3:05 PM NFL [311] GB PACKERS +6-115
6:40 PM NFL [314] NE PATRIOTS -6-115
6:40 PM NFL [314] TOTAL u50-110 (PIT STEELERS vrs NE PATRIOTS)
3:35 PM NBA [834] Dallas Mavericks -5.5 -115
1:00 PM CBB [846] Northern Kentucky -9-110
3:05 PM NHL [4] Pittsburgh Penguins -160
7:35 PM NHL [10] Chicago Blackhawks -200
1 unit bet pays 57 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Atlanta (-4.5) over Green Bay
Matt Ryan is set for an absolutely epic day against this Packers secondary that is ranked dead last in the NFL in allowing the most passing yards this season. The Falcons have averaged 33.8 PPG this season, which is No. 1 in the NFL, and they just destroyed a very good Seahawks defense by putting up 36 points against them. To put that 36-20 rout in perspective, the Seahawks allowed an average of just 18.3 PPG this season, which is 3rd best in the NFL, and now the No. 1 offense in the NFL faces a Packers defense that has allowed 28.6 PPG on the road this season. The Falcons have completed 72.3% of their passes at home this season, and the Packers opponents have a completion percentage of 68.4% against them on the road this season. The Packers are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game, and the Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after putting up more than 30 points in their previous game. The Cowboys beat themselves last weekend with a bad huddle penalty that took back a big play that would have had them in the red zone at the Packers 20 yard-line. The Cowboys were in the red zone again and Dak threw a bad screen pass that was intercepted, so those two things don't happen and the Cowboys win that game by 6 to 14 points. The Packers won't be so lucky this week, so play Atlanta ATS with extreme confidence
Packers at Falcons
Pick: Over
Two of the Top scoring teams square off for the NFC Championship on Sunday. Rodgers is playing out of his mind, like you don't already know. Ryan is showing flashes of the "Ice" he has been known for. Both these QBs are MVP finalists, and have 78TDs between the two of them. Kyle Shanahan will be running the offense still, as he's committed to finishing out the postseason with the Falcons. Each team runs around 60 plays a game, which translate into about 6 yd per play #1 & #2 overall. These teams didn't get this far on defense, it's been all offense and just flat out scoring the opponent. Defensively each team allows 367 Yds of offense that's #22 & #23. Atlanta has a 9-0 Over record at home, while the Pack bring a 7-2 Over record on the road. Last team with the ball wins this one and lives up to the hype.
Green Bay +5? over ATLANTA
The Falcons offensive pedigree has been a major talking point this week and why not? Quarterback Matt Ryan is the favorite to win the NFL's MVP award after leading the league's highest scoring offense. The Falcons are an offensive juggernaut and with the addition of a two-headed running game that includes Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman, they appear primed to make it to the Super Bowl. However, we're not in the business of picking winners and losers. When the ?great equalizer? is introduced, landing on the right side of this game becomes much more difficult. We understand that the Falcons can and are likely to score in bunches but their inability to stop an equally dangerous offense has us questioning whether they have the defensive personal to move on. Atlanta finished the regular season 25th in total defense. Quality signal callers have been an issue for the Falcons this season, as they rank 28th against the pass. The Falcons have proven that they can put up numbers against nearly any defense in the league but they?re just as susceptible to the big play as they are on delivering it. The Falcons are soft against the run as well and Ty Montgomery wasn't playing in the first meeting that came after the Packers had lost Eddie Lacy. Rodgers threw for four TD?s that day and there is no reason to expect a downgrade in performance here with a livelier running game. Atlanta is absolutely capable of taking an early lead in this game and never looking back but so are the Packers. If the Falcons we're to falter early, it could be a long swim back. Just ask the number one seed, Dallas Cowboys.
In what looks pretty much like a 50/50 proposition to win outright, we have a hard time leaving these points on the table. We all saw the Packers take an early double digit lead against the Cowboys and Dallas had to fight to the very end just to tie the game but it wasn't enough. The Cowboys found out the hard way what happens when you give Aaron Rodgers the ball with time on the clock. The Packers sealed the deal on a last second field goal and the Cowboys 11-win season went up in smoke. It didn't matter that the Packers were without star wide receiver Jordy Nelson or that they used Montgomery, a wide receiver as their lead tailback, as Rodgers was still able to find open men. It's dangerous to fade a team that is on a serious roll like the Packers are on right now. While the Packers can trade punches with the Falcons offensively, their defense is much better than Atlanta's.
The question is how much weight do we put on Green Bay?s postseason victories and how much weight do we put on Atlanta?s lone postseason victory over Seattle? The Falcons took the lead against the Seahawks last week in the second quarter and never looked back. This will be a much different game since the Seahawks brought in an offense that couldn?t give its defense time to rest. The talent, production and chemistry of the Falcons offense is elite, but their defense is likely to get shredded. Green Bay?s defense has its work cut out for them too but its excellent leadership depth on both sides of the ball is probably a bit tighter overall as a team. That's helped the Packers prepare very well so far down the stretch and into the playoffs and they'll play like the favorite on the Falcons turf. Take the points.
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.....as all can see the points are all made - this is all about what I often call a "forced market", which line moves can lack an integrity. This same game, with the same factors, might move a half point because of the Packer personnel issues, but the volume would be only a fraction. Now we have so many folks that have made a decision to bet the game, regardless of where the line happens to be, and they will be looking to bet whatever narrative best fits their handicapping process. Someone that liked Atlanta -4 would not lay the Falcons at -5 or higher in the regular season; they would simply move on to another game with their bankroll. But there is no other game at 3:05 Eastern on Sunday. Hence the forced action. There will still be folks betting Atlanta -6 tomorrow because they were waiting until game day to bet, and could not have locked in earlier (of course along those same lines there will be folks taking Green Bay on the Money Line, which is down to +175 at the Westgate now, for similar reasons).
At this point the market is much more about recreation than folks looking for edges - the volume on GB/Atlanta would likely be the same if the game was -4, -5 or -6.
Packers vs. Falcons
Play: Under 61.5
It was just a few days ago now that the Houston Rockets hosted Golden State, in a game that featured the highest NBA total in modern history (at least the last 10 years). The number opened at 236.5, and closed as high as 242. This is what I said prior to tip off: " Even for those who think this game is going to be a shootout, there's just no value betting over with such an inflated total." The Warriors went on to win that game by a score of 125-108, which would normally be an easy cash for over bettors. Not in this case though, because the number was just too high. I feel the same way about this year's NFC Championship Game. While I expect both teams to score plenty of points, I still think it's going to be hard to reach what is expected to be the highest NFL total in playoff history. In order for both teams to score 30+ points, everything has to go right offensively. There's plenty that can go wrong. An injury to a key offensive player (heaven forbid one of the quarterbacks). We could see several drives cut short by turnovers (fumbles or INTs). Or one or both teams could be heavily penalized. Offensive holding penalties, offensive pass interference, unsportsmanlike conduct etc. I do expect this to be a high scoring game, and I've loaded up on prop bets for individual players to score TDs. I don't need 61.5 total points to cash in all those bets, and I think the chances are a lot higher that the total lands between 50-60, than they are for the total to go over 61.5.
Item: How much difference might energy make?
There was the potential for a young Atlanta team to face some nerves last week vs. Seattle, but the Falcons not only played with poise, but got the kind of win that does wonders for the maturation level. So with that out of the way we now have a confident team, and perhaps most important for this matchup a fresh one. They have been home since Christmas, closing the regular season with a non-taxing win over New Orleans (remember that one was 38-13 going into the fourth quarter), and outside of Julio Jones being a little less than 100 percent do not face any significant injury issues.
The Green Bay path has been much different. This will essentially be the fourth straight playoff game, starting with the final night of the regular season at Detroit, and the third of those four games to be on the road. When you add the defensive injuries to the mix, the likely absence of Jordy Nelson again, and also the ankle of Devonte Adams being an issue (he won?t practice until Saturday, though he will likely play), the Packers are not at their best anyway.
Because of that Atlanta works for me at -4, which was available early then went away on Monday, but could show again ? Green Bay was a popular public ticket last Sunday, and it would not be a surprise to see a repeat of that flow to the betting windows. Even at -4 the investment amount isn?t special ? just an NFL grinder that accepts all of the various possibilities involved, though at a time when so many in the markets like to step things up.
Item: Can either the Packers or the Falcons make a damn stop?
For all of the various intricacies that are in play as the NFL gets charted each week, I believe the best path to putting together a winning model for Packers/Falcons starts with the most obvious, yet takes obvious to a special level ? is either defense capable of making a stop, much less a series of them? I could go on ad nauseam about the statistical components of the matchup, but that would be overkill, so let?s let the simple regular season numbers from the Football Outsiders set that stage, then work to a few particulars:
Offense Defense
Atlanta #1 #22
Green Bay #4 #23
And of course we could not that the Packers recent level on offense has been even higher, the performances of Aaron Rodgers at a truly special level. When was the last time a conference championship game was played when each defense was rated #20 or lower? Never. Hence?
Item: A perspective on the price
Let?s call it Atlanta -4.5 and 60.5 as the consensus on Thursday morning. The Total is the highest ever for an NFL playoff game, and there has not been a regular season affair at this plateau since a clash between the Rams and 49ers back in 2000 (if you're curious it fell 58).
NFL games produced an average of 45.6 points this season, so one of the first things you want to bring into your consciousness is what this Total means in terms of a -4.5, because it does matter. If a team is favored by -4.5 in a game expected to produce the league average number of points, the chalk is being called on to score 54.9 percent of them. In this instance the Falcons are only being called on to score 53.7. That matters in terms of the degree of dominance the favorite must have to cover, and while that gap may look small, when you do this every day it goes without saying that small edges indeed matter. Find Atlanta at -4 with this Total and the ?DOD? falls to 53.3,
....the best purely mathematical option may be Atlanta on the Money Line at -220 or less if you see it, that offering a better value than -6, because the books have had to shade for the Packers Backers that may be more inclined to opt for the outright win than take the points (or at least that is what the markets are expecting, with some guys standing there with fingers crossed). That opens up a whole lot of good numbers for the game to land on, and you are buying those numbers for a reasonable price.
Tom Brady career versus the Steelers when coached by Mike Tomlin -- Avg Yards Per Game 315, 19 Touchdowns, 0 Interceptions, and a 127 QB rating....
Greg Cosell on the Pittsburgh offense:
Over the last couple months, Ben Roethlisberger hasn?t played at a high level and has been inconsistent. The Steeler offense has transitioned into being Le?Veon Bell?s offense. In the last five games, Bell has 74 first down runs, and is averaging 6.3 yards per rush on those attempts.
Pittsburgh?s success this week against New England will depend heavily on Bell?s continued effectiveness in the running game.
Greg Cosell on Brady vs. the Pittsburgh defense
The Texans are very multiple with their defensive front looks and their pass rush concepts out of those looks. Against New England, they were able to consistently generate pressure. Houston?s defensive approach was similar to Denver?s from last year?s playoffs, against whom Brady also struggled.
To have success against Brady, teams need to get pressure, which is difficult because of his pre-snap intelligence and ability to recognize coverages and blitzes. If the Steelers are blitz heavy this week, expect to see Brady run no-huddle, tempo, and the quick passing game to counter it.
Pittsburgh?s defense and pressure schemes have evolved throughout the year, and this week they?ll have to pressure Brady. It doesn?t mean it will work, but the chess match between the Steelers defense and Brady will be crucial in deciding the outcome of the game.
NEW ENGLAND -6 over Pittsburgh
If you're looking for a case to be made for these Steelers, we can't help you. Other than a couple of dynamic offensive playmakers in Le'evon Bell and Antonio Brown, there isn?t a lot to like here. The Steelers were a preseason favorite to be in this position but the way they got here is really unimpressive. The Steelers stumbled through the regular season with an 11-5 record that looks way better on paper than it really is. The Steelers benefited from playing poor teams like the Bengals and Browns. They only have wins against two playoff teams (Giants, Chiefs) while the rest came against lesser competition. Pittsburgh has been in the right place at the right time in these playoffs after drawing the Dolphins (minus their starting QB) in round one. As a double-digit favorite over the Fish, Pittsburgh looked average at best. Next, the Steelers traveled to Kansas City and got lucky to escape with a win after failing to score a touchdown. That?s a rare feat which has only happened six times in league history. The Steelers left many points on the board and if not for a holding call on a two-point conversion at the end of the game, the Chiefs could very well be in this spot. In every aspect of this game, the Steelers are out-manned and outgunned. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is tossing up multiple jump balls a game and while we cannot predict who will win the turnover battle, ?Big Ben? is the pivot that is throwing junk all over the field. Finally, the Steelers made headlines this week for all the wrong reasons after Antonio Brown, a team leader, broadcast his head coach's post game speech. It was a neat peak behind the curtain for fans but did nothing but create a huge distraction for the offending player and his team. Something like that would NEVER happen in New England, NEVER. The battle of the sidelines might be the biggest mismatch of all in this game.
Although we have no proof, we suspect Patriots head coach Bill Belichick was smiling after his team's ?poor? showing against the Texans. That result should have Patriot players on both sides of the ball focused on cleaning up the mistakes they made last week. The Pats were putrid by their standards last Saturday night but they still covered an 18-point spread against the Texans. A ?bad? playoff win sits just fine with us, as we?re getting a deal on the AFC's number one seed. It isn't often that the Patriots are giving up less than a touchdown in a home playoff game. Belichick admitted before his team's game against the Texans that he was already planning for these Steelers. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin seems to be already making excuses after their game was moved to prime time complaining that ?BB? had an extra 36 hours to prepare. The problem is that if Tomlin were given an extra two months to prepare, he'd still be out moved by the master.
We played against the Steelers last week and lost but if we had to do it again against K.C. we?d still go against them because Alex Smith was downright horrible and the Steelers needed a holding call to get to this point. We've been warned many times this year and in two playoff games as well that the Steelers lack the key ingredients that fuel a championship run and so they have little chance of going into this environment and defeating this juggernaut. The Patriots left their championship mentality on the table last week because Houston was a cakewalk. They won?t leave it on the table here in what we?re calling an easy and convincing victory.
....one of the prime issues will be how the New England defense schemes it up - the preference in the past has been Butler vs. Brown man-to-man, and play the rest of the packages straight. It isn't so much that Butler has stopped Brown (no one is going to), but in that they could trust him enough to not have to gimmick up into double-teams, which can leave holes elsewhere.
Projecting the NE offense is always a difficult gambit because the Pats are so match-up based, and alter their flows from game-to-game based on what they can exploit. As such we can't even read much into the first hint at Pittsburgh this season, when there was a big emphasis on Blount controlling things between the tackles, because that was back with the Steeler LB corps was not in the current configuration. One of the items noted here often, and a point of emphasis in this week's podcast, is how the NE offense is built for flexibility, some pieces coming to the forefront in a game and then disappearing for a while, and even without Gronk the current edition brings some diverse options.
Steelers vs. Patriots
Play: Under 51
What more can be said about these two teams which hasn?t literally been said a million times at this point. The Steelers and Patriots are both very familiar to the postseason over the last ten years. New England is led by QB Tom Brady and Pittsburgh is led by Ben Roethlisberger. These are two of the most capable QB?s in NFL history. Last week the Steelers held on for an 18-16 road win in Kansas City. Roethlisberger had 224 yards and zero TD?s. RB Le?Veon Bell had 170 rushing yards. Note that Pittsburgh scored an average of 24.9 PPG in the regular season to rank the team 11th overall. Pittsburgh looked great defensively in the win over the Chiefs, holding them to just 227 total yards. The Patriots pulled away for a 34-16 win over the Texans last weekend. While New England was third overall on offense with an average of 27.6 PPG, it was its defense which was the difference maker this year, finishing No. 1 in allowing 15.6 PPG. The bottom line is, we?re expecting more of a ?chess match,? where field position ends up playing a big part in the final outcome. The Steelers had a difficult time against the Chiefs on the road, but now face the top defense in the league. This number is just a little bit high in our opinion, consider a second look at the UNDER in the AFC Championship game.
Steelers vs. Patriots
Play: Under 51
The guys from New England have been playing at a level that is scary. Julian Edelman with 12 targets over the last 5 games, Martellus Bennett with 3 TDs over the last 5 games, and lest not forget their future HoF QB and his 14/1 TD to int ratio. It's going to take an awful lot to put the damper on their party. New England RBs can find holes when teams stack the box, and LeGarrette Blount's 1161 YDs isn't a fluke, or are his 18TDs. When Tom runs the fake option, he gets LBs to freeze, which opens up their quick passing attack. The biggest part is what Brady does when at home, with 12 TDs and 311 YPG in 6 games this season - this isn't going to be changed here.
Pittsburgh isn't always able to disguise what they want to do with the best of deception. On 3rd down and short, teams tend to know Pittsburgh are going to run the ball with their 1884 YDs from scrimmage utility RB Le'Veon Bell. The Pittsburgh back is great at doing just pretty much anything - but when teams are ready for it, like the Pats will be, it isn't going to work out all that well. The Pats have been ranked 3rd vs the run for a reason, only giving up 3.9 YPC and 6 TDs on the ground. The Steelers have allowed the 16th most passing yards on the year, vs the this passing game it will be much the same...wash, rinse, repeat. Big Ben on the road has been less than stellar, with 9 of his 16 total ints when visiting teams - the Pats will be bringing enough pressure and the crowd wont let him forget where he is playing.
Columbus is 10-4 in their last 14 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation
Ottawa is 3-13 in their last 16 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation
Vancouver has won only 5 games on the road, Chicago has lost only 5 games at home.
Detroit is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Northern Kentucky is 4-1 ATS their last five home games
La Salle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against conference opponents
VCU is The home team, which are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings of this matchup...and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games
Georgetown is 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. Big East..1-4 ATS last 5 after an ATS loss.
Xavier is 7-3 ATS last 10 home games...and 5-1 ATS last 6 in series.
Phoenix at Toronto
Play: Toronto
This one should be a blowout!....This game is a mismatch. The Suns are just 4-11 straight up over the last month. But one of those wins came at home against the Raptors. I think that Toronto is going to want to get revenge. The Raptors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record, and this Toronto team has an excellent home-court advantage. This game is coming at the end of a three-game road trip for Phoenix. They play against the defending champions on Thursday, then they go to New York City on Saturday, and without rest they will have to head to Toronto on Sunday afternoon before flying home. This is the type of game that NBA players just don't even try in. Toronto will want to get revenge, and this one should be over by halftime. Lay the points.
Suns vs. Raptors
Play: Suns +11?
While Phoenix is not a world beater by any means, they have one of the more potent offenses in the league. They are averaging 106 points on the road this year. Tyson Chandler is absolutely murdering the boards recently averaging just over 17 rebounds a game over his last 7 games. Bledsoe and Booker are both playing very efficiently on the offensive end as well. Phoenix is 15-5-1 ATS over the last 21 games against Toronto, the Suns are 6-1-1 over the last 8, and has won 9 of the last 11 games in Toronto. I don't think Phoenix wins, but their offense keeps it close.
Phoenix vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The Toronto Raptors will try to rebound from their worst offensive performance of the season when they return home Sunday to take on one of the league's worst defensive teams in the Phoenix Suns. The Raptors shot 33.7 percent from the floor and were out-rebounded 51-33 in a 113-78 loss at Charlotte on Friday. Meanwhile, the Suns earned a 107-105 victory at Madison Square Garden last night on Devin Booker's three-pointer with 31 seconds to play. They survived when Carmelo Anthony's three-pointer at the buzzer rolled around the rim and fell out.
Booker had 26 points for the Suns and the 20-year-old has had quite a January. It started modestly with 13 points on January 2nd but in his last eight games, he's scored at least 21 points in each outing, topped by his back-to-back 39-point efforts in Mexico City. He's averaging 28.4 PPG in that stretch and now leads the team in scoring at 20.5 PPG. That barely edges out PG Bledsoe, who checks in at 20.4 PPG, along with 5.1 RPG and 6.1 APG. Bedsoe was 10-for-10 from the line Saturday, played 39 turnover-free minutes and owns 35 assists against only nine giveaways in his last four contests. Then threr is center Tyson Chandler, who grabbed 16 rebounds against the Knicks to set a franchise record with his seventh consecutive game of at least 15 boards (an average of 17.0 per game). However, there is a reason the Suns are 14-29 and it's a defense allowing 111.7 PPG (29th), with that number increasing to 113.3 PPG on the road.
Toronto's 'ugly' loss to the Hornets leaves them at 6-7 over its last 13 games. "We've been in a little funk lately," point guard Kyle Lowry told reporters. "We're not playing on all cylinders right now. I just think it's that time of year. No excuses at all, there's just this mental fatigue." You think? The Raptors may be the East's No. 2 seed with a 28-15 record but I doubt there is one person familiar with the league who thinks the Raptors are a serious threat to the Cavs returning to the NBA Finals.
However, this game is against the Suns and with the Raptors off Friday's embarrassing loss, expect them to put forth an excellent effort. If need be, they can be reminded that one of the team's losses in its recent 6-7 slump came at Phoenix back on Dec 29, a 99-91 Suns victory! The Raptors are the East's highest scoring team and third overall at 110.2 PPG. They are 15-6 SU (13-7-1 ATS) at home, where they average 114.0 PPG. Lay the points!
Warriors vs. Magic
Play: Magic +13?
Even though the Warriors have won 6 games in a row and have covered 4 straight games, this looks like the ideal spot to fade them. Golden State's most recent games have included match-ups with teams like the Rockets, Thunder, and Cavaliers. All of those are teams that are easy for GS to get "up" for in terms of motivational levels. I don't foresee the Warriors as being able to be too excited about this ultra early game at Orlando on a Sunday morning that starts at 9 AM on the body clocks of Golden State (they are accustomed to Pacific time). Also, the Warriors have game on deck at Miami for tomorrow so, even if they do get up big in this game, the late game focus will be on resting guys and getting ready for tomorrow's game. Look for Golden State to win this game but it is very likely to be less than 10 points. That said, with this line jumping all the way from an 11.5 up to as high as a 13.5 as of early gameday morning, there is come nice line value here with the home dog.
George Mason vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -6
As with all plays I release and bet, we start with a side that is undervalued according to my power ratings. That's the case for Richmond in this one. T.J. Cline & ShawnDre' Jones are a tough duo for any opponent, including George Mason. The two combine for 34 ppg, more than 9 rpg, and 9 apg. Besides the defensive matchup issues with these two, GMU also doesn't have any true dishers; no one player to rely upon to set up open looks for others. Richmond defends well, especially on the perimeter and they'll head into this one having covered four of their last five off a loss. The home team in this series is on an 8-1 ATS run and we'll back the home team here.
Central Florida vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -5
UCF has won seven of its past eight games, but I'll side with Memphis here on Sunday, who is also rolling. Memphis has won five of six and averages over 78 points/game. And the Tigers have covered six of the last seven home meetings with the Knights. KJ Lawson had career highs with 28 points and 16 rebounds, Dedric Lawson had 18 points and 10 boards and Memphis beat Houston 70-67 in overtime Thursday night. UCF has struggled on the road as well this season. I like Memphis in this spot at home.
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Pick: Under
Virginia Tech heads out on the road and the Under is 12-5 in Hokies last 17 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Clemson plays tough defense and won't be in a good mood. The Under is 9-3 in Tigers last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. They are also 35-17-1 under the total in Sunday games.
Xavier was 0-3 since Myles Davis returned to team; he played 10 mpg in those games, but is now gone. Musketeers are 2-1 in Big East home games, beating Providence/St John?s- they lost last home game to Creighton. Xavier is 6-2 vs Georgetown in Big East meetings; Musketeers won two of three played here- they won first meeting this year 81-76 on New Year?s Eve, outscoring Hoyas 29-14 on foul line. Hoyas are 0-2 on Big East road, losing by 10 at Marquette, 6 at Providence. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 8-2 vs spread.
Arizona St +8.5
This might be a tough spot for SC, in a sandwich situation between highly-ranked Arizona prior to a crosstown showdown vs. UCLA later in the week. The Trojans have had trouble covering lately as chalk (1-6 last 7 in role), as their offense has adopted more of a halfcourt mindset, with skinny 6-11 soph pivot Chimezie Metu (18.8 ppg last four thru Jan. 18) now the focus of the attack. That has slowed the Trojan pace and likely makes it harder to extend the margin vs. ASU and its 82 ppg offense, led by four 14-ppg-or-better scorers, including 6-5 Buffalo transfer Torian Graham (18.1 ppg).
6:40 PM NFL [314] NE PATRIOTS -6-115
6:40 PM NFL [314] TOTAL u50-110 (PIT STEELERS vrs NE PATRIOTS)
3:35 PM NBA [834] Dallas Mavericks -5.5 -115
1:00 PM CBB [846] Northern Kentucky -9-110
3:05 PM NHL [4] Pittsburgh Penguins -160
7:35 PM NHL [10] Chicago Blackhawks -200
1 unit bet pays 57 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Atlanta (-4.5) over Green Bay
Matt Ryan is set for an absolutely epic day against this Packers secondary that is ranked dead last in the NFL in allowing the most passing yards this season. The Falcons have averaged 33.8 PPG this season, which is No. 1 in the NFL, and they just destroyed a very good Seahawks defense by putting up 36 points against them. To put that 36-20 rout in perspective, the Seahawks allowed an average of just 18.3 PPG this season, which is 3rd best in the NFL, and now the No. 1 offense in the NFL faces a Packers defense that has allowed 28.6 PPG on the road this season. The Falcons have completed 72.3% of their passes at home this season, and the Packers opponents have a completion percentage of 68.4% against them on the road this season. The Packers are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game, and the Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after putting up more than 30 points in their previous game. The Cowboys beat themselves last weekend with a bad huddle penalty that took back a big play that would have had them in the red zone at the Packers 20 yard-line. The Cowboys were in the red zone again and Dak threw a bad screen pass that was intercepted, so those two things don't happen and the Cowboys win that game by 6 to 14 points. The Packers won't be so lucky this week, so play Atlanta ATS with extreme confidence
Packers at Falcons
Pick: Over
Two of the Top scoring teams square off for the NFC Championship on Sunday. Rodgers is playing out of his mind, like you don't already know. Ryan is showing flashes of the "Ice" he has been known for. Both these QBs are MVP finalists, and have 78TDs between the two of them. Kyle Shanahan will be running the offense still, as he's committed to finishing out the postseason with the Falcons. Each team runs around 60 plays a game, which translate into about 6 yd per play #1 & #2 overall. These teams didn't get this far on defense, it's been all offense and just flat out scoring the opponent. Defensively each team allows 367 Yds of offense that's #22 & #23. Atlanta has a 9-0 Over record at home, while the Pack bring a 7-2 Over record on the road. Last team with the ball wins this one and lives up to the hype.
Green Bay +5? over ATLANTA
The Falcons offensive pedigree has been a major talking point this week and why not? Quarterback Matt Ryan is the favorite to win the NFL's MVP award after leading the league's highest scoring offense. The Falcons are an offensive juggernaut and with the addition of a two-headed running game that includes Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman, they appear primed to make it to the Super Bowl. However, we're not in the business of picking winners and losers. When the ?great equalizer? is introduced, landing on the right side of this game becomes much more difficult. We understand that the Falcons can and are likely to score in bunches but their inability to stop an equally dangerous offense has us questioning whether they have the defensive personal to move on. Atlanta finished the regular season 25th in total defense. Quality signal callers have been an issue for the Falcons this season, as they rank 28th against the pass. The Falcons have proven that they can put up numbers against nearly any defense in the league but they?re just as susceptible to the big play as they are on delivering it. The Falcons are soft against the run as well and Ty Montgomery wasn't playing in the first meeting that came after the Packers had lost Eddie Lacy. Rodgers threw for four TD?s that day and there is no reason to expect a downgrade in performance here with a livelier running game. Atlanta is absolutely capable of taking an early lead in this game and never looking back but so are the Packers. If the Falcons we're to falter early, it could be a long swim back. Just ask the number one seed, Dallas Cowboys.
In what looks pretty much like a 50/50 proposition to win outright, we have a hard time leaving these points on the table. We all saw the Packers take an early double digit lead against the Cowboys and Dallas had to fight to the very end just to tie the game but it wasn't enough. The Cowboys found out the hard way what happens when you give Aaron Rodgers the ball with time on the clock. The Packers sealed the deal on a last second field goal and the Cowboys 11-win season went up in smoke. It didn't matter that the Packers were without star wide receiver Jordy Nelson or that they used Montgomery, a wide receiver as their lead tailback, as Rodgers was still able to find open men. It's dangerous to fade a team that is on a serious roll like the Packers are on right now. While the Packers can trade punches with the Falcons offensively, their defense is much better than Atlanta's.
The question is how much weight do we put on Green Bay?s postseason victories and how much weight do we put on Atlanta?s lone postseason victory over Seattle? The Falcons took the lead against the Seahawks last week in the second quarter and never looked back. This will be a much different game since the Seahawks brought in an offense that couldn?t give its defense time to rest. The talent, production and chemistry of the Falcons offense is elite, but their defense is likely to get shredded. Green Bay?s defense has its work cut out for them too but its excellent leadership depth on both sides of the ball is probably a bit tighter overall as a team. That's helped the Packers prepare very well so far down the stretch and into the playoffs and they'll play like the favorite on the Falcons turf. Take the points.
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.....as all can see the points are all made - this is all about what I often call a "forced market", which line moves can lack an integrity. This same game, with the same factors, might move a half point because of the Packer personnel issues, but the volume would be only a fraction. Now we have so many folks that have made a decision to bet the game, regardless of where the line happens to be, and they will be looking to bet whatever narrative best fits their handicapping process. Someone that liked Atlanta -4 would not lay the Falcons at -5 or higher in the regular season; they would simply move on to another game with their bankroll. But there is no other game at 3:05 Eastern on Sunday. Hence the forced action. There will still be folks betting Atlanta -6 tomorrow because they were waiting until game day to bet, and could not have locked in earlier (of course along those same lines there will be folks taking Green Bay on the Money Line, which is down to +175 at the Westgate now, for similar reasons).
At this point the market is much more about recreation than folks looking for edges - the volume on GB/Atlanta would likely be the same if the game was -4, -5 or -6.
Packers vs. Falcons
Play: Under 61.5
It was just a few days ago now that the Houston Rockets hosted Golden State, in a game that featured the highest NBA total in modern history (at least the last 10 years). The number opened at 236.5, and closed as high as 242. This is what I said prior to tip off: " Even for those who think this game is going to be a shootout, there's just no value betting over with such an inflated total." The Warriors went on to win that game by a score of 125-108, which would normally be an easy cash for over bettors. Not in this case though, because the number was just too high. I feel the same way about this year's NFC Championship Game. While I expect both teams to score plenty of points, I still think it's going to be hard to reach what is expected to be the highest NFL total in playoff history. In order for both teams to score 30+ points, everything has to go right offensively. There's plenty that can go wrong. An injury to a key offensive player (heaven forbid one of the quarterbacks). We could see several drives cut short by turnovers (fumbles or INTs). Or one or both teams could be heavily penalized. Offensive holding penalties, offensive pass interference, unsportsmanlike conduct etc. I do expect this to be a high scoring game, and I've loaded up on prop bets for individual players to score TDs. I don't need 61.5 total points to cash in all those bets, and I think the chances are a lot higher that the total lands between 50-60, than they are for the total to go over 61.5.
Item: How much difference might energy make?
There was the potential for a young Atlanta team to face some nerves last week vs. Seattle, but the Falcons not only played with poise, but got the kind of win that does wonders for the maturation level. So with that out of the way we now have a confident team, and perhaps most important for this matchup a fresh one. They have been home since Christmas, closing the regular season with a non-taxing win over New Orleans (remember that one was 38-13 going into the fourth quarter), and outside of Julio Jones being a little less than 100 percent do not face any significant injury issues.
The Green Bay path has been much different. This will essentially be the fourth straight playoff game, starting with the final night of the regular season at Detroit, and the third of those four games to be on the road. When you add the defensive injuries to the mix, the likely absence of Jordy Nelson again, and also the ankle of Devonte Adams being an issue (he won?t practice until Saturday, though he will likely play), the Packers are not at their best anyway.
Because of that Atlanta works for me at -4, which was available early then went away on Monday, but could show again ? Green Bay was a popular public ticket last Sunday, and it would not be a surprise to see a repeat of that flow to the betting windows. Even at -4 the investment amount isn?t special ? just an NFL grinder that accepts all of the various possibilities involved, though at a time when so many in the markets like to step things up.
Item: Can either the Packers or the Falcons make a damn stop?
For all of the various intricacies that are in play as the NFL gets charted each week, I believe the best path to putting together a winning model for Packers/Falcons starts with the most obvious, yet takes obvious to a special level ? is either defense capable of making a stop, much less a series of them? I could go on ad nauseam about the statistical components of the matchup, but that would be overkill, so let?s let the simple regular season numbers from the Football Outsiders set that stage, then work to a few particulars:
Offense Defense
Atlanta #1 #22
Green Bay #4 #23
And of course we could not that the Packers recent level on offense has been even higher, the performances of Aaron Rodgers at a truly special level. When was the last time a conference championship game was played when each defense was rated #20 or lower? Never. Hence?
Item: A perspective on the price
Let?s call it Atlanta -4.5 and 60.5 as the consensus on Thursday morning. The Total is the highest ever for an NFL playoff game, and there has not been a regular season affair at this plateau since a clash between the Rams and 49ers back in 2000 (if you're curious it fell 58).
NFL games produced an average of 45.6 points this season, so one of the first things you want to bring into your consciousness is what this Total means in terms of a -4.5, because it does matter. If a team is favored by -4.5 in a game expected to produce the league average number of points, the chalk is being called on to score 54.9 percent of them. In this instance the Falcons are only being called on to score 53.7. That matters in terms of the degree of dominance the favorite must have to cover, and while that gap may look small, when you do this every day it goes without saying that small edges indeed matter. Find Atlanta at -4 with this Total and the ?DOD? falls to 53.3,
....the best purely mathematical option may be Atlanta on the Money Line at -220 or less if you see it, that offering a better value than -6, because the books have had to shade for the Packers Backers that may be more inclined to opt for the outright win than take the points (or at least that is what the markets are expecting, with some guys standing there with fingers crossed). That opens up a whole lot of good numbers for the game to land on, and you are buying those numbers for a reasonable price.
Tom Brady career versus the Steelers when coached by Mike Tomlin -- Avg Yards Per Game 315, 19 Touchdowns, 0 Interceptions, and a 127 QB rating....
Greg Cosell on the Pittsburgh offense:
Over the last couple months, Ben Roethlisberger hasn?t played at a high level and has been inconsistent. The Steeler offense has transitioned into being Le?Veon Bell?s offense. In the last five games, Bell has 74 first down runs, and is averaging 6.3 yards per rush on those attempts.
Pittsburgh?s success this week against New England will depend heavily on Bell?s continued effectiveness in the running game.
Greg Cosell on Brady vs. the Pittsburgh defense
The Texans are very multiple with their defensive front looks and their pass rush concepts out of those looks. Against New England, they were able to consistently generate pressure. Houston?s defensive approach was similar to Denver?s from last year?s playoffs, against whom Brady also struggled.
To have success against Brady, teams need to get pressure, which is difficult because of his pre-snap intelligence and ability to recognize coverages and blitzes. If the Steelers are blitz heavy this week, expect to see Brady run no-huddle, tempo, and the quick passing game to counter it.
Pittsburgh?s defense and pressure schemes have evolved throughout the year, and this week they?ll have to pressure Brady. It doesn?t mean it will work, but the chess match between the Steelers defense and Brady will be crucial in deciding the outcome of the game.
NEW ENGLAND -6 over Pittsburgh
If you're looking for a case to be made for these Steelers, we can't help you. Other than a couple of dynamic offensive playmakers in Le'evon Bell and Antonio Brown, there isn?t a lot to like here. The Steelers were a preseason favorite to be in this position but the way they got here is really unimpressive. The Steelers stumbled through the regular season with an 11-5 record that looks way better on paper than it really is. The Steelers benefited from playing poor teams like the Bengals and Browns. They only have wins against two playoff teams (Giants, Chiefs) while the rest came against lesser competition. Pittsburgh has been in the right place at the right time in these playoffs after drawing the Dolphins (minus their starting QB) in round one. As a double-digit favorite over the Fish, Pittsburgh looked average at best. Next, the Steelers traveled to Kansas City and got lucky to escape with a win after failing to score a touchdown. That?s a rare feat which has only happened six times in league history. The Steelers left many points on the board and if not for a holding call on a two-point conversion at the end of the game, the Chiefs could very well be in this spot. In every aspect of this game, the Steelers are out-manned and outgunned. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is tossing up multiple jump balls a game and while we cannot predict who will win the turnover battle, ?Big Ben? is the pivot that is throwing junk all over the field. Finally, the Steelers made headlines this week for all the wrong reasons after Antonio Brown, a team leader, broadcast his head coach's post game speech. It was a neat peak behind the curtain for fans but did nothing but create a huge distraction for the offending player and his team. Something like that would NEVER happen in New England, NEVER. The battle of the sidelines might be the biggest mismatch of all in this game.
Although we have no proof, we suspect Patriots head coach Bill Belichick was smiling after his team's ?poor? showing against the Texans. That result should have Patriot players on both sides of the ball focused on cleaning up the mistakes they made last week. The Pats were putrid by their standards last Saturday night but they still covered an 18-point spread against the Texans. A ?bad? playoff win sits just fine with us, as we?re getting a deal on the AFC's number one seed. It isn't often that the Patriots are giving up less than a touchdown in a home playoff game. Belichick admitted before his team's game against the Texans that he was already planning for these Steelers. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin seems to be already making excuses after their game was moved to prime time complaining that ?BB? had an extra 36 hours to prepare. The problem is that if Tomlin were given an extra two months to prepare, he'd still be out moved by the master.
We played against the Steelers last week and lost but if we had to do it again against K.C. we?d still go against them because Alex Smith was downright horrible and the Steelers needed a holding call to get to this point. We've been warned many times this year and in two playoff games as well that the Steelers lack the key ingredients that fuel a championship run and so they have little chance of going into this environment and defeating this juggernaut. The Patriots left their championship mentality on the table last week because Houston was a cakewalk. They won?t leave it on the table here in what we?re calling an easy and convincing victory.
....one of the prime issues will be how the New England defense schemes it up - the preference in the past has been Butler vs. Brown man-to-man, and play the rest of the packages straight. It isn't so much that Butler has stopped Brown (no one is going to), but in that they could trust him enough to not have to gimmick up into double-teams, which can leave holes elsewhere.
Projecting the NE offense is always a difficult gambit because the Pats are so match-up based, and alter their flows from game-to-game based on what they can exploit. As such we can't even read much into the first hint at Pittsburgh this season, when there was a big emphasis on Blount controlling things between the tackles, because that was back with the Steeler LB corps was not in the current configuration. One of the items noted here often, and a point of emphasis in this week's podcast, is how the NE offense is built for flexibility, some pieces coming to the forefront in a game and then disappearing for a while, and even without Gronk the current edition brings some diverse options.
Steelers vs. Patriots
Play: Under 51
What more can be said about these two teams which hasn?t literally been said a million times at this point. The Steelers and Patriots are both very familiar to the postseason over the last ten years. New England is led by QB Tom Brady and Pittsburgh is led by Ben Roethlisberger. These are two of the most capable QB?s in NFL history. Last week the Steelers held on for an 18-16 road win in Kansas City. Roethlisberger had 224 yards and zero TD?s. RB Le?Veon Bell had 170 rushing yards. Note that Pittsburgh scored an average of 24.9 PPG in the regular season to rank the team 11th overall. Pittsburgh looked great defensively in the win over the Chiefs, holding them to just 227 total yards. The Patriots pulled away for a 34-16 win over the Texans last weekend. While New England was third overall on offense with an average of 27.6 PPG, it was its defense which was the difference maker this year, finishing No. 1 in allowing 15.6 PPG. The bottom line is, we?re expecting more of a ?chess match,? where field position ends up playing a big part in the final outcome. The Steelers had a difficult time against the Chiefs on the road, but now face the top defense in the league. This number is just a little bit high in our opinion, consider a second look at the UNDER in the AFC Championship game.
Steelers vs. Patriots
Play: Under 51
The guys from New England have been playing at a level that is scary. Julian Edelman with 12 targets over the last 5 games, Martellus Bennett with 3 TDs over the last 5 games, and lest not forget their future HoF QB and his 14/1 TD to int ratio. It's going to take an awful lot to put the damper on their party. New England RBs can find holes when teams stack the box, and LeGarrette Blount's 1161 YDs isn't a fluke, or are his 18TDs. When Tom runs the fake option, he gets LBs to freeze, which opens up their quick passing attack. The biggest part is what Brady does when at home, with 12 TDs and 311 YPG in 6 games this season - this isn't going to be changed here.
Pittsburgh isn't always able to disguise what they want to do with the best of deception. On 3rd down and short, teams tend to know Pittsburgh are going to run the ball with their 1884 YDs from scrimmage utility RB Le'Veon Bell. The Pittsburgh back is great at doing just pretty much anything - but when teams are ready for it, like the Pats will be, it isn't going to work out all that well. The Pats have been ranked 3rd vs the run for a reason, only giving up 3.9 YPC and 6 TDs on the ground. The Steelers have allowed the 16th most passing yards on the year, vs the this passing game it will be much the same...wash, rinse, repeat. Big Ben on the road has been less than stellar, with 9 of his 16 total ints when visiting teams - the Pats will be bringing enough pressure and the crowd wont let him forget where he is playing.
Columbus is 10-4 in their last 14 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation
Ottawa is 3-13 in their last 16 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation
Vancouver has won only 5 games on the road, Chicago has lost only 5 games at home.
Detroit is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Northern Kentucky is 4-1 ATS their last five home games
La Salle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against conference opponents
VCU is The home team, which are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings of this matchup...and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games
Georgetown is 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. Big East..1-4 ATS last 5 after an ATS loss.
Xavier is 7-3 ATS last 10 home games...and 5-1 ATS last 6 in series.
Phoenix at Toronto
Play: Toronto
This one should be a blowout!....This game is a mismatch. The Suns are just 4-11 straight up over the last month. But one of those wins came at home against the Raptors. I think that Toronto is going to want to get revenge. The Raptors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record, and this Toronto team has an excellent home-court advantage. This game is coming at the end of a three-game road trip for Phoenix. They play against the defending champions on Thursday, then they go to New York City on Saturday, and without rest they will have to head to Toronto on Sunday afternoon before flying home. This is the type of game that NBA players just don't even try in. Toronto will want to get revenge, and this one should be over by halftime. Lay the points.
Suns vs. Raptors
Play: Suns +11?
While Phoenix is not a world beater by any means, they have one of the more potent offenses in the league. They are averaging 106 points on the road this year. Tyson Chandler is absolutely murdering the boards recently averaging just over 17 rebounds a game over his last 7 games. Bledsoe and Booker are both playing very efficiently on the offensive end as well. Phoenix is 15-5-1 ATS over the last 21 games against Toronto, the Suns are 6-1-1 over the last 8, and has won 9 of the last 11 games in Toronto. I don't think Phoenix wins, but their offense keeps it close.
Phoenix vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The Toronto Raptors will try to rebound from their worst offensive performance of the season when they return home Sunday to take on one of the league's worst defensive teams in the Phoenix Suns. The Raptors shot 33.7 percent from the floor and were out-rebounded 51-33 in a 113-78 loss at Charlotte on Friday. Meanwhile, the Suns earned a 107-105 victory at Madison Square Garden last night on Devin Booker's three-pointer with 31 seconds to play. They survived when Carmelo Anthony's three-pointer at the buzzer rolled around the rim and fell out.
Booker had 26 points for the Suns and the 20-year-old has had quite a January. It started modestly with 13 points on January 2nd but in his last eight games, he's scored at least 21 points in each outing, topped by his back-to-back 39-point efforts in Mexico City. He's averaging 28.4 PPG in that stretch and now leads the team in scoring at 20.5 PPG. That barely edges out PG Bledsoe, who checks in at 20.4 PPG, along with 5.1 RPG and 6.1 APG. Bedsoe was 10-for-10 from the line Saturday, played 39 turnover-free minutes and owns 35 assists against only nine giveaways in his last four contests. Then threr is center Tyson Chandler, who grabbed 16 rebounds against the Knicks to set a franchise record with his seventh consecutive game of at least 15 boards (an average of 17.0 per game). However, there is a reason the Suns are 14-29 and it's a defense allowing 111.7 PPG (29th), with that number increasing to 113.3 PPG on the road.
Toronto's 'ugly' loss to the Hornets leaves them at 6-7 over its last 13 games. "We've been in a little funk lately," point guard Kyle Lowry told reporters. "We're not playing on all cylinders right now. I just think it's that time of year. No excuses at all, there's just this mental fatigue." You think? The Raptors may be the East's No. 2 seed with a 28-15 record but I doubt there is one person familiar with the league who thinks the Raptors are a serious threat to the Cavs returning to the NBA Finals.
However, this game is against the Suns and with the Raptors off Friday's embarrassing loss, expect them to put forth an excellent effort. If need be, they can be reminded that one of the team's losses in its recent 6-7 slump came at Phoenix back on Dec 29, a 99-91 Suns victory! The Raptors are the East's highest scoring team and third overall at 110.2 PPG. They are 15-6 SU (13-7-1 ATS) at home, where they average 114.0 PPG. Lay the points!
Warriors vs. Magic
Play: Magic +13?
Even though the Warriors have won 6 games in a row and have covered 4 straight games, this looks like the ideal spot to fade them. Golden State's most recent games have included match-ups with teams like the Rockets, Thunder, and Cavaliers. All of those are teams that are easy for GS to get "up" for in terms of motivational levels. I don't foresee the Warriors as being able to be too excited about this ultra early game at Orlando on a Sunday morning that starts at 9 AM on the body clocks of Golden State (they are accustomed to Pacific time). Also, the Warriors have game on deck at Miami for tomorrow so, even if they do get up big in this game, the late game focus will be on resting guys and getting ready for tomorrow's game. Look for Golden State to win this game but it is very likely to be less than 10 points. That said, with this line jumping all the way from an 11.5 up to as high as a 13.5 as of early gameday morning, there is come nice line value here with the home dog.
George Mason vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -6
As with all plays I release and bet, we start with a side that is undervalued according to my power ratings. That's the case for Richmond in this one. T.J. Cline & ShawnDre' Jones are a tough duo for any opponent, including George Mason. The two combine for 34 ppg, more than 9 rpg, and 9 apg. Besides the defensive matchup issues with these two, GMU also doesn't have any true dishers; no one player to rely upon to set up open looks for others. Richmond defends well, especially on the perimeter and they'll head into this one having covered four of their last five off a loss. The home team in this series is on an 8-1 ATS run and we'll back the home team here.
Central Florida vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -5
UCF has won seven of its past eight games, but I'll side with Memphis here on Sunday, who is also rolling. Memphis has won five of six and averages over 78 points/game. And the Tigers have covered six of the last seven home meetings with the Knights. KJ Lawson had career highs with 28 points and 16 rebounds, Dedric Lawson had 18 points and 10 boards and Memphis beat Houston 70-67 in overtime Thursday night. UCF has struggled on the road as well this season. I like Memphis in this spot at home.
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Pick: Under
Virginia Tech heads out on the road and the Under is 12-5 in Hokies last 17 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Clemson plays tough defense and won't be in a good mood. The Under is 9-3 in Tigers last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. They are also 35-17-1 under the total in Sunday games.
Xavier was 0-3 since Myles Davis returned to team; he played 10 mpg in those games, but is now gone. Musketeers are 2-1 in Big East home games, beating Providence/St John?s- they lost last home game to Creighton. Xavier is 6-2 vs Georgetown in Big East meetings; Musketeers won two of three played here- they won first meeting this year 81-76 on New Year?s Eve, outscoring Hoyas 29-14 on foul line. Hoyas are 0-2 on Big East road, losing by 10 at Marquette, 6 at Providence. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 8-2 vs spread.
Arizona St +8.5
This might be a tough spot for SC, in a sandwich situation between highly-ranked Arizona prior to a crosstown showdown vs. UCLA later in the week. The Trojans have had trouble covering lately as chalk (1-6 last 7 in role), as their offense has adopted more of a halfcourt mindset, with skinny 6-11 soph pivot Chimezie Metu (18.8 ppg last four thru Jan. 18) now the focus of the attack. That has slowed the Trojan pace and likely makes it harder to extend the margin vs. ASU and its 82 ppg offense, led by four 14-ppg-or-better scorers, including 6-5 Buffalo transfer Torian Graham (18.1 ppg).
