Sunday Trends

[soul train]

NFL Trend Report
KANSAS CITY (5 - 3) at BUFFALO (3 - 5) - 11/13/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




WASHINGTON (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 3) - 11/13/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




NEW ENGLAND (4 - 4) at MIAMI (3 - 5) - 11/13/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-5 ATS (+17.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 6) at CHICAGO (5 - 3) - 11/13/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2) - 11/13/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in November games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




ARIZONA (2 - 6) at DETROIT (3 - 5) - 11/13/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




BALTIMORE (2 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 3) - 11/13/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 0-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




HOUSTON (1 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 0) - 11/13/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




NY JETS (2 - 6) at CAROLINA (6 - 2) - 11/13/2005, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




DENVER (6 - 2) at OAKLAND (3 - 5) - 11/13/2005, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




ST LOUIS (4 - 4) at SEATTLE (6 - 2) - 11/13/2005, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
SEATTLE is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 4-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 4-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[soul train]

GREEN BAY (1 - 7) at ATLANTA (6 - 2) - 11/13/2005, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




CLEVELAND (3 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 2) - 11/13/2005, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




DALLAS (5 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 4) - 11/14/2005, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________

 

[soul train]

NFL Week 10 NFL analysis
Chiefs (5-3) @ Bills (3-5)- First carpet game of year for Chiefs, who could use RB Holmes back, as blustery Buffalo weather can mess up a passing game. Home side won nine of last ten series games; this is Chiefs' first trip to Buffalo since '96. Bills are 3-1 at home, but are 0-5 if they allow more than 17 points. Chiefs have yet to lose allowing less than 28 points and figure to get bounce off last week's revenge win over on Raiders on last play of game. Last three Buffalo home games went over total, as did three of last four KC road games.

Redskins (5-3) @ Buccaneers (5-3)-Tampa scored 12-10-14 points in losses, 17+ in wins; Simms' passing isn't respected, teams are stacking run- as result, Bucs ran ball 38 times for 84 yards in last two games combined. Redskins traveling off pair of division games; they beat Philly last week, but were outgained 722-418 last two weeks. Skins lost last four visits to this site; last time they were here was 14-13 playoff loss in '99. Home side won six of last seven series games. Under is 6-2 in Buccaneer games this season. Skins are 1-3 on road; they were down 13-0 with 6:00 left in only win, at Dallas.

Patriots (4-4) @ Dolphins (3-5)-In last three games, New England has been outscored 45-10 in first half. Miami 1-4 in last five games; they scored 31+ points in their wins, less than 21 in losses. Here, they catch Patriot squad traveling on short work week, and reeling on defense (29th on third down, 31st in red zone, allowed 28+ points in five of last six games, opponents converted 19 of last 31 third down plays.) Pats won four of last five series games, but lost 29-28 in last year's visit here; three of last five series games were won by a point, or in OT.

49ers (2-6) @ Bears (5-3)-Chicago won last four games, allowing 9.8 ppg; only two of their five wins are by 13+ points, however. In their opponents' last 51 drives, Chicago has forced 3-and-out 26 times, so they're likely to dominate 49er offense that has averaged just 58.5 passing yards per game over last month. Niners are 0-3 on road, losing by 39-17-35 points, so they've been helpless away from home. Bears are 6-3 vs spread in game after their last nine wins. Under is 5-1 in last six Bear games, 3-1 in last four 49er contests.

Vikings (3-5) @ Giants (6-2)- Minnesota is 0-4 on road, losing all four games by 20+ points; they're 12-17 vs spread in game after their last 29 wins and are 0-5 if they score less than 23 points (they scored 13 or less in all five losses). Giants are 5-0 at home, with four wins by 17+ points (4-1 as home favorite); they scored 30 ppg in winning last three series games- this is Vikes' first trip to Swamp since 41-0 tank job in NFC title game five years ago. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Giant games, 3-1 in Minnesota road games. Giants facing second backup QB in row.

Cardinals (2-6) @ Lions (3-5)- Home side won last five series games, with Redbirds losing at this site last two years (24-42/12-26). Arizona 0-3 on road, losing by 23-25-21 points; they have yet to run ball for 100+ yards in game, have just three TD's on last 34 drives, and have just one takeaway in last two games. Detroit has solid defense, but they're 0-4 unless they win turnover battle and seem reluctant to play Harrington at QB. Lions have four TD's on last 48 drives, but are 15-9 vs spread in game after their last 24 losses. Five of last six Arizona games went over total.

Ravens (2-6) @ Jaguars (5-3)-Not like Elway or Marino back under center for Ravens, but return of Boller should help some; Billick is 1-4 as dog this season, Baltimore lost last three games and is 0-4 on road, losing by average of nine points, but they have won six in row vs Jaguar squad that had their number in early days of franchise. 12 of the 14 series games have been decided by seven or less points. Jags won three of last four games (by 3,6,7 points); only one of their five wins is by more than seven. Ravens allowed three points in each of their wins; their offense has just two TD's on last 40 drives. Under is 6-2 in last eight Baltimore games.

Texans (1-7) @ Colts (8-0)- Indy's big victory Monday creates a letdown scenario here, vs struggling foe that is 0-4 on the road, losing by 15-6-32-7 points, and is 1-5 vs spread if they allow more than 16 points. Colts are 6-0 in series, winning three games at this site by scores of 19-3/30-21/49-14. Indy offense improving after slow start; they've converted 38 of last 56 third down plays (67.9%) and have 15 TD's on last 26 drives. Colts covered last five games, running for average of 171 yards per game in last three. Last three Indy games all went over the total.

Jets (2-6) @ Panthers (6-2)-More mobile Bollinger to start at QB for Jets, reeling from retirement of beloved WR Chrebet, who had ninth concussion last week. Jets lost last three games, by 10,14,5 points; they allowed 7,12 points in wins, and are 0-6 when they allow more than 12 points. Carolina won five in row, scoring 38,34 in last two weeks; they averaged over 11 yards per pass attempt in last two games. Carolina is 7-3 vs spread in game after their last ten wins; they've scored 3+ offensive TD's in each of their last seven games. Over is 5-0-1 in last six Panther games.

Broncos (6-2) @ Raiders (3-5)-Home team lost last three games in bitter rivalry, with Broncos winning last two visits to this site by combined score of 53-11. Shanahan now 15-5 vs his former boss, 7-3 at this site. These two teams have turned ball over least of anyone in NFL. Denver covered six of last seven games, but lost two of three on road; they've turned ball over once in last six games. Favorite is 4-0 vs spread in Oakland home games, with Raiders 0-2 as home dog; they allowed 24,34 points in losses, 21 or less in their wins. Only one of last seven Denver foes has rushed ball for more than 97 yards.

Rams (4-4) @ Seahawks (6-2)-Seahawks won 37-31 at St Louis in first meeting, despite converting just 2 of 11 on third down- they started four drives Ram territory, and outrushed Rams 134-77. But that was before Joe Vitt took over as head coach; coming off bye, hard to tell what Rams will be like- they won last two games with Martin at QB, but Bulger, Holt and Little might all be back here, but expect Rams to still feature Jackson in running game. Seattle is 4-0 at home; they're 5-0 if they score more than 17 points and averaged 31.3 ppg during four-game win streak.

Packers (1-7) @ Falcons (6-2)-You'd think Atlanta might let down here vs struggling Packer squad (0-4 on road, with only one loss by more than seven points) but defensive coordinator Donatell was sacked by Pack after '03 playoff loss at Philly, when Eagles saved game by converting 4th-and-26 vs Donatell's defense, and this is his first shot at revenge vs those that unfairly fired him. Also remember that Favre was drafted by and traded by Atlanta, during Glanville regime. Falcons have 160+ rushing yards in five of last six games; they're 3-1 at home, 2-1 as home fave. This is first series meeting since Atlanta won night playoff game on frozen tundra three years ago.

Browns (3-5) @ Steelers (6-2)-Pitt won nine of last 10 series games, with three of last four wins by 11+ points. Browns are 1-5 at this site, with three of five losses by 11+ pts. Batch starts again at QB, though; Steelers are 1 for 20 on third down in games Big Ben has missed (35.8% in games he played), with two TD's on 22 drives, and total yardage of 218,213. Three of last four Brown losses are by seven or less points; they've run ball for 325 yards in last two games, but still have just three offensive TD's on last 44 drives. Last six Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Cowboys (5-3) @ Eagles (4-4)-Dallas crushed Birds in first meeting, 33-10, outrushing Philly, 167-19, with total yardage 456-129. Pokes led 27-3 at half, and forced seven 3-and-outs on 10 Eagle drives. Desperation time for proud Philly team, though, as they're rid of Owens, and facing team they've beaten nine of last 11 times, with seven of nine wins by 22+ points. Cowboys lost last six visits to this city, where Eagles are 3-0 this year (wins by 39,3,3). Philly has rushed for 83 or less yards in each of last six games; they're 1-4 as favorite this year, and have scored seven or less first half points in each of last four games.

 

[soul train]

Wednesday's List of 13: NFL by the numbers........
13) Colts, at 8-0, seem to be legit threat to run table in regular season, with road tests at Cincinnati, Seattle their hardest games left. Indy has converted 38 of last 56 (67.9%) third down plays, so their offense is cranking up. Best way to attack their defense is with the long pass, as Rams did before Bulger was injured.

12) Want an underrated stat? Incomplete pass margin. The combined record of the top six teams in IP margin is 32-17, combined record of six lowest teams is 16-32. Every IP is play that gains no yards. if you have a lot less than the other side, only logical that you would benefit from it.

11) In their last four games, 49ers have totaled 234 passing yards, or 58.5 yards per game. Not very good. Then again, they've started four different QB's this season.

10) 12 of the 14 Baltimore-Jacksonville games have been decided by seven or less points.

9) Not only are Vikings 0-4 on road, all four losses are by 20+ points.

8) Tampa opponents respected Brian Griese's passing, which helped the running game. With Greise out, that respect is gone, and Bucs ran ball 38 times for 87 yards in two games since Greise got hurt.

7) In their last two games, Carolina averaged 11.0/11.3 yards per pass attempt. Not yards per completion, yards per pass attempt.

6) Good news for Detroit is that their defense has stopped opponents on 28 of last 34 third down plays, and Lions are
+ 7 in turnovers last six games, but bad news is, despite those important numbers, Detroit is still 3-5 and sinking fast, with very little competent play at QB position. Lions have four TD's on their last 48 drives.

5) In last 2:00 of each half in their eight games, Seattle has outscored opponents, 54-3.

4) Patriots' defense is ranked 29th in third down defense, 31st in red zone defense and has allowed 28+ points in four of last five games. Their lack of running game exposes the defense even more.

3) Surprising that teams QB'd by Plummer (6) and Collins (7) have fewest giveaways of any NFL teams. Less surprising that Arron Brooks' Saints lead NFL with 27 turnovers.

2) Eagles are 15-6 vs spread in games that immediately came after their last 21 losses.

1) In six games Ben Roethlisberger started, Steelers are 24 for 67 (35.8%) on third down, not a great number, but eons better than what they are (1 for 20) in two games he missed.

 

[Skanoochies]

Hope everybody appreciates all the hard work you put into this stuff. Thanks for sharing it. Good luck this weekend. :clap: