well, gold bond is not helping to soothe my pain after last night's anal raping. sitting on one of those inflatable donuts now. amazingly, that is not the first time i've lost a bet because the other team's kicker got hurt. but, because i never learn, i'm betting on another bad qb in a playoff game today.
baltimore (-3) 6 units. the only thing that may keep this game close is lamar jackson turning the ball over. and that's a very real possibility. but i'll take the much better defense at home against a qb that has thrown 2 INTs in each of his last 3 starts, including against the ravens. in fact, baltimore owned rivers a few weeks ago. not only did he not throw a TD, he averaged 4.9 yards/attempt, by far his lowest number of the year. this was not a fluke, as baltimore allows 6.3 yards/att, which is tied for the best # in the league.
on the other side of the ball, baltimore has really gotten the running game going. they were good against sd a few weeks ago, running for 159 yards on 35 carries (4.5 yards/carry). oh, and this is big... sd is without a starting linebacker (brown) and starting nose tackle (mebane) today. those two combined for 14 tackles in the first meeting. the chargers did a good job of slowing down jackson on the ground, only giving up 39 yards on 13 carries, with a long of 27. it will be interesting to see if they can duplicate that effort, because they're going to have to.
under (43) 3 units. i think it will take 3 non-offensive scores to put this one over the total. baltimore is going to run, run, run, and shut down rivers.
if jackson throws the ball more than 15 times, i'm fucked.
chicago (-6.5) 3 units
under (41.5) 3 units. against this defense, it's time for nick foles to remind everyone of why he's the backup. it's tough laying points with yet another qb making his first playoff start. and maybe philly's defense will step up and keep this close for a while. but that d hasn't been particularly good all year, and eventually trubisky will put some points on the board. and i wouldn't be surprised if chicago's defense scores once or twice.
baltimore (-3) 6 units. the only thing that may keep this game close is lamar jackson turning the ball over. and that's a very real possibility. but i'll take the much better defense at home against a qb that has thrown 2 INTs in each of his last 3 starts, including against the ravens. in fact, baltimore owned rivers a few weeks ago. not only did he not throw a TD, he averaged 4.9 yards/attempt, by far his lowest number of the year. this was not a fluke, as baltimore allows 6.3 yards/att, which is tied for the best # in the league.
on the other side of the ball, baltimore has really gotten the running game going. they were good against sd a few weeks ago, running for 159 yards on 35 carries (4.5 yards/carry). oh, and this is big... sd is without a starting linebacker (brown) and starting nose tackle (mebane) today. those two combined for 14 tackles in the first meeting. the chargers did a good job of slowing down jackson on the ground, only giving up 39 yards on 13 carries, with a long of 27. it will be interesting to see if they can duplicate that effort, because they're going to have to.
under (43) 3 units. i think it will take 3 non-offensive scores to put this one over the total. baltimore is going to run, run, run, and shut down rivers.
if jackson throws the ball more than 15 times, i'm fucked.
chicago (-6.5) 3 units
under (41.5) 3 units. against this defense, it's time for nick foles to remind everyone of why he's the backup. it's tough laying points with yet another qb making his first playoff start. and maybe philly's defense will step up and keep this close for a while. but that d hasn't been particularly good all year, and eventually trubisky will put some points on the board. and i wouldn't be surprised if chicago's defense scores once or twice.
