SUPER 12:
Just one more Super 12 pick for the weekend - am avoiding the unpredictable Hurricanes at
+10.5 v the Crusaders and the 0-4 ATS Blues, who are +4.5 on the road v the Waratahs who have returned from a fruitless trip to Sth Africa.
Game 5) Cats v Sharks, 22:00 CST
Cats -5.5
A 3rd v 1st battle in the republic at the home of the Cats. Laurie Mains' team is 4-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS after only narrowing pipping the disappointing Hurricanes 18-15 after trailing for most of the encounter. The Sharks meanwhile are the only team with the perfect SU record (5-0) and are 4-1 ATS. This will be the Sharks' first road trip and they will play their remaining six matches away from home. They are a revitalised side under new coach Rudolf Straeuli but it is basically the same squad of players that finished bottom of the table last season. The Cats, semifinalists last season, were 5-0 at home last year and beat the Sharks 28-27 on the road in Durban. Only in their 51-26 trouncing of the Highlanders in Rd 2 have the Cats really hit peak form - they are likely to target this match as the opportunity to make a statement against their neighbouring rivals.
PLAY CATS -5.5
NRL:
Game 2) Newcastle Knights v NZ Warriors, Marathon Stadium, 17:05 CST
Knights -12.5
I decided very early this season - Rd One - that it would take a long while before I placed faith in the Warriors to win us a wager. Well; time has come. I've seen enough of the Auckland-based side to believe they can provide the punter with an honest 80-minute performance without the horrifying inconsistencies which have plagued them during their short history. The Warriors are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS and get a 12.5 point start. As a road dog, they are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, covering with a SU win over the Eagles and a narrow SU loss v the Eels. The Knights beat Melbourne 36-28 on the road last weekend but had to hang on late after leading 30-0 at halftime. The home side are also 4-2 ATS; have played twice at home this season to be 1-1 SU and ATS as a home chalk. Statistically wise, there is little to separate the 2 sides, although the Knights have an edge in the possession stakes (averaging 54% and coming out on top in the possession stakes in 5 of 6 matches). Warriors completion rate is a solid 67%, Knights' 66%; they have 6 line breaks apiece per match, Warriors' 26 missed tackles per game, Knights 28; and 12 errors each per match. While Newcastle has tons of class, the recent form of the Warriors indicates they should hang tough here - in their last three matches, they have played the Dragons (h), Eels (r) and Broncos (h) and covered the spread in all three encounters. I'll take the points on offer - the most this weekend despite the Roosters hosting the Panthers.
PLAY WARRIORS +12.5 (beware the Warriors kiss of death
)
GLTA; more tomorrow in the NRL
Just one more Super 12 pick for the weekend - am avoiding the unpredictable Hurricanes at
+10.5 v the Crusaders and the 0-4 ATS Blues, who are +4.5 on the road v the Waratahs who have returned from a fruitless trip to Sth Africa.
Game 5) Cats v Sharks, 22:00 CST
Cats -5.5
A 3rd v 1st battle in the republic at the home of the Cats. Laurie Mains' team is 4-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS after only narrowing pipping the disappointing Hurricanes 18-15 after trailing for most of the encounter. The Sharks meanwhile are the only team with the perfect SU record (5-0) and are 4-1 ATS. This will be the Sharks' first road trip and they will play their remaining six matches away from home. They are a revitalised side under new coach Rudolf Straeuli but it is basically the same squad of players that finished bottom of the table last season. The Cats, semifinalists last season, were 5-0 at home last year and beat the Sharks 28-27 on the road in Durban. Only in their 51-26 trouncing of the Highlanders in Rd 2 have the Cats really hit peak form - they are likely to target this match as the opportunity to make a statement against their neighbouring rivals.
PLAY CATS -5.5
NRL:
Game 2) Newcastle Knights v NZ Warriors, Marathon Stadium, 17:05 CST
Knights -12.5
I decided very early this season - Rd One - that it would take a long while before I placed faith in the Warriors to win us a wager. Well; time has come. I've seen enough of the Auckland-based side to believe they can provide the punter with an honest 80-minute performance without the horrifying inconsistencies which have plagued them during their short history. The Warriors are 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS and get a 12.5 point start. As a road dog, they are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, covering with a SU win over the Eagles and a narrow SU loss v the Eels. The Knights beat Melbourne 36-28 on the road last weekend but had to hang on late after leading 30-0 at halftime. The home side are also 4-2 ATS; have played twice at home this season to be 1-1 SU and ATS as a home chalk. Statistically wise, there is little to separate the 2 sides, although the Knights have an edge in the possession stakes (averaging 54% and coming out on top in the possession stakes in 5 of 6 matches). Warriors completion rate is a solid 67%, Knights' 66%; they have 6 line breaks apiece per match, Warriors' 26 missed tackles per game, Knights 28; and 12 errors each per match. While Newcastle has tons of class, the recent form of the Warriors indicates they should hang tough here - in their last three matches, they have played the Dragons (h), Eels (r) and Broncos (h) and covered the spread in all three encounters. I'll take the points on offer - the most this weekend despite the Roosters hosting the Panthers.
PLAY WARRIORS +12.5 (beware the Warriors kiss of death
GLTA; more tomorrow in the NRL
