great write-ups for these games...
http://grantland.com/features/afc-championship-preview-a-whole-new-ballgame/
http://grantland.com/features/nfc-championship-preview-the-game-we-all-wanted/
Denver (-4.5) 3 units. way too much love for a mediocre pats team. I think barnwell has it right - both teams should have a lot of success running the ball today. neither defense is particularly good. the difference will be the passing game. manning is going to have success. (huge boost from the beautiful forecast) brady? I was on the pats last week and spent a chunk of the game pleading with brady to stop sucking. there's a big edge to denver.
another great point from barnwell in this game - the pats d line is going to be severely tested. hard to believe they won't wear down in the mile high air.
in the other game, I really want to play san fran. they are the better team, and it's a great matchup for them. seattle is vulnerable to a power running game and their d backs can be beaten over the top. sets up perfectly for gore (and hunter) and kaepernick going deep off play action. and losing harvin again really hurts seattle's offense. but I have to believe the niners will wear down today. it's their 4th straight road game. they've gone from arizona to green bay to carolina to seattle. they played in frigid temps in gb, and then a very physical game at carolina. and now they are facing probably an even more physical game today. I don't know if they can hold up for another 60 minutes.
I want to play sf in the first half, but it seems like kaepernick keeps getting off to slow starts. remember the TAINT he threw on the 4th play of the playoff game against gb last year? then they fell behind 17-0 at Atlanta. and they were down 28-6 in the super bowl. this year, he got off to a better start against carolina, but then he threw what should have been a TAINT that was dropped on the opening drive of the second quarter. it seems when he makes mistakes, they are early in the game.
so here's the really strange thing... how is this total holding at 40? wouldn't they still get plenty of under action if it was, say, 37 or 38? as crazy as this is, it makes me think the best play on this game is...
over (40) 1 unit.
http://grantland.com/features/afc-championship-preview-a-whole-new-ballgame/
http://grantland.com/features/nfc-championship-preview-the-game-we-all-wanted/
Denver (-4.5) 3 units. way too much love for a mediocre pats team. I think barnwell has it right - both teams should have a lot of success running the ball today. neither defense is particularly good. the difference will be the passing game. manning is going to have success. (huge boost from the beautiful forecast) brady? I was on the pats last week and spent a chunk of the game pleading with brady to stop sucking. there's a big edge to denver.
another great point from barnwell in this game - the pats d line is going to be severely tested. hard to believe they won't wear down in the mile high air.
in the other game, I really want to play san fran. they are the better team, and it's a great matchup for them. seattle is vulnerable to a power running game and their d backs can be beaten over the top. sets up perfectly for gore (and hunter) and kaepernick going deep off play action. and losing harvin again really hurts seattle's offense. but I have to believe the niners will wear down today. it's their 4th straight road game. they've gone from arizona to green bay to carolina to seattle. they played in frigid temps in gb, and then a very physical game at carolina. and now they are facing probably an even more physical game today. I don't know if they can hold up for another 60 minutes.
I want to play sf in the first half, but it seems like kaepernick keeps getting off to slow starts. remember the TAINT he threw on the 4th play of the playoff game against gb last year? then they fell behind 17-0 at Atlanta. and they were down 28-6 in the super bowl. this year, he got off to a better start against carolina, but then he threw what should have been a TAINT that was dropped on the opening drive of the second quarter. it seems when he makes mistakes, they are early in the game.
so here's the really strange thing... how is this total holding at 40? wouldn't they still get plenty of under action if it was, say, 37 or 38? as crazy as this is, it makes me think the best play on this game is...
over (40) 1 unit.
