Ok, not sure what value this post has as I have been silent throughout most of this football season. Actually, you all are lucky I have been silent as its been a rough football season, unfortunately.
However, I find this play particularly strong.
Under 44 in the Super Bowl.
I think you've got a few things going in favor of this. But please keep in mind my analysis of the previous playoff games has been borderline at best. Especially with Tampa -- I didn't expect them to put on the offensive output that they did against Philly. And even though the game could have turned out close minus that pick, there was really no question that TB had a superior offensive punch.
Anyway, to this play.
I see a few possibilities happening in the Super Bowl. All of them point towards a good under play, in my opinion.
1) Raiders pass the hell out of it short and beat TB. In this scenario, you've got a passing team that uses it as a running game. Ball control despite not running. Also, it didn't seem like the Raiders really ran to control the ball tonight. Somewhat surprising, actually. So I forsee more running on their half because they were really just playing with fire --- Tennessee had so much more time of possession and had a couple opp's to strike. Either way, I see Raiders controlling the ball. TB may score some, but their drives should be long and roughly 8-10 plays so they're going to take time off the clock. Good situation for under.
2) Raiders blow out TB. Well, Oak still has the chance to run the ball and waste time. Good situation.
3) TB blows out Oak. Same as #2. Either team with a good lead has the manpower to run the time off at a pretty good clip. I like my chances.
4) TB wins a close one. I don't see TB putting up more than 24 points in this one under any circumstances. I think the only way they blow a team out is by shutting down the opposing offense. In the past two playoff games, both unders looked doomed early on, but once TB got a control of the pace (not necessarily the score) they were able to play field position and whatnot. And even though Philly went over, it could have gone under just as easy with a break here or there.... and that's a low total to go under -- so you need all those breaks.
5) some other factors favor the under --- TB might not score much at all -- even so, their defense has a lot of pride and play for a full 4 qtrs. 6) Brad Johnson gets hurt. Then all hell might break loose.
Anyway, I really like the under here and will get it on the 44 which adds a nice push on a 24-20 game.
GL
However, I find this play particularly strong.
Under 44 in the Super Bowl.
I think you've got a few things going in favor of this. But please keep in mind my analysis of the previous playoff games has been borderline at best. Especially with Tampa -- I didn't expect them to put on the offensive output that they did against Philly. And even though the game could have turned out close minus that pick, there was really no question that TB had a superior offensive punch.
Anyway, to this play.
I see a few possibilities happening in the Super Bowl. All of them point towards a good under play, in my opinion.
1) Raiders pass the hell out of it short and beat TB. In this scenario, you've got a passing team that uses it as a running game. Ball control despite not running. Also, it didn't seem like the Raiders really ran to control the ball tonight. Somewhat surprising, actually. So I forsee more running on their half because they were really just playing with fire --- Tennessee had so much more time of possession and had a couple opp's to strike. Either way, I see Raiders controlling the ball. TB may score some, but their drives should be long and roughly 8-10 plays so they're going to take time off the clock. Good situation for under.
2) Raiders blow out TB. Well, Oak still has the chance to run the ball and waste time. Good situation.
3) TB blows out Oak. Same as #2. Either team with a good lead has the manpower to run the time off at a pretty good clip. I like my chances.
4) TB wins a close one. I don't see TB putting up more than 24 points in this one under any circumstances. I think the only way they blow a team out is by shutting down the opposing offense. In the past two playoff games, both unders looked doomed early on, but once TB got a control of the pace (not necessarily the score) they were able to play field position and whatnot. And even though Philly went over, it could have gone under just as easy with a break here or there.... and that's a low total to go under -- so you need all those breaks.
5) some other factors favor the under --- TB might not score much at all -- even so, their defense has a lot of pride and play for a full 4 qtrs. 6) Brad Johnson gets hurt. Then all hell might break loose.
Anyway, I really like the under here and will get it on the 44 which adds a nice push on a 24-20 game.
GL
