Last week 12 games and this week for now I stand at 11 games.
1* Over 67.5 Washington State @ Nevada
1* Ball State +17
1* Northern Illinois +7
1* Temple +3
1* Arkansas State +16
1* Mississippi State -27.5
1* Stanford -2.5
1* Vanderbilt +20
1* Michigan State +12
1* UL Lafayette -14.5
1* Oklahoma -24.5
1* Colorado State +10.5
Hope to be in and out with some analysis.
Dawg
As of Friday 5:45 My EV on these games is 5-3-3, and so let me get some ramblings going on here.
Starting with Ball State getting 17 and now that line has gone to 20 who did lose to Iowa 45-0 in their last meeting a few years back. However the game was before coach Lembo got to campus. QB Mann got the season off to a good start vs Colgate going 20 for 32 with a running game of over 311 yards for a balanced attack. Iowa is a lot of folks dark horse to win their division of the B10, but they have instate rival Iowa State on deck, and showed that they're defense was still vulnerable to big plays vs. N.Iowa. Since 2011 the Hawkeyes are 6-9 ATS as home favs while Ball State is 8-4 as road dogs.
Can some value on Northern Illinois per the VIG which is now +7 -120. The Huskies post Jordan Lynch era got off to a nice start vs. poor Presbytrain while NW was slow out of the gates in their home loss to Cal. Over the years fading home teams off home losses during their first two weeks of the regular season has seen a nice profit of 78% winners take place going 38-10 ATS when fading said home team. UNI has some nice skill players back and will use a two QB system which worked fine last week. NW is a little raw on the offensive line which means I like the Huskies to stay within the number here. UNI is 12-6-1 ATS away from home since 2011, and NW is 4-10-1 off an ATS loss since 11'.
Really like the Temple QB P.J. Walker who got the Owls off to a nice start last week at Vanderbilt. Meanwhile NAVY nearly pulled the upset giving OHST fits for much of the game. Temple held Vandy to 4.4 yards/play in their contest last week, and Navy did allow 7.6 yards per play. This one should be a close game and the Midshipmen 7-11 their L/18 as favs going 1-4 as road favs since 2011.
I'll go the well another time in fading Tennessee here in week 2 as I clearly overlooked Butch Jones' ability to get his team prepared and pumped for UTST. However this week they have Oklahoma on deck and these Vols while talented are still very yong and inexperienced. All Arky State does is win as they lost another coach after last years run and through the span of 41 games they've gone thru 7 HC and have gone 28-13. They have a nice solid defensive back set, and I'm looking for them to bend but not break verses a respected Tennessee team, but one w/ a trip to Norman on deck. ARST is 8-3 as road dogs, and TN is 1-8-1 ATS off a spread win the L/3Y.
I won with Mississippi State last week as they rolled Southern Mississippi, and now face a 1-0 UAB team will finish near last in they're conference. A Blazer teams who's defense isn't ready for this kind of pace that will be coming at them. Yes UAB rolled Troy last week, but the Trojans are far from being good. I'll just play it easy and stick with the Bulldogs here.
I may do more later or in the morning!
Best Of Fortune to All no matter who you play!
Dawg
