superbowl play & info....

[AR182]

i am on a 5 game winning streak in superbowl plays....& have played the under in the last 4.....& took ne & over in a 7 point tease when they played the panthers....in this game i already took the under 47 & bought a point to make it under 48(130)....will have a writeup on it as soon as i can....

i also will add some info when i come across it...


Super Bowl Betting: Props & Totals

01/19/2009 09:48 AM

By: Jim Feist
The combatants are decided after the Steelers and Cardinals narrowed the Super Bowl field to two on Sunday. Now's the time to start looking at and thinking about SB prop bets!

In the world of eleven to ten, there's nothing quite like Super Bowl week. In this case, it's two weeks, as the champions of the AFC and NFC have two weeks to prepare for the Big Game. It's also one of the most creative weeks of the sports betting season. While there's only one game left on the football calendar, there are ample opportunities for betting with hundreds of creative props by oddsmakers.
Super Bowl Betting: Props & Totals

For example, you can bet on the exact score of the game by each team, or who will score first. Two years ago, if you bet on Chicago return specialist Devin Hester to score the first touchdown of the game, you would have cashed a 25-to-1 prop ticket after he returned the opening kickoff 92 yards. Just 14 seconds into a game and cashing a 25-to-1 ticket is the best way to watch a Super Bowl!

Last year you could even wager that there would be no touchdowns scored at 50-to-1. Of course, that has never happened as we head to Super Bowl 43 next week. There also has never been overtime, though you will be able to wager on, "Will there be overtime or not?" There will be Over/Under lines offered on how many touchdown passes a quarterback might throw, the first team to turn the ball over, and even the coin flip. There will be creative wagers offered such as how many receiving yards one player might get matched up against the number of points the NBA's Kobe Bryant or LeBron James might have as the Lakers/Cavaliers battle before the Super Sunday kickoff.

The Super Bowl brings out the best in the creative minds of oddsmakers. Smart bettors will search through all the props, totals and side bets offered in an attempt to find an edge and add to their bankrolls. When examining Super Bowl totals, weather is not as important an issue as in other January playoff games as Super Sunday is always played indoors or at warm weather sites. This season the game will be outdoors in Tampa, Florida, so there could be a chance of rain, like two years ago in Miami when the Colts and Bears met. Since Super Bowl X in 1976 between the Steelers and Cowboys, there have been 19 Overs and 14 Unders, with the last four going under.

Why so many Overs? One factor is that coaches with a lead are less likely to sit on the ball in the second half in a Super Bowl. If a team is up 17-0 at the half of a December game, for example, a coach might be inclined to go conservative, run the clock and avoid injuries. In the postseason, it's the final game of the year and no lead is safe. No coach wants to play super-conservative and be remembered as the guy who blew a 20-0 lead in the biggest game of his career. Since it's the last game of the season, coaches often put in trick plays and new offensive wrinkles in an attempt to maximize scoring opportunities.

Despite the excess of Overs the last 30 years, as far as reaching the big game you can't overlook the importance of defense. Heading into the conference championship games, the Steelers, Ravens and Eagles were 1, 2 and 3 in the NFL in total defense (Arizona was 19th). A year ago, the Patriots, Giants and Packers were in the Top 11 in total defense.

Last season the big story was the unbeaten record of the Patriots and their record-setting offense, but who came out ahead? The monster defense of the Giants kept the game close and was the main reason for their 17-14 upset. Who can forget six years ago when the No. 1 offense (Oakland) faced the No. 1 defense (Tampa Bay)? Oakland's great offense was a 4-point favorite, but Tampa's defense dominated in a 48-21 rout. In fact, six of the last eight Super Bowl champs have had statistically better defenses than their offenses, including the 2005 Steelers (4th in defense). Three of those champs, the 2002 Patriots, the '03 Buccaneers and the '08 Giants, were Super Bowl underdogs.

You'll be able to find creative point spread props, too. Two years ago, the total number of field goals was 3? over +135. The Colts and Bears combined for 4 field goals as the over just made it. Three years ago Seattle RB Shaun Alexander had these over/under props: Total yards 89?, carries 21?, and longest rush 19?. The final tallies: 95 yards, 20 carries, with the longest rush of 21 yards. Four years ago the number of passing yards by QB Tom Brady: 237?. The Under ended up being the winner, but not by much: Brady finished with 236 passing yards! Let's give oddsmakers some credit for those numbers.

Key numbers will come into play, as well, as books are petrified of getting middled. Nine years ago the Rams were a 7 to 7?-point favorite against the Titans. The Rams won by seven points, 23-16. The most famous example was in 1979, forever known in Las Vegas as "Black Sunday." The Steelers opened a 2?-point favorite over the Cowboys, were bet up to 5, then back down to 4. Books everywhere were sick when the Steelers won, 35-31, landing on the dreaded 'M' word!

Super Bowl (Total, Over/Under)

* 42 Giants 17, Patriots 14 (52, Under)
* 41 Colts 29, Bears 17 (49, Under)
* 40 Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 (48, Under)
* 39 Patriots 24, Eagles 21 (47, Under)
* 38 Patriots 32, Panthers 29 (38, Over)
* 37 Bucs 48, Raiders 21 (43, Over)
* 36 Patriots 20, Rams 17 (53, Under)
* 35 Ravens 34, Giants 7 (33, Over)
* 34 Rams 23, Titans 16 (48, Under)
* 33 Broncos 34, Falcons 19 (51, Over)
* 32 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (49, Over)
* 31 Packers 35, Patriots 21 (52, Over)
* 30 Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 (52, Under)
* 29 49ers 49, Chargers 26 (53, Over)
* 28 Cowboys 30, Bills 13 (50, Under)
* 27 Cowboys 52, Bills 17 (44, Over)
* 26 Redskins 37, Bills 24 (49, Over)
* 25 Giants 20, Bills 19 (40, Under)
* 24 49ers 55, Broncos 10 (48, Over)
* 23 49ers 20, Bengals 16 (48, Under)
* 22 Redskins 42, Broncos 10 (47, Over)
* 21 Giants 39, Broncos 20 (40, Over)
* 20 Bears 46, Patriots 10 (37, Over)
* 19 49ers 39, Dolphins 16 (53, Over)
* 18 Raiders 38, Redskins 9 (48, Under)
* 17 Redskins 27, Dolphins 17 (36, Over)
* 16 49ers 26, Bengals 21 (48, Under)
* 15 Raiders 27, Eagles 10 (37, Under)
* 14 Steelers 31, Rams 19 (36, Over)
* 13 Steelers 35, Cowboys 31 (37, Over)
* 12 Cowboys 27, Broncos 10 (39, Under)
* 11 Raiders 32, Vikings 14 (38, Over)
* 10 Steelers 21, Cowboys 17 (36, Over)
* 9 Steelers 16, Vikings 6 (33, Under)
* 8 Dolphins 24, Vikings 7 (33, Under)
* 7 Dolphins 14, Redskins 7 (33, Under)
* 6 Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3 (34, Under)
* 5 Colts 16, Cowboys 13 (36, Under)
* 4 Chiefs 23, Vikings 7 (39, Under)
* 3 Jets 16, Colts 7 (40, Under)
* 2 Packers 33, Raiders 14 (40, Over)
* 1 Packers 35, Chiefs 13 (NL, NL)


good luck

 

[AR182]

the following is phil steele's system that predicts the superbowl winner...it is pretty similar to the system that hank stram used to use....just a fyi...it does not predict the score & as far as i know it just predicts who will win su....also please check for accuracy...


10 pts to a team that has won the super bowl in the last 3 yrs.....(pitt-10)

8 pts to team if opponent is making first super bowl appearance...(pitt-8)

8 pts to team that allowed fewer rushes....(pitt-8)

7 pts to team with best overall record.....(pitt-7)

7 pts to team with most offensive rushes....(pitt-7)

5 pts to team with lower defensive rush yds per carry.....(pitt-5)

4 pts to team with best net kick/punt return tds....(az-4)

4 pts to team with best ats record....(az-4)

4 pts to team with best net penalty yds.....(pitt-4)

3.5 pts to team with best pass yds per attempt...(az-3.5)

3.5 pts to team that allowed fewest points...(pitt-3.5)

3.5 pts to team that allowed fewest rushing tds....(pitt-3.5)

3 pts to team with most sacks...(pitt-3)

2.5 pts to team with fewest pass attempts....(pitt-2.5)

2 pts to team with best net total punts....(az-2)

1.5 pts to team with best offensive rush yds per carry....(pitt-1.5)

1 pt to team with best completion %...(az-1)

i get....63 points for pitt & 14.5 points for az....



good luck

 

[AR182]

here's my superbowl play....

under 48(130) pitt / arizona.....

my random thoughts on the under....

i don't think that pitt wants to get into a game where they match scores with the cards....imo they will try to do to the cards what the giants did to the pats last year.....play keep away...and eventhough az.stopped the falcons running game in the playoffs (they were at home & playing against a rookie head coach & qb) & carolina's running game (panthers took the cards lightly), i'm not convinced that they will be able to stop pitt's running attack....& if they do, i hope pitt will be smart enough to not abandon it during the game....for the year, the cards defense allowed about 4 ypc....

i think pitt's mo for the superbowl will be running the ball mixed in with short passes, trying not to give arizona any gifts via turnovers, & play field position....with the kind of defense that pitt has, i think they will want to have arizona earn everthing they get.....i also think they will try to press Fitzgerald at the line with a corner & have a safety over the top....& also try not to let warner get comfortable in the pocket....

the az offense played 12 games vs teams that possessed a defense not in the top 10.....they averaged 31.3 points per game & warner had a qb rating of 107.....on the other hand, not counting last week's game vs. phil, when the az offense played against top 10 defenses they averaged 19.5 points per game which is below the nfl average......& warner's qb rating was 75.45.....last week against the eagles, the philly defense for some reason did not play aggressively in the 1st half... but turned it on in the 2nd half & held az. to 1 score..in addition 1 of the cards scores was on a trick play where the db fell down...also arizona averaged about 6 ppg less on the road than they did at home....the pitt defense faced 6 teams this year (sd twice) that finished in the top 10 in the nfl in terms of passing yards per game & held 4 of those 6 opponents to 17 points or less with an overall average of 17.2 points allowed....on the road this year the pitt defense allowed an average of 13.5 ppg....

i don't know if the arizona defense is as good as they showed in the playoffs....because on the road this year, the az defense allowed an average of 29 ppg, but in the playoffs they have allowed an average of 20 ppg......on the other side of the ball, the pitt. offense was ordinary this year & on the road they averaged about 20 ppg & about 312 total yards....


since i had a very good year in college, i am playing this under as a 10*......but if anybody tails me, please play what you feel comfortable betting.....


good luck

 

[baby johnson]

ar, do u see any value playing pitt-1 and under 53 or 54

thanks

 

[AR182]

ar, do u see any value playing pitt-1 and under 53 or 54

thanks

hey ahjoah...

i never win teaser bets & i don't like to get involved in other people's bets...but if you follow steele's system then pitt should at least win su & i think the score will be lower than what most people think....


good luck with whatever you decide..

 

[Kazaam]

Ar, how accurate is phil steele's system(% wise)? Any way to use it to calculate an approx. score?
Thanks!!!:shrug:

 

[AR182]

Ar, how accurate is phil steele's system(% wise)? Any way to use it to calculate an approx. score?
Thanks!!!:shrug:

kazaam......

i don't know what steele's won/lost record is....& it doesn't calculate the score.....i always thought that it picks the su winner....but somebody at another forum told me it predicts the winner ats.....so i don't know which is true....if i find out anything about the system i'll post it here...

 

[TonyTT]

Guys,

This from another site regarding the system...


Jan 21 2009
Football Betting - Super Bowl Betting System
Many people have at least heard of the Super Bowl Betting System and its ability to pick the winner of the game. It has been around for a number of years, or at least some variation of it, and there are those who will swear by it, including at least one sports service who charges for the selection.

The system started off going 32-3-2 against the point spread, but hasn't fared as well in the past couple of years and is now (I believe) 33-8-2 versus the point spread.


The person most often credited with developing the system was former NFL coach Hank Stram.



Super Bowl Betting System
Note: Stats used are for regular season games only.

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years.
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history.
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes.
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs.
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes.
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry.
7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread.
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards.
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt.
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points.
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns.
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks.
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts.
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush.
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.


That's all there is to it. Naturally, the system tends to pick the favorite, as it did with New England, which was a loss, in the 2008 Super Bowl.


For the 2009 Super Bowl, the system selection is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

One More Super Bowl System
One more Super Bowl system, and one that is much easier to use, has a record of 26-15-2 since the inception of the big game and just involves three steps:

1. Go against any team that did not cover the point spread in their championship game.
2. If both teams covered the spread in the championship games, bet on the team with the highest number of straight up wins entering the Super Bowl.
3. If both teams have the same number of wins, bet on the underdog.


Last year, the system correctly picked the Giants to cover the point spread, as New England did not cover the number in its AFC Championship Game victory over San Diego.


This year the system also picks the Pittsburgh Steelers on the basis of No. 2, as Pittsburgh won 12 games compared to nine for the Cardinals.


There you have two Super Bowl systems that have been around for a number of years and have withstood the test of time.


But when it comes to sports gambling, it's always important to remember what has happened in the past does not always translate into what happens in the future.

 

[Kazaam]

Thanks TonyTT!!

 

[Tdog72]

Systems Smishtems........Arizona ML small play.....
UNDER LARGE PLAY
GL TO ALL

 

[Kazaam]

Systems Smishtems........Arizona ML small play.....
UNDER LARGE PLAY
GL TO ALL

According to these systems I would not waist my money on the Arizona money line.(Just Me!!!):shrug:

 

[CartersCubs]

the following is phil steele's system that predicts the superbowl winner...it is pretty similar to the system that hank stram used to use....just a fyi...it does not predict the score & as far as i know it just predicts who will win su....also please check for accuracy...


10 pts to a team that has won the super bowl in the last 3 yrs.....(pitt-10)

8 pts to team if opponent is making first super bowl appearance...(pitt-8)

8 pts to team that allowed fewer rushes....(pitt-8)

7 pts to team with best overall record.....(pitt-7)

7 pts to team with most offensive rushes....(pitt-7)

5 pts to team with lower defensive rush yds per carry.....(pitt-5)

4 pts to team with best net kick/punt return tds....(az-4)

4 pts to team with best ats record....(az-4)

4 pts to team with best net penalty yds.....(pitt-4)

3.5 pts to team with best pass yds per attempt...(az-3.5)

3.5 pts to team that allowed fewest points...(pitt-3.5)

3.5 pts to team that allowed fewest rushing tds....(pitt-3.5)

3 pts to team with most sacks...(pitt-3)

2.5 pts to team with fewest pass attempts....(pitt-2.5)

2 pts to team with best net total punts....(az-2)

1.5 pts to team with best offensive rush yds per carry....(pitt-1.5)

1 pt to team with best completion %...(az-1)

i get....63 points for pitt & 14.5 points for az....



good luck

ya rushing and defense dominates this system. and is this system used with playoff stats or reg. season?

 

[badjab]

Is there a system that reflects when one team has personnel who coached on the other team? For me, this is the biggest factor in wanting to pull the trigger on Arizona. I know that Wisenhunt beat his Steelers last year with an inferior team...and remember what Gruden (one year removed as head coach) did to the Raiders in the superbowl.

:00x32

 

[MrChristo]

my random thoughts on the under....

This is nothing more than Devil's Advocate stuff ahead (I've yet to make a play), so I trust you won't take it any way other than I intended. :toast:

Basically, I was leaning to the over...the one major thing holding me back is the 17-24 game @ Washington.
The 'Skins and Steelers are (statistically at least) very similar teams...

...but 1) It was all the way back in week 3;
2) It was a 1pm Eastern game;
3) Washington had a TD nullified and missed a FG.

I think Pittsburgh will put up a decent score.
I was a bit surprised when I looked, but they have played 11 games v. top 12 D's on the season! Still av'd over 22 ppg, and against 'lesser' teams, scored;
38 v. Houston (22nd) [over 400 yards]
10 @ Cleveland (26th), but in howling wind and driving rain.
31 v. Cleveland 2nd time around [over 350 not particularly trying]
26 @ Jax (17th) [over 400 yards & with no Parker]
11 v. SD (25th), but again in cold, snowy, windy conditions...still racked up over 400.

Arizona are 19th overall for yards allowed, 28th for points allowed and give up 29 ppg on the road!
I have to think the Steelers will hit a minimum of 27. :shrug:

on the other hand, not counting last week's game vs. phil, when the az offense played against top 10 defenses they averaged 19.5 points per game

Very good point...20 @ Phil, 17 @ Wash, 14 v. Minni...although, to be fair, I don't think we can count the 7 @ NE in the driving snow when they had nothing to play for and no desire to even be there! (29 at home v. YG)
...the interesting thing to me is that 4 of those 5 games went over! (Av. 55.6 ppg!!)

[The other interesting thing I've just noticed is that they lost all 5 ats. :SIB ]

Pittsburgh have played just 3 teams in the top 10 for total offense, but held them all. Houston 17, NYG 21 (with a safety), NE to 10, on a cold rainy day.

I think it's just about the perfect line...I'm sure a 27-20 game wouldn't surprise too many people at all!...

...but like I said, I think the Steelers will get theirs, so atm I'm tossing up between the fav or the over.

EDIT: More-so the fav now I think!

on the other side of the ball, the pitt. offense was ordinary this year & on the road they averaged about 20 ppg & about 312 total yards.

True, but they played 5 of 7 road games against the best 8 teams in scoring allowed! :scared
Ten 2, Balt 3, NE 8, Phil 4, Wash 6...Zona 28th!

Steelers score, Zona probably don't.
(Hopefully not enough for us both :toast: )

 

[djv]

As always AR good info. GL

 

[AR182]

i got the following from another forum & thought that some might find this info useful....

The NFL has named its Super Bowl officiating crew, according to an officiating source familiar with the selection process. No one is authorized to talk about the names before the league announces them next week.

The referee for the Super Bowl crew will be Terry McAulay, who, in a season marked by controversial calls, has been freshly touched by criticism too.

McAulay, who refereed Super Bowl XXXIX between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles in 2005, worked last week's AFC divisional playoff game won by the Baltimore Ravens over the top-seeded Tennessee Titans -- an outcome decided by Baltimore's 43-yard field goal in the final minute.

That kick was preceded moments earlier by a third-and-two play in which McAulay's back judge failed to throw a delay-of-game penalty flag on the Ravens when television coverage showed the play clock had expired by about two seconds before Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco took the snap from center.

Flacco launched a 23-yard completion to tight end Todd Heap on the play, moving the Ravens to the Titans' 45-yard line and setting up the winning kick in a 13-10 outcome.


McAulay told reporters afterward that his back judge, Robert Lawing, "has the clock. When it hits zero [on the clock], which is high here [in Tennessee], he goes to the ball. So there is going to be a natural delay from zero to getting to the ball. And when he gets to the ball, if it is being snapped, we don't call it. So there can be a natural delay."

Tennessee Coach Jeff Fisher, co-chair of the league's competition committee that's charged with maintaining the league's integrity, later called the mistake "costly" and "unacceptable."

An NFL spokesman declined to confirm the Super Bowl crew's identity, and declined to make Mike Pereira, the league's vice president of officiating, available for comment.

The league plans to officially announce the crew next week, after this weekend's AFC and NFC championship games.

The crew, selected on the strength of high grades done by supervisors during the season, is one of the least experienced to be trusted with the Super Bowl, the officiating source said. No one other than McAulay has more than 10 years' experience in the league. McAulay is in his 11th season.

Umpire Roy Ellison and head linesman Derick Bowers joined the league in 2003, and have the minimum six years of experience necessary to be eligible for Super Bowl crew consideration, the source said.

Line judge Mark Perlman and back judge Keith Ferguson have worked in the league since 2000, and side judge Michael Banks and field judge Greg Gautreaux have officiated since 2002. Banks works on McAulay's regular-season crew.

McAulay beat out conference championship referees Walt Anderson (NFC) and Bill Carrollo (AFC) for the honor. He has worked four conference title games since 2001. He refereed a memorable 2001 game in Cleveland, when members of the "Dawg Pound" and other Cleveland fans showered the field with plastic beer bottles after a replay overturned a critical, late Cleveland pass completion.

Nothing that violent has happened this season, but the year has been stained by wrong or questionable calls.

In Week 2, referee Ed Hochuli blew a last-minute play dead as Denver quarterback Jay Cutler fumbled while pulling his arm back to pass, and the Chargers recovered in an apparently decisive play. With new life given by the Hochuli whistle, Denver scored the go-ahead touchdown and two-point conversion. No one from Hochuli's crew pulled Super Bowl duty.

In November, New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning had an important first-down completion against the Philadelphia Eagles reversed in his favor by replay after NBC footage originally made it appear Manning was beyond the line of scrimmage when he released the ball. Also that month, gamblers were outraged after officials mistakenly failed to award the Pittsburgh Steelers a last-second touchdown against the Chargers.

Last month, the Steelers wrapped up the AFC North division when a replay awarded Pittsburgh receiver Santonio Holmes a touchdown reception against Baltimore on a late fourth-quarter pass that was ruled short of the goal line on the field.


The under is 9-6-1 this year when he refs the games.........also something of note is the underdog is 10-6 in the games he has been a part of. When the line was -6.5 or -7, the underdogs were 5-3 this year.

He has reffed one Superbowl and that was Superbowl 39:

Patriots 24 (-7 47.5) vs Eagles 21 ----Dog and the under


In 2007......The under was 11-6 in his games and the Favorites vs Dogs 8-8-1.

In the past 2 years in games were he has reffed his games went 20-12-1 (62.5%) on the UNDER.


good luck

 

[AR182]

got this from another site...


One more Super Bowl system, and one that is much easier to use, has a record of 26-15-2 since the inception of the big game and just involves three steps:


1. Go against any team that did not cover the point spread in their championship game.

2. If both teams covered the spread in the championship games, bet on the team with the highest number of straight up wins entering the Super Bowl.

3. If both teams have the same number of wins, bet on the underdog.

Last year, the system correctly picked the Giants to cover the point spread, as New England did not cover the number in its AFC Championship Game victory over San Diego.

This year the system also picks the Pittsburgh Steelers on the basis of No. 2, as Pittsburgh won 12 games compared to nine for the Cardinals.


good luck

 

[AR182]

i got the following from another site....


-Tails has been the winning side in nine of the last 11 games. The NFC has won the Super Bowl coin toss 11 straight times and 14 of the past 16 games. This is the first year the winner of the toss can defer. Pittsburgh usually always defers if it wins the coin flip.

-The over/under for Sunday's game generally is between 46.5 and 47. Just two of the past nine Super Bowls have had final scores of 48 points or more. Teams shut out in the first half are 0-11 (no Super Bowl has been scoreless at the half). Teams gaining a double-digit lead at any point are 37-1.

-Over the past 13 Super Bowl where there have been two different seeds, the lower seed has covered 12 out of 13 times.

-Teams that score more than 32 points in the Super Bowl are 18-0 straight up.

-Only one team didn?t find the painted grass was the Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl VI, a 24-3 loss to Dallas (the Vikings were held to six points in Super Bowl IX, but that was due to a missed extra point). There has never been a shutout.

-The underdog is 2-1 straight up and against the spread in the three previous Tampa Bay hosted Super Bowls and the under has gone 2-1. The last four Super Bowls have gone under the number as well.

-Super Bowl favorites are 27-15 SU and 23-17-2 ATS. Only seven times has the favorite won the game but failed to cover the number.

-Super Bowl teams scoring first are 27?15; 14?7 with a touchdown, 12?8 with a field goal and 1?0 with a safety.

-The team that has finished the game with the most rushing attempts has won over 70 percent of the time.

-First-time Super Bowl teams are 8-18 straight-up and 9-17 ATS. In the last 11 years there have been seven first-time Super Bowl teams with just the Ravens and Bucs winning.

-This year?s AccuScore forecast has the Steelers winning by an average of 27.1-20.6. Super Bowl teams that score 27 or more points are 24-3-1 ATS. Super Bowl teams that score 20 points or less are just 8-31-1 ATS. An EA Sports simulation had Pittsburgh winning 28-24 with a fourth-quarter rally.

- Arizona is playing in its first Super Bowl. In the other 26 Super Bowls, where a team was appearing in its first one, the first-timer is 8-18.

- Four Super Bowls had two first-timers in them, meaning the first timers went 4-4 SU and ATS. If we remove those numbers from the stat above, first-timers are just 4-14 straight up and 5-12-1 ATS.

- Pointspread numbers from the regular season: 7-point favorites: 18-3 SU, 6.5-point favorites: 9-8 SU, all favorites: 176-79 SU

 

[AR182]

here is an article about the game from the sports illustrated web site...

Bucky Brooks......INSIDE THE NFL

Breaking down Super Bowl XLIII

Super Bowl XLIII is a classic matchup featuring a top-ranked defense against an explosive offense. The Steelers finished the regular season ranked first in nearly every major defensive statistical category, including total defense, rush defense, pass defense and scoring defense. The Cardinals, meanwhile, ranked third in the league in scoring (26.7) and fielded the fourth-best pass attack (292.1).

When Pittsburgh Has the Ball

The Steelers offense is built the strong running of two-time Pro Bowl back Willie Parker. Although injuries limited the fifth-year pro to 791 yards during the regular season, he has started to display the skills that led to three straight seasons with 1,200 or more rushing yards. Parker's speed makes him a threat to score whenever he finds a crease on the perimeter, and the Steelers will relentlessly run him on an assortment of sweeps and stretch plays out of their two-back sets.

With Parker anchoring the rushing attack, the Steelers use a complementary play-action passing game in which Ben Roethlisberger throws on the move on an assortment of bootlegs. Heath Miller and Hines Ward repeatedly find open space in the middle of the field while working free on crossing routes behind the linebackers. When the Steelers opt to use their conventional passing game, they go with an array of bunch formations with Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington closely aligned to limit the Cardinals' ability to jam receivers at the line of scrimmage. Additionally, the cluster-type look generally frees up one of the dangerous receivers over the middle.

Roethlisberger loves to hit Holmes or Ward on time on a variety of curls and dig routes (15 yard square in), but also does an excellent job of improvising until his receivers break free. The majority of the Steelers big plays have been the result of Roethlisberger making big throws after he has fled the pocket, so the Steelers' scramble drill could ultimately result in a game-changing score. On the other hand, inconsistent play along the offensive line led to the Steelers allowing 49 sacks and ranking 22nd in total offense during the regular season.

The Cardinals' defense has been outstanding by focusing on stuffing the run on early downs. With offenses forced to throw from long yardage situations, defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast has used a series of creative coverages to confuse passers. In the past, Pendergast has unveiled an assortment of wrinkles ranging from five-man lines and two-man rushes to distort the timing and rhythm of the offense. While the Cardinals have been in stellar in their conventional 3-4, their frequent use of gimmicks has helped create turnovers during the postseason. They finished the regular season with the fifth-most takeaways (30).

Against the Steelers' running game, the Cardinals will attack the line with eight-man looks with Adrian Wilson hovering in the box as an extra defender. The Pro Bowl safety has a knack for sniffing out ball carriers, and his ability to thump runners in the hole has been instrumental to the team's improved run defense. Darnell Dockett and Antonio Smith must create penetration up front to allow linebackers Karlos Dansby and Gerald Hayes to roam freely. If the Cardinals can win the battle upfront, they will continue their surprising postseason dominance against ground attacks.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie wears the big sombrero as the Cardinals' top corner. He will shadow Ward or Holmes on most downs. His supreme athleticism has helped him win playoff matchups against Atlanta's Roddy White and Carolina's Steve Smith, but his inexperience could hurt against Pittsburgh's savvy route runners, who excel on double moves.

Regardless of how well Rodgers-Cromartie blankets the Steelers' receivers, the Cardinals must find a way to get consistent pressure on Roethlisberger. Though opponents have repeatedly attempted to harass Roethlisberger on blitzes, their inability to get the big guy down has resulted in numerous big plays. The Cardinals would be wise to pressure him up the middle. By forcing Roethlisberger to see the rush in his face, they can force him to throw a few passes up for grabs.

When Arizona Has The Ball

The Cardinals finished the regular season ranked fourth in total offense, but mustered only 73.9 yards on the ground, which ranked last in the league. They have been more explosive during the postseason due to a more balanced attack. Led by a resurgent Edgerrin James, the Cardinals have averaged 111 rushing yards a game in the playoffs. While that isn't overly impressive, the team's commitment to the run (33.3 rushing attempts per game) has prevented defenses from loading up to stop the passing game.

Offensive coordinator Todd Haley has deftly mixed in runs out of pass-heavy formations while also increasing the use of two-back sets. With sledgehammer Terrelle Smith leading the way, James and Tim Hightower have averaged nearly four yards a carry the past three games.

Larry Fitzgerald has been a dominant force during the playoffs, but credit Haley for creating the big play opportunities. Since the beginning of the postseason, Haley has moved around his playmaker to get him favorable matchups. From using him in the slot, to an increased use of tight splits, the Cardinals have made it seemingly impossible for defenders to track Fitzgerald's whereabouts. Plus, the Cardinals have used crossing routes from those alignments to get Fitzgerald open over the middle.

Anquan Boldin still poses a threat as a tremendous runner after the catch, and the Cardinals will frequently use a variety of receiver screens to get him the ball. Against the Steelers, the quick screen will be an effective counter to blitzes. Additionally, crossing routes will pose a problem to the Steelers' zone blitz. The underneath droppers will have a tough time picking up the crossing route from the opposite side. With Boldin's and Fitzgerald's excellent running skills, the Cardinals' short passing game is capable of chewing up chunks of yardage in a hurry.

The Steelers' top-ranked defense bullies opponents behind their dominant front seven. Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith take turns occupying double teams so that the Steelers' outstanding linebacker corps can chase freely against the run or pass. Outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are lauded for their pass rush skills, but their ability to stack the edge makes it difficult for opponents to find running room on the perimeter.

With opponents finding it impossible to make headway on the ground, the Steelers overwhelm one-dimensional offenses with their exotic pressures. Harrison and Woodley crash off the edges, but defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau likes bringing an additional rusher from a random location to catch the offense off-guard. His ability to attack the weakness in an opponent's blocking scheme is unrivaled and makes the Steelers' pass rush a difficult matchup.

However, the Cardinals pose a challenge due to their ability to spread the field from a variety of spread or empty formations. This strategy makes it easy for Warner to identify "hot" rushers and gives him the opportunity to get the ball out quickly. The Steelers must anticipate the Cardinals' use of the empty set, and do a great job of holding their disguise until the last possible moment. If they can keep Warner from deciphering the rush prior to the snap, they will have a better chance of disrupting his rhythm.

Additionally, the Steelers will need to come up with a solid strategy for dealing with Fitzgerald. The Pro Bowl receiver has single-handedly carried the Cardinals' passing game, despite facing double teams on a regular basis. The Steelers rarely use man coverage, but may be forced to use some form of combination coverage to keep Fitzgerald under wraps. LeBeau likes to assign Ike Taylor to top targets, so expect to see Taylor shadow Fitzgerald for most of the game, with a safety over top. Though the tactic will leave Boldin and third wideout Steve Breaston in single coverage, the Steelers' priority will be on limiting Fitzgerald's impact.

The X Factor

Ken Whisenhunt's and Russ Grimm's experience as Steelers coaches. The duo's extensive knowledge of Dick LeBeau's defense is invaluable. Knowing his tendencies will allow them to craft a game plan that attacks the weaknesses of the defense. Though LeBeau's defense has continued to evolve in the two years since their departure, they still have a great deal of familiarity with his pressure package. Look for the Cardinals to aggressively attack the Steelers' defense during their first 15 plays. A quick start will get Warner and Co. off to a good rhythm, and put pressure on the Steelers' offense to perform from behind.

good luck

 

[AR182]

Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems

Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.

Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.

The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.

The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco?s rout win over San Diego in the ?95 game.

The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget?Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year?s game.

The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record?0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).

Over/Under Trends

There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.

Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.
The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.

The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically.

In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.


good luck