Kansas City Chiefs -2? (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs Under 45 (-110)
Green Bay Packers +5? (-110)
Houston Rockets -13 (-110)
SMU -16? (-110)
Iowa/Northwestern Over 147? (-110)
Vancouver Canucks -125
Anaheim Ducks -1? (+180)
1 unit bet pays 196
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Green Bay at Dallas
Play: Under 52.5
These are two of the slower-paced teams in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers likely won't be as strong offensively here in this one as it looks like they will be without their top WR Jordy Nelson in this game and his loss is huge. There's a slight inflation right now on Green Bay Packers totals also considering that they've went 'over' in each of their past 5 games, BUT keep in mind that their last two contests EACH would have went 'under' had they BOTH hadn't had a Hail Mary touchdown in the game. The Packers offense has been getting all the credit for the current 7-game winning streak but the defense has also had a lot to do with the current as they've allowed 10 points per game less in those last 7 games compared to what they had allowed before it. For as much hype as the Dallas offense got this season, they ended up being were of more of an 'under' team than an 'over' this year, including going below the total in 9 of their last 13 games.
Steelers vs. Chiefs
Play: Steelers +2
The Pittsburgh Steelers are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. They went on a four-game losing streak midseason, but they have reeled off eight straight victories since. They key has been getting their Big 3 on the field all at the same time in Ben Roethlisberger, Le?Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.
In fact, last week?s game against Miami was the first time that Big Ben, Bell and Brown have all been available at the same time for a playoff game. And the result was a good one. The Steelers thumped the Dolphins 30-12. Brown caught two touchdowns from Roethlisberger in the first quarter to give the Steelers a 14-0 lead that they wouldn?t relinquish. Bell tacked on two rushing touchdowns later on to seal it.
Not only are the Steelers winning on the scoreboard, they are also dominating the box scores, which is the true sign of a good team. They have actually outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents. The only exception was in Week 17 when they rested their Big 3 and had nothing to play for against the Cleveland Browns. They still managed to win that game to keep their momentum going, and this team feels like they are unbeatable right now.
Kansas City may be 12-4, but it has the numbers of a 7-9 team and one that is clearly not one of the best teams in the NFL. In fact, the Chiefs rank 28th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 25.5 yards per game on the season. Only the Dolphins, Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some pretty poor company.
Kansas City has been winning with smoke and mirrors this season. The Chiefs lead the NFL in turnover differential, which has been the biggest key. They also have more points scored from their defense and special teams than any other team in the league. While that kind of stuff can happen during the regular season, it doesn?t happen against elite teams like the Steelers.
We saw that first-hand earlier this season when the Steelers stomped the Chiefs 43-14 at Heinz Field. I was all over the Steelers in that game as one of my biggest bets of the season. Roethlisberger finished 22-of-27 passing for 300 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, while Bell rushed for 144 yards on only 18 carries in the win. The Chiefs trailed 36-0 after three quarters and scored all 14 of their points in garbage time in the 4th.
Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) ? revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. If this were a regular season game, then I?d think more of the revenge factor working in favor of the Chiefs. But the Steelers will be just as motivated to win this game, and they have the tools to do it now that almost everyone is healthy.
Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Steelers are 9-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 playoff games. The Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 12-3-3 ATS in its last 18 January games. Kansas City is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, and 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games.
Packers 11-6 at Cowboys 13-3
Funny game, this football is. The Cowboys were a 4-12 team a year ago, good for last place in the NFC East. Then a serious pre-season injury to star quarterback Tony Romo appeared to doom the team for this campaign. After all, Dallas would be forced to go with a rookie fourth-round pick at QB, alongside a rookie running back. Then, as football miracles go, one occurred as QB Dak Prescott had an unprecedented year (3,367 yards passing, 23-4 TD-INT, six rushing TDs, 104.9 passer rating), RB Ezekiel Elliott was as good or better than advertised after leading the league in rushing with 1,631 yards, and the ?Boys ended up with the best record in the NFC. Accompanying those two, Dallas offers a strong offensive line, a top rated receiver and an improved defence. But it?s still not enough to be lined up as a significant favourite here. Prescott is a 4?-point favourite over the best pure passer in the NFL. And it just so happens that Aaron Rodgers is on fire. After his team had some early season struggles, the two-time MVP threw for 19 majors and zero interceptions in Green Bay?s final seven games while completing almost 70% of his passes. Rodgers? hot hand carried over to the playoffs last week when torching the supposedly defensively sound Giants for four majors and 362 yards passing. Do those numbers justify receiving the most amount of points the Packers have been offered all year? We hardly think so. Playing away from Lambeau may concern some but, to us, it is just another positive as Rodgers has been excellent in enclosed stadiums, covering five of previous seven in controlled environments. Going back to 2011, rookie QBs are 0-6 against non-rookie QBs (in the playoffs). It?s not like the Cowboys are infallible. Dallas covered just one of its final six games, all as favourites. This underdog offers too much to be ignored. TAKING: PACKERS +4?
Steelers 12-5 at Chiefs 12-4
Turnabout is fair play. So when the Steelers redeemed themselves with a relatively easy win over the Dolphins last week after Miami had trounced Pittsburgh earlier in the regular season, we won?t be surprised to see the Chiefs return the favour here after receiving a 43-14 thumping to the Steelers back in early October. Of course, with Pittsburgh?s arsenal of offensive talent, a tightly fought contest is expected. But just needing a narrow win to get a cover here is our preferred recommendation. Kansas City has had an added week to prepare. If Andy Reid?s history is worthwhile in such situations, then the Chiefs hold a strong edge. When given an extra week of data to study, the veteran coach owns a 17-2 mark in his team?s return game. That stellar mark has spilled into the playoffs as well with Reid coached teams a perfect 4-0 when awaiting a wild-card winner. History aside, we like K.C.?s ball-hawking ability as the defence was tied for the league lead in takeaway ratio at +16 this season while leading solely in interceptions with 18. While we respect QB Ben Roethlisberger?s throwing abilities, we?ve also seen him make too many bonehead throws in his day, including a pair against the Dolphins last week, luckily without consequence. We also don?t know how badly Ben?s foot injury. Even if the foot is not an issue, Roethlisberger has been far less effective on the road than at home this season. As a visitor, Big Ben is completing just 59.4% of his passes with nine tds, eight interceptions and a 78.4 passer rating compared to 70.8% completion rate, 20 TDs, just five picks and a 116.7 passer rating at Heinz Field. The first meeting got away early on the Chiefs due to turnovers on a rainy day in Pittsburgh. Dynamic Tyreek Hill was both figuratively and literally getting his feet wet that day. He?s been a game-changer since and when you combine his speed and big play ability to go along with KC?s opportunistic defence and revved up home crowd, Kansas City gets the nod. TAKING: CHIEFS ?1?
Steelers @ Chiefs
Pick: Under 44
The Kansas City Chiefs have used some smoke and mirrors this season, managing to pull off a tremendous 12-4 campaign. Why smoke and mirrors? They were actually out-gained from the line of scrimmage by 26 yards per game. Perhaps the most telling stat of all shows the bend-but-don't-break defense the Chiefs have been all season, especially at home. They finished their schedule with opponents generating one point for every 23.2 yards gained at home, good for the best number in the league. The Pittsburgh Steelers closed the season with seven straight wins, and the reason is in the defense. Through Week 10, the Steelers allowed 22.9 points per game and three opponents topped the 30-point mark. But from Week 11 on, they allowed 16.6 ppg, and no team reached 30. Pittsburgh?s offense was very pedestrian this season on the road, scoring just 21.6 points per game. Kansas City averaged 23.9 per game at home, while holding opponents to just 15.7 per game in this building. Dating back to last season, the Steelers are 16-7 UNDER when facing a good quarterback (those averaging over 60% completions). And, as head man of the Chiefs, Andy Reid is 20-7 UNDER as a home favorite. I think the outcome of this game is going to be determined on the defensive side of the football.
PACKERS AT COWBOYS
PLAY: COWBOYS -4.5
The red hot Green Bay Packers are heading to Dallas looking to knock off the NFC?s top-seeded Cowboys. This figures to be the heaviest wagering volume game by a decent margin this weekend, and there?s a case to be made for each team. I?ll focus on what I like here that tilts me to the Dallas side.
Aaron Rodgers is playing at an otherworldly level right now, and that makes trying to beat the Packers QB a tall order. But it?s a team game, and injuries to the Rodgers supporting cast could be a real difference maker on Sunday. The likely absence of wideout Jordy Nelson is huge, as his not being on the field is going to be one less headache for the Cowboys defense. The good news for GB is that RB Ty Montgomery is apparently good to go. Green Bay is going to find a way to get its share of points in this game, even against a strong Dallas defense. But I don?t see even the scorching hot Rodgers putting up gigantic numbers.
The Cowboys have sold me. I was skeptical early as to whether the team could play at a high level all season long with rookies in key positions. But they most certainly did so, and I can?t argue with those who believe the Cowboys are now the best team in not only the NFC, but the entire NFL.
The keys for me here as Dallas being well rested, and playing at home against a team they demolished during the regular season. Granted, the Packers have improved dramatically since that initial meeting. But I?m still not sold on their defense and I just don?t see Green Bay being able to contain that lethal rookie combo of Prescott and Elliot.
This is a great betting game as those who will be backing the Pack have plenty of ammunition to support their choice as well. I don?t expect this to be a blowout. But I do see Dallas as the winner and I made this line Cowboys -6. That?s not exactly a monster differential, but it?s enough for me side with the Dallas side minus the points on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 44.5) take the heated grass at Arrowhead on Sunday night in one of the two weekend AFC Divisional playoff games. The league, due to undesirable weather conditions, have moved the early Sunday kickoff from 1:00 p.m. ET to an 8:20 p.m. ET start with the broadcast rights going to NBC.
There is a large amount of history between these two franchises. Most notably the connection of the Pittsburgh coaching staff to the Kansas City organization. Head Mike Tomlin is in his 10th year on the job after taking over for former KC defensive coordinator and now Steelers? legend Bill Cowher. Offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, was the KC head man from 2009 to 2011.
The last time these teams met, the Chiefs were utterly embarrassed , and done so on national television in a game that could be argued as the one Sunday this 2016 season that coach Andy Reid?s group didn?t show up to play. Kansas City was never in the game at the Ketchup Bottle, a contest that saw Reid?s troupe give up big plays in the passing game and commit several unforced errors (turnovers).
The forecast for Kansas City, Missouri, on Sunday is for freezing rain and ice. While the field at Arrowhead is heated and has terrific drainage the weather will mostly effect the fans and their comfort level in the wet and cold conditions. With the time change and the unpleasant conditions will the KC fan base be their usual loud self or will they be sitting on their hands? The Steelers are a cold-weather team, so they?ll be ready for it.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a future Hall of Fame quarterback but his numbers this season outside of Heinz Field have been pedestrian. Big Ben has nine touchdown passes to eight interceptions as a visitor this season. The Steelers contract the best tailback in the game today, that being Le?Veon Bell, who is a patient runner and is deadly as a receiver. For a team that passes the ball 60 percent of the time Bell registered the third-most yards from scrimmage (1,884) in the league despite missing three games due to a suspension. Bell and the Steelers offense make the KC defensive look bad earlier this year. Bell recorded 178 total yards in 23 touches in the Steelers? 43-14 victory over KC in Week 4.
There has been plenty of discussion this year about the Steelers improved performance defensively. D-coordinator Keith Butler had a difficult act to follow replacing future Hall of Fame coach Dick LeBeau. Statistically, the only area that Pittsburgh?s stop-unit showed signs of positive gain in 2016 is in the area of pressuring the quarterback. Butler improved the squad?s sack total from 33 to 48 (third in the NFL) and turnovers created from 21 to 30. The current 3-4 alignment of Butler?s defensive is not the close to the LeBeau blitz-happy scheme. The Steelers protect their slow-ish secondary by playing a lot of two-deep zone which in turn challenges the opposition to run the football. The Steelers still use some of LeBeau?s fire-zone blitzes that send corners and safeties into their opponents backfield but this is a gamble against the short passing, West Coast scheme, of Alex Smith and Andy Reid. The Steelers rank 16th in passing defense (242.6 per game) and 13th in rushing defense (100 yards per game).
Big plays against the Pittsburgh defense have been a common occurrence this year. The Steelers ?D" can be vandalized by speed and that is what the Kansas City offense presents. Butler?s unit has missed 121 tackles, the eighth-most in the league. That means Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West are running backs in a Reid offense that uses short passes that are nothing short of extended handoffs.
Short passes to physical and speedy tight end and leading receiver Travis Kelce in combination with deep threat and sweep specialist Tyreek Hill make what most see as a vanilla KC offensive scheme, uber dangerous. Hill is the only player in league history with at least three receiving, rushing and return (punt/kick) touchdowns in one season.
Quarterback Alex Smith is Reid?s game manager. He doesn?t force balls into tight windows and all of the Chiefs passing plays are timing routes. There is very little improvising by Smith and the offense. His winning percentage and passer ratings when he gets the ball out of his hands in less than 2.5 seconds are phenomenal. Smith has thrown 11 touchdowns against only one interception in five playoff games in the Reid scheme. Hill?s emergence has given Smith the quick hit weapon this offense has needed for the last two years and his ability to go the distance in the return game has been a game changers for the Chiefs, and how the opposition game-plans for this Chiefs team.
The Steelers ran the ball with success a week ago in a big win over the Miami Dolphins. Pittsburgh used six offensive linemen for 21 plays a week ago. If the weather continues to be wet, cold with gusty winds at Arrowhead don?t be surprised if Ben and his unit once again attempt to ground and pound on Sunday night.
Pittsburgh has managed to win eight straight contests and come into this AFC Divisional Round Playoff contest with confidence. They have a roster and quarterback with Super-Bowl experience. However, this team has played poorly, even ugly at times, on the road. A game in Arrowhead presents a number of hurdles for a team that is bound to timing, something Ben and the offensive will be hard pressed to acquire, in a loud and disruptive Arrowhead atmosphere.
Give Andy Reid and his staff two weeks to prepare for an opponent and history tells us it is light?s out. Reid is 16-2 coming off a bye and is 3-0 for his career in divisional-round games with an extra week to prepare.
DALLAS -4? over Green Bay
The Packers have won seven games in a row after disposing of the Giants in a 38-13 win last Sunday at Lambeau Field. That result may look lopsided on paper but had a break or two gone the Giants way, the outcome may have been quite different. The big play getting all the headlines was a 42-yard prayer that landed in the arms of Packers receiver Randall Cobb in the end zone to end the first half. We read this week that Rodgers has ?perfected? the Hail Mary, which is ridiculous. We often preach that most of these games come down to ?in-game variance? and that play was a prime example. Odell Beckham Jr. dropping at least two key passes that were right in his arms is another example. It's a good thing this game kicks off at 4:40 PM EST this afternoon because if they waited any longer, Aaron Rodgers might walk on water. Don't get us wrong, Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league but he is only one man. He cannot block, run, catch or play defense. Each one of those areas is a concern for Green Bay coming into this game. The Packers rank 15th in sacks allowed which is tied with the Jets and Buccaneers and it?s not impressive company. Green Bay's running game ranks 20th and it finished the regular season 22nd in total defense. The Packers recent run and Rodgers' pedigree has the Packers getting a little too much credit here.
The Cowboys finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, which was tops in the NFC. Dallas locked up their spot after Week 15, which was the last time it played a meaningful down of football. We've heard the case against the Cowboys. Their 26th ranked pass defense will get shredded by Rodgers who is out for 'revenge' after a Week 5 loss to Dallas and who is playing at another level right now. We're not buying it. The Cowboys dominated the Packers in that first meeting and we're not sure what's changed. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott has only gotten better with an entire season of play under his belt. This is a ?what have you done for me lately? league and with the Cowboys coming off a bye after sitting their starters in Week 17, we can understand the hesitation to back them here. It's much easier to lay your hard earned dollars down on a proven commodity like Aaron Rodgers over an unknown one in the playoffs in Dak Prescott. We're not concerned because Dak has been thrown into pressure situations all season long, he?s been under the immense media spotlight and he?s risen to the occasion every single time. Unlike the Pack, the Cowboys can run the ball, which provides them with the ability to sustain long drives and keep the clock moving while keeping Rodgers on the sidelines in the process. Green Bay cannot run the ball at all, which means when they do strike, it?ll likely be quick strikes, thus forcing their defense back on the field. Figure Green Bay?s defense to be on the field a whole lot more than the ?Boys defense and by the fourth quarter, that figures to take a big toll. This market has had a hard time all season buying the Cowboys great success and they keep proving tghe market wrong. We expect that to continue here.
KANSAS CITY -3 over Pittsburgh
Back in Week 4 in Pittsburgh on a Sunday night in prime time, the Steelers just went nuts on the Chiefs. They passed for 300 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 151 yards in Le'Veon Bell's first game back from suspension. Since losing to the Cowboys in Week 10, the Steelers have been racking up the wins with at least 24 points per game and usually holding opponents to only two touchdowns or fewer. Indeed, it would be easy to make a case for the Steelers, especially when considering our disdain for Andy Reid and Alex Smith but value is value and after considering all the angles, we must conclude that the Chiefs are underpriced. Though by no means a certainty, four of the last five years have seen one home team lose in this round and now the Chiefs are not even getting the standard three points for home field. There are other things at work here too.
While Le'Veon Bell is absolutely a beast, Tyreek Hill has become a much bigger factor now because he does everything. Hill is as good as anyone right now and he can score or pick up big yardage during kicks, out of the backfield or on a short pitch and catch. Remember, the Chiefs have only lost twice since getting whacked in Pittsburgh and both losses were by just two points. K.C. also went into Atlanta and defeated the Falcons.
Andy Reid may have us scratching our heads during this game once or twice but Mike Tomlin WILL have us scratching our heads for sure. We may as well call Tomlin ?The Fourth Down Roulette Wheel?. Not even Andy Reid makes more baffling fourth down choices than this man. Tomlin also goes for two points more than any man on the planet and he?s mismanaged that in the playoffs before when a missed two-pointer allowed the Bengals to come all the way back from 15 down. As always, some other moron team comes drooling along to make the Steelers look good when what they really deserve to be thrown into a trash compactor and that team this year was the Dolphins. Then there?s Big Ben, who ends every season with a playoff loss because half his vital organs and joints have stopped working by now and this year is no different. Roethlisberger will get hit and knocked down before trotting his dazed ass back out onto the field to throw the inevitable, decisive interception. That?s the Steelers for you and they are also a team that does not travel well. When the Steelers are forced out of their region or comfort zone, they just aren?t the same team. Pittsburgh responds well to being at home but playing in hostile environments when the crowd hates you is a different animal and we don?t trust the Steelers for a second in that regard.
Let?s also not forget about Andy Reid?s 19-2 record off a bye. That?s significant. Only Bill Belichick is in the same ballpark so give Reid an extra week to prepare and the proof is in the pudding that the chances of his team winning are far greater than losing. In the playoffs, home teams win often. This year, the host is 6-0 so far but this host is priced like the game is being played on a neutral field. Arrowhead is an extremely difficult venue to play in for visiting teams and we?re almost sure that Alex Smith, Andy Reid and the rest of the Chiefs will make far fewer mistakes than the Steelers. If the game is decided by turnovers, we love our chances even more.
Houston at Brooklyn
Play: Houston -12?
Under different circumstances, this might be a good spot for the Nets. Had the Rockets still been on a big winning streak, as they recently were, this is a game that they could easily have taken for granted. Thats essentially what happened when these teams met at Houston a month ago. The Rockets were off a double-digit win and in the middle of a winning streak. Laying -13, they only beat Brooklyn by four points.
Things set up differently this time though. Off back-to-back losses, for the first time all season, the Rockets figure to be all business. They had yesterday off and they don't play tomorrow. There's no reason to hold back. Even factoring in last month's non-cover against these same Nets, the Rockets are an outstanding 15-4 ATS (18-1 SU) against sub-500 teams. They're also 4-1 SU/ATS their last five, off an upset loss.
Pistons vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +2
The Lakers were crushed by the Clippers at Staples Center last night, but they should have a decent chance to get back on track at home versus the Pistons tonight. Detroit is really struggling, playing their final game of a five game road trip, coming off three straight losses. Head Coach Stan Van Gundy doesn't sound very optimistic about his team's play in recent weeks: "We can't stop anybody. We just can't," Van Gundy lamented. "I mean for the first 21 games we were the second-best defensive team in the league and now we are one of the worst. I'm frustrated. Not with our players, I'm frustrated with myself that I can't figure this out. I mean, we literally can't stop anyone, ever." The Lakers are the healthier of the two teams, as the Pistons are missing Caldwell-Pope and Leuer. Luol Deng was rested last night, and should be ready to go here in the second game of a back to back. Detroit is 0-6 ATS in their last six visits to the Staples Center, and this looks like a tough spot for them to break that trend.
Chicago @ Memphis
Pick: Chicago
The Chicago Bulls have won three straight and Jimmy Butler is playing at an All-Star level. The Bulls will travel to Memphis to face the Grizzlies on Sunday night. The Bulls? wins were big ones too over Charlotte, Toronto, and Cleveland, three of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference.
In the win over Cleveland, Butler scored 10 of his 20 points in the fourth quarter and he erupted for 42 in an overtime win over Toronto. Butler is 10th in the league in scoring averaging 25.6 points per game and is a likely All-Star. Teammate Dwayne Wade is scoring 18.6 per game and point guard Rajon Rondo is dishing out 7.1 assists per game. Chicago is currently seventh in the East and can make a move on Indiana and Charlotte which are both currently 20-18.
Out West, Memphis is in the fifth spot in the conference standings and has won two straight including a very impressive 128-119 win over Golden State in Oakland. Pairing Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the lineup seems to be working out as evidenced in the victory over the Warriors. Gasol scored 23 points while Randolph shot 12-of-17, scored 27 points, and grabbed 11 rebounds. Point guard Mike Conley adds over 18 points a game and the Memphis defense is one of the best in the NBA. The Grizzlies hold opponents to 98.6 points per game. If they can slow down Butler and Wade, they will have a great shot at a win on Sunday.
Iowa vs. Northwestern
Play: Iowa +6?
Northwestern continues to chase the ever elusive Big Dance appearance and have compiled a 14-4 SU record. But I believe the line has caught up to the Wildcats in this one. Northwestern still plays a decent brand of defensive basketball, but they aren't exactly "dead-eyes" on the offensive end. They've averaged just 66.8 ppg in their last four conference games on 41.7% shooting, including 28.6% from behind the arc. Iowa's playing a better brand of basketball of late, winning three of four, including a win over Purdue last time out. In fact, they're a 3-point OT loss away from a 4-0 conference streak. Peter Jok is on fire for the Hawkeyes and backcourt mate Jordan Bohannon is a solid disher, allowing him to hang with the Northwestern backcourt and create solid looks on the offensive end. Iowa enters on an 8-2 SU run overall, and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine against the Wildcats.
Iowa at Northwestern
Pick: Over
Iowa has offensive talent, but going with so many freshmen means they are not a strong defensive team, especially on the road. Iowa is 4-1-1 over the total on the road and 13-6 over in Sunday games. Northwestern is home from a two-game trip and the offense clicks better at home.
Georgia Tech vs. NC State
Play: NC State -7?
I have no problem laying this big number on the Wolfpack at home. NC State is a perfect 10-0 at home this season and we know we are going to get a big time effort from them in this one, as they come in off back-to-back road losses. Last time the Wolfpack hosted a team in conference play, they laid a beating on Virginia Tech in a 104-78 win. Georgia Tech comes in off a 75-63 upset win at home over Clemson as a 10 point dog and are primed for a letdown and are just 1-3 in road games this year. Yellow Jackets are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off a home win by 10 or more, while the Wolfpack are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off an upset loss as a favorites.
ANAHEIM -1? +193 over St. Louis
This is the first meeting of the year between these two so there really isn?t any bad blood brewing yet but there are some convincing arguments to get behind the Ducks here and it starts with the goaltenders. Jake Allen had the day off yesterday when the Blue Notes defeated San Jose, 4-0 but Allen will be back where he doesn?t belong today, that being in the starter?s role. Allen has been pulled three times in his last five starts. He was yanked for a second straight game Thursday night after he allowed three goals on 15 shots. Allen has five wins in 15 road starts. His road save percentage is .882, which is dead last in the NHL among qualified starters.
By contrast, John Gibson is on fire. Gibson has posted save percentages of .971, 1.000, .944, 1.000 and .944 in five of his last six starts. Overall, Anaheim has allowed a mere five goals against over its last six games! That bodes well here because St. Louis has fired away 26, 22, 17, 22 and 23 shots on net respectively in their last five games. Give a big edge to the Ducks in goal and in current form.
Both teams will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs but here?s what sticks out to us. The Blues played Los Angeles and San Jose over that span while the Ducks barely broke a sweat in two victories over Arizona and Colorado. Finally, St. Louis got taken out by San Jose in last year?s playoffs. The Sharks did a number on the Blues by beating them in six games but the last two games of that series were blowout wins by the Sharks by scores of 6-2 and 5-2. San Jose also had a 4-0 win in St. Louis during that same series. St. Louis was a motivated team last night that was intent on sending back a message and they accomplished that. The Blues figure to be so much more spent here and perhaps less interested too. If you are not 100% against the Ducks, trouble will follow and that?s precisely how we see this game going down.
Minnesota at Chicago
Play: Chicago -123
Tonight the Red Hot Minnesota Wild go to Chicago to take on the Blackhawks as the top 2 teams in the Western Conference face each other for the first time this year. Minnesota has been the hottest team in the NHL winning 16 out of their last 18 contests but come into Chicago after playing last night in Dallas. This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights which should give the rested Blackhawks the advantage tonight. This will be Chicago's second game in 5 days. HC Joel Quenneville is going to be some ugly as Chicago took a bad beatdown on Friday night losing 6-0 to Washington. Knowing Quenneville like we do practice yesterday had to be brutal for the Hawks. We see Chicago come out with a purpose tonight especially since Minnesota beat the Blackhawks in all 5 regular season games last year. Revenge will be sweet as the Blackhawks hand the Wild a rare loss tonight at the United Center.
UFC featherweight matchup between Yair Rodriguez and BJ Penn. It's a hefty price, but as one UFC-insider told me yesterday, Penn doesn't stand a chance "unless (his coach) Greg Jackson is Jesus Christ."
Penn hasn't won a fight since 2010, and now he steps into the octagon against a kid whose star is on the rise?
I suppose Penn's experience in jiu jitsu would give Rodriguez a problem on the mat, but I don't know if he can get the younger, stronger fighter to the ground.
Rodriguez still hasn?t suffered a loss in the UFC, and this isn't going to be the match he does. On the contrary, this should be the match that retires Penn once and for all.
And if that price is too high for you, consider taking Joe Lauzon (-120) over Marcin Held inthe lightweight bout.
5* YAIR RODRIGUEZ
Pittsburgh Steelers/Kansas City Chiefs Under 45 (-110)
Green Bay Packers +5? (-110)
Houston Rockets -13 (-110)
SMU -16? (-110)
Iowa/Northwestern Over 147? (-110)
Vancouver Canucks -125
Anaheim Ducks -1? (+180)
1 unit bet pays 196
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Green Bay at Dallas
Play: Under 52.5
These are two of the slower-paced teams in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers likely won't be as strong offensively here in this one as it looks like they will be without their top WR Jordy Nelson in this game and his loss is huge. There's a slight inflation right now on Green Bay Packers totals also considering that they've went 'over' in each of their past 5 games, BUT keep in mind that their last two contests EACH would have went 'under' had they BOTH hadn't had a Hail Mary touchdown in the game. The Packers offense has been getting all the credit for the current 7-game winning streak but the defense has also had a lot to do with the current as they've allowed 10 points per game less in those last 7 games compared to what they had allowed before it. For as much hype as the Dallas offense got this season, they ended up being were of more of an 'under' team than an 'over' this year, including going below the total in 9 of their last 13 games.
Steelers vs. Chiefs
Play: Steelers +2
The Pittsburgh Steelers are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. They went on a four-game losing streak midseason, but they have reeled off eight straight victories since. They key has been getting their Big 3 on the field all at the same time in Ben Roethlisberger, Le?Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.
In fact, last week?s game against Miami was the first time that Big Ben, Bell and Brown have all been available at the same time for a playoff game. And the result was a good one. The Steelers thumped the Dolphins 30-12. Brown caught two touchdowns from Roethlisberger in the first quarter to give the Steelers a 14-0 lead that they wouldn?t relinquish. Bell tacked on two rushing touchdowns later on to seal it.
Not only are the Steelers winning on the scoreboard, they are also dominating the box scores, which is the true sign of a good team. They have actually outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents. The only exception was in Week 17 when they rested their Big 3 and had nothing to play for against the Cleveland Browns. They still managed to win that game to keep their momentum going, and this team feels like they are unbeatable right now.
Kansas City may be 12-4, but it has the numbers of a 7-9 team and one that is clearly not one of the best teams in the NFL. In fact, the Chiefs rank 28th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 25.5 yards per game on the season. Only the Dolphins, Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some pretty poor company.
Kansas City has been winning with smoke and mirrors this season. The Chiefs lead the NFL in turnover differential, which has been the biggest key. They also have more points scored from their defense and special teams than any other team in the league. While that kind of stuff can happen during the regular season, it doesn?t happen against elite teams like the Steelers.
We saw that first-hand earlier this season when the Steelers stomped the Chiefs 43-14 at Heinz Field. I was all over the Steelers in that game as one of my biggest bets of the season. Roethlisberger finished 22-of-27 passing for 300 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, while Bell rushed for 144 yards on only 18 carries in the win. The Chiefs trailed 36-0 after three quarters and scored all 14 of their points in garbage time in the 4th.
Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) ? revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. If this were a regular season game, then I?d think more of the revenge factor working in favor of the Chiefs. But the Steelers will be just as motivated to win this game, and they have the tools to do it now that almost everyone is healthy.
Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Steelers are 9-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 playoff games. The Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 12-3-3 ATS in its last 18 January games. Kansas City is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, and 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games.
Packers 11-6 at Cowboys 13-3
Funny game, this football is. The Cowboys were a 4-12 team a year ago, good for last place in the NFC East. Then a serious pre-season injury to star quarterback Tony Romo appeared to doom the team for this campaign. After all, Dallas would be forced to go with a rookie fourth-round pick at QB, alongside a rookie running back. Then, as football miracles go, one occurred as QB Dak Prescott had an unprecedented year (3,367 yards passing, 23-4 TD-INT, six rushing TDs, 104.9 passer rating), RB Ezekiel Elliott was as good or better than advertised after leading the league in rushing with 1,631 yards, and the ?Boys ended up with the best record in the NFC. Accompanying those two, Dallas offers a strong offensive line, a top rated receiver and an improved defence. But it?s still not enough to be lined up as a significant favourite here. Prescott is a 4?-point favourite over the best pure passer in the NFL. And it just so happens that Aaron Rodgers is on fire. After his team had some early season struggles, the two-time MVP threw for 19 majors and zero interceptions in Green Bay?s final seven games while completing almost 70% of his passes. Rodgers? hot hand carried over to the playoffs last week when torching the supposedly defensively sound Giants for four majors and 362 yards passing. Do those numbers justify receiving the most amount of points the Packers have been offered all year? We hardly think so. Playing away from Lambeau may concern some but, to us, it is just another positive as Rodgers has been excellent in enclosed stadiums, covering five of previous seven in controlled environments. Going back to 2011, rookie QBs are 0-6 against non-rookie QBs (in the playoffs). It?s not like the Cowboys are infallible. Dallas covered just one of its final six games, all as favourites. This underdog offers too much to be ignored. TAKING: PACKERS +4?
Steelers 12-5 at Chiefs 12-4
Turnabout is fair play. So when the Steelers redeemed themselves with a relatively easy win over the Dolphins last week after Miami had trounced Pittsburgh earlier in the regular season, we won?t be surprised to see the Chiefs return the favour here after receiving a 43-14 thumping to the Steelers back in early October. Of course, with Pittsburgh?s arsenal of offensive talent, a tightly fought contest is expected. But just needing a narrow win to get a cover here is our preferred recommendation. Kansas City has had an added week to prepare. If Andy Reid?s history is worthwhile in such situations, then the Chiefs hold a strong edge. When given an extra week of data to study, the veteran coach owns a 17-2 mark in his team?s return game. That stellar mark has spilled into the playoffs as well with Reid coached teams a perfect 4-0 when awaiting a wild-card winner. History aside, we like K.C.?s ball-hawking ability as the defence was tied for the league lead in takeaway ratio at +16 this season while leading solely in interceptions with 18. While we respect QB Ben Roethlisberger?s throwing abilities, we?ve also seen him make too many bonehead throws in his day, including a pair against the Dolphins last week, luckily without consequence. We also don?t know how badly Ben?s foot injury. Even if the foot is not an issue, Roethlisberger has been far less effective on the road than at home this season. As a visitor, Big Ben is completing just 59.4% of his passes with nine tds, eight interceptions and a 78.4 passer rating compared to 70.8% completion rate, 20 TDs, just five picks and a 116.7 passer rating at Heinz Field. The first meeting got away early on the Chiefs due to turnovers on a rainy day in Pittsburgh. Dynamic Tyreek Hill was both figuratively and literally getting his feet wet that day. He?s been a game-changer since and when you combine his speed and big play ability to go along with KC?s opportunistic defence and revved up home crowd, Kansas City gets the nod. TAKING: CHIEFS ?1?
Steelers @ Chiefs
Pick: Under 44
The Kansas City Chiefs have used some smoke and mirrors this season, managing to pull off a tremendous 12-4 campaign. Why smoke and mirrors? They were actually out-gained from the line of scrimmage by 26 yards per game. Perhaps the most telling stat of all shows the bend-but-don't-break defense the Chiefs have been all season, especially at home. They finished their schedule with opponents generating one point for every 23.2 yards gained at home, good for the best number in the league. The Pittsburgh Steelers closed the season with seven straight wins, and the reason is in the defense. Through Week 10, the Steelers allowed 22.9 points per game and three opponents topped the 30-point mark. But from Week 11 on, they allowed 16.6 ppg, and no team reached 30. Pittsburgh?s offense was very pedestrian this season on the road, scoring just 21.6 points per game. Kansas City averaged 23.9 per game at home, while holding opponents to just 15.7 per game in this building. Dating back to last season, the Steelers are 16-7 UNDER when facing a good quarterback (those averaging over 60% completions). And, as head man of the Chiefs, Andy Reid is 20-7 UNDER as a home favorite. I think the outcome of this game is going to be determined on the defensive side of the football.
PACKERS AT COWBOYS
PLAY: COWBOYS -4.5
The red hot Green Bay Packers are heading to Dallas looking to knock off the NFC?s top-seeded Cowboys. This figures to be the heaviest wagering volume game by a decent margin this weekend, and there?s a case to be made for each team. I?ll focus on what I like here that tilts me to the Dallas side.
Aaron Rodgers is playing at an otherworldly level right now, and that makes trying to beat the Packers QB a tall order. But it?s a team game, and injuries to the Rodgers supporting cast could be a real difference maker on Sunday. The likely absence of wideout Jordy Nelson is huge, as his not being on the field is going to be one less headache for the Cowboys defense. The good news for GB is that RB Ty Montgomery is apparently good to go. Green Bay is going to find a way to get its share of points in this game, even against a strong Dallas defense. But I don?t see even the scorching hot Rodgers putting up gigantic numbers.
The Cowboys have sold me. I was skeptical early as to whether the team could play at a high level all season long with rookies in key positions. But they most certainly did so, and I can?t argue with those who believe the Cowboys are now the best team in not only the NFC, but the entire NFL.
The keys for me here as Dallas being well rested, and playing at home against a team they demolished during the regular season. Granted, the Packers have improved dramatically since that initial meeting. But I?m still not sold on their defense and I just don?t see Green Bay being able to contain that lethal rookie combo of Prescott and Elliot.
This is a great betting game as those who will be backing the Pack have plenty of ammunition to support their choice as well. I don?t expect this to be a blowout. But I do see Dallas as the winner and I made this line Cowboys -6. That?s not exactly a monster differential, but it?s enough for me side with the Dallas side minus the points on Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 44.5) take the heated grass at Arrowhead on Sunday night in one of the two weekend AFC Divisional playoff games. The league, due to undesirable weather conditions, have moved the early Sunday kickoff from 1:00 p.m. ET to an 8:20 p.m. ET start with the broadcast rights going to NBC.
There is a large amount of history between these two franchises. Most notably the connection of the Pittsburgh coaching staff to the Kansas City organization. Head Mike Tomlin is in his 10th year on the job after taking over for former KC defensive coordinator and now Steelers? legend Bill Cowher. Offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, was the KC head man from 2009 to 2011.
The last time these teams met, the Chiefs were utterly embarrassed , and done so on national television in a game that could be argued as the one Sunday this 2016 season that coach Andy Reid?s group didn?t show up to play. Kansas City was never in the game at the Ketchup Bottle, a contest that saw Reid?s troupe give up big plays in the passing game and commit several unforced errors (turnovers).
The forecast for Kansas City, Missouri, on Sunday is for freezing rain and ice. While the field at Arrowhead is heated and has terrific drainage the weather will mostly effect the fans and their comfort level in the wet and cold conditions. With the time change and the unpleasant conditions will the KC fan base be their usual loud self or will they be sitting on their hands? The Steelers are a cold-weather team, so they?ll be ready for it.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a future Hall of Fame quarterback but his numbers this season outside of Heinz Field have been pedestrian. Big Ben has nine touchdown passes to eight interceptions as a visitor this season. The Steelers contract the best tailback in the game today, that being Le?Veon Bell, who is a patient runner and is deadly as a receiver. For a team that passes the ball 60 percent of the time Bell registered the third-most yards from scrimmage (1,884) in the league despite missing three games due to a suspension. Bell and the Steelers offense make the KC defensive look bad earlier this year. Bell recorded 178 total yards in 23 touches in the Steelers? 43-14 victory over KC in Week 4.
There has been plenty of discussion this year about the Steelers improved performance defensively. D-coordinator Keith Butler had a difficult act to follow replacing future Hall of Fame coach Dick LeBeau. Statistically, the only area that Pittsburgh?s stop-unit showed signs of positive gain in 2016 is in the area of pressuring the quarterback. Butler improved the squad?s sack total from 33 to 48 (third in the NFL) and turnovers created from 21 to 30. The current 3-4 alignment of Butler?s defensive is not the close to the LeBeau blitz-happy scheme. The Steelers protect their slow-ish secondary by playing a lot of two-deep zone which in turn challenges the opposition to run the football. The Steelers still use some of LeBeau?s fire-zone blitzes that send corners and safeties into their opponents backfield but this is a gamble against the short passing, West Coast scheme, of Alex Smith and Andy Reid. The Steelers rank 16th in passing defense (242.6 per game) and 13th in rushing defense (100 yards per game).
Big plays against the Pittsburgh defense have been a common occurrence this year. The Steelers ?D" can be vandalized by speed and that is what the Kansas City offense presents. Butler?s unit has missed 121 tackles, the eighth-most in the league. That means Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West are running backs in a Reid offense that uses short passes that are nothing short of extended handoffs.
Short passes to physical and speedy tight end and leading receiver Travis Kelce in combination with deep threat and sweep specialist Tyreek Hill make what most see as a vanilla KC offensive scheme, uber dangerous. Hill is the only player in league history with at least three receiving, rushing and return (punt/kick) touchdowns in one season.
Quarterback Alex Smith is Reid?s game manager. He doesn?t force balls into tight windows and all of the Chiefs passing plays are timing routes. There is very little improvising by Smith and the offense. His winning percentage and passer ratings when he gets the ball out of his hands in less than 2.5 seconds are phenomenal. Smith has thrown 11 touchdowns against only one interception in five playoff games in the Reid scheme. Hill?s emergence has given Smith the quick hit weapon this offense has needed for the last two years and his ability to go the distance in the return game has been a game changers for the Chiefs, and how the opposition game-plans for this Chiefs team.
The Steelers ran the ball with success a week ago in a big win over the Miami Dolphins. Pittsburgh used six offensive linemen for 21 plays a week ago. If the weather continues to be wet, cold with gusty winds at Arrowhead don?t be surprised if Ben and his unit once again attempt to ground and pound on Sunday night.
Pittsburgh has managed to win eight straight contests and come into this AFC Divisional Round Playoff contest with confidence. They have a roster and quarterback with Super-Bowl experience. However, this team has played poorly, even ugly at times, on the road. A game in Arrowhead presents a number of hurdles for a team that is bound to timing, something Ben and the offensive will be hard pressed to acquire, in a loud and disruptive Arrowhead atmosphere.
Give Andy Reid and his staff two weeks to prepare for an opponent and history tells us it is light?s out. Reid is 16-2 coming off a bye and is 3-0 for his career in divisional-round games with an extra week to prepare.
DALLAS -4? over Green Bay
The Packers have won seven games in a row after disposing of the Giants in a 38-13 win last Sunday at Lambeau Field. That result may look lopsided on paper but had a break or two gone the Giants way, the outcome may have been quite different. The big play getting all the headlines was a 42-yard prayer that landed in the arms of Packers receiver Randall Cobb in the end zone to end the first half. We read this week that Rodgers has ?perfected? the Hail Mary, which is ridiculous. We often preach that most of these games come down to ?in-game variance? and that play was a prime example. Odell Beckham Jr. dropping at least two key passes that were right in his arms is another example. It's a good thing this game kicks off at 4:40 PM EST this afternoon because if they waited any longer, Aaron Rodgers might walk on water. Don't get us wrong, Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league but he is only one man. He cannot block, run, catch or play defense. Each one of those areas is a concern for Green Bay coming into this game. The Packers rank 15th in sacks allowed which is tied with the Jets and Buccaneers and it?s not impressive company. Green Bay's running game ranks 20th and it finished the regular season 22nd in total defense. The Packers recent run and Rodgers' pedigree has the Packers getting a little too much credit here.
The Cowboys finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, which was tops in the NFC. Dallas locked up their spot after Week 15, which was the last time it played a meaningful down of football. We've heard the case against the Cowboys. Their 26th ranked pass defense will get shredded by Rodgers who is out for 'revenge' after a Week 5 loss to Dallas and who is playing at another level right now. We're not buying it. The Cowboys dominated the Packers in that first meeting and we're not sure what's changed. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott has only gotten better with an entire season of play under his belt. This is a ?what have you done for me lately? league and with the Cowboys coming off a bye after sitting their starters in Week 17, we can understand the hesitation to back them here. It's much easier to lay your hard earned dollars down on a proven commodity like Aaron Rodgers over an unknown one in the playoffs in Dak Prescott. We're not concerned because Dak has been thrown into pressure situations all season long, he?s been under the immense media spotlight and he?s risen to the occasion every single time. Unlike the Pack, the Cowboys can run the ball, which provides them with the ability to sustain long drives and keep the clock moving while keeping Rodgers on the sidelines in the process. Green Bay cannot run the ball at all, which means when they do strike, it?ll likely be quick strikes, thus forcing their defense back on the field. Figure Green Bay?s defense to be on the field a whole lot more than the ?Boys defense and by the fourth quarter, that figures to take a big toll. This market has had a hard time all season buying the Cowboys great success and they keep proving tghe market wrong. We expect that to continue here.
KANSAS CITY -3 over Pittsburgh
Back in Week 4 in Pittsburgh on a Sunday night in prime time, the Steelers just went nuts on the Chiefs. They passed for 300 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 151 yards in Le'Veon Bell's first game back from suspension. Since losing to the Cowboys in Week 10, the Steelers have been racking up the wins with at least 24 points per game and usually holding opponents to only two touchdowns or fewer. Indeed, it would be easy to make a case for the Steelers, especially when considering our disdain for Andy Reid and Alex Smith but value is value and after considering all the angles, we must conclude that the Chiefs are underpriced. Though by no means a certainty, four of the last five years have seen one home team lose in this round and now the Chiefs are not even getting the standard three points for home field. There are other things at work here too.
While Le'Veon Bell is absolutely a beast, Tyreek Hill has become a much bigger factor now because he does everything. Hill is as good as anyone right now and he can score or pick up big yardage during kicks, out of the backfield or on a short pitch and catch. Remember, the Chiefs have only lost twice since getting whacked in Pittsburgh and both losses were by just two points. K.C. also went into Atlanta and defeated the Falcons.
Andy Reid may have us scratching our heads during this game once or twice but Mike Tomlin WILL have us scratching our heads for sure. We may as well call Tomlin ?The Fourth Down Roulette Wheel?. Not even Andy Reid makes more baffling fourth down choices than this man. Tomlin also goes for two points more than any man on the planet and he?s mismanaged that in the playoffs before when a missed two-pointer allowed the Bengals to come all the way back from 15 down. As always, some other moron team comes drooling along to make the Steelers look good when what they really deserve to be thrown into a trash compactor and that team this year was the Dolphins. Then there?s Big Ben, who ends every season with a playoff loss because half his vital organs and joints have stopped working by now and this year is no different. Roethlisberger will get hit and knocked down before trotting his dazed ass back out onto the field to throw the inevitable, decisive interception. That?s the Steelers for you and they are also a team that does not travel well. When the Steelers are forced out of their region or comfort zone, they just aren?t the same team. Pittsburgh responds well to being at home but playing in hostile environments when the crowd hates you is a different animal and we don?t trust the Steelers for a second in that regard.
Let?s also not forget about Andy Reid?s 19-2 record off a bye. That?s significant. Only Bill Belichick is in the same ballpark so give Reid an extra week to prepare and the proof is in the pudding that the chances of his team winning are far greater than losing. In the playoffs, home teams win often. This year, the host is 6-0 so far but this host is priced like the game is being played on a neutral field. Arrowhead is an extremely difficult venue to play in for visiting teams and we?re almost sure that Alex Smith, Andy Reid and the rest of the Chiefs will make far fewer mistakes than the Steelers. If the game is decided by turnovers, we love our chances even more.
Houston at Brooklyn
Play: Houston -12?
Under different circumstances, this might be a good spot for the Nets. Had the Rockets still been on a big winning streak, as they recently were, this is a game that they could easily have taken for granted. Thats essentially what happened when these teams met at Houston a month ago. The Rockets were off a double-digit win and in the middle of a winning streak. Laying -13, they only beat Brooklyn by four points.
Things set up differently this time though. Off back-to-back losses, for the first time all season, the Rockets figure to be all business. They had yesterday off and they don't play tomorrow. There's no reason to hold back. Even factoring in last month's non-cover against these same Nets, the Rockets are an outstanding 15-4 ATS (18-1 SU) against sub-500 teams. They're also 4-1 SU/ATS their last five, off an upset loss.
Pistons vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +2
The Lakers were crushed by the Clippers at Staples Center last night, but they should have a decent chance to get back on track at home versus the Pistons tonight. Detroit is really struggling, playing their final game of a five game road trip, coming off three straight losses. Head Coach Stan Van Gundy doesn't sound very optimistic about his team's play in recent weeks: "We can't stop anybody. We just can't," Van Gundy lamented. "I mean for the first 21 games we were the second-best defensive team in the league and now we are one of the worst. I'm frustrated. Not with our players, I'm frustrated with myself that I can't figure this out. I mean, we literally can't stop anyone, ever." The Lakers are the healthier of the two teams, as the Pistons are missing Caldwell-Pope and Leuer. Luol Deng was rested last night, and should be ready to go here in the second game of a back to back. Detroit is 0-6 ATS in their last six visits to the Staples Center, and this looks like a tough spot for them to break that trend.
Chicago @ Memphis
Pick: Chicago
The Chicago Bulls have won three straight and Jimmy Butler is playing at an All-Star level. The Bulls will travel to Memphis to face the Grizzlies on Sunday night. The Bulls? wins were big ones too over Charlotte, Toronto, and Cleveland, three of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference.
In the win over Cleveland, Butler scored 10 of his 20 points in the fourth quarter and he erupted for 42 in an overtime win over Toronto. Butler is 10th in the league in scoring averaging 25.6 points per game and is a likely All-Star. Teammate Dwayne Wade is scoring 18.6 per game and point guard Rajon Rondo is dishing out 7.1 assists per game. Chicago is currently seventh in the East and can make a move on Indiana and Charlotte which are both currently 20-18.
Out West, Memphis is in the fifth spot in the conference standings and has won two straight including a very impressive 128-119 win over Golden State in Oakland. Pairing Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the lineup seems to be working out as evidenced in the victory over the Warriors. Gasol scored 23 points while Randolph shot 12-of-17, scored 27 points, and grabbed 11 rebounds. Point guard Mike Conley adds over 18 points a game and the Memphis defense is one of the best in the NBA. The Grizzlies hold opponents to 98.6 points per game. If they can slow down Butler and Wade, they will have a great shot at a win on Sunday.
Iowa vs. Northwestern
Play: Iowa +6?
Northwestern continues to chase the ever elusive Big Dance appearance and have compiled a 14-4 SU record. But I believe the line has caught up to the Wildcats in this one. Northwestern still plays a decent brand of defensive basketball, but they aren't exactly "dead-eyes" on the offensive end. They've averaged just 66.8 ppg in their last four conference games on 41.7% shooting, including 28.6% from behind the arc. Iowa's playing a better brand of basketball of late, winning three of four, including a win over Purdue last time out. In fact, they're a 3-point OT loss away from a 4-0 conference streak. Peter Jok is on fire for the Hawkeyes and backcourt mate Jordan Bohannon is a solid disher, allowing him to hang with the Northwestern backcourt and create solid looks on the offensive end. Iowa enters on an 8-2 SU run overall, and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine against the Wildcats.
Iowa at Northwestern
Pick: Over
Iowa has offensive talent, but going with so many freshmen means they are not a strong defensive team, especially on the road. Iowa is 4-1-1 over the total on the road and 13-6 over in Sunday games. Northwestern is home from a two-game trip and the offense clicks better at home.
Georgia Tech vs. NC State
Play: NC State -7?
I have no problem laying this big number on the Wolfpack at home. NC State is a perfect 10-0 at home this season and we know we are going to get a big time effort from them in this one, as they come in off back-to-back road losses. Last time the Wolfpack hosted a team in conference play, they laid a beating on Virginia Tech in a 104-78 win. Georgia Tech comes in off a 75-63 upset win at home over Clemson as a 10 point dog and are primed for a letdown and are just 1-3 in road games this year. Yellow Jackets are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off a home win by 10 or more, while the Wolfpack are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off an upset loss as a favorites.
ANAHEIM -1? +193 over St. Louis
This is the first meeting of the year between these two so there really isn?t any bad blood brewing yet but there are some convincing arguments to get behind the Ducks here and it starts with the goaltenders. Jake Allen had the day off yesterday when the Blue Notes defeated San Jose, 4-0 but Allen will be back where he doesn?t belong today, that being in the starter?s role. Allen has been pulled three times in his last five starts. He was yanked for a second straight game Thursday night after he allowed three goals on 15 shots. Allen has five wins in 15 road starts. His road save percentage is .882, which is dead last in the NHL among qualified starters.
By contrast, John Gibson is on fire. Gibson has posted save percentages of .971, 1.000, .944, 1.000 and .944 in five of his last six starts. Overall, Anaheim has allowed a mere five goals against over its last six games! That bodes well here because St. Louis has fired away 26, 22, 17, 22 and 23 shots on net respectively in their last five games. Give a big edge to the Ducks in goal and in current form.
Both teams will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs but here?s what sticks out to us. The Blues played Los Angeles and San Jose over that span while the Ducks barely broke a sweat in two victories over Arizona and Colorado. Finally, St. Louis got taken out by San Jose in last year?s playoffs. The Sharks did a number on the Blues by beating them in six games but the last two games of that series were blowout wins by the Sharks by scores of 6-2 and 5-2. San Jose also had a 4-0 win in St. Louis during that same series. St. Louis was a motivated team last night that was intent on sending back a message and they accomplished that. The Blues figure to be so much more spent here and perhaps less interested too. If you are not 100% against the Ducks, trouble will follow and that?s precisely how we see this game going down.
Minnesota at Chicago
Play: Chicago -123
Tonight the Red Hot Minnesota Wild go to Chicago to take on the Blackhawks as the top 2 teams in the Western Conference face each other for the first time this year. Minnesota has been the hottest team in the NHL winning 16 out of their last 18 contests but come into Chicago after playing last night in Dallas. This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights which should give the rested Blackhawks the advantage tonight. This will be Chicago's second game in 5 days. HC Joel Quenneville is going to be some ugly as Chicago took a bad beatdown on Friday night losing 6-0 to Washington. Knowing Quenneville like we do practice yesterday had to be brutal for the Hawks. We see Chicago come out with a purpose tonight especially since Minnesota beat the Blackhawks in all 5 regular season games last year. Revenge will be sweet as the Blackhawks hand the Wild a rare loss tonight at the United Center.
UFC featherweight matchup between Yair Rodriguez and BJ Penn. It's a hefty price, but as one UFC-insider told me yesterday, Penn doesn't stand a chance "unless (his coach) Greg Jackson is Jesus Christ."
Penn hasn't won a fight since 2010, and now he steps into the octagon against a kid whose star is on the rise?
I suppose Penn's experience in jiu jitsu would give Rodriguez a problem on the mat, but I don't know if he can get the younger, stronger fighter to the ground.
Rodriguez still hasn?t suffered a loss in the UFC, and this isn't going to be the match he does. On the contrary, this should be the match that retires Penn once and for all.
And if that price is too high for you, consider taking Joe Lauzon (-120) over Marcin Held inthe lightweight bout.
5* YAIR RODRIGUEZ
