So how do Super Bowl losers perform against-the-spread in their first game the next season? The results were surprising.
Using Bet Labs data, the runner-up in the championship game has gone a humbling 2-11 against-the-spread (and 5-8 straight-up) in Week 1 since the 2003 season. The ATS win rate is surprising but even more so when you compare it to historical win probabilities.
On average, the Super Bowl loser has been favored by 3.2 points in its first game the following season (in our date the runner-up was favored in 10 out of 13 games). Historically, teams favored by 3 to 3.5 points have an against-the-spread record of 393-415-50 (48.6 percent) over the last 13 seasons and win outright about 60 percent of the time (508-350 straight-up).
We would expect the Super Bowl losers to cover the spread about 50 percent of the time based on the average line, not the 15.4 percent we have observed.
Week 1 results for the Super Bowl winners. Since 2003, the defending champions have gone 8-4-1 against-the-spread (and 11-2 straight-up) in the first game of the season.
Using Bet Labs data, the runner-up in the championship game has gone a humbling 2-11 against-the-spread (and 5-8 straight-up) in Week 1 since the 2003 season. The ATS win rate is surprising but even more so when you compare it to historical win probabilities.
On average, the Super Bowl loser has been favored by 3.2 points in its first game the following season (in our date the runner-up was favored in 10 out of 13 games). Historically, teams favored by 3 to 3.5 points have an against-the-spread record of 393-415-50 (48.6 percent) over the last 13 seasons and win outright about 60 percent of the time (508-350 straight-up).
We would expect the Super Bowl losers to cover the spread about 50 percent of the time based on the average line, not the 15.4 percent we have observed.
Week 1 results for the Super Bowl winners. Since 2003, the defending champions have gone 8-4-1 against-the-spread (and 11-2 straight-up) in the first game of the season.
