I still put in the work for these, but I've gotta keep the write-ups short here as I've been coerced into obligations.
Got some good breaks on the under action yesterday.
---------------------------------
giants@Reds 50-50 (Foppert@Harang)
--Harang is a tough call, and I don't rate him too high coming in here, but I think that with the A's staff they could just afford to give up on him early - guy's not that bad, and Foppert hasn't shown very much; Giants in a minor offensive swoon, and Reds seem pumped up by there recent throwing in of the towel, so to speak; PV+10 on Reds at +150; total looks even at 10
PLAYING:
Reds +150
1/1.5
Mets 53 (Tomko@Seo)
--mostly based on Tomko's mediocrity, including poor work vs Mets; Seo has good stuff and probably just needs some more experience, and maybe some defense behind him; Cards bats given huge edge here, but they didn't hit Trachsel that well and are still missing heart-and-soul Edmonds; PV+7 on Mets at +135; total looks a bit low (over 9 56%, PV+3 at -110)
PLAYING:
Mets +135
1/1.35
d'backs 54 (Batista@Estes)
--Batista has been great, but club has still lost 3 of his past 4 starts, scoring a total of 3 runs for him over his past 2; Cubs very tempting at price as their offense SHOULD be better now, and Estes has shown some signs of life; both starters have been battered by the opposition, but Batista has had the worst of it facing Cubs (including 0-2 w/10.30 era ... the rest of his 0-4, 7.03 @Wrigley includes a brutal stint he had with Cubs in '97); ugly game; system tells me slight leanage on an under (9), but everything else suggests otherwise
Braves 60 (Ashby@Hampton)
--Dodgers best chance is vs lefty, and Ashby was great for 7 in his last (vs struggling D'Backs, but IN 'zona), so price looks high at -160; total looks low (over 9 57% PV+4 at -110)
Phillies 74 (Peavy@Wolf)
--been waiting for this one ... maybe Phils hurlers will see if they can toss 3 shutouts in this series? (Padilla Sunday); Pads even worse vs lefties; Peavy looked great in 2 starts vs M's, at the end of June, but has been pounded over his past 4; like the under (ump doesn't hurt, either) here, 57% on the 8 would give PV+7 at the +100 available now, but I can't afford both ways here; PV+9 at -185; Wolf & Co. burned me and others in his last start (I think he allowed 3 in the first, was it, before putting a bunch of zeros on the board), at -145 to open (went to -160 or so), as they lost to Dempster, @Reds, in 10; line is now -200, but methinks the runline (+100 or +105 ... likely to plummet to -110) should be safe ... to late for that here
PLAYING:
Phillies -185
3.7/2
Marlins 59 (Robertson@Pavano)
--Robertson and Astros pen have combined to be great, but Marlins have been hot (save last night), and slug lefties MUCH better; Astros have the bats but have been in a bit of a swoon; big question here is Pavano's performance; total looks even at 8.5 (ump Craft hot for unders); not enough at PV+4 for the -120, for me (go Phils!)
did I say shorter? ... frig ...
rockies 54 (Jennings@Meadows)
--game is a tough call; Jennings is Just Alright
Expos 66 (Manning@Vazquez)
--another tough call, but Vazquez should be safe; price looks even for money and runlines; the 56% on the under 8.5 (PV+3 at -110) I got looks meaningless based on X-Manning
--anyone get the Doobies reference?
(2)Phillies 64 (Roa@Silva)
--BP should be in better shape for Philly here; edge to Silva, pen, bats, turf, shlameezal, shlamozel ... PV+3 at -155, but I'd try the runline if I was gonna play here, PV+6 at +130 at a maybe generous 50%; got a meaningless 'even' on the total at 9 ... Roa and Silva? ... gimme a break - farm-bettors will probably want to wait and see what happens in game 1 before signing any papers for this total
chit ... is that JUST the NL ... I gotta go brush my teeth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The day destroys the night
Night divides the day
Try to run
Try to hide
Break on through to the other side
(Jimmy.M.-The Doors)
Got some good breaks on the under action yesterday.
---------------------------------
giants@Reds 50-50 (Foppert@Harang)
--Harang is a tough call, and I don't rate him too high coming in here, but I think that with the A's staff they could just afford to give up on him early - guy's not that bad, and Foppert hasn't shown very much; Giants in a minor offensive swoon, and Reds seem pumped up by there recent throwing in of the towel, so to speak; PV+10 on Reds at +150; total looks even at 10
PLAYING:
Reds +150
1/1.5
Mets 53 (Tomko@Seo)
--mostly based on Tomko's mediocrity, including poor work vs Mets; Seo has good stuff and probably just needs some more experience, and maybe some defense behind him; Cards bats given huge edge here, but they didn't hit Trachsel that well and are still missing heart-and-soul Edmonds; PV+7 on Mets at +135; total looks a bit low (over 9 56%, PV+3 at -110)
PLAYING:
Mets +135
1/1.35
d'backs 54 (Batista@Estes)
--Batista has been great, but club has still lost 3 of his past 4 starts, scoring a total of 3 runs for him over his past 2; Cubs very tempting at price as their offense SHOULD be better now, and Estes has shown some signs of life; both starters have been battered by the opposition, but Batista has had the worst of it facing Cubs (including 0-2 w/10.30 era ... the rest of his 0-4, 7.03 @Wrigley includes a brutal stint he had with Cubs in '97); ugly game; system tells me slight leanage on an under (9), but everything else suggests otherwise
Braves 60 (Ashby@Hampton)
--Dodgers best chance is vs lefty, and Ashby was great for 7 in his last (vs struggling D'Backs, but IN 'zona), so price looks high at -160; total looks low (over 9 57% PV+4 at -110)
Phillies 74 (Peavy@Wolf)
--been waiting for this one ... maybe Phils hurlers will see if they can toss 3 shutouts in this series? (Padilla Sunday); Pads even worse vs lefties; Peavy looked great in 2 starts vs M's, at the end of June, but has been pounded over his past 4; like the under (ump doesn't hurt, either) here, 57% on the 8 would give PV+7 at the +100 available now, but I can't afford both ways here; PV+9 at -185; Wolf & Co. burned me and others in his last start (I think he allowed 3 in the first, was it, before putting a bunch of zeros on the board), at -145 to open (went to -160 or so), as they lost to Dempster, @Reds, in 10; line is now -200, but methinks the runline (+100 or +105 ... likely to plummet to -110) should be safe ... to late for that here
PLAYING:
Phillies -185
3.7/2
Marlins 59 (Robertson@Pavano)
--Robertson and Astros pen have combined to be great, but Marlins have been hot (save last night), and slug lefties MUCH better; Astros have the bats but have been in a bit of a swoon; big question here is Pavano's performance; total looks even at 8.5 (ump Craft hot for unders); not enough at PV+4 for the -120, for me (go Phils!)
did I say shorter? ... frig ...
rockies 54 (Jennings@Meadows)
--game is a tough call; Jennings is Just Alright
Expos 66 (Manning@Vazquez)
--another tough call, but Vazquez should be safe; price looks even for money and runlines; the 56% on the under 8.5 (PV+3 at -110) I got looks meaningless based on X-Manning
--anyone get the Doobies reference?
(2)Phillies 64 (Roa@Silva)
--BP should be in better shape for Philly here; edge to Silva, pen, bats, turf, shlameezal, shlamozel ... PV+3 at -155, but I'd try the runline if I was gonna play here, PV+6 at +130 at a maybe generous 50%; got a meaningless 'even' on the total at 9 ... Roa and Silva? ... gimme a break - farm-bettors will probably want to wait and see what happens in game 1 before signing any papers for this total
chit ... is that JUST the NL ... I gotta go brush my teeth
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The day destroys the night
Night divides the day
Try to run
Try to hide
Break on through to the other side
(Jimmy.M.-The Doors)
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