01:00 PM NFL [352] TOTAL u38.5 -110 (DEN BRONCOS vrs JAX JAGUARS)
01:00 PM NFL [354] ATL FALCONS -3-170 (B+2)
01:00 PM NFL [360] NO SAINTS -6.5 -110
04:25 PM NFL [369] TB BUCCANEERS +5.5 -150 (B+2)
02:30 PM SOC [211521] TOTAL o2.5 -138 (Villa Espanola vrs Wanderers) URUGUAY - PRIMERA DIVISION
07:35 PM NBA [506] New York Knicks -2-105
02:00 PM CBB Added Game [529] Canisius +16-110
07:05 PM NHL [10] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 +180
1 unit bet pays 172 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
Play: Houston Texans +6.5
This number jumped virtually as soon as Green Bay disposed of Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers were as low as a 4-point favorite, but climbed to as high as 6 1/2 and even 7, by Tuesday. Once again, Green Bay didn't run well in their win over the Eagles, gaining just 74 yards on 28 carries, but Aaron Rodgers had a big night through the air. Houston's strength is their pass defense, where they rank 5th in the league, allowing just 209.2 yards passing per game. The Packer pass defense can be permissive and let's not forget they allowed 42, 47, 31, & 33 points in their four games before beating Philly. Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota recently combined for 670 yards passing, 7 TDs and no INTs, over a 2-week stretch against the Packers. Brock Osweiler has his troubles passing downfield, there's no denying his weaknesses, but he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the defense he'll face in this one. The Pack have covered just one of their last five when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night appearance. And finally, the Texans have bounced back well off a bad game, currently on a 6-0 ATS run following a game where they scored no more than 14 points, including 3-0 SU & ATS this season.
PITTSBURGH -6? over N.Y. Giants
The New York football Giants have won six games in a row, they?re 8-3 overall and they?re the only team in the NFL to defeat the Dallas Cowboys this year. Why then, is the second hottest team in the league getting a near converted TD against an inconsistent Steelers team? If we can help it, we never ignore what the odds makers are trying to sell us and in this case, they are doing everything they can to sell us the Giants. So, if you were leaning G-Men, now would be the time to do a complete 180? and here?s why: The six-game winning streak was great but all games were by the slimmest of margins and New York could have just as easily lost all six. The Giants defeated Cinci by one-point, Chicago by six, the Rams by seven when they scored just 17 points, the Eagles by five points, the Ravens by four points and finally last week by 14 points against Cleveland but that game never felt comfortable for Giants? backers. That?s a whole slew of terrible offenses that the Giants have played and the result is a bunch of hugely crooked defensive numbers that are not legit. Furthermore, it?s not like Eli Manning and the Giants were lighting up the scoreboard either against those aforementioned weak teams. The Giants do not make up their own schedule but there is a price to pay after playing weak teams. It does not prepare you to play strong teams and that is exactly what the Giants are up against this week. Lastly, the Giants play the Cowboys next week.
Let us now take you back to Week 4 when the Kansas City Chiefs went into Pittsburgh as a 3?-point dog after Pittsburgh was crushed the week before, 34-3 by Philadelphia. The Steelers responded by hammering the Chiefs, 43-14 and we promise you that Kansas City is better than the Giants. Of course, things don?t work that way but the point is that the Steelers are capable of absolutely destroying overrated teams of which the Giants are one. The Steelers are not about to mess around here. Incredibly, Pittsburgh has not won a home game since Week 5 against the Jets. Since then, Pittsburgh has played just two home games and four on the road. Those two home games came against New England and Dallas and against the Patriots, Pittsburgh was without Big Ben. Now the Steelers are healthy and hungry. They were the preseason favorite at many books to win the Super Bowl but injuries and a difficult schedule has taken a bit of a toll. Now it?s the time for the Steelers to thrive and give their loyal fans something to cheer about. Pittsburgh boasts an experienced, accomplished staff with great stability while the Giants newbie staff has not had to deal with a team like the Steelers in early December when the chips are down. This is a mismatch any way you slice it because Pittsburgh wins games with the exact formula the Giants employs to lose them only that divergence has not been revealed this year. It will be here.
ATLANTA -5? over Kansas City
Kansas City is no joke. Since starting 0-5 last season, Andy Reid?s Chiefs have posted a record of 19-3, by far the best in the league. Still, when we do bet them, we are almost always screaming at the TV because they always seem to do it the hard way and get big breaks at the most opportune times. Last week, the Chiefs mounted a successful comeback to throw the game into overtime and then kicked the winning field goal that the Broncos were unable to get on the previous series. A second road game is tough after a full five quarter game the previous week against one of their most hated rivals. The Chiefs also have to resist the urge to look past this to next week?s showdown with the Raiders. Alex Smith somehow pulls rabbits out of his hat too. Here?s a guy that was sacked six times last week. Here?s a guy that is being asked to throw four yards or less on just about every attempt. Only when the Chiefs are desperate for a late TD to tie or win it will Reid open up the playbook. How this team has won 19 of 22 games is a mystery but perhaps it speaks to all the weak or beatable teams in this league. Or perhaps it speaks to just how fortunate these Chiefs have been. Perhaps the Chiefs are a joke.
Let?s not forget that Kansas City had a chance to keep their spot at the top of the division with a home win against 4-5 Tampa Bay two weeks ago in a game that most thought would be a comfortable one. Instead, the Bucs rolled up 442 yards of offense, converted 11 of 16 third down plays and dominated the Chiefs for most of the game in a 19-17 win. The week before that, the Chiefs looked they were going to get blown out in Carolina but another late fourth quarter rally and some poor ball handling skills by the Panthers allowed them to pull another rabbit out of their hat. The week before that, the Chiefs were once again dominated on the stat sheet in Jacksonville but pulled out another miracle win in a game they had no business winning whatsoever.
Matt Ryan continues his career best season. He's already totaled 26 touchdowns with five games over 300 yards. He's been at his best at home too. The Falcons played a solid game in a blowout win over the Cardinals last week. That victory keeps them one game ahead of the Buccaneers and in the running for the #2 seed in the NFC thanks to the Seahawks' loss. Situationally speaking, the Falcons and their high octane offense are in such a better spot here. Last week was not draining. Next week, the Dirty Birds are in Los Angeles. They control their own fate and figure to be ready and focused here. By contrast, the Chiefs won an emotional and hard fought overtime game that went the distance last week in prime time and they have the Raiders up next. This week?s game is against an NFC opponent on the road and after getting torched on the stat sheet against both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay very recently, the Chiefs are not likely going to be able to trade punches with the Falcons. There will be no rabbits this week for the Chiefs to pull out.
Washington +115 over ARIZONA
It's Week 13 and you can throw preseason hype right out the window. We've seen enough from the Cardinals to know it's over. Bruce Arians should be on the hot seat, as he seems to get dumber with each passing week and he?s coaching an incredibly undisciplined bunch. The Cardinals took eight penalties for 60 yards in a 38-19 blowout loss in Atlanta last week. These Cardinals don't even look like they practice. Larry Fitzgerald is the only receiver that knows what route he's running. Carson Palmer is finished. Instead of talking playoffs, the Cards should be scouting this year's NCAA quarterback class. Arizona?s pedigree over the years is one of a structurally sound group that is difficult to play against but that is no longer the case. They are now soft and extremely beatable with no appeal whatsoever.
The Redskins are quietly having a nice season that's been overshadowed by the 10-1 Cowboys. Add the fact the 'Boys took a stranglehold on the NFC East with their 31-26 win over Washington on Thanksgiving and it's easy to overlook the 'Skins. We will not. Kirk Cousins backed up his bold public contract demands with another great game. We often see appeal in these road dogs getting +2? points because odds makers are enticing bettors to side with the home team. Many bettors want that extra half point on the dog and instead of hanging it up there, the odds makers make the favorite more enticing by making a FG victory a winning bet. The total in this game is 49?, which is a pretty fat number. Who do you trust to put up those points? Washington has deep threats with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Jamison Crowder has been one of the more reliable receivers in the league this season. Tight end Jordan Reed is nearly impossible to cover. The Redskins hung with the best team in the NFC and had their chances to win that game in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Washington gets better every single week while the Cardinals look to be on the verge of quitting if they haven?t already. How the Cardinals can be the favorite against a legit playoff contender is mystifying. Carson Palmer is down at the bottom of the QB Passer Ratings while the Redskin's defense is thriving and so is the offense. ?Skins outright.
BALTIMORE -3? over Miami
After a six game winning streak, ESPN said, ?The Dolphins have the look of a legitimate playoff team.? It's been a nice run and story but we're here to pump the breaks on Miami's post season aspirations. We cannot ignore the last two weeks where the Dolphins barely escaped with victories against San Francisco and Los Angeles. Last week it took a game saving tackle from Kiko Alonso on 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who was stopped just short of forcing overtime. Two weeks ago, Miami looked dead in the water in L.A. but somehow pulled out a miracle win with 14 points late in the fourth quarter. Five of the Dolphins six wins during this span have come by one score or less. It's a fine line to toe especially with the league?s 30th ranked run defense. The Dolphins are a middle of the pack team when it comes to points allowed per game. It's like they've won six coin flips in a row. After breaking out with back to back 200 yard games, running back Jay Ajayi has struggled the last three weeks by failing to reach the 100 yard mark each time. Last week against the 49ers, Ajayi could only muster 45 yards on 18 carries. He's trending in the wrong direction and doesn?t figure to get back on track when facing the NFL?s top run defense here. Ryan Tannehill is just about due for another one of those games that he has several of each year in which he looks like the worst QB ever.
The Ravens have won three of their last four. Their only loss over that span was against the 10-1 Cowboys in Dallas. Baltimore is in the clutter of teams contending for a Wild Card playoff spot but they also control their own destiny in the AFC North. On the surface, the Ravens have been great this season with the number one ranked run defense, allowing just 76 yards a game. Under the hood, the Ravens have the number one Weighted Defense in the league, a stat that is adjusted as the season goes on, making the games played earlier in the year less important. It?s a good way to measure a team's current form and/or progress. Offensively, the Ravens are still capable of making the big play and they should be able to establish a run game against a weak Miami run defense. This line opened at -3? for the Ravens, which is a number we love to see when playing favorites. That "hook" on a key number like "3" is an added enticement by the odd makers to take the points. We will not be fooled, as the Ravens are built to win in November while the Dolphins are likely to freeze, just like they did the past two weeks but got away with it. They won?t get away with it here.
Buffalo +3 over OAKLAND
The Raiders are one of the NFL?s biggest headlines in 2016. The Raiders sit at 9-2 while owning one of the best records in the league and an AFC-leading mark that they currently share with the New England Patriots. The Raiders are in position to do big things. This is a squad that is currently contending for home field advantage and a first-round bye in the AFC leg of the playoffs after missing the post-season last year with an 8-8 mark. The Raiders seem to get better each and every week. They have now won five in a row while knocking off both participants in last year?s Super Bowl along the way. After defeating the Panthers last week behind a very impressive first half, the Raiders hype has hit new heights. They have moved up to #2 on many publications power rankings. The odds on them to win the Super Bowl dropped dramatically. Every sports show on both radio and television is talking the Oakland Raiders this week. Why then are the Raiders such a small favorite against the Bills? If the Bills were visiting the exact same 9-2 New England Patriots this week (a much shorter trip against a familiar foe), the line would not be -3. It would be twice that and maybe even -7. So, before you pull the trigger on the Raiders, think about that for a second. One of the criteria?s for successful wagering is to recognize trouble spots or trap games and this is a prime example of that.
In many markets, if the game is considered a toss-up on a neutral site, the home team will give three points to the intruder by default and that is what looks to be the situation here. So why is Oakland, a team with a better record and a clear hot hand, considered a toss-up anywhere else against a team like Buffalo? Very simple, Oakland is not as good as their record suggests. The Raiders own one of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL in every major category. The Black and Silver are among the worst in Total Defense and Passing Defense and while that may bear little significance to a maligned offense like Buffalo?s, we can?t help but ponder if the Raiders will offer any concessions to this visitor. Oakland?s suspect defense has put the Raiders in predicaments where they could have lost many more games than the record they currently sport implies. Five of Oakland?s nine victories this year were by margins of four points or less. Eight of Oakland?s wins were by a touchdown or less and one of these triumphs required overtime. It seems that the Raiders have been the benefactors of good fortune and it is only a matter of time until when that good fortune runs out. The odds makers did not make a mistake in setting this line. They?re betting that Oakland is in big trouble this week and we?re going to pay attention to that big time.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Play: Atlanta Falcons -5
The Chiefs are coming off a come-from-behind upset win over the Broncos in Denver, 30-27 in overtime. Kansas City is in a very difficult spot here. Coming off that huge divisional win, the Chiefs have an even bigger game on deck against the Raiders for the AFC West lead. Ask Dallas how difficult these "division sandwich spots" are, as they barely escaped Minnesota with a win in the same scenario on Thursday night.
The Chiefs have been winning in spite of themselves. They were outgained by a whopping 191 yards in Denver. The week prior, they lost at home to Tampa Bay as a TD favorite. KC was outgained by 85 yards and had to rally from 17 points back to win in Carolina the week before that. And they were outgained by a massive 218 yards when they escaped with a 19-14 home win over lowly Jacksonville before that.
The Falcons are off a big 38-19 win over the Cardinals. Atlanta is playing very well, especially offensively. Atlanta's weakness is pass defense, but the Chiefs lack the vertical passing attack to take advantage. The Falcons have a well-balanced, explosive offense that is tough to defend for teams like the Chiefs who are not familiar with them.
The Chiefs just seem to keep finding ways to win under head coach Andy Reid. KC is 19-4 SU in their last 23 games dating back to last season. The oddsmakers know that, yet they opened the Chiefs as 'dogs of more than a FG. Looks to me like they're trying to get bettors to grab KC. I'm not biting.
I expect Kansas City, off a big division win with a bigger division game on deck, to come out a little flat here. I
Broncos at Jaguars
Pick: Under 40
Many pundits in August were touting this as the year of the Jaguars and projected this team into the playoffs. They are in the weakest division in the NFL and will carry a woeful 2-9 record into this contest. So what has gone wrong? The first place to look, and an area the Jags thought they had covered is at QB. Blake Bortles has now started 41 games and is 10-31, averaging just 19.8 points per game. That drops to 16.4 points per game vs. an above average defense, where his passer rating is an ugly 70.1. He has thrown 13 INTs on the season. The Jags defense has been very good allowing just 5.2 yards a play vs. teams that generate 5.7. Denver has offensive issues of their own, and now Trevor Siemian is out with a foot injury. They will have to rely on one of the best defenses in the NFL to do so. So in a nutshell, we have a Denver offense, with a back up quarterback, and a Jacksonville offense that struggles vs. even a pedestrian defense, but going against an elite one here.
Bucs +4
The big success in the Bucs recent 3 game winning streak has been fueled by the defense...They have allowed a total of 32 points in those 3 winning contests...They beat some decent teams and they really took it to the Seahawks last week....This Tampa team in most of our minds would be right about at this record right now...I had them slightly above and finishing the season 9-7 fwiw...This is almost a must win game for them or the season could be lost...The Chargers on the other hand hold a slim HFA and the season for them is lost at this point...Chargers sit 5-6 and would need to reel off a few game winning streak..I just don't see that happening...Tampa has been running and passing much better which keeps them in the game...One part or another for the Chargers seems to fall off in every game and I expect that again..I still think the Bucs finish with a winning record, but winning this game won't be easy...I made my line for this game SD -1.5...So grabbing this over the key number of 3 is a no brainer for me today...I can see a 1-3pt game here...I feel the Bucs passing game will make some big plays and the Tampa defense keeps true to it's recent form.
Patriots -13
Though the Patriots have looked a bit flat since their bye week (just 1-2 vs.line last three), that's relative in comparison to the plight of the Rams, who have won just once since Columbus Day and are now dealing with rookie QB Jared Goff learning on the job. Yes, Goff surprised with 3 TDP last week at New Orleans. But the Rams couldn't score anything in the second half vs. one of NFL's worst defenses, and Bill Belichick has had lots of fun in the past at the expense of rookie QBs. Moreover, Todd Gurley's UCLA-like 3.2 ypc is still not providing much balance for the attack. Would prefer a healthy Gronk to help Tom Brady (nagging knee injury) extend the margin. But would rather wait for Goff to at least get a pointspread W before risking a wager on the Rams.
Dolphins vs. Ravens
Play: Dolphins +3?
The Ravens cashed a ticket last week against the hapless Bengals laying 5 points in a game that came down to the wire when Andy Dalton fumbled the game away, meanwhile the Dolphins beat San Fran for their 6th win a row. It is apparent to me that oddsmakers and sports fans are discounting the job that Adam Gase is doing here in Miami. The Ravens at 6-5 lead their division but their schedule has been weak and they have barely beat lesser teams than Miami.
Miami has a more balanced offensive attack and are running the ball extremely well, taking the heat off their QB and also playing some decent defense. The Ravens have lost to any good team they played this year, beat the Jags by 2 points, beat the Steelers when Big Ben came back to soon and played terrible, and beat the Browns twice. Not a resume that scares me when taking the points, and the KEY in this game, which should be tight, it the hook on the number of 3, which the Ravens are laying 3.5. I think this comes down to the number itself, a 3 point game one way or the other, and having the hook on a fall number is worth taking with a red hot Dolphins team against a beatable opponent on the road.
Remember one thing, you are betting into numbers and not games, and this also may be a strong side in a 2 team 6 point teaser taking the Dolphins to +9.5 and getting through the key numbers of 6 and 7 along the way! The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS with games in December dating back over 2 years, but the tide has changed in Miami and and outright SU win would not surprise me here.
Eagles vs. Bengals
Play: Eagles +1?
The Cincinnati Bengals should not be favored here. They are in a bad place mentally right now after their 14-19 loss at Baltimore last week essentially sealed their fate. They sit at just 3-7-1 on the season and have no shot of making the playoffs. That's especially the case since they are without their two best playmakers on offense in AJ Green and Giovani Bernard due to season-ending injuries. I don't expect them to show up at all Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles still have a shot at making the playoffs. They are 5-6 on the season and just 1.5 games back of the Redskins for the final wild card spot. They will show up this weekend because of it. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. Cincinnati is 2-8-1 ATS in all games this season.
Panthers vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 44
Great quarterbacks can only play like great quarterbacks when they have some semblance of an offensive line to protect them. When these two teams met twice last year, both offensive lines were in good shape.
Russell Wilson and Cam Newton had a running game that balanced their downfield passing attack. Seattle scored 23 and 24 points in those two games, but they lost them both in SU fashion, cashing a pair of Over tickets in the process.
That was then. This is now. The Seahawks offensive line is in complete disarray right now. Three rookies started on that OL last week. They?ll be starting their fifth different combo of offensive linemen this week. Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell, talking about the struggles of his OL:?We are just trying to find the best five guys. If it changes every week, then it changes every week.?
Russell Wilson got sacked six times last week, but it was far worse than that ? Wilson was running for his life, quite literally, on just about every snap. That game marked the THIRD time this year in which the Seahawks offense didn?t reach the end zone even once. Expecting an offensive explosion from the Seahawks this week is an exercise in optimism!
But the Panthers offensive line is in even worse shape than the Seahawks OL! Four of their five starters have been officially ruled ?Out? for Sunday Night?s affair. Michael Oher didn?t make the trip out West. Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski got hurt last week against the Raiders. The Panthers were forced to make a signing from the Cleveland Browns practice squad just to have enough healthy bodies here. I don?t care how you spin it -- you don?t want to be bringing guys in from the Browns practice squad in Week 13 at Seattle!
Ron Rivera knows what?s coming; talking about his offensive line woes: ?It?s about as catastrophe as you can get. I mean, when you look at the losses we?ve had this year. But our coaches will coach up the guys that are available to us.? Against the Seahawks elite stop unit, playing in front of that 12th man crowd, expect Carolina, like Seattle, to struggle to score touchdowns.
Panthers vs. Seahawks
Play: Over 43?
I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair Sunday night. Most have expected defensive battles when these teams have gotten together recently, but that hasn?t been the case at all. In fact, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 48, 50 and 55 points. All three meetings have come since the 2015 playoffs, so they are pretty recent.
They combined for 48 points in that playoff game in 2015. They combined for 50 points in a 27-23 Carolina victory in Seattle last season. And they combined for 55 points in a 31-24 home victory for the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game last year. And both defenses were better in those three games than they are right now.
Injuries have decimated both of these defenses. The Panthers are without Luke Kuechly, their best player, and just gave up 35 points to the Raiders last week in their first game without him. They have one of the worst secondary?s in the NFL as this unit is young and inexperienced and has been torched all season.
The Seahawks have some serious injuries of their own on defense. Both Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas are questionable to play this week after missing last week?s game against the Bucs. Bennett is their best player along the defensive line, while Thomas is one of the most feared safety?s in the NFL.
This Carolina secondary is giving up 67.1% completions, 272 passing yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt this season. Russell Wilson will get right back on track in this one and have a big day through the air. Seattle hasn?t been as strong as normal in the secondary this year, allowing 62.8% completions and 235 yards per game. I think Cam Newton will have some success, too.
The Seahawks have been at their best at home offensively as they are putting up 26.4 points, 364 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Carolina still boasts an elite offense that is scoring 25.1 points per game on the season, including 27.2 points per game on the road this year. But their defense has surrendered 25.0 points per game overall and 31.0 points per game on the road.
Carolina is 15-6 to the OVER in all road games over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 6-0 OVER in road games off a loss over the last three years. Seattle is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 home games after scoring and allowing 14 points or fewer in its previous game. Carolina is 10-1 OVER vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Seattle.
Raiders -3
Oakland continues to defy odds and outperform expectations and I don't see that changing this week.
Buffalo is coming off back-to-back wins, but those victories came against two struggling opponents in the Bengals and Jaguars. Note that the Bills remain just 5-6 ATS on the season.
The Raiders are leading the AFC West and have shown no signs of slowing down. They faced some adversity last week, falling behind against the Panthers entering the fourth quarter but ultimately rallied for another victory. I believe that performance will serve them well moving forward.
Save for an upset win against the Patriots, the Bills have struggled when stepping up in class this season. I simply don't think that they're as good as their 6-5 SU record would indicate.
The Raiders were a seven-point underdog the last time they faced Buffalo in 2014 - a game they won by two points at home. They're favored this time around, but the line is warranted in my opinion.
Redskins vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 48?
This total has dropped from as high as a 50.5 to as low as a 48 as of early Sunday morning and this has opened up great value on the over. Washington has gone over in 9 of their 11 games this season and they come into this game with extra rest. The Redskins have had a few extra days off since the played at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and the Skins had over 500 yards of offense against the Cowboys. Their offense ranks as one of the best in the league this season but the Washington defense continues to be an issue and I am expecting big things from the Cardinals offense today as they return to Arizona after a dismal 19-point effort at Atlanta last week. We are getting some extra line value here because the Cardinals are 6-0 to the under in home games this season but I see that streak coming to an end. The Cards offense will respond against the subpar defense of the Redskins (ranked near bottom of the league) but Arizona's D will not be able to stop Kirk Cousins and Company as they are not only one of the hottest but also one of the overall best-performing offenses in the NFL with 426.7 yards per game. Also, the Cardinals are 5-0 to the over when they are at home and off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points. After giving up 38 at Atlanta last week, look for a shootout with Washington this week.
San Francisco vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
I realize that Matt Barkley is againthe starter here for the Bears, but I do not understand this line move at all. San Francisco as a road favorite? No thanks. I have the 49ers rated 31st in the league in my own power rankings (ahead of only Cleveland). While Chicago is 30th, that's one spot higher and they should be favored.
With Barkley under center, the Bears nearly pulled off an improbable come from behind effort LW here at home vs. Tennessee. They fell behind early in the fourth quarter, 27-7, but two late TD's actually gave them a back door cover and they had a chance to steal the outright win. The final drive stalled inside the Titans' 10 yd line, making it four losses by six pts or less in the last seven weeks, Barkley actually threw for 300+ yards and Chicago outgained Tennessee 411-375. I like their offense's chances this week, going against a Niners' defense that has been putrid, giving up 36.4 PPG on the road.
The Bears' defense is only giving up 19.4 PPG at home, believe it or not. The 49ers, like the Bears, rallied late to make a game of it last week. It ended up being a 31-24 loss for SF at Miami as they remain winless on the road. Chicago almost has a homefield "disadvantage" in that they're 7-22 ATS L29 home games, but that is due to turnaround isn't it? Also, these two teams are a combined 0-6 SU and ATS the L2 seasons when favored, so the line move works AGAINST the Niners.
Pacers at Clippers
Pick: Under
A pair of strong defensive teams clash. Indiana is a long way from home on a 7-3 run under the total, as well as 6-1 under when facing the Pacific division. The Under is 22-7 when the Pacers face a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Clippers are a powerhouse rebounding and defensive team for Doc Rivers, 21-7 under the total at home. And the Under is 34-16-2 in the Clippers last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Tampa Bay / San Diego Over 47.5
Playing the ?over? when the Chargers are at home has been a big money-maker for us, so we?ll go to the well again here today. Not only are the Bolts 4-1 to the over this year on this field, but the games have averaged a whopping 57.6 points per game. What?s more, despite going under the total last week at Houston, San Diego is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games overall. This is also a game that pits two pass defenses that rank in the bottom third of the league in completion percentage and yards per game, so look for both offenses to air it out, which will lead to a longer game and more scoring opportunities.
Bucs at Chargers
Play: Over 47.5
We are getting some line value with this total due to the fact that both teams are coming off of low scoring games last week. Tampa Bay and Seattle played a defensive game with a final score of 14-5. Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL and was able to shut down Tampa Bay. This week Tampa will face a San Diego defense that has given up 30 or more points 6 times this season. Don?t let last week?s 13 point defensive performance by San Diego fool you. The Chargers had 2 weeks to prepare as they were coming off their bye week while Houston was coming off a gut wrenching loss in Mexico. Houston had 6 days to prepare while San Diego had 14. The Chargers are the #3 scoring team in the NFL and will have success going against the 20th ranked defense. When Tampa Bay has the ball they will have success as the Charger defense is ranked 26th out of 32 teams in points allowed. Houston only scored 13 points last week but that was due to 4 TO?s killing drives. Brock Osweiler had another horrible game tossing 3 INT?s. So like I said at the beginning I?m not putting a lot of stock in last week?s low scoring game. Personally I see 53 or more points in this game and with the total at 47.5 this is just too much value to pass up.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -7
The Carolina Panthers go to Seattle to play the Seahawks and they are on their last legs if they are not done all ready for any type of playoff berth in the NFC. We like the Seahawks to cover the spread in this game. Last weeks 35-32 loss to the Raiders was devastating to the Panthers chances of making the playoffs and each game from here on out is a must win. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they are playing a Seattle club that is playing at home and CenturyLink Field is not a place you want to go to if you need a victory. The Seahawks lost to Tampa Bay last week 14-5 and looked terrible on offense. We see Pete Carroll coming up with a way better game plan for Sunday night as they are playing a club they know quite well. Injuries are going to play a big part in this game and the biggest might not even be to middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (concussion) who will probably be a game time decision. Both Carolina Centers have been put on IR as well. This spells disaster when the Carolina offense is facing a Seattle defense that is ranked 1st in points allowed per game and 7th in yards allowed. There is another little thing called revenge that takes place as well on Sunday night. Carolina has beat the Seahawks the last two games, including a 31-24 victory in last years playoffs. There will be nothing better for Seattle as to knock the Panthers out of the playoffs once and for all, especially on Sunday Night with the Nation watching. We believe that is exactly what they will do. The Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games which also backs our selection.
In the Sights, NFL?
A big part of sorting through the 2016 NFL season has been the impact of OL play, and it is a carry-over from making that a key topic when 2015 began ? there are coaches not holding back in discussing how poorly-prepared many lineman are coming from the college ranks these days, the spread offenses not helping to develop them for what is needed at this level. Several teams are simply a mess with their blocking corps right now and that includes both ends of the prime-time matchup this Sunday night, so it will be #354 Seattle/Carolina Under (8:35 Eastern), with plenty of 44.5 available in the Friday morning trading, and value down to 44.
In charting Seattle?s dismal loss at Tampa Bay you could see one of the worst performances from any OL all season, Russell Wilson getting officially sacked six times in 39 drop-backs, but you also have to note his 80 yards on eight attempts, much of that coming from plays in which he avoided a sack and broke the pocket to make something positive happen.
I have quoted Seattle OL coach Tom Cable more than any other when it comes to that issue of there not being enough NFL-ready lineman, and as he tries to develop a young group of players that does not necessarily have all that high of a pedigree anyway there is a lot of patching going on. The newest change will be Bradley Sowell starting at RT instead of Garry Gilliam, now the fifth different starting line in 12 games, and OC Darrell Bevell laid it out this way ? ?We are just trying to find the best five guys. If it changes every week, then it changes every week.?
Yet one might grade the patchwork Seattle group as being the better of the units on the field for this game ? Carolina is down to one player starting where he was on Week #1, LG Andrew Norwell, with Michael Oher not making this road trip, and Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski going down with injuries vs. Oakland. Brought in off the streets this week was Ryan Wendell, who was last on a roster with the Patriots, and they signed Dan France from the Cleveland practice squad. An NFL coach does not sit on Santa?s lap at a shopping mall in early December and ask him to put someone from the Browns practice squad under the Christmas tree.
Here is how Ron Rivera defined it - ?It?s about as catastrophe as you can get. I mean, when you look at the losses we?ve had this year. But our coaches will coach up the guys that are available to us.? And now Rivera has to send that group out in front of one of the NFL?s toughest crowds. The Over/Under for false starts by the Panthers is around 2.5 Over -120.
Teaser-6.5 Points
Seattle Seahawks -0.5 / New Orleans Saints +0.5
Seahawks off a loss and getting healthier on D, taking on a Panthers team that is missing a number of key defenders. Saints at home against the 32nd ranked pass-D is virtually a must play in a ?teaser?.
Houston Texans +6
I have this one -4 GB so there?s value in this number. The Packers are coming off a short-week, Aaron Rodgers picked up a hammy injury, Green Bay has no run-game, and they only rank 12th offensively in the passing game. This is not a ?scary? Green Bay offense from seasons past, and I think Houston?s D could have some success here. As long as Hopkins, Fuller, and Miller can make Osweiler look ?good? somehow, Houston has a strong chance of keeping this one close.
New Orleans Saints -6
What happens when the 32nd ranked pass-D goes to New Orleans to take on a 5th ranked Saints pass-offense? Lots and lots of points scored by the home team of course. The Saints will get theirs here. The question is, will the Lions match them? Detroit does not have a lot of big-play ability. Stafford ranks only 18th with a 6.6 PY/A average. Lions? best deep-threat, Marvin Jones, is playing at less than 100%. And Detroit has no run-game, which does not enable them to force the opposition to bring the safeties in. Basically, Detroit will need to sustain long drives in order to score points, and that?s hard to do on a consistent basis. Saints? big-play ability and home field edge, are enough here for me to like this play at less than a TD.
Arizona Cardinals -2
Washington goes on the road to take on the 4th ranked Arizona defense. The Cardinals are 3rd against the pass, and that?s the biggest factor here as typically Cousins struggles against elite pass-defending units. Arizona is 0-3 in the last 3 on the road, but they are 3-2-1 at home, with the two losses coming against NE and the Rams, early in the year. I expect this team to play much better than they have the last two weeks. The biggest matchup advantage is Arizona?s run-game against Washington?s 32nd ranked run-D. David Johnson should have a field-day in this one. My model has this one at -3.1 ARZ, and in the off-season this line was -6.5 Cards. There?s value at the current number.
New York Giants +6
I have this one at PIT -4.2 so there?s a couple of points of value here. The biggest factor is that Giants rank 7th in pass-D and they?ve been the 4th best team in the league against opposition?s #1 WR. If they can at least slow down Antonio Brown, they should have a strong shot here. At the same time, Pittsburgh?s pass-D is ranked 30th against the opponents? #1 WR. Odell Beckham Jr. should have a big day. Overall, both are fairly similar teams. I expect a close game.
Additional Breakdowns:
DEN @ JAX +3.5
With Semien out, Paxton Lynch will start for the Broncos. The kid is a rookie and starting on the road is never easy. But of course, there?s just not much to go on here. Jags rank 14th in pass-D and have allowed under 20 PPG at home. On the other side, you have one of the worst QB?s in the league (Bortles) going up against the #1 ranked pass-D. Jags will be without Hurns, Ivory, and Julius Thomas, stripping this offense of a number of playmakers. Expect two run-heavy, cautious approaches in this game. The total has really dropped in this one of course, but it?s tough to play. Bortles is extremely susceptible to pick-6?s and both teams feature bottom-5 special teams, which indicates that a long return or two could be very possible. I wouldn?t be surprised to see something ?fluky? happen in this game, which could pretty much be the deciding outcome. By the way, as much as I?d love to grab the Jags as a home favorite of over a FG, going up against a rookie QB, I keep being reminded how awesome this Denver D looked (especially in the first half) last week. With Talib and Wolfe back in the fold, this defense is as filthy as it gets. Bortles truly stands no chance. Lean: JAX +3.5
PHI @ CIN -1.5
The luster has worn off Carson Wentz, as the rookie is impossible to trust on the road. It doesn?t help that Philly is 1-5 ATS on the road. Of course Cincy is 2-8 ATS in all their games this season. They have one of the worst pass-protecting O-lines and that makes this one virtually unplayable for me. Philly has the 6th ranked pas-rush, the #2 ranked pass-D, and Bengals are without AJ Green. Lean: CIN -1.5
SF @ CHI +2.5
Holy cow, 49ers are a road favorite?!? This was my initial though as I was ready to fade them in this one. Then I realized there must be a reason for this line of course. Chicago is missing a ton of talent on defense: Trevathan, Freeman, Floyd, Amos, Hall. In addition, the offense is being led by Matt Barkley, who is awful. Last week he barely completed 50% of his passes for 5.8 PY/A. Of course Bears have Howard and he ?should? dominate against this league-worst San Fran run-D, but everyone knows that?s the obvious game plan. So I expect San Fran to stack the box and force Barkley to make plays. Chances of him doing enough are very small. Chances of me backing a horrific team like San Fran as a road favorite, are even smaller. Lean: CHI +2.5
LAR @ NE -13.5
West Coast team playing on the road in the 1 PM EST time. Rookie QB who looks completely overmatched. Rams? best pass-rusher Quinn is out. Seems like this should be an easy blowout for the Pats. But they will be without Gronk, and their offense becomes a lot less efficient without him. In addition, Brady is nursing a knee injury, and even without Quinn, this Rams? D line is pretty scary. And of course the biggest factor is that I have this one at -11 NE. No way would I recommend playing an over-valued line in this spot. And even though an under-valued double-digit underdog is tempting, I just can?t back Goff in such a difficult spot. Lean: LAR +13.5
MIA @ BAL -3.5
The ?hook? makes this one unplayable for me, as I would be all over the home team if it was a FG or lower. The #1 ranked run-D (and overall) going up against a strong rushing team like Miami, is typically advantageous for a home team. Throw in a mediocre QB like Tannehill, who is missing his top deep threat (Parker), and you have to love this matchup even more. Expecting Tannehill to make adjustments in a hostile road environment is typically futile, and I don?t see him carrying this offense here. Miami has won six in a row, but it gets harder and harder to maintain that kind of effort level week to week. Baltimore?s 30th ranked offense is pure garbage, and that prevents me from laying more than a FG in this one. Lean: BAL -3.5
BUF @ OAK -3
Buffalo?s 2nd ranked run-O will take on Oakland?s 27th ranked run-D. Of course the Raiders have a similar advantage on the other side as well: 5th ranked run-O vs 25th ranked run-D of the Bills. We?ll also see Buffalo?s #1 ranked pass-rush go up against Oakland?s #1 ranked O-line (in terms of pass-protection). My model has this one at OAK -2.5 so this line is properly set. Lean: BUF +3
TB @ SD -3.5
Here?s another game that is tough for me to decipher. At -3, I?m taking the Chargers. At 3.5 it?s a pass. I have this one at -4.5 SD. Both teams are playing well. Both are much better than everyone expected. And I do think we?ll see a close game. I don?t like the fact that Tampa is coming off such huge upsets of KC and SEA, and now must travel cross-country. This could very well be a let-down spot for them. Lean: SD -3.5
CAR @ SEA -7
The Seahawks are over-valued here as I have this one at -4.9 SEA. But the Panthers are without Keuchly, their best LB, without Addison, their best pass-rusher, and without Coleman, their solid starting safety. Seattle, on the other hand, is getting Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett back. Plus it seems they?re still upset about how last season ended between these two teams. Lean: SEA -7
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals 5-year playoff streak will likely come to an abrupt end this year as the Bengals are no doubt not as good as they once were. However, the NFL is an ordinal league and the Bengals are simply a better football team than the Eagles. Dalton has regressed from last year?s career high in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and NYPP. Although based on his 6.7 NYPP he is still an above average passer and is piloting an offense that ranks 10th in the league. Offensively their predictive metrics show that they have produced at a level 4 points lower than their go-forward run rate offensive output as they are -4 in fumble differential and have simply not been able to convert redzone opportunities. The (5-6) Eagles are likely better than many would have predicted, as their early season win total was set at only 6.5 wins. However this team has considerably cooled off as they have been -4 in the turnover differential since their 3-0, +6 turnover differential start. Doug Pederson is running the same Kansas City style offense and Wentz is predictably posting Alex Smith-lite numbers, ranking 28th at 5.9 adjusted Net Yards Per Pass while leading an offense that ranks 25th overall in efficiency and 24th in explosiveness. Defensively, Philadelphia plays an aggressive style which causes some metrics to look better than they are as they hold opponents to low success rates but give up numerous big plays, ranking 3rd worst against the chunk run and 7th worst against the big passes. The advanced stats model sees value on the short home dog, Bengals (+1) is a *1-star Best Bet. Lean to OVER (42).
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
The Dolphins have won 6 games in a row, squeaking by NFL bottom-feeders of the Jets, Rams and Niners. Baltimore sits tied with the Steelers at the top of the AFC North, who they will play on Christmas day, as every game will be critical for the veteran team here on out. The Ravens are a true team of opposite extremes, as they have the third best defense in the NFL and the third worst offense. The advanced stats models leans to Ravens (-3.5) and the UNDER (40.5), though both are below model thresholds.
Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals
Two teams and quarterbacks with arrows going in the opposite directions. While the Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL, allowing only 5.6 NYPP and 4.7 yards per play, the once-explosive Arians? offense has been in the ruts all season long as Carson Palmer seems to be in the twilight of his career, averaging only 5.9 NYPP ranking 23rd in the NFL. Kirk ?You-like-that? Cousins, is having a tremendous season under his franchise-tag, ranking as the #4 ranked passer in the league, with a 68% completion percentage and 20 TDs to only 7 INTs. The advanced stats model sees small value on the team from DC so it is a lean to Washington (+2.5) and OVER (49), both below model thresholds.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Riverboat Ron seems to have used all his luck last year, as seemingly the high-leverage situations and bounces of the oblong ball seem to go against the Panthers this year in stark contrast to last year. The Panthers actually have a positive Game Control rating and a positive yards per play differential, yet have a losing record and sit at the bottom of the high-scoring NFC South at 4-7. The Panthers team is still capable of putting up points with anyone, as the biggest differences offensively from last year have been Cam?s TD rate has been cut in half from last year?s MVP 7.1% of all throws as TDs to now the lowest of his career of 3.8%, a team turnover differential that was +20 last year, currently through 11 games sits at -5. While both of those stats are descriptive of what has occurred so far this season, neither is predictive of what will happen going forward (for reference Tom Brady?s TD percentage the past 10 years has been as high as 8.7% and as low as 4.0% in full 16 game seasons). The Seahawks are the ultimate team of styles this year, as their 7 best defensive performances they have held teams to an average of 13 points, in the other 4 games they have allowed an average 25 points per game with not 1 opponent falling with a score in the typical range of 18-24 (8% chance of happening). The Carolina team averages 51 points per contest and have been able to turn many games into shootouts. The advanced stats model sees value on the road dog and Over, so Panthers (+7) and OVER (44.5) are Strong Opinions.
I am expecting to see a stodgy game in which neither offense gets into a consistent flow, with the struggling OL groups in particular a factor in short yardage settings and near the goal line. That can mean punts instead of first downs, and field goals instead of touchdowns, leaving value for this opportunity.
The New York Knicks are a team I'm watching closely, as they're quietly finding their groove and getting comfortable with their new roster. The Knicks are also playing terrific ball on their home court where they have a ton of confidence. The Kings are still the Kings, which means they find ways to lose games more often than not. I'll take the red hot Knicks at home with the reasonable number.
Chicago will cream poor Jets...Chi at home (where they are 10-1-1-1) coming off a loss. Jets only 1 win last 7 on road, and now on 0 day rest (I know they really poor in that situation, but don't have the stats handy)
Wanderers vs Wanderers
Uruguay Primera | Wanderers vs Wanderers
Football game from Uruguay Primera - Wanderers at home the team is favorite against Villa Espanola.
I like for this game Wanderers to win and the game to end with more than 2.5 goals - Villa Espanola is a team who can conceded more goals in this game and game to end 3:0 4:0.
Wanderers is current 3rd on the table with 7 wins in 13 games and they scored 18 goals and 12 goals conceded.
Villa Espanola is the last placed and rock on the bottom team - one win only with 11:21 goal difference.
Last time when these two played was 2003 year finished 3:2 for Wanderers
Villa Espanola is the new team in elite football - they lost for last two rounds 0:3 and 1:2 against River pLate and Boston River.
Wanderers at last game won 4:2 against Atl Fenix and today my prediction is for more than 2.5 goals.
01:00 PM NFL [354] ATL FALCONS -3-170 (B+2)
01:00 PM NFL [360] NO SAINTS -6.5 -110
04:25 PM NFL [369] TB BUCCANEERS +5.5 -150 (B+2)
02:30 PM SOC [211521] TOTAL o2.5 -138 (Villa Espanola vrs Wanderers) URUGUAY - PRIMERA DIVISION
07:35 PM NBA [506] New York Knicks -2-105
02:00 PM CBB Added Game [529] Canisius +16-110
07:05 PM NHL [10] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 +180
1 unit bet pays 172 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
Play: Houston Texans +6.5
This number jumped virtually as soon as Green Bay disposed of Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers were as low as a 4-point favorite, but climbed to as high as 6 1/2 and even 7, by Tuesday. Once again, Green Bay didn't run well in their win over the Eagles, gaining just 74 yards on 28 carries, but Aaron Rodgers had a big night through the air. Houston's strength is their pass defense, where they rank 5th in the league, allowing just 209.2 yards passing per game. The Packer pass defense can be permissive and let's not forget they allowed 42, 47, 31, & 33 points in their four games before beating Philly. Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota recently combined for 670 yards passing, 7 TDs and no INTs, over a 2-week stretch against the Packers. Brock Osweiler has his troubles passing downfield, there's no denying his weaknesses, but he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the defense he'll face in this one. The Pack have covered just one of their last five when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night appearance. And finally, the Texans have bounced back well off a bad game, currently on a 6-0 ATS run following a game where they scored no more than 14 points, including 3-0 SU & ATS this season.
PITTSBURGH -6? over N.Y. Giants
The New York football Giants have won six games in a row, they?re 8-3 overall and they?re the only team in the NFL to defeat the Dallas Cowboys this year. Why then, is the second hottest team in the league getting a near converted TD against an inconsistent Steelers team? If we can help it, we never ignore what the odds makers are trying to sell us and in this case, they are doing everything they can to sell us the Giants. So, if you were leaning G-Men, now would be the time to do a complete 180? and here?s why: The six-game winning streak was great but all games were by the slimmest of margins and New York could have just as easily lost all six. The Giants defeated Cinci by one-point, Chicago by six, the Rams by seven when they scored just 17 points, the Eagles by five points, the Ravens by four points and finally last week by 14 points against Cleveland but that game never felt comfortable for Giants? backers. That?s a whole slew of terrible offenses that the Giants have played and the result is a bunch of hugely crooked defensive numbers that are not legit. Furthermore, it?s not like Eli Manning and the Giants were lighting up the scoreboard either against those aforementioned weak teams. The Giants do not make up their own schedule but there is a price to pay after playing weak teams. It does not prepare you to play strong teams and that is exactly what the Giants are up against this week. Lastly, the Giants play the Cowboys next week.
Let us now take you back to Week 4 when the Kansas City Chiefs went into Pittsburgh as a 3?-point dog after Pittsburgh was crushed the week before, 34-3 by Philadelphia. The Steelers responded by hammering the Chiefs, 43-14 and we promise you that Kansas City is better than the Giants. Of course, things don?t work that way but the point is that the Steelers are capable of absolutely destroying overrated teams of which the Giants are one. The Steelers are not about to mess around here. Incredibly, Pittsburgh has not won a home game since Week 5 against the Jets. Since then, Pittsburgh has played just two home games and four on the road. Those two home games came against New England and Dallas and against the Patriots, Pittsburgh was without Big Ben. Now the Steelers are healthy and hungry. They were the preseason favorite at many books to win the Super Bowl but injuries and a difficult schedule has taken a bit of a toll. Now it?s the time for the Steelers to thrive and give their loyal fans something to cheer about. Pittsburgh boasts an experienced, accomplished staff with great stability while the Giants newbie staff has not had to deal with a team like the Steelers in early December when the chips are down. This is a mismatch any way you slice it because Pittsburgh wins games with the exact formula the Giants employs to lose them only that divergence has not been revealed this year. It will be here.
ATLANTA -5? over Kansas City
Kansas City is no joke. Since starting 0-5 last season, Andy Reid?s Chiefs have posted a record of 19-3, by far the best in the league. Still, when we do bet them, we are almost always screaming at the TV because they always seem to do it the hard way and get big breaks at the most opportune times. Last week, the Chiefs mounted a successful comeback to throw the game into overtime and then kicked the winning field goal that the Broncos were unable to get on the previous series. A second road game is tough after a full five quarter game the previous week against one of their most hated rivals. The Chiefs also have to resist the urge to look past this to next week?s showdown with the Raiders. Alex Smith somehow pulls rabbits out of his hat too. Here?s a guy that was sacked six times last week. Here?s a guy that is being asked to throw four yards or less on just about every attempt. Only when the Chiefs are desperate for a late TD to tie or win it will Reid open up the playbook. How this team has won 19 of 22 games is a mystery but perhaps it speaks to all the weak or beatable teams in this league. Or perhaps it speaks to just how fortunate these Chiefs have been. Perhaps the Chiefs are a joke.
Let?s not forget that Kansas City had a chance to keep their spot at the top of the division with a home win against 4-5 Tampa Bay two weeks ago in a game that most thought would be a comfortable one. Instead, the Bucs rolled up 442 yards of offense, converted 11 of 16 third down plays and dominated the Chiefs for most of the game in a 19-17 win. The week before that, the Chiefs looked they were going to get blown out in Carolina but another late fourth quarter rally and some poor ball handling skills by the Panthers allowed them to pull another rabbit out of their hat. The week before that, the Chiefs were once again dominated on the stat sheet in Jacksonville but pulled out another miracle win in a game they had no business winning whatsoever.
Matt Ryan continues his career best season. He's already totaled 26 touchdowns with five games over 300 yards. He's been at his best at home too. The Falcons played a solid game in a blowout win over the Cardinals last week. That victory keeps them one game ahead of the Buccaneers and in the running for the #2 seed in the NFC thanks to the Seahawks' loss. Situationally speaking, the Falcons and their high octane offense are in such a better spot here. Last week was not draining. Next week, the Dirty Birds are in Los Angeles. They control their own fate and figure to be ready and focused here. By contrast, the Chiefs won an emotional and hard fought overtime game that went the distance last week in prime time and they have the Raiders up next. This week?s game is against an NFC opponent on the road and after getting torched on the stat sheet against both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay very recently, the Chiefs are not likely going to be able to trade punches with the Falcons. There will be no rabbits this week for the Chiefs to pull out.
Washington +115 over ARIZONA
It's Week 13 and you can throw preseason hype right out the window. We've seen enough from the Cardinals to know it's over. Bruce Arians should be on the hot seat, as he seems to get dumber with each passing week and he?s coaching an incredibly undisciplined bunch. The Cardinals took eight penalties for 60 yards in a 38-19 blowout loss in Atlanta last week. These Cardinals don't even look like they practice. Larry Fitzgerald is the only receiver that knows what route he's running. Carson Palmer is finished. Instead of talking playoffs, the Cards should be scouting this year's NCAA quarterback class. Arizona?s pedigree over the years is one of a structurally sound group that is difficult to play against but that is no longer the case. They are now soft and extremely beatable with no appeal whatsoever.
The Redskins are quietly having a nice season that's been overshadowed by the 10-1 Cowboys. Add the fact the 'Boys took a stranglehold on the NFC East with their 31-26 win over Washington on Thanksgiving and it's easy to overlook the 'Skins. We will not. Kirk Cousins backed up his bold public contract demands with another great game. We often see appeal in these road dogs getting +2? points because odds makers are enticing bettors to side with the home team. Many bettors want that extra half point on the dog and instead of hanging it up there, the odds makers make the favorite more enticing by making a FG victory a winning bet. The total in this game is 49?, which is a pretty fat number. Who do you trust to put up those points? Washington has deep threats with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Jamison Crowder has been one of the more reliable receivers in the league this season. Tight end Jordan Reed is nearly impossible to cover. The Redskins hung with the best team in the NFC and had their chances to win that game in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Washington gets better every single week while the Cardinals look to be on the verge of quitting if they haven?t already. How the Cardinals can be the favorite against a legit playoff contender is mystifying. Carson Palmer is down at the bottom of the QB Passer Ratings while the Redskin's defense is thriving and so is the offense. ?Skins outright.
BALTIMORE -3? over Miami
After a six game winning streak, ESPN said, ?The Dolphins have the look of a legitimate playoff team.? It's been a nice run and story but we're here to pump the breaks on Miami's post season aspirations. We cannot ignore the last two weeks where the Dolphins barely escaped with victories against San Francisco and Los Angeles. Last week it took a game saving tackle from Kiko Alonso on 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who was stopped just short of forcing overtime. Two weeks ago, Miami looked dead in the water in L.A. but somehow pulled out a miracle win with 14 points late in the fourth quarter. Five of the Dolphins six wins during this span have come by one score or less. It's a fine line to toe especially with the league?s 30th ranked run defense. The Dolphins are a middle of the pack team when it comes to points allowed per game. It's like they've won six coin flips in a row. After breaking out with back to back 200 yard games, running back Jay Ajayi has struggled the last three weeks by failing to reach the 100 yard mark each time. Last week against the 49ers, Ajayi could only muster 45 yards on 18 carries. He's trending in the wrong direction and doesn?t figure to get back on track when facing the NFL?s top run defense here. Ryan Tannehill is just about due for another one of those games that he has several of each year in which he looks like the worst QB ever.
The Ravens have won three of their last four. Their only loss over that span was against the 10-1 Cowboys in Dallas. Baltimore is in the clutter of teams contending for a Wild Card playoff spot but they also control their own destiny in the AFC North. On the surface, the Ravens have been great this season with the number one ranked run defense, allowing just 76 yards a game. Under the hood, the Ravens have the number one Weighted Defense in the league, a stat that is adjusted as the season goes on, making the games played earlier in the year less important. It?s a good way to measure a team's current form and/or progress. Offensively, the Ravens are still capable of making the big play and they should be able to establish a run game against a weak Miami run defense. This line opened at -3? for the Ravens, which is a number we love to see when playing favorites. That "hook" on a key number like "3" is an added enticement by the odd makers to take the points. We will not be fooled, as the Ravens are built to win in November while the Dolphins are likely to freeze, just like they did the past two weeks but got away with it. They won?t get away with it here.
Buffalo +3 over OAKLAND
The Raiders are one of the NFL?s biggest headlines in 2016. The Raiders sit at 9-2 while owning one of the best records in the league and an AFC-leading mark that they currently share with the New England Patriots. The Raiders are in position to do big things. This is a squad that is currently contending for home field advantage and a first-round bye in the AFC leg of the playoffs after missing the post-season last year with an 8-8 mark. The Raiders seem to get better each and every week. They have now won five in a row while knocking off both participants in last year?s Super Bowl along the way. After defeating the Panthers last week behind a very impressive first half, the Raiders hype has hit new heights. They have moved up to #2 on many publications power rankings. The odds on them to win the Super Bowl dropped dramatically. Every sports show on both radio and television is talking the Oakland Raiders this week. Why then are the Raiders such a small favorite against the Bills? If the Bills were visiting the exact same 9-2 New England Patriots this week (a much shorter trip against a familiar foe), the line would not be -3. It would be twice that and maybe even -7. So, before you pull the trigger on the Raiders, think about that for a second. One of the criteria?s for successful wagering is to recognize trouble spots or trap games and this is a prime example of that.
In many markets, if the game is considered a toss-up on a neutral site, the home team will give three points to the intruder by default and that is what looks to be the situation here. So why is Oakland, a team with a better record and a clear hot hand, considered a toss-up anywhere else against a team like Buffalo? Very simple, Oakland is not as good as their record suggests. The Raiders own one of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL in every major category. The Black and Silver are among the worst in Total Defense and Passing Defense and while that may bear little significance to a maligned offense like Buffalo?s, we can?t help but ponder if the Raiders will offer any concessions to this visitor. Oakland?s suspect defense has put the Raiders in predicaments where they could have lost many more games than the record they currently sport implies. Five of Oakland?s nine victories this year were by margins of four points or less. Eight of Oakland?s wins were by a touchdown or less and one of these triumphs required overtime. It seems that the Raiders have been the benefactors of good fortune and it is only a matter of time until when that good fortune runs out. The odds makers did not make a mistake in setting this line. They?re betting that Oakland is in big trouble this week and we?re going to pay attention to that big time.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Play: Atlanta Falcons -5
The Chiefs are coming off a come-from-behind upset win over the Broncos in Denver, 30-27 in overtime. Kansas City is in a very difficult spot here. Coming off that huge divisional win, the Chiefs have an even bigger game on deck against the Raiders for the AFC West lead. Ask Dallas how difficult these "division sandwich spots" are, as they barely escaped Minnesota with a win in the same scenario on Thursday night.
The Chiefs have been winning in spite of themselves. They were outgained by a whopping 191 yards in Denver. The week prior, they lost at home to Tampa Bay as a TD favorite. KC was outgained by 85 yards and had to rally from 17 points back to win in Carolina the week before that. And they were outgained by a massive 218 yards when they escaped with a 19-14 home win over lowly Jacksonville before that.
The Falcons are off a big 38-19 win over the Cardinals. Atlanta is playing very well, especially offensively. Atlanta's weakness is pass defense, but the Chiefs lack the vertical passing attack to take advantage. The Falcons have a well-balanced, explosive offense that is tough to defend for teams like the Chiefs who are not familiar with them.
The Chiefs just seem to keep finding ways to win under head coach Andy Reid. KC is 19-4 SU in their last 23 games dating back to last season. The oddsmakers know that, yet they opened the Chiefs as 'dogs of more than a FG. Looks to me like they're trying to get bettors to grab KC. I'm not biting.
I expect Kansas City, off a big division win with a bigger division game on deck, to come out a little flat here. I
Broncos at Jaguars
Pick: Under 40
Many pundits in August were touting this as the year of the Jaguars and projected this team into the playoffs. They are in the weakest division in the NFL and will carry a woeful 2-9 record into this contest. So what has gone wrong? The first place to look, and an area the Jags thought they had covered is at QB. Blake Bortles has now started 41 games and is 10-31, averaging just 19.8 points per game. That drops to 16.4 points per game vs. an above average defense, where his passer rating is an ugly 70.1. He has thrown 13 INTs on the season. The Jags defense has been very good allowing just 5.2 yards a play vs. teams that generate 5.7. Denver has offensive issues of their own, and now Trevor Siemian is out with a foot injury. They will have to rely on one of the best defenses in the NFL to do so. So in a nutshell, we have a Denver offense, with a back up quarterback, and a Jacksonville offense that struggles vs. even a pedestrian defense, but going against an elite one here.
Bucs +4
The big success in the Bucs recent 3 game winning streak has been fueled by the defense...They have allowed a total of 32 points in those 3 winning contests...They beat some decent teams and they really took it to the Seahawks last week....This Tampa team in most of our minds would be right about at this record right now...I had them slightly above and finishing the season 9-7 fwiw...This is almost a must win game for them or the season could be lost...The Chargers on the other hand hold a slim HFA and the season for them is lost at this point...Chargers sit 5-6 and would need to reel off a few game winning streak..I just don't see that happening...Tampa has been running and passing much better which keeps them in the game...One part or another for the Chargers seems to fall off in every game and I expect that again..I still think the Bucs finish with a winning record, but winning this game won't be easy...I made my line for this game SD -1.5...So grabbing this over the key number of 3 is a no brainer for me today...I can see a 1-3pt game here...I feel the Bucs passing game will make some big plays and the Tampa defense keeps true to it's recent form.
Patriots -13
Though the Patriots have looked a bit flat since their bye week (just 1-2 vs.line last three), that's relative in comparison to the plight of the Rams, who have won just once since Columbus Day and are now dealing with rookie QB Jared Goff learning on the job. Yes, Goff surprised with 3 TDP last week at New Orleans. But the Rams couldn't score anything in the second half vs. one of NFL's worst defenses, and Bill Belichick has had lots of fun in the past at the expense of rookie QBs. Moreover, Todd Gurley's UCLA-like 3.2 ypc is still not providing much balance for the attack. Would prefer a healthy Gronk to help Tom Brady (nagging knee injury) extend the margin. But would rather wait for Goff to at least get a pointspread W before risking a wager on the Rams.
Dolphins vs. Ravens
Play: Dolphins +3?
The Ravens cashed a ticket last week against the hapless Bengals laying 5 points in a game that came down to the wire when Andy Dalton fumbled the game away, meanwhile the Dolphins beat San Fran for their 6th win a row. It is apparent to me that oddsmakers and sports fans are discounting the job that Adam Gase is doing here in Miami. The Ravens at 6-5 lead their division but their schedule has been weak and they have barely beat lesser teams than Miami.
Miami has a more balanced offensive attack and are running the ball extremely well, taking the heat off their QB and also playing some decent defense. The Ravens have lost to any good team they played this year, beat the Jags by 2 points, beat the Steelers when Big Ben came back to soon and played terrible, and beat the Browns twice. Not a resume that scares me when taking the points, and the KEY in this game, which should be tight, it the hook on the number of 3, which the Ravens are laying 3.5. I think this comes down to the number itself, a 3 point game one way or the other, and having the hook on a fall number is worth taking with a red hot Dolphins team against a beatable opponent on the road.
Remember one thing, you are betting into numbers and not games, and this also may be a strong side in a 2 team 6 point teaser taking the Dolphins to +9.5 and getting through the key numbers of 6 and 7 along the way! The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS with games in December dating back over 2 years, but the tide has changed in Miami and and outright SU win would not surprise me here.
Eagles vs. Bengals
Play: Eagles +1?
The Cincinnati Bengals should not be favored here. They are in a bad place mentally right now after their 14-19 loss at Baltimore last week essentially sealed their fate. They sit at just 3-7-1 on the season and have no shot of making the playoffs. That's especially the case since they are without their two best playmakers on offense in AJ Green and Giovani Bernard due to season-ending injuries. I don't expect them to show up at all Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles still have a shot at making the playoffs. They are 5-6 on the season and just 1.5 games back of the Redskins for the final wild card spot. They will show up this weekend because of it. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. Cincinnati is 2-8-1 ATS in all games this season.
Panthers vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 44
Great quarterbacks can only play like great quarterbacks when they have some semblance of an offensive line to protect them. When these two teams met twice last year, both offensive lines were in good shape.
Russell Wilson and Cam Newton had a running game that balanced their downfield passing attack. Seattle scored 23 and 24 points in those two games, but they lost them both in SU fashion, cashing a pair of Over tickets in the process.
That was then. This is now. The Seahawks offensive line is in complete disarray right now. Three rookies started on that OL last week. They?ll be starting their fifth different combo of offensive linemen this week. Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell, talking about the struggles of his OL:?We are just trying to find the best five guys. If it changes every week, then it changes every week.?
Russell Wilson got sacked six times last week, but it was far worse than that ? Wilson was running for his life, quite literally, on just about every snap. That game marked the THIRD time this year in which the Seahawks offense didn?t reach the end zone even once. Expecting an offensive explosion from the Seahawks this week is an exercise in optimism!
But the Panthers offensive line is in even worse shape than the Seahawks OL! Four of their five starters have been officially ruled ?Out? for Sunday Night?s affair. Michael Oher didn?t make the trip out West. Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski got hurt last week against the Raiders. The Panthers were forced to make a signing from the Cleveland Browns practice squad just to have enough healthy bodies here. I don?t care how you spin it -- you don?t want to be bringing guys in from the Browns practice squad in Week 13 at Seattle!
Ron Rivera knows what?s coming; talking about his offensive line woes: ?It?s about as catastrophe as you can get. I mean, when you look at the losses we?ve had this year. But our coaches will coach up the guys that are available to us.? Against the Seahawks elite stop unit, playing in front of that 12th man crowd, expect Carolina, like Seattle, to struggle to score touchdowns.
Panthers vs. Seahawks
Play: Over 43?
I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair Sunday night. Most have expected defensive battles when these teams have gotten together recently, but that hasn?t been the case at all. In fact, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 48, 50 and 55 points. All three meetings have come since the 2015 playoffs, so they are pretty recent.
They combined for 48 points in that playoff game in 2015. They combined for 50 points in a 27-23 Carolina victory in Seattle last season. And they combined for 55 points in a 31-24 home victory for the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game last year. And both defenses were better in those three games than they are right now.
Injuries have decimated both of these defenses. The Panthers are without Luke Kuechly, their best player, and just gave up 35 points to the Raiders last week in their first game without him. They have one of the worst secondary?s in the NFL as this unit is young and inexperienced and has been torched all season.
The Seahawks have some serious injuries of their own on defense. Both Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas are questionable to play this week after missing last week?s game against the Bucs. Bennett is their best player along the defensive line, while Thomas is one of the most feared safety?s in the NFL.
This Carolina secondary is giving up 67.1% completions, 272 passing yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt this season. Russell Wilson will get right back on track in this one and have a big day through the air. Seattle hasn?t been as strong as normal in the secondary this year, allowing 62.8% completions and 235 yards per game. I think Cam Newton will have some success, too.
The Seahawks have been at their best at home offensively as they are putting up 26.4 points, 364 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Carolina still boasts an elite offense that is scoring 25.1 points per game on the season, including 27.2 points per game on the road this year. But their defense has surrendered 25.0 points per game overall and 31.0 points per game on the road.
Carolina is 15-6 to the OVER in all road games over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 6-0 OVER in road games off a loss over the last three years. Seattle is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 home games after scoring and allowing 14 points or fewer in its previous game. Carolina is 10-1 OVER vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Seattle.
Raiders -3
Oakland continues to defy odds and outperform expectations and I don't see that changing this week.
Buffalo is coming off back-to-back wins, but those victories came against two struggling opponents in the Bengals and Jaguars. Note that the Bills remain just 5-6 ATS on the season.
The Raiders are leading the AFC West and have shown no signs of slowing down. They faced some adversity last week, falling behind against the Panthers entering the fourth quarter but ultimately rallied for another victory. I believe that performance will serve them well moving forward.
Save for an upset win against the Patriots, the Bills have struggled when stepping up in class this season. I simply don't think that they're as good as their 6-5 SU record would indicate.
The Raiders were a seven-point underdog the last time they faced Buffalo in 2014 - a game they won by two points at home. They're favored this time around, but the line is warranted in my opinion.
Redskins vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 48?
This total has dropped from as high as a 50.5 to as low as a 48 as of early Sunday morning and this has opened up great value on the over. Washington has gone over in 9 of their 11 games this season and they come into this game with extra rest. The Redskins have had a few extra days off since the played at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and the Skins had over 500 yards of offense against the Cowboys. Their offense ranks as one of the best in the league this season but the Washington defense continues to be an issue and I am expecting big things from the Cardinals offense today as they return to Arizona after a dismal 19-point effort at Atlanta last week. We are getting some extra line value here because the Cardinals are 6-0 to the under in home games this season but I see that streak coming to an end. The Cards offense will respond against the subpar defense of the Redskins (ranked near bottom of the league) but Arizona's D will not be able to stop Kirk Cousins and Company as they are not only one of the hottest but also one of the overall best-performing offenses in the NFL with 426.7 yards per game. Also, the Cardinals are 5-0 to the over when they are at home and off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points. After giving up 38 at Atlanta last week, look for a shootout with Washington this week.
San Francisco vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
I realize that Matt Barkley is againthe starter here for the Bears, but I do not understand this line move at all. San Francisco as a road favorite? No thanks. I have the 49ers rated 31st in the league in my own power rankings (ahead of only Cleveland). While Chicago is 30th, that's one spot higher and they should be favored.
With Barkley under center, the Bears nearly pulled off an improbable come from behind effort LW here at home vs. Tennessee. They fell behind early in the fourth quarter, 27-7, but two late TD's actually gave them a back door cover and they had a chance to steal the outright win. The final drive stalled inside the Titans' 10 yd line, making it four losses by six pts or less in the last seven weeks, Barkley actually threw for 300+ yards and Chicago outgained Tennessee 411-375. I like their offense's chances this week, going against a Niners' defense that has been putrid, giving up 36.4 PPG on the road.
The Bears' defense is only giving up 19.4 PPG at home, believe it or not. The 49ers, like the Bears, rallied late to make a game of it last week. It ended up being a 31-24 loss for SF at Miami as they remain winless on the road. Chicago almost has a homefield "disadvantage" in that they're 7-22 ATS L29 home games, but that is due to turnaround isn't it? Also, these two teams are a combined 0-6 SU and ATS the L2 seasons when favored, so the line move works AGAINST the Niners.
Pacers at Clippers
Pick: Under
A pair of strong defensive teams clash. Indiana is a long way from home on a 7-3 run under the total, as well as 6-1 under when facing the Pacific division. The Under is 22-7 when the Pacers face a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Clippers are a powerhouse rebounding and defensive team for Doc Rivers, 21-7 under the total at home. And the Under is 34-16-2 in the Clippers last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Tampa Bay / San Diego Over 47.5
Playing the ?over? when the Chargers are at home has been a big money-maker for us, so we?ll go to the well again here today. Not only are the Bolts 4-1 to the over this year on this field, but the games have averaged a whopping 57.6 points per game. What?s more, despite going under the total last week at Houston, San Diego is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games overall. This is also a game that pits two pass defenses that rank in the bottom third of the league in completion percentage and yards per game, so look for both offenses to air it out, which will lead to a longer game and more scoring opportunities.
Bucs at Chargers
Play: Over 47.5
We are getting some line value with this total due to the fact that both teams are coming off of low scoring games last week. Tampa Bay and Seattle played a defensive game with a final score of 14-5. Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL and was able to shut down Tampa Bay. This week Tampa will face a San Diego defense that has given up 30 or more points 6 times this season. Don?t let last week?s 13 point defensive performance by San Diego fool you. The Chargers had 2 weeks to prepare as they were coming off their bye week while Houston was coming off a gut wrenching loss in Mexico. Houston had 6 days to prepare while San Diego had 14. The Chargers are the #3 scoring team in the NFL and will have success going against the 20th ranked defense. When Tampa Bay has the ball they will have success as the Charger defense is ranked 26th out of 32 teams in points allowed. Houston only scored 13 points last week but that was due to 4 TO?s killing drives. Brock Osweiler had another horrible game tossing 3 INT?s. So like I said at the beginning I?m not putting a lot of stock in last week?s low scoring game. Personally I see 53 or more points in this game and with the total at 47.5 this is just too much value to pass up.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -7
The Carolina Panthers go to Seattle to play the Seahawks and they are on their last legs if they are not done all ready for any type of playoff berth in the NFC. We like the Seahawks to cover the spread in this game. Last weeks 35-32 loss to the Raiders was devastating to the Panthers chances of making the playoffs and each game from here on out is a must win. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they are playing a Seattle club that is playing at home and CenturyLink Field is not a place you want to go to if you need a victory. The Seahawks lost to Tampa Bay last week 14-5 and looked terrible on offense. We see Pete Carroll coming up with a way better game plan for Sunday night as they are playing a club they know quite well. Injuries are going to play a big part in this game and the biggest might not even be to middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (concussion) who will probably be a game time decision. Both Carolina Centers have been put on IR as well. This spells disaster when the Carolina offense is facing a Seattle defense that is ranked 1st in points allowed per game and 7th in yards allowed. There is another little thing called revenge that takes place as well on Sunday night. Carolina has beat the Seahawks the last two games, including a 31-24 victory in last years playoffs. There will be nothing better for Seattle as to knock the Panthers out of the playoffs once and for all, especially on Sunday Night with the Nation watching. We believe that is exactly what they will do. The Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games which also backs our selection.
In the Sights, NFL?
A big part of sorting through the 2016 NFL season has been the impact of OL play, and it is a carry-over from making that a key topic when 2015 began ? there are coaches not holding back in discussing how poorly-prepared many lineman are coming from the college ranks these days, the spread offenses not helping to develop them for what is needed at this level. Several teams are simply a mess with their blocking corps right now and that includes both ends of the prime-time matchup this Sunday night, so it will be #354 Seattle/Carolina Under (8:35 Eastern), with plenty of 44.5 available in the Friday morning trading, and value down to 44.
In charting Seattle?s dismal loss at Tampa Bay you could see one of the worst performances from any OL all season, Russell Wilson getting officially sacked six times in 39 drop-backs, but you also have to note his 80 yards on eight attempts, much of that coming from plays in which he avoided a sack and broke the pocket to make something positive happen.
I have quoted Seattle OL coach Tom Cable more than any other when it comes to that issue of there not being enough NFL-ready lineman, and as he tries to develop a young group of players that does not necessarily have all that high of a pedigree anyway there is a lot of patching going on. The newest change will be Bradley Sowell starting at RT instead of Garry Gilliam, now the fifth different starting line in 12 games, and OC Darrell Bevell laid it out this way ? ?We are just trying to find the best five guys. If it changes every week, then it changes every week.?
Yet one might grade the patchwork Seattle group as being the better of the units on the field for this game ? Carolina is down to one player starting where he was on Week #1, LG Andrew Norwell, with Michael Oher not making this road trip, and Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski going down with injuries vs. Oakland. Brought in off the streets this week was Ryan Wendell, who was last on a roster with the Patriots, and they signed Dan France from the Cleveland practice squad. An NFL coach does not sit on Santa?s lap at a shopping mall in early December and ask him to put someone from the Browns practice squad under the Christmas tree.
Here is how Ron Rivera defined it - ?It?s about as catastrophe as you can get. I mean, when you look at the losses we?ve had this year. But our coaches will coach up the guys that are available to us.? And now Rivera has to send that group out in front of one of the NFL?s toughest crowds. The Over/Under for false starts by the Panthers is around 2.5 Over -120.
Teaser-6.5 Points
Seattle Seahawks -0.5 / New Orleans Saints +0.5
Seahawks off a loss and getting healthier on D, taking on a Panthers team that is missing a number of key defenders. Saints at home against the 32nd ranked pass-D is virtually a must play in a ?teaser?.
Houston Texans +6
I have this one -4 GB so there?s value in this number. The Packers are coming off a short-week, Aaron Rodgers picked up a hammy injury, Green Bay has no run-game, and they only rank 12th offensively in the passing game. This is not a ?scary? Green Bay offense from seasons past, and I think Houston?s D could have some success here. As long as Hopkins, Fuller, and Miller can make Osweiler look ?good? somehow, Houston has a strong chance of keeping this one close.
New Orleans Saints -6
What happens when the 32nd ranked pass-D goes to New Orleans to take on a 5th ranked Saints pass-offense? Lots and lots of points scored by the home team of course. The Saints will get theirs here. The question is, will the Lions match them? Detroit does not have a lot of big-play ability. Stafford ranks only 18th with a 6.6 PY/A average. Lions? best deep-threat, Marvin Jones, is playing at less than 100%. And Detroit has no run-game, which does not enable them to force the opposition to bring the safeties in. Basically, Detroit will need to sustain long drives in order to score points, and that?s hard to do on a consistent basis. Saints? big-play ability and home field edge, are enough here for me to like this play at less than a TD.
Arizona Cardinals -2
Washington goes on the road to take on the 4th ranked Arizona defense. The Cardinals are 3rd against the pass, and that?s the biggest factor here as typically Cousins struggles against elite pass-defending units. Arizona is 0-3 in the last 3 on the road, but they are 3-2-1 at home, with the two losses coming against NE and the Rams, early in the year. I expect this team to play much better than they have the last two weeks. The biggest matchup advantage is Arizona?s run-game against Washington?s 32nd ranked run-D. David Johnson should have a field-day in this one. My model has this one at -3.1 ARZ, and in the off-season this line was -6.5 Cards. There?s value at the current number.
New York Giants +6
I have this one at PIT -4.2 so there?s a couple of points of value here. The biggest factor is that Giants rank 7th in pass-D and they?ve been the 4th best team in the league against opposition?s #1 WR. If they can at least slow down Antonio Brown, they should have a strong shot here. At the same time, Pittsburgh?s pass-D is ranked 30th against the opponents? #1 WR. Odell Beckham Jr. should have a big day. Overall, both are fairly similar teams. I expect a close game.
Additional Breakdowns:
DEN @ JAX +3.5
With Semien out, Paxton Lynch will start for the Broncos. The kid is a rookie and starting on the road is never easy. But of course, there?s just not much to go on here. Jags rank 14th in pass-D and have allowed under 20 PPG at home. On the other side, you have one of the worst QB?s in the league (Bortles) going up against the #1 ranked pass-D. Jags will be without Hurns, Ivory, and Julius Thomas, stripping this offense of a number of playmakers. Expect two run-heavy, cautious approaches in this game. The total has really dropped in this one of course, but it?s tough to play. Bortles is extremely susceptible to pick-6?s and both teams feature bottom-5 special teams, which indicates that a long return or two could be very possible. I wouldn?t be surprised to see something ?fluky? happen in this game, which could pretty much be the deciding outcome. By the way, as much as I?d love to grab the Jags as a home favorite of over a FG, going up against a rookie QB, I keep being reminded how awesome this Denver D looked (especially in the first half) last week. With Talib and Wolfe back in the fold, this defense is as filthy as it gets. Bortles truly stands no chance. Lean: JAX +3.5
PHI @ CIN -1.5
The luster has worn off Carson Wentz, as the rookie is impossible to trust on the road. It doesn?t help that Philly is 1-5 ATS on the road. Of course Cincy is 2-8 ATS in all their games this season. They have one of the worst pass-protecting O-lines and that makes this one virtually unplayable for me. Philly has the 6th ranked pas-rush, the #2 ranked pass-D, and Bengals are without AJ Green. Lean: CIN -1.5
SF @ CHI +2.5
Holy cow, 49ers are a road favorite?!? This was my initial though as I was ready to fade them in this one. Then I realized there must be a reason for this line of course. Chicago is missing a ton of talent on defense: Trevathan, Freeman, Floyd, Amos, Hall. In addition, the offense is being led by Matt Barkley, who is awful. Last week he barely completed 50% of his passes for 5.8 PY/A. Of course Bears have Howard and he ?should? dominate against this league-worst San Fran run-D, but everyone knows that?s the obvious game plan. So I expect San Fran to stack the box and force Barkley to make plays. Chances of him doing enough are very small. Chances of me backing a horrific team like San Fran as a road favorite, are even smaller. Lean: CHI +2.5
LAR @ NE -13.5
West Coast team playing on the road in the 1 PM EST time. Rookie QB who looks completely overmatched. Rams? best pass-rusher Quinn is out. Seems like this should be an easy blowout for the Pats. But they will be without Gronk, and their offense becomes a lot less efficient without him. In addition, Brady is nursing a knee injury, and even without Quinn, this Rams? D line is pretty scary. And of course the biggest factor is that I have this one at -11 NE. No way would I recommend playing an over-valued line in this spot. And even though an under-valued double-digit underdog is tempting, I just can?t back Goff in such a difficult spot. Lean: LAR +13.5
MIA @ BAL -3.5
The ?hook? makes this one unplayable for me, as I would be all over the home team if it was a FG or lower. The #1 ranked run-D (and overall) going up against a strong rushing team like Miami, is typically advantageous for a home team. Throw in a mediocre QB like Tannehill, who is missing his top deep threat (Parker), and you have to love this matchup even more. Expecting Tannehill to make adjustments in a hostile road environment is typically futile, and I don?t see him carrying this offense here. Miami has won six in a row, but it gets harder and harder to maintain that kind of effort level week to week. Baltimore?s 30th ranked offense is pure garbage, and that prevents me from laying more than a FG in this one. Lean: BAL -3.5
BUF @ OAK -3
Buffalo?s 2nd ranked run-O will take on Oakland?s 27th ranked run-D. Of course the Raiders have a similar advantage on the other side as well: 5th ranked run-O vs 25th ranked run-D of the Bills. We?ll also see Buffalo?s #1 ranked pass-rush go up against Oakland?s #1 ranked O-line (in terms of pass-protection). My model has this one at OAK -2.5 so this line is properly set. Lean: BUF +3
TB @ SD -3.5
Here?s another game that is tough for me to decipher. At -3, I?m taking the Chargers. At 3.5 it?s a pass. I have this one at -4.5 SD. Both teams are playing well. Both are much better than everyone expected. And I do think we?ll see a close game. I don?t like the fact that Tampa is coming off such huge upsets of KC and SEA, and now must travel cross-country. This could very well be a let-down spot for them. Lean: SD -3.5
CAR @ SEA -7
The Seahawks are over-valued here as I have this one at -4.9 SEA. But the Panthers are without Keuchly, their best LB, without Addison, their best pass-rusher, and without Coleman, their solid starting safety. Seattle, on the other hand, is getting Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett back. Plus it seems they?re still upset about how last season ended between these two teams. Lean: SEA -7
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals 5-year playoff streak will likely come to an abrupt end this year as the Bengals are no doubt not as good as they once were. However, the NFL is an ordinal league and the Bengals are simply a better football team than the Eagles. Dalton has regressed from last year?s career high in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and NYPP. Although based on his 6.7 NYPP he is still an above average passer and is piloting an offense that ranks 10th in the league. Offensively their predictive metrics show that they have produced at a level 4 points lower than their go-forward run rate offensive output as they are -4 in fumble differential and have simply not been able to convert redzone opportunities. The (5-6) Eagles are likely better than many would have predicted, as their early season win total was set at only 6.5 wins. However this team has considerably cooled off as they have been -4 in the turnover differential since their 3-0, +6 turnover differential start. Doug Pederson is running the same Kansas City style offense and Wentz is predictably posting Alex Smith-lite numbers, ranking 28th at 5.9 adjusted Net Yards Per Pass while leading an offense that ranks 25th overall in efficiency and 24th in explosiveness. Defensively, Philadelphia plays an aggressive style which causes some metrics to look better than they are as they hold opponents to low success rates but give up numerous big plays, ranking 3rd worst against the chunk run and 7th worst against the big passes. The advanced stats model sees value on the short home dog, Bengals (+1) is a *1-star Best Bet. Lean to OVER (42).
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
The Dolphins have won 6 games in a row, squeaking by NFL bottom-feeders of the Jets, Rams and Niners. Baltimore sits tied with the Steelers at the top of the AFC North, who they will play on Christmas day, as every game will be critical for the veteran team here on out. The Ravens are a true team of opposite extremes, as they have the third best defense in the NFL and the third worst offense. The advanced stats models leans to Ravens (-3.5) and the UNDER (40.5), though both are below model thresholds.
Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals
Two teams and quarterbacks with arrows going in the opposite directions. While the Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL, allowing only 5.6 NYPP and 4.7 yards per play, the once-explosive Arians? offense has been in the ruts all season long as Carson Palmer seems to be in the twilight of his career, averaging only 5.9 NYPP ranking 23rd in the NFL. Kirk ?You-like-that? Cousins, is having a tremendous season under his franchise-tag, ranking as the #4 ranked passer in the league, with a 68% completion percentage and 20 TDs to only 7 INTs. The advanced stats model sees small value on the team from DC so it is a lean to Washington (+2.5) and OVER (49), both below model thresholds.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Riverboat Ron seems to have used all his luck last year, as seemingly the high-leverage situations and bounces of the oblong ball seem to go against the Panthers this year in stark contrast to last year. The Panthers actually have a positive Game Control rating and a positive yards per play differential, yet have a losing record and sit at the bottom of the high-scoring NFC South at 4-7. The Panthers team is still capable of putting up points with anyone, as the biggest differences offensively from last year have been Cam?s TD rate has been cut in half from last year?s MVP 7.1% of all throws as TDs to now the lowest of his career of 3.8%, a team turnover differential that was +20 last year, currently through 11 games sits at -5. While both of those stats are descriptive of what has occurred so far this season, neither is predictive of what will happen going forward (for reference Tom Brady?s TD percentage the past 10 years has been as high as 8.7% and as low as 4.0% in full 16 game seasons). The Seahawks are the ultimate team of styles this year, as their 7 best defensive performances they have held teams to an average of 13 points, in the other 4 games they have allowed an average 25 points per game with not 1 opponent falling with a score in the typical range of 18-24 (8% chance of happening). The Carolina team averages 51 points per contest and have been able to turn many games into shootouts. The advanced stats model sees value on the road dog and Over, so Panthers (+7) and OVER (44.5) are Strong Opinions.
I am expecting to see a stodgy game in which neither offense gets into a consistent flow, with the struggling OL groups in particular a factor in short yardage settings and near the goal line. That can mean punts instead of first downs, and field goals instead of touchdowns, leaving value for this opportunity.
The New York Knicks are a team I'm watching closely, as they're quietly finding their groove and getting comfortable with their new roster. The Knicks are also playing terrific ball on their home court where they have a ton of confidence. The Kings are still the Kings, which means they find ways to lose games more often than not. I'll take the red hot Knicks at home with the reasonable number.
Chicago will cream poor Jets...Chi at home (where they are 10-1-1-1) coming off a loss. Jets only 1 win last 7 on road, and now on 0 day rest (I know they really poor in that situation, but don't have the stats handy)
Wanderers vs Wanderers
Uruguay Primera | Wanderers vs Wanderers
Football game from Uruguay Primera - Wanderers at home the team is favorite against Villa Espanola.
I like for this game Wanderers to win and the game to end with more than 2.5 goals - Villa Espanola is a team who can conceded more goals in this game and game to end 3:0 4:0.
Wanderers is current 3rd on the table with 7 wins in 13 games and they scored 18 goals and 12 goals conceded.
Villa Espanola is the last placed and rock on the bottom team - one win only with 11:21 goal difference.
Last time when these two played was 2003 year finished 3:2 for Wanderers
Villa Espanola is the new team in elite football - they lost for last two rounds 0:3 and 1:2 against River pLate and Boston River.
Wanderers at last game won 4:2 against Atl Fenix and today my prediction is for more than 2.5 goals.
