Boston @ Toronto -145 / 10O15
I am a student of riding the streak and good hitting beats good pitching, and cold teams find a way to lose. If you happen to witness yesterday's game in Toronto you would see that the Blue Jays had numerous chances to score, and could not do some of the basics. Players getting doubled off with no outs, blowing the sac bunt, and some defensive blunders all led to a red sox win. I have no confidence in putting money on a team that is playing like this. Of course I have more than that to back my selection.
Carpenter who I consider the jay's ace gets the start today and he is 1-3, 5.29 era lifetime vs. the sox. He faces a lineup that hits him quite well as evident by these numbers:
Valentin .389
Manny .455
Offerman .400
Nixon .417
Lewis .316
Everett .600
At home this year he is 0-2, with an era over five, and the era is also over five when he pitches in the day time.
Cone goes for the sox and he is 7-7, 3.69 lifetime vs. the jays. His comeback has been brought around very slowly by the sox and for good reason as he is only pitched past the third inning once this year. Which means you should look at the bullpen and in this case for the red sox they are playing well of late. They were the main reason for the last two wins getting out of every jam, (with a little help from the blue jays) and in the last three games they have a minute whip of 0.97.
Hitting is a problem for the jays of late as in the last ten the only hit .191 against righties and averaging 2.4 runs per game.
Against cone the jays will have to rely on:
Stewart .318 and
Gonzalez .400
because the meat of the lineup has difficulty with cone:
delgado .094
fulmer .200
Mondesi .000 (0-5)
The sox are hitting the ball at .288 against righties in the last ten and scoring 4.22 runs per game. The meat of the order is hitting well as manny is his usual self, and everett is confident at the plate, proving it by batting lefty vs. a lefty for the game winner yesterday.
Trends:
Toronto:
2-11 last 13 home games
1-6 last 7 home Day games
1-6 last 7 games
4-10 in 4th game of a homestand L14
L6 of 9 on Sundays
Carpenter (R) 3-5 TSR vs Boston 5.29 ERA
Boston:
5-1 in the last six meetings this season.
The Red Sox are 19-10 vs. their own division.
4-0 last 4 games
W6 of 8 on Sunday
Finally behind the plate is Larry Young and the home team when he is behind the plate is 45-56 L4 years.....
I'll take my chances on the Jays blowing another one....
Boston Red Sox +135
Sneaks
