York saw their mini winning streak halted at 2 games with the loss at Washington on Thursday, and while they have had the extra day to get ready for this afternoon affair at the Garden, I don't think the talent matches up for the Knicks to extend the series win streak to 3 straight.
Dwight Howard has made a difference in the Atlanta lineup, and I look for the first meeting of the season between the clubs to land in Atlanta's favor.
Go with the Hawks as the small road favorite on Sunday afternoon.
CAROLINA -? +116 over Winnipeg
Regulation only. We?re really not sure how the Jets are going to summon up enough energy to compete here. The Jets played last night in Boston. They will play their eighth game in the past 12 days, their fourth game in the past six, their third game in four days and the tail end of back to backs after playing in Boston last night. This one is also an earlier start, as the puck drops at 5:00 PM EST. The Jets managed a mere 12 shots on net yesterday in Boston. The most shots the Jets had had in any one period last night was five. Boston fired away 38 shots. Aside from the absolute brutal schedule that the Jets are enduring right now, this is their third road game in a row and their fourth road game in their last six that included a trip to Colorado and Arizona. The Jets are also playing shorthanded with as many as six regulars out and while this is a deep and talented team, the toll that the injuries and schedule has taken has caught up to them and Carolina is not a good matchup under those circumstances.
We love that the Hurricanes were not at their best when they beat Montreal on Friday night. It shows progress that they can win when they don?t play to their potential. In the past, that?s a game they would?ve lost for sure. One can expect a stronger effort here because that?s who the ?Canes are. The Hurricanes relentless pursuit of the puck is a beautiful thing to watch and so is their second to none group of defensemen. Justin Faulk returned to duty last game and now has that one game back under his belt. Carolina has won three in a row over Washington, San Jose and Montreal. They outshot Washington and San Jose by a combined 71-43. They have taken four minor penalties over their past three games. This is a talented, disciplined and very methodically sound group. The ?Canes figure to be highly energized here after one of their weaker performances on Friday and they catch a Jets? squad that is running on fumes, which means chasing the puck and taking a bunch of penalties along the way.
