fresh off a great day (9-2) yesterday, i present some wonderful fade opportunities...
indiana (+2) 3 units. oh, this is tough. going 100% against my gut on this one. indiana has failed to cover, what, 62* straight games? and here comes big, bad michigan state to bloomington. i know, i know... i just don't see how the hoosiers can win this game. killingsworth is terrible. extremely talented, but a head case. he's great at simply taking himself out of a game. but michigan state is 2-6 on the road in conference. and they're laying points. i simply have to go against a mediocre road team laying points against a team desperate for a win. who knows, maybe marco will look like he did against duke early in the season.
uconn (-7) 3 units. this line is a point higher than i expected. they are clearly looking for 'nova money. and it's VERY difficult to lay 7 points to this villanova team. i had a small play on 'nova in the first matchup. they flat-out out-hustled uconn to win that game. they probably played about as well as they can. i think today it will be uconn that plays with the higher energy level. they need to establish their inside game and force 'nova to match up with them, instead of the other way around. i think they can do that today at home. if 'nova can play with the same intensity they did last week, then i will tip my cap to them.
ucla (-9.5) 2 units. another game where it looks like they want you to take the dog. oregon hasn't lost a game by more than 7 since 1/21. of course, that was the last road game they played against a good team. (i don't count arizona as a good team this year.) ucla won at oregon by 7 earlier this year, holding the ducks to 32% shooting. i expect more of the same today. ucla will ride the home crowd to a solid DD win.
FL/ALA under (140) 2 units. both teams are fighting to hang onto 2nd place in their respective divisions. there will be some effort on defense.
i hate when i look back at my plays and i see 2 out of 3 are favs. oh well, it is what it is.
*estimated number. i believe the actual number is closer to 10.
indiana (+2) 3 units. oh, this is tough. going 100% against my gut on this one. indiana has failed to cover, what, 62* straight games? and here comes big, bad michigan state to bloomington. i know, i know... i just don't see how the hoosiers can win this game. killingsworth is terrible. extremely talented, but a head case. he's great at simply taking himself out of a game. but michigan state is 2-6 on the road in conference. and they're laying points. i simply have to go against a mediocre road team laying points against a team desperate for a win. who knows, maybe marco will look like he did against duke early in the season.
uconn (-7) 3 units. this line is a point higher than i expected. they are clearly looking for 'nova money. and it's VERY difficult to lay 7 points to this villanova team. i had a small play on 'nova in the first matchup. they flat-out out-hustled uconn to win that game. they probably played about as well as they can. i think today it will be uconn that plays with the higher energy level. they need to establish their inside game and force 'nova to match up with them, instead of the other way around. i think they can do that today at home. if 'nova can play with the same intensity they did last week, then i will tip my cap to them.
ucla (-9.5) 2 units. another game where it looks like they want you to take the dog. oregon hasn't lost a game by more than 7 since 1/21. of course, that was the last road game they played against a good team. (i don't count arizona as a good team this year.) ucla won at oregon by 7 earlier this year, holding the ducks to 32% shooting. i expect more of the same today. ucla will ride the home crowd to a solid DD win.
FL/ALA under (140) 2 units. both teams are fighting to hang onto 2nd place in their respective divisions. there will be some effort on defense.
i hate when i look back at my plays and i see 2 out of 3 are favs. oh well, it is what it is.
*estimated number. i believe the actual number is closer to 10.
