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Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
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Just a note on the det/nyg game... are these the two worst 9-4 teams in nfl history?

chicago (+4) 3 units
chicago (ML) 1 unit to win 1.9. no surprise, the bears are 3-0 ATS since cutler was lost for the year. i gotta believe they're going to play their asses off today, and that will be enough to stay close to a packers team that is suddenly vastly overrated once again.

cleveland (ML) 1 unit to win 3.9. yeah, this is crazy. but the bills may be quitting on the season, knowing their streak of missing the playoffs is likely to continue and rex is going to get fired. i'm not saying it's likely, but at this price, it's worth a shot.

tennessee (+6) 2 units
tennessee (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2. i'll jump on board with a lot of people here. i was a little surprised to see kc's run defense is 25th in the league, allowing 4.3 yards/carry. tennessee can exploit that.

ne/denver under (43) 4 units. denver's defense has been very good against brady, and it's hard to imagine siemian lighting up the ne d. very low scoring game today.

san diego 1st half (+.5) 2 units. the fact that the line for the game still hasn't gone up to 3 is very telling. where is this sd money coming from? so i really think sd is the "right" side. but the way they've played in the 4th quarter this year, and the way oakland has played in the 4th quarter this year makes me think the chargers could be the "right" side and still blow this game. so i'm making a first half play.

pitt/cin under (45) 2 units. looking for an old school slugfest in this game.
 

ejthree

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Sep 7, 2006
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Just a note on the det/nyg game... are these the two worst 9-4 teams in nfl history?

chicago (+4) 3 units
chicago (ML) 1 unit to win 1.9. no surprise, the bears are 3-0 ATS since cutler was lost for the year. i gotta believe they're going to play their asses off today, and that will be enough to stay close to a packers team that is suddenly vastly overrated once again.

cleveland (ML) 1 unit to win 3.9. yeah, this is crazy. but the bills may be quitting on the season, knowing their streak of missing the playoffs is likely to continue and rex is going to get fired. i'm not saying it's likely, but at this price, it's worth a shot.

tennessee (+6) 2 units
tennessee (ML) 1 unit to win 2.2. i'll jump on board with a lot of people here. i was a little surprised to see kc's run defense is 25th in the league, allowing 4.3 yards/carry. tennessee can exploit that.

ne/denver under (43) 4 units. denver's defense has been very good against brady, and it's hard to imagine siemian lighting up the ne d. very low scoring game today.

san diego 1st half (+.5) 2 units. the fact that the line for the game still hasn't gone up to 3 is very telling. where is this sd money coming from? so i really think sd is the "right" side. but the way they've played in the 4th quarter this year, and the way oakland has played in the 4th quarter this year makes me think the chargers could be the "right" side and still blow this game. so i'm making a first half play.

pitt/cin under (45) 2 units. looking for an old school slugfest in this game.

Solid card Smitty .....GLGL:0074
 

Smitty

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thanks, ej. i've been terrible in the nfl this year, so we'll see.

i think i should hammer that ne/den under and bet nothing else. but that would require a level of discipline that still escapes me.
 

ejthree

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Sep 7, 2006
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Well son looks like you had yourself a pretty nice day....:0074
 

Smitty

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Jan 5, 2005
7,411
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Upstate NY
Well son looks like you had yourself a pretty nice day....:0074

thanks, ej! that was long overdue. nice to take a little chunk out of my nfl deficit this year.

oddly, the one i'm happiest with... sd in the first half. first time i was ever getting 1/2 point and the game was tied. :) i feel like making that a rare first half play was the best decision i made all day.

even though i did ok with sides today, it kinda reinforces my thought that i should only be playing totals in the nfl this year. that ne/den was way too easy.
 
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