Week 4 NFL action
Chargers (1-2) @ Patriots (2-1)- Bolts lost last seven visits to this site; last time they beat Pats here was '70, when they were Boston Patriots. With Bruschi, Harrison out for champs, have to wonder how long before they miss these great players. San Diego had emotional game vs Eli and Giants last week; this is first of five east coast trips for them. Bolts forced only four 3-and-outs in 28 drives on defense, so they'll give up yards; both their losses came in last minute. Pats 31st in red zone defense (6.00 pts/drive) and have just three takeaways- they're also averaging just 63.7 rushing yards per game. Still, hard to go against them- they have knack for winning.
Broncos (2-1) @ Jaguars (2-1)- Denver on road for non-divisional tilt, after beating pair of AFC West foes at home, so good spot to go against them here, with long trip on short work week, at site where they lost last two visits by combined total of four points. Home side won five of six in series, with five of six totals 54+ (last meeting ended 7-6). Broncos last in NFL in third down conversions (8-32), 27th in red zone offense (3.36) but have still gone 3-and-out just six times in 32 drives, best in NFL. Jags are +6 in turnovers already, losing only 10-3 at Colts- they've run ball for 128.7 yards per game. Denver lost only previous road game, 34-10 at Miami.
Texans (0-2) @ Bengals (3-0)- Houston's start is so bad they already fired offensive coach; off a bye, have to check what changes they've made, as they visit hot Bengal squad that has already forced sixteen turnovers (+12 TO ratio) and has thrown 27 less incomplete passes than their foes. Cincy started eight drives in enemy territory (+8), have had field position edges of 14-20-17 yards- they're first team in 35 years to pick off five passes two games in row. All three Bengal games stayed under total. Texans have zero takeaways, been outscored 39-7 in first half, and averaged 1.0/3.2 yards per pass try in their two games. Texans' bye not exactly restful, as they evacuated home due to Hurricane Rita.
Colts (3-0) @ Titans (1-2)- Unbeaten Indy struggling on offense (four TD's/28 drives, one first half TD), winning with defense, allowing total of 16 points in three games, no TD's in last two. Stingy Colts have allowed only single FG on 15 enemy drives that started 80+ yards from Indy paydirt (4th in NFL). Colts won last four series games by average score of 36-19. Titans scored 52 points in last two games, routed Ravens in only home game; they're 30th in red zone offense (3.00), 29th in red zone defense (5.67), but have forced 16 3-and-outs on 37 drives (2nd). Titans force just 8.3 IP's/game, worst in NFL.
Lions (1-1) @ Buccaneers (3-0)- Tampa winning with defense, allowing two TD's on 31 drives; they held Bills to 147 total yards in only home game, and broke 16-year negative trend last week when they won at Packers for first time in 14 tries. Bucs riding Cadillac, first NFL runner to gain 100+ yards in each of first three games; they're averaging 166 rushing yards per game (498-148 edge on ground, total), are first in third down conversions (48.9%), 2nd in red zone defense (2.60) have forced 16 3-and-outs in 31 drives, and have three TD drives of 80+ yards, in only eight tries. Detroit, 3-6 in last nine post-bye games, lost three games vs Bucs, all by a FG- they've thrown 35 IP's in just two games, not a good sign.
Bills (1-2) @ Saints (1-2) (@ San Antonio)- First true "home" game for Saints, expect more focused effort, after ten turnovers, 38 IP's in last two losses, in which they fumbled away opening kickoff both times. Saints moving ball well (5th in 3rd down conversions), but 12 giveaways, minus-7 TO ratio and 24th red zone offense (3.70) product of mass distractions team has faced, which should be little less this week. Buffalo been struggling, scoring only two TD's on 26 drives, going 3-and-out 50% of time (32nd); they're also last in red zone defense (6.43), 25th in red zone offense (3.56) they've also allowed 467 rushing yards in last two games, so Deuce could get loose.
Rams (2-1) @ Giants (2-1)- St Louis survived sloppy (four TO's, 11 penalties) home win last week, now head out for third road game in four weeks, at Giant squad is 13-3 in last 16 pre-bye games, covering six of nine as pre-bye favorite. Big Blue was exposed on defense last week; they're 30th in third down defense (50%), 21st in black zone defense (80+ yard drives- 1.77); Bolts lit 'em up for 485 yards last week, 268 on ground, so holes were exposed for Martz to exploit. Manning is solid passer, though (20-23/217 last week) so shaky Ram DB's could also get lit up. St Louis just 34.2% on third down (24th) will miss injured WR Bruce (turf toe).
Seahawks (2-1) @ Redskins (2-0)- Seahawks rushed for 163 yards in each of last two home wins, now they head back out on road, where they lost opener 26-14 at Jax. Seattle gained 428-447 yards in last two games, so offense clicking now that WR's can catch the ball. Washington covered just three of last 12 post-bye games, scoring 10 ppg in last three; they scored two TD's in final 2:00 at Dallas, to avoid 0-2 start, but those are only two TD's they've scored in 21 drives this season; they've outrushed foes 268-131, but are minus-3 in TO's. Seattle is #1 in NFL in 3rd down defense (24.3%) and has forced twice as many 3-and-outs (14-7) as opponents.
Eagles (2-1) @ Chiefs (2-1)- Short week for Chiefs, who got drilled in Denver Monday; they're just 31.7% on 3rd down (27th), 21st in red zone (4.00), 30th in forcing 3-and-outs (5/29), but their defense has improved. Philly is banged up, with McNabb hurting and new kicker added; they've gained 1,041 yards in last two games, but lost only road game, at Atlanta. Eagles 2nd in 3rd down defense (34.4%), 3rd in forcing 3-and-outs (15/35) and hasn't allowed point on 12 drives that started 80+ yards from their goal line. Am concerned that Green is protecting leg with stint in it, and rushing throws to avoid late contact from pass rushers.
Jets (1-2) @ Ravens (0-2)- Desperation Bowl, as third-string QB Bollinger gets nod for Jets, with newly-signed Testaverde #2, and no #3, as I type this. Ravens off a bye after two dismal efforts, getting drilled 24-7/25-10, scoring two TD's on 26 drives, and now using backup QB Wright after Boller hurt his foot. Ravens won four of last five series games, winning 20-17 in OT at Swamp last year. Field position has been killer for Billick, as 17 of his 26 drives began 80+ yards from goal line, and team has yet to score before halftime- they've gone 3-and-out on half of those 26 drives. Jets normally rely on takeaways, but their TO ratio is even right now, not good enough for team with shaky offense (outrushed 403-244).
Vikings (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1)- Road team won last six series games, five of which were decided by six or less points, with Vikings winning last four visits to this site (last loss, '85). Minnesota is 11-3 in last 14 pre-bye games, with six of last seven totals in such games, 49+; they got first win last week, beating road-weary Saints. Tougher test here, vs Falcon squad that has run ball for 185 yards per game and is 8th in red zone offense (5.50). Vikings have yet to hold foe under 114 rushing yards (142.3/game); they lost only road game 37-8 at Cincy, but didn't turn ball over last week, after 12 giveaways in their two losses.
Cowboys (2-1) @ Raiders (0-3)- Second straight Bay Area game for Dallas, which got torched by Rattay last week (7.4 yards per attempt) but survived 34-31; how will they do against Moss and Porter, if Niners were 21-34/266 against them? Oakland is misleading 0-3, having already gone east twice, to play both Super Bowl squads, in addition to playing arch-rival Chiefs. Silver and Black not running it well (61.3 yds/game); they've failed to score on ten black zone drives and have just three takeaways, in addition to 54 IP's. Dallas OC Payton was Collins' position coach with Giants, before they both got shipped out of town.
49ers vs Cardinals (@ Mexico City)- This is Cardinal home game, as they sell off home date to help league. 49ers won eight of last nine series games, with three of last four going OT; Niners won both series games last year 31-28 in OT- they came back from 16 points down in final 5:00 in game at 'stick. Last three series totals were 64-59-59. QB Warner out for Redbirds, off to traditionally dismal 0-3 start. McCown (7-9 as starter) takes his place. 49er defense is leaky, allowing five 80+ yard TD drives in 11 tries, but Arizona is just above them in that area (five TD's, three FG's on 13 such drives). Cards have zero TD's in last 23 drives, with eight FG tries, so they can move ball, but are poor in red zone (3.14, 28th).
Packers @ Panthers- Green Bay won six of eight series games, winning last three, but at 0-3, Pack is in trouble; they have 30th-ranked red zone defense (5.86), 26th black zone defense (2.43), and have forced only seven 3-and-outs on 30 drives (27th). Pack has one takeaway in three games; their minus-8 turnover ratio is worst in NFL, and now they visit Panther squad reeling from upset loss at Miami. Carolina's defense seems to be problem; they're 26th on 3rd down (45%), 23rd in red zone (4.89), 22nd in black zone (three 80+ yard TD drives in 13 tries), and only nine 3-and-outs forced in 32 drives. Tough to give Favre more than TD, especially in national spotlight, but Carolina superior team here.
