SUPERBOWL OF HORSE RACING 2019 BREEDERS CUP NEWS/STATS/PICKS/ ETC.

[Cnotes53]

Breeders' Cup Facts and Figures
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile


Historical Betting Notes

Favorites are 104 for 332 (31%) in the 35-year history of the event, while those that were odds on favorites (under even money) are 28 for 61 (46%). The 1990 Juvenile Fillies at Belmont produced the shortest price in Breeders? Cup history when Meadow Star returned $2.40.

Only one of the 47 horses that have gone off at 100-1 or higher has hit the board. Arcangues came from the other side of the pond to win the 1993 Classic as the biggest longshot in Breeders? Cup history, returning $269.20.

Inside Information posted the largest margin of victory in Breeders? Cup history when she walloped her competition by 13 ? lengths in the 1995 Distaff at Belmont. 23 horses have won by the shortest margin of victory, a nose, including Bar of Gold in the F&M Sprint in 2017.

Foreign based runners have had tremendous success in Breeders? Cup events. They?ve won 65 races overall, including a remarkable 54 of the 125 (43%) run on the grass. They?ve won seven on conventional dirt and four synthetic track races.

Zenyatta, Beholder, Secret Circle and Stephanie?s Kitten are the only horses to ever win two different events. Goldikova and Beholder are the only horses to ever win three Breeders? Cup races.

Horses that have won multiple Breeders? Cup races

Bayakoa ? Distaff ? 1989, 1990
Beholder ? Juvenile Fillies, 2012/Distaff, 2013, 2016
Conduit ? Turf ? 2008, 2009
Da Hoss ? Mile ? 1996, 1998
Goldencents ? Dirt Mile ? 2013, 2014
Goldikova ? Mile ? 2008, 2009, 2010
Groupie Doll ? F&M Sprint - 2012, 2013
High Chapparal ? Turf ? 2002, 2003 (dead heat w/Johar)
Lure ? Mile ? 1992, 1993
Midnight Lute ? Sprint ? 2007, 2008
Miesque ? Mile ? 1987, 1988
Mizdirection ? Turf Sprint ? 2012, 2013
Ouija Board ? F&M Turf ? 2004, 2006
Roy H ? Sprint ? 2017,2018
Royal Delta ? Distaff ? 2011, 2012
Secret Circle ? 2011 Juvenile Sprint/2013 Sprint
Stephanie?s Kitten ? 2011 Juvenile Fillies Turf/2015 F&M Turf
Stormy Liberal ? Turf Sprint ? 2017, 2018
Tiznow ? Classic ? 2000, 2001
Wise Dan ? Mile ? 2012, 2013
Zenyatta ? Distaff, 2008/Classic, 2009

 

[Cnotes53]

$2 million Juvenile tops opening day of BC
October 31, 2019
By The Associated Press

ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) Breeders' Cup weekend kicks off with five stakes Friday, topped by the $2 million Juvenile, as Santa Anita hosts the world championships for a record 10th time.

Dennis' Moment is the early 8-5 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile, whose winner is tabbed as the horse to watch heading into next year's Kentucky Derby.

The season-ending Breeders' Cup goes off amid intense scrutiny at the track where 36 horses have died since last December, prompting safety and medication reforms by track ownership and outrage from the public and animal rights activists.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-California, wrote the California Horse Racing Board urging that every precaution available be taken to ensure the horses' safety.

''I believe this weekend presents a critical test for the future of horse racing in California and in the United States,'' Feinstein wrote in the letter released by her office Friday. ''If horse racing cannot be conducted in a safe and humane manner that protects the life and safety of horses and jockeys, it may be time to re-examine the future of this sport in our state and in our country.''

Santa Anita's dirt and turf courses are being inspected daily for consistency and safety. The only allowed medication on Friday and Saturday is Lasix, an anti-bleeding medication.

Every horse in the championships has undergone at least three physical exams and been observed during training hours. Any horse whose race fitness is called into question faces additional testing and exams. A horse that flunks will be scratched.

''What sets us apart from a lot of other events is the tremendous amount of care and transparency that goes into a Breeders' Cup,'' said Dora Delgado, executive vice president of racing and nominations.

''If we can't put a product out there that gives our fans and betting public a sense of confidence than we're doing it wrong.''

Friday's races all featuring 2-year-olds are a prelude to another nine on Saturday, culminating in the $6 million Classic where McKinzie is the 3-1 favorite for Baffert. The top horses from the U.S. and Europe as well as South Korea's first entry will be running for $30 million in purses over both days.

The Juvenile features an eight-horse field.

Trained by Dale Romans, Dennis' Moment is the son of two-time BC Classic winner Tiznow. He's won two of three starts, including a 19 1/4-length win at Kentucky's Ellis Park and a 1 3/4-length win in the Iroquois at Churchilll Downs, where he beat another Juvenile rival Scabbard.

Dennis' Moment is the first favorite Romans has had going into the Breeders' Cup.

''It's a whole different type of pressure,'' he said.

Baffert, the five-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer, has a top contender, too.

He'll saddle Eight Rings, who has won two of three starts and is the 2-1 second choice in the Juvenile. He won his most recent start at Santa Anita by six lengths.

''He just has raw, raw talent,'' Baffert said. ''He's fast. He can get out of trouble. What I like about him and all my good horses is that they don't get tired. That's what separates the really good ones.''

In the $2 million Juvenile Fillies, Donna Veloce is the 3-1 favorite. She was sold for $800,000 last winter in Florida.

''We have very high aspirations for her,'' trainer Simon Callaghan said.

Baffert has a strong contender in Bast, the co-second choice at 7-2. She's coming off a neck victory at Santa Anita on Sept. 27, her first time trying two turns.

''She's really fast, but you don't know what they're going to do when they come around that second turn,'' Baffert said. ''It's amazing. Some of them it hits them right between the eyes, that distance, that second turn. We have an edge because we've already done it. That's a big thing.''

In the other $1 million races on Friday:

- Four Wheel Drive is the 3-1 favorite in the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

- Ireland-bred Arizona is the 5-2 favorite in the Juvenile Turf

- Ireland-bred Albigna is the 9-2 favorite in the Juvenile Fillies Turf

 

[Cnotes53]

At the Gate - Friday
October 31, 2019
By Mike Dempsey

Aqueduct opens today with a solid 10 race card and it is Future Stars Friday at the Breeders? Cup and we have an outstanding 10 race card at Santa Anita that features five Breeders? Cup races for two-year-olds.

The marquee event is the $2 million Breeders? Cup Juvenile (G1) which will produce the early betting favorite for next spring?s Kentucky Derby (G1).

It is an interesting showdown between two very highly regarded juveniles in Dennis? Moment and Eight Rings. Both have started three times and crossed the wire with a jockey aboard in just two of those starts.

Dennis? Moment clipped heels and dropped his jockey in his debut and has done little wrong since. He won the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in his last outing and trainer Dale Romans said he is the most talented runner that has ever been in his barn at this stage of the colt?s career.

The colt has to break from the rail and is the 8-5 morning line favorite with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.

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His main foe appears to be the Bob Baffert trained Eight Rings, who also had an episode where the jock fell off. After a smart looking maiden win in his debut he veered in and dropped his jockey Drayden Van Dyke in the Del Mar Futurity (G1).

The colt came back to win the American Pharoah (G1) in his last outing and is the second choice on the morning line at 2-1. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez has the return call on the colt.

The winner likely will win the Eclipse Award for the top juvenile and with just 183 days until the Run for the Roses, we might as well start looking forward to the first Saturday of May.

My Breeders? Cup Report is now available and over the 14 championship races we have plenty of opportunities to pad our bankroll. My Best Plays Report for Friday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Santa Anita.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my two-day Breeders? Cup Report.

To purchase my Aqueduct, Best Plays and Breeders? Cup Reports for Friday click here.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $16,000N2L (12:00 ET)
#3 Shanghai Bonnie 5-1
#5 Cheatham Hill 4-5
#4 Eight Oaks 8-1
#6 Chillinwithfriends 7-2

Analysis: Shanghai Bonnie exits a $30,000 non winners of two where she prompted the early pace and faded to finish a well beaten ninth on turf. She ran well two back where she set the early fractions in the slop before weakening to finish the. She has not been on a fast main track since back in February at Penn where she ran second. Rain fell yesterday but I am hoping by post time today we have a fast track and this gal will be up front early with Carmouche in the irons. She has the best shot of beating the chalk in here.

Cheatham Hill stalked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish third last out against state bred Alw-1 foes at Belmont Park Servis drops him in for a $16,000 tag here. Two back at the Spa this gal rallied to finish a good second going six furlongs against straight three-year-old fillies for a $32,000 tag. She catches a soft spot here but her price is going to be very much on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 3,4,5,6
TRI: 3,5 / 3,4,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6

Today?s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 9 The Tootsie (4:24 ET)
#4 Sweet Kisses 3-1
#5 Maedean 2-1
#3 Power Move 8-5
#1 Vast 6-1

Analysis: Sweet Kisses ran second in her debut at Belmont Park and then was a good looking maiden winner at the Spa in July in her second career start going six furlongs. She prompted the early pace and drew clear late to win by 2 1/4 lengths. The runner up Finite graduated at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 12 and then won the rags to Riches in her most recent outing on Oct. 27 at Churchill Downs. The third-place finisher in our top pics maiden race was Mrs. Danvers, who graduated in her next outing on Aug. 18 at the Spa. She has enough pedigree to go a mile, by Carpe Diem out of the stakes winner True Kiss ($115,418) who has dropped six other winners, top earner stakes winner Shancealot who goes in the BC Sprint (G1) tomorrow. The Englehart barn is 26% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

Maedean was fourth in her debut and last out made a good late rally from last to five to break her maiden in her second career start. The Hennig trainee earned the top last out speed fig and looks as if she still has some upside. She was a $450,000 Keeneland purchase out of a stakes placed Arch mare. Looks as if she is going to get an honest pace to run at here.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5
TRI: no play

Today?s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 9 The Breeders' Cup Juvenile G1 (4:03 PT)
#1 Dennis' Moment 8-5
#5 Scabbard 8-1
#2 Wrecking Crew 20-1
#6 Eight Rings 2-1

Analysis: Dennis' Moment is perfect in two starts after clipping heels and dumping the jockey in his debut. Her broke his maiden at Ellis Park by 19/1 lengths earning a 97 Beyer Speed Figure, the top number by a juvenile so far this year. He stretched out to two turns for the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs and passed the test, tracking the early pace and taking command heading for home, wining for fun by 1 3/4 lengths and the margin could have been much larger The colt is making a very good impression here this week. The fifth-place finisher in the Iroquois was Rowdy Yates, who came back to win the Oklahoma Classics Juvenile in his next start at Remington Park. The $400,000 purchase is by Tiznow out of an Elusive Quality mare, her first foal to race. Romans is 0 for 8 in the Juvenile, the best finish a second in with Not This Time in 2016. The Iroquois has not been a key race for the Juvenile but we will overlook that small fact. H draws the rail so Irad is going to need to get him out and clear early and this guy is fast enough he could wire this field or sit off of it. With Maxfield out and Eight Rings not making nearly as good an impression this week, this guy is going to get hammered in the betting.

Scabbard was second in the Iroquois and while he was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths that was a misleading margin. The colt stalked the early pace while saving ground, had to steady at the half mile pole and was making up ground late while no real threat to the winner. He was better than five lengths clear of the rest of the field. He ran second in the Saratoga Special (G2) two back in his first start against winners, racing under the name Noose. He looks capable of moving forward in his second route. Her is by More Than Ready out of a stakes placed Gone West mare. He is in good hands with Kenneally who is 0 for 5 with his Breeders' Cup starters. He picks up Smith which is a plus and should be a decent price.

Wrecking Crew stretches out to a route for the first time here. Three Juvenile winners have gone sprint to route?Brocco (?93), Johannesburg (?01) and Stevie Wonderboy (?05). The colt made a good late rally to finish second in the Best Pal (G2) two back in his second career start and then was a good second last out in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). This colt was a $875,000 purchase, a big number for a Sky Kingdom runner who stands for just $5,000. The Yes It's True mare has dropped just one other runner, not yet a winner. The Miller barn is 20% winners moving runners from sprint to route. He will be forwardly placed and can be in the mix if he avoids mixing it up early with our fourth choice.

Eight Rings was a much the best winner of the American Pharoah (G1) last out, a race that has produced three of the last five winners of this race (was previously the Frontrunner). The $520,000 purchase is by Empire Maker out of the stakes winner Purely Hot ($426,925). He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and figures to be in the mix early. The colt is not getting the best reviews this week for his morning work and I was not crazy about his last work where it looked like he was getting tired late although it was over a deep track. Baffert has won this race four times including last year with Game Winner, but this guy has the look of an underlay here and we will try and beat him for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,2,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #4 Eight Oaks 8-1
R2: #4 Felony Melanie 12-1
R2: #8 Empress Luciana 12-1
R4: #3 Snow Lion 8-1
R6: #9 Silky Blue 8-1
R8: #9 Ideational 10-1
R10: #6 Happy Music 8-1
R10: #2 Clever Tale 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Cnotes53]

2019 Breeders' Cup Preview
November 1, 2019
By VI News

DAY 1 - FRIDAY, NOV. 1, 2019

Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time Stabile's Preview

Juvenile Turf Sprint $1,000,000 5 1/2 furlongs (Turf) 4:12 p.m. ET Analysis

Juvenile Turf $1,000,000 1 mile (Turf) 4:52 p.m. ET Analysis

Juvenile Fillies $2,000,000 1 1⁄16 miles 5:32 p.m. ET Analysis

Juvenile Fillies Turf $1,000,000 1 mile (Turf) 6:12 p.m. ET Analysis

Juvenile $2,000,000 1 1⁄16 miles 7:03 p.m. ET Analysis


DAY 2 - SATURDAY, NOV. 2, 2019

Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time Stabile's Preview

Filly & Mare Sprint $1,000,000 7 furlongs 2:55 p.m. ET Analysis

Turf Sprint $1,000,000 5 1/2 furlongs (Turf) 3:33 p.m. ET Analysis

Dirt Mile $1,000,000 1 mile 4:10 p.m. ET Analysis

Filly & Mare Turf $2,000,000 1 3/8 miles (Turf) 4:54 p.m. ET Analysis

Sprint $2,000,000 6 furlongs 5:36 p.m. ET Analysis

Mile $2,000,000 1 mile (Turf) 6:20 p.m. ET Analysis

Distaff $2,000,000 1 1/8 miles 7:00 p.m. ET Analysis

Turf $4,000,000 1 1/2 miles (Turf) 7:40 p.m. ET Analysis

Classic $6,000,000 1 1/4 miles 8:44 p.m. ET Analysis

 

[Cnotes53]

Favorites, top contenders for Day 1 of BC
October 31, 2019
By The Associated Press

ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) The early favorites and top contenders in Friday's five Breeders' Cup races at Santa Anita:

JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

Purse: $1 million

Distance: 5 furlongs

Favorite: Four Wheel Drive, 3-1 odds

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Trainer: Wesley Ward

Record and earnings this year: 2 wins in 2 starts; $142,500

Four Wheel Drive leads the Ward brigade in the first of five stakes for 2-year-olds on opening day of Breeders' Cup. Ward also sends out a pair of fillies to face the boys: Kimari (7-2) and Cambria (12-1), giving him three of the 12 runners in the field. Four Wheel Drive, a son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, has easily won stakes at Colonial Downs and Belmont Park.

Keep an eye on: Kimari looms as the top threat. She has won three of four heading into this showdown with her stablemate Four Wheel Drive. A'Ali (6-1), one of six European-based horses in the race, has won graded stakes in England and France.

JUVENILE TURF

Purse: $1 million

Distance: 1 mile

Favorite: Arizona, 5-2 odds

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Record and earnings this year: 2 wins in 6 starts; $331,669

Irish champions O'Brien and Moore have combined to win this race four times and they return with one of Europe's leading 2-year-olds. The colt has already competed against top-level runners in England, Ireland and France, and looks like the class of this field despite drawing the far outside post in the 12-horse field.

Keep an eye on: Christophe Clement, one of the leading U.S. turf trainers, looks to break a 0-for-36 Breeders' Cup skid with Decorated Invader (4-1). The colt won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. Structor (5-1) is unbeaten in two races.

JUVENILE FILLIES

Purse: $2 million

Distance: 1 1/16 miles

Favorite: Donna Veloce, 3-1 odds

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Trainer: Simon Callaghan

Record and earnings this year: 1 win in 1 start; $30,000.

A dazzling winner in her lone race at Santa Anita last month, Donna Veloce faces a stiff assignment as she steps up to face more seasoned foes. The daughter of Uncle Mo (who was undefeated as a 2-year-old) was an $800,000 purchase from a 2-year-old sale in March and can earn that back, and then some, with a victory here.

Keep an eye on: There's a trio of fillies listed as 7-2 second choices: British Idiom, Bast and Wicked Whisper. All three earned Grade 1 wins in their latest efforts, and it would not be a surprise to see one of them edge out Donna Veloce as the post-time favorite. Bast will certainly have her local backers following wins in the Debutante at Del Mar and the Chandelier at Santa Anita for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Purse: $1 million

Distance: 1 mile

Favorite: Albigna, 9-2 odds

Jockey: Shane Foley

Trainer: Jessica Harrington

Record and earnings this year: 3 wins in 4 starts; $356,371.

Talented European runner bounced back from her lone career defeat to win a Grade 1 stakes in France while stretching out to this one-mile distance over soft turf. Her biggest challenge could be the surface transition. The turf course at parched Santa Anita will be rock hard.

Keep an eye on: Daahyeh (5-1) has 3 wins and 2 seconds in her five starts. This will be her first test beyond 7 furlongs. Sweet Melania (5-1) is the co-second choice and the top North American hopeful. After two mediocre races on dirt, she picked up her game with the switch to turf and was a dominant winner most recently in the Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland for trainer Todd Pletcher.

JUVENILE

Purse: $2 million

Distance: 1 1/16 miles

Favorite: Dennis' Moment, 8-5 odds

Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Trainer: Dale Romans

Record and earnings this year: 2 wins in 3 starts; $147,800.

Clipped the heels of a rival in his debut and dumped the rider in the lone defeat. He has been sensational ever since, posting a 19 \\-length maiden win before capturing the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. The Juvenile is the kickoff to next year's Triple Crown and this looks like one of the serious players on that road.

Keep an eye on: Eight Rings (2-1) has a remarkably similar profile to Dennis' Moment. He's also 2 for 3 with the lone loss coming when the jockey fell off in the Del Mar Futurity. As a result, John Velazquez picked up the mount for Bob Baffert, a union of Hall of Famers, and he has the home-field advantage in this showdown. Baffert has won this race four times, including last year with Game Winner. Storm the Court (20-1) also dumped his rider in the Del Mar Futurity and was no match for Eight Rings last time. Should be closer to the pace with addition of blinkers.

 

[Cnotes53]

Maxfield out of Breeders' Cup Juvenile
October 29, 2019
By The Associated Press

ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) Maxfield has been scratched from the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile because of an unspecified issue with his right front leg.

Trainer Brendan Walsh and Jimmy Bell, president of Godolphin USA, say they noticed the 2-year-old colt wasn't himself when he went to train at Santa Anita on Tuesday.

Bell says it could be something as simple as a bruised foot, but they want to be protective of the colt.

Maxfield was the 3-1 third choice for the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile, the highlight of Friday's card at the two-day world championships.

His defection reduces the Juvenile field to eight horses, its smallest since nine ran in 2012 at Santa Anita.

Maxfield is unbeaten in two career starts, including a 5+-length victory in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 5.

''We have a great horse on our hands,'' Bell said, ''and we look very much forward to next year.''

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Mile
October 29, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 mile on turf
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 6:20 pm EDT

The History

Where should I start?!?! Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994. Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998.

And, of course, Goldikova won three in a row from 2008 through 2010 before finishing third in 2011. In 2012, Wise Dan capped off his Horse of the Year campaign with a popular Mile score over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and came back to defend his Mile title in 2013. It?s worth noting that Goldikova?s trainer Freddie Head has won three and is a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders? Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque.

Favorites: 12 for 35 (34%)
Shortest: $3.60 (Wise Dan, 2012)
Highest: $131.60 (Court Vision, 1986)
U.S based: 21/Foreign based: 14

The champ is here?

Best

Uni won for the sixth time in seven starts at this distance when she powered home to take the G1 First Lady at Keeneland by over two lengths while setting the course record in the process. It?s worth noting that the colts went over a second slower an hour later in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile.

Trained by Chad Brown, Uni has won six of her last seven starts with her lone defeat coming against the boys in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga two back, her lone loss at the trip, when the field was stretched out by a runaway leader. While she hasn?t raced at Santa Anita, she did take the G1 Matriarch at Del Mar in her only start in SoCal.

Got Stormy has had a fantastic season, winning half of her six starts, including the Fourstardave by over two lengths against Uni and the boys two back in course record time, going the mile in 1:32. What?s more impressive is that win came a week after a tally in the De La Rose by four lengths where she just missed the course record.

Earlier this season, Got Stormy was third in the G1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland behind Rushing Fall and second in the G2 Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill on Kentucky Derby Day for trainer Mark Casse.

Rest

Bolo won the G1 Shoemaker Mile over this course in gate-to-wire fashion two starts back at almost 33-1, his first win in over two years after missing all of the 2018 season, before failing to fire in both the G2 Del Mar Mile and G2 City of Hope Mile.

Bowies Hero grinded out the Shadwell Turf Mile last out when he closed into a dawdling early pace. Earlier this season he won the G2 Eddie Read going nine furlongs at Del Mar. He?s won seven of his 15 starts at a mile and three of nine locally.

Sophomore Circus Maximus won a thrilling stretch duel to take the G1 Prix du Moulin back in September for Aidan O?Brien, his third win in six tries at the distance. Earlier this year he won the G1 St. James?s Palace during the Royal Ascot meeting.

El Tormenta gave one of Woodbines leading riders Eurico da Silva the biggest win of his career when he upset the G1 Woodbine Mile at over 44-1 in the rider?s final attempt before retirement. He?s two for three with a second in his career at this distance despite having spent most of it sprinting.

Hey Gaman ships in from Europe and has won just twice in 12 starts over the past two years with the majority of his success coming as a juvenile back in 2017. He?ll be looking for his first win at the trip in his fifth attempt.

Lord Glitters upset the G1 Queen Anne during the Royal Ascot meet at 14-1 but has failed to hit the board in three starts against G1 competition since. His lone trip stateside resulted in a sixth-place finish in the 2018 Woodbine Mile.

Lucullan returned from a 14-month layoff in July and has won three of his four starts since the break with his lone defeat coming in the Woodbine Mile when he was disqualified from third for drifting in deep stretch. Last out he defeated dual G1 winner Catholic Boy in the G2 Knickerbocker going nine furlongs at Belmont just 19 days prior to this.

Space Traveller stormed home to win a G2 in Ireland last out, his second win from seven starts this season in his first ever start at a mile, He?s faced older just three times in his career.

Suedois flew home to get the show-dough in the Shadwell last out, a race he won when he shipped over in 2017 for the first time. Fourth in this behind World Approval that year, he?s won just once in 13 starts in Europe since. He picks up an American-based rider, Javier Castellano, for the first time.

Trais Fluors cuts back to this trip off of a pair of third place finishes in G3 events in France going 10 furlongs. He?s winless in six starts since taking his fiver-year-old debut back in March and has won just twice in his 14 starts over the past two seasons.

True Valour took the G3 Thunder Road from off the pace before going to the sidelines for eight months. He returned a little less than a month ago to take the City of Hope with a similar late rally.

Without Parole makes his U.S. debut and first start for Chad Brown seeking his first win since taking the 2018 St. James?s Palace. After starting his career with four consecutive victories, he?s lost his last five. This will be his first start in over five months.

Caribou Club won his last pair at Mountaineer and Laurel and owns two wins over this course while Next Shares won the 2018 Shadwell. Both are on the AE list.

If I?m Right?
This isn?t the toughest Mile we?ve ever seen and that?s compounded by the fact that the Euro contingent looks extremely average.

Live Longshot
Without Parole is making his first start for Chad Brown in the B.C. Mile? That?s enough reason for me to try him at 20-1.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Juvenile Turf
October 29, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 mile on turf
Purse: $1 million
Age: 2YO(c&g)
Date: Friday, November 1
Time: 4:52 pm EDT

The History
Contested by both sexes in its inaugural running back in 2007 and featured the Breeders? Cup debut of Gio Ponti, who had a nightmare trip.

Favorites: 2 for 12 (17%)
Shortest: $6.80 (Pounced, 2009)
Highest: $27.20 (Nownownow, 2007)
U.S based: 4/Foreign based: 8

We ditch the traditional format for alphabetical order due to the mix of U.S. and Euro runners as well as age and lack of experience.

Andesite missed by just a head in the G3 Pilgrim at Belmont having finished third two back in the G3 With Anticipation at Saratoga. He?ll be cutting back a sixteenth of a mile in distance.

Arizona ships over for Aidan O?Brien off of a pair of in-the-trifecta finishes in G1 races. He?s won two of his six starts and this will be his first try beyond seven furlongs.

Billy Batts sheds blinkers off of a third-place finish in the Zuma Beach. He?ll get his sixth different rider for his seventh start.

Decorated Invader is looking for his third straight tally after missing by less than a length when running on late in his debut at the Spa for Christophe Clement. A maiden win next out was followed by a rally past most of his rivals to win the G1 Summer at Woodbine at this trip around one turn.

Fort Myers ships over the pond a perfect two-for-two on all-weather surfaces but winless in five starts on turf.

Maiden Gear Jockey set the pace in his turf debut two back before tiring to second then finished third after making the lead in deep stretch of the Bourbon.

Graceful Kitten is undefeated in all three of his starts at Gulfstream, taking his maiden in June from off the pace, then a couple of minor stakes in August and September on the front end.

Hit the Road broke his maiden at Del Mar going a mile then won the Zuma Beach some nine weeks later over this course and at the trip, with similar off-the-pace rallies.

Our Country broke his maiden second out at the Spa then had some equipment trouble when fourth as the favorite in the With Anticipation. Last out, he was widest of all when falling a little more than a length short in the Pilgrim where he was third.

Peace Achieved went winless in his first two sprinting but has since rattled off three in a row at different tracks in Kentucky since Mark Casse stretched him out and added blinkers. He?s employed a similar stalking style to take his tallies, including last out in the G3 Bourbon at Keeneland.

Proven Strategies will be seeking his first victory in his fifth try coming off a fourth-place finish in the Summer.

Structor will try to remain undefeated having broken his maiden at Saratoga before taking the Pilgrim with a game effort last out, both at 8.5 furlongs. Chad Brown reaches out for Jose Ortiz as brother Irad opts for Decorated Invader.

Vitalogy stormed home from outside post 14 and fell a neck short of passing all of his rivals in the final quarter mile when he settled for second in the Bourbon. He?s winless in three starts since taking his debut in Europe.

War Beast broke his maiden in his fourth try when blinkers were added then tired to finish second in the Zuma Beach.

Lone also eligible Deviant was eleventh in the Bourbon after taking a couple of minor stakes at Retama and Louisiana Downs.

If I?m Right?
Despite their dominance since this events inception, the Euros seem to be a tad weak this year.

Live Longshot
Our Country has had some tough luck in his two stakes try and could be dangerous if he pulls any kind of trip at 15-1.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Juvenile Fillies Turf
October 29, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 mile on turf
Purse: $1 million
Age: 2YOf
Date: Friday, November 1
Time: 6:12 pm EDT

The History
Created in 2008, a year after the Juvenile Turf where fillies were forced to face colts, there isn?t much. Flotilla and Chriselliam won consecutive runnings of this in 2012 and 2013 for Europe after the U.S. won the first four runnings.

Favorites: 2 for 11 (18%)
Shortest: $3.20 (Newspaperofrecord, 2018)
Highest: $29.20 (More Than Real, 2010)
U.S based: 9/Foreign based: 2

We ditch the traditional format for alphabetical order due to the mix of U.S. and Euro runners as well as age and lack of experience.

Abscond broke her maiden at Ellis Park then ran second in a minor stakes at Saratoga, both at 5.5 furlongs, before stretching out to win the G1 Natalma while alternating on the lead throughout the one-mile affair.

Albigna has won three of four in Europe including a G1 on the Arc undercard in her first start at this distance. She?s one of just a handful of Euros who will race without Lasix over the course of B.C. weekend.

Croughavouke has finished second in a couple of minor stakes at Del Mar and over this course at the trip since breaking her maiden second out in her native Ireland.

Crystalle was wrongfully disqualified from the win in her debut at Saratoga before returning to win it?s P.G. Johnson in her next start. Last out, she fell victim to the slowest pace she?s seen thus far and fell less than a length short when second in the Miss Grillo at Belmont.

Daahyeh owns three wins and two seconds from five starts including a score in the G2 Albany at Royal Ascot against 24 rivals and last out in a G2 in England. This will be her first start around a turn and beyond seven furlongs.

Etoile broke her maiden early in the season before returning from a four-plus month break to finish eighth in a G1, both at six furlongs for Aidan O?Brien.

Fair Maiden earned back-to-back Beyers of 90 and 91 when she broke her maiden against the boys on the all-weather surface at Arlington then won a minor stakes at Woodbine before finishing third in a three-horse photo in the Natalma.

Living in the Past won a G2 two starts back in England and will be making her first start beyond six furlongs.

Selflessly flew home to be second in a turf sprint at Saratoga in her debut before making a move on the far turn to hold on and win the Miss Grillo by less than a length.

Shadn has won three of her six starts, two on turf, including a G2 in France most recently and stretches out for the first time.

Sharing closed to be third in a turf sprint at in her debut then broke her maiden by daylight in an off-the-turf event, both at Saratoga. Last out, trainer Graham Motion added blinkers and she stretched out to win the Selima at Laurel by over two lengths.

Sweet Melania broke her maiden in her third start, her turf debut, at Saratoga after starting her career with a couple of third place finishes in dirt sprints. After losing the P.G. Johnson by a neck she came back to win the G2 Jessamine at Keeneland in gate-to-wire fashion by over five lengths a little over three weeks before this.

Tango has won just twice in eight starts and was off the board in five starts against graded stakes foes in Europe.

Unforgetable returns to filly competition for the first time since a runner-up performance in a G2 in Ireland having tried the boys unsuccessfully in her last pair.

If I?m Right?
The U.S. dominance should continue. Between the faster paces, having to run around two turns, let alone one, I think it?s just too much for the young fillies shipping over to handle.

Live Longshot
Sharing really seemed to improve with the blinkers in her last start. She should be in the 10-1 range.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Turf Sprint
October 29, 2019
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 5 furlongs on turf
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 3:33 pm EDT

The History
Run down the hill going 6 ? furlongs in its first two runnings before going to this distance in 2011. Mizdirection became the first female to win the event in 2012 and first to repeat in 2013, when there was a dead-heat for second between Tightend Touchdown and Reneesgotzip.

Favorites: 4 for 11 (36%)
Shortest: $6.60 (Regally Ready, 2011)
Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008)
U.S based: 11/Foreign based: 0

The champ is here? Yes. Two-time defending champ Stormy Liberal is looking to join Goldikova as the only horses to win three consecutive runnings of an event

A yearly ritual?I never use my traditional format for this race. Too much going on in these turf sprints.

Also, you may want to keep in mind that, depending on which past performances you use, they?ll group five furlong and five and a half furlong races together in the DISTANCE column of the PPs. I?ve included their lifetime record at THIS distance next to each name.

Here is the field, in alphabetical order.

Belvoir Bay (5-3-2-0) makes her first start since finishing fourth against the boys in the G1 Jaipur at Belmont back on Belmont Stakes day. She?s a big fan of the distance as well as the local course having won six of her nine tries locally.

Eddie Haskell (14-9-3-2) capped of a three-race win streak when he walked the dog on the front end at Del Mar this summer before a couple of less than stellar trips, including get shuffled out in the G2 Eddie D, the local prep for this, last out resulted in a couple of runner-up finishes.

Final Frontier (No starts) has turned into a top turf sprinter on the East Coast and won his first stakes in the Belmont Turf Sprint Championship going six furlongs when he sat off the pace to wear down the leader in the final strides.

Imprimis (7-5-0-0) is winless in three starts since a senseless trip to Royal Ascot in June. In his two starts prior to the ship across the pond, he romped in a minor stakes at Gulfstream then fell to his face at the start of the G2 Shakertown at Keeneland but still managed to get up by a neck in the last jumps.

Legends of War (4-1-1-1) took down an entry level allowance/optional claimer at Del Mar two back, his first stateside victory in five tries, from off the pace at this trip then wired the G3 Franklin Simpson at Kentucky Downs going an extra furlong and a half.

Leinster (No starts) capped off a three-wine streak with a score in the G3 Troy at Saratoga over now-retired, world record-holder Disco Partner at Saratoga then finished third in the G3 Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs and second in the G2 Woodford after making the lead in the stretch.

Om (No starts) missed by a nose in this event when it was run down the hill over the course back in 2016 but has won just two of his 15 starts since, including his most recent, some four months ago in a money allowance contest at Churchill.

Pure Sensation (14-9-1-3) won the G3 Turf Monster at Parx for a record fourth time last out. Third in this back in 106 then fifth after setting the pace in 2017, he comes into this the most accomplished and experienced runner at the trip.

Shekky Shebaz (No starts) made the first 13 starts of his career on the all-weather surface at Presque Isle Downs for wiring a field of $25K claimers at Saratoga in his turf debut. After being privately purchased out of that event, he wired a restricted stakes at the Spa over Final Frontier before tiring late in the Belmont Turf Sprint Championship to finish second.

Two-time defending champ Stormy Liberal (6-3-1-2) is looking to snap a six-race losing streak as he hasn?t won since his title defense last season. He?s finished third in three starts this year, including the G1 Al Quoz Sprint on the Dubai World Cup undercard and most recently in the Eddie D where he failed to take advantage of a perfect trip.

Stubbins (1-0-0-1) has won half of his eight starts this year, including the Woodford from a long way back most recently. He?s perfect in two starts over the course in the downhill races and will need plenty of help on the front end.

Totally Boss (1-1-0-0) has won four of his five starts this year, including the Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs last out and is Om?s nose shy of being undefeated this season.

The filly Girls Know Best (5-3-1-0) has plenty of speed and beat the boys in an allowance/optional claimer two back at Churchill while Double Touch (1-0-0-0) was fourth in his first start off the claim in the Eddie D last out. Both are on the AE list.

If I?m Right?
At this distance, this becomes one of the more unpredictable races of the weekend. I have trouble with turf sprints in general but these five-furlong races are even tougher. I feel like I want to lean on the horses that have early speed.

Live Longshot
I?m really curious to see how the public bets Shekky Shebaz. I think he?s as likely a winner as any in here and would love to get 10-1 on him though I?m not sure we will.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Juvenile Turf Sprint
October 29, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 5 furlongs on turf
Purse: $1 million
Age: 2YO
Date: Friday, November 1
Time: 4:12 pm EDT

The History
Inaugural running was won in gate-to-wire fashion by Bulletin at Churchill last year.

Favorites: 0 for 1 (0%)
Shortest/Highest: $10.60 (Bulletin, 2018)
U.S based: 1/Foreign based: 0

We ditch the traditional format for alphabetical order due to the mix of U.S. and Euro runners as well as age and lack of experience.

A? Ali has won three G2 events in Europe, all under his rider for this Frankie Dettori. It?s worth noting that like most of the Europeans runners in here this will be his first start around a turn.

Alligator Alley disappointed as the even-money favorite when sixth to A? Ali last out having won two of his six starts.

Another Miracle broke his maiden in an off-the-turf race then won the Skidmore on the lawn at Saratoga before failing to fire against several of these in the G3 Futurity at Belmont.

The filly Band Practice comes over on a three-race win streak, including a tally against the boys most recently.

Cambria began her career with a couple of easy wins over the all-weather surface at Presque Isle Downs against fillies before getting up in the final strides in her turf debut and against the boys in a stakes at Kentucky Downs.

Chimney Rock won a restricted maiden event at Saratoga in his third start before making up plenty of ground late to be second to Cambria and in the Indian Summer last out.

Dr Simpson beat the boys in a G3 over in Ireland over an all-weather surface most recently and is just one for seven on the turf.

Dream Shot has won two of his eight starts, one on turf, and was second behind A? Ali and Dr Simpson in his last pair.

Encoder won his first two starts, his maiden at this trip and a minor stakes going a mile, before tiring at a mile last out as the prohibitive chalk.

Probable favorite Four Wheel Drive has been sensational in his first two starts, an easy debut tally in a Colonial Downs stakes and the G3 Futurity at Belmont last out.

Kimari has won three of her four starts, two against the boys, including the Indian Summer with a last-to-first move last out, with her lone blemish coming at Ascot in a G2 in the second start of her career.

King Neptune is winless in eight turf starts for Coolmore since breaking his maiden in his debut over an all-weather surface back in mid-April.

Bulletproof One was second in his only turf start; Air Force Jet has won twice from eight tries in Europe; Fore Left has won half of his six starts on dirt; Karak beat boys in Tyro before a fourth-place finish in the G3 Matron at Belmont. These horses are on the AE list.

If I?m Right?
Turf sprints are evil. I?m not sure about the Euros but Four Wheel Drive should be able to handle his U.S. rivals with relative ease.

Live Longshot
Chimney Rock always seems to show up. Look for him to get into the exotics at 10-1 or so.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Turf
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 ? miles on turf
Purse: $4 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 7:40 pm EDT

The History
Pebbles in 1985 and Miss Alleged in 1991 are the only two fillies to have beaten the boys in this. Theatrical finally got the job done in 1987 and more importantly helped forge the Bill Mott/Allen Paulson partnership that would rule the sport for a decade. Kotashaan capped an amazing Horse of the Year season with a win in 1993. High Chaparral won it in 2002, then dead-heated with Johar in 2003, the only dead heat for win in Breeders? Cup history. Better Talk Now won it in 2004 before failing to do so the next four years. Conduit won consecutive runnings in 2008 and 2009. In 2011, trainer Aidan O?Brien trained St. Nicholas Abbey to win with his son Joe in the saddle. Main Sequence won his fourth G1 in as many tries with his patented late run to take it down in 2014. Two-time Arc winner Enable came over to dominate her American rivals in 2018.

Favorites: 10 for 35 (29%)
Shortest: $3.60 (Enable, 2018)
Highest: $108.80 (Lashkari, 1984)
U.S based: 13/Foreign based: 23

The champ is here? No. Enable will remain in training next year but will not be coming over from Europe for this.

Best

The amazing Bricks and Mortar will look to cap off a remarkable comeback and spectacular career with a win in the Turf, his first start at this trip for Chad Brown who has done a tremendous training job getting him back to the races after a 15-month break.

He?s won all six starts dating back to a money allowance score at Gulfstream back in December. He followed that with a win in the inaugural G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf over yielding ground then gutted it out while chasing the pace in the G2 Muniz at Fair Grounds.

Bricks and Mortar followed with a powerful late rally to win the G1 Turf Classic at Churchill on Derby Day, beat fellow Brown runners Robert Bruce and Raging Bull in the G1 Manhattan on Belmont Day then rallied to win the G1 Arlington Million when he finally found daylight in the stretch.

Since his return, Bricks and Mortar has wix wins at five different tracks going four different distances over ground labeled firm, good and yielding.

G1 Epsom Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck will fly the Aidan O?Brien/Coolmore banner as Magical, runner-up in this event behind Enable last year, will try Sistercharlie in the F&M Turf earlier on the card.

Since his Epsom score, Anthony Van Dyck is winless in three starts, having finished second in the G1 Irish Derby than far behind Enable in the G1 King George and Queen Elizabeth and third to Magical in the G1 Irish Champions, bot against older rivals. He was off the board in his lone U.S. start, last year?s Juvenile Turf.

Rest

Former claimer Acclimate won the G3 San Juan Capistrano at 14 furlongs back in June over the course and the G2 Del Mar Handicap going 11 panels two back, both in gate-to-wire fashion before getting caught in the final stages of the G2 John Henry Turf Classic most recently.

Alounak finished second in the G1 Canadian International at Woodbine in his North American debut last out at this trip. A G3 winner two back going 10 furlongs in Germany two starts back, he?s winless in four starts at this distance in his career.

Arklow switched tactics and laid up closer to the pace to nail down his first G1 in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, his first win in six starts this year. Fourth in this event last year, he just missed in both the G1 Man O?War, G2 Belmont Gold Cup and G3 Bowling Green earlier this year.

Bandua stretches out off of a series of turf tries at shorter trips. Winner of the G3 Arlington Handicap before a solid third-place finish after setting the pace in the Million, he comes into this off of an eight-place finish in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile where he was beaten just two lengths.

Channel Cat upset the Bowling Green at over 13-1 when he was left alone on the front end before being taken off the pace when third in the G1 Sword Dancer and fourth in the Joe Hirsch.

Channel Maker fought every step of the way when trying to defend his Joe Hirsch title from a year ago before settling for second. He won the Man O?War, his only tally in seven tries this year and has some experience in the local course, with a third-place finish in the G1 Kilroe Mile in 2018 his best effort.

Mount Everest will try top company for the first time in his U.S. debut. The sophomore got his first win against older in his third try in a minor stakes in his native Ireland just two weeks prior to this.

Old Persian took advantage of a quick pace to win the G1 Northern Dancer in his first start on this side of the Atlantic Ocean as the 3-5 chalk. Earlier this year he won the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic on the World Cup undercard and is a five-time winner overall at this distance.

United closed from well back to grab the show dough in the John Henry and will be making his first start at the trip and against this level of competition.

Zulu Alpha has won three G3 events at this distance ? the Sycamore at Keeneland, McKnight at Gulfstream and Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs ? in his career, the last coming two back before he beat just one home in the Joe Hirsch.

If I?m Right?
Bricks and Mortar can take home Horse of the Year honors with a victory in his first start beyond 10 furlongs. The added distance could be his only rival in the Turf.

Live Longshot
Channel Maker always seems to show up and should appreciate the firm ground at Santa Anita. He figures to get lost in the shuffle in the wagering.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Filly & Mare Turf
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 ? miles on turf
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up(f&m)
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 4:54 pm EDT

The History
Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Her trainer Ed Dunlop and the late Bobby Frankel each won two runnings while Kieran Fallon and Jerry Bailey have each ridden a pair of winners. One of the all-time greats Sistercharlie got home in the last strides at Churchill Downs in 2018.

Favorites: 5 for 20 (25%)
Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
U.S based: 19/Foreign based: 8

The champ is here? Yes! Sistercharlie will look to join Ouija Board as a two-time winner of this event.

Best

The great Sistercharlie is just one of two returning Breeders? Cup champs from last year and her defense was made that much easier when it was announced on draw day that the Euro filly Magical, second to Enable in the Turf last year, had been retired.

Magical is a good word to describe Sistercharlie?s career since he shipped over from Europe midway through her three-year-old season.

With seven G1 wins, Sistercharlie has won every major stakes race for older fillies and mares on the turf in the country with her powerful come-from-behind kick, including the Diana at Saratoga and Beverly D at Arlington for the past two years. This year, after missing the first half of the year, she followed up her title defenses in the aforementioned races with a score in the G1 Flower Bowl at Belmont, her lone win at this distance in four tries.

As has been the case for the past year or so, Thais will serve as Sistercharlie?s pacesetter or ?rabbit,? though traditional rabbits don?t set as slow a pace as she did in the Flower Bowl where she managed to hang on for third.

Rest

Billesdon Brook won her last two, including a G1 at Newmarket in England most recently going a mile, and three of her last four overall. She was fourth in the G1 Nassau back in August of last year in her lone try at this distance and appears better suited to shorter trips.

Castle Lady tries older for the first time having finished a solid second to Cambier Parc in the G1 QEII Challenge Cup at Keeneland in her stateside debut off of a near four-month layoff. She?s winless in both starts since taking a G! at a mile in France back in May.

Fanny Logan has won her last four starts against lesser company and will be making her first start against this kind. She is a perfect four-for-four at thus distance with a win in a G3 at Newmarket last out her biggest score to date.

Fleeting is seeking her first win of the year as she makes her second trip across the pond for Coolmore. Eligible for a second-level allowance contest, she?s finished second in three of her eight starts this season, including the G1 Prix de l?Opera on the Arc undercard and was fourth in the Beverly D.

Sophomore filly Iridessa has taken two of her last four, a pair of G1 races against older rivals, after being a non-factor in the important races for three-year-old fillies in Europe. In one of those wins, she defeated Magic Wand at this distance, her lone try at the trip. She had first preference in the Mile but will run here.

Just Wonderful will be making her third start in the U.S. this year and fourth overall here having finished a non-threatening seventh in the G1 First Lady most recently going a mile at Keeneland. Though winless in two starts at this distance, she did run second to top three-year-old filly Concrete Rose in the G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational going the trip in July and is another who was first preference for the Mile who ends up in here.

Former claimer Mirth took them flag-fall-to-that?s-all last out in the G1 Rodeo Drive over this course and at this trip in what was her graded stakes debut. She was second in her other try at the trip in a minor stakes.

Mrs. Sippy won her U.S. debut two back at Saratoga going 11 furlongs in the G2 Glens Falls when she got up in the latter stages before giving Sistercharlie all she can handle when she missed by less than a length in the Flower Bowl. Lasix has really seemed to help this filly.

Santa Anita win-machine Vasilika has won a remarkable 11 of 12 starts over the local turf including the 2018 Rodeo Drive in her lone start at this distance. Claimed for $40K in her first start in SoCal after shipping in from Gulfstream in February 2018, she?s won eight graded stakes and over $1 million

Villa Marina owns three wins and a pair of runner-up finishes from five starts at this distance including a gutsy score in the Prix de l?Opera last out in just her second start against older foes.

If I?m Right?
The defection of Magical kills any chance of getting a price on Sistercharlie, who now may very well be the shortest priced favorite over the two days.

Live Longshot
I?m going to cheat and give you two because I have a feeling Mrs. Sippy might get over bet. Fanny Logan won?t be. And while it?s hard for me to envision either winning I?m using both of them in my exotic plays.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Sprint
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 6 furlongs
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 5:36 pm EDT

The History
Dayjur was home free in 1990 before famously jumping a shadow at Belmont Park and allowing Safely Kept to become one of three fillies to win this. Thirty Slews won the 1992 running, introducing the world to a then unknown trainer by the name of Bob Baffert.

Kona Gold ran in the Sprint five times, grabbing the brass ring just once in 2000. Midnight Lute won back to back races in 2007 and 2008, while 2011 Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle won the 2013 renewal with just one prep in over 18 months. In 2016, Drefong gave Baffert five wins to in the event.

Favorites: 8 for 35 (23%)
Shortest: $4.60 (Ellio, 1984)
Highest: $54.60 (Sheikh Albadou, 1991)

The champ is here? No. Roy H will not be looking to win his third straight Sprint.

Best

Mitole will try to lay claim to Horse of the Year honors while seeking his first G1 win at this Sprint distance for trainer Steve Asmussen. A picture of consistency throughout his career, Mitole has finished in the trifecta in all 13 starts, including nine wins.

After having his sophomore campaign cut short in May 2018, Mitole returned from an almost ten-month break and picked up right where he left off this season, winning his first four starts of the year, including the G1 Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day going seven furlongs and the historic, G! Metropolitan Handicap going a mile on Belmont Stakes Day.

Perhaps the Met Mile took its toll on Mitole but many believe it was the dead-rail that got him beat when he tired early on from his rail draw in the G1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga where he finished third. He returned to his winning ways over that course when he romped in the G1 Forego some four weeks later.

Imperial Hint hopes the third time is the charm when it comes to the Sprint, having finished second by a length in 2017 after making the lead in the stretch and a third-place finish last year as the 8-5 favorite.

The most accomplished at this distance in the field, Imperial Hint has won the last two runnings of the Vanderbilt and G1 Vosburgh at Belmont, along with three other stakes going three-quarters of a mile for trainer Luis Carvajal, Jr. His versatility should serve him well in here as he will likely have to come from off the pace despite going gate-to-wire in the Vosburgh most recently.

Catalina Cruiser suffered the lone defeat of his eight-race-career at last year?s World Championships, an inexplicable off-the-board performance as the 4-5 favorite in the Dirt Mile. He won all four starts prior and all three since, including the G2 True North against an insider speed bias at Belmont in his seasonal bow back in June and the G2 Pat O?Brien most recently at Del Mar.

Trained by John Sadler, who was on the fence as to where to run Catalina Cruiser since the Dirt Mile is around two turns this time around, he hasn?t raced at this distance since cruising to a pair of victories to start his career.

Rest

Diamond Oops has tried his hand at both turf and dirt and has had success on both surfaces. He comes into this off of a solid runner-up finish going a two-turn mile on the grass in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland where he set the pace before losing by less than a length. Earlier this year, he won the G3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream and finished second in the Vanderbilt.

Engage has won both of his starts, including the G2 Phoenix at Keeneland in the final strides most recently, since being transferred to Asmussen. He?s won five of his eight starts overall at this distance including the G3 Futurity and Gold Fever at Belmont along with a minor stakes at Parx two starts back.

Firenze Fire did all of the dirty work chasing Imperial Hint in the Vosburgh while taking himself away from his best game in the process. A bit more accomplished at a mile, having won the G1 Champagne and G2 Dwyer at that trip, he should be able to return to his off-the-pace style with all of the speed signed on in here.

Hog Creek Hustle is another who appreciates a bit more ground with his best efforts coming when he passed nearly all of his rivals to win the G1 Woody Stephens at seven furlongs on Belmont Stakes day and runner-up finish in the G1 H Allen Jerkens where he missed by just a nose at the Spa two back. He finished fifth in the Phoenix, his first start against older rivals.

Landeskog tired to second after he battles on the lead for most of the way in the G2 Gallant Bob at Parx last out. He?s won two of his five starts overall and is seeking his first stakes score.

Matera Sky ships in from Japan seeking his first win in five tries this year. He?s made just two of his 26 starts outside of Japan, finishing fifth behind Mind Your Biscuits and second behind X Y Jet in the last two runnings of the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan.

The ultra-speedy Shancelot won the first three starts of his career, including the G2 Amsterdam at Saratoga by over a dozen lengths while earning a 121 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest recorded this year. He tired in the final stages when against the bias going seven furlongs in the Jerkens as the 3-10 favorite when third and got nipped on the money by Dirt Mile favorite Omaha Beach in the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship just four weeks ago.

Second in this event last year, Whitmore turned in one of his better performances of the season when he fell a half-length short in the Phoenix. Earlier this year, he took the Hot Springs at Oaklawn before finishing second in the Count Fleet when he sat second the entire way behind Mitole.

If I?m Right?
Mitole is undoubtedly the horse to beat but I don?t think he is unbeatable like some do and I did just four months ago. An inside draw could really hurt his chances so keep an eye on which post he pulls.

Live Longshot
Firenze Fire is going to get a pace to run at and has had enough success at this distance to warrant a second look at 10-1 or so, especially in exotic wagers.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Juvenile Fillies
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YOf
Date: Friday, November 1
Time: 5:32 pm EDT

The History
Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star and Silverbulletday are some of the fantastic young ladies to have captured this event. My Flag splashed home in the mud to win in 1995 before her daughter Storm Flag Flying took the 2002 renewal at Arlington Park. Ria Antonia was put up via DQ in 2013 after She?s a Tiger bumped her in deep stretch. Songbird led them every step of the way in 2015.

Favorites: 18 for 35 (53%)
Shortest: $2.40 (Meadow Star, 1990) *Shortest price in history of the Breeders? Cup*
Highest: $125.40 (Take Charge Brandi, 2014)

Best

Bast gave her backers a big scare last out before eventually putting the G1 Chandelier away in the final stages for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey John Velazquez who set the record for the most graded stakes wins ever by a rider.

Second in her debut, blinkers were added for her second start in the G1 Del Mar Debutante and she managed to turn the tables on the filly that beat her first out.

British Idiom stretched out successfully in the G1 Alcibiades at Keeneland last out with a brilliant move on the far turn that helped turn the opening day feature in Lexington in a six-plus length romp.


Trained by Brad Cox, British Idiom broke her maiden going six furlongs on debut at Saratoga by over three lengths when she stalked the pace in a restricted maiden special weight event for horses that were sold for $45K or less at their most recent auction before hitting the races.

Wicked Whisper will be making her first start around two turns for Steve Asmussen off of a pair of impressive wins to start her career.

After going gate-to-wire in one of the more impressive maiden performances of the meet going six furlongs at Saratoga, Wicked Whisper stretched out to a mile for the G1 Frizette at Belmont. Again, sent directly to the front, she made every pole a winning one to score by almost three lengths in a sub 1:36 mile.

Rest

Comical won the first two starts of her career, her debut at Santa Anita and the G3 Schuylerville on opening day at Saratoga in the mud, before shipping back to SoCal to finish sixth in the G2 Sorrento and third in the Del Mar Debutante. Stretching on in the Chandelier, she gave Bast all she could handle before settling for second.

Donna Veloce romped as the 3-5 favorite by over nine lengths in her debut going 6.5 furlongs in her debut over the course. She?ll have to stretch out an extra quarter-mile for the same connections that saw race favorite Bellafina finish fourth in this event last season.

K P Dreamin broke her maiden in her second start going a flat mile before finishing an even third in the Chandelier. She could use some pace up front.

Lazy Daisy broke her maiden going six furlongs on debut then finished fourth in the Del Mar Debutante before shipping to Churchill to take the G2 Pocahontas at this distance in virtual gate-to-wire fashion.

Perfect Alibi leads all of these contenders with three wins and two seconds from five tries, including wins in both the G2 Adirondack and G1 Spinaway while sprinting at Saratoga this summer. She wasn?t as effective last out when she finished over six lengths behind the winner in the Alcibiades where she finished an even second.

Two Sixty ran a career-best last out when stretching out to this distance in a division of the Florida Stallion Series at Gulfstream. She broke her maiden on debut against open company before a third-place finish and an incident in which she bolted and dropped her rider in a pair of similar stakes at shorter distances.

If I?m Right...
This is a pretty wide-open renewal on paper. You could make a case for half of the field. I think the move is to pitch Bast from your plays because she figures to be over bet and appeared to struggle with the extra distance.

Live Longshot
Two Sixty intrigues me a bit. I know she?s been facing Florida-bred stakes company but she showed dramatic improvement stretching out in her most recent start and should be at least 15-1.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Juvenile
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YO(c&g)
Date: Friday, November 1
Time: 7:03 pm EDT

The History
Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled?s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer?s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006, with Nyquist following in his hoof prints in 2015. Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill. In 2014, the Desormeaux brothers, trainer Keith and jockey Kent, teamed up with longshot Texas Red.

Favorites: 12 for 35 (34%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Chief?s Crown, 1984)
Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)

Best

Eight Rings has had an interesting start to his career, to say the least, for Bob Baffert.

Rumored to be one of his best two-year-olds, Eight Rings lived up to the billing first out when he powered home by over six lengths in a Del Mar sprint at odds of 3-5, an effort that made him an even shorter price (1-2) less than a month later in the G1 Del Mar Futurity.

In a year that?s been wild one in racing, Eight Rings added to the mayhem when he made a left hand turn soon after leaving the gate and dropped his rider while taking out another rival in the process.

No worse for wear, Eight Rings stayed the course and with a brand-new set of blinkers led from start to finish in the G1 American Pharoah to win by six lengths.

Unlike Eight Rings, Dennis? Moment didn?t waste any time pulling his antics when he clipped heels and lost his rider in his debut at Churchill Downs in late June.

One month later, trainer Dale Romans actually left Saratoga for the day to watch Dennis? Moment romp by almost 20 lengths going seven furlongs at Ellis Park in a sparkling 1:21 4/5.

Romans decided to pass the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga to await the G3 Iroquois at back at Churchill. There was seven weeks between the maiden win and the Iroquois and it afforded him the opportunity to get Dennis? Moment around two turns.

The decision paid off as Dennis? Moment sat in mid-pack before making the lead on the far turn, eventually winning by almost two lengths while geared down for the final sixteenth of a mile or so. He comes into this off of a similar seven-week break.

Trainer Brendan Walsh sent Maxfield a mile in his debut at Churchill and despite breaking a bit slowly he managed to pass all of his rivals to get up in the last few jumps.

A bit over three weeks later in the G1 Breeders? Futurity at Keeneland on FallStars Weekend, Maxfield again broke slowly in his two-turn debut then launched a powerful, sustained bid from the half-mile pole through the wire to again pass them all, this time winning by a drawing away, five-plus lengths.

Rest

American Theorem looked good breaking his maiden going 5.5 furlongs at Del Mar on debut this summer but appeared to be overmatched by both Eight Rings and this trip when he was a long way back in second in the American Pharoah.

Anneau d?Or romped by eight lengths in his debut going a mile over the turf at Golden Gate but has plenty of pedigree to suggest he?d handle dirt. He?s cross-entered and has first preference in the Juvenile Turf but he is far down on the alternates list and will likely end up in here.

Full Flat ships in from Japan with a maiden win and a pair of off-the-board finishes on his resume, all on the turf. Another with dirt pedigree, he?s the last Juvenile Turf Sprint alternate, his first preference.

Scabbard broke his maiden at Churchill then finished second after breaking a bit awkwardly in the G2 Saratoga Special when he raced under the name Noose. Last out, he found some trouble halfway through the Iroquois but still made up a ton of ground late to finish second.

Shoplifted closed to win his debut and to get second in the G1 Hopeful, both at Saratoga, before failing to fire on the stretch out in the American Pharoah. Unlike most of his fellow East Coast runners, he?s been out in SoCal for quite some time now.

Storm the Court broke his maiden on debut at Del Mar while stalking the pace at over 12-1 before getting taken out by Eight Rings in the Del Mar Futurity. He was a non-threatening third in the American Pharoah.

Wrecking Crew stretches out for the first time after winning his debut at Del Mar going six furlongs then finishing second in both the G2 Best Pal and Del Mar Futurity. This will be his first start in two months.

If I?m Right?
This has the makings of a memorable Juvenile despite the fact that G1 Champagne winner Tiz the Law isn?t here. I believe the three favorites all have legit shots at being real racehorses.

Live Longshot
Shoplifted is better than his effort in the American Pharoah last out. He gets to go long for the second time and has had an opportunity to acclimate to his surroundings. He should be around 20-1.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Filly & Mare Sprint
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $ 1million
Age: 3up(f&m)
Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: 2:55 pm EDT

The History
Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn?t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.

Favorites: 3 for 12 (25%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $135.40 (Bar of Gold, 2017)

The champ is here? Shamrock Rose is not participating this year.

Best

Covfefe figures to be a slight favorite when she tries to run her record to a perfect three-for-three at this distance when she faces older fillies and mares for just the second time in her career for trainer Brad Cox.

A winner of five of her seven career starts, Covfefe has shown flashes of brilliance on more than one occasion and is less than a length away from being perfect in her five starts this year. A thrilling tally in the G3 Miss Preakness at Pimlico where she set the track record on Black-Eyed Susan day along with a memorable stretch duel with G1 Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress that she won in the G1 Test at Saratoga going this trip, highlight her season.

It is worth noting however that her lone defeat in 2019 came when she tried her hand against older fillies and mares in the Roxelana where she was defeated by fellow G1 winner Mia Mischief.

Come Dancing will look to give her trainer Carlos Martin his first Breeders? Cup victory while seeking her third straight win. It?s taken a while for this mare to overcome some issues but her connections? patience have paid off as she?s won four of five starts in this, her five-year-old season, with her lone defeat coming at the hands of Distaff favorite Midnight Bisou in the G1 Ogden Phipps going 1 1/16 miles on Belmont Stakes day in New York.

Come Dancing has won both her starts at the distance this year, including the G1 Ballerina at Saratoga after she was forced to come from off the pace after encountering some trouble at the start, as well as the G3 Distaff at Aqueduct in her first start of the season at Aqueduct where she earned a 114 Beyer number, the second fastest number earned by any horse this season.

Though her speed figures are considerably lighter than her two main rivals, Spiced Perfection has had a solid season while making just four starts in 2019 since being taken over by Peter Miller. Miller began training the filly after she won the G1 La Brea over the course and at the trip on Opening Dy last year. A second-place finish in the G3 Barbara Fritchie at Laurel where she was compromised by an inside trip was followed by a determined victory in the G1 Madison at Keeneland before she returned there after missing the summer with an impressive score in the G2 TCA by a head after breaking a beat slow.

Rest

Bellafina is perfect in four starts at Santa Anita, including a pair of G1 wins in the Chandelier as a juvenile and Santa Anita Oaks this past spring, both around two turns. She won the G1 Del Mar Debutante in her third career start and the G2 Santa Ynez to kick off this year at this trip. She?ll cut back to a sprint having finished fourth in the G1 Cotillion last out when the blinkers went back on. She?ll have to overcome some recent gate issues as she?s been off slowly in her last two tries in what will be her first start against her elders.

Danuska?s My Girl didn?t break her maiden until her eighth start when she was dropped into a claiming race in July 2018 at Del Mar but has since won five more times, including three G3 events in SoCal. Usually on the front end, she lost all chance when she was bumped at the start of the TCA but did manage to pass a few rivals late.

Dawn the Destroyer stormed home from last in the TCA to miss by just a head after finishing second in the Ballerina. Since minor throat surgery late last year, she?s finished off the board just once in eight start and won a minor stakes at Aqueduct going this distance in January.

Heavenhasmynikki rides a three-race win streak dating back to April into this. A gate-to-wire score in the G3 Vagrancy at Aqueduct back in May is sandwiched between an allowance win at Mahoning Valley and a statebred stakes tally at Thistledown, both in her native Ohio. She?s been off-the-board in her two starts at this distance, including a fifth-place La Brea finish.

Another who has gone from claimer to stakes winner is Lady Ninja. Entered for as little as $25K less than a year ago, she won for $40K in February and four of seven starts overall this season, including a gutsy off-the-pace score in the G3 LA Woman most recently going a sixteenth of a mile shorter.

Selcourt was the one Lady Ninja ran down last out, the third time she?s finished second in four starts this year, all over the strip. Sent off as one of the choices at under 6-1 in the event last year, Selcourt is looking for her first win since wiring the field in the G2 Santa Monica at this trip and over the course back in March 2018.

If I?m Right?
Quite a few of these fillies and mares will be looking for the lead early on. Going seven furlongs, as far as the favorites go, the advantage goes to Come Dancing as she has shown an ability to win a variety of ways.

Live Longshot
I?ve always felt that Dawn the Destroyer had a big win in her. Maybe this is the one. She should get a solid pace to run at and be in the 12-1 range.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Distaff
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up(f&m)
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 7:00 pm EDT

The History
In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders? Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs. Bayakoa won back to back runnings the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13 ? lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders? Cup history. Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008.

Royal Delta won her second consecutive running in 2012 before failing in her attempt to three-peat in 2013 when 2012 Juvenile Fillies champ Beholder became the first winner of a juvenile event to win another Breeders? Cup race. Rosie Napravnik announced her retirement after guiding the three-year-old Untapable to a popular score in 2014. In 2016, Beholder beat the undefeated Songbird by a nostril in the ?mother of all Distaffs,? joining Goldikova as the only other horse to win tree Breeders? Cup races.

Favorites: 15 for 35 (43%)
Shortest: $2.80 (Life?s Magic Entry, 1985)
Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)

The champ is here? No. Monomoy Girl is still in training but was unable to defend her crown this year.

Best

Midnight Bisou puts her perfect season on the line when she looks to improve on her third-place finish in this event last year while returning to the place where she started her career.

Trained now by Steve Asmussen, Midnight Bisou started her career with California trainer Bill Spawr and accomplished plenty, winning three of her six starts, including the G1 Santa Anita Oaks, before being transferred to her new barn due to the lack of races for sophomore fillies on the west coast.

A picture of consistency wherever she goes, Midnight Bisou has turned into one of the more accomplished fillies of the decade with wins in five different G1 races over the past two years.

Just this season alone, she?s won all seven starts at five different tracks, including three G1 events ? the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn, Phipps at Belmont and Personal Ensign at Saratoga ? with the last coming against Elate who figures to take plenty of action in the Classic.

Midnight Bisou has never been off the board in 18 starts and has won two of five with a second and two thirds at this nine-furlong distance though it is arguably not her best.

Rest

Blue Prize won the G1 Spinster at Keeneland for the second year in a row, passing all four of her rivals to win by a half-length. Fourth in this last year, she?s won half of her 12 starts at this trip but will need to improve off of her career best effort last out.

Dunbar Road has won four of her six starts, including the G2 Mother Goose at Belmont and G1 Alabama at Saratoga going 10 furlongs, as she makes just her second start against older fillies and mares. She was stuck on a dead rail in the Spinster and forced to lay closer to the pace than usual while on her way to a third-place finish.

La Force took the G2 Santa Maria with a last-to-first run back in June over this course, the lone stakes win of her career and only win from five starts this year. She?ll need to find her form from earlier this year to compete as she comes into this off of off-the-board performances in the G2 Mabee and G1 Zenyatta.

Mo See Cal will be making her graded stakes debut coming off a secondary allowance/optional claiming win when blinkers were removed.

Ollie?s Candy won the first two dirt starts of her career, the G2 Summertime Oaks last year over this strip and the G1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar two back before a third-place finish in the Zenyatta. She?ll be making her first start at nine furlongs on dirt though she did just miss at the distance on turf last year in the G1 Del Mar Oaks.

Paradise Woods won the Zenyatta from just off the pace last out. She won the Santa Anita Oaks and Zenyatta back in 2017 when she finished third in this event and the G2 Santa Maria earlier this year by over 10 lengths.

Secret Spice has finished second in her last three starts - the G1 La Troienne at Churchill on Kentucky Oaks Day, Hirsch and Zenyatta ? after nailing down her lone stakes win in the G1 Beholder Mile back in March, her only win in five tries this year.

Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress is a need the lead type who loses all chance when not in front. When she does get to the lead, she?s dangerous, as evident by her Oaks score, second place finish to the flashy Guarana in the G1 Acorn and tough-beat second in the G1 Test to F&M Sprint favorite Covfefe. Last out, she was wrestled off the pace and finished nowhere in the G1 Cotillion at Parx.

Street Band won for the fourth time in seven starts when running down Guarana in the Cotillion last out when she got a perfect pace set-up. She won the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks and G3 Indiana Oaks earlier this year and was third in the Alabama as well.

Wow Cat finished second in this last year but is winless in three starts since. She was no match for the favorite when fourth in the Personal Ensign and second in the Beldame. She has hit the board in six of her seven starts at this trip.

If I?m Right?
I think we?ve seen the best we?re going to get from Midnight Bisou, who?ll likely be the shortest-priced favorite of the weekend. I don?t think that can be said about Dunbar Road. I?m looking forward to the day we do. Maybe this is that day.

Live Longshot
Wow Cat rarely grabs the brass ring but she always seems to grab a piece. I would have to think some of the speedier fillies will get some play and that she?ll be sent off at double digit odds.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Dirt Mile
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 mile
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 4:10 pm EDT

The History
Run around two turns at 1 mile and 70 yards in 2007 then on synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009. Finally run at intended distance on dirt for first time in 2010. Goldencents became the first back-to-back winner of the event with a pair of gate-to-wire scorchers in 2013 & 2014 while Liam?s Map powered away to win after a tough trip in 2015.

Favorites: 2 for 12 (17%)
Shortest: $3.00 (Liam?s Map, 2015)
Highest: $77.40 (Dakota Phone, 2010)

The champ is here? No. City of Light retired after winning the Pegasus World Cup earlier this year.

Best

Omaha Beach, after originally being pointed to the Sprint, lands in this event and should be an overwhelming favorite when he goes to the post against this bunch.

After starting his career with three turf starts as a juvenile, Omaha Beach finished second in his dirt debut in early January before rattling off three straight wins, including a division of the G2 Rebel by a nose over two-year-old champ Game Winner and a virtual gate-to-wire score in G1 Arkansas Derby for trainer Richard Mandella, an effort that established him as the favorite for the G1 Kentucky Derby, a raced he was forced to miss due to an entrapped epiglottis.

Omaha Beach, now playing catch-up as far as the Breeders? Cup and year-end honors are concerned, returned in the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship off of a near six-month layoff. After bobbling a bit at the break, he was able to make a move along the inside to nip fellow sophomore, the speedy Shancelot, in the final strides.

With a couple of other races in mind before retirement, it was decided that this spot, not the Sprint or Classic, would best serve Omaha Beach going forward.

Improbable will be making his third start since failing as the 5-2 favorite on the G1 Preakness while seeking just his second win in his seventh start of the season for trainer Bob Baffert.

Undefeated in three starts at two, including the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, Improbable lost his division of the Rebel by a neck as the 2-5 chalk before chasing Omaha Beach around there for the second half of the Arkansas Derby.

Elevated to fourth in the Kentucky Derby before his Preakness flop, Improbable returned with his best effort to date, easily taking the Shared Belief at Del Mar going this two-turn mile before a poor start and dreaded inside trip at Parx cost him dearly as the 6-5 favorite in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby where he finished fourth.

Mr. Money has made plenty of cash this year by running in the easier, more lucrative races that are restricted to three-year-olds. Now, he has to step up his game again after just missing by a neck when he set a moderate pace in the Pennsylvania Derby last out.

Trained by Bret Calhoun, Mr. Money has earned over $1 million this season by way of wins in the G3 Pat Day Mile and G3 Matt Winn at Churchill along with the G3 Indiana Derby and G3 West Virginia Derby by sitting just off the pace. This will be his first start against older rivals

Rest

Ambassadorial ships over the pond to make his first start on, presumably, a fast track, having finished third two back in the G1 Korea Cup in the mud in Seoul. By Elusive Quality, he has hit the board in all seven of his starts over synthetic surfaces, with three wins. Looks to have an off-the-pace running style.

Blue Chipper comes over from Korea with a six-race win streak and having won seven of his eight starts overall. He?s undefeated in three starts on a fast track and won a pair of G1 events back home, including one at this distance, two starts back. It appears he?s been forwardly placed in a majority of his starts in the early going.
Coal Front re-rallied to win the Parx Dirt Mile on Pennsylvania Derby Day and is two for three overall at a mile, counting the G2 Godolphin Mile on the Dubai World Cup undercard as his other victory. Earlier this season, he won the G3 Razorback at Oaklawn and tired after setting the pace in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont.

Fifth in this heat last year, Giant Expectations will be looking for his first win in nine tries since his last victory, a gate-to-wire score over last year?s Classic winner Accelerate in the G2 San Antonio back in December 2017. Since the addition of blinkers for the first time in three years, he finished second against fellow New York-breds in the Commentator by a nose before getting outgamed by Catalina Cruiser in the G2 Pat O?Brien in his last start 10 weeks ago.

Snapper Sinclair, a two-time turf stakes winner, will be looking for his first win in a dirt stakes and first against graded company when he returns to the main track having passed nearly all of his rivals to capture the Tourist Mile over the Kentucky Downs grass last out.

Spun to Run blitzed a minor stakes at Parx going this two-turn mile trip in his first try against older horses after finishing fifth while beaten less than two lengths in the Pennsylvania Derby. Earlier this year, he was third in the G1 Haskell behind Maximum Security before gutting out a win in the G3 Smarty Jones at Parx.

If I?m Right...
Omaha Beach would not have to be at his best to beat this bunch and while I?ve always felt he may not be a classic distance this trip should be right in his wheelhouse.

Live Longshot
Giant Expectations is a bit enigmatic, to say the least, but if he fires his best shot, he?ll be right there.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC - Classic
October 28, 2019
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 ? miles
Purse: $6 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 1
Time: 8:44 pm EDT

The History

You knew this race was aptly named after the stretch run of the inaugural running when eventual winner Wild Again played bumper cars along with Slew o? Gold and Gate Dancer. Ferdinand won the battle of the Kentucky Derby winners over Alysheba in 1987 before Alysheba claimed his own classic victory the following year.

In the final chapter of their brief, yet intense rivalry, Sunday Silence held off the desperate surge of Easy Goer to win in 1989. Jerry Bailey won three in a row, starting in 1993 with Arcangues, the longest priced winner in Breeders? Cup history and ending with the great Cigar in 1995 who capped a perfect 10-for-10 season with a fantastic score. Awesome Again split rivals in deep stretch to win a wild one in 1998 over Silver Charm and Swain.

Tiznow gutted out two of the greatest wins over a pair of tough Europeans, Giant?s Causeway and Sakhee, in 2000 and 2001 respectively, making his trainer Jay Robbins and the great Charlie Whittingham the only two-time winners of the race.

Volponi blew up the tote board, then the Pick 6 scandal, in 2002 with his win at 43-1. Ghostzapper set the stakes record with a gate-to-wire, tour de force victory in 2004. Curlin capped his Horse of the Year campaign in 2007 with a win before finishing fourth the following year on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.

The great Zenyatta kept the undefeated dream alive with a remarkable last-to-first run in 2009 before falling a head short of Blame in the 2010 renewal and finishing her career with 19 wins from 20 starts. In 2014, Bayern made a left turn coming out of the gate before going gate-to-wire, holding off Toast of New York and California Chrome in another whale of a photo.

In 2015, American Pharoah capped off a historic, legendary season by winning the Triple Crown in the spring and Classic in the fall with a brilliant, gate-to-wire score. Arrogate gave his trainer Bob Baffert a record three in a row when he ran past California Chrome in the final strides.

It?s the Classic indeed!!!!

Favorites: 10 for 35 (29%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Cigar, 1995 & American Pharoah, 2015)
Highest: $269.20 (Arcangues, 1993) *Highest price in history of the Breeders? Cup*

The champ is here? No. Accelerate has been retired.

Best

McKinzie will look to rebound from a colossal upset in the G1 Awesome Again where he finished second as the 3-10 favorite when he tries this event for the second year as the likely favorite having finished up the track in 2018 for trainer Bob Baffert.

McKinzie has won just two of his six starts this year, the G2 Alysheba at Churchill on Oaks Day and the G1 Whitney, a career-bet performance, two starts back in early August, at Saratoga.

But this season has been more about the races McKinzie has lost as opposed to the ones he?s won. He was second with no excuse as the 1-2 chalk in the G2 San Pasqual, lost a stretch duel to Gift Box at this distance in the G! Santa Anita Handicap and just missed after being shuffled back early in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont.

Baffert has opted for a rider change, taking Mike Smith off and replacing him for the Classic with Joel Rosario.

Code of Honor and Vino Rosso will renew their rivalry after coming to blows in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont last out when Vino Rosso finished ahead of Code of Honor by a nose but was disqualified for impeding his rival several times in the stretch.

Before their meeting last out, Vino Rosso, uncharacteristically on the lead last out, won the Stymie at Aqueduct to start the year and survived a long battle with Gift Box in the G! Gold Cup at Santa Anita at this trip in May before a third-place finish in the Whitney for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Code of Honor has the distinction of being involved in the two most famous DQs of the season as he was elevated to second after making what appeared to be a ground-saving, winning move in the Derby and to victory in the JCGC last out.

Trained by Shug McGaughey, three-year-old honors and perhaps more could be in the offing with a Classic win. His spectacular late run to take the G1 Travers two starts back would make this his third straight win at the classic distance of 10 furlongs.

That distance is what has enticed trainer Bill Mott to run the five-year-old mare Elate in the Classic against the boys for the first and only time in her career in what will be her swan song as opposed to facing fellow ladies in the Distaff going nine furlongs.

Perfect in three starts at this distance having won the G1 Alabama at three and the last two runnings of the G2 Delaware Handicap, Elate comes in to this off of a pair of runner-up finishes behind Distaff favorite Midnight Bisou when she was cut down in the final stages of the G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga and last out when she raced wide before being run down in the G1 Spinster at Keeneland by defending champion Blue Prize.

Rest

Higher Power ran the race of his life to starts back when he sat just off the pace before pouncing and drawing away to win the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar by over five lengths going this distance. Earlier this year he finished off the board in the Gold Cup at SA and just last out finished third after a stumble at the start in the Awesome Again.

Math Wizard has been claimed three times in his career, last time back in late January at Gulfstream by Saffie Joseph for $25K. Winless in six starts for his new barn going into his last start, he made that run in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby count when he overcame a slow pace to win by a neck at 31-1.

You could have claimed Mongolian Groom for $30K in the first two starts of his career back in the spring of 2018 but no one did and he too is now a G1 winner having gone gate-to-wire in the Awesome Again last out at 25-1. Earlier this season he finished third in both the Big Cap and Pacific Classic and second in the G2 San Diego.

Owendale has earned close to $1 million dollars this year, winning four of his seven starts against easier sophomores and will be making his first start against older horses. He counts the Lexington, Ohio Derby and his most recent score in the Oklahoma Derby, all G3 events, among his wins and was third in the G1 Preakness despite a wide trip.

Seeking the Soul does his best work in Kentucky and has failed in both of his starts on the left coast this season, with off the board finishes in both the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again. He took down the G2 Stephen Foster at Churchill back in June and was second at over 34-1 in the G1 Pegasus World Cup to kick off the season.

2019 has been a mixed bag for Preakness winner War of Will. Wins in the G3 LeComte and G2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds to start the year had him marked as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites but then he raced poorly in the G2 Louisiana Derby. After almost getting dropped by Maximum Security in the Derby, he sat a dream trip in the Preakness to win by just over a length but has done little in three starts since with his third-place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby his best effort in the second half of the year.

Yoshida has won just once in six starts on dirt, the 2018 G1 Woodward but did manage to finish fourth in this event last year, second in the Whitney this year and third in the Woodward last out. Mike Smith will ride for the first time.

If I?m Right?
I don?t think McKinzie wants any part of this distance and is as dressed up a favorite as we are going to see over the course of the 14-race event.

Live Longshot
Yoshida has shown up in almost of all of his dirt starts and should appreciate the added distance along with the presence of Smith. Plus, he should be 12-1.