04:10 PM MLB [963] CHI CUBS -165 ( J LESTER -L / B STEWART -R )
08:05 PM MLB [972] TOTAL u9-105 (KC ROYALS vrs BOS RED SOX) (VENTURA/RODRIGUEZ)
02:15 PM SOC [25241] FC Barcelona -185 (SPAIN - LA LIGA) over Athletic Bilbao
02:45 PM SOC [30164] Fenerbahce -285 (TURKEY - SUPER LIG )
1 unit bet pays 5.53 ....betdsi line
01:10 PM MLB [951] TOTAL o8-110 (PHI PHILLIES vrs NY METS) (VELASQUEZ/GSELLMAN)
01:35 PM MLB [955] TOTAL o9.5 -109 (COL ROCKIES vrs WAS NATIONALS) (BETTIS/GIOLITO)
04:10 PM MLB [961] CIN REDS -105 ( H BAILEY -R / A BRADLEY -R )
04:10 PM MLB [963] CHI CUBS -1.5 -115 ( J LESTER -L / B STEWART -R )
08:05 PM MLB [972] TOTAL u9-105 (KC ROYALS vrs BOS RED SOX) (VENTURA/RODRIGUEZ)
04:25 PM NFL [279] ARI CARDINALS PK-110
07:00 PM CFB [307] HAMILTON +3.5 -110
07:00 PM NBA [658] MIN LYNX -9-150 (B+2)
02:45 PM SOC [25153] AC Chievo Verona +1-135
02:30 PM SOC [26090] New York Red Bulls -210
01:20 PM MU Round 4 Matchup [7424] G. Woodland -130 (J. Thomas vrs G. Woodland) Barclays
1 unit bet pays 719 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-141, -29.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24...yesterday!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
CC Sabathia - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Look at CC not getting intimidated by the Mariners and flashing his May numbers. Enjoy it while it lasts as it's not going to stay like this in the month ahead....under is 10-3-2 in Sabathia?s last 15 home starts.
The New York Yankees have dismantled the Baltimore Orioles, 14-4 and 13-5 the last two nights. The Yankees are now charging hard, having won four in a row.
Tonight I'll play them, minus a small number, as something has this team inspired, winning its last four games by a combined final of 37-10. Sounds more like a football score.
Forget for a moment the Yankees will get a crack at Kevin Gausman, who is 0-9 with a 5.32 ERA away from Camden Yards this season, let's focus on the fact the pinstripes have quietly climbed to 5 1/2 games back in the American League East, and just 2 1/2 games back in the A.L. Wild Card race. The Yankees are in fourth, while the Orioles are in third.
This is a much different Baltimore team that was riding first place much of the summer, but since June 29 - when the team was 17 games above .500 at 47-30 - has slipped dramatically. Since then, the Orioles are 23-29, they've lost three in a row and seven of 11, and their pitching ranks in the lower half of the league in August, with a 5.68 ERA - fourth worst in the bigs,
The Yankees, meanwhile, rank sixth in the bigs with a .276 batting average this month. Their 133 runs in August rank fourth in baseball.
Look for New York to get it done, and continue its surge into the playoff picture.
Baltimore Orioles +100
The Baltimore Orioles have lost three straight and will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today against the New York Yankees. That's especially the case after getting blown out each of the past two days, but that won't happen again with the edge they have on the mound today.
Kevin Gausman has held his own this season with a 3.92 ERA and 1.323 WHIP over 23 starts. Gausman loves facing the Yankees, posting a 2.03 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in eight career starts against them. He has only given up 3 earned runs over 20 2/3 innings in three starts against the Yankees this season.
C.C. Sabathia got off to a good start this year, but he has since faltered. The left-hander is now 8-10 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 23 starts, including 2-7 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 11 home starts.
The Orioles are 6-2 in Gausman's last eight starts on 4 days of rest. The Yankees are 4-10 in Sabathia's last 14 starts on 4 days of rest. New York is 1-5 in Sabathia's last six home starts. The Yankees are 0-5 in Sabathia's last five home starts vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 1-6 in Sabathia's last seven starts vs. Baltimore.
TOR are 4-11 in Dickeys last 15 home starts....Over is 58-24-4 in MIN last 86 overall...Under is 13-3-1 in Dickeys last 17 Sun. starts.
Los Angeles Angels are 7-25 in their last 32 road games vs. a right-handed starter
Phillies vs. Mets
Play: Over 8
The Mets go for a Big Apple sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies when they two clubs wrap up their three-game series.
The Mets (66-63, 33-30 home) didn?t help their playoff chances losing 16 of 23. But since that skid, they?ve bounced back to go 6-1 in their last seven as they look to cut into a 2.5 game deficit in the race for the second wild-card spot in the NL. The NY offense is hitting on all cylinders and has scored 31 runs in winning its last three games. Meanwhile it?s wait until next year for the Phillies (59-70, 29-37 road) who have lost 12 of their last 14 series vs. the Mets.
A pair of young hurlers will square off with Vince Velasquez tossing ?em down for the Phillies while the Mets will counter with rookie Robert Gsellman. Velasquez (8-6, 4.31 ERA) is 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA in four August starts but does have an impressive 29 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings during that stretch. He opened his season with six scoreless innings at New York but was reached for five runs (two earned) in 4 1/3 frames in a rematch 10 days later.
Gsellman (1-0, 0.00) taking the spot of the injured Jon Niese, who suffered a knee injury Tuesday against St. Louis, and will be making his first major league start.
New York is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 games while Philadelphia is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 road games. The Phillies are also 19-6-2 to the high side in their last 27 overall.
Andrew Triggs - 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I was tempted to lead with Triggs instead as I'm sure people have some questions about Newton. Is that his nickname now? I like the idea, but I'm not sold on the execution...we'll see. Anyway, Triggs had his fourth start since making the transition from the pen and has continued his success, this time against the Indians, which is no easy task. He's a junkballer with a Cutter/Slider mix to go with his 90.5 mph heater and he has a funky delivery that is currently confounding some hitters. To make this easy, he gets the Cards and Sawx next and I really don't see this being something where you were stoked you got in early with Triggs. He's just not that skilled.
The late afternoon board brings us a couple of solid value opportunities, including one game that has already been a major topic across the thread (you?ll have to go to page 24 or so). I?ll start with that one, and it will be one-third of a unit each on #963 Chicago Cubs Full Game/Run Line/Team Total Over (4:10 Eastern). Consider the value ranges to be up to -160, -1.5 Even (there is some + out there), and 4.5 -125. This is one of those games that lines up from both directions, so I want all of the edges in play.
Jon Lester brings extremely good form, a 4-0/1.71 over his last five starts, and he plays well into a Dodger offense that has fallen to dead last in OPS against left-handers, a dismal .647. Meanwhile the Dodgers have to go with Brock Stewart, and there is the chance of this evolving into a ?take one for the team? afternoon. Stewart is not built to eat innings, only averaging 5.2 across his Minor League starts and just 12 frames in three tries with the Dodgers, and there is a mess behind him ? the bullpen could be without Jansen (back-to-back games and six appearances in the last eight), Liberatore (back-to-back and four-in-five) and Baez (back-to-back, including laboring out to 29 pitches yesterday). Not only is that a problem here, but Los Angeles goes to Coors for a series that starts tomorrow, and Dave Roberts knows how much that may tax his pen. The Dodgers are playing for the 13th straight day, and the starters have only managed 58.1 innings across the first 12 days of the stretch.
At Chase Field an under-rated offense goes into an over-rated pitcher this afternoon, which also brings value to #961 Cincinnati Team Total Over (4:10 Eastern), with 4.5 available at -110, and value good up to -120. The Reds are #3 in OPS since the All-Star break, and can get plenty of good swings against what continues to be a disappointing Archie Bradley, who is now at 6-11/5.25 over 140.2 MLB innings, and genuinely looks like someone pitching at that level ? in particular note his ugly 4.9 BB/9 into an offense that leads MLB in OBP since the break. It isn?t just the chance to play into Bradley, but also a worn-out Diamondbacks bullpen that has fallen to dead last in ERA for the full season at 5.11, and is at a simply hideous 6.43 since the All Star break.
Tampa Bay @ HOUSTON
Tampa Bay +101 over HOUSTON
The day we refuse to take back anything with Chris Archer against Doug Fister is the day we?ll send this keyboard to Cooperstown and call it a career. Dog Fister is a soft-tossing right-hander that has walked 50 batters in 151 innings while striking out 101. His fastball sits at 86 MPH. Fister?s swing and miss rate is 6%. Fister relies on luck to get through games and he?s received it with an 86% strand rate over his past 10 starts. That?s a rather remarkable number when you consider he can?t get out of jams on his own because of his low swing and miss rate. Remember, Fister limped into free agency with more lost velocity, compounded by a month-long forearm injury. He spent most of August last year in the Nationals bullpen. Fister?s surface stats (3.59 ERA) suggests he has good skills but he does not and you may want to see them first before spotting a tag with him against the Chris Archer.
Justin Verlander was a -190 favorite over Ricky Nolasco on Friday. R.A. Dickey is a -180 favorite over Kirk Gibson today. We can assure you that this is a bigger pitching mismatch than the aforementioned other two, not to mention dozens more games this season. Chris Archer has posted some of the widest home/road splits of any starter so far in 2016. He has a sharp 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home, compared to a rough 5.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road. Those misleading road surface stats are the reason Archer is a pooch here. Before you use that split to pass on him here, consider the following. Archer?s skills have nearly been identical at home and on the road. The difference is in luck-driven numbers. A high 36% hit rate, low 64% strand rate and high 22% hr/f have conspired to sabotage his road stats. Archer has 192 K?s in 162 innings and the Astronauts have never seen a pitch they didn?t like. There's some good road positive regression potential here.
Blair will return to the Majors for the first time since being demoted to Triple-A Gwinnett in June. The young hurler has battled inconsistent command, but his fastball velocity has improved as he?s recently sat between 93-95 mph.
SF have lost 7 of Bumgarner's last 10 starts.
Seattle vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The Mariners and White Sox will square off in the rubber match of a three-game series Sunday afternoon. ?King Felix? outdueled Chris Sale in Friday?s opener 3-1 but Chicago easily bested Seattle 9-3 Saturday night. The Mariners are 7 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West but just two games behind Baltimore for the second wild-card spot. Seven of Seattle?s next 11 games come against Texas, so the Mariners will be tested shortly. Are they a playoff contender or not? Chicago has already answered that question with a resounding no. The 62-66 White Sox are 7 1/2 games back of the second wild card spot and five teams are ahead of them!
Sunday?s pitching matchup will feature Seattle?s Taijuan Walker (4-8, 4.14 ERA) and Chicago?s Carlos Rodon (4-8, 4.02 ERA). Seattle has high hopes for Walker but the 24-year-old has had an up-and-down season which has included a month-long stint on the DL plus a brief demotion to Triple-A earlier this month. He allowed four runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings against the New York Yankees this past Tuesday, his first start since rejoining the big-league team. Chicago?s Rodon is 4-8 like Walker on the season (Chicago is 8-13 in all of his starts) but he?s been on quite a run here in August, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in four starts (team is 3-1). His last outing was his best effort of the month, allowing just three hits in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to beat Philadelphia 9-1 on Tuesday.
Walker is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox and Rodon is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts against the Mariners (team is 2-0), both coming in 2015. Rodon?s recent form makes Chicago tough to go against plus when one throws in Walker?s 2016?s road record (1-4 with a 5.34 ERA / team is 1-6), the play is definitely on the White Sox.
Braves at Giants
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a terrible Atlanta offense is in town. The Under is 7-3 in Braves last 10 Sunday games. They face San Fran ace Madison Bumgarner (2.44 ERA), who is 7-3 at home with a 1.77 ERA. The Under is 10-4 in the Giants last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, plus 7-3 under the total when Bumgarner faces a team with a losing record. And the Under is 3-1-2 in the last six meetings.
Arizona Cardinals +1
It's "dress rehearsal" week in the NFL with most teams expected to have their regulars on the field for a good amount of time. That also means more actiual game planning than in the other exhibition games for the majority of NFL teams. But that really doesn't mean a great deal to me from an analytical standpoint, as the games still don't count and they really aren't played as though they do.
That said, I love seeing information that gives me a clue as tlo a team's mindset for its upcoming game. The games I've done best with this pre-season have been those where there were revealing quotes involved. Here's one that is as plain as day for this week. This one is from Arizona GM Steve Keim.
"We can't just go out there when the season starts and turn the switch on."
The Cardinals first team offense has been really dull in the first two games. It sure sounds like there's a sense of urgency here, and that's coming from the top of the food chain as far as team management is concerned. It might only be a pre-season game that doesn't count. But the last game this team plays that did count was brutal and the comments here indicate that there's a feeling that the team needs to get something positive accomplished this week. That might not be so easy against a tough looking Houston defense. But if Arizona is treating this game with what at least sounds like regular season focus, then I am definitely willing to back the Cardinals this weekend.
Cinci @ JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE -1? -106 over Cinci
BEST LINES: -1? -106 Bet365 -1? -110 SportsInteraction -1? -110 5DIMES -1? -110
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
8:00 PM EST. The Bengals are 1-1 in the preseason and really are not in any desperate need of anything here. Cincinnati is a big favorite to have another good year and make the playoffs. They?ll sell out every home game and they?ll feature a bunch of dynamic players. The final two weeks are all about staying healthy. Furthermore, Marvin Lewis appears to put much more emphasis on Week 4 than he does on Week 3. Lewis is 4-9 in his career in Week 3 but 10-3 in Week 4. This game now becomes all about the Jaguars.
If this truly is the dress rehearsal for the regular season, we should not be surprised to see the Jaguars take their rightful place as a team nobody wants to bet on. They are 0-2 this preseason and are not very appealing as a favorite in any scenario, which leaves them undervalued here in what could be considered a ?must win? game at home. Even though they are the only team in town, the Jags struggle to sell seats locally after years of losing and not making the playoffs. Florida is a college football state first so entertainment dollars are not at a premium. With much of the top tier of their stadium covered, the Jags still only fill their modified 64,000 seats 90% of the time which is 27th of 32 teams. Now Jacksonville has a chance to create interest in this nationally televised game. For Cincinnati, being featured nationally is nothing new, as we see them four, five or six teams a year, every year. We trust it is much more important to Gus Bradley and the Jags ownership to create some optimism in the market than it is to Marvin Lewis and the Bengals. Preseason games are unimportant in so many ways but for the Jags, this is without question the preseason game that holds importance, not only because they?re 0-2 but because it is a rare game in which they are featured nationally. That figures to jack up this unrecognizable squad and it jacks us up as well to get behind them here.
Hamilton +167 over CALGARY
In his first game back after being on the sidelines for a year, Zack Collaros threw for 331 yards in British Columbia. The Tigercats would go on to lose that game, 45-38. In his second game back against the Riders, Collaros would throw for 421 yards in a 53-7 wipeout. Keep in mind that the ?Cats had a huge lead throughout last week and therefore was more interested in moving the chains and killing the clock in the second half than they were about scoring points. The Tigercats barely broke a sweat last week and they?re coming off consecutive games in which they scored a combined 91 points. They also have an outstanding defense. Collaros and the ?Cats offense will now play together for the third consecutive week and while expecting them to score 45 points every week is unreasonable, it could happen, as Hamiton?s offense, as it stands now, can trade punches and then some with any team in this league when the CFL?s best QB is healthy. In their last six quarters, the ?Cats outscored opponents 78-20 and returned to the complimentary football that made them so dangerous through much of the last three seasons. The defense is getting stops and turnovers while the offense takes advantage of most opportunities. If that?s not enough, return man Brandon Banks gives them a dynamic ball carrier on special teams.
Meanwhile, the Stamps are coming off a 37-9 blowout win of their own last week against the B.C. Lions in the marquee matchup of the week. Every CFL fan watched that one but probably switched channels early in the second half because it was such a blowout. In a year in which the underdog has been king, Calgary has reeled off five wins in a row but let?s not get carried away here. Two of those victories were against Saskatchewan. One was against Winnipeg before Matt Nichols was handed the reins. Against the Riders two weeks ago, Calgary was outgained by 35 yards. Overall, the Stamps have been outgained in four of their eight games. We take nothing away from the Stamps, as they don't make many mistakes and they score points. However, this is a year in which every single team in the league besides the Stamps has shown some huge flaws. Calgary has yet to face what is in store for them here because Hamilton with Collaros running the show now becomes the least flawed team in the CFL. It?s now the Stamps turn to show their flaws. At worst, Hamilton has a 50/50 shot of winning here and while the points look appealing, the money line takeback looks even more appealing.
08:05 PM MLB [972] TOTAL u9-105 (KC ROYALS vrs BOS RED SOX) (VENTURA/RODRIGUEZ)
02:15 PM SOC [25241] FC Barcelona -185 (SPAIN - LA LIGA) over Athletic Bilbao
02:45 PM SOC [30164] Fenerbahce -285 (TURKEY - SUPER LIG )
1 unit bet pays 5.53 ....betdsi line
01:10 PM MLB [951] TOTAL o8-110 (PHI PHILLIES vrs NY METS) (VELASQUEZ/GSELLMAN)
01:35 PM MLB [955] TOTAL o9.5 -109 (COL ROCKIES vrs WAS NATIONALS) (BETTIS/GIOLITO)
04:10 PM MLB [961] CIN REDS -105 ( H BAILEY -R / A BRADLEY -R )
04:10 PM MLB [963] CHI CUBS -1.5 -115 ( J LESTER -L / B STEWART -R )
08:05 PM MLB [972] TOTAL u9-105 (KC ROYALS vrs BOS RED SOX) (VENTURA/RODRIGUEZ)
04:25 PM NFL [279] ARI CARDINALS PK-110
07:00 PM CFB [307] HAMILTON +3.5 -110
07:00 PM NBA [658] MIN LYNX -9-150 (B+2)
02:45 PM SOC [25153] AC Chievo Verona +1-135
02:30 PM SOC [26090] New York Red Bulls -210
01:20 PM MU Round 4 Matchup [7424] G. Woodland -130 (J. Thomas vrs G. Woodland) Barclays
1 unit bet pays 719 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-141, -29.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24...yesterday!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
CC Sabathia - 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Look at CC not getting intimidated by the Mariners and flashing his May numbers. Enjoy it while it lasts as it's not going to stay like this in the month ahead....under is 10-3-2 in Sabathia?s last 15 home starts.
The New York Yankees have dismantled the Baltimore Orioles, 14-4 and 13-5 the last two nights. The Yankees are now charging hard, having won four in a row.
Tonight I'll play them, minus a small number, as something has this team inspired, winning its last four games by a combined final of 37-10. Sounds more like a football score.
Forget for a moment the Yankees will get a crack at Kevin Gausman, who is 0-9 with a 5.32 ERA away from Camden Yards this season, let's focus on the fact the pinstripes have quietly climbed to 5 1/2 games back in the American League East, and just 2 1/2 games back in the A.L. Wild Card race. The Yankees are in fourth, while the Orioles are in third.
This is a much different Baltimore team that was riding first place much of the summer, but since June 29 - when the team was 17 games above .500 at 47-30 - has slipped dramatically. Since then, the Orioles are 23-29, they've lost three in a row and seven of 11, and their pitching ranks in the lower half of the league in August, with a 5.68 ERA - fourth worst in the bigs,
The Yankees, meanwhile, rank sixth in the bigs with a .276 batting average this month. Their 133 runs in August rank fourth in baseball.
Look for New York to get it done, and continue its surge into the playoff picture.
Baltimore Orioles +100
The Baltimore Orioles have lost three straight and will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today against the New York Yankees. That's especially the case after getting blown out each of the past two days, but that won't happen again with the edge they have on the mound today.
Kevin Gausman has held his own this season with a 3.92 ERA and 1.323 WHIP over 23 starts. Gausman loves facing the Yankees, posting a 2.03 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in eight career starts against them. He has only given up 3 earned runs over 20 2/3 innings in three starts against the Yankees this season.
C.C. Sabathia got off to a good start this year, but he has since faltered. The left-hander is now 8-10 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 23 starts, including 2-7 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 11 home starts.
The Orioles are 6-2 in Gausman's last eight starts on 4 days of rest. The Yankees are 4-10 in Sabathia's last 14 starts on 4 days of rest. New York is 1-5 in Sabathia's last six home starts. The Yankees are 0-5 in Sabathia's last five home starts vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 1-6 in Sabathia's last seven starts vs. Baltimore.
TOR are 4-11 in Dickeys last 15 home starts....Over is 58-24-4 in MIN last 86 overall...Under is 13-3-1 in Dickeys last 17 Sun. starts.
Los Angeles Angels are 7-25 in their last 32 road games vs. a right-handed starter
Phillies vs. Mets
Play: Over 8
The Mets go for a Big Apple sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies when they two clubs wrap up their three-game series.
The Mets (66-63, 33-30 home) didn?t help their playoff chances losing 16 of 23. But since that skid, they?ve bounced back to go 6-1 in their last seven as they look to cut into a 2.5 game deficit in the race for the second wild-card spot in the NL. The NY offense is hitting on all cylinders and has scored 31 runs in winning its last three games. Meanwhile it?s wait until next year for the Phillies (59-70, 29-37 road) who have lost 12 of their last 14 series vs. the Mets.
A pair of young hurlers will square off with Vince Velasquez tossing ?em down for the Phillies while the Mets will counter with rookie Robert Gsellman. Velasquez (8-6, 4.31 ERA) is 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA in four August starts but does have an impressive 29 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings during that stretch. He opened his season with six scoreless innings at New York but was reached for five runs (two earned) in 4 1/3 frames in a rematch 10 days later.
Gsellman (1-0, 0.00) taking the spot of the injured Jon Niese, who suffered a knee injury Tuesday against St. Louis, and will be making his first major league start.
New York is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 games while Philadelphia is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 road games. The Phillies are also 19-6-2 to the high side in their last 27 overall.
Andrew Triggs - 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I was tempted to lead with Triggs instead as I'm sure people have some questions about Newton. Is that his nickname now? I like the idea, but I'm not sold on the execution...we'll see. Anyway, Triggs had his fourth start since making the transition from the pen and has continued his success, this time against the Indians, which is no easy task. He's a junkballer with a Cutter/Slider mix to go with his 90.5 mph heater and he has a funky delivery that is currently confounding some hitters. To make this easy, he gets the Cards and Sawx next and I really don't see this being something where you were stoked you got in early with Triggs. He's just not that skilled.
The late afternoon board brings us a couple of solid value opportunities, including one game that has already been a major topic across the thread (you?ll have to go to page 24 or so). I?ll start with that one, and it will be one-third of a unit each on #963 Chicago Cubs Full Game/Run Line/Team Total Over (4:10 Eastern). Consider the value ranges to be up to -160, -1.5 Even (there is some + out there), and 4.5 -125. This is one of those games that lines up from both directions, so I want all of the edges in play.
Jon Lester brings extremely good form, a 4-0/1.71 over his last five starts, and he plays well into a Dodger offense that has fallen to dead last in OPS against left-handers, a dismal .647. Meanwhile the Dodgers have to go with Brock Stewart, and there is the chance of this evolving into a ?take one for the team? afternoon. Stewart is not built to eat innings, only averaging 5.2 across his Minor League starts and just 12 frames in three tries with the Dodgers, and there is a mess behind him ? the bullpen could be without Jansen (back-to-back games and six appearances in the last eight), Liberatore (back-to-back and four-in-five) and Baez (back-to-back, including laboring out to 29 pitches yesterday). Not only is that a problem here, but Los Angeles goes to Coors for a series that starts tomorrow, and Dave Roberts knows how much that may tax his pen. The Dodgers are playing for the 13th straight day, and the starters have only managed 58.1 innings across the first 12 days of the stretch.
At Chase Field an under-rated offense goes into an over-rated pitcher this afternoon, which also brings value to #961 Cincinnati Team Total Over (4:10 Eastern), with 4.5 available at -110, and value good up to -120. The Reds are #3 in OPS since the All-Star break, and can get plenty of good swings against what continues to be a disappointing Archie Bradley, who is now at 6-11/5.25 over 140.2 MLB innings, and genuinely looks like someone pitching at that level ? in particular note his ugly 4.9 BB/9 into an offense that leads MLB in OBP since the break. It isn?t just the chance to play into Bradley, but also a worn-out Diamondbacks bullpen that has fallen to dead last in ERA for the full season at 5.11, and is at a simply hideous 6.43 since the All Star break.
Tampa Bay @ HOUSTON
Tampa Bay +101 over HOUSTON
The day we refuse to take back anything with Chris Archer against Doug Fister is the day we?ll send this keyboard to Cooperstown and call it a career. Dog Fister is a soft-tossing right-hander that has walked 50 batters in 151 innings while striking out 101. His fastball sits at 86 MPH. Fister?s swing and miss rate is 6%. Fister relies on luck to get through games and he?s received it with an 86% strand rate over his past 10 starts. That?s a rather remarkable number when you consider he can?t get out of jams on his own because of his low swing and miss rate. Remember, Fister limped into free agency with more lost velocity, compounded by a month-long forearm injury. He spent most of August last year in the Nationals bullpen. Fister?s surface stats (3.59 ERA) suggests he has good skills but he does not and you may want to see them first before spotting a tag with him against the Chris Archer.
Justin Verlander was a -190 favorite over Ricky Nolasco on Friday. R.A. Dickey is a -180 favorite over Kirk Gibson today. We can assure you that this is a bigger pitching mismatch than the aforementioned other two, not to mention dozens more games this season. Chris Archer has posted some of the widest home/road splits of any starter so far in 2016. He has a sharp 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home, compared to a rough 5.97 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road. Those misleading road surface stats are the reason Archer is a pooch here. Before you use that split to pass on him here, consider the following. Archer?s skills have nearly been identical at home and on the road. The difference is in luck-driven numbers. A high 36% hit rate, low 64% strand rate and high 22% hr/f have conspired to sabotage his road stats. Archer has 192 K?s in 162 innings and the Astronauts have never seen a pitch they didn?t like. There's some good road positive regression potential here.
Blair will return to the Majors for the first time since being demoted to Triple-A Gwinnett in June. The young hurler has battled inconsistent command, but his fastball velocity has improved as he?s recently sat between 93-95 mph.
SF have lost 7 of Bumgarner's last 10 starts.
Seattle vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The Mariners and White Sox will square off in the rubber match of a three-game series Sunday afternoon. ?King Felix? outdueled Chris Sale in Friday?s opener 3-1 but Chicago easily bested Seattle 9-3 Saturday night. The Mariners are 7 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West but just two games behind Baltimore for the second wild-card spot. Seven of Seattle?s next 11 games come against Texas, so the Mariners will be tested shortly. Are they a playoff contender or not? Chicago has already answered that question with a resounding no. The 62-66 White Sox are 7 1/2 games back of the second wild card spot and five teams are ahead of them!
Sunday?s pitching matchup will feature Seattle?s Taijuan Walker (4-8, 4.14 ERA) and Chicago?s Carlos Rodon (4-8, 4.02 ERA). Seattle has high hopes for Walker but the 24-year-old has had an up-and-down season which has included a month-long stint on the DL plus a brief demotion to Triple-A earlier this month. He allowed four runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings against the New York Yankees this past Tuesday, his first start since rejoining the big-league team. Chicago?s Rodon is 4-8 like Walker on the season (Chicago is 8-13 in all of his starts) but he?s been on quite a run here in August, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in four starts (team is 3-1). His last outing was his best effort of the month, allowing just three hits in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to beat Philadelphia 9-1 on Tuesday.
Walker is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox and Rodon is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts against the Mariners (team is 2-0), both coming in 2015. Rodon?s recent form makes Chicago tough to go against plus when one throws in Walker?s 2016?s road record (1-4 with a 5.34 ERA / team is 1-6), the play is definitely on the White Sox.
Braves at Giants
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a terrible Atlanta offense is in town. The Under is 7-3 in Braves last 10 Sunday games. They face San Fran ace Madison Bumgarner (2.44 ERA), who is 7-3 at home with a 1.77 ERA. The Under is 10-4 in the Giants last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, plus 7-3 under the total when Bumgarner faces a team with a losing record. And the Under is 3-1-2 in the last six meetings.
Arizona Cardinals +1
It's "dress rehearsal" week in the NFL with most teams expected to have their regulars on the field for a good amount of time. That also means more actiual game planning than in the other exhibition games for the majority of NFL teams. But that really doesn't mean a great deal to me from an analytical standpoint, as the games still don't count and they really aren't played as though they do.
That said, I love seeing information that gives me a clue as tlo a team's mindset for its upcoming game. The games I've done best with this pre-season have been those where there were revealing quotes involved. Here's one that is as plain as day for this week. This one is from Arizona GM Steve Keim.
"We can't just go out there when the season starts and turn the switch on."
The Cardinals first team offense has been really dull in the first two games. It sure sounds like there's a sense of urgency here, and that's coming from the top of the food chain as far as team management is concerned. It might only be a pre-season game that doesn't count. But the last game this team plays that did count was brutal and the comments here indicate that there's a feeling that the team needs to get something positive accomplished this week. That might not be so easy against a tough looking Houston defense. But if Arizona is treating this game with what at least sounds like regular season focus, then I am definitely willing to back the Cardinals this weekend.
Cinci @ JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE -1? -106 over Cinci
BEST LINES: -1? -106 Bet365 -1? -110 SportsInteraction -1? -110 5DIMES -1? -110
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
8:00 PM EST. The Bengals are 1-1 in the preseason and really are not in any desperate need of anything here. Cincinnati is a big favorite to have another good year and make the playoffs. They?ll sell out every home game and they?ll feature a bunch of dynamic players. The final two weeks are all about staying healthy. Furthermore, Marvin Lewis appears to put much more emphasis on Week 4 than he does on Week 3. Lewis is 4-9 in his career in Week 3 but 10-3 in Week 4. This game now becomes all about the Jaguars.
If this truly is the dress rehearsal for the regular season, we should not be surprised to see the Jaguars take their rightful place as a team nobody wants to bet on. They are 0-2 this preseason and are not very appealing as a favorite in any scenario, which leaves them undervalued here in what could be considered a ?must win? game at home. Even though they are the only team in town, the Jags struggle to sell seats locally after years of losing and not making the playoffs. Florida is a college football state first so entertainment dollars are not at a premium. With much of the top tier of their stadium covered, the Jags still only fill their modified 64,000 seats 90% of the time which is 27th of 32 teams. Now Jacksonville has a chance to create interest in this nationally televised game. For Cincinnati, being featured nationally is nothing new, as we see them four, five or six teams a year, every year. We trust it is much more important to Gus Bradley and the Jags ownership to create some optimism in the market than it is to Marvin Lewis and the Bengals. Preseason games are unimportant in so many ways but for the Jags, this is without question the preseason game that holds importance, not only because they?re 0-2 but because it is a rare game in which they are featured nationally. That figures to jack up this unrecognizable squad and it jacks us up as well to get behind them here.
Hamilton +167 over CALGARY
In his first game back after being on the sidelines for a year, Zack Collaros threw for 331 yards in British Columbia. The Tigercats would go on to lose that game, 45-38. In his second game back against the Riders, Collaros would throw for 421 yards in a 53-7 wipeout. Keep in mind that the ?Cats had a huge lead throughout last week and therefore was more interested in moving the chains and killing the clock in the second half than they were about scoring points. The Tigercats barely broke a sweat last week and they?re coming off consecutive games in which they scored a combined 91 points. They also have an outstanding defense. Collaros and the ?Cats offense will now play together for the third consecutive week and while expecting them to score 45 points every week is unreasonable, it could happen, as Hamiton?s offense, as it stands now, can trade punches and then some with any team in this league when the CFL?s best QB is healthy. In their last six quarters, the ?Cats outscored opponents 78-20 and returned to the complimentary football that made them so dangerous through much of the last three seasons. The defense is getting stops and turnovers while the offense takes advantage of most opportunities. If that?s not enough, return man Brandon Banks gives them a dynamic ball carrier on special teams.
Meanwhile, the Stamps are coming off a 37-9 blowout win of their own last week against the B.C. Lions in the marquee matchup of the week. Every CFL fan watched that one but probably switched channels early in the second half because it was such a blowout. In a year in which the underdog has been king, Calgary has reeled off five wins in a row but let?s not get carried away here. Two of those victories were against Saskatchewan. One was against Winnipeg before Matt Nichols was handed the reins. Against the Riders two weeks ago, Calgary was outgained by 35 yards. Overall, the Stamps have been outgained in four of their eight games. We take nothing away from the Stamps, as they don't make many mistakes and they score points. However, this is a year in which every single team in the league besides the Stamps has shown some huge flaws. Calgary has yet to face what is in store for them here because Hamilton with Collaros running the show now becomes the least flawed team in the CFL. It?s now the Stamps turn to show their flaws. At worst, Hamilton has a 50/50 shot of winning here and while the points look appealing, the money line takeback looks even more appealing.
