01:00 PM NFL [308] NY GIANTS -4-110
01:00 PM NFL [310] BAL RAVENS -5-110
04:25 PM NFL [325] NE PATRIOTS -165
04:25 PM NFL [327] OAK RAIDERS -145
06:05 PM NBA [507] Toronto Raptors -5-110
01:00 PM CBB Added Game [540] Auburn -10.5 -105
02:00 PM CBB Added Game [546] North Carolina State -14-105
04:05 PM NHL [5] Columbus Blue Jackets -170
07:35 PM NHL [12] New York Rangers -177
1 unit bet pays 177 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Matthew Stafford in practice this week, not good:
By Kyle Meinke on December 15, 2016:
ALLEN PARK -- Matthew Stafford was back in his one-fingered glove for practice Thursday, although this time he didn't look nearly as sharp.
The Detroit Lions quarterback threw tight spirals and was on the mark during the 20 minutes that were available to the media on Wednesday, but didn't spin the ball nearly as well on Thursday. He didn't put any passes on the ground, but the ball did wobble more than usual and there were a couple straight-up ducks.
Patriots vs. Broncos
Play: Patriots -160
Last year I had my NFL Game of the Year on the Denver Broncos as a home underdog to New England in Week 12. The Broncos won in overtime by a score of 30-24, but I consider myself a little lucky to have won that bet. New England jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, and led 21-7 in the fourth quarter. The Broncos came storming back to tie the game and force overtime, then C.J. Anderson ran in the game winning touchdown. Anderson ran for 113 yards and two TDs in that game, and caught four passes for 40 yards.
The Broncos could really use that kind of production from the running back position right now, but unfortunately Devontae Booker has been giving them very little. Booker has just three rushing TDs this season, and not a single 100 yard game. The situation is so desperate for the Broncos, that they brought in Justin Forsett, who carried the bulk of the load last week managing just 17 yards on six carries. The fact that the Ravens let him go, despite the fact that they didn't really have an adequate replacement tells us all we need to know.
Denver's defense still ranks near the top of the league, but they have had real trouble stopping the run this season. Last week the Titans ran for 180 yards and a TD on 42 carries, winning 13-10. They rank 29th overall allowing over 127 rushing yards per game, and they'll be facing the league's leader in rushing TDs LeGarrette Blount. Tom Brady threw for over 400 yards and three TDs in the Pats win over the Ravens on Monday night. If that's what he does against the NFL's #1 ranked defense, he should do just fine in Denver.
Packers vs. Bears
Play: Bears +6
The dog has certainly been the way to go, covering 16 of the last 21 Bears' games. We had the Packers last week, a case where we felt they were undervalued, while the Seahawks were over-hyped off their win over the Carolina Panthers. A concern here is Aaron Rodgers, who was hobbling in the win over Seattle. Rodgers' calf isn't 100% healthy and we feel it'll effect his ability to escape trouble. The Chicago pass defense is a stingy one and they're 7th best in the league in total yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, on offense, Matt Barkley has shown improvement of late and Jordan Howard has played extremely well. Chicago has covered four straight, overall, and three in a row at Soldier Field. We feel they'll hang the number in the matchup with the Packers.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Play: Green Bay Packers -5.5
The Green Bay Packers have suffered extended streaks of success and failures this 2016 campaign. After a sluggish four-game losing streak the Lambeau lot are now riding a three-game winning streak and head into Sunday's visit to the Windy City just one game out of the final playoff spot in the NFC with a direct aim at stealing an NFC North title.
The Midwest is experiencing a cold front and the forecast for this Week #15 contest will be one of the coldest in the history at Soldier Field. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be in the neighborhood of zero with winds gusting up to 20 m.p.h.
Green Bay is making their run to make the playoffs. Coming off 3 consecutive wins, they now go back on the road to take on division rival Bears.
Fox is 2-11 ATS off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less. McCarthy is 29-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of the Packers. McCarthy is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of Green Bay. McCarthy is 13-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.
Atlanta (-13.5) over San Francisco
This is the biggest spread on the board this weekend. And it is for good reason. San Francisco hasn't won since Week 1. This is one of the worst teams in football, and they are getting blown out just about every week. The 49ers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall and the Falcons are coming off a 42-14 blowout winner at Los Angeles last week. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams from the NFC and they are always tough at home. San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS against fellow AFC teams and just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. The end of the season can't get here fast enough for San Francisco. And the Falcons are working on winning their division and getting into the playoffs. This one should be all Atlanta, and I think that this could easily turn into a 30-point game.
Detroit vs. New York
Play: New York -3?
Here's two teams that appear to be headed for the Playoffs despite not looking all that overwhelming for the vast majority of the season. And they've done so by both being a LOT better than anyone expected on the defensive side of the field. But the key to this one will be the home field advantage as each team has been really good at home, each posting 6-1 records on their home turf.
The Giants are fresh off their biggest win of the season as they knocked off the Dallas Cowboys last week, handing the red-hot Cowboys their first loss since...week one when the Giants pulled off a great finish down in Dallas. The bottom line here is that the New York defense seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. Sure, they did have a stumble two weeks ago with a road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that team is REALLY good when everyone is healthy and the Steelers finally have Big Ben, AB and LeVeon Bell all on the field at the same time. So the Giants do appear to be heading in the right direction.
And while Detroit is also 9-4, they have won several very close games with amazing 4th Quarter comebacks and even last week against the lowly Chicago Bears, the Lions needed a late drive to pull off a win at home. Matthew Stafford is having a very good year, but the bottom line here is that the Lions have been living dangerously on a weekly basis and that's probably not a great idea against a New York team led by Eli Manning who knows how to finish games.
We would LOVE this play if the line was 3 or less, but even as a 3.5 point favorite, the Giants are worth a solid look this weekend.
Detroit +4 over N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants beat the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football despite quarterback Eli Manning?s best efforts. New York turned the ball over three times and three other errant Manning passes were dropped by Dallas defenders. The Giants have been called the best team in the NFC by some big time talking heads after their season sweep of the Cowboys but it's important to shut out that noise when picking games. We are always mindful of a team that's coming off a high profile prime time win. They usually get a ton of positive attention the following week. The Giants' stock is also high because they've won seven of their last eight games but a closer looks show us it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds. Before their Sunday night win over the Cowboys, the Giants beat the Ravens, Rams, Eagles, Bengals, Bears and Browns. They could have easily lost any of those games, as six of those seven wins were by a touchdown or less. The G-Men were even in trouble in Week 12 at Cleveland. Of that group, only the Ravens and Cowboys have a winning record. The Giants have back-to-back road games with the division rival Eagles and Redskins coming up and are coming off a huge win over Dallas. This now looks like a very vulnerable spot for them. The Giants are really an average football team that has rode a string of good fortune to a great record.
The Lions have been historically lucky this season with their multiple fourth quarter comebacks. Last week, they again needed some late game heroics to defeat the Bears 17-13. That come from behind victory was their eighth rally of the season. When comparing the two quarterbacks in this game, it's no contest, as Matthew Stafford is quietly putting together an MVP caliber season while Eli Manning has been pretty average all year and especially in his last two games with three touchdowns and three interceptions while getting sacked five times. Meanwhile, Stafford has thrown 22 TDs to just seven INTs with over 3400 yards passing on a division leader. Stafford's QB rating is 97.8 and there is something to be said about his ability to lead his team back late in ball games. The Lions are largely being ignored as an NFC power and based on their historical commitment to failure we can understand why. The Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers Seahawks and Bucs are all being presented as more credible contenders than the NFC North leading Lions. Disrespect from the media and the market is not only extremely motivating for these players, it puts a big chip on their shoulder that they play with.
The market perception is that the Giants are the elite team in this match-up but a closer look reveals otherwise. Neither team can run the ball and therefore have to rely on their quarterbacks to score points. In that regard, give us Stafford over Eli 100% of the time at this point in their careers. You put these two QB?s in frigid temperatures and we trust Eli even less. The biggest advantage this week that the Lions hold is that they?re catching the Giants after a tough, emotional win. In a 50/50 game at worst for Detroit, the points hold tremendous value here in what figures to be a very low scoring game.
Philadelphia vs Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
I?m getting a lousy vibe from the slumping Eagles, just 2-8 SU and ATS since their hot 3-0 start back in September. Philly?s offense has been limited all year, and that hasn?t changed. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has hit a wall, now that opposing coordinators have plenty of film to study. Top RB Ryan Matthews is banged up; change of pace back and special teams maestro Darren Sproles is out, top WR Jordan Matthews is banged up and their offensive line is struggling in every way.
Defensively, the Eagles have gone downhill over the past month and a half. They?ve notched only eight sacks in the last seven games, and have permitted at least two TD passes in eight of their last ten overall. The Eagles scored another defensive touchdown last week against the Redskins, but they still lost and failed to cover the spread; a major ?red flag? moving forward.
And then there are the rumbles in the Eagles locker room. Last week, Defensive end Fletcher Cox was not amused by head coach Doug Pederson?s quote that ?Not everyone (played hard)? in their ugly loss at Cinci last week. Cox: ?That?s one of the things that we talked about, sticking together. And not calling anyone out, not separating yourself. Just sticking together as a team and as an organization and then when I heard that, it kinda wowed me. That?s not stuff that we do or things that we talk about it, but obviously somebody felt that way and they?re going to say how they feel.?
The fact that the Eagles lost at home, allowing 27 points including a late, backbreaking TD doesn?t bode well for their chances of improved chemistry moving forward. And it?s surely worth noting that Philly hasn?t won a road game or even covered a single pointspread on the highway since their Week 2 win on Sunday Night Football against the Bears.
There?s a sense of urgency in Baltimore this week following the Ravens loss at New England on Monday Night Football, dropping John Harbaugh?s squad a game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North standings. The Ravens defense is primed to put Carson Wentz on his back early and often; a strong pass rush teeing off against an injury riddled offensive line.
But the key to covering pointspreads in this range is the Ravens noticeable improvement in their passing game, a team that is suddenly scoring touchdowns after a season?s worth of red zone futility. Over the past two weeks, against a pair of rock solid defenses, the Ravens have scored six TD?s in eight red zone tries. Expect that red zone success to continue on Sunday, setting Baltimore up for a win and cover as home chalk against Philly.
Yeah, I know. Divisional home dog, public all over the favorite, looks too easy, etc. So I know the hazards here, it?s not like I?m a novice at this stuff.
Fact is, I generally will avoid the supposed obvious spots like the plague. But I?m riding with the Joes vs. the Pros on this one.
This is an anti-Chargers play for me. I?m sure they?re going to give it the old college try, or in this case the old professional try. But there?s been so much damage to the components that at this point, I don?t think San Diego is capable of beating any good teams. The Raiders are probably a tad overrated, but they have to qualify as a good team, don?t they?
The Chargers are running out of skill position players, and they are also beat up on the offensive line. The coaching staff is, to put it bluntly, overmatched on a weekly basis. This team lost games earlier this season that they appeared to be in great shape to win, and that ended up ruining their quest for a playoff spot. Technically, the Chargers are still alive. Realistically, the loss at Carolina last Sunday ended their season.
Oakland has much more to play for, and the Raiders also have the advantage of plenty of extra rest for this game. They haven?t played since the Thursday loss at Kansas City in Week 14.
It?s a matter of simple addition and subtraction for me on this game. The better team is rested, is much healthier and has much more to play for. The lesser entry is among the most beat up rosters in the league, they are now in playing for pride mode, and the Chargers might have less of a home field advantage than any team in the NFL at this point. That?s good enough for me, and I?m taking the Raiders in this game.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL?
Time to get into the marketplace with #327 Oakland (4:25 Eastern), since a good shopper can find -2.5 (Pinnacle now setting that plateau to help drive the rest of the market), and at worst -3 at even money or plus vigorish. There are some culminations at play here, first one of the weakest home field advantage settings across the NFL perhaps now reduced to a new low, and also the exhausting injury count taking the Chargers from a rubber band that had been stretched to an extreme to one that may now have snapped.
San Diego has not had any real home field boost at all vs. the Raiders in recent years, a 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS tally over the last seven meetings, and you should take the time to note how misleading the 37-29 beat-down by Oakland was here LY, the Raiders leading 37-6 at the end of the third quarter before backing off. What have appeared to be close to 50-50 crowds in terms of noise in the past might even show an edge to Oakland this time, playoff contention making the Raider fans in the area even louder, while things have gotten very subdued for the home team.
As bad as the San Diego injury load has been this season, arguably the worst I can recall for any NFL team, it gets even worse now without Melvin Gordon, who was having a Pro Bowl season. It isn?t just losing his talent, but the fact that on top of Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver and Dexter McCluster already lost to injury, they are left with undrafted rookie Kenneth Farrow as the lead guy. His skill set may not be good enough to play in the NFL, and in particular note that his lack of experience showed in missing a pass block last week that led to Philip Rivers fumbling. The Rivers story may define the state of affairs better than anything, a solid veteran almost alone against the world at this stage?
Rivers has been sacked 11 times and has thrown 10 interceptions over the last four games. That is what happens when there isn?t much support, and while some have blamed him for forcing plays, that is also what happens when you are truly competing ? he knows better than anyone how limited the supporting cast is, and that if he doesn?t take a few gambles they are not good enough to win. This was put into a rather succinct form by guard Matt Slauson ?
?We aren?t doing our job, and it forces him into bad spots. I don?t blame him for any of this. We have to do a better job as his supporting cast to help him out, and we?re not. It?s putting him in a position where he has to do things he wouldn?t normally do or he gets hit as he throws or the ball gets stripped out his hands. We can?t do it.?
This doesn?t get any better with Gordon missing, which allows the Oakland pass rush to tee off even more on Rivers. And when the Raiders have the ball they can spread the field and exploit a weakened San Diego CB corps that has already lost Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers for the season, and will likely be without Craig Mager, who did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. While Casey Heyward has been solid, the others in the rotation are Caraun Reid, Trevor Williams and Robert McClain, who all lack experience in this system, and we?ll see next summer if they have enough talent to be on NFL rosters.
Oakland comes in as the fresher and more focused team, and in this spread range the Raiders aren?t being asked to dominate. That makes this a more than fair value to get in play.
New Orleans vs. Arizona
Pick: Over 50
New Orleans is coming off back to back Unders. They have did that two other times this year and responded with an Over. One was a 41-23 (64 pts) @ San Fran and the next was a 49-21 (70 points) vs the Rams.
The Saints still have an elite passing offense led by Drew Brees and a strong trio of receivers. Michael Thomas is expected to play for the Saints and he has been a big part of their offense. Against the NFC West this year, he has 20 catches, 244 yards, and 4 TD?s.
When the Saints play on the road vs the NFC West, the OVER is 10-3 their L13 and have given up an average of 30.6 ppg their L9 on the road vs the NFC West. In this series, the home team has scored 30 points or more the L6 meetings. With both teams at 5-7 and playing desperate, I have to count the Cardinals for 28 or more today. They have averaged 30.5 ppg their L6 home games vs the NFC South.
The Saints defense is still vulnerable and will be without their top cover cornerback, Delvin Breaux.
Arizona?s Carson Palmer is playing better, especially at home. This year he has a 11 TD/ 3 INT mark at home with a 62% completion percentage. He also has not gotten sacked as much at home and the Saints don?t have a very strong pass rush, ranked 20th in sacks. The Cardinals got rid of Michael Floyd who had caught less than 50% of his targets and dropped a bunch of passes this year. They have Nelson who can be used in the slot and hopefully John Brown will be able to go. Brown and Nelson don?t have the height that Floyd have, but are quick and can be effective against a Saints defense that gives up also 12 yards a completion and they should be able to rack up some yards after the reception.
Arizona ranks 11th in the NFL in scoring touchdowns on 60% of their red zone drives while the Saints rank 5th at 65%. I think we should see a 34-31 type of score with whoever has the ball last wins the game.
Tennessee +5 over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs are the toast of the town in the AFC after dispelling the Raiders 21-13 on Thursday Night Football. Kansas City has gotten its fair share of bounces lately by winning four of its last six games by less than a touchdown. Wins over Atlanta, Denver and Carolina all came down to the final play. When they beat the Jags six weeks ago, 19-14, the Chiefs were dominated on the stats sheet and in time of possession. The Chiefs have been called the most ?complete? team in the AFC by more than one national pundit but we're not ready to crown Andy Reid as anything other than, ?King of the Idiots? now that Jeff Fisher is out of the picture.
Reid barely knows what down it is. After two early turnovers to start the second half on Thursday Night football last week against Oakland, Reid and the Chiefs' offense went into "Operation Shutdown". Nobody plays it safer than Andy. He's not going to let Alex Smith throw the ball more than eight yards because that's when bad things happen. The Chiefs have had at least six fortunate wins this year. The only reason they defeated Oakland last week is because Derek Carr went Brock Osweiler and had his worst game in a very long time and it?s not because the Chiefs coverage was great. Carr only completed 17 of 41 passes for 117 yards, he was errant all night and the receivers did him few favors when he did get the ball close to them. Despite having such a terrible game, the Chiefs scored a lousy 21 points and had to hang on to win it. The Chiefs might be the most overvalued team in the NFL and we will continue to fade them until their annual, unceremonious playoff exit. With a 2-0 advantage over the Raiders, K.C. now has some breathing room. Furthermore, this game is sandwiched between Oakland in prime time last week and Denver in prime time next week.
With three games to go, the Titans are tied with the Texans for the AFC South lead. The Titans are coming off a 13-10 defensive battle victory over the defending champion Broncos last week in Nashville. It was the fourth consecutive game the Titans did not commit a turnover. Before last week's low offensive output, Tennessee had scored at least 26 points in seven of their last nine games. The Titans defense limited the Broncos to just 18 yards rushing and we see that commitment to stopping the run working in their favor this week against a Chiefs team that will risk nothing the rest of the way. The Titans defense and veteran players are still rowing the boat, the offense has a newfound identity and the team has great momentum and a positive vibe heading into this week. Count us in for as long as that's happening and especially this week in a very vulnerable spot for the Chiefs. When a 10-3 team is at home and spotting a small number to a team that few follow, we know what to do.
Titans vs. Chiefs
Play: Chiefs -5
Kansas City took over first place in the AFC West with a win over the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. The thing is, the Chiefs can't let their foot off the gas. The difference between winning the division, is a first round bye and home playoff game and having to play 3 straight on the road as a Wild Card team. I love the fact that the Chiefs get a few extra days to prepare, as Andy Reid and his staff excel when given extra time to prepare for an opponent. Kansas City's offense is vastly underrated now that Hill has made his mark and Maclin is back in the mix. The defensive numbers aren't great for the season, but they also haven't had their best defensive player for the majority of the year. Justin Houston is a difference maker and this Chiefs team is at their best at home. I just don't trust the Titans on the road and don't think they are all they are made out be, playing in the awful AFC South.
New Orleans +139 over ARIZONA
The Cardinals are 4-2-1 at home and this is their final game of the year there. However, by losing three of their last four games, the Cardinals fate this year is sealed. They?re done. The offense has taken a major step backwards when passing but what sticks out to us is that the Cardinals are claiming they intend to bring everyone back next year. When an organization is discussing next year with three weeks left, it is a sign of throwing in the proverbial towel. That is not the type of team you want to get behind. That sort of talk resonates into the locker room, which in turn creates a rather nonchalant mindset. Aside from that, Arizona has to overcome a patchwork offensive line here and the sense we get is that they are a team that is not focused on the task at hand.
Nobody with any football acumen was willing to admit at any point this season that the New Orleans Saints were going to the playoffs. They started 0-3 and have been fighting for their lives ever since -- until Sunday. The one thing you could always count on from Drew Brees was at least one touchdown and possibly several more. He set all-time numbers for consecutive games with at least one TD pass. In the last two games, losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay, Brees has no touchdowns and six interceptions. At a time when the Saints needed to build momentum for a division title run, they gassed out against two legitimate playoff contenders and, at 5-8, they?re done too and are playing for nothing. However, we are in the buy-low business and now that this game means nothing, it would come as no surprise if Brees went off here in the desert. Say what you will about Sean Payton but he at least gives it his all every single week and will not tolerate anyone playing at half speed. We?re always factoring the stakes of a game into the equation by constantly assessing what's in the pot for each team and how each views that reward. Our sense from reading the practice reports all week is that the Saints are hungry and they?re playing to win while the Cardinals are looking to wrap this season up after such high expectations went awry. Saints? outright get this call.
DALLAS -7 over Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers are the hottest team in the NFC. They've won five straight and seven of their last nine after a poor 1-3 start to the season. Despite their recent success, there are cracks in their game and now the spotlight is on them, which is a scenario they rarely thrive in. Jameis Winston is still an inconsistent quarterback. He did not impress last week with just 184 yards passing with no touchdowns against a Saints defense that has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks all season. Tampa's offense has sputtered with just six touchdowns over the last four games. The Bucs are a one-dimensional team that has had to rely on their defense to win games. We often discuss stepping in and out at the right or wrong time. Playing the Bucs here would likely be bad timing, as they have cashed tickets the past five weeks. After being under the radar during this entire five-game winning streak, the Bucs are now getting a ton of attention in this prime time game. This line has been called ?disrespectful?. We agree, but it's not the Bucs who are getting the shaft here, it's the home-town Cowboys.
As word of rookie quarterback Dak Prescott's demise dominated the airwaves, we paid no attention to this nothing story. Prescott could not have looked worse on Sunday Night Football against the Giants after posting season lows across the board. After a poor public performance from Prescott, Tony Romo highlight reels have been rolling on NFL Network, ESPN and every other major sports network this week. Local and national radio hosts have been waiting for the Cowboys' QB controversy all season and it's being milked for every drop. It's easy to play results but let us not forget the Giants looked terrible too and the Cowboys had their chances to win that high profile prime time game. We're not going to overreact to one bad performance. The Cowboys' stock is unusually low for an 11-2 team but this is a ?week-to-week? league and that Sunday night disappointment sticks out in the minds? of most bettors. The best plays weekly often involve overreactions from the previous week?s prime time games. A lot of money was lost on Dallas last week and now they?re giving away seven points to one of the hottest teams in the league. The points may look appealing but aside from this being a strong buy-low, sell high opportunity, Dallas is used to the spotlight, as they are in it every year, win or lose. By contrast, Tampa has to find a way to channel all that outside noise into a strong performance but we wouldn?t trust them for a second. This is a visitor that rarely finds their mojo when the chips are down and this is just another time they?ll have a chance on national television to experience the sweet taste of relevance. We?re suggesting they?ll squander that status immediately.
Saints at Cardinals
Play: Saints +3
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games (4-1 ATS this season), 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus .499 or worse opposition and 7-3 ATS in its last ten games overall. In contrast, Arizona continues to be overvalued by the betting market as the Cardinals are a money-burning 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and 4-10 ATS in their last fourteen home games (3-4 ATS this season).
Both of these teams are basically the walking dead in terms of the playoff picture, but the Cardinals are dealing with a host of injuries that will force head coach Bruce Arians to play a lot of young and untested players.
"Good opportunity for a lot of young guys because they?re going to get a lot of playing time out of necessity," Arians said. "So it?s a great opportunity for them. Look forward to a really solid game by everybody."
Arizona will also be without tackle D.J. Humphries, who suffered a concussion last weekend against the Dolphins and remains in the league protocol. The Cardinals are also dealing with the fallout of wide receiver Michael Floyd's release following an arrest on charges of DUI and disobeying an office in Scottsdale.
Reports indicate that several players were disenchanted about the organization's decision to cut Floyd, including fellow wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald considered Floyd a "brother" and someone he has known since he was 13 years old. "I love him dearly and like any other family member I never turn my back on him no matter what," Fitzgerald said. "I?m going to support him. I saw him yesterday. I?m going to see him again today. It?s important during these times to support people when they?re going through some stuff.?
Finally, Sunday's game holds special meaning for New Orleans running back Tim Hightower, who began his career in Arizona. ?If I could try to put it in a few words ... it means everything,? Hightower said. ?Man, I want to win every game, but this game is special for me. This is where it all started for me. This is the place where it all began. So it?s special.?
There is no question that Hightower will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, and I expect the Saints to get the win for their teammate.
New York Giants -4
The Detroit Lions are probably the single-most overrated team in the NFL this season. Miraculously, they have a 9-4 record despite trailing in the 4th quarter in 12 of their 13 games this season. Matthew Stafford has an NFL-record eight game-winning drives in the 4th quarter or OT this season.
That isn't sustainable, and the Lions are in over their heads this week. The main reason is because Stafford has an injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand that is requiring him to wear a glove. We saw how that worked out against the Bears last week.
After the injury, Stafford threw a red zone interception. Then on their very next drive, he threw a pick-six that gave the Bears the lead. Give Stafford credit for leading the Lions on another game-winning drive after that, but he only completed one pass on the drive. The Lions were aided by penalties, and Stafford scored the deciding TD rushing.
Stafford has been testing out a bunch of different gloves all week to try and find something that feels comfortable. According to reports, nothing feels right. And without Stafford on his 'A' game, the Lions have no shot of beating the Giants this week in a hostile, cold atmosphere on the road in New York this week.
Now Stafford will have to face one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this week. The Giants rank 7th in scoring defense, giving up just 18.8 points per game this year. They have held 12 of their 13 opponents to 24 points or fewer this season, including five of the last seven to 20 or less. They limited the Cowboys to just 7 points and 260 total yards last week while forcing three turnovers.
Detroit is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 road games off two or more consecutive wins. New York is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 6-1 at home this season.
Here's another shocking stat about Stafford. He has only beaten one team on the road in his ENTIRE career that finished the season with a winning record. Well, the Giants are going to finish with a winning record, and they're on a mission here to get a win and inch closer to securing a playoff berth.
49ers at Falcons
Play: Over 51
A non-division NFC clash takes place at 1:00 ET on Sunday in Atlanta, as the Falcons host the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are off a 23-17 home loss to the Jets, which is their 12th straight loss since their Week 1 win over the Rams. The Falcons are off a 42-14 beating of the Rams in which they led 42-0 in the third quarter. I am recommending a play on the OVER.
The Over is a perfect 6-0 in Atlanta's home games this season. These games went Over the posted totals by an average of 12.5 points per contest. There have been an average of 63 points scored in Falcons home games this season. 33.5 of those points belong to Atlanta. They should be able to exceed that average against this pathetic 49ers defense, which is DEAD LAST in the NFL in points allowed per game (30.2) and yards allowed per game (415.3).
If you throw out the 'Niners' road game in Chicago from two weeks ago (adverse weather conditions), the Over is 4-1 in their other five road games. Those five games went Over by an average of 12.7 points per contest. The 49ers allowed 36.4 points in those games.
As long as Chip Kelly is leading the 49ers, they will play at a break-neck speed on offense. That serves us well because: A) It leads to more offensive plays per game; and B ) It exposes an already lousy defense by keeping them on the field for more-than-average plays.
The Falcons just might break 40 points again this week. QB Matt Ryan will have no trouble spreading the ball around if WR Julio Jones can't go. There is also the very good possibility of Atlanta having a big fourth-quarter lead (they are a 2-TD favorite, after all), and giving up a garbage-time TD or two. I'm expecting this game to end up around 58 total points.
The Packers are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between with Chicago, including six straight covers in Chicago.
The Packers have covered in 10 of their last 13 December/January games, including a 2-0 ATS mark this season.
In his career, Andrew Luck is 21-5 ATS in games following a Colts loss (in same season).
The total has gone over in all six of the Colts' games away from home this season. Dating back to last season, the over has hit in Luck's last eight road starts.
The total has gone under in seven straight Lions games and five straight Giants games.
The Texans are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine divisional games.
The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
The total has gone over in 11 of the Falcons' 13 games this season, including in all six played in Atlanta.
Under Gary Kubiak, the Broncos are 8-2-1 ATS with eight outright wins as an underdog. As a home underdog under Kubiak, the Broncos are 4-0 ATS with four outright wins, and two of those upsets came against the Patriots last season.
Tom Brady is 2-7 ATS in nine career games at Denver (also 2-7 straight up).
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers-The underdog has covered in 14 of the last 15 meetings between these teams.
I am siding with the Kings in this matchup. The Mavericks are dealing with too many injuries and they simply can?t generate much scoring right now. The Kings have Cousins playing great basketball along with Darren Collison and Rudy Gay if he plays, so they should score points. The Kings are average defensively, but they will be going up against the lowest scoring team in the NBA, so they should contain the Mavs scoring. Sacramento crushed Dallas 120-89 in Dallas a few weeks ago and I think they will be able to get the job done in this one as well. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Dallas, and that trend should continue in this one.
Toronto has to be disappointed with their defensive performance in the loss to Atlanta. It?s a safe bet that you won?t see that kind of showing here. Orlando has shown some flashes of offensive competence lately, which is a nice change of pace for the Magic. Still, the Magic doesn?t have the depth in their rotation that Toronto does. The Raptors get production up and down their rotation, which leads them to the victory here.
Celtics -4
Boston (14-12, 13-12 ATS) will play five of its next seven on the road including a visit to Cleveland. The Celtics beat the Heat for the fourth straight time 112-104 on November 28 as Isiah Thomas scored 25 points and dished out eight assists.
Miami (9-18, 14-13 ATS)won the first two games of its season-high six-game homestand before falling 102-98 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night.Goran Drajic had a double-double against the Clippers with 21 points and 11 assists and is averaging 21.points and 8.3 assists in a four-game span.
The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in the last seven series meetings.
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. the NBA Southeast Division and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.
Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last five overall and 4-1 ATS last five against the Eastern Conference. However the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five against the Atlantic Division.
The two teams are a combined 31-22 to the UNDER. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 series meetings.
The Celtics are 24-7 to the low side when playing on one day?s rest while the Heat are 5-1 in their last six in that same scenario.
Columbus vs. Vancouver
Pick: Columbus
Everything is going right for the Blue Jackets right now, who won their eighth straight on Friday night in Calgary. That puts them one victory away from tying the franchise record of nine straight set late in the 2014-2015 season. And the way they're playing right now, it doesn't look like there's much that can stop them - certainly not the Canucks. Columbus hasn't just been winning, they've been dominating the opposition. Consider that during these past eight games, the Jackets have out-scored their opponents by a total of 28-11. And the scary thing for the teams they play right now is that you can't focus on just one or two Jackets players in an effort to stem thwart them. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is the likely team MVP, but from an offensive standpoint, there are just too many weapons for opponents to consider. The Canucks come into this game having won their last one against a depleted Lightning squad that is about as diametrically opposite from the Jackets right now as humanly possible. A repeat of the victory on Friday seems highly unlikely, especially when you consider that Vancouver is 1-8 in its last nine following a win.
Gonzaga at Tennessee
Pick: Under
A good battle between a pair of teams loaded with talent and strong defense. Gonzaga can play any style and is 17-5 under the total in non-conference tilts. Tennessee is on a 16-5-2 run under the total, plus 18-7-2 under in non-conference games.
01:00 PM NFL [310] BAL RAVENS -5-110
04:25 PM NFL [325] NE PATRIOTS -165
04:25 PM NFL [327] OAK RAIDERS -145
06:05 PM NBA [507] Toronto Raptors -5-110
01:00 PM CBB Added Game [540] Auburn -10.5 -105
02:00 PM CBB Added Game [546] North Carolina State -14-105
04:05 PM NHL [5] Columbus Blue Jackets -170
07:35 PM NHL [12] New York Rangers -177
1 unit bet pays 177 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Matthew Stafford in practice this week, not good:
By Kyle Meinke on December 15, 2016:
ALLEN PARK -- Matthew Stafford was back in his one-fingered glove for practice Thursday, although this time he didn't look nearly as sharp.
The Detroit Lions quarterback threw tight spirals and was on the mark during the 20 minutes that were available to the media on Wednesday, but didn't spin the ball nearly as well on Thursday. He didn't put any passes on the ground, but the ball did wobble more than usual and there were a couple straight-up ducks.
Patriots vs. Broncos
Play: Patriots -160
Last year I had my NFL Game of the Year on the Denver Broncos as a home underdog to New England in Week 12. The Broncos won in overtime by a score of 30-24, but I consider myself a little lucky to have won that bet. New England jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, and led 21-7 in the fourth quarter. The Broncos came storming back to tie the game and force overtime, then C.J. Anderson ran in the game winning touchdown. Anderson ran for 113 yards and two TDs in that game, and caught four passes for 40 yards.
The Broncos could really use that kind of production from the running back position right now, but unfortunately Devontae Booker has been giving them very little. Booker has just three rushing TDs this season, and not a single 100 yard game. The situation is so desperate for the Broncos, that they brought in Justin Forsett, who carried the bulk of the load last week managing just 17 yards on six carries. The fact that the Ravens let him go, despite the fact that they didn't really have an adequate replacement tells us all we need to know.
Denver's defense still ranks near the top of the league, but they have had real trouble stopping the run this season. Last week the Titans ran for 180 yards and a TD on 42 carries, winning 13-10. They rank 29th overall allowing over 127 rushing yards per game, and they'll be facing the league's leader in rushing TDs LeGarrette Blount. Tom Brady threw for over 400 yards and three TDs in the Pats win over the Ravens on Monday night. If that's what he does against the NFL's #1 ranked defense, he should do just fine in Denver.
Packers vs. Bears
Play: Bears +6
The dog has certainly been the way to go, covering 16 of the last 21 Bears' games. We had the Packers last week, a case where we felt they were undervalued, while the Seahawks were over-hyped off their win over the Carolina Panthers. A concern here is Aaron Rodgers, who was hobbling in the win over Seattle. Rodgers' calf isn't 100% healthy and we feel it'll effect his ability to escape trouble. The Chicago pass defense is a stingy one and they're 7th best in the league in total yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, on offense, Matt Barkley has shown improvement of late and Jordan Howard has played extremely well. Chicago has covered four straight, overall, and three in a row at Soldier Field. We feel they'll hang the number in the matchup with the Packers.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Play: Green Bay Packers -5.5
The Green Bay Packers have suffered extended streaks of success and failures this 2016 campaign. After a sluggish four-game losing streak the Lambeau lot are now riding a three-game winning streak and head into Sunday's visit to the Windy City just one game out of the final playoff spot in the NFC with a direct aim at stealing an NFC North title.
The Midwest is experiencing a cold front and the forecast for this Week #15 contest will be one of the coldest in the history at Soldier Field. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be in the neighborhood of zero with winds gusting up to 20 m.p.h.
Green Bay is making their run to make the playoffs. Coming off 3 consecutive wins, they now go back on the road to take on division rival Bears.
Fox is 2-11 ATS off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less. McCarthy is 29-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of the Packers. McCarthy is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of Green Bay. McCarthy is 13-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.
Atlanta (-13.5) over San Francisco
This is the biggest spread on the board this weekend. And it is for good reason. San Francisco hasn't won since Week 1. This is one of the worst teams in football, and they are getting blown out just about every week. The 49ers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall and the Falcons are coming off a 42-14 blowout winner at Los Angeles last week. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams from the NFC and they are always tough at home. San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS against fellow AFC teams and just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. The end of the season can't get here fast enough for San Francisco. And the Falcons are working on winning their division and getting into the playoffs. This one should be all Atlanta, and I think that this could easily turn into a 30-point game.
Detroit vs. New York
Play: New York -3?
Here's two teams that appear to be headed for the Playoffs despite not looking all that overwhelming for the vast majority of the season. And they've done so by both being a LOT better than anyone expected on the defensive side of the field. But the key to this one will be the home field advantage as each team has been really good at home, each posting 6-1 records on their home turf.
The Giants are fresh off their biggest win of the season as they knocked off the Dallas Cowboys last week, handing the red-hot Cowboys their first loss since...week one when the Giants pulled off a great finish down in Dallas. The bottom line here is that the New York defense seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. Sure, they did have a stumble two weeks ago with a road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that team is REALLY good when everyone is healthy and the Steelers finally have Big Ben, AB and LeVeon Bell all on the field at the same time. So the Giants do appear to be heading in the right direction.
And while Detroit is also 9-4, they have won several very close games with amazing 4th Quarter comebacks and even last week against the lowly Chicago Bears, the Lions needed a late drive to pull off a win at home. Matthew Stafford is having a very good year, but the bottom line here is that the Lions have been living dangerously on a weekly basis and that's probably not a great idea against a New York team led by Eli Manning who knows how to finish games.
We would LOVE this play if the line was 3 or less, but even as a 3.5 point favorite, the Giants are worth a solid look this weekend.
Detroit +4 over N.Y. GIANTS
The Giants beat the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football despite quarterback Eli Manning?s best efforts. New York turned the ball over three times and three other errant Manning passes were dropped by Dallas defenders. The Giants have been called the best team in the NFC by some big time talking heads after their season sweep of the Cowboys but it's important to shut out that noise when picking games. We are always mindful of a team that's coming off a high profile prime time win. They usually get a ton of positive attention the following week. The Giants' stock is also high because they've won seven of their last eight games but a closer looks show us it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds. Before their Sunday night win over the Cowboys, the Giants beat the Ravens, Rams, Eagles, Bengals, Bears and Browns. They could have easily lost any of those games, as six of those seven wins were by a touchdown or less. The G-Men were even in trouble in Week 12 at Cleveland. Of that group, only the Ravens and Cowboys have a winning record. The Giants have back-to-back road games with the division rival Eagles and Redskins coming up and are coming off a huge win over Dallas. This now looks like a very vulnerable spot for them. The Giants are really an average football team that has rode a string of good fortune to a great record.
The Lions have been historically lucky this season with their multiple fourth quarter comebacks. Last week, they again needed some late game heroics to defeat the Bears 17-13. That come from behind victory was their eighth rally of the season. When comparing the two quarterbacks in this game, it's no contest, as Matthew Stafford is quietly putting together an MVP caliber season while Eli Manning has been pretty average all year and especially in his last two games with three touchdowns and three interceptions while getting sacked five times. Meanwhile, Stafford has thrown 22 TDs to just seven INTs with over 3400 yards passing on a division leader. Stafford's QB rating is 97.8 and there is something to be said about his ability to lead his team back late in ball games. The Lions are largely being ignored as an NFC power and based on their historical commitment to failure we can understand why. The Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers Seahawks and Bucs are all being presented as more credible contenders than the NFC North leading Lions. Disrespect from the media and the market is not only extremely motivating for these players, it puts a big chip on their shoulder that they play with.
The market perception is that the Giants are the elite team in this match-up but a closer look reveals otherwise. Neither team can run the ball and therefore have to rely on their quarterbacks to score points. In that regard, give us Stafford over Eli 100% of the time at this point in their careers. You put these two QB?s in frigid temperatures and we trust Eli even less. The biggest advantage this week that the Lions hold is that they?re catching the Giants after a tough, emotional win. In a 50/50 game at worst for Detroit, the points hold tremendous value here in what figures to be a very low scoring game.
Philadelphia vs Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
I?m getting a lousy vibe from the slumping Eagles, just 2-8 SU and ATS since their hot 3-0 start back in September. Philly?s offense has been limited all year, and that hasn?t changed. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has hit a wall, now that opposing coordinators have plenty of film to study. Top RB Ryan Matthews is banged up; change of pace back and special teams maestro Darren Sproles is out, top WR Jordan Matthews is banged up and their offensive line is struggling in every way.
Defensively, the Eagles have gone downhill over the past month and a half. They?ve notched only eight sacks in the last seven games, and have permitted at least two TD passes in eight of their last ten overall. The Eagles scored another defensive touchdown last week against the Redskins, but they still lost and failed to cover the spread; a major ?red flag? moving forward.
And then there are the rumbles in the Eagles locker room. Last week, Defensive end Fletcher Cox was not amused by head coach Doug Pederson?s quote that ?Not everyone (played hard)? in their ugly loss at Cinci last week. Cox: ?That?s one of the things that we talked about, sticking together. And not calling anyone out, not separating yourself. Just sticking together as a team and as an organization and then when I heard that, it kinda wowed me. That?s not stuff that we do or things that we talk about it, but obviously somebody felt that way and they?re going to say how they feel.?
The fact that the Eagles lost at home, allowing 27 points including a late, backbreaking TD doesn?t bode well for their chances of improved chemistry moving forward. And it?s surely worth noting that Philly hasn?t won a road game or even covered a single pointspread on the highway since their Week 2 win on Sunday Night Football against the Bears.
There?s a sense of urgency in Baltimore this week following the Ravens loss at New England on Monday Night Football, dropping John Harbaugh?s squad a game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North standings. The Ravens defense is primed to put Carson Wentz on his back early and often; a strong pass rush teeing off against an injury riddled offensive line.
But the key to covering pointspreads in this range is the Ravens noticeable improvement in their passing game, a team that is suddenly scoring touchdowns after a season?s worth of red zone futility. Over the past two weeks, against a pair of rock solid defenses, the Ravens have scored six TD?s in eight red zone tries. Expect that red zone success to continue on Sunday, setting Baltimore up for a win and cover as home chalk against Philly.
Yeah, I know. Divisional home dog, public all over the favorite, looks too easy, etc. So I know the hazards here, it?s not like I?m a novice at this stuff.
Fact is, I generally will avoid the supposed obvious spots like the plague. But I?m riding with the Joes vs. the Pros on this one.
This is an anti-Chargers play for me. I?m sure they?re going to give it the old college try, or in this case the old professional try. But there?s been so much damage to the components that at this point, I don?t think San Diego is capable of beating any good teams. The Raiders are probably a tad overrated, but they have to qualify as a good team, don?t they?
The Chargers are running out of skill position players, and they are also beat up on the offensive line. The coaching staff is, to put it bluntly, overmatched on a weekly basis. This team lost games earlier this season that they appeared to be in great shape to win, and that ended up ruining their quest for a playoff spot. Technically, the Chargers are still alive. Realistically, the loss at Carolina last Sunday ended their season.
Oakland has much more to play for, and the Raiders also have the advantage of plenty of extra rest for this game. They haven?t played since the Thursday loss at Kansas City in Week 14.
It?s a matter of simple addition and subtraction for me on this game. The better team is rested, is much healthier and has much more to play for. The lesser entry is among the most beat up rosters in the league, they are now in playing for pride mode, and the Chargers might have less of a home field advantage than any team in the NFL at this point. That?s good enough for me, and I?m taking the Raiders in this game.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL?
Time to get into the marketplace with #327 Oakland (4:25 Eastern), since a good shopper can find -2.5 (Pinnacle now setting that plateau to help drive the rest of the market), and at worst -3 at even money or plus vigorish. There are some culminations at play here, first one of the weakest home field advantage settings across the NFL perhaps now reduced to a new low, and also the exhausting injury count taking the Chargers from a rubber band that had been stretched to an extreme to one that may now have snapped.
San Diego has not had any real home field boost at all vs. the Raiders in recent years, a 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS tally over the last seven meetings, and you should take the time to note how misleading the 37-29 beat-down by Oakland was here LY, the Raiders leading 37-6 at the end of the third quarter before backing off. What have appeared to be close to 50-50 crowds in terms of noise in the past might even show an edge to Oakland this time, playoff contention making the Raider fans in the area even louder, while things have gotten very subdued for the home team.
As bad as the San Diego injury load has been this season, arguably the worst I can recall for any NFL team, it gets even worse now without Melvin Gordon, who was having a Pro Bowl season. It isn?t just losing his talent, but the fact that on top of Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver and Dexter McCluster already lost to injury, they are left with undrafted rookie Kenneth Farrow as the lead guy. His skill set may not be good enough to play in the NFL, and in particular note that his lack of experience showed in missing a pass block last week that led to Philip Rivers fumbling. The Rivers story may define the state of affairs better than anything, a solid veteran almost alone against the world at this stage?
Rivers has been sacked 11 times and has thrown 10 interceptions over the last four games. That is what happens when there isn?t much support, and while some have blamed him for forcing plays, that is also what happens when you are truly competing ? he knows better than anyone how limited the supporting cast is, and that if he doesn?t take a few gambles they are not good enough to win. This was put into a rather succinct form by guard Matt Slauson ?
?We aren?t doing our job, and it forces him into bad spots. I don?t blame him for any of this. We have to do a better job as his supporting cast to help him out, and we?re not. It?s putting him in a position where he has to do things he wouldn?t normally do or he gets hit as he throws or the ball gets stripped out his hands. We can?t do it.?
This doesn?t get any better with Gordon missing, which allows the Oakland pass rush to tee off even more on Rivers. And when the Raiders have the ball they can spread the field and exploit a weakened San Diego CB corps that has already lost Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers for the season, and will likely be without Craig Mager, who did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. While Casey Heyward has been solid, the others in the rotation are Caraun Reid, Trevor Williams and Robert McClain, who all lack experience in this system, and we?ll see next summer if they have enough talent to be on NFL rosters.
Oakland comes in as the fresher and more focused team, and in this spread range the Raiders aren?t being asked to dominate. That makes this a more than fair value to get in play.
New Orleans vs. Arizona
Pick: Over 50
New Orleans is coming off back to back Unders. They have did that two other times this year and responded with an Over. One was a 41-23 (64 pts) @ San Fran and the next was a 49-21 (70 points) vs the Rams.
The Saints still have an elite passing offense led by Drew Brees and a strong trio of receivers. Michael Thomas is expected to play for the Saints and he has been a big part of their offense. Against the NFC West this year, he has 20 catches, 244 yards, and 4 TD?s.
When the Saints play on the road vs the NFC West, the OVER is 10-3 their L13 and have given up an average of 30.6 ppg their L9 on the road vs the NFC West. In this series, the home team has scored 30 points or more the L6 meetings. With both teams at 5-7 and playing desperate, I have to count the Cardinals for 28 or more today. They have averaged 30.5 ppg their L6 home games vs the NFC South.
The Saints defense is still vulnerable and will be without their top cover cornerback, Delvin Breaux.
Arizona?s Carson Palmer is playing better, especially at home. This year he has a 11 TD/ 3 INT mark at home with a 62% completion percentage. He also has not gotten sacked as much at home and the Saints don?t have a very strong pass rush, ranked 20th in sacks. The Cardinals got rid of Michael Floyd who had caught less than 50% of his targets and dropped a bunch of passes this year. They have Nelson who can be used in the slot and hopefully John Brown will be able to go. Brown and Nelson don?t have the height that Floyd have, but are quick and can be effective against a Saints defense that gives up also 12 yards a completion and they should be able to rack up some yards after the reception.
Arizona ranks 11th in the NFL in scoring touchdowns on 60% of their red zone drives while the Saints rank 5th at 65%. I think we should see a 34-31 type of score with whoever has the ball last wins the game.
Tennessee +5 over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs are the toast of the town in the AFC after dispelling the Raiders 21-13 on Thursday Night Football. Kansas City has gotten its fair share of bounces lately by winning four of its last six games by less than a touchdown. Wins over Atlanta, Denver and Carolina all came down to the final play. When they beat the Jags six weeks ago, 19-14, the Chiefs were dominated on the stats sheet and in time of possession. The Chiefs have been called the most ?complete? team in the AFC by more than one national pundit but we're not ready to crown Andy Reid as anything other than, ?King of the Idiots? now that Jeff Fisher is out of the picture.
Reid barely knows what down it is. After two early turnovers to start the second half on Thursday Night football last week against Oakland, Reid and the Chiefs' offense went into "Operation Shutdown". Nobody plays it safer than Andy. He's not going to let Alex Smith throw the ball more than eight yards because that's when bad things happen. The Chiefs have had at least six fortunate wins this year. The only reason they defeated Oakland last week is because Derek Carr went Brock Osweiler and had his worst game in a very long time and it?s not because the Chiefs coverage was great. Carr only completed 17 of 41 passes for 117 yards, he was errant all night and the receivers did him few favors when he did get the ball close to them. Despite having such a terrible game, the Chiefs scored a lousy 21 points and had to hang on to win it. The Chiefs might be the most overvalued team in the NFL and we will continue to fade them until their annual, unceremonious playoff exit. With a 2-0 advantage over the Raiders, K.C. now has some breathing room. Furthermore, this game is sandwiched between Oakland in prime time last week and Denver in prime time next week.
With three games to go, the Titans are tied with the Texans for the AFC South lead. The Titans are coming off a 13-10 defensive battle victory over the defending champion Broncos last week in Nashville. It was the fourth consecutive game the Titans did not commit a turnover. Before last week's low offensive output, Tennessee had scored at least 26 points in seven of their last nine games. The Titans defense limited the Broncos to just 18 yards rushing and we see that commitment to stopping the run working in their favor this week against a Chiefs team that will risk nothing the rest of the way. The Titans defense and veteran players are still rowing the boat, the offense has a newfound identity and the team has great momentum and a positive vibe heading into this week. Count us in for as long as that's happening and especially this week in a very vulnerable spot for the Chiefs. When a 10-3 team is at home and spotting a small number to a team that few follow, we know what to do.
Titans vs. Chiefs
Play: Chiefs -5
Kansas City took over first place in the AFC West with a win over the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. The thing is, the Chiefs can't let their foot off the gas. The difference between winning the division, is a first round bye and home playoff game and having to play 3 straight on the road as a Wild Card team. I love the fact that the Chiefs get a few extra days to prepare, as Andy Reid and his staff excel when given extra time to prepare for an opponent. Kansas City's offense is vastly underrated now that Hill has made his mark and Maclin is back in the mix. The defensive numbers aren't great for the season, but they also haven't had their best defensive player for the majority of the year. Justin Houston is a difference maker and this Chiefs team is at their best at home. I just don't trust the Titans on the road and don't think they are all they are made out be, playing in the awful AFC South.
New Orleans +139 over ARIZONA
The Cardinals are 4-2-1 at home and this is their final game of the year there. However, by losing three of their last four games, the Cardinals fate this year is sealed. They?re done. The offense has taken a major step backwards when passing but what sticks out to us is that the Cardinals are claiming they intend to bring everyone back next year. When an organization is discussing next year with three weeks left, it is a sign of throwing in the proverbial towel. That is not the type of team you want to get behind. That sort of talk resonates into the locker room, which in turn creates a rather nonchalant mindset. Aside from that, Arizona has to overcome a patchwork offensive line here and the sense we get is that they are a team that is not focused on the task at hand.
Nobody with any football acumen was willing to admit at any point this season that the New Orleans Saints were going to the playoffs. They started 0-3 and have been fighting for their lives ever since -- until Sunday. The one thing you could always count on from Drew Brees was at least one touchdown and possibly several more. He set all-time numbers for consecutive games with at least one TD pass. In the last two games, losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay, Brees has no touchdowns and six interceptions. At a time when the Saints needed to build momentum for a division title run, they gassed out against two legitimate playoff contenders and, at 5-8, they?re done too and are playing for nothing. However, we are in the buy-low business and now that this game means nothing, it would come as no surprise if Brees went off here in the desert. Say what you will about Sean Payton but he at least gives it his all every single week and will not tolerate anyone playing at half speed. We?re always factoring the stakes of a game into the equation by constantly assessing what's in the pot for each team and how each views that reward. Our sense from reading the practice reports all week is that the Saints are hungry and they?re playing to win while the Cardinals are looking to wrap this season up after such high expectations went awry. Saints? outright get this call.
DALLAS -7 over Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers are the hottest team in the NFC. They've won five straight and seven of their last nine after a poor 1-3 start to the season. Despite their recent success, there are cracks in their game and now the spotlight is on them, which is a scenario they rarely thrive in. Jameis Winston is still an inconsistent quarterback. He did not impress last week with just 184 yards passing with no touchdowns against a Saints defense that has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks all season. Tampa's offense has sputtered with just six touchdowns over the last four games. The Bucs are a one-dimensional team that has had to rely on their defense to win games. We often discuss stepping in and out at the right or wrong time. Playing the Bucs here would likely be bad timing, as they have cashed tickets the past five weeks. After being under the radar during this entire five-game winning streak, the Bucs are now getting a ton of attention in this prime time game. This line has been called ?disrespectful?. We agree, but it's not the Bucs who are getting the shaft here, it's the home-town Cowboys.
As word of rookie quarterback Dak Prescott's demise dominated the airwaves, we paid no attention to this nothing story. Prescott could not have looked worse on Sunday Night Football against the Giants after posting season lows across the board. After a poor public performance from Prescott, Tony Romo highlight reels have been rolling on NFL Network, ESPN and every other major sports network this week. Local and national radio hosts have been waiting for the Cowboys' QB controversy all season and it's being milked for every drop. It's easy to play results but let us not forget the Giants looked terrible too and the Cowboys had their chances to win that high profile prime time game. We're not going to overreact to one bad performance. The Cowboys' stock is unusually low for an 11-2 team but this is a ?week-to-week? league and that Sunday night disappointment sticks out in the minds? of most bettors. The best plays weekly often involve overreactions from the previous week?s prime time games. A lot of money was lost on Dallas last week and now they?re giving away seven points to one of the hottest teams in the league. The points may look appealing but aside from this being a strong buy-low, sell high opportunity, Dallas is used to the spotlight, as they are in it every year, win or lose. By contrast, Tampa has to find a way to channel all that outside noise into a strong performance but we wouldn?t trust them for a second. This is a visitor that rarely finds their mojo when the chips are down and this is just another time they?ll have a chance on national television to experience the sweet taste of relevance. We?re suggesting they?ll squander that status immediately.
Saints at Cardinals
Play: Saints +3
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games (4-1 ATS this season), 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus .499 or worse opposition and 7-3 ATS in its last ten games overall. In contrast, Arizona continues to be overvalued by the betting market as the Cardinals are a money-burning 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and 4-10 ATS in their last fourteen home games (3-4 ATS this season).
Both of these teams are basically the walking dead in terms of the playoff picture, but the Cardinals are dealing with a host of injuries that will force head coach Bruce Arians to play a lot of young and untested players.
"Good opportunity for a lot of young guys because they?re going to get a lot of playing time out of necessity," Arians said. "So it?s a great opportunity for them. Look forward to a really solid game by everybody."
Arizona will also be without tackle D.J. Humphries, who suffered a concussion last weekend against the Dolphins and remains in the league protocol. The Cardinals are also dealing with the fallout of wide receiver Michael Floyd's release following an arrest on charges of DUI and disobeying an office in Scottsdale.
Reports indicate that several players were disenchanted about the organization's decision to cut Floyd, including fellow wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald considered Floyd a "brother" and someone he has known since he was 13 years old. "I love him dearly and like any other family member I never turn my back on him no matter what," Fitzgerald said. "I?m going to support him. I saw him yesterday. I?m going to see him again today. It?s important during these times to support people when they?re going through some stuff.?
Finally, Sunday's game holds special meaning for New Orleans running back Tim Hightower, who began his career in Arizona. ?If I could try to put it in a few words ... it means everything,? Hightower said. ?Man, I want to win every game, but this game is special for me. This is where it all started for me. This is the place where it all began. So it?s special.?
There is no question that Hightower will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, and I expect the Saints to get the win for their teammate.
New York Giants -4
The Detroit Lions are probably the single-most overrated team in the NFL this season. Miraculously, they have a 9-4 record despite trailing in the 4th quarter in 12 of their 13 games this season. Matthew Stafford has an NFL-record eight game-winning drives in the 4th quarter or OT this season.
That isn't sustainable, and the Lions are in over their heads this week. The main reason is because Stafford has an injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand that is requiring him to wear a glove. We saw how that worked out against the Bears last week.
After the injury, Stafford threw a red zone interception. Then on their very next drive, he threw a pick-six that gave the Bears the lead. Give Stafford credit for leading the Lions on another game-winning drive after that, but he only completed one pass on the drive. The Lions were aided by penalties, and Stafford scored the deciding TD rushing.
Stafford has been testing out a bunch of different gloves all week to try and find something that feels comfortable. According to reports, nothing feels right. And without Stafford on his 'A' game, the Lions have no shot of beating the Giants this week in a hostile, cold atmosphere on the road in New York this week.
Now Stafford will have to face one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this week. The Giants rank 7th in scoring defense, giving up just 18.8 points per game this year. They have held 12 of their 13 opponents to 24 points or fewer this season, including five of the last seven to 20 or less. They limited the Cowboys to just 7 points and 260 total yards last week while forcing three turnovers.
Detroit is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 road games off two or more consecutive wins. New York is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 6-1 at home this season.
Here's another shocking stat about Stafford. He has only beaten one team on the road in his ENTIRE career that finished the season with a winning record. Well, the Giants are going to finish with a winning record, and they're on a mission here to get a win and inch closer to securing a playoff berth.
49ers at Falcons
Play: Over 51
A non-division NFC clash takes place at 1:00 ET on Sunday in Atlanta, as the Falcons host the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are off a 23-17 home loss to the Jets, which is their 12th straight loss since their Week 1 win over the Rams. The Falcons are off a 42-14 beating of the Rams in which they led 42-0 in the third quarter. I am recommending a play on the OVER.
The Over is a perfect 6-0 in Atlanta's home games this season. These games went Over the posted totals by an average of 12.5 points per contest. There have been an average of 63 points scored in Falcons home games this season. 33.5 of those points belong to Atlanta. They should be able to exceed that average against this pathetic 49ers defense, which is DEAD LAST in the NFL in points allowed per game (30.2) and yards allowed per game (415.3).
If you throw out the 'Niners' road game in Chicago from two weeks ago (adverse weather conditions), the Over is 4-1 in their other five road games. Those five games went Over by an average of 12.7 points per contest. The 49ers allowed 36.4 points in those games.
As long as Chip Kelly is leading the 49ers, they will play at a break-neck speed on offense. That serves us well because: A) It leads to more offensive plays per game; and B ) It exposes an already lousy defense by keeping them on the field for more-than-average plays.
The Falcons just might break 40 points again this week. QB Matt Ryan will have no trouble spreading the ball around if WR Julio Jones can't go. There is also the very good possibility of Atlanta having a big fourth-quarter lead (they are a 2-TD favorite, after all), and giving up a garbage-time TD or two. I'm expecting this game to end up around 58 total points.
The Packers are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between with Chicago, including six straight covers in Chicago.
The Packers have covered in 10 of their last 13 December/January games, including a 2-0 ATS mark this season.
In his career, Andrew Luck is 21-5 ATS in games following a Colts loss (in same season).
The total has gone over in all six of the Colts' games away from home this season. Dating back to last season, the over has hit in Luck's last eight road starts.
The total has gone under in seven straight Lions games and five straight Giants games.
The Texans are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine divisional games.
The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
The total has gone over in 11 of the Falcons' 13 games this season, including in all six played in Atlanta.
Under Gary Kubiak, the Broncos are 8-2-1 ATS with eight outright wins as an underdog. As a home underdog under Kubiak, the Broncos are 4-0 ATS with four outright wins, and two of those upsets came against the Patriots last season.
Tom Brady is 2-7 ATS in nine career games at Denver (also 2-7 straight up).
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers-The underdog has covered in 14 of the last 15 meetings between these teams.
I am siding with the Kings in this matchup. The Mavericks are dealing with too many injuries and they simply can?t generate much scoring right now. The Kings have Cousins playing great basketball along with Darren Collison and Rudy Gay if he plays, so they should score points. The Kings are average defensively, but they will be going up against the lowest scoring team in the NBA, so they should contain the Mavs scoring. Sacramento crushed Dallas 120-89 in Dallas a few weeks ago and I think they will be able to get the job done in this one as well. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Dallas, and that trend should continue in this one.
Toronto has to be disappointed with their defensive performance in the loss to Atlanta. It?s a safe bet that you won?t see that kind of showing here. Orlando has shown some flashes of offensive competence lately, which is a nice change of pace for the Magic. Still, the Magic doesn?t have the depth in their rotation that Toronto does. The Raptors get production up and down their rotation, which leads them to the victory here.
Celtics -4
Boston (14-12, 13-12 ATS) will play five of its next seven on the road including a visit to Cleveland. The Celtics beat the Heat for the fourth straight time 112-104 on November 28 as Isiah Thomas scored 25 points and dished out eight assists.
Miami (9-18, 14-13 ATS)won the first two games of its season-high six-game homestand before falling 102-98 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night.Goran Drajic had a double-double against the Clippers with 21 points and 11 assists and is averaging 21.points and 8.3 assists in a four-game span.
The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in the last seven series meetings.
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. the NBA Southeast Division and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.
Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last five overall and 4-1 ATS last five against the Eastern Conference. However the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five against the Atlantic Division.
The two teams are a combined 31-22 to the UNDER. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 series meetings.
The Celtics are 24-7 to the low side when playing on one day?s rest while the Heat are 5-1 in their last six in that same scenario.
Columbus vs. Vancouver
Pick: Columbus
Everything is going right for the Blue Jackets right now, who won their eighth straight on Friday night in Calgary. That puts them one victory away from tying the franchise record of nine straight set late in the 2014-2015 season. And the way they're playing right now, it doesn't look like there's much that can stop them - certainly not the Canucks. Columbus hasn't just been winning, they've been dominating the opposition. Consider that during these past eight games, the Jackets have out-scored their opponents by a total of 28-11. And the scary thing for the teams they play right now is that you can't focus on just one or two Jackets players in an effort to stem thwart them. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is the likely team MVP, but from an offensive standpoint, there are just too many weapons for opponents to consider. The Canucks come into this game having won their last one against a depleted Lightning squad that is about as diametrically opposite from the Jackets right now as humanly possible. A repeat of the victory on Friday seems highly unlikely, especially when you consider that Vancouver is 1-8 in its last nine following a win.
Gonzaga at Tennessee
Pick: Under
A good battle between a pair of teams loaded with talent and strong defense. Gonzaga can play any style and is 17-5 under the total in non-conference tilts. Tennessee is on a 16-5-2 run under the total, plus 18-7-2 under in non-conference games.
