holy shit, I'm playing almost every game today.
Houston (+4) 2 units
Houston (ML) 1 unit to win 1.7. ok, we've got a team that finds ways to lose against a team that's been finding ways to win. but this is a perfect letdown spot for the browns, after a convincing win over Cincinnati, and going against a guy making his first start. I have no high hopes for mallet. from what I've seen, he's a douche with a good arm. and now he won't have arien foster to hand off to. clearly the Texans shouldn't even bother to show up today. but as we all know, parity reigns supreme in the nfl. teams that look terrible one week often look great the following week, and vice versa. the browns are only 1-2 this year as a fav (1-3, depending on what line you had in the Tennessee game), dropping their last 2 ATS. hell, they only beat tampa at home by 5. teams tend to really step up in the first game with a backup qb. I think this one is going to be close at the end, and the Texans will have a shot to win this game.
and... here's my crazy total of the week... Houston/Cleveland over (41) 3 units. I can offer almost no logical explanation for this play, other than this game has the highest percentage of plays on the under. well, that and the browns really letting down this week. let's call the final score 31-28.
Minnesota (ML) 3 units to win 3.3. where to even start with this game.... maybe with a rookie qb who's team believes in him vs. an extremely overpaid veteran who has to be a locker room cancer? speaking of cutler... the Vikings have 20 sacks in their last 4 games. I'm sure jay will display his usual fantastic leadership after going down for the 3rd or 4th time today.
here's Chicago's 3 home games this season....
7-point fav over buffalo, they lost by 3
1-point dog to gb, they lost by 21
3-point fav over Miami, they lost by 13
the Vikings may not have the talent the bears have, but they're still playing hard. I don't know what you'd call what the bears have been doing, but it ain't playing hard.
green bay (-5.5) 3 units. ok, last week the eagles played another team that has given up on the season. dirty sanchez was handed a very short field a few times early in the game. he still didn't do jack shit, but they put up a couple scores and suddenly there was absolutely zero pressure on him. I really wish this game was in philly, because I want to see him with some pressure on him in front of those fans. he thought jets fans were bad? anyway, he's going to need to have a good game today, which means he's due for 2 TAINTs and a fumble or two.
kc (-1) 2 units. even when seattle is good, they struggle on the road. today they're going to have to contend with kc fans who are determined to show they are the best 12th man in the league.
Cincinnati/NO over (51) 2 units. Dalton was terrible last week, so he'll be decent this week. and you know the saints are going to put up some points.
st. Louis (+10) 2 units. a couple things going on here. first of all, Denver is playing its 3rd straight road game. quite a schedule they've had... at new england, at Oakland, now at st. louis. and, oddly enough, they're playing a team that just played 3 straight road games (remember that late meltdown from the rams last week? tired legs will do that to you.). and, not that this makes much sense, but the rams have been alternating shocking wins with big losses. first the win over seattle. then the beatdown at kc. then the win at san fran. followed by the collapse at Arizona. so clearly they are due for a big win today. shaun hill is back at qb, and at the very least, that won't hurt. you know, wtf....
st. louis (ML) 1 unit to win 3.8.
ny giants (ML) 2 units to win 3.5. dammit, why do I have to play this fucking team? they're so bad. but it's a perfect letdown spot for the niners, after their "season-saving" win last week in OT. now they have to travel to the east coast for a 1:00 game. I'm only playing the ML so I can at least save the juice when the niners blow 'em out.
Oakland (+10) 1 unit
Oakland (ML) 1 unit to win 4.4. why the fuck not? sd has lost 3 straight. and manti te'o is back for the chargers. that alone should give the raiders a chance.
Arizona (-1) 3 units. since when is losing carson palmer a bad thing? the cardinals have been winning in spite of palmer, not because of him. oh, and the only game they lost with Stanton was at Denver. hardly a bad loss. Detroit's road wins have come at Atlanta, Minnesota, ny jets, and Carolina. Arizona should prove to be just a little tougher.
Detroit/Arizona under (41) 2 units. maybe a little too easy, but this is two of the best defenses in the nfl. should end up somewhere around 20-13. all 4 of Detroit's road games have gone under.
I'm assuming i'll be sitting on an undefeated day by the time we get to the late game, so i'll probably just push all-in on the pats. you know what, fuck it. I'd better grab the 3 while I can.
new England (+3) 3 units
new England (ML) 2 units to win 2.6. that's right, I'm still not a believer in the colts. their wins are over teams with a combined record of 21-34-1. their losses are against teams with a combined record of 20-6. so the story hasn't changed with this team. they beat up weaker teams but can't beat good teams. and ever since the loss at kc, the pats have gone into what bill simmons calls "F-U mode". I just hope the bye week didn't disrupt their momentum.
and, yes, I am fully aware that it's insane to play that many games. I should throw a little parlay on Atlanta and tampa, just so I have a rooting interest in those games, too.
Houston (+4) 2 units
Houston (ML) 1 unit to win 1.7. ok, we've got a team that finds ways to lose against a team that's been finding ways to win. but this is a perfect letdown spot for the browns, after a convincing win over Cincinnati, and going against a guy making his first start. I have no high hopes for mallet. from what I've seen, he's a douche with a good arm. and now he won't have arien foster to hand off to. clearly the Texans shouldn't even bother to show up today. but as we all know, parity reigns supreme in the nfl. teams that look terrible one week often look great the following week, and vice versa. the browns are only 1-2 this year as a fav (1-3, depending on what line you had in the Tennessee game), dropping their last 2 ATS. hell, they only beat tampa at home by 5. teams tend to really step up in the first game with a backup qb. I think this one is going to be close at the end, and the Texans will have a shot to win this game.
and... here's my crazy total of the week... Houston/Cleveland over (41) 3 units. I can offer almost no logical explanation for this play, other than this game has the highest percentage of plays on the under. well, that and the browns really letting down this week. let's call the final score 31-28.
Minnesota (ML) 3 units to win 3.3. where to even start with this game.... maybe with a rookie qb who's team believes in him vs. an extremely overpaid veteran who has to be a locker room cancer? speaking of cutler... the Vikings have 20 sacks in their last 4 games. I'm sure jay will display his usual fantastic leadership after going down for the 3rd or 4th time today.
here's Chicago's 3 home games this season....
7-point fav over buffalo, they lost by 3
1-point dog to gb, they lost by 21
3-point fav over Miami, they lost by 13
the Vikings may not have the talent the bears have, but they're still playing hard. I don't know what you'd call what the bears have been doing, but it ain't playing hard.
green bay (-5.5) 3 units. ok, last week the eagles played another team that has given up on the season. dirty sanchez was handed a very short field a few times early in the game. he still didn't do jack shit, but they put up a couple scores and suddenly there was absolutely zero pressure on him. I really wish this game was in philly, because I want to see him with some pressure on him in front of those fans. he thought jets fans were bad? anyway, he's going to need to have a good game today, which means he's due for 2 TAINTs and a fumble or two.
kc (-1) 2 units. even when seattle is good, they struggle on the road. today they're going to have to contend with kc fans who are determined to show they are the best 12th man in the league.
Cincinnati/NO over (51) 2 units. Dalton was terrible last week, so he'll be decent this week. and you know the saints are going to put up some points.
st. Louis (+10) 2 units. a couple things going on here. first of all, Denver is playing its 3rd straight road game. quite a schedule they've had... at new england, at Oakland, now at st. louis. and, oddly enough, they're playing a team that just played 3 straight road games (remember that late meltdown from the rams last week? tired legs will do that to you.). and, not that this makes much sense, but the rams have been alternating shocking wins with big losses. first the win over seattle. then the beatdown at kc. then the win at san fran. followed by the collapse at Arizona. so clearly they are due for a big win today. shaun hill is back at qb, and at the very least, that won't hurt. you know, wtf....
st. louis (ML) 1 unit to win 3.8.
ny giants (ML) 2 units to win 3.5. dammit, why do I have to play this fucking team? they're so bad. but it's a perfect letdown spot for the niners, after their "season-saving" win last week in OT. now they have to travel to the east coast for a 1:00 game. I'm only playing the ML so I can at least save the juice when the niners blow 'em out.
Oakland (+10) 1 unit
Oakland (ML) 1 unit to win 4.4. why the fuck not? sd has lost 3 straight. and manti te'o is back for the chargers. that alone should give the raiders a chance.
Arizona (-1) 3 units. since when is losing carson palmer a bad thing? the cardinals have been winning in spite of palmer, not because of him. oh, and the only game they lost with Stanton was at Denver. hardly a bad loss. Detroit's road wins have come at Atlanta, Minnesota, ny jets, and Carolina. Arizona should prove to be just a little tougher.
Detroit/Arizona under (41) 2 units. maybe a little too easy, but this is two of the best defenses in the nfl. should end up somewhere around 20-13. all 4 of Detroit's road games have gone under.
I'm assuming i'll be sitting on an undefeated day by the time we get to the late game, so i'll probably just push all-in on the pats. you know what, fuck it. I'd better grab the 3 while I can.
new England (+3) 3 units
new England (ML) 2 units to win 2.6. that's right, I'm still not a believer in the colts. their wins are over teams with a combined record of 21-34-1. their losses are against teams with a combined record of 20-6. so the story hasn't changed with this team. they beat up weaker teams but can't beat good teams. and ever since the loss at kc, the pats have gone into what bill simmons calls "F-U mode". I just hope the bye week didn't disrupt their momentum.
and, yes, I am fully aware that it's insane to play that many games. I should throw a little parlay on Atlanta and tampa, just so I have a rooting interest in those games, too.
