Pittsburgh -6.5
Cobbled this together from somewhat randon posts I've been thinking about the big game...
think Pittsburgh will put up a decent score.
I was a bit surprised when I looked, but they have played 11 games v. top 12 D's on the season! Still av'd over 22 ppg, and against 'lesser' teams, scored;
38 v. Houston (22nd) [over 400 yards]
10 @ Cleveland (26th), but in howling wind and driving rain.
31 v. Cleveland 2nd time around [over 350 not particularly trying]
26 @ Jax (17th) [over 400 yards & with no Parker]
11 v. SD (25th), but again in cold, snowy, windy conditions...still racked up over 400.
Arizona are 19th overall for yards allowed, 28th for points allowed and give up 29 ppg on the road!
I have to think the Steelers will hit a minimum of 27.
on the other hand, not counting last week's game vs. phil, when the az offense played against top 10 defenses they averaged 19.5 points per game [AR]
Very good point...20 @ Phil, 17 @ Wash, 14 v. Minni...although, to be fair, I don't think we can count the 7 @ NE in the driving snow when they had nothing to play for and no desire to even be there! (29 at home v. NYG)
They lost all 5 ats.
on the other side of the ball, the pitt. offense was ordinary this year & on the road they averaged about 20 ppg & about 312 total yards. [AR]
True, but they played 5 of 7 road games against the best 8 teams in scoring allowed!
Ten 2, Balt 3, NE 8, Phil 4, Wash 6...Zona 28th!
Steelers score, Zona probably don't.
If you are looking at regular season stats you could have found 100 differents reasons to back Carolina against Arizona and maybe more for Philly to get the job done. Nobody expected Arizona to destroy Philadelphia's secondary like they did.. and they have a better pass defense than the Steelers! [Another poster on another site.]
Carolina were an extremely surprising 18th in total D. Arizona were going to score in that game. The surprise for me was that the Panthers didn't, although 6 TO's can account a fair bit for that.
1) Philli played (imo) extremely soft D in the first half last week. Gave Warner all the time in the world to pass. When they picked it up in the second Arizona had just 1 score.
Remember that they converted a 4th down to score early too.
2) It was Philli's 3rd straight road game, and 4th in 5 weeks. Teams have proved it is possible, but has to be tough, esp. for a team who scrapped all the way through wk. 17 to get into the Play-offs.
3) I think their D was over-rated anyway...held Minni and a Plax-less NYG in the play-offs (big deal).
Played just 7 team in the top 18 for total O on the season!! Gave up 24 ppg in those games, nearly 27 if we take out the last game v. Dallas when they had given up.
Over 30 in 3 of them.
Dallas was the only team in the top 12 for pass D that Philli played for the year.
4) Pittsburgh's pass D is better. Both in y/game and y/pass. More sacks. And FAR better in stopping big plays.
Philli gave up 47 over 20 yards and 8 over 40...Pits just 23 and 2.
For me, the Steelers looked ordinary offensively against the Ravens (OK I know it was the Ravens) and looked awful when Ward went off. Willie Parker isnt the greatest running back and had a bad game last week, the play calling was predictable and the if Hines Ward is not healthy then I don't see them scoring many points at all. We saw when Sweede came on and dropped a clanger that should have been a TD, that Pittsburgh dont have great options at WR and I think this is going to really hurt them. [Same guy, other site.]
If Sweed catches that ball for an easy TD then it's a different story all together. I'd argue that getting into position is the hard part. Catching is relatively easy.
I hear what you're saying, and Ward would be a substancial loss, but pretty big difference between the Raven D and this one.
Pitts conceded 24 to San Diego [Him again]
They did, but they kinda didn't at the same time. A long TD late when the game was in the bag. In fact, both last quarter scores came when they were 18 points down. They had 10 until that point...
...and, they (SD) actually had the BEST y/pass av. in the NFL (8.4). Zona 7th @ 7.7.
Houston 2nd (8.1) who Pits dominated.
yep...It's classic offense v. defense...both game-wise, and in most punter's minds.
ONLY 4 times scoring 20 or less is certainly impressive...funny how they were against 4 of the 5 top 10 D's they'd faced on the season. Steelers are the best of the lot.
Anyway...will start going in circles soon.
Two points I will comment on tho...
Willie Parker isnt the greatest running back and had a bad game last week
Not sure you should be so down on Parker. Shouldn't really count weeks 4 thru 14 given his injury...
...but even if we do he's had TWO bad weeks!!
138 and 105 to start the season...
Just 20 yards v. Philli but injured during the game, and Philli 4th best run D.
70 @ Washington, still not 100%, 'Skins 8th best run D anyway.
115 v. SD.
37 home v. Cinci is bad, but second game back from injury received less than half the carries. (Moore 15/56), Davis, Russell, Washington all got carries. Pittsburgh still scored 27 v. a reasonable solid D.
87 @ NE.
25 v. Dallas was bad. Again around half the carries, but shut down. Dallas 12th best run D.
47 @ Balt and 29 @ Tenn...agaisnt two of the very best run D's in the NFL. No big deal.
Bounces back with 114 & 146, before (literally of course) running into Baltimore again.
So, without getting too technical about it...against teams 12th or better agaisnt the run he's av'd 40 ypg (including the Philli game)...
...against the bottom 20 he's gone for over 106.
'Zona have been good yard-wise in the post season, but only because they've been out in front and forced the other team to throw.
Shut down Atlanta at home, with a rookie QB at the helm...
...then gave up exactly 5 y/carry @ Carolina (but only 15 attempts)
...and nearly 5.4 to Philli, but only 18 runs.
In my eyes, Arizona's ability to turn the ball over is greater than Pittsburgh's. [Same other site, but different guy this time!]
TO's...sure Arizona have (rightly so!) received a lot of credit and publicity for creating turovers in the Play-offs...
...but, 1) (If my maths is correct!) They had exactly a 0 TO margin on the season (30 lost, 30 gained)...Steelers were +4 (25 lost, 29 gained)...
...and 2) Pittsburgh are +5 in 2 post season games so far aswell.
As of right now I'm on the Steelers -6.5. :toast:
After all that I hope I'm at least close! :mj07:
Good Luck all
Cobbled this together from somewhat randon posts I've been thinking about the big game...
think Pittsburgh will put up a decent score.
I was a bit surprised when I looked, but they have played 11 games v. top 12 D's on the season! Still av'd over 22 ppg, and against 'lesser' teams, scored;
38 v. Houston (22nd) [over 400 yards]
10 @ Cleveland (26th), but in howling wind and driving rain.
31 v. Cleveland 2nd time around [over 350 not particularly trying]
26 @ Jax (17th) [over 400 yards & with no Parker]
11 v. SD (25th), but again in cold, snowy, windy conditions...still racked up over 400.
Arizona are 19th overall for yards allowed, 28th for points allowed and give up 29 ppg on the road!
I have to think the Steelers will hit a minimum of 27.
on the other hand, not counting last week's game vs. phil, when the az offense played against top 10 defenses they averaged 19.5 points per game [AR]
Very good point...20 @ Phil, 17 @ Wash, 14 v. Minni...although, to be fair, I don't think we can count the 7 @ NE in the driving snow when they had nothing to play for and no desire to even be there! (29 at home v. NYG)
They lost all 5 ats.
on the other side of the ball, the pitt. offense was ordinary this year & on the road they averaged about 20 ppg & about 312 total yards. [AR]
True, but they played 5 of 7 road games against the best 8 teams in scoring allowed!
Ten 2, Balt 3, NE 8, Phil 4, Wash 6...Zona 28th!
Steelers score, Zona probably don't.
If you are looking at regular season stats you could have found 100 differents reasons to back Carolina against Arizona and maybe more for Philly to get the job done. Nobody expected Arizona to destroy Philadelphia's secondary like they did.. and they have a better pass defense than the Steelers! [Another poster on another site.]
Carolina were an extremely surprising 18th in total D. Arizona were going to score in that game. The surprise for me was that the Panthers didn't, although 6 TO's can account a fair bit for that.
1) Philli played (imo) extremely soft D in the first half last week. Gave Warner all the time in the world to pass. When they picked it up in the second Arizona had just 1 score.
Remember that they converted a 4th down to score early too.
2) It was Philli's 3rd straight road game, and 4th in 5 weeks. Teams have proved it is possible, but has to be tough, esp. for a team who scrapped all the way through wk. 17 to get into the Play-offs.
3) I think their D was over-rated anyway...held Minni and a Plax-less NYG in the play-offs (big deal).
Played just 7 team in the top 18 for total O on the season!! Gave up 24 ppg in those games, nearly 27 if we take out the last game v. Dallas when they had given up.
Over 30 in 3 of them.
Dallas was the only team in the top 12 for pass D that Philli played for the year.
4) Pittsburgh's pass D is better. Both in y/game and y/pass. More sacks. And FAR better in stopping big plays.
Philli gave up 47 over 20 yards and 8 over 40...Pits just 23 and 2.
For me, the Steelers looked ordinary offensively against the Ravens (OK I know it was the Ravens) and looked awful when Ward went off. Willie Parker isnt the greatest running back and had a bad game last week, the play calling was predictable and the if Hines Ward is not healthy then I don't see them scoring many points at all. We saw when Sweede came on and dropped a clanger that should have been a TD, that Pittsburgh dont have great options at WR and I think this is going to really hurt them. [Same guy, other site.]
If Sweed catches that ball for an easy TD then it's a different story all together. I'd argue that getting into position is the hard part. Catching is relatively easy.
I hear what you're saying, and Ward would be a substancial loss, but pretty big difference between the Raven D and this one.
Pitts conceded 24 to San Diego [Him again]
They did, but they kinda didn't at the same time. A long TD late when the game was in the bag. In fact, both last quarter scores came when they were 18 points down. They had 10 until that point...
...and, they (SD) actually had the BEST y/pass av. in the NFL (8.4). Zona 7th @ 7.7.
Houston 2nd (8.1) who Pits dominated.
yep...It's classic offense v. defense...both game-wise, and in most punter's minds.
ONLY 4 times scoring 20 or less is certainly impressive...funny how they were against 4 of the 5 top 10 D's they'd faced on the season. Steelers are the best of the lot.
Anyway...will start going in circles soon.
Two points I will comment on tho...
Willie Parker isnt the greatest running back and had a bad game last week
Not sure you should be so down on Parker. Shouldn't really count weeks 4 thru 14 given his injury...
...but even if we do he's had TWO bad weeks!!
138 and 105 to start the season...
Just 20 yards v. Philli but injured during the game, and Philli 4th best run D.
70 @ Washington, still not 100%, 'Skins 8th best run D anyway.
115 v. SD.
37 home v. Cinci is bad, but second game back from injury received less than half the carries. (Moore 15/56), Davis, Russell, Washington all got carries. Pittsburgh still scored 27 v. a reasonable solid D.
87 @ NE.
25 v. Dallas was bad. Again around half the carries, but shut down. Dallas 12th best run D.
47 @ Balt and 29 @ Tenn...agaisnt two of the very best run D's in the NFL. No big deal.
Bounces back with 114 & 146, before (literally of course) running into Baltimore again.
So, without getting too technical about it...against teams 12th or better agaisnt the run he's av'd 40 ypg (including the Philli game)...
...against the bottom 20 he's gone for over 106.
'Zona have been good yard-wise in the post season, but only because they've been out in front and forced the other team to throw.
Shut down Atlanta at home, with a rookie QB at the helm...
...then gave up exactly 5 y/carry @ Carolina (but only 15 attempts)
...and nearly 5.4 to Philli, but only 18 runs.
In my eyes, Arizona's ability to turn the ball over is greater than Pittsburgh's. [Same other site, but different guy this time!]
TO's...sure Arizona have (rightly so!) received a lot of credit and publicity for creating turovers in the Play-offs...
...but, 1) (If my maths is correct!) They had exactly a 0 TO margin on the season (30 lost, 30 gained)...Steelers were +4 (25 lost, 29 gained)...
...and 2) Pittsburgh are +5 in 2 post season games so far aswell.
As of right now I'm on the Steelers -6.5. :toast:
After all that I hope I'm at least close! :mj07:
Good Luck all
