good week last week to almost get back to + money for the year. so probably a good week to fade me. i'm here to help. 
oakland/kc under (36.5) 1 unit. oakland has played 5 straight unders. nothing surprising here... their offense is pitiful and their defense is playing well. gotta figure trent green will be knocking the rust off today. unless aaron brooks throws 4 pick-6's (always a possibility), this game should stay under the total.
indy/dallas over (49.5) 2 units. very strange, this game. joe public is all over the colts. in the local paper, 15 people pick the winner of every game and only 2 of them took dallas. yet dallas is now favored in some places by a point. early in the week, i was even thinking dallas could win this game. but i'm seeing more and more 'experts' picking dallas. that is usually the kiss of death. roy williiams is one of the best hitters in the NFL, but he is terrible in pass coverage. i don't see dallas stopping indy. so i think the best play on this game is the over.
tampa (-3) 2 units. you'd think i'd get off the tampa bandwagon by now. they covered their first 3 with gradkowski, but now they've dropped 3 straight to the number. they are getting a wounded washington team today though. clinton portis is out and jason campbell (JASON CAMPBELL :scared ) is starting at qb. their biggest playmaker, santana moss, is doubtful. tampa should be able to put up at least 10 points, which is all they will need to cover. the 'skins have only covered one of their last 5 games, and they should have lost that game to dallas.
wash/tb under (33.5) 1 unit. can either of these teams top 17 today?
miami (-3) 1 unit. don't look now, but the dolphins have won and covered 2 straight since their bye. without culpepper turning the ball over 6 times a game, they have a chance now. remember the run they went on to finish last year? they're doing it again. the vikings are really struggling after showing some potential early in the year. two teams going in opposite directions.
denver (-2.5) 1 unit. gonna be very tough for the chargers to bounce back from last week's win and re-focus on denver. LT averages something like 54 ypg at denver and phillip rivers is making his first start there. the denver defense will be the difference here.
oakland/kc under (36.5) 1 unit. oakland has played 5 straight unders. nothing surprising here... their offense is pitiful and their defense is playing well. gotta figure trent green will be knocking the rust off today. unless aaron brooks throws 4 pick-6's (always a possibility), this game should stay under the total.
indy/dallas over (49.5) 2 units. very strange, this game. joe public is all over the colts. in the local paper, 15 people pick the winner of every game and only 2 of them took dallas. yet dallas is now favored in some places by a point. early in the week, i was even thinking dallas could win this game. but i'm seeing more and more 'experts' picking dallas. that is usually the kiss of death. roy williiams is one of the best hitters in the NFL, but he is terrible in pass coverage. i don't see dallas stopping indy. so i think the best play on this game is the over.
tampa (-3) 2 units. you'd think i'd get off the tampa bandwagon by now. they covered their first 3 with gradkowski, but now they've dropped 3 straight to the number. they are getting a wounded washington team today though. clinton portis is out and jason campbell (JASON CAMPBELL :scared ) is starting at qb. their biggest playmaker, santana moss, is doubtful. tampa should be able to put up at least 10 points, which is all they will need to cover. the 'skins have only covered one of their last 5 games, and they should have lost that game to dallas.
wash/tb under (33.5) 1 unit. can either of these teams top 17 today?
miami (-3) 1 unit. don't look now, but the dolphins have won and covered 2 straight since their bye. without culpepper turning the ball over 6 times a game, they have a chance now. remember the run they went on to finish last year? they're doing it again. the vikings are really struggling after showing some potential early in the year. two teams going in opposite directions.
denver (-2.5) 1 unit. gonna be very tough for the chargers to bounce back from last week's win and re-focus on denver. LT averages something like 54 ypg at denver and phillip rivers is making his first start there. the denver defense will be the difference here.
