1:00 PM NFL [253] TEN TITANS -6.5 -110
1:00 PM NFL [258] BAL RAVENS -3.5 -110
1:00 PM NFL [264] TOTAL u44.5 -110 (LA RAMS vrs NO SAINTS)
1:00 PM NFL [266] TOTAL u46-110 (NY GIANTS vrs CLE BROWNS)
1:05 PM NBA [701] Cleveland Cavaliers -11-115
2:30 PM CBB [722] Valparaiso -10.5 -113
3:05 PM NHL [56] Edmonton Oilers -205
1 unit bet pays 68 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Arizona @ Atlanta
Pick: Under 51
This is a high NFL total because of the quarterbacks and all of the big name receiving options. However, in case you haven't noticed, 36-year old QB Carson Palmer (13 TDs, 10 INTs) is looking old and broken down. And he's getting worse, throwing just 8 TDs with 10 picks his last seven starts. Palmer has recorded five of his 10 interceptions in the last three games and managed a season-low 198 passing yards in a 30-24 loss at Minnesota last week. The defense allowed just 217 total yards. Arizona is 7-2 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record. At least the defense is holding its end of the bargain, tops in the NFL in yards allowed, #10 in points (19 per game), and number one against the pass. Atlanta comes off the bye week and a loss at Philly, 24-15. Atlanta TE Jacob Tamme was placed on injured reserve and underwent shoulder surgery during the bye. And the team is 14-4 UNDER the total after a loss.
Jacksonville +7? over BUFFALO
Perhaps the Bills? playoffs hopes strengthened last week with their outright win over Cincinnati but this is still a team that cannot be trusted spotting big weight. Furthermore, that wind tunnel in Buffalo in late November is not the best venue to be spotting significant points in. Buffalo?s offense is still a work in progress, as Tyrod Taylor still suffers from a lack of receivers and he?s not very good to begin with. Buffalo?s defense stepped up last week against Cincinnati but the Bengals have been going backwards for weeks now. Prior to playing Cincinnati, the Bills? defense surrendered 28 points or more in three straight losses.
Boy, we keep going to this Jaguars well and we keep getting wiped out by some bizarre series of events. Jacksonville finds ways to lose but that?s a story for another book. The Jagwires are getting inflated points almost weekly and so we have to dip into that well one more time. The Jags have a decent defense and they have an offense that is composed of the same players that went off last season for major yardage and points. In other words, Jacksonville is a threat worth backing against a team that is just as big a risk as they are.
Giants vs. Browns
Play: Browns +7?
This is definitely a classic case of playing the "ugly dog" theory but I love the winless Browns at home in front of a bye week and ready to give it their all against a Giants team that could easily overlook this 0-11 Cleveland team. New York barely got by the 2-8 Bears last week and the Giants have Pittsburgh, Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia on deck. Three of those teams are division leaders and the other one, Eagles, certainly are still alive for a wild card spot. It will be hard for the Giants to maintain their focus here. New York's offense has not been impressive as they have been held to 351 yards or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Browns defense did hold Pittsburgh to 313 yards last week and the Giants, due to their scuffling offense, have only gone 1-3 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Look for New York to struggle to put away Cleveland in this one and I would not be surprised if the Browns finally get their first straight-up win in a shocker but certainly the play here is to grab the generous points being offered.
Giants / Browns Under 44
Thanks to a much-improved defense, the G-Men are in thick of the NFC East divisional chase and that, in turn, has made them a dead-nuts ?under? team. After going 11-5 to the ?over? last season, the Giants have gone under in seven of their 10 games this season, including a perfect 4-0 on the road. The winless Brownies have also cashed three-straight under tickets, averaging just 8.6 a game during that stretch. The team also tends to play low-scoring affairs against teams with a winning record, going under in 14 of their last 16 games in that situation.
San Diego -1 over HOUSTON
Houston was being billed as the luckiest 6-3-1 team in the history of sports prior to last week?s Monday nighter against the high-flying Raiders. Most of the betting world was anticipating a Raiders blowout in Mexico but that didn?t happen. What happened was that Houston was the better team the entire night and should have won that game with no questions asked. Instead, the refs handed the game to the Raiders and not only did Houston get robbed, those that bet the Raiders ended up cashing one of the luckiest tickets they?ll ever cash. Ironically, it was Oakland that got extremely lucky.
That?s nice, it really is but we?re not going to allow one game or result to influence anything. It was a Monday night and the Raiders were flat as hell. Oakland was also told over and over that they were going to rip apart the Texans and only needed to show up to do so. The Texans were hell-bent on proving everybody wrong and played their hearts out for 60 minutes. This now becomes a spot in which we are likely to see the real Texans, a team that features one of the worst QB?s in the league. Brock Osweiler threw two passes right in the numbers of Oakland CB?s and they dropped them both. Anytime else and that is two picks on top of the two turnovers they already had. The Texans now play another strong squad from the AFC West. We?ll also see the effects of playing at that elevated level last week.
Losing to the visiting Dolphins meant falling one game behind the Raiders but the remaining schedule is very favorable for the Chargers and at worst, they remain in strong contention for a Wild Card. They are a club intent on making the playoffs too. The Bolts have had two weeks to prepare. They are a play or two in every loss from being an undefeated squad. Philip Rivers has been solid all year and even more so over the last month and comes off a nice 326 yard, three touchdown effort over the Dolphins. Rivers already has 20 touchdowns on the season, he?s topped 300 yards on five occasions and his best efforts have been on the road. The Texans may not have been exposed last week but they will likely be this week and we?re all over it.
ATLANTA -5 over Arizona
One of the Super Bowl favorites in the preseason, the Cardinals have taken a step back this year. They started the season 1-3 and haven't been able to dig themselves out of that hole. The big difference this season is that quarterback Carson Palmer looks a lot more like the beat up 36-year-old he is than the MVP runner up that threw for over 4500 yards last season. This year has been a nightmare for Palmer, as he has 10 interceptions to just 13 touchdown passes. Bruce Arians said this week that Palmer ?isn't the problem? and he might be right. Palmer has been under siege all season and that was highlighted in Minnesota last week when Palmer was the first quarterback this season to be pressured on more than 60 percent of his drop backs. It also doesn't help that Palmer has one steady receiver and that's Larry Fitzgerald. When throwing to ?Fitz?, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 104.6. When he looks at Michael Floyd or John Brown that plummets to a pathetic 62.2. The Cardinals are 0-2-1 in their last four including last week's 30-24 loss in Minny. That was a very flattering score for the visitors. The Cards have four wins this season and they are not impressive, as they occurred against San Francisco (twice), the Jets and Tampa Bay. Arizona has been brutal when travelling east this season, losing all three of their road games games in the eastern/central time zones at Minny, Carolina and Buffalo. Two were double-digit losses and last week they allowed the punchless Vikes to hang 30 on them.
The Falcons are coming off their bye after a 24-15 loss at the Eagles in Week 10. There have been some rumblings over their off week that these Falcons are primed for a collapse much like last season but they appear intent on proving the naysayers wrong. The total in this game is 50?, which suggests that the odds makers think this one could be a high scoring affair. Who's going to score all those points? The Falcons are averaging 416 yards per game through the air and they lead the league with 32 points scored per game while the Cards are averaging just 22 PPG. With this game primed to be in the 45 to 55 total points scored range, we wonder how the Cardinals will compete. The Cards are bringing a knife to a gunfight on a fast track and we are therefore swallowing the points.
San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans
Quarterbacks are the franchise faces of NFL teams. They can carry a team to victory or defeat with the Chargers and Texans unquestionably at the opposite ends of the QB satisfaction spectrum. The Chargers are equipped with gunslinger Philip Rivers, who is having another tremendous season, in-line with his illustrious 13-year career. San Diego is the 7th ranked passing team, throwing for 7.1 NYPP and 48.6% success rate. Brock Osweiler?s career has just begun, however, it will be a surprise to everyone if he lasts 13 more weeks, as he has the Texans ranked dead-last in NYPP with a dreadful 5.0 NYPP and 42.8% success rate. Despite the Texans being 6-4 and Chargers 4-6, San Diego is favored on the road. It is easy to look at the quarterback play of the Texans and laugh. However, this ball club has been in every game except for against elite units/team (NE, DEN, MIN). The Texans have the 10th ranked defensive unit in the league and can make it difficult for even franchise quarterbacks. The Texans have been able to have a winning record despite the -6 turnover differential, so as bad as the offense has been, the defense has been able to carry the team for much of the season. On the other side of the ball, while the San Diego defense has improved, they are still the 20th ranked defense that has allowed 28 points per game. The advanced stats model sees value on the team from Texas, so Texans (+1.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to OVER (46).
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are coming off a loss and a bye and suddenly find themselves in a tight NFC South race, where they have only a 1-game lead. Despite losing the game to Philadelphia before the bye, Matt Ryan continued to perform at a high level, throwing for 7.3 NYPP as he has the Falcons as the number 1 passing team based on adjusted NYPP (8.3 NYPP). Matty Ice will face a difficult test as he faces the #3 pass defense in the league in Arizona. Although the two other times he faced top ranked defenses this season(Broncos and Seahawks), the Falcons put up 23 and 24 points while Ryan averaged 7.5 NYPP in those bouts.
The Cardinals? Carson Palmer has continued to be unable to get the passing game going, having his worst statistical season in 7 years, although the red birds may find an easier time going against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in success rate allowed (50.7%). The high scoring teams have continued to outpace the market as OVER teams have been able to surpass the high Totals set as any game that has a Total of OVER (47) or higher has cashed at a 59% rate. The advanced stats model shows value on the dirty birds and Over, so Falcons (-4) and OVER (50.5) are Strong Opinions.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
While the Niners lost to the Patriots and Cardinals the past two weeks, they have finally realized they need to play like they are the underdog, not favorite in order to keep games closer. The Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill continue to impress, now sitting at 6-4, after starting the season 1-4. However, the matchup against the Niners could prove difficult as they are ranked 23rd in stopping the run, giving up 4.4 yards per rush, which is the biggest strength of San Francisco?s team as they rank 10th in adjusted yards per rush. The advanced stats model leans to the OVER (44.5) and 49ers (+7.5), though both are below thresholds.
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders
After the Monday Night Fiesta, in which El Chapo called in the Raiders victory/cover, Oakland is 8-2 and firmly in control of the title of the highest overachieving team this season. The Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL and a -0.4 yards per play differential, as much of their winning ways are due to the extremely positive and highly random +10 turnover differential. Although, while they have overachieved, the Raiders are still an explosive offense as they rank 6th in overall offense due to their ability to gain chunk yardage through the air and ground. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers have underperformed expectations all year, sitting at 4-6, with a defense allowing 25 points a game. Despite Cam Newton not performing up to his previous 2015 MVP-winning season, he is still the 14th ranked passer in the league. One of the biggest differences in the Panthers disappointing season-to-date performance is that at this time last season they were +13 in turnover differential (ending the 2015 regular season +20) and are currently -5 in turnover differential season-to-date. The advanced stats model leans to the OVER (49.5), upgrade to a Strong Opinion at (48). Lean to Raiders (-3).
Carolina Panthers +3
I?m going to fade both teams that played on MNF in Mexico City last week. Short week, playing in unusual environment (elevation over 7k feet). San Diego is coming off a BYE, while Panthers had an ?almost? BYE with 10-days off due to playing on TNF last week. Both will be much fresher than the two teams that just played on Monday Night.
Tennessee Titans -5.5
I was at the Bears @ Packers game on Thursday Night a month ago, when Hoyer got hurt, and Matt Barkley came in for him. Barkley was absolutely horrific. Yes, he?ll have more time to prepare for this one of course, but he?ll also be without Chicago?s top-2 weapons in the passing game: Jeffery and Miller. Throw in the fact that both stud guards are OUT for the Bears, as well as their 1st round pick Leonard Floyd on D. Titans rank 11th in pressuring the QB and a reasonable 15th against the run. Take away Howard and the run-game, and they should cruise to a victory in this one.
New Orleans Saints -7 -120
Two key factors. Saints rank a respectable 16th against the run on defense. I think last year they were 32nd so this is a huge improvement. If they take away the run-game, Goff isn?t good enough to keep this one competitive. Second factor is New Orlean?s 5th ranked O-line in terms of pass-protection. If they can minimize pressure on Brees, he should be able to pick the Rams apart. This is another game where a West Coast team is playing in the 1 PM EST time-slot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6
Seahawks were @ NO in week 8, then flew home to take on Buffalo on MNF, then hit the road in week 9 to go to New England, then home again last week, and now back to the East Coast in week 12. That?s a lot of back-and-forth travel over the last 5 weeks or so. Bennett and now Earl Thomas are out for the Seahawks. Both are, arguably, their two most important defensive players. Bucs are coming off two very impressive wins, a blowout against the Bears and a close win @ KC last week. They?re playing well, and I like the chances of this game being very close.
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
Prior to losing last week, KC has won 5 in a row. This is a bounce-back spot for them. Denver is getting healthier on D (Talib and Wolfe are back) but this is still a run-D that ranks 25th in the league. KC?s conservative offense should be successful here and I expect a close game between two divisional opponents. I?ll grab the team getting more than a FG in this one.
Bengals vs. Ravens
Play: Ravens -3?
I like the value here with Baltimore laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bengals. I know the Ravens have a tendency to play close games, but Cincinnati is in a lot of trouble. Not only did the Bengals lose a huge game at home, they lost two of the better offensive players to injury.
Star wide out A.J. Green suffered a hamstring injury that will have him out this week and maybe the rest of the season. Running back Giovanni Bernard is done for good after tearing his ACL. The loss of Green is a huge blow to the offense. His 66 receptions are easily tops on the team. In fact, the next best is Bernard with 39. Combined the two have been targeted on 151 of Dalton?s 360 pass attempts. Green also has 15 receptions of 20+ yards. The rest of the team has 22.
Dalton is already a limited quarterback as it is. With that said, he looks like a completely different signal caller when Green is on the field compared to when he?s not. Making matters worse, the Bengals are going up against one of the elite defenses in the NFL this week. Baltimore leads the league against the run (76.0 ypg) and are 7th against the pass (219.1 ypg).
It only makes it that much harder for Cincinnati with this game being on the road. The Bengals are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on the highway this season, where they are getting outscored by 6.7 ppg.
I just feel like we are getting value here due to the Ravens having gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. That actually puts them in a favorable situation. Baltimore is 14-4 ATS under Harbaugh after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.
It is also worth pointing out that the Ravens have taken care of business against division foes. They are 3-0 versus the AFC North, with all 3 wins coming by at least 5-points. That includes a recent 21-14 win at home over the Steelers. Cincinnati on the other hand is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against division opponents.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Play: New York Jets+ 7.5
Losses for the New England Patriots are few and far between and they clearly remember their last game versus the NY Jets which came in game #15 last season losing 26-20 in OT.
While some may call for revenge we?ll back the Jets as they have now covered SIX STRAIGHT against the Patriots and amazingly have OUTGAINED New England in all six games.
The Pats are playing their fourth road game in 5 weeks and are coming off a cross country trip beating San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Jets are off a bye week and are 4-0 ATS as a division HD the past four seasons.
Tom Brady will be without his go-to TE Rob Gronkowski and in the four road games Brady has played he faced the NFL?s #32, #31, #20 and #12 defenses with the Jets ranking better than all of them.
Patriots vs. Jets
Play: Jets +7.5
One thing is for sure, if it looks to good to be true in the NFL, it isn't. Tom Brady was held out of practice 3 days this week and is banged up, Gronk is out, and while the Pats did pull off a road win last week against San Fran, it did not come easy for 3 quarters.
The Jets start Fitzpatrick on Sunday and despite his constant errors in throwing picks it seems, the Pats defense has been suspect the past 4 weeks and this is usually a high scoring affair, 11-2 on the OVER the past 13 games in this series, and I expect the Jets to put up a fight as they usually do, as they are 5-1 ATS the last 6 at Met Life Stadium against the mighty Pats, and they are 10-5-1 ATS the last 16 meetings. The Jets are also 3-0 ATS the last 3 meetings.
Nothing comes easy in conference down the stretch boys, never has and never will, expect the Jets to give the Pats all they want on Sunday, and in a back to back road game scenario and a cross country trip last week, and an offense not at 100% for New England, I expect a dogfight on Sunday.
Houston at Portland
Pick: Over
Go, go, go -- these offenses like to run the court with defense as an afterthought. Houston kicked off its second five-game road trip of the young season with its fourth victory in five contests - a 117-104 win over Sacramento on Friday behind an NBA-record 50 attempts from 3-point range and James Harden's fourth triple-double of the season. The Over is 35-16 when the Rockets face the NBA Northwest division. The Trail Blazers began a four-game homestand with a 119-104 victory over New Orleans on Friday. Portland (109.4 points per game) and Houston (108.5) are the fourth-and fifth-highest scoring teams in the NBA. Portland is 10-1 over the total at home and 41-20 over at home against a team with a winning road record. So what happens when these teams meet? The over is 20-7, including 8-2 over at Portland.
Kings -3?
Bounce Back: The Kings had a two-game winning streak snapped with a 117-104 home loss to Houston Friday night. They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.
Reeling Nets: Brooklyn suffered its sixth consecutive loss in a 118-97 setback at a shorthanded Indiana team on Friday. The Nets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Sunday Game: The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games, the Kings 4-0 ATS in their last four.
Cavs vs. 76ers
Play: Cavs -12
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings at Wells Fargo Center, but they've more often than not been asked to cover a bigger spread than this. Their shooting from behind the arc has been flawless this season, downing 10 3-pointers or more in each of their 14 games. How can the 76ers counter that? The short and simple answer is; they can't.
The 76ers were on a bit of a roll but suffered a second straight defeat in a 105-89 home loss to the Bulls Friday night. Joel Embiid sat out as a planned off day, and while he'll be back here there's only that much he can do against this superior Cavaliers team.
Cleveland destroyed the Mavs 128-90 at home Friday night as Kevin Love went 8-of-12 from beyond the arc while LeBron James has a total of 50 points and 24 assists in the last two games. The Cavs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points, and I predict another blowout win here.
BALL STATE AT VALPARAISO
PLAY: VALPARAISO -10
I was very impressed with the Crusaders in a win here in Las Vegas earlier this week against BYU. Valpo beat BYU at the Cougars pace and even though that game was on a neutral court, I would almost have called it a home/neutral for BYU as they have a big following in Las Vegas.
There?s a revenge motive here for Valpo and actually the circumstances are similar to last season. The Crusaders were heading back to Indiana after a two-game trip to face Oregon and Oregon State, and they got ambushed by the Cardinals.
Ball State has had some trouble in the early going. The Cardinals are losing the turnover battles by a substantial margin, and they simply aren?t going to stay with Valpo if the Crusaders get a handful of extra possessions. The home team doesn?t figure to take this for granted after last year?s result, and I think the Crusaders have too many weapons for this to stay close for 40 minutes. I?ll go ahead and give the points with Valparaiso.
1:00 PM NFL [258] BAL RAVENS -3.5 -110
1:00 PM NFL [264] TOTAL u44.5 -110 (LA RAMS vrs NO SAINTS)
1:00 PM NFL [266] TOTAL u46-110 (NY GIANTS vrs CLE BROWNS)
1:05 PM NBA [701] Cleveland Cavaliers -11-115
2:30 PM CBB [722] Valparaiso -10.5 -113
3:05 PM NHL [56] Edmonton Oilers -205
1 unit bet pays 68 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Arizona @ Atlanta
Pick: Under 51
This is a high NFL total because of the quarterbacks and all of the big name receiving options. However, in case you haven't noticed, 36-year old QB Carson Palmer (13 TDs, 10 INTs) is looking old and broken down. And he's getting worse, throwing just 8 TDs with 10 picks his last seven starts. Palmer has recorded five of his 10 interceptions in the last three games and managed a season-low 198 passing yards in a 30-24 loss at Minnesota last week. The defense allowed just 217 total yards. Arizona is 7-2 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record. At least the defense is holding its end of the bargain, tops in the NFL in yards allowed, #10 in points (19 per game), and number one against the pass. Atlanta comes off the bye week and a loss at Philly, 24-15. Atlanta TE Jacob Tamme was placed on injured reserve and underwent shoulder surgery during the bye. And the team is 14-4 UNDER the total after a loss.
Jacksonville +7? over BUFFALO
Perhaps the Bills? playoffs hopes strengthened last week with their outright win over Cincinnati but this is still a team that cannot be trusted spotting big weight. Furthermore, that wind tunnel in Buffalo in late November is not the best venue to be spotting significant points in. Buffalo?s offense is still a work in progress, as Tyrod Taylor still suffers from a lack of receivers and he?s not very good to begin with. Buffalo?s defense stepped up last week against Cincinnati but the Bengals have been going backwards for weeks now. Prior to playing Cincinnati, the Bills? defense surrendered 28 points or more in three straight losses.
Boy, we keep going to this Jaguars well and we keep getting wiped out by some bizarre series of events. Jacksonville finds ways to lose but that?s a story for another book. The Jagwires are getting inflated points almost weekly and so we have to dip into that well one more time. The Jags have a decent defense and they have an offense that is composed of the same players that went off last season for major yardage and points. In other words, Jacksonville is a threat worth backing against a team that is just as big a risk as they are.
Giants vs. Browns
Play: Browns +7?
This is definitely a classic case of playing the "ugly dog" theory but I love the winless Browns at home in front of a bye week and ready to give it their all against a Giants team that could easily overlook this 0-11 Cleveland team. New York barely got by the 2-8 Bears last week and the Giants have Pittsburgh, Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia on deck. Three of those teams are division leaders and the other one, Eagles, certainly are still alive for a wild card spot. It will be hard for the Giants to maintain their focus here. New York's offense has not been impressive as they have been held to 351 yards or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Browns defense did hold Pittsburgh to 313 yards last week and the Giants, due to their scuffling offense, have only gone 1-3 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Look for New York to struggle to put away Cleveland in this one and I would not be surprised if the Browns finally get their first straight-up win in a shocker but certainly the play here is to grab the generous points being offered.
Giants / Browns Under 44
Thanks to a much-improved defense, the G-Men are in thick of the NFC East divisional chase and that, in turn, has made them a dead-nuts ?under? team. After going 11-5 to the ?over? last season, the Giants have gone under in seven of their 10 games this season, including a perfect 4-0 on the road. The winless Brownies have also cashed three-straight under tickets, averaging just 8.6 a game during that stretch. The team also tends to play low-scoring affairs against teams with a winning record, going under in 14 of their last 16 games in that situation.
San Diego -1 over HOUSTON
Houston was being billed as the luckiest 6-3-1 team in the history of sports prior to last week?s Monday nighter against the high-flying Raiders. Most of the betting world was anticipating a Raiders blowout in Mexico but that didn?t happen. What happened was that Houston was the better team the entire night and should have won that game with no questions asked. Instead, the refs handed the game to the Raiders and not only did Houston get robbed, those that bet the Raiders ended up cashing one of the luckiest tickets they?ll ever cash. Ironically, it was Oakland that got extremely lucky.
That?s nice, it really is but we?re not going to allow one game or result to influence anything. It was a Monday night and the Raiders were flat as hell. Oakland was also told over and over that they were going to rip apart the Texans and only needed to show up to do so. The Texans were hell-bent on proving everybody wrong and played their hearts out for 60 minutes. This now becomes a spot in which we are likely to see the real Texans, a team that features one of the worst QB?s in the league. Brock Osweiler threw two passes right in the numbers of Oakland CB?s and they dropped them both. Anytime else and that is two picks on top of the two turnovers they already had. The Texans now play another strong squad from the AFC West. We?ll also see the effects of playing at that elevated level last week.
Losing to the visiting Dolphins meant falling one game behind the Raiders but the remaining schedule is very favorable for the Chargers and at worst, they remain in strong contention for a Wild Card. They are a club intent on making the playoffs too. The Bolts have had two weeks to prepare. They are a play or two in every loss from being an undefeated squad. Philip Rivers has been solid all year and even more so over the last month and comes off a nice 326 yard, three touchdown effort over the Dolphins. Rivers already has 20 touchdowns on the season, he?s topped 300 yards on five occasions and his best efforts have been on the road. The Texans may not have been exposed last week but they will likely be this week and we?re all over it.
ATLANTA -5 over Arizona
One of the Super Bowl favorites in the preseason, the Cardinals have taken a step back this year. They started the season 1-3 and haven't been able to dig themselves out of that hole. The big difference this season is that quarterback Carson Palmer looks a lot more like the beat up 36-year-old he is than the MVP runner up that threw for over 4500 yards last season. This year has been a nightmare for Palmer, as he has 10 interceptions to just 13 touchdown passes. Bruce Arians said this week that Palmer ?isn't the problem? and he might be right. Palmer has been under siege all season and that was highlighted in Minnesota last week when Palmer was the first quarterback this season to be pressured on more than 60 percent of his drop backs. It also doesn't help that Palmer has one steady receiver and that's Larry Fitzgerald. When throwing to ?Fitz?, Palmer has a quarterback rating of 104.6. When he looks at Michael Floyd or John Brown that plummets to a pathetic 62.2. The Cardinals are 0-2-1 in their last four including last week's 30-24 loss in Minny. That was a very flattering score for the visitors. The Cards have four wins this season and they are not impressive, as they occurred against San Francisco (twice), the Jets and Tampa Bay. Arizona has been brutal when travelling east this season, losing all three of their road games games in the eastern/central time zones at Minny, Carolina and Buffalo. Two were double-digit losses and last week they allowed the punchless Vikes to hang 30 on them.
The Falcons are coming off their bye after a 24-15 loss at the Eagles in Week 10. There have been some rumblings over their off week that these Falcons are primed for a collapse much like last season but they appear intent on proving the naysayers wrong. The total in this game is 50?, which suggests that the odds makers think this one could be a high scoring affair. Who's going to score all those points? The Falcons are averaging 416 yards per game through the air and they lead the league with 32 points scored per game while the Cards are averaging just 22 PPG. With this game primed to be in the 45 to 55 total points scored range, we wonder how the Cardinals will compete. The Cards are bringing a knife to a gunfight on a fast track and we are therefore swallowing the points.
San Diego Chargers @ Houston Texans
Quarterbacks are the franchise faces of NFL teams. They can carry a team to victory or defeat with the Chargers and Texans unquestionably at the opposite ends of the QB satisfaction spectrum. The Chargers are equipped with gunslinger Philip Rivers, who is having another tremendous season, in-line with his illustrious 13-year career. San Diego is the 7th ranked passing team, throwing for 7.1 NYPP and 48.6% success rate. Brock Osweiler?s career has just begun, however, it will be a surprise to everyone if he lasts 13 more weeks, as he has the Texans ranked dead-last in NYPP with a dreadful 5.0 NYPP and 42.8% success rate. Despite the Texans being 6-4 and Chargers 4-6, San Diego is favored on the road. It is easy to look at the quarterback play of the Texans and laugh. However, this ball club has been in every game except for against elite units/team (NE, DEN, MIN). The Texans have the 10th ranked defensive unit in the league and can make it difficult for even franchise quarterbacks. The Texans have been able to have a winning record despite the -6 turnover differential, so as bad as the offense has been, the defense has been able to carry the team for much of the season. On the other side of the ball, while the San Diego defense has improved, they are still the 20th ranked defense that has allowed 28 points per game. The advanced stats model sees value on the team from Texas, so Texans (+1.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to OVER (46).
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are coming off a loss and a bye and suddenly find themselves in a tight NFC South race, where they have only a 1-game lead. Despite losing the game to Philadelphia before the bye, Matt Ryan continued to perform at a high level, throwing for 7.3 NYPP as he has the Falcons as the number 1 passing team based on adjusted NYPP (8.3 NYPP). Matty Ice will face a difficult test as he faces the #3 pass defense in the league in Arizona. Although the two other times he faced top ranked defenses this season(Broncos and Seahawks), the Falcons put up 23 and 24 points while Ryan averaged 7.5 NYPP in those bouts.
The Cardinals? Carson Palmer has continued to be unable to get the passing game going, having his worst statistical season in 7 years, although the red birds may find an easier time going against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in success rate allowed (50.7%). The high scoring teams have continued to outpace the market as OVER teams have been able to surpass the high Totals set as any game that has a Total of OVER (47) or higher has cashed at a 59% rate. The advanced stats model shows value on the dirty birds and Over, so Falcons (-4) and OVER (50.5) are Strong Opinions.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
While the Niners lost to the Patriots and Cardinals the past two weeks, they have finally realized they need to play like they are the underdog, not favorite in order to keep games closer. The Dolphins and Ryan Tannehill continue to impress, now sitting at 6-4, after starting the season 1-4. However, the matchup against the Niners could prove difficult as they are ranked 23rd in stopping the run, giving up 4.4 yards per rush, which is the biggest strength of San Francisco?s team as they rank 10th in adjusted yards per rush. The advanced stats model leans to the OVER (44.5) and 49ers (+7.5), though both are below thresholds.
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders
After the Monday Night Fiesta, in which El Chapo called in the Raiders victory/cover, Oakland is 8-2 and firmly in control of the title of the highest overachieving team this season. The Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL and a -0.4 yards per play differential, as much of their winning ways are due to the extremely positive and highly random +10 turnover differential. Although, while they have overachieved, the Raiders are still an explosive offense as they rank 6th in overall offense due to their ability to gain chunk yardage through the air and ground. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers have underperformed expectations all year, sitting at 4-6, with a defense allowing 25 points a game. Despite Cam Newton not performing up to his previous 2015 MVP-winning season, he is still the 14th ranked passer in the league. One of the biggest differences in the Panthers disappointing season-to-date performance is that at this time last season they were +13 in turnover differential (ending the 2015 regular season +20) and are currently -5 in turnover differential season-to-date. The advanced stats model leans to the OVER (49.5), upgrade to a Strong Opinion at (48). Lean to Raiders (-3).
Carolina Panthers +3
I?m going to fade both teams that played on MNF in Mexico City last week. Short week, playing in unusual environment (elevation over 7k feet). San Diego is coming off a BYE, while Panthers had an ?almost? BYE with 10-days off due to playing on TNF last week. Both will be much fresher than the two teams that just played on Monday Night.
Tennessee Titans -5.5
I was at the Bears @ Packers game on Thursday Night a month ago, when Hoyer got hurt, and Matt Barkley came in for him. Barkley was absolutely horrific. Yes, he?ll have more time to prepare for this one of course, but he?ll also be without Chicago?s top-2 weapons in the passing game: Jeffery and Miller. Throw in the fact that both stud guards are OUT for the Bears, as well as their 1st round pick Leonard Floyd on D. Titans rank 11th in pressuring the QB and a reasonable 15th against the run. Take away Howard and the run-game, and they should cruise to a victory in this one.
New Orleans Saints -7 -120
Two key factors. Saints rank a respectable 16th against the run on defense. I think last year they were 32nd so this is a huge improvement. If they take away the run-game, Goff isn?t good enough to keep this one competitive. Second factor is New Orlean?s 5th ranked O-line in terms of pass-protection. If they can minimize pressure on Brees, he should be able to pick the Rams apart. This is another game where a West Coast team is playing in the 1 PM EST time-slot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6
Seahawks were @ NO in week 8, then flew home to take on Buffalo on MNF, then hit the road in week 9 to go to New England, then home again last week, and now back to the East Coast in week 12. That?s a lot of back-and-forth travel over the last 5 weeks or so. Bennett and now Earl Thomas are out for the Seahawks. Both are, arguably, their two most important defensive players. Bucs are coming off two very impressive wins, a blowout against the Bears and a close win @ KC last week. They?re playing well, and I like the chances of this game being very close.
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
Prior to losing last week, KC has won 5 in a row. This is a bounce-back spot for them. Denver is getting healthier on D (Talib and Wolfe are back) but this is still a run-D that ranks 25th in the league. KC?s conservative offense should be successful here and I expect a close game between two divisional opponents. I?ll grab the team getting more than a FG in this one.
Bengals vs. Ravens
Play: Ravens -3?
I like the value here with Baltimore laying less than a touchdown at home against the Bengals. I know the Ravens have a tendency to play close games, but Cincinnati is in a lot of trouble. Not only did the Bengals lose a huge game at home, they lost two of the better offensive players to injury.
Star wide out A.J. Green suffered a hamstring injury that will have him out this week and maybe the rest of the season. Running back Giovanni Bernard is done for good after tearing his ACL. The loss of Green is a huge blow to the offense. His 66 receptions are easily tops on the team. In fact, the next best is Bernard with 39. Combined the two have been targeted on 151 of Dalton?s 360 pass attempts. Green also has 15 receptions of 20+ yards. The rest of the team has 22.
Dalton is already a limited quarterback as it is. With that said, he looks like a completely different signal caller when Green is on the field compared to when he?s not. Making matters worse, the Bengals are going up against one of the elite defenses in the NFL this week. Baltimore leads the league against the run (76.0 ypg) and are 7th against the pass (219.1 ypg).
It only makes it that much harder for Cincinnati with this game being on the road. The Bengals are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on the highway this season, where they are getting outscored by 6.7 ppg.
I just feel like we are getting value here due to the Ravens having gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. That actually puts them in a favorable situation. Baltimore is 14-4 ATS under Harbaugh after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.
It is also worth pointing out that the Ravens have taken care of business against division foes. They are 3-0 versus the AFC North, with all 3 wins coming by at least 5-points. That includes a recent 21-14 win at home over the Steelers. Cincinnati on the other hand is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against division opponents.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Play: New York Jets+ 7.5
Losses for the New England Patriots are few and far between and they clearly remember their last game versus the NY Jets which came in game #15 last season losing 26-20 in OT.
While some may call for revenge we?ll back the Jets as they have now covered SIX STRAIGHT against the Patriots and amazingly have OUTGAINED New England in all six games.
The Pats are playing their fourth road game in 5 weeks and are coming off a cross country trip beating San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Jets are off a bye week and are 4-0 ATS as a division HD the past four seasons.
Tom Brady will be without his go-to TE Rob Gronkowski and in the four road games Brady has played he faced the NFL?s #32, #31, #20 and #12 defenses with the Jets ranking better than all of them.
Patriots vs. Jets
Play: Jets +7.5
One thing is for sure, if it looks to good to be true in the NFL, it isn't. Tom Brady was held out of practice 3 days this week and is banged up, Gronk is out, and while the Pats did pull off a road win last week against San Fran, it did not come easy for 3 quarters.
The Jets start Fitzpatrick on Sunday and despite his constant errors in throwing picks it seems, the Pats defense has been suspect the past 4 weeks and this is usually a high scoring affair, 11-2 on the OVER the past 13 games in this series, and I expect the Jets to put up a fight as they usually do, as they are 5-1 ATS the last 6 at Met Life Stadium against the mighty Pats, and they are 10-5-1 ATS the last 16 meetings. The Jets are also 3-0 ATS the last 3 meetings.
Nothing comes easy in conference down the stretch boys, never has and never will, expect the Jets to give the Pats all they want on Sunday, and in a back to back road game scenario and a cross country trip last week, and an offense not at 100% for New England, I expect a dogfight on Sunday.
Houston at Portland
Pick: Over
Go, go, go -- these offenses like to run the court with defense as an afterthought. Houston kicked off its second five-game road trip of the young season with its fourth victory in five contests - a 117-104 win over Sacramento on Friday behind an NBA-record 50 attempts from 3-point range and James Harden's fourth triple-double of the season. The Over is 35-16 when the Rockets face the NBA Northwest division. The Trail Blazers began a four-game homestand with a 119-104 victory over New Orleans on Friday. Portland (109.4 points per game) and Houston (108.5) are the fourth-and fifth-highest scoring teams in the NBA. Portland is 10-1 over the total at home and 41-20 over at home against a team with a winning road record. So what happens when these teams meet? The over is 20-7, including 8-2 over at Portland.
Kings -3?
Bounce Back: The Kings had a two-game winning streak snapped with a 117-104 home loss to Houston Friday night. They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.
Reeling Nets: Brooklyn suffered its sixth consecutive loss in a 118-97 setback at a shorthanded Indiana team on Friday. The Nets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Sunday Game: The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games, the Kings 4-0 ATS in their last four.
Cavs vs. 76ers
Play: Cavs -12
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings at Wells Fargo Center, but they've more often than not been asked to cover a bigger spread than this. Their shooting from behind the arc has been flawless this season, downing 10 3-pointers or more in each of their 14 games. How can the 76ers counter that? The short and simple answer is; they can't.
The 76ers were on a bit of a roll but suffered a second straight defeat in a 105-89 home loss to the Bulls Friday night. Joel Embiid sat out as a planned off day, and while he'll be back here there's only that much he can do against this superior Cavaliers team.
Cleveland destroyed the Mavs 128-90 at home Friday night as Kevin Love went 8-of-12 from beyond the arc while LeBron James has a total of 50 points and 24 assists in the last two games. The Cavs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points, and I predict another blowout win here.
BALL STATE AT VALPARAISO
PLAY: VALPARAISO -10
I was very impressed with the Crusaders in a win here in Las Vegas earlier this week against BYU. Valpo beat BYU at the Cougars pace and even though that game was on a neutral court, I would almost have called it a home/neutral for BYU as they have a big following in Las Vegas.
There?s a revenge motive here for Valpo and actually the circumstances are similar to last season. The Crusaders were heading back to Indiana after a two-game trip to face Oregon and Oregon State, and they got ambushed by the Cardinals.
Ball State has had some trouble in the early going. The Cardinals are losing the turnover battles by a substantial margin, and they simply aren?t going to stay with Valpo if the Crusaders get a handful of extra possessions. The home team doesn?t figure to take this for granted after last year?s result, and I think the Crusaders have too many weapons for this to stay close for 40 minutes. I?ll go ahead and give the points with Valparaiso.
