Sunday

[Smitty]

absolutely terrible day yesterday.

if the "experts" at cbssports.com have a good day today, then i'm going down in flames again. so far this season, when all 8 agree on a game, they are 1-7. when 7 of 8 are on the same side, they are 6-10. and when 6 out of 8 are on the same side, they are 16-14 (after starting out 10-3). this weekend, they all agree on kc, no, gb, and seattle. 6 of 'em are on pitt and sf.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks

so without further ado, here are my plays....

Jacksonville (+15) 1 unit

Cleveland (+7) 2 units

buffalo (+10.5) 2 units

Oakland (+2.5) 1 unit

Minnesota (+7.5) 2 units.

no surprise that they are all on favs. and, after the day I had yesterday, it wouldn't be a surprise if they hit every one of their consensus plays. but the lines on almost all their favs are dropping, which makes me really like these plays.

 

[IX_Bender]

Ive seen this type of week setup before and with certainty this will happen.....


No way you go 0-5. Similarly , you will not go 5-0. Not that it helps, but Id flatten out my units here and play them all the same amounts, if youre committed to them. Also , one of your losses will not be close, at all. Like KC wins by 21+ or some shit.

Folks are lining up to bet on Cleveland with McGahee and Campbell? The line IS GOING DOWN vs the last remaining undefeated team. That's just fucking scary. Anyone watching the Browns Pack game last week has NO BIZNSS backing the Browns. So, sharp money indeed there. I just cant stomach it, might actually vomit. Ugh.

GL today Smitty.

 

[michaeljbird]

good stuff

 

[ejthree]

Smitty I predict you will have a great day...gl

 

[Smitty]

thanks, guys. we'll see how this plays out.

bender, I fully agree. i'll be happy just to turn a profit, especially after the day I had yesterday. one of the all-time worst days I've had on football. my posted plays only begin to tell the story of how my day went.

anyway, I decided to start tracking how these "experts" were doing the more they agreed with each other. the research I've seen regarding "expert" opinions is focused on the world of finance, but I was fairly certain it would apply here. generally speaking, the more confident people are in their predictions, the more likely they are to be wrong.

as noted above, and as I expected, when all 8 of these guys agree on a game, they are terrible. I just wish I hadn't waited nearly half the season to start playing against their consensus plays. but I wanted to get confirmation of my theory first.

so here we are today, with a card I really didn't like. and I thought it was interesting that, after they all agreed on only 8 games the entire season, all of them agreed on 4 games this weekend.

I still fully expect a) kc will cover with a late score and b) buffalo will not walk through a wide open back door.